From Logs to Mining: Political settlements and capabilities

in Solomon Islands

Doug PorterSession on

Land, Resources and State FormationThursday 19 June

No strong pacting, between economic and political elites – major cleavages, weak, and ephemeral deals

Co-production arrangements- selectively guarantee functionality, but don’t lead to more commitment from locals

Consequently:

• Weak grasp

• Weak reach

Not oriented to investing capabilities in• Regulating market transactions• Secure urban rights/tenure, etc• Equitable wealth redistribution

…… Durable, but no-one believes public authority is capable, so its crisis prone

Logging and outlook

• 70% exports, most revenue, most cash jobs

• Single most reliable predictor of village conflicts: social order, ‘social disintegration’ (public authority)

• Projected 8%/year decline “log supply constraints”.

• Surge in interest in mining: Choisuel, Guadalcanal, Vella Levalla, New Georgia

Outlook

Logging/Mining: key features of similarity and difference

The nature of the industry:

• Logging: numerous, dispersed, small area, short duration

• Mining: few, concentrated, large footprint, capital intensive, long duration

More potential sites of contest, higher stakes, over longer period, by more politically savvy operators

Nature of public authority in relation to mining

Competition intensifies: multiple local sites, island, province, national

State more involved in ‘community’ – as owner of mineral assets

Investor more involved in ‘state’ – in security, service, dispute regulation

Centripetal: concentrates political contest around central ‘grasping’

Centrifugal: fragmentation of claimants for provisioning

New ‘forms’ of organisation/identity: kastom, state, hybrid

That are both fragmented & coalescing, and violent & generative

Around what functions of public authority are contests likely to occur? ORWhere are both ‘grasping’ and ‘reaching’ capabilities most likely to be needed?

1. Landowner identification and representation in deal making (us/them; you/me)

2. Capturing wealth generated, dealing with volatility, intergenerational equity (now/later)

3. Wealth distribution: ‘direct’ vs. ’indirect’; intergovernmental fiscal sharing (‘derivation’ vs. ‘equalization’)

Under what conditions might these capabilities be created?

“A fragmented, layered political settlement, durable, but crisis prone”. • Massive coproduction of capability, through external-

national ‘partnerships’.

…. One condition would be Expose the fiction of ‘capacity’ building in situ (mining ministry, finance/economic governance, inter-govt relations)

– Cross country alliances (PNG/Bville, Timor, West Africa – CSO, g7+, etc)

– Supra-national regulatory capacity? (tax/transfer pricing, corporate performance, courts)

Metropolitan neighbors: Getting from “liability” to “obligation”