from warsaw to paris: expectations for a new international agreement on climate change

International climate policy From Warsaw to Paris

Ecofys webinar

Dr. Niklas Höhne, [email protected]

30/01/2014

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International climate policy

30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, [email protected] 2

The EU has saved the climate negotiations…

… but not yet the climate.

We need an emergency plan!

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Effi

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coo

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Glo

bal

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(GtC

O2

e/a

)

Included in low ambition pledgeIncluded only in high ambition pledgeAdditional to pledges

2° C range

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2010 2015 2020

Glo

bal G

HG

em

issio

ns (

GtC

O2e/a

)

Ambitious end of national reduction

proposals 50 GtCO2e

Confirmed national reduction

proposals 55 GtCO2e

Business as usual56 GtCO2e

Photo: Leila Mead/IISD

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Timeline of the UN climate negotiations


1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto

Protocol

2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol

Objective: “Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Principle: “The Parties should protect the climate system on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.”

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Protocol


> Emission reduction targets for developed countries (in aggregate 5% below 1990 in 2008 to 2012)

> Flexibility in reaching targets International emission trading / joint

implementation Clean Development Mechanism (offset projects)

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Protocol


First Kyoto Protocol

Then treaty with all

countries

No Kyoto Protocol

First a treaty with all

countries

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Protocol


2007 Bali Action Plan

2009

Copenhagen

2011 Cancun Agreements

2012 Durban platform

2015 New agreement

2020

Kyoto Protocol track

UNFCCC track

Durban Platform > Copenhagen Accord agreed – falling short of expectations

> But All countries agreed that global temperature increase

should be limited to 2°C

All major emitters proposed emission reduction targets for 2020

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Protocol



2009

Copenhagen



2015 New agreement

2020


UNFCCC track

Durban Platform

First Kyoto Protocol

Then treaty with all

countries

No Kyoto Protocol

First a treaty with all

countries

Ok, Kyoto

Protocol only for

the EU, but only

with a date for a

treaty with all

countries

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Protocol



2009

Copenhagen



2015 New agreement

2020


UNFCCC track

Durban Platform

Photo: Flickr/UNFCCC

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Climate negotiations over time


Emission reductions

> Agreement of limit global temperature increase to 2°C

> Emission reduction proposals for all major countries for 2020

> Kyoto Protocol with moderate targets until 2020 and limited participation

Financing

> From 10 billion US$ (2010/11/12) to 100 billion US$ per year (2020)

> Green Climate Fund as new financing channel

> New forms of cooperation, e.g. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), forestry (REDD+)

Reporting

> Biennial reporting of emissions and policies

30/01/2014 9

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What could be in a 2015 agreement?

> Global goal, e.g. “phase out of global

greenhouse gas emissions by 2050”

> National emissions reduction commitments

> Commitments on financial contributions

> Measures and goals for adaptation

A possible proposal: Haites et al. 2013 http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Collections/Idees-pour-le-

debat/WP1613_EH%20FY%20NH_legal%20agreement%202015.pdf


Proposal:

Commitment and

equity principle

Technical review

and questions

Final 2020-23 Commitment

More ambitious 2024-27

commitment

Sufficient?

YesYes

No

30/01/2014 10

http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Collections/Idees-pour-le-debat/WP1613_EH FY NH_legal agreement 2015.pdf







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The emissions gap


www.climateactiontracker.org

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EU


> 20% below 1990 in 2020

> 30% below 1990 if there is a global ambitious agreement

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USA


> 17% below 2005

> Possible if new climate plan is really implemented

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China


> Pledge: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005 by 2020, share of non-fossil fuels of 15% by 2020, forest cover

> Policies: top 10 000 company programme, support for renewables, low carbon zones, emission trading systems, efficiency standards for cars and trucks, regional ban of new coal fired power plants, …

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National climate policy


Countries

responsible for 67%

of global emissions

have national

climate legislation or

strategy

Source:

Dubash et al. 2013

http://dx.doi.org/10.1

080/14693062.2013.

845409

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2013.845409

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2013.845409

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2013.845409

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Climate Action Tracker


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Simple view Complex view


UNFCCC

climate treaty

National government

action

Source: Draft of IPCC Fifth

Assessment Report

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Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global

action on climate change


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op

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ns

Ph

asin

g o

ut

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ies

for

foss

il fu

els

Inte

rnat

ion

al a

viat

ion

an

d m

arit

ime

tra

nsp

ort

Flu

ori

nat

ed

gas

es

init

iati

ve

Re

du

ce d

efo

rest

atio

n

Agr

icu

ltu

re

Sho

rt li

ved

clim

ate

fo

rce

rs

Effi

cie

nt

coo

ksto

ves

Glo

bal

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(GtC

O2

e/a

)

Included in low ambition pledgeIncluded only in high ambition pledgeAdditional to pledges

2° C range

44

46

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50

52

54

56

2010 2015 2020

Glo

bal G

HG

em

issio

ns (

GtC

O2e/a

)

Ambitious end of national reduction

proposals 50 GtCO2e

Confirmed national reduction

proposals 55 GtCO2e

Business as usual56 GtCO2e

Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.html



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Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global

action on climate change


Top-1000 companies emission reduction

Supply chain emission reductions

Green financial institutions

Voluntary offset companies

Companies’ emissions

Voluntary offsets consumers

Major cities initiative

Sub-national governments

Other actors

Buildings heating and cooling

Ban of incandescent lamps

Electric appliances

Cars and trucks emission reductions

Energy efficiency

Intl. aviation and maritime transport

Fluorinated gases initiative

Reduce deforestation

Agriculture

Special sectors

Methane and other air pollutants

Efficient cook stoves

Methane and other air pollutants

Boost solar photovoltaic energy

Boost wind energy

Access energy through low emission options

Energy supply

Phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels

Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change




© ECOFYS | |

Cooperative initiatives


> Energy efficiency with significant potential, up to 2 GtCO2e by 2020. It is

already covered by a substantial number of initiatives. Focus and coherency

is needed.

> Fossil-fuel subsidy reform with varying estimates of the reduction

potential: 0.4–2 GtCO2e by 2020. The number of initiatives and clear

commitments in this area is limited.

> Methane and other short-lived climate pollutants as a mix of several

sources. Reducing methane emissions from fossil-fuel production has

received particular attention in the literature. This area is covered by several

specific initiatives and one that is overarching.

> Renewable energy with particularly large potential: 1–3 GtCO2e by 2020.

Several initiatives have been started in this area. Focus and coherency is

needed.

Quelle: UNEP emissions gap report

http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2013/

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Thank you for your attention!

Ecofys Germany GmbH

Dr. Niklas Höhne

Am Wassermann 36

50829 Cologne

Germany

T: +49 (0)221 27070-101

E: [email protected]

I: www.ecofys.com


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Historical emissions


1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3x 10

7 Annex I

Em

issio

ns in T

g C

O2eq.

Year

N2OCH4Forestry CO2Fossil CO2

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3x 10

7 Non-Annex I

Em

issio

ns in T

g C

O2eq.

Year

N2OCH4Forestry CO2Fossil CO2

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The challenges of 2°C with current pledges


0

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Glo

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GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(GtC

O2

e)

Year

Historical emissions

1996 - EU agrees on 2°C limit, which meant - Ambitious but realistic reduction rates

- Delayed participation of developing countries possible - Choice of technology possible

- Opportunities for innovation and energy security

2012 - Today: 2°C limit means - Last chance, action before 2020 necessary

- Instantaneous change by all actors - Opportunities for innovation and energy security

- Unprecedented reduction rates necessary

Future emissions

given pledges

2020 – planned entry into force of new climate agreement: 2°C limit means

- High probability that 2°C limit is missed - Instantaneous change by all actors

- Unprecedented reduction rates necessary - All technologies necessary

- Shutdown of equipment before its end of life

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Decisions in Warsaw on the timing of commitments

Dr. Niklas Höhne, [email protected] 30/01/2014 26

> “… initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their intended nationally determined contributions… and to communicate them well in advance of [COP21 (2015)] (by the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties ready to do so)”

> “identify, by [COP20 (2014)] the information that Parties will provide when putting forward their contributions”

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Decision in Warsaw on pre-2020 ambition

> “Intensifying, as from 2014, the technical examination of opportunities for

actions with high mitigation potential, … with a view to promoting voluntary

cooperation …

> … sharing … of experiences and best practices of cities and subnational

authorities…”

Dr. Niklas Höhne, [email protected] 30/01/2014 27

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Possible processes to determine commitments


Equity Reference

Framework (optional)

Proposals

Negotiations

Review

of aggregated

proposals

Individual review

Fixing in agreement

Ratchet up (optional)

Sufficient?

YesNo

Sufficient?

Yes No

Agreed?

Yes

No

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from warsaw to paris: expectations for a new international agreement on climate change

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