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From: Receptionist, HQ Sent: Wednesday, May 24, 2017 7:21 AM To: Law, Diane (CONTR) <[email protected]> Subject: Parker Davis Project AOP Meeting: Conference Bridge Confirmation
Conference Bridge Information
Purpose: Parker Davis Project AOP Meeting
Number of Participants: 18
Start/End Date and Time: Wednesday, May 31, 2017, 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM (MST)
To access conference call dial 1-888-283-2963, when prompted dial your conference code (56373) and then hit the pound sign (#), then press 1. When prompted, say your name and then hit the pound (#) again. If you have any questions or need more lines before conference is in session please call the HQ Operator at 720-962-7000. Please access the conference at the scheduled time to avoid the conference software deleting your call. Also, if you have to break for lunch or anytime longer than 15 minutes, please leave at least one phone dialed into the conference to avoid the call deleting. * *If you need changes to be made to the bridge or if you need to CANCEL, please call the HQ Operator ASAP. Changes and cancelation CAN NOT be made within 30 minutes of the start time* *
Subject, Office or event
ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN PRESENTATION
Parker-Davis Project
Updates For Hydrology &
Annual Operating Plans
May 31, 2017
Subject, Office or event
Agenda
2
• Introduction
• Hydrology Update
• FY 2016 AOP Estimates Presented 5/12/16 & Final FY 2016 Results
• Status of FY 2017 Annual Operating Plan
• Preliminary FY 2018 Annual Operating Plan
• FY 2018 Purchase Power Estimates
.62 MAF
1.81 MAF
26.12 MAF
24.32 MAF
3
Lower Basin Colorado River Management Objectives
• Provide flood control and river regulation
• Meet water demands• Generate hydropower• Enhance and maintain
ecosystem habitat• Recover and protect
endangered species• Provide recreation
4
Water Year Snowpack as of May 25, 2017
5
Snowpack peaked at 126% of median on March 10
43% of total average seasonal accumulation
Subject, Office or event
Hydrology UpdateActual WY 2016 Results &WY 2017 Current Forecast
WY 2016 WY 2017
Lake Powell (maf) % (maf) %
Unreg Inflow (Norm=12.1) 9.6 79% 12.9 107%Apr-Jul Unreg Inflow
(Norm=7.2) 6.6 92% 8.8 123%
Storage (Max=24.3) 12.8 53% 15.7 65%Releases to Lake Mead
(Norm=8.23) 9.0 109% 9.0 109%(ft.) (ft.)
Max Lake Elev. 3620 (Jun) 3642 (Jul)
Min Lake Elev. 3592 (Apr) 3596 (Jan)
Year-End Lake Elev. 3611 3638
6
Lake Powell & Lake MeadOperational Diagrams and Current Conditions
10.19
5/30/17
3,618 13.54
5/30/17
5/30/17 5/30/17
1,082
7
Subject, Office or event 8
Subject, Office or event 9
1,082 ft10.19 maf (39% of Capacity)
895 ft
Current Lake Mead Conditions1,219.64 ft 26.12 maf
1,145 ft
1,075 ft
16.2 maf
Dead Pool
138 ft
Shortage Conditions
Surplus Conditions
Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions
As of May 30, 2017 10
9.6 maf
860 ft New SNWA Intake
(Presently)
Min Power Pool950 ft
132 ft
2.0 maf
0.0 maf
Subject, Office or event
WY 2016 WY 2017
Lake Mead (maf) % (maf) %
Side Inflow (Norm=1.3) 0.8 61% 1.04 80%
Storage (Max=26.1) 9.6 37% 10.1 39%
Downstream Releases 9.3 -- 8.8 --
(ft.) (ft.)
Max Lake Elev. 1084 (Feb) 1090 (Feb)
Min Lake Elev. 1072 (Jun) 1076 (Oct)
Year-End Lake Elev. 1075 1081
11
Hydrology UpdateActual WY 2016 Results & WY 2017 Current Forecast
Colorado River Basin Storage(as of May 30, 2016)
*Total system storage was 29.21 maf or 49% this time last year
12
ReservoirPercent
FullStorage
(MAF)Elevation
(Feet)
Lake Powell 56% 13.54 3,618
Lake Mead 39% 10.19 1,082
Total System Storage*
52% 31.61 NA
13
Lower Basin Surplus & Shortage through 2026
1 The projections for 2017 are based on 30 simulations of December 31, 2016 conditions from the Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM).2 For the period from 2018-2026, each of the 30 projected initial conditions from MTOM were coupled with 107 hydrologic inflow sequences, based on resampling of the observed natural flow record from 1906-2012, for a total of 3,210 traces analyzed in the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS).
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Percent of Traces with Lower Basin Surplus or ShortageProjections from the April 2017 MTOM/CRSS Run1,2,3,4
Shortage of Any Amount Surplus of Any Amount
Subject, Office or event
WY 2018 Lower Basin Hydrology Forecast(Based on May 2017 24-month Study)
14
Powell % Mead %
Operating Crit.
1/1/18 Elev (ft)
Upper ElevBalancing
Tier3633.9
Norm / Intent Created Surplus1080.2
Unreg Inflow (maf) 10.9 90 .76 58
Releases (maf) 10.9 132 9.7 --
EOY Storage (maf) 15.3 63 11.2 43
Max Elev (ft) 3643 (jun) 1093 (sep)Min Elev (ft) 3621(apr) 1080 (nov)
EOY Elev (ft) 3634 1093
Subject, Office or event
FY2016 AOP (presented 5/12/16)
Parker - Davis ProjectEstimates GWhActuals GWh
15
+ values represent energy from PDP- values represent energy to PDP
Prior Year
BalanceOCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP TOTAL
Resources
Parker Generation 32.3 27.1 21.9 22.269 38.103 48.9 48.391 43.39 45.3 43.6 36.3 33.6 441.2
MWD's Parker Share -16 -13.38 -10.84 -9.874 -17.59 -24.45 -24.2 -21.7 -22.65 -21.8 -18.15 -16.8 -217.4
Davis Generation 81.6 72.5 65.1 71.9 86.3 117.9 124.99 116.4 108.4 101.7 89.9 93.5 1130.2
Net Generation 97.9 86.2 76.2 84.3 106.8 142.4 149.2 138.1 131.1 123.5 108.1 110.3 1353.9
Other PDP Credits 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Purchases for PDP 0.9 0.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 1.2 1.7 5.7 7.6 14.1 21.2 17.1 72.0
Total Resources: 99.2 86.4 77.7 85.5 107.1 143.5 150.8 143.8 138.6 137.6 129.2 127.4 1426.9
Loads
Total PDP Firm Load 83.1 79.1 79.0 80.8 74.6 147.4 145.6 149.4 146.1 151.5 150.1 144.3 1431.1
Energy Bank Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Excess 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Surplus Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PDP / BA Deviation 1.1 0.1 3.3 7.2 3.5 4.1 -3.9 -11.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 0.0
Hoover Bank 3.1 16.0 4.0 -8.6 1.1 28.4 0.0 17.0 -5.3 -7.0 -13.1 -19.7 -15.9 0.0
Total Loads: 99.2 86.4 77.7 85.5 107.1 143.5 150.8 143.8 138.6 137.6 129.2 127.4 1426.9
Subject, Office or event
+ values represent energy from PDP- values represent energy to PDP
FY2016 AOP Final ResultsParker - Davis Project
16May 31, 2017
PriorYear
BalanceOCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP TOTAL
Resources
Parker Generation 32.3 27.1 21.9 22.269 38.103 48.9 48.40 45.1 44.8 43.7 40.2 34.7 447.5
MWD's Parker Share -16 -13.38 -10.84 -9.874 -17.59 -23.09 -24 -22.33 -22.17 -21.63 -19.9 -17.17 -218.0
Davis Generation 81.6 72.5 65.1 71.9 86.3 117.9 125.4 115.5 107.4 103.3 91.6 90.5 1129.0
Net Generation 97.9 86.2 76.2 84.3 106.8 143.7 149.8 138.3 130.0 125.4 111.9 108.0 1358.5
Other PDP Credits 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
Purchases for PDP 0.9 0.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 1.2 1.7 7.2 9.6 13.9 10.8 13.3 61.1
Total Resources: 99.2 86.4 77.7 85.5 107.1 144.9 151.5 145.5 139.6 139.4 122.8 121.4 1421.0
Loads
Total PDP Firm Load 83.1 79.1 79.0 80.8 74.6 147.4 145.8 150.0 146.6 152.0 150.7 144.9 1434.1
Energy Bank Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Excess 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Surplus Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PDP / BA Deviation 1.1 0.1 3.2 7.2 3.5 4.1 -2.5 -10.9 4.2 6.6 -2.0 -5.6 -9.4 -0.3
Hoover Bank 3.1 16.0 4.0 -8.6 1.1 28.4 0.0 16.6 -8.7 -13.6 -10.7 -22.4 -14.1 -8.6
Total Loads: 99.2 86.4 77.7 85.5 107.1 144.9 151.5 145.5 139.6 139.4 122.8 121.4 1421.0
All Values is GWhActual
https://www.wapa.gov/regions/DSW/PowerMarketing/Pages/power-marketing.aspx
TOTAL FY2016 PURCHASE POWER COSTS$3,644,742.93
ENERGY COSTS$2,457,442.53
RESERVES COSTS$1,187,300.40
Subject, Office or event
Status FY2017 AOP
0
50
100
150
200
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SepGWh
PDP Net Generation Current Estimate05/12/16 EstimateActual
Current Est. Total Gen 1276.9 GWh05/12/16 Est. Total Gen 1335.5 GWh
17
Subject, Office or event
Current Status FY 2017 AOPEstimates GWhParker - Davis Project
18May 31, 2017
+ values represent energy from PDP- values represent energy to PDP
Prior Year
Balance
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP TOTAL
Resources
Parker Generation 32.8 26 17.9 16.2 27.9 48.8 51.3 42.88 43.45 42.6 37.3 34.6 421.7
MWD's Parker Share -16.22 -12.86 -8.804 -7.193 -13.95 -24.4 -25.65 -21.44 -21.73 -21.3 -18.65 -17.3 -209.5
Davis Generation 79.3 71.1 61.4 54.6 63.8 109.6 131 108.6 101.88 96 92 95.4 1064.7
Net Generation 95.9 84.2 70.5 63.6 77.8 134.0 156.7 130.0 123.6 117.3 110.7 112.7 1276.9
Other PDP Credits 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
Purchases for PDP 3.8 1.5 10.1 16.5 2.0 9.4 3.1 15.5 17.8 26.7 30.7 24.7 161.9
Total Resources: 99.9 85.9 80.8 80.2 80.7 143.5 159.8 145.5 141.4 144.0 141.4 137.4 1440.5
Loads
Total PDP Firm Load 83.1 79.2 79.1 80.9 74.7 147.5 145.8 149.4 146.1 151.5 150.1 144.3 1431.5
Energy Bank Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Excess 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Surplus Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PDP / BA Deviation -0.3 7.0 5.8 13.5 2.8 3.2 -14.4 12.8 -3.7 -4.5 -7.2 -8.4 -6.6 0.0
Hoover Bank -8.6 9.8 0.9 -11.8 -3.4 2.8 10.4 1.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0
Total Loads: 99.9 85.9 80.8 80.2 80.7 143.5 159.8 145.5 141.4 144.0 141.4 137.4 1440.5
Actual GWh
TOTAL FY2017 PURCHASE POWER COSTS$7,720,551.58
ENERGY COSTS$6,373,000.54
RESERVES COSTS$1,347,551.04
https://www.wapa.gov/regions/DSW/PowerMarketing/Pages/power-marketing.aspx
Subject, Office or event
USBR Generation Projections
0.025.050.075.0
100.0125.0150.0175.0200.0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
GW
h
Parker-Davis Generation10-Yr Avg20172018
19
(2017: Actual Oct – Apr)
Subject, Office or event 20
Preliminary FY 2018 AOP
• No PDP Excess Energy or Surplus Sales Expected
• A total of 9,523 MWh’s of FES exchange requests will be accommodated through the Resource Integration Exchange Program (Stage 1 PDP & PDP)
• An additional 284 MWh’s of FES exchange requests will be accommodated through the Resource Integration Exchange Program (Stage 2 PDP & BCP)
• Resource Integration Exchange Program has a net zero impact on energy obligation for PDP or BCP
Subject, Office or event
Preliminary FY 2018 AOPEstimates GWhParker - Davis Project
21May 31, 2017
+ values represent energy from PDP- values represent energy to PDP
Prior Year
Balance
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP TOTAL
Resources
Parker Generation 32.4 26.6 22.1 24 32.5 47.4 50.1 41.8 44 41.4 37.2 32.9 432.4
MWD's Parker Share -16.2 -13.3 -11.05 -12 -16.25 -23.7 -25.05 -20.9 -22 -20.7 -18.6 -16.45 -216.2
Davis Generation 93 80.8 72.9 76.7 79.2 120.1 133.2 115 104.4 97.3 90.4 93.5 1156.5
Net Generation 109.2 94.1 84.0 88.7 95.5 143.8 158.3 135.9 126.4 118.0 109.0 110.0 1372.7
Other PDP Credits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Purchases for PDP 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 5.3 7.6 12.6 15.3 12.9 55.9
Total Resources: 109.2 94.1 84.0 88.7 95.5 146.0 158.3 141.2 134.0 130.6 124.3 122.8 1428.6
Loads
Total PDP Firm Load 82.6 78.9 80.2 79.7 73.7 146.9 145.2 149.3 146.3 151.5 150.1 144.3 1428.6
Energy Bank Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Excess 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Surplus Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PDP / BA Deviation 0.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.8 2.0 -1.8 -3.1 -5.7 -7.2 -5.9 0.0
Hoover Bank 0.0 22.6 11.2 -0.1 5.0 17.8 -2.7 11.0 -6.4 -9.2 -15.2 -18.6 -15.6 0.0
Total Loads: 109.2 94.1 84.0 88.7 95.5 146.0 158.3 141.2 134.0 130.6 124.3 122.8 1428.6
TOTAL FY2018 PURCHASE POWER COSTS$3,140,126.15
ENERGY COSTS$2,078,529.35
RESERVES COSTS$1,061,596.80
Subject, Office or event
FY 2018 Purchase Power
22
• Projected Purchases:• Current Projections Indicate The Need For Purchases
Of 55.9 GWhs in FY2018
• Cost Of Purchased Power Is Estimated to be $3.1M
for Energy and Reserves
Subject, Office or event
Contact Information
John Paulsen – (602) 605-2557
Xavier Gonzalez – (602) 605–2678
Email: [email protected]
23
Website: https://www.wapa.gov/regions/DSW/PowerMarketing/Pages/power-marketing.aspx