September 16, 2008

From the Paved State

Back to the Garden State

Mobility without Highways for

New Jersey Alain L. Kornhauser

Professor, Operations Research & Financial EngineeringDirector, Transportation Research Program

Princeton University

Presented at PodCar Conference, Ithica, NY

September 16, 2008

Background• I’ve been dabbling in PRT for over 35 years• In many ways, I’m very disappointed in our lack of

progress:– A long time ago: Exec. Director of APTA said:

“Alain: PRT is the transportation system of the future…And Always will be!!!”

• But we have made progress:– Morgantown has proven that it can be done– APMs are a standard of every modern airport– Automation and computer controls have become ubiquitous,

reliable and cheap– There is broad movement towards energy independence and

alternatives to the petroleum economy

September 16, 2008

So…

• Premise:– NJ in 2008 is very different from NJ in 1908

• A look at what might be NJ’s Mobility in 2108 (or before)

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Looking Back

• In the beginning, it takes a while

• let’s look at the automobile:

Daimler, 1888

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Central Ave. Caldwell NJ c. 1908

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Bloomfield Ave. & Academy Rd. c. 1908 Before it was paved

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Muddy Bloomfield Ave. c. 1908

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Muddy Main St. (Rt. 38) Locke, NY. c. 1907

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Automobile Congestion 1968 - present

Finally:

September 16, 2008

Starting to Look Forward

Daimler, 1888

Morgantown, 1973

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So…1888

1973

1908 1988

2073

September 16, 2008

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/PRT_Of467F07/PRT_NJ_Orf467F07_FinalReport.pdf

September 16, 2008

PRT as the Dominant Mode. What would it take?

• Had my undergrad Transportation Systems Analysis class (Orf 467) looking at this for each of the past 3 years

• Def. “Dominant Mode”: Serve >90% of all intra NJ trips + access to existing mass transit serving NYC and Phila

• Def. “Serve”: Less than 5 minute walk to a station; stations all interconnected; all existing rail mass transit connected/

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Sketch Planning Process• Precisely geolocate all trip ends by purpose

• Extensive use Google Earth and Msft. Virtual Earth to provide spatial reality perspective to trip end concentrations and Physical constraints

• Manually locate all stations and interconnection

• Analytically assign the trip end demand to stations and flow the trips on the interconnected network.

• Manually iterate the location of stations and interconnection

September 16, 2008

Basic NJ Transport StatsElement Value

Population (2006 est.) 8.725 million

Growth rate 3.7% (6.4% nw)

Population density 1,134.5 ppsm (highest in US)

190ppsm (Salem) – 12,800pps (Hudson)

Persons < 5 years old 6%

Persons 5-17 18%

Persons 18-64 63%

Persons 65 and over 13%

Total Person trips per day 29.46M

2007 $ Spent on Personal Mobility by NJ Citizens (mostly on Automobile)

$24B

Source of Electricity Generation Nuclear: 45%; Natural Gas: 41%; Renewables: < 0.2%

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Briefly on Energy

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3.pdf

September 16, 2008

OPEC Cuts World Petroleum Demand Forecast, Nov 17,2008

EIA World oil Demand, Nov 12, 2008: 85.89 Mbpd

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Glouchester County

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Essex County

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Middlesex County

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Morris County

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Passaic County

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Sussex County

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Union County

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Warren County

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Number of Stations by County & Main Trip EndCounty Transp School Home Recre Office Industry Public Shop Religious MultiUse Other TOTAL

Atlantic -

17

-

1 18 114 8 - 3 30 - 191

Bergen

28 217 394

47 81 37 15 32 17 249 -

1,117

Burlington

1 69

24

52

188 76 40 54 2 85 6 597

Cape May

11 30 173

46 17 217 38 18 47 351 28

976

Cumberland

2 37 106

7 68 86 24 27 2 78 -

437

Essex

18 30 102

237 9 9 15 92 - 83 -

595

Gloucester

2 103 192

9 20 9 3 13 6 55 -

412

Hudson

7 37

58

154 12 15 7 113 - 64 - 467

Hunterdon

2 39 107

26 21 34 25 44 9 78 20

405

Mercer

5 85

43

18 89 22 21 28 7 89 6 413

Middlesex

11 15 224

16 15 88 - 2 - 70 3

444

Monmouth

31 25

75

27 62 6 8 10 19 66 6 335

Morris

14 125 408

55 50 12 16 16 20 127 15

858

Ocean

11 105

55

60 76 69 52 56 - 42 14 540

Passaic

38 152 285

110

104 65 38 57 71 262 3

1,185

Salem

4 26

45

5 73 27 13 24 1 67 - 285

Somerset

7 39 330

19 31 10 2 23 6 94 7

568

Sussex

3 56

74

68 51 41 16 38 4 37 21 409

Union

16 48

99

112 91 26 45 57 - 83 - 577

Warren

11 42 217

45 55 32 28 20 1 22 11

484

TOALS 222

1,297

3,011

1,114

1,131 995

414

724 215 2,032 140

11,295

September 16, 2008

County Stations Miles County Stations Miles

Atlantic 191 526 Middlesex 444 679

Bergen 1,117 878 Monmouth 335 565

Burlington 597 488 Morris 858 694

Camden 482 355 Ocean 540 1,166

Cape May 976 497 Passaic 1185 1,360

Cumberland 437 1,009 Salem 285 772

Essex 595 295 Somerset 568 433

Gloucester 412 435 Sussex 409 764

Hudson 467 122 Union 577 254

Hunterdon 405 483 Warren 484 437

Mercer 413 403 Total 11,295 12,261

September 16, 2008

Bottom Line

Element Value

PRT Trips per day (90%) 26.51M

Peak hour trips (15%) 3.98M

Fleet size 530K

Fleet Cost $B $53B @ $100K/vehicle

Stations 11,295

Station Cost $28B @ $2M/Station

Guideway 12,265 miles

Guideway Cost $61B @ $5M/mile

Total Capital Cost $143B

September 16, 2008

Conclusions• It’s a lot• It does a lot• It’s one design focused on existing land use / mobility

patterns• We should be able to do better

• Thank you

alaink@princeton.edu

www.princeton.edu/~alaink