from the desk of deborah weinswig€¦ · deborah weinswig, managing director, fgrt 2...

1DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

December22,2017

ChartoftheWeek StatoftheWeek

Deborah Weinswig

Managing Director

FGRT

[email protected]

US: 917.655.6790

HK: 852.6119.1779

CN: 86.186.1420.3016

December22,2017

1) Thisweek’snote“FromtheDeskofDeborahWeinswig”isthesecondoftwowherewelookbackattheretailyearinreview.Thisweek,wediscuss2017’snotableretailcollaborations.

2) TargetagreedtopurchasegrocerydeliverystartupShiptfor$550million,steppingupitschallengetoAmazonbyspeedingtherolloutofsame-dayshipping.Theall-cashdealwillletTargetcustomersordergroceriesandothergoodsonline,andthenhavetheitemssentdirectlytotheirdoorsfromnearbyTargetstores.

3) InNovember,UKretailsalesgrewby4.8%yearoveryear,wellaheadofinflationandrecoveringfromsoftgrowthinOctober,accordingtotheOfficeforNationalStatistics.Groceryretailersandelectricalgoodsspecialistsenjoyedrobustyear-over-yeargrowth,owingtoBlackFridaysales.

4) AmazonlikelydoubleditssalestobecomethebiggestInternetretailerinMexicothisyear,helpingtogrowthecountry’snascente-commercemarketbyathird,accordingtoareportbymarketresearchfirmEuromonitorInternational.

DowJonesIndustrialAverageandFTSE100Index:MorethanaSantaRally

TheDowJonesIndustrialAveragereachedrecordhighsthisweek,closingat24,792onDecember18.IntheUK,theFTSE100Indexclosedat7,537onDecember18—closetoitsrecordhigh. • AccordingtoMastercardSpendingPulse,USretail

spendingclimbedby3.6%yearoveryearintheperiodfromNovember1throughDecember9.

• ThisincreaseisinlinewithFGRT’sforecastofa3%–4%year-over-yearincreaseinspendingovertheentireholidayperiod.

Source:MastercardSpendingPulse

3.6%

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

DowJonesIndustrialAverage(LedAxis) FTSE100(RightAxis)

Source:S&PCapitalIQ


December22,2017

FromtheDeskofDeborahWeinswig

ReviewingRetailin2017,Part2:CollaborationsAsretail’sfoundationsshiftedin2017,legacyretailerssoughtoutcollaborationsdesignedtodriveshoppertraffic,buildtheirappealtodemographicssuchasmillennialsandmaximizethevalueoftheirrealestateholdings.ThistrendwasparticularlyapparentintheUS,butwealsosawEuropeanandAsianretailersenterpartnershipstotapnewtechnologiesanddevelopcross-channelofferings.Thisisthesecondoftwonoteswherewereviewtheyearinretail;lastweek,wediscussed2017’snotableretailmergers,acquisitionsandinvestments.

Retailer-RetailerCollaborationsWesawalargenumberofcollaborationsbetweenretailersthisyear,andtheseservedamultitudeofpurposes.

PiggybackingonAmazon’sgrowth:BothSearsandKohl’spartneredwithAmazonin2017.InJuly,SearsbegansellingprivatelabelappliancesonAmazon.com,anditaddedprivatelabelcarbatteriesandtirestotheofferinginDecember.Inamorestrikingpartnership,Kohl’sagreedtotwotie-upswithAmazon.First,Kohl’sstartedsellingAmazon’stechproductsindedicatedin-storedepartments.Later,itbeganusingitsstoresasdrop-offpointsforreturnsbyAmazoncustomers.TheKohl’s-Amazonpartnershipraisestwoquestions,neitherofwhichhasbeenansweredsofar:WillotherretailersfollowKohl’sincollaboratingwithAmazon?AndwillthiscollaborationofferKohl’ssomeimmunityfromAmazon’simpactonUSdepartmentstores?

Implementingnewtechnologies:InNovember,FrenchgroceryretailerGroupeCasinobecamethefirstnon-UKretailertolicenseOcado’shardwareandsoftwareforuseinhigh-techonlinegroceryfulfillmentcenters.Thiswasalong-awaitedagreement.BackinFebruary,AlibabaGroupsignedapartnershipwithChineseretailerBailianGrouptodevelopnewretailtechnologies,launchnewcross-channelretailservices,improvesupplychainmanagementandadopttechnologiestoimprovecustomerservicecapabilities.

Tappinghigh-growthmarkets:InAugust,WalmartandJD.comannouncedthattheywereexpandingtheirstrategicpartnershipinChinabyfurtherintegratingtheirplatforms,supplychainsandcustomerresources.Theretailersalsocollaboratedontheinaugural8.8shoppingfestivalinChinaonAugust8.

Offeringconvenience:InApril,Uniqlopartneredwith7-EleveninSouthKoreatoenableUniqlocustomerstopickuptheirInternetpurchasesfromtheconveniencestorechain.

Broadeningchoice:UnderanagreementannouncedinNovember,Lord&TaylorwillopenastorefrontonWalmart’sonlinemarketplacesiteinearly2018.DeniseIncandela,HeadofFashionatWalmartUSeCommerce,toldReuters,“OurgoalistocreateapremiumfashiondestinationwithinWalmart.com.”

Retailer-BrandCollaborationsBrick-and-mortarretailerssoughtoutcollaborationswithbrandsthatcouldbringproductexclusivityorexperiencestotheirstores.InMaythisyear,TargetbroughtCaspermattressestophysicalstoresforthefirsttime,afterintroducingHarry’sshavingproductsinstoresin2016.InAugust,Germany’sKaDeWeGroupfollowedTarget’sleadandbegansellingCaspermattressesinitsownstores.

InNovember,theMacy’sflagshipstoreinNewYork’sHeraldSquareunveileda1,000-square-footSamsungsmartproductexperiencearea.AccordingtoSamsung,thiswasthefirstinstallationofitskindintheUS,andthecombinationofretailandentertainmentbrought200–300customersintothestoreperdayinNovembertotrythevirtualrealityexperience.

Online,NikewasamongthebrandstostartsellingonAmazonthisyear.AndCalvinKleinoptedtosellitsnewunderwearstylesonlyonAmazonandthroughpop-upstoresinsteadofthroughtraditionalchannelssuchasdepartmentstores.

Retailer-ServiceCollaborationsInthemoststrikingretailer-servicecollaborationoftheyear,Hudson’sBayCompany(HBC)enteredintoastrategicrelationshipwithoffice-spaceproviderWeWork.HBCsolditsLord&TaylorNewYorkflagshiptoWeWork’srealestatecompany.WeWorkwillusethebuildingasitsheadquartersandleasesomeoftheofficespacetoothercompanies;asmallerLord&Taylorstorewilloccupypartofthebuilding.HBCwillalso


December22,2017

leasespaceinsomeofitsotherstorestoWeWork.Rhône,thepartnerinWeWork’srealestatejointventure,willmakea$500millionequityinvestmentinHBC.

Themoveillustratesthereducedneedforsquarefootageatdepartmentstoresandsuggeststhattherearepossibilitiesforotherhard-hitretailersandpropertyownerstogeneratevaluefromtheirsurfeitofunderproductiveretailspace.

Wewonderifwewillseeotherlarge-storeretailerssearchoutsimilaragreementswithserviceprovidersin2018.Evenifwedonot,thereislittledoubtthatwewillcontinuetoseeretailerstakeoriginalapproachestostrategicrelationshipsnextyearastheyseektodrivetraffic,taphigh-growthplatforms,adoptnewtechnologiesandmaximizethevalueoftheirrealestateportfolios.

USRETAILEARNINGS

Company

Revenues(USDMil.)

YoY%Change GrossMargin(%)

Change(bps)

NetIncome(USDMil.)

YoY%Change StoreFleetEOP

Period TY LY

TY LY

TY LY

TY LY

Costco 1Q18 31,809 28,099 13.2 13.2 13.6 (40) 640 545 17.4 746 723

Source:Companyreports/FGRT

USRETAIL&TECHHEADLINESMacy’sTapsFormerWalmartExecforNewDigitalRole(December20)RetailDive.com• Macy’sonTuesdayannouncedtheappointmentofJillRamseytothenewlycreatedroleof

ChiefProductandDigitalRevenueOfficer,whichwasestablishedtofocusonbridgingthegapbetweenthephysicalanddigitalcustomerexperiences.BeginningJanuary8,RamseywillreporttoMacy’spresidentHalLawton.

• RamseywilloverseeproductandrevenueforMacys.comandtheMacy’sapp.Shewillalsoleadondigitalrevenue,enterpriseproductmanagement,theenterpriseportfolio,digitalmerchandisemanagement,siteproductionandtheuserexperience,thecompanysaid.

WalmartIsReportedlyDevelopingaStoreoftheFuturewithNoCashiers(December20)BusinessInsider.com• Walmartisdevelopingastorewithnocashiers,accordingtoareportinRecode.Fewdetails

areavailable,buttheinitialsketchoftheideasoundsverysimilartoAmazon’sAmazonGostore,whichhasnocashiersandusestrackingcamerasandmachine-learningsoftwaretochargecustomersforthingstheytakeofftheshelf.

• RecodealsoreportsthatWalmartistestingatech-heavypersonal-shoppingservicegearedtowardhigher-income“busy”moms.Itallowscustomerstobuyproductsorgetrecommendationssimplybysnappingapictureandsendingittothecompany.

Lowe’sTapsFormerAmazonExecforFirstChiefDigitalOfficerRole(December19)ZDNet.com• HomeimprovementchainLowe’shasnabbedane-commerceexecutivefromAmazonto

becomeitsfirst-everChiefDigitalOfficer,arelativelynewroleinthecorporatetaxonomythatisincreasinglydrivingdigitaltransformationefforts.

• VikramSinghischargedwithacceleratingthecompany’s“digitalevolution”intoafullyintegratedretailerwithseamlessconnectionsbetweenin-store,onlineandmobileshopping.HewillalsoworktobetterintegratedigitaleffortsatLowe’sbetweenitssupplychainandmarketingoperations.

WEINSWIG’SWATCHING

Thisweek,theFGRTteamparticipatedinCelect’s“2017inReview:TheRetailTurningPoint”livewebcast.


December22,2017

BankruptToys“R”UsWeighsClosingatLeast100Stores(December18)Bloomberg.com• Toys“R”Us,whichfiledforbankruptcyinSeptember,isconsideringclosingatleast100US

storesinthefaceofweakholidaysales,accordingtopeoplewithknowledgeofthesituation.• Shuttingstoresiscommonpracticeforbankruptretailers,butToys“R”Ushassaidthatits

Chapter11filingwouldnotheraldabigretrenchmentforthelargesttoystorechain.Weakholidayresultsthreatentocomplicatetheretailer’splanstogetitsfinancesinorderandemergefrombankruptcywithanimprovedbalancesheet.

AmericansSpendMorethanExpectedasHolidaySeasonHeatsUp(December14)WSJ.com• Americansarespendingmorethanexpectedthisholidayseason,fueledbyincomegains,

confidenceintheeconomicoutlook,buoyantfinancialmarketsandmodestinflation.• Theboostincludesin-storeandonlinespendingatbrick-and-mortarretailerssuchas

WalmartandNordstrom,whichclockedthelargestyear-over-yearNovembersalesincreaseinsevenyears.Homefurnishingsstoresandelectronicsandappliancestoresalsologgedstrongspendingnumbers.

TargettoBuyShiptfor$550MillioninChallengetoAmazon(December13)Bloomberg.com• TargetagreedtopurchasegrocerydeliverystartupShiptfor$550million,steppingupits

challengetoAmazonbyspeedingtherolloutofsame-dayshipping.• Theall-cashdealwillletTargetcustomersordergroceriesandothergoodsonline,andthen

havetheitemssentdirectlytotheirdoorsfromnearbyTargetstores.BuyingShiptfurtherbeefsupTarget’slogisticsoperations,followingitsacquisitionofsoftwarecompanyGrandJunctionearlierthisyear.

EUROPERETAILEARNINGS

Company

Revenues(USDMil.)

ChangeinUSD(%)

ChangeinReporting

Currency(%)GrossMargin

(%)Change(bps)

NetIncome(USDMil.)

YoY%Change StoreFleetEOY

Period TY LY

TY LY

TY LY

2017 2016

Ocado*4QEDec3 495 423 17.1 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

H&M4QENov30 6,157 5,981 2.9 (4.4) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4,739 4,351

CeconomyFYE

Sep30 24,477 24,293 0.8 1.3 20.6 20.4 14 1,273.8 729.8 74.5 1,053 1,023

*RetailsegmentonlySource:Companyreports/FGRT

EUROPERETAIL&TECHHEADLINESUKRetailSalesBounceBackinNovember(December14)OfficeforNationalStatisticspressrelease• InNovember,UKretailsalesgrewby4.8%yearoveryear,wellaheadofinflationand

recoveringfromsoftgrowthinOctober,accordingtotheOfficeforNationalStatistics.• Groceryretailersandelectricalgoodsspecialistsenjoyedrobustyear-over-yeargrowth,

owingtoBlackFridaysales.Clothingspecialistsposted6.1%growthinNovember,sustainedsolelybyaverylargerecordedincreaseatsmallclothingchains.

TescotoInvest€70MillioninIrelandStores(December19)Independent.ie• BritishgrocerTescohasearmarked€70million($83million)forstoredevelopmentinIreland

in2018.TescoIrelandCEOAndrewYaxleysaidthatthecompanybeganthestoreexpansionprogramafterbusinessinIrelandreturnedtogrowththisyear.

• Ofthetotalinvestment,€31million($37million)issetasideforanewstoreatashoppingcenterclosetoDublin.Thestore,whichopensinMay2018,willspan60,000squarefeet.


December22,2017

ZalandoTrialsNewSimplifiedReturnsService(December18)RetailDetail.eu• GermanonlineretailerZalandoistrialinganewsimplifiedreturnsserviceinAustriathat

allowscustomerstoexchangeproductsboughtinthewrongsize.ThroughtheOrderExchangeService,acustomerneedonlyindicatetherightsizerequiredonthewebsiteandreturntheproducttobeexchangedtoacourierthatdeliversthenewproduct.

• Thisserviceisfreeduringthetrial.TheideawasgeneratedduringZalandoHackWeek,aneventwhereentrepreneurspitchednewideasfore-commercebusinessoperationsandwinnersweregivenfundingtodeveloptheirideasfurther.

InventureAnnouncesNewFundtoInvestinEarly-StageTechnologyStartups(December19)TechCrunch.com• NordicventurecapitalfirmInventurehasannouncedanewfundtotaling€110million($130

million)toinvestinseed-stageandearly-stagetechnologystartupsintheNordicregion.Inventureclaimsitis“thelargestearly-stagetechnologyfundeverraisedinFinland”andhopestoraisethefund’ssizeto€135million($159million)bytheendof2018.

• TheVCfirmisaboutadecadeoldandhasofficesinHelsinki,StockholmandShanghai.Itseekstoinvestinareasofemergingtechnology,includingartificialintelligence,theInternetofThings,newmaterials,sensorsandmixedreality.

AlbertHeijntoExitGermany(December15)ESMMagazine.com• DutchretailerAlbertHeijnannouncedthatitwillexitGermany,whereitoperatesthroughits

conveniencestorebanner,AlbertHeijnToGo.Theretailerhassixstand-alonestoresandfiveforecourtstoresinthecountrythatwillbeclosedbytheendofMarch2018.

• AlbertHeijnspokespersonAnoesjkaAspelaghsaidthatthecompanyhadgiventhebanner“ampletime”toseeifitworkssinceitslaunchin2012.Aspelaghremarkedthatthestoressaw“modestgrowth,”butdidnotcontributetoward“asustainablecompany.”

Toys“R”UsUKFacesPotentialCollapse(December18)TheGuardian.com• Toys“R”UsUKfacespotentialcollapsethisweekasitstrugglestowinthesupportofthe

state-backedPensionProtectionFundforaplannedrestructure.ThePensionProtectionFundhasdemandedthatToys“R”Uspayabout£9million($12million)intoitsailingpensionfundinexchangeforbackingtheretailer’splannedcompanyvoluntaryarrangement,whichwouldsee26storesclose.

• Ifthecompanyvoluntaryarrangementdoesnotgoahead,sourcesclosetothecompanysaidthatitwaslikelytofallintoadministration,withthepotentialclosureofall84permanentstoresandabout20pop-upstores,puttingall3,200staffatriskofredundancy.

ASIARETAIL&TECHHEADLINESHorizonsVenturesBacksAIStartupFanoLabsinFirstHongKongInvestment(December19)TechCrunch.com• HorizonsVentures,theventurecapitalfirmfoundedbyHongKong’srichestman,LiKa-Shing,

hasmadearareearly-stageinvestment,backingartificialintelligence(AI)startupFanoLabs.HorizonshasinvestedinFacebook,Razer,Slack,Improbable,Spotifyandothers,andisnowinvestinganundisclosedamountinFanoLabs,whichrecentlygraduatedfromtheZerothAIacceleratorprogram.Thedealmarksthefirm’sfirstinvestmentinaHongKong–basedcompany.

• FanoLabsusesspeechrecognitionandnaturallanguageprocessingtohelpcallcenters,whereitstechnologyisusedtolistentorecordedinteractionswithcustomers.Asanyonewhohasevercalledacenterknows,“yourcallmayberecorded.”Thatissothecompanycanensuretheagenthasperformedwithintheboundariesofthelaw.Recordingsarealsousedtoevaluatestaff,checkoncustomerfeedbackandtrainnewemployees.


December22,2017

TencentandJD.comInvest$863MillionintoE-CommerceFirmVipshoptoBattleAlibaba(December18)TechCrunch.com• Tencentiscontinuingitsinvestmentspree,agreeingtobuy$604millioninsharesofChinese

onlineretailerVipshop.ThedealisbeingmadewithlongtimepartnerJD.com,whichwillinvest$259millioninNYSE-listedVipshop.Thattakesthetotalbetweenthetwoto$863million.

• Theduoispayinga55%premiumforthestock,whichwillgiveTencenta7%shareandJD.coma5.5%shareinVipshop.Theinvestmentswillalsoalloweachfirmtoappointaboardmemberbasedonshareholdingtermsfollowingatwo-yearlockupperiod.Vipshopisbestknownasanonlinediscountretailerforbrands,withaparticularfocusonthefashionspace.

GoogleIsUsingLightBeamTechtoConnectRuralIndiatotheInternet(December15)TechCrunch.com• Googleispreparingtouselightbeamstobringruralareasoftheplanetonline,andthe

companyhasannouncedaplannedrolloutinIndia.Alphabet’sX—thecompanyformerlyknownasGoogleX—isworkingwithatelecomoperatorintheIndianstateofAndhraPradesh,hometomorethan50millionpeople,touseFreeSpaceOpticalCommunication(FSOC),atechnologythatusesbeamsoflighttodeliverhigh-speed,high-capacityconnectivityoverlongdistances .

• XpartnerAPStateFiberNetwillintroduce2,000FSOClinksbeginninginJanuarytoaddadditionalsupporttoitsnetworkbackboneinthestate.TheXprojectisaimedat“criticalgapstomajoraccesspoints,likecelltowersandWi-Fihotspots,thatsupportthousandsofpeople,”thecompanysaid.Theinitiativetiesintoagovernmentinitiativetoconnect12millionhouseholdstotheInternetby2019,theUSfirmadded.

TencenttoBuyPartofSupermartChaininRareRetailForay(December17)Bloomberg.com• TencentwillacquireastakeinChinesesupermarketchainYonghuiSuperstoresforabout

¥4.22billion($638million),arareincursionintoaphysicalretailarenacovetedbyrivalAlibabaGroup.China’slargestInternetcorporationisbuyingabout5%ofYonghuifromexistingshareholdersat¥8.81ashare,YonghuisaidinanexchangefilinglastFriday,a9.9%discounttoitspricebeforetradingwashaltedonDecember8.

• “TheproposedTencent-Yonghuidealsuggestsmoretie-upsbetweenChinesegroceryretailersandleadingInternetplatformsarelikely,”ShenLiandVey-SernLing,HongKong–basedBloombergIntelligenceanalysts,wroteinanoteWednesday.“Investmentingroceries,ahigh-frequencypurchasecategoryforconsumers,willexpandthereachofTencent’smobilepaymentsystem,WeChatPay,whichhasbeengainingmarketsharefromAlibaba’sAlipayoverthepastfewyears.”

LATAMRETAIL&TECHHEADLINESOracleLaunchesInnovationLabinBrazil(December13)ZDNet.com• OraclehaslaunchedanewinnovationlabinBraziltoco-createinnovationprojectswith

clientsandstartups.Thelabwaspreviouslylocatedatthecompany’sofficesinBrazilandwasmainlybasedononlinecollaborationplatforms.

• “OurmissionistocontributetotheexpansionofinnovationinBrazil.Thatiswhywehavecreatedthisknowledgeexchangespaceoperatingonseveralfronts,suchascustomer

BrazilianPCMarketBackonTrack(December18)ZDNet.com• TheBrazilianPCmarkethasreturnedtogrowthafterthreeconsecutivequartersofpositive

salesperformance,accordingtofiguresfromIDC.Third-quartersalesgrewby30%,with1.36millionPCssoldversus1.04millioninthesamequarterof2016.Revenuewasalsoup,atR$3billion($911million),a28%increaseyearoveryear.

• Thisfollowsthepositivegrowthseenearlierthisyear.PCsalesgrewby5%inboththefirstandsecondquartersof2017,accordingtoIDCBrazilresearch.Lastyear,PCsalesinBraziltookaconsiderablehitduetotherecessionthecountryhadbeengoingthrough.


December22,2017

BrazilianFintechNubankStartsInternationalTechTalentHunt(December13)ZDNet.com• BrazilianfintechNubankhaslaunchedanengineeringcenterinBerlinaspartofaplanto

boostitssoftwareengineeringfunctioninternationally.BasedintheSt.OberholzcoworkingspaceinthehipneighborhoodofMitte,thecompany’sengineeringcenterwillserveasavehicletoabsorbinternationalsectortrends,developnewproductsandattracttechnologytalent.

• OnecouldbeforgivenforthinkingthatNubankplansontakingadvantageofthemarketopportunitiesinEuropebroughtbytheEU’supcomingPaymentServicesDirective.ThefirmstressedthatithasnoplanstolaunchproductsintheregionandthatthemaingoalistocontinuefocusingontheBrazilianmarket.

AmazonBecomesMexico’sTopOnlineRetailerin2017(December19)Reuters.com• AmazonlikelydoubleditssalestobecomethebiggestInternetretailerinMexicothisyear,

helpingtogrowthecountry’snascente-commercemarketbyathird,accordingtoareportbymarketresearchfirmEuromonitorInternational.

• Theworld’slargestonlineretailerwillgenerate$502.2millioninMexicosalesthisyearcomparedwith$243.9millionlastyear,theEuromonitorreportsaid.Thefirm’sfindingswerebasedontradesurveys,marketstudiesanddataresearch.

MACROUPDATE

KeypointsfromglobalmacroindicatorsreleasedDecember13–20,2017:

1) US:Retailsalesincreasedby0.8%monthovermonthinNovember,aheadofthe0.3%consensusestimate.Industrialproductioncameinbelowthemarket’sestimateinNovember,edgingupby0.2%monthovermonth.

2) Europe:IntheUK,retailsalesincreasedby1.2%monthovermonthandby1.5%yearoveryearinNovember.TheUKunemploymentratestoodat4.3%inOctober.Intheeurozone,industrialproductionincreasedby0.2%monthovermonthinOctober.

3) Asia-Pacific:InChina,retailsalesincreasedby10.2%yearoveryearinNovember,whileindustrialproductionincreasedby6.1%yearoveryear.InJapan,theTankanLargeManufacturingIndexincreasedto25inthefourthquarter,whiletheNonmanufacturingIndexremainedat23.

4) LatinAmerica:InBrazil,retailsalesdecreasedby0.9%monthovermonthandincreasedby2.5%yearoveryearinOctober.Thegaugesforbothperiodswereweakerthantherespectiveconsensusestimates,whichhadcalledfora0.2%month-over-monthincreaseanda5.0%year-over-yearincreaseinretailsales.


December22,2017

Country/Region Indicator Period Actual Survey Prior Impacton

Economy*

US RetailSalesAdvance(MoM) Nov 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% +

US RetailSalesexAutos(MoM) Nov 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% +

US RetailSalesexAutosandGas(MoM) Nov 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% +

US IndustrialProduction(MoM) Nov 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% –

UK RetailSalesexAutoFuel(MoM) Nov 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% +

UK RetailSalesexAutoFuel(YoY) Nov 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% +

UK RetailSalesIncl.AutoFuel(MoM) Nov 1.1% 0.4% 0.5% +

UK RetailSalesIncl.AutoFuel(YoY) Nov 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% +

UK ILOUnemploymentRate(3Mos.) Oct 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% =

EZ IndustrialProduction(SA,MoM) Oct 0.2% 0.0% (0.5)% =

EZ IndustrialProduction(WDA,YoY) Oct 3.7% 3.2% 3.4% =

CN RetailSales(YTD,YoY) Nov 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% +

CN RetailSales(YoY) Nov 10.2% 10.3% 10.0% +

CN IndustrialProduction(YTD,YoY) Nov 6.6% 6.6% 6.7% +

CN IndustrialProduction(YoY) Nov 6.1% 6.1% 6.2% +

JP TankanLargeManufacturingIndex 4Q 25 24 22 +

JP TankanLargeManufacturingOutlook 4Q 19 22 19 –

JP TankanLargeNonmanufacturingIndex 4Q 23 24 23 –

JP TankanLargeNonmanufacturingOutlook 4Q 20 21 19 –

JP TankanLargeAllIndustryCapitalExpenditure 4Q 7.4% 7.5% 7.7% =

BZ RetailSales(MoM) Oct (0.9)% 0.2% 0.3% –

BZ RetailSales(YoY) Oct 2.5% 5.0% 6.2% –*FGRT’sevaluationoftheactualfigure’simpactontheeconomyrelativetohistoricalbenchmarksandthecurrentmacroeconomicenvironment:+indicatesapositivesignalforthecountry’seconomy,–indicatesanegativesignaland=indicatesanegligibleormixedimpact.Source:USCensusBureau/USFederalReserve/UKOfficeforNationalStatistics/Eurostat/NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina/BankofJapan/InstitutoBrasileirodeGeografiaeEstatística/FGRT


December22,2017

EARNINGSCALENDAR

Sales(Mil.) EPS

Company

EarningsReleasePeriod Date

ConsensusTY LYActual

ConsensusTY LYActual Currency

IconixBrandGroup(ICON) 3Q17 Dec22(E) 54.1 90.9 0.10 0.14 USD

RiteAid(RAD) 3Q18 Jan3 7,499 8,090 (0.02) 0.02 USD

WalgreensBootsAlliance(WBA) 1Q18 Jan4 30,734 28,501 1.26 0.96 USD

ExpressScripts(ESRX) 4Q17 Jan8(E) 25,055 24,863 2.06 1.41 USD

AvonProducts(AVP) 4Q17 Jan9(E) 1,602 1,568 0.07 0.01 USD

FastRetailing(9983.JP) 1Q18 Jan11 572 529 582 684 JPY

Supervalu(SVU) 3Q18 Jan17(E) 4,032 3,003 0.47 0.32 USD

Kimberly-Clark(KMB) 4Q17 Jan23 4,604 4,544 1.55 1.44 USD

Alibaba(BABA) 3Q18 Jan23(E) 79,132 53,248 10.72 7.07 CNY

Procter&Gamble(PG) 2Q18 Jan23(E) 17,348 16,856 1.14 1.10 USD

eBay(EBAY) 4Q17 Jan24(E) 2,610 2,395 0.59 0.48 USD

LVMH(MC.PA) FY17 Jan25 42,288 37,600 9.77 8.08 EUR

DeckersOutdoor(DECK) 3Q18 Jan25(E) 743 760 3.79 4.11 USD

Colgate-Palmolive(CL) 4Q17 Jan26 3,920 3,721 0.75 0.75 USD

UnderArmour(UA) 4Q17 Jan30(E) 1,310 1,305 0.00 0.23 USD

GGP(GGP) 4Q17 Jan30(E) 605 610 0.46 0.43 USD

Apple(AAPL) 1Q18 Jan30(E) 86,218 78,351 3.77 3.36 USD

H&M(HM-B.ST) FY17 Jan31 201,743 192,267 10.27 11.26 SEK

Facebook(FB) 4Q17 Jan31(E) 12,540 9,809 2.17 1.21 USD

SimonPropertyGroup(SPG) 4Q17 Jan31(E) 1,450 1,426 3.11 2.53 USD

Clorox(CLX) 2Q18 Jan31(E) 1,429 1,406 1.23 1.24 USD

Alphabet(GOOGL) 4Q17 Feb1 25,556 26,064 12.37 7.63 USD

Unilever(ULVR.L) FY17 Feb1 53,901 52,713 2.21 1.88 EUR

SallyBeauty(SBH) 1Q18 Feb1(E) 992 999 0.42 0.39 USD

Hanesbrands(HBI) 4Q17 Feb1(E) 1,630 1,575 0.52 0.53 USD

Amazon(AMZN) 4Q17 Feb1(E) 59,754 43,741 3.78 1.55 USD

EstéeLauder(EL) 2Q18 Feb2 3,666 3,208 1.42 1.24 USD

Ocado(OCDO.L) FY17 Feb6 1,452 1,271 0.01 0.02 GBP

Tapestry(TPR) 2Q18 Feb6 1,773 1,322 0.88 0.75 USD


December22,2017

EVENTCALENDAR

Event Location Date(s)

FGRTPresenting/Attending

PlanalyticsPost-HolidayWrap-Up Webcast Jan4 √ CES2018MediaDays LasVegas,NV Jan7–8 √ PepcomDigitalExperience LasVegas,NV Jan8 BrandInnovatorsMegaTrends LasVegas,NV Jan8–9 J.P.Morgan16thAnnualTechForumatCES2018 LasVegas,NV Jan8–9 ICRConference2018 Orlando,FL Jan8–10 CES2018 LasVegas,NV Jan9–12 √ ULINewYork:RezoningMidtownEast NewYork,NY Jan12 RetailInsidersParty NewYork,NY Jan14 NRFFoundationGala NewYork,NY Jan14 RetailAnalyticsInterWorksDinner NewYork,NY Jan14 √ NRF2018Retail’sBigShow NewYork,NY Jan14–16 √ InforRetail’sNRFParty NewYork,NY Jan15 UltimateE-CommerceLeadersParty NewYork,NY Jan15 FinancoCEOForum NewYork,NY Jan15 Microsoft/FGRTNYInnovatorsBoardBreakfast NewYork,NY Jan16 √ EntrepreneursRoundtableAccelerator114 NewYork,NY Jan16 XRCLabsCohort5LaunchEvent NewYork,NY Jan16 ProjectNY NewYork,NY Jan21–23 BrandInnovatorsContentMarketing Dallas,TX Jan22 ICSCWhistlerConference Whistler,BC,Canada Jan28–30 2018OurCrowdGlobalInvestorSummit Jerusalem,Israel Feb1 WWDDigitalBeautyForum NewYork,NY Feb7 VentureHoursbyAlibabaEntrepreneursFund HongKong Feb8 Magic LasVegas,NV Feb12–14 GoldmanSachsTechnology&InternetConference SanFrancisco,CA Feb13–15 MorganStanleyTechnology,Media&TelecomConference SanFrancisco,CA Feb26–Mar1 WWDRetail20/20Forum Tokyo,Japan Feb28 AAFAExecutiveSummit Washington,DC Feb28–Mar2 ICSCREConEurope London,UK Mar6 NACSConvenienceSummit–Asia HongKong Mar12–14 SPECSShow2018:TheForefrontofPhysicalRetail Dallas,TX Mar18–20 √ Shoptalk2018 LasVegas,NV Mar18–21 √ WWDMen’sWearSummit NewYork,NY Mar27 WorldRetailCongress Madrid,Spain Apr17–19 √ WWDRetail20/20Forum London,UK Apr24 2018WWDBeautyCEOSummit PalmBeach,FL May14–16 ICSCRECon:TheGlobalRetailRealEstateConvention LasVegas,NV May20–23 √ 3rdAnnualVRWorld London,UK May22–23


December22,2017

DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFGRTNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:86.186.1420.3016deborahweinswig@fung1937.comKirilPopovSeniorAnalyst

JohnHarmon,CFASeniorAnalyst

JohnMercerSeniorAnalyst

StevenWinnickResearchAssociate

CharliePoonResearchAssistant

HongKong:2ndFloor,HongKongSpinnersIndustrialBuildingPhase1&2800CheungShaWanRoad,KowloonHongKongTel:85223004406London:242-246MaryleboneRoadLondon,NW16JQUnitedKingdomNewYork:1359Broadway,18thFloorNewYork,NY10018Tel:6468397017FungGlobalRetailTech.com

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