from tides to storms: preparing for new · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea...

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Assessing the Risk and Vulnerability of NH Coastal Communities to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST Seabrook - Hampton Falls – Hampton - North Hampton – Rye - New Castle - Portsmouth This project is funded by New Hampshire Homeland Security and Emergency Management (HSEM) through a Pre-Disaster Mitigation Grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Julie LaBranche Senior Planner NH Office of Energy and Planning Spring 2016 Planning and Zoning Conference June 4, 2016

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Page 1: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

Assessing the Risk and Vulnerability of NH Coastal Communities to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

Seabrook - Hampton Falls – Hampton - North Hampton – Rye - New Castle - Portsmouth

This project is funded by New Hampshire Homeland

Security and Emergency Management (HSEM)

through a Pre-Disaster Mitigation Grant from the

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

Julie LaBranche Senior Planner

NH Office of Energy and Planning Spring 2016 Planning and Zoning Conference

June 4, 2016

Page 2: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

Portsmouth

New Castle

Rye

North Hampton

Hampton

Hampton Falls

Seabrook

Project Deliverables

• Maps and Data

• Regional and Municipal Vulnerability Assessment reports

Project Overview

• Evaluate impacts from sea-level rise and storm surge flooding

• Roadways, Critical Infrastructure, Natural Resources

Page 3: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

Best-available science

Maps and Data

Municipal Coordination

Implementation Guidance

Vehicles for Informed Planning

Applicability

Tools and Applications

Page 4: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

+6.3 feet sea level

+4.0 feet sea level

+1.7 feet sea level

Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level Rise, Storm Surges, and Extreme Precipitation in Coastal New Hampshire: Analysis of Past and Projected Future Trends.

Best Available Science- SLR Scenarios/Projections

Page 5: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

Sea-level rise Sea-level rise + Storm surge

High-Resolution Mapping Flood Extents Impacts to assets and resources

Page 6: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

High-Resolution Mapping Flood Extents Impacts to assets and resources

Example: Rye Harbor

Page 7: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

MHHW+ 1.7feet SLR

MHHW+ 4.0feet SLR

MHHW+ 6.3feet SLR

storm surge +1.7 feet SLR

storm surge +4.0 feet SLR

storm surge +6.3 feet SLR

State and Local Roadways (miles)

Local State

Impacts by Asset type

Page 8: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

0

5

10

15

20

25

Hampton HamptonFalls

NewCastle

NorthHampton Portsmouth

Rye Seabrook

Miles of Roadway by Municipality

SLR + 1.7 feet SLR + 4.0 feet SLR +6.3 feet

Page 9: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Upland - acres above mean higher high water

SLR + 1.7 feet SLR + 4.0 feet SLR +6.3 feet

Page 10: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Municipal Zoning Districts (acres)

SLR + 1.7 feet SLR + 4.0 feet SLR +6.3 feet

Page 11: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

Implementation Guidance

• Designing for resiliency in the current 100-year floodplain will protect against long term sea-level rise

• Adaptation strategies need to be customized to address variable conditions

• Iterative actions, not a one-size-fits-all problem

• No-regrets policies and investments

• Periodic review and evaluation of climate science findings, adjust strategies accordingly

Page 12: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

Municipal Coordination

Administration

Public Works

Planning

Building/Code Enforcement

Conservation

Public Outreach & Participation

Community Support For Actions

Regional & State Coordination

Page 13: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

• Critical Infrastructure

• State and Local Roads

• Utilities and Infrastructure

• Natural Resources - Environment

• Policy and Planning Recommendations

• Regulatory Strategies

• Non-Regulatory Approaches

Local Hazard Mitigation

Plans

State Agency Plans

Regional

Master Plan

Natural Resource Conservation

Vulnerability Assessment

Regional Planning Recommendations

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

Vehicles for Informed Planning

Page 14: FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW · +6.3 feet sea level +4.0 feet sea level +1.7 feet sea level Source: Wake CP, Kirshen P, Huber M, Knuuti K, and Stampone M (2014) Sea-level

FROM TIDES TO STORMS: PREPARING FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE’S FUTURE COAST

How can the project results be useful?

o Inform recommendations in the CRHC Final Report

o Assist regional practitioners with technical assistance and outreach to municipalities

o Guide policy changes by state agencies

o Provide a solid rationale for grant proposals to fund infrastructure improvements, planning and community outreach

Project Applicability