from waging war may keep tehran · 2020. 1. 14. · mr. blume, who was raised in a democratic...

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K U(D54G1D)y+z!%!?!$!" DUBUQUE, Iowa — Almost ex- actly four years ago, Donald J. Trump touched down at an airport hangar here, delivered a donation to a group that provides service dogs to veterans and, before invit- ing a few kids to run around on his Boeing 757, criticized the wars in the Middle East that many local families had sent their sons and daughters to fight in. “I’m the guy that didn’t want to go to war,” he told a crowd of sev- eral hundred. “It’s just unjust, it’s a mess,” Mr. Trump went on, promising that if he ever did de- ploy the military anywhere, it would be “so strong, so powerful that nobody is going to mess with us anymore.” That November, Dubuque County voted Republican in the presidential election for the first time since 1956, when Dwight Ei- senhower was on the ballot. Mr. Trump’s success in places like Dubuque — heavily white, working class, union-friendly and Catholic — remade the Republi- can electorate. And his path to a second term depends heavily on whether those voters turn their backs on the Democratic Party again. But the specter of a new conflict in the Middle East — this time with Iran — threatens the political coalition that Mr. Trump built in 2016 by running against a national Republican Party that many vot- ers came to see as indifferent and unresponsive, particularly when it came to the human cost of war. “All he’s been saying is, ‘We’re getting out of there, we’re getting out of there, we’re getting out of there,’” said Mark Blume, a con- tractor in Dubuque who stopped into the local American Legion af- ter work one evening last week for a beer. Mr. Blume, who was raised in a Democratic household in New York and said he voted for Repub- licans and Democrats in presiden- tial elections but did not vote for either Mr. Trump or Hillary Clin- ton in 2016, expressed fatigue with the president’s erratic style. If it weren’t for that, he would be less uncertain about voting for Mr. Trump, who he believes has done a better than expected job as pres- ident. “He’s putting those kids in Trump 2020? Moves on Iran Raise Doubts 2016 Vow Questioned by Key Constituency By JEREMY W. PETERS A hangar at the Al Asad air base in Iraq that was hit by Iranian missiles last week in a retaliatory strike against U.S. forces. Page A6. SERGEY PONOMAREV FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES Continued on Page A13 MILTON, W.Va. — In the early mornings, Chastity and Paul Pey- ton walk from their small and barely heated apartment to Taco Bell to clean fryers and take or- ders for as many work hours as they can get. It rarely adds up to a full-time week’s worth, often not even close. With this income and whatever cash Mr. Peyton can scrape up doing odd jobs — which are hard to come by in a small town in winter, for someone with- out a car — the couple pays rent, utilities and his child support pay- ments. Then there is the matter of food. “We can barely eat,” Ms. Peyton said. She was told she would be getting food stamps again soon — a little over $2 worth a day — but the couple was without them for months. Sometimes they made too much money to qualify; some- times it was a matter of working too little. There is nothing reliable but the local food pantry. Four years ago, thousands of poor people here in Cabell County and eight other counties in West Virginia that were affected by a state policy change found them- selves having to prove that they were working or training for at least 20 hours a week in order to keep receiving food stamps con- sistently. In April, under a rule change by the Trump administra- tion, people all over the country who are “able-bodied adults with- out dependents” will have to do the same. The policy seems straightfor- ward, but there is nothing straightforward about the reality Cuts to Food Stamps Squeeze West Virginia’s Working Poor By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON Continued on Page A11 Dinner time at a homeless mis- sion in Huntington, W.Va. ANDREW SPEAR FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES With President Trump facing an impeachment trial over his efforts to pressure Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and his son Hunter Bi- den, Russian military hackers have been boring into the Ukrain- ian gas company at the center of the affair, according to security experts. The hacking attempts against Burisma, the Ukrainian gas com- pany on whose board Hunter Bi- den served, began in early No- vember, as talk of the Bidens, Ukraine and impeachment was dominating the news in the United States. It is not yet clear what the hack- ers found, or precisely what they were searching for. But the ex- perts say the timing and scale of the attacks suggest that the Rus- sians could be searching for po- tentially embarrassing material on the Bidens — the same kind of information that Mr. Trump wanted from Ukraine when he pressed for an investigation of the Bidens and Burisma, setting off a chain of events that led to his im- peachment. The Russian tactics are strik- ingly similar to what American in- telligence agencies say was Rus- sia’s hacking of emails from Hilla- ry Clinton’s campaign chairman and the Democratic National Committee during the 2016 presi- dential campaign. In that case, once they had the emails, the Rus- sians used trolls to spread and spin the material, and built an echo chamber to widen its effect. Then, as now, the Russian hack- ers from a military intelligence unit known formerly as the G.R.U., and to private researchers by the alias “Fancy Bear,” used so- called phishing emails that ap- Hackers Went to Work as Trump Inquiry Began By NICOLE PERLROTH and MATTHEW ROSENBERG Tactics Imply Russians Sought to Embarrass Bidens on Ukraine Continued on Page A7 Low in polls and money, Senator Cory Booker ended his bid to be the Demo- cratic presidential nominee. PAGE A12 NATIONAL A10-16 Booker Drops Out of Race The Trump administration formally removed China’s designation as a cur- rency manipulator on the eve of a trade agreement. PAGE A9 INTERNATIONAL A4-9 A Concession to China More than two dozen states are ex- pected to debate issues like whether college athletes can cut endorsement deals or hire agents. PAGE B12 SPORTSTUESDAY B8-12 Weighing College Amateurism Queen Elizabeth II will allow Prince Harry and his wife, Meghan, to become part-time royals. PAGE A5 Approval for Royals’ New Life Pennsylvania’s old steel center began an economic revival over a decade ago. But the president may benefit. PAGE B1 BUSINESS B1-7 Jobs Abound in Lehigh Valley Tiffany & Company began renovating its flagship store, moving 114,000 pieces to a temporary space nearby. PAGE A17 NEW YORK A17-19 Little Blue Boxes on the Move Airborne toxins are not just a modern problem; they may have helped to shape human evolution. Above, a cyclist in the New Delhi smog. PAGE D1 SCIENCE TIMES D1-6 The Legacy of Air Pollution Officials said the man and woman who killed four at a Jersey City market also had a long-range bomb. PAGE A17 New Hate Attack Details The film starring Joaquin Phoenix has earned 11 nominations, with “The Irish- man,” “Once Upon a Time . . . in Holly- wood” and “1917” close behind. PAGE C1 ARTS C1-8 ‘Joker’ Leads Oscar Field Paul Krugman PAGE A22 EDITORIAL, OP-ED A22-23 It is an enduring part of base- ball strategy: As a batter is at the plate, his teammates carefully watch a catcher’s fingers to figure out what pitch is about to be thrown. It is all fair play as long as teams do not enhance the abilities of the naked eye and clever minds with either cameras or electronic de- vices that allow teammates to sig- nal the batter whether a fastball or a breaking ball is on the way. But that is exactly what the Houston Astros did during their 2017 championship-winning sea- son, clouding that World Series ti- tle and causing one of baseball’s biggest cheating scandals in years, Major League Baseball offi- cials said on Monday in a scathing report detailing the team’s scheme. By the end of the day, Houston General Manager Jeff Luhnow and Manager A.J. Hinch — the two men who helped propel the Astros to the top of the sport — had been suspended and then fired, while their club was left with Cheating Scandal Tarnishes a World Series Title By JAMES WAGNER Astros Fire Two Leaders Suspended by M.L.B. Continued on Page A11 Attorney General William P. Barr declared on Monday that a deadly shooting last month at a naval air station in Pensacola, Fla., was an act of terrorism, and he asked Apple in an unusually high-profile request to provide ac- cess to two phones used by the gunman. Mr. Barr’s appeal was an esca- lation of a continuing fight be- tween the Justice Department and Apple pitting personal pri- vacy against public safety. “This situation perfectly illus- trates why it is critical that the public be able to get access to dig- ital evidence,” Mr. Barr said. He called on technology companies to find a solution and complained that Apple had provided no “sub- stantive assistance,” a charge that the company strongly denied on Monday night, saying it had been working with the F.B.I. since the day of the shooting. Detailing the results of the in- vestigation into the Dec. 6 shoot- ing that killed three sailors and wounded eight others, Mr. Barr said the gunman, Second Lt. Mo- hammed Saeed Alshamrani — a Saudi Air Force cadet training with the American military — had displayed extremist leanings. Mr. Alshamrani warned on last year’s anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks that “the countdown has begun” and posted other anti- American, anti-Israeli and jihadist social media messages, some within hours of attacking the base, Mr. Barr said. “The evidence shows that the shooter was moti- vated by jihadist ideology,” the at- torney general said. The government has also re- moved from the country some 21 Saudi students who trained with the American military, Mr. Barr said. He stressed that investiga- tors found no connection to the shooting among the cadets, but said that some had links to extre- mist movements or possessed child pornography. Mr. Barr said the cases were too weak to pros- ecute but that Saudi Arabia kicked the trainees out of the program. The battle between the govern- ment and technology companies over advanced encryption and Clash Looming In Bid to Open Killer’s iPhones Barr Presses Apple on Pensacola Shooting By KATIE BENNER Continued on Page A16 LONDON — Iran is caught in a wretched economic crisis. Jobs are scarce. Prices for food and other necessities are skyrocket- ing. The economy is rapidly shrinking. Iranians are increas- ingly disgusted. Crippling sanctions imposed by the Trump administration have severed Iran’s access to interna- tional markets, decimating the economy, which is contracting at an alarming 9.5 percent annual rate, the International Monetary Fund estimated. Oil exports were effectively zero in December, ac- cording to Oxford Economics, as the sanctions have prevented sales, though smugglers have transported unknown volumes. The bleak economy appears to be tempering the willingness of Iran to escalate hostilities with the United States, its leaders cog- nizant that war could profoundly worsen national fortunes. In re- cent months, public anger over joblessness, economic anxiety and corruption has emerged as a potentially existential threat to Iran’s hard-line government. Only a week ago, such senti- ments had been redirected by out- rage over the Trump administra- tion’s Jan. 3 killing of Iran’s top military commander, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani. But protests flared anew over the weekend in Tehran, and then continued on Monday, after the government’s astonishing admission that it was — despite three days of denial — responsible for shooting down a Ukrainian jetliner. The demonstrations were most pointedly an expression of con- tempt for the government’s cover- up after its downing of the Ukrain- ian jet, which killed all 176 people on board. But the fury in the streets resonated as a rebuke for broader grievances — diminish- ing livelihoods, financial anxiety BROKEN ECONOMY MAY KEEP TEHRAN FROM WAGING WAR THREAT TO HARD-LINERS Hostilities Toward U.S. Could Further Strap Angry Population By PETER S. GOODMAN Continued on Page A6 Elizabeth Warren said Bernie Sanders once told her a woman couldn’t win the presidency. He denied it. PAGE A13 A Crack in Candidates’ Bond NEW MESSAGE “It doesn’t really matter” why he ordered a killing, the president wrote. PAGE A15 JONATHAN BACHMAN/GETTY IMAGES Quarterback Joe Burrow led L.S.U. to a college football championship against Clemson. Page B12. These Tigers Came Out on Top VOL. CLXIX . . . No. 58,572 + © 2020 The New York Times Company NEW YORK, TUESDAY, JANUARY 14, 2020 Late Edition Today, cloudy, afternoon showers, high 48. Tonight, partly cloudy skies, mild, low 42. Tomorrow, partly sunny, mild afternoon, high 54. Weather map appears on Page A14. $3.00

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  • C M Y K Nxxx,2020-01-14,A,001,Bs-4C,E2_+_K1

    K

    U(D54G1D)y+z!%!?!$!"

    DUBUQUE, Iowa — Almost ex-actly four years ago, Donald J.Trump touched down at an airporthangar here, delivered a donationto a group that provides servicedogs to veterans and, before invit-ing a few kids to run around on hisBoeing 757, criticized the wars inthe Middle East that many localfamilies had sent their sons anddaughters to fight in.

    “I’m the guy that didn’t want togo to war,” he told a crowd of sev-eral hundred. “It’s just unjust, it’sa mess,” Mr. Trump went on,promising that if he ever did de-ploy the military anywhere, itwould be “so strong, so powerfulthat nobody is going to mess withus anymore.”

    That November, DubuqueCounty voted Republican in thepresidential election for the firsttime since 1956, when Dwight Ei-senhower was on the ballot.

    Mr. Trump’s success in placeslike Dubuque — heavily white,working class, union-friendly andCatholic — remade the Republi-can electorate. And his path to asecond term depends heavily onwhether those voters turn theirbacks on the Democratic Partyagain.

    But the specter of a new conflictin the Middle East — this timewith Iran — threatens the politicalcoalition that Mr. Trump built in2016 by running against a nationalRepublican Party that many vot-ers came to see as indifferent andunresponsive, particularly whenit came to the human cost of war.

    “All he’s been saying is, ‘We’regetting out of there, we’re gettingout of there, we’re getting out ofthere,’” said Mark Blume, a con-tractor in Dubuque who stoppedinto the local American Legion af-ter work one evening last week fora beer.

    Mr. Blume, who was raised in aDemocratic household in NewYork and said he voted for Repub-licans and Democrats in presiden-tial elections but did not vote foreither Mr. Trump or Hillary Clin-ton in 2016, expressed fatigue withthe president’s erratic style. If itweren’t for that, he would be lessuncertain about voting for Mr.Trump, who he believes has donea better than expected job as pres-ident.

    “He’s putting those kids in

    Trump 2020?Moves on Iran

    Raise Doubts

    2016 Vow Questionedby Key Constituency

    By JEREMY W. PETERS

    A hangar at the Al Asad air base in Iraq that was hit by Iranian missiles last week in a retaliatory strike against U.S. forces. Page A6.SERGEY PONOMAREV FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

    Continued on Page A13

    MILTON, W.Va. — In the earlymornings, Chastity and Paul Pey-ton walk from their small andbarely heated apartment to TacoBell to clean fryers and take or-ders for as many work hours asthey can get. It rarely adds up to afull-time week’s worth, often noteven close. With this income andwhatever cash Mr. Peyton canscrape up doing odd jobs — whichare hard to come by in a smalltown in winter, for someone with-out a car — the couple pays rent,utilities and his child support pay-ments.

    Then there is the matter of food.“We can barely eat,” Ms. Peyton

    said. She was told she would begetting food stamps again soon —a little over $2 worth a day — butthe couple was without them formonths. Sometimes they madetoo much money to qualify; some-times it was a matter of workingtoo little. There is nothing reliablebut the local food pantry.

    Four years ago, thousands ofpoor people here in Cabell Countyand eight other counties in West

    Virginia that were affected by astate policy change found them-selves having to prove that theywere working or training for atleast 20 hours a week in order tokeep receiving food stamps con-sistently. In April, under a rulechange by the Trump administra-tion, people all over the countrywho are “able-bodied adults with-out dependents” will have to dothe same.

    The policy seems straightfor-ward, but there is nothingstraightforward about the reality

    Cuts to Food Stamps Squeeze West Virginia’s Working Poor

    By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON

    Continued on Page A11

    Dinner time at a homeless mis-sion in Huntington, W.Va.

    ANDREW SPEAR FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

    With President Trump facing animpeachment trial over his effortsto pressure Ukraine to investigateformer Vice President Joseph R.Biden Jr. and his son Hunter Bi-den, Russian military hackershave been boring into the Ukrain-ian gas company at the center ofthe affair, according to securityexperts.

    The hacking attempts againstBurisma, the Ukrainian gas com-pany on whose board Hunter Bi-den served, began in early No-vember, as talk of the Bidens,Ukraine and impeachment wasdominating the news in the UnitedStates.

    It is not yet clear what the hack-ers found, or precisely what theywere searching for. But the ex-perts say the timing and scale ofthe attacks suggest that the Rus-sians could be searching for po-tentially embarrassing materialon the Bidens — the same kind ofinformation that Mr. Trumpwanted from Ukraine when hepressed for an investigation of theBidens and Burisma, setting off a

    chain of events that led to his im-peachment.

    The Russian tactics are strik-ingly similar to what American in-telligence agencies say was Rus-sia’s hacking of emails from Hilla-ry Clinton’s campaign chairmanand the Democratic NationalCommittee during the 2016 presi-dential campaign. In that case,once they had the emails, the Rus-sians used trolls to spread andspin the material, and built anecho chamber to widen its effect.

    Then, as now, the Russian hack-ers from a military intelligenceunit known formerly as theG.R.U., and to private researchersby the alias “Fancy Bear,” used so-called phishing emails that ap-

    Hackers Went to Work as Trump Inquiry BeganBy NICOLE PERLROTH

    and MATTHEW ROSENBERGTactics Imply Russians

    Sought to EmbarrassBidens on Ukraine

    Continued on Page A7

    Low in polls and money, Senator CoryBooker ended his bid to be the Demo-cratic presidential nominee. PAGE A12

    NATIONAL A10-16

    Booker Drops Out of Race

    The Trump administration formallyremoved China’s designation as a cur-rency manipulator on the eve of a tradeagreement. PAGE A9

    INTERNATIONAL A4-9

    A Concession to ChinaMore than two dozen states are ex-pected to debate issues like whethercollege athletes can cut endorsementdeals or hire agents. PAGE B12

    SPORTSTUESDAY B8-12

    Weighing College Amateurism

    Queen Elizabeth II will allow PrinceHarry and his wife, Meghan, to becomepart-time royals. PAGE A5

    Approval for Royals’ New Life

    Pennsylvania’s old steel center beganan economic revival over a decade ago.But the president may benefit. PAGE B1

    BUSINESS B1-7

    Jobs Abound in Lehigh Valley

    Tiffany & Company began renovatingits flagship store, moving 114,000 piecesto a temporary space nearby. PAGE A17

    NEW YORK A17-19

    Little Blue Boxes on the MoveAirborne toxins are not just a modernproblem; they may have helped toshape human evolution. Above, a cyclistin the New Delhi smog. PAGE D1

    SCIENCE TIMES D1-6

    The Legacy of Air Pollution

    Officials said the man and woman whokilled four at a Jersey City market alsohad a long-range bomb. PAGE A17

    New Hate Attack Details

    The film starring Joaquin Phoenix hasearned 11 nominations, with “The Irish-man,” “Once Upon a Time . . . in Holly-wood” and “1917” close behind. PAGE C1

    ARTS C1-8

    ‘Joker’ Leads Oscar Field

    Paul Krugman PAGE A22EDITORIAL, OP-ED A22-23

    It is an enduring part of base-ball strategy: As a batter is at theplate, his teammates carefullywatch a catcher’s fingers to figureout what pitch is about to bethrown.

    It is all fair play as long as teamsdo not enhance the abilities of thenaked eye and clever minds witheither cameras or electronic de-vices that allow teammates to sig-

    nal the batter whether a fastball ora breaking ball is on the way.

    But that is exactly what theHouston Astros did during their2017 championship-winning sea-son, clouding that World Series ti-tle and causing one of baseball’s

    biggest cheating scandals inyears, Major League Baseball offi-cials said on Monday in a scathingreport detailing the team’sscheme.

    By the end of the day, HoustonGeneral Manager Jeff Luhnowand Manager A.J. Hinch — thetwo men who helped propel theAstros to the top of the sport —had been suspended and thenfired, while their club was left with

    Cheating Scandal Tarnishes a World Series TitleBy JAMES WAGNER Astros Fire Two Leaders

    Suspended by M.L.B.

    Continued on Page A11

    Attorney General William P.Barr declared on Monday that adeadly shooting last month at anaval air station in Pensacola,Fla., was an act of terrorism, andhe asked Apple in an unusuallyhigh-profile request to provide ac-cess to two phones used by thegunman.

    Mr. Barr’s appeal was an esca-lation of a continuing fight be-tween the Justice Departmentand Apple pitting personal pri-vacy against public safety.

    “This situation perfectly illus-trates why it is critical that thepublic be able to get access to dig-ital evidence,” Mr. Barr said. Hecalled on technology companies tofind a solution and complainedthat Apple had provided no “sub-stantive assistance,” a charge thatthe company strongly denied onMonday night, saying it had beenworking with the F.B.I. since theday of the shooting.

    Detailing the results of the in-vestigation into the Dec. 6 shoot-ing that killed three sailors andwounded eight others, Mr. Barrsaid the gunman, Second Lt. Mo-hammed Saeed Alshamrani — aSaudi Air Force cadet trainingwith the American military — haddisplayed extremist leanings.

    Mr. Alshamrani warned on lastyear’s anniversary of the Sept. 11,2001, attacks that “the countdownhas begun” and posted other anti-American, anti-Israeli and jihadistsocial media messages, somewithin hours of attacking the base,Mr. Barr said. “The evidenceshows that the shooter was moti-vated by jihadist ideology,” the at-torney general said.

    The government has also re-moved from the country some 21Saudi students who trained withthe American military, Mr. Barrsaid. He stressed that investiga-tors found no connection to theshooting among the cadets, butsaid that some had links to extre-mist movements or possessedchild pornography. Mr. Barr saidthe cases were too weak to pros-ecute but that Saudi Arabia kickedthe trainees out of the program.

    The battle between the govern-ment and technology companiesover advanced encryption and

    Clash LoomingIn Bid to OpenKiller’s iPhones

    Barr Presses Apple onPensacola Shooting

    By KATIE BENNER

    Continued on Page A16

    LONDON — Iran is caught in awretched economic crisis. Jobsare scarce. Prices for food andother necessities are skyrocket-ing. The economy is rapidlyshrinking. Iranians are increas-ingly disgusted.

    Crippling sanctions imposed bythe Trump administration havesevered Iran’s access to interna-tional markets, decimating theeconomy, which is contracting atan alarming 9.5 percent annualrate, the International MonetaryFund estimated. Oil exports wereeffectively zero in December, ac-cording to Oxford Economics, asthe sanctions have preventedsales, though smugglers havetransported unknown volumes.

    The bleak economy appears tobe tempering the willingness ofIran to escalate hostilities with theUnited States, its leaders cog-nizant that war could profoundlyworsen national fortunes. In re-cent months, public anger overjoblessness, economic anxietyand corruption has emerged as apotentially existential threat toIran’s hard-line government.

    Only a week ago, such senti-ments had been redirected by out-rage over the Trump administra-tion’s Jan. 3 killing of Iran’s topmilitary commander, Maj. Gen.Qassim Suleimani. But protestsflared anew over the weekend inTehran, and then continued onMonday, after the government’sastonishing admission that it was— despite three days of denial —responsible for shooting down aUkrainian jetliner.

    The demonstrations were mostpointedly an expression of con-tempt for the government’s cover-up after its downing of the Ukrain-ian jet, which killed all 176 peopleon board. But the fury in thestreets resonated as a rebuke forbroader grievances — diminish-ing livelihoods, financial anxiety

    BROKEN ECONOMYMAY KEEP TEHRANFROM WAGING WAR

    THREAT TO HARD-LINERS

    Hostilities Toward U.S.Could Further Strap

    Angry Population

    By PETER S. GOODMAN

    Continued on Page A6

    Elizabeth Warren said Bernie Sandersonce told her a woman couldn’t win thepresidency. He denied it. PAGE A13

    A Crack in Candidates’ Bond

    NEW MESSAGE “It doesn’t reallymatter” why he ordered a killing,the president wrote. PAGE A15

    JONATHAN BACHMAN/GETTY IMAGES

    Quarterback Joe Burrow led L.S.U. to a college football championship against Clemson. Page B12.These Tigers Came Out on Top

    VOL. CLXIX . . . No. 58,572 + © 2020 The New York Times Company NEW YORK, TUESDAY, JANUARY 14, 2020

    Late EditionToday, cloudy, afternoon showers,high 48. Tonight, partly cloudyskies, mild, low 42. Tomorrow, partlysunny, mild afternoon, high 54.Weather map appears on Page A14.

    $3.00