frontier and emerging markets macro outlook electric power

Frontier and emerging markets macro outlookElectric power to the people

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1

Renaissance Capital 30 April 2018

Thoughts from a Renaissance man

GDP outlook 3

Credit ratings 8

Frontier markets and the CIS/Saudi 9

Africa 10

Lending 12

Currency outlook 17

Emerging markets 17

Frontier markets 19

Africa 22

Macro conclusions 24

Electricity 25

Best snippet on electricity – from prehistoric fires to LED lights 28

Where is the world today in terms of kWh electricity consumption? 31

Countries that can’t industrialise yet – less than 300 kWh per capita 35

Countries that could industrialise – 300-500 kWh / capita 37

Countries that have industrialised – 1,000-1,500 kWh per capita 40

High electricity – 1500 kWh and above 41

Can high investment/GDP compensate for low electricity 43

Conclusion 45

Countries 48

Contents

Charles Robertson +44 (207) 005-7835 [email protected] Mobile +44 7747 118 756

@RenCapMan Daniel Salter +44 (207) 005-7824 [email protected] Yvonne Mhango +27 (11) 750-1488 [email protected] Oleg Kouzmin +7 (495) 258-7770 x 4506 [email protected] Vikram Lopez +44 (207) 005-7824 [email protected]



2



This is our primary macro outlook piece for the rest of 2018. We are no longer more

bullish than consensus on US/EU growth. We still think emerging markets (EM) and

frontier markets (FM) are less than half-way through a structural bull market. The

big shift in our thinking is on the oil exporters. MENA is looking much healthier,

from Egypt (we’re still bullish) to the UAE in EM. We think Russia and SA can beat

IMF GDP forecasts in 2018/2019. Nigeria is a big beneficiary in Africa.

But really, we want to talk about electricity. Last year, we argued countries needed 70-

80% adult literacy to grow fast. Most African and Frontier credits we follow have hit that

target. This year, we argue that countries must also have at least 300-500 kWh of

electricity per capita to grow sustainably at a fast rate. To put that into perspective, one

LCD TV requires about 240 kWh pa.

Most EM countries meet both targets, including for the first time this decade Egypt and

India. The situation is far more mixed in FM. Argentina and Vietnam do, of course, along

with the countries in Emerging Europe. Morocco and Tunisia have joined them recently

and so has Sri Lanka. We are bullish on them all.

Where it gets more complicated is Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Until 2000, virtually none

met the literacy target, but that has changed dramatically for the better. Yet there are still

acute shortfalls on electricity supply in East Africa, and most of West Africa. We think

Zambia looks really good, as does Zimbabwe (it had both literacy and electricity in the

1980s and had industrialised, then blew it all with bad policies) and we think Ghana could

join them. But we need to see electricity supply at least double or treble per capita in East

Africa and the rest of West Africa before industrialisation is realistic. Our base case is that

countries that can’t industrialise (or shift from subsistence agriculture into higher valued-

added services) can’t grow much above 4-5% (1-2% in per capita terms).

There appears to be one exception to this though. If you invest 25% of GDP or more, then

Bangladesh, Ethiopia and others demonstrate sustainable high growth can still happen.

This is good news for Tanzania and perhaps Uganda but sends a clear message to

Kenya, Nigeria, Egypt and Pakistan about their urgent need for electricity and investment.

On a one-year horizon in EM, aside from Egypt and the Gulf, we like Greece (credit rating

upgrades, accelerating growth), and macro trends are reasonably positive in South Africa

(SA) and Russia. Central Europe has slowing GDP and little or no credit growth, but long

overdue credit rating upgrades. We think Turkey is messy, but we are still tempted by

one-year T-bills.

In FM, we are bullish on Nigeria (good growth, currency stability, falling interest rates) and

like growth picking up in Kenya. Bank lending is booming in South Asia and we like Sri

Lanka most. Pakistan still has to get July elections (and probably one more devaluation)

out of the way, before the next reform cycle can get underway. Francophone West Africa

is also seeing strong bank lending and high GDP growth, while deleveraging is still the

story in most of Anglophone Africa. The credit rating downgrade cycle in Africa has

basically finished; we think sovereign upgrades in 2019 is the story to start thinking about.

Vietnam still looks good to us. Kazakhstan should be good (higher oil, cheap currency),

but is held back by deleveraging and its proximity to geopolitically sensitive Russia.

Argentina has got more complicated (slowing growth, high inflation), but may benefit as

Latin America (LatAm) as a whole looks like one of the most interesting themes for EM in

the coming 12 months.

Overall, we think most of EM is in a good place, and EEMEA is fairly insensitive to US

and China wrestling about trade. Africa is on the rise again, but to really take off, needs

more investment and electricity in many of the countries we cover. Let’s make it happen.

3



Unlike October 2017 when we felt IMF and Bloomberg consensus were understating the US

and Eurozone growth trajectory and the Fed funds hiking profile (then two-to-three hikes),

we have no big picture disagreement with current IMF and consensus growth expectations.

We do, however, draw your attention to the change in growth rates. This year, the IMF sees

MENA accelerating the most, followed by LatAm and the Caribbean, and then SSA.

Asian growth is expected to be flat at around 6.5%. The big negative in 2018 and 2019 is in

Emerging and Developing Europe; this is mainly a Turkey story.

Figure 1: We see no reason today to disagree that the US will grow by nearly 3% in 2018 and the Eurozone by around 2.5%

Source: IMF

The LatAm regional story is seen in the rapid growth acceleration forecast for Chile,

Brazil, Peru and Colombia within EM. In our EEMEA remit, only the UAE, Egypt and

Greece show significant acceleration in IMF numbers. Decelerating growth is most

pronounced in Turkey, along with Czechia and Poland, Taiwan and Malaysia – ie

industrial nations.

Heading into 2019, it is again LatAm (Mexico – presumably hostage to 1 July 2018

election risks, Colombia) and the UAE in the top-three spots, with Central Europe and

Pakistan weakening. Note, we think both Russia and SA may grow by around 2% in 2018

which would give them similar acceleration to Greece in 2018 and SA might be closer to

2.5% next year giving a similar acceleration to Colombia in 2019.

3.9

2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5

4.9

2.2

6.5

4.3

5.3

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3.2 3.4

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Regional GDP growth forecasts of the IMF, 2017-19, plus the change in those rates relative to the previous year

2017 2018 2019 ppt 2018/2017 ppt 2019/2018

GDP outlook

4



Figure 2: LatAm and not Emerging Europe should be doing best in 2018

Source: IMF

In MSCI Frontier markets, we see the same theme of Emerging European deceleration,

while the fastest acceleration is expected in oil producers and Serbia. Kenya, Sri Lanka

and Tunisia also warrant positive attention. One surprise in the forecasts is the IMF

assumption of Nigeria growing faster than Argentina, but that is expected to reverse in

2019. Our SSA economist Yvonne Mhango is considerably more bullish than the IMF on

Nigeria – expecting 2.9% growth (a 2.1-ppt improvement). Morocco’s slowdown this year

is also expected to reverse next year (usually varying agricultural harvests explains GDP

variation here).

Figure 3: Oil exporters will see the best growth acceleration in 2018. Emerging Europe the biggest deceleration

Source: IMF

-3.0

-2.0

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EM GDP growth forecasts of the IMF, 2017-19, plus the change in those rates relative to the previous year

2017 2018 2019 ppt 2018/17 ppt 2019/18

Biggest acceleration in 2018: Chile (1.9), UAE (1.4), Brazil (1.3), Peru (1.2), Egypt (1.0), Colombia (1.0), Greece (0.7)Biggest deceleration in 2018: Turkey (-2.6), Taiwan (-0.9), Czechia (-0.8), Malaysia (-0.6), Poland (-0.5)Biggest acceleration in 2019: UAE (1.1), Mexico (0.8), Colombia (0.5)Biggest deceleration in 2019: Pakistan (-0.9), Hungary (-0.8), Poland (-0.5), Czechia (-0.5)

7.47.0 7.0

6.6

5.55.1

4.0 4.0 3.9 3.93.5

3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.82.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0

1.5 1.3

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FM GDP growth forecasts of the IMF, 2017-19, plus the change in those rates relative to the previous year

2017 2018 2019 ppt 2018/17 ppt 2019/18

Biggest growth acceleration in 2018 and 2019: Kuwait, Oman, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Kenya, TunisiaBiggest growth deceleration in 2018 and 2019: Romania, Slovenia, Estonia, Kazakhstan

5



In the Beyond Frontier countries, again oil exporters come out best, from Republic of

Congo (where GDP growth is expected to accelerate by a stunning 9.2 ppts between

2017 and 2019) to Azerbaijan. Africa looks good, as befits the third-fastest accelerating

region noted in the first graph above. While Armenia and Tajikistan are expected to halve

their growth rates after a stellar (and unexpected) 2017 growth performance, the 3-4%

growth rate for 2018 is expected to stabilise at the same level in 2019. Only Ethiopia is

expected to keep slowing for two consecutive years.

Figure 4: Oil exporters and African countries are forecast to see strong growth acceleration

Source: IMF

One additional graph on Africa which may be interesting is the dollar GDP estimates of

the IMF. We think if market exchange rates were used for Nigeria (as they are for SA),

then SA was the biggest economy in Africa in 2017 and is expected to be again in 2018.

But to be consistent, we should probably downgrade Angola to come in behind Morocco,

and Ethiopia (where the exchange rate is overvalued and determined by the authorities)

to come in behind Kenya (overvalued but not artificially so), and Zimbabwe to come in

behind Botswana and Senegal and maybe a few others too. We think official IMF

estimates putting Africa’s GDP at $2.2trn in 2017 and $2.4trn in 2018 are at least $100bn

too high due to Nigeria alone.

5.04.5

4.0 4.03.4 3.2 2.8

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2017 2018 2019 ppt 2018/17 ppt 2019/18

Most of these African credits will see significant acceleration in GDP in 2018 and 2019. Ethiopia has the only big deceleration.

Clear winners are Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia. The big deceleration is coming in Armenia and Tajikistan.

6



Figure 5: How big was Africa's GDP in 2017? We may never know (orange countries are where we have good reason to question the exchange rate)

Source: IMF

Lastly, we like to keep our world view in perspective and win pub quizzes, by knowing the

top-20 economies by rank. We have added US state GDP data, and our estimate for

Africa’s GDP.

We would draw attention to three points. First, our summer piece in 2014 suggesting that

Russia would not catch up with California before 2029 remains on track (indeed, 2029

looks overly optimistic right now)1. Second, for as long as we can remember, Turkey has

been targeting 10th place globally, but it keeps being 17th. Third, Saudi Arabia still has a

smaller economy than the first home of the oil industry, Pennsylvania.

1 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Mash-up summer 2014 – GDP ranks, published on 13 August 2014 when Brent that day was $104/bl.

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2017 2018

We might never agree on who was the biggest economy in 2017. The IMF says Nigeria but that's based on exchange rates that few transact at - we include alternative exchange rates which puts Nigeria behind SA in 2017 and 2018. If you take IMF data, Africa was $2.2trn in 2017 and $2.4trn in 2018.Based on our alternative NGN/$ measures, you get $2.1trn in 2017 and $2.3trn in 2018.Lastly, to be consistent, we should offer alternative exchanges rates for Angola, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe and others too.Officially, Nigeria was biggest in 2017 and is forecast to be again in 2018.

http://research.rencap.com/eng/download.asp?id=17846

7



Figure 6: The top-20 economies in the world in $bn (countries in red, continents in green, states in blue)

Source: IMF, BEA, Renaissance Capital estimates

Conclusion: The positive global growth trends are feeding into oil exporters, LatAm and

Africa. Emerging Europe is where growth prospects are deteriorating the most. Within

MSCI EEMEA, the IMF is most positive on the UAE and Greece, and we see some

upside surprise in SA and Russia. We think Nigeria will grow closer to 3% than the 2%

forecast by the IMF. Aside from oil exporters, Sri Lanka and Kenya are picking up too.

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The top 20 countries by GDP in current dollars, in 2017, with US state GDP (2016 data) for the sake of comparison.

You can add 4-5% to the US figures to estimate 2017. So New York was probably around $1.56 trn in 2017, and bigger than Korea or Russia, and Illinois was probably bigger than the Netherlands.

After adjusting Nigeria's GDP using market exchange rates, we estimate Africa was bigger than the 8th largest economy, Brazil.

Turkey remains the 17th largest economy.

8



Below we outline our credit ratings views for MSCI EEMEA credits, MSCI Frontier credits

and some other sovereign bond issuers in the CIS and Africa.

Fitch has Czechia on a positive outlook and may finally become the first agency to move

the rating up since 2011 (this is long overdue, in our view). It should be helped by FX

reserves exploding from $86bn in 2016 to $150bn (March 2018) which is roughly 60% of

GDP, since the removal of the EUR/CZK floor. Hungary has two positive outlooks and we

have improved our view to assume a rating upgrade this year. Poland too has a positive

outlook from S&P which surprised us slightly by downgrading in 2016, but we assume it

will only get a rating upgrade in 2019. We assume further upgrades for Greece, which

has a positive outlook from all three agencies.

We still think Egypt should be upgraded this year. Two agencies give it a positive outlook.

Russia is more complicated. It was upgraded by S&P this year already and both the other

two agencies have it on a positive outlook. Oil prices are well above finance ministry

expectations and a reform-minded government is likely to be appointed in May 2018. Set

against this are the recent imposition of additional US sanctions and a further

deterioration of relations with the EU. Given (we think low) potential sanctions risk on

Russian sovereign bonds, we expect the rating agencies will do nothing on a three-month

horizon and see the chance of another upgrade towards year-end.

Turkey is another wait-and-see, as early elections on 24 June mean the authorities may

be a little less unorthodox afterwards. Only S&P has it on a negative outlook. We suspect

no change, but recognise further downside risk.

Qatar is also complicated. Geopolitics could trigger a sharp change in relations with fellow

GCC states and we can’t call that. Debt metrics have worsened dramatically in recent

years, but in 2018 energy prices have rebounded to higher-than-expected levels. Neither

Moody’s in January or S&P in February cut the rating. With three agencies all having a

negative outlook, we think it is still reasonable to assume at least one downgrade comes

in July, but we have more doubts than six month ago.

We assume no change in the UAE, and no change in Pakistan but acknowledge some

downside risk despite the positive moves on the currency.

Figure 7: MSCI EM composite credit rating score, where B3/B- = 0, Baa3/BBB- = 6, etc

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Change in 2018 (already or by year-end)

Czech Republic 10.0 10.3 10.7 10.7 10.7 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 Up Egypt 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Up Hungary 8.7 8.7 7.7 7.0 6.0 5.3 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Up Greece 11.0 11.0 11.0 8.7 5.3 -4.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.3 -2.0 -1.7 -0.7 0.7 Up Pakistan 2.0 2.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 Flat (-) Poland 8.7 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.0 9.0 9.0 Flat (+) Qatar 11.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 Down Russia 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 6.7 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.7 Up SA 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 7.7 7.3 7.0 6.3 6.3 5.0 5.0 Flat Turkey 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.0 4.7 4.3 Down UAE 12.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 Flat

Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

Credit ratings

9



Frontier markets and the CIS/Saudi

The downgrades we assumed at the time of our last report for Bahrain, Oman and Kenya

have all been delivered, along with a cut for Tunisia (we saw a flat rating with downside

risk). Oman still has two negative outlooks, Bahrain just one and Kenya and Tunisia have

none. Both Moody’s and Fitch look relatively exposed with Oman as an investment grade

credit, two notches above S&P, and three to four notches above Bahrain.

An upgrade for Argentina has also been delivered in line with our expectations – we are

not sure if another (most likely by Fitch) will be delivered given twin deficits and slippage

on inflation.

We were slightly surprised by upgrades for Croatia and Lithuania (we saw flat with

upside risk for both). We did not expect either of the two upgrades Slovenia received.

Estonia may join them in the upgrade camp.

We are still waiting for a Vietnam upgrade. Both Moody’s and Fitch have it on a positive

outlook. Inflation has halved from the 5.2% peak in early 2017. The C/A is in surplus and

the primary budget deficit has fallen below 3% of GDP.

Two other economies we are bullish on over the medium-to-long term are Sri Lanka

(negative outlook from Moody’s) and Morocco (positive from Moody’s). Our bias is to

assume no change in Sri Lanka (but we accept there is downside risk) and we now

assume an upward shift in Morocco.

In Beyond Frontier MENA and the CIS, we no longer assume an upgrade from Moody’s

for Ukraine (we see it as an upside risk). Belarus has already been given the upgrades

we expected. Armenia might be a realistic upgrade candidate if political uncertainty is

resolved in coming weeks.

Figure 8: MSCI FM, CIS and Saudi Arabia composite credit rating score where B3/B- = 0, Baa3/BBB- = 6, etc

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Argentina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 -1.7 -3.7 -6.3 -6.3 0.3 1.3 1.3 Flat (+) Bahrain 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.7 7.3 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 2.3 Down Bangladesh 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Flat Croatia 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.3 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.7 Up Estonia 10.3 10.0 9.3 10.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 Flat (+) Jordan 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 Flat (-) Kazakhstan 6.5 6.0 6.0 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.0 7.7 7.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Flat Kenya 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 Down Kuwait 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 Flat Lebanon 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 Flat Lithuania 10.0 8.7 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.7 8.7 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.3 Up Mauritius 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Flat Morocco 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 Up Nigeria 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 Flat Oman 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 9.5 7.0 5.7 5.3 Down Romania 6.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Flat Serbia 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.7 3.7 Flat (+) Slovenia 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 11.7 8.7 7.3 7.3 7.7 8.3 9.3 9.3 Flat (+) Sri Lanka 2.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 Flat (-) Tunisia 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.5 Down Vietnam 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 Up Beyond Frontier

Saudi Arabia 11.3 11.7 11.7 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.3 12.0 10.7 10.3 10.3 Flat Armenia 3.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 Flat (+) Azerbaijan 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 4.7 4.7 Flat Belarus 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.7 Up Georgia 2.5 1.5 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 Flat Tajikistan 0.0 0.0 Flat Ukraine 2.7 1.7 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.7 -0.3 -2.7 -1.7 -1.7 -0.7 -0.7 Flat (+)


10



Africa

In our 2018 outlook forecast for the continent, we expected only a downgrade in Kenya

(North Africa is covered above). That has been downgraded and Angola too (we had flat

with downside risk). With rising oil and FX reserves, we have removed the downside risk

for Nigeria’s rating. After the heavy downgrade cycle of 2014-2017, we think it is too early

to talk about SSA upgrades in 2018. But upgrades will be a possibility for a few in 2019,

which we will consider in our 4Q report.

Figure 9: African composite credit rating scores, where B3/B- = 0, Baa3/BBB- = 6, etc

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Ivory Coast 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 Flat (-) Ethiopia 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Flat Ghana 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Flat Kenya 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 Down Nigeria 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 Flat Angola 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 Down Gabon 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.5 Flat (-) Mozambique 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.7 0.7 -5.0 -5.7 -5.7 Flat Senegal 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 Flat Zambia 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 Flat (-) Rwanda 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 Flat Cameroon 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Flat Namibia 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 Flat (-) Republic of Congo 2.3 2.3 2.0 0.7 -1.7 -1.7 Flat Tanzania 2.0 Flat


11



Figure 10: Rating and interest rate decision calendar

Moody's Standard and Poor's Fitch Interest rates

decisions Elections

27-Apr-18 Botswana Botswana Ukraine CBR

2-May-18 US Fed

4-May-18 Georgia Estonia, Rwanda

11-May-18 Slovenia Egypt, Oman Cameroon

18-May-18 Namibia 17 May Egypt

25-May-18 Burkina Faso, South Africa 21 May Nigeria, 22-24 May SARB

1-Jun-18 Hungary Bahrain, Bulgaria Bulgaria

8-Jun-18 Iraq, Kuwait Estonia, UAE Poland 7 Jun Turkey

13-Jun-18 US Fed

14-Jun-28 ECB

15-Jun-18 Senegal, Serbia, Slovenia, Uganda Armenia, Serbia CBR

22-Jun-18 24th June Turkey 26-Jul-18 ECB

29-Jun-18 28 Jun Egypt

6-Jul-18 Croatia, Romania 1 July, Mexico 13-Jul-18 Qatar Turkey 15 July, Pakistan 20-Jul-18 Estonia Czech Republic, Greece, Kuwait, Russia Belarus 17-19 July SARB, 22 Jul Nigeria,

27-Jul-18 Zambia Azerbaijan, Qatar Azerbaijan CBR, 24 Jul Turkey 29 July Zimbabwe 1-Aug-18 US Fed

3-Aug-18 DR Congo, Mozambique Czech Republic

10-Aug-18 Lithuania Angola, Rwanda Greece, Lithuania, Slovenia

17-Aug-18 Bahrain, Croatia, Egypt Hungary, Turkey Russia 16 Aug Egypt

24-Aug-18 Romania Iraq, Tajikistan, Zambia Georgia

31-Aug-18 Serbia Lebanon, Lithuania, Romania Hungary

7-Sep-18 Kazakhstan

13-Sep-18 ECB

14-Sep-18 Poland Nigeria, Ghana CBR, 13 Sep Turkey

21-Sep-18 Ethiopia, Greece, Uganda Congo (Rep), Croatia, Jordan, Kenya Mozambique 18-20th Sep SARB, 22 Sep Nigeria

26-Sep-18 US Fed

28-Sep-18 Bulgaria Kazakhstan 27 Sep Egypt

5-Oct-18 Belarus, Morocco, Saudi Arabia Estonia, Gabon

12-Oct-18 Czech Republic, Saudi

Arabia, South Africa Cameroon, Ethiopia, Poland Poland

19-Oct-18 Ukraine 20 Oct – Georgia, presidential

25-Oct-18 ECB, Turkey

26-Oct-18 Botswana Ukraine CBR

2-Nov-18 Slovenia Georgia Rwanda 6 November – US mid-terms

8-Nov-18 US Fed

9-Nov-18 Botswana Egypt, Oman Cameroon, Serbia

16-Nov-18 Oman Bulgaria, Romania 15 Nov Egypt

23-Nov-18 Hungary Burkina Faso, South Africa 20-22 Nov SARB, 22 Nov Nigeria

30-Nov-18 Bahrain, Bulgaria, UAE Armenia

7-Dec-18 Iraq, Namibia Estonia, Qatar Croatia

13-Dec-18 ECB, Turkey

14-Dec-18 Kuwait Senegal, Serbia, Slovenia Turkey CBR

19-Dec-18 US Fed

21-Dec-18

28-Dec-18 27 Dec Egypt

Source: S&P, Moody’s, Fitch, Bloomberg

12



We think the most interesting theme in many of our markets is too little debt. The IMF in

its latest Fiscal Monitor is warning about record levels of government debt, but not until to

page 30 of that report does it mention private sector debt. It then admits that 75% of all

growth in private sector debt globally since the global financial crisis (GFC) has been in

China, which implies a very different story is at play elsewhere. Indeed, what we find

striking is the deleveraging we see around so many markets.

Central Europe and Greece taken together have less private sector debt (as a percentage

of GDP) than a decade ago. This is despite super low interest rates in Central Europe,

booming wages and plunging unemployment. If ever Central Europe should be borrowing,

we think it is now, and yet it is not. This might be connected to ageing populations, or

more cautious banks and consumers after the GFC, or maybe we are just a little impatient

and the lending rise is yet to come.

Whatever the reason, the important implication is that overheating is less likely when it is

driven only by wages growth, rather than wages growth AND credit growth. We do expect

to see C/A deterioration in Central Europe and maybe inflation later in the cycle, but this

will be less dramatic without credit growth. Real estate and other asset prices will get less

of a lift, and central banks can afford to be slower to react with interest rate hikes.

Figure 11: The stock of lending to other sectors (mainly the private sector) as a % of GDP in EEMEA, China and India

Note: Some countries such as China, India and the UAE only provide data for the private sector, not "other sectors" (eg, local government loans as well)

Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital

Egypt and SA have cut their private sector debt burdens by around 10 ppts of GDP. This

has been offset by a larger rise in public debt in Egypt. We assume bank lending will

begin picking up in Egypt in fiscal year 2018/19 as interest rates continue to fall and GDP

accelerates. SA might see some modest improvement in sluggish lending growth since

the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as ANC leader and president.

The oil and gas exporters, Russia, UAE and Qatar have all seen a significant rise in the

debt stock, partly because the GDP denominator took a beating when energy prices fell

after 2014. We think Russia has scope to lift its figure because inflation has fallen to low

single digits. This is subject to loan-to-deposit limitations and official caution about

allowing a boom-bust private sector debt cycle.

54%50%

98%

73%

55% 52%

40%

87%

33%

81%

102%

49%

60%

39%

98%

37%

60%

104%

63%

77%70%

90%

44%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

CzechRepublic

Egypt Greece Hungary Poland Qatar Russia South Africa Turkey UAE China India

The stock of private sector debt is broadly flat or down in 6 out of 10 EEMEA markets

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Data labels for 2007 and 2017

Lending

https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http:%2F%2Fwww.imf.org%2F~%2Fmedia%2FFiles%2FPublications%2Ffiscal-monitor%2F2018%2FApril%2Fpdf%2Ffmc1.ashx%3Fla%3Den&data=02%7C01%7CCRobertson%40rencap.com%7C8a8707cbfabe485d63d508d5a5dc6944%7C23c1dac46ed145b286ca651a98d50534%7C0%7C0%7C636597288468461515&sdata=znxVQdQVI%2Fe3HtyxdMuY%2B0EiXjVCF3GX08hoTQAtl2Q%3D&reserved=0

13



Within EEMEA, it is Turkey’s rise that is most concerning. While partly justified by falling

interest rates, the private sector debt rise has come at the expense of worse loan-to-

deposit ratios which might contribute to a Turkey crisis in the next year or two2. A

president demanding low interest rates and discouraging the central bank from operating

as quickly or transparently as it might like, feeds this risk.

We include China and India as there is an interesting contrast. Growth of 6-7% in the

former and 7-8% in the latter, with and without debt respectively, suggests the quality of

growth in India is better.

LatAm comes out well in the GDP growth acceleration charts, and a clearer rising private

sector theme as well, with the glaring exception of Brazil. The deep deleveraging helps explain

the record low Selic rate in Brazil. Argentina, Colombia and Mexico appear interesting.

Figure 12: The stock of lending to other sectors (mainly the private sector) as % of GDP, 2006-2018


Within FM, the deleveraging theme compared with a decade ago is again obvious. We

think there is dramatic scope for more bank lending in both Romania and Kazakhstan, but

both were hit hard by the GFC and credit growth remains very far from the 20%+ growth

rates we think are justifiable. Vietnam’s echo of China is obvious – but still we see no

signs of overheating in inflation or C/A figures. The steady positive growth stories that

look sustainable are in South Asia (Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan too).

2 In Reform Awakens in May 2015, we wrote that we expected Turkey to face a growth and/or banking crisis in 2016-2018, so far this has been staved off by government support for bank lending.

13%

49%

71%

33%

26%

20%16%

68%

83%

52%

36% 34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru

Opportunity in Argentina, deleveraging in Brazil

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Data labels for 2007 and 2017


14



Figure 13: Credit to other sectors as a % of GDP, 2006-2018; South Asia looks good, Kazakhstan/Romania are underleveraged, Vietnam is another China


In Africa (ex-SA and ex-Egypt, both in the EEMEA graph above) we identify three key

themes:

1) Richer countries, Mauritius, Morocco and Tunisia, with a good inflation record

have higher levels of debt and these, we think, are sustainable.

2) Ivory Coast and Senegal are showing a rise that is usually consistent with good

asset market performance (eg real estate, or potentially equities). We attribute

this mainly to the CFA currency regime which delivers low inflation and low

interest rates, plus government efforts to boost investment. We have doubts

about the scope for either country to sustain 6-10% GDP growth over the

medium-to-long term given insufficient adult literacy or electricity. But there is

room for high cyclical growth for a few years supported by rising private sector

debt. We think Morocco’s Attijariwafa Bank recognises that opportunity, with its

number two market share in Senegal (19% market share) and Ivory Coast (11%

loan market share). Note Senegal’s ratio will fall with the forthcoming GDP

upward revision3.

3) There is an interesting lack of credit growth in Anglophone Africa. Where the IMF

estimates 2017 C/A deficits are already above 5% of GDP (Kenya, Tanzania,

Uganda), this may be a good thing. But in time, with lower interest rates, there is

scope for a significant bank lending rise to support growth. We would highlight

the lack of private sector lending, and even deleveraging, and see that as

something of an offset to the macro risk stemming from rising public sector debt

ratios in Ghana, Zambia and others.

3 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Senegal – another big rebasing to GDP, 2 November 2017

102%

81%

64%

76%

39% 38% 34%

53%

33% 26%

83%

67%

97%

62%

38% 41%

85%

97%

83%

95%

110%

79%

50% 48%28%

23%

55%

139%

58%76%

45%

29%

45% 49%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Bah

rain

Jord

an

Kuw

ait

Leba

non

Om

an

Sau

di A

rabi

a

Ban

glad

esh

Kaz

akhs

tan

Pak

ista

n

Sri

Lank

a

Vie

tnam

Cro

atia

Est

onia

Lith

uani

a

Rom

ania

Ser

bia

Slo

veni

a

Frontier private sector debt (ex-Africa)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Debt labels for 2007 and 2017


15



Figure 14: Lending to ‘other sectors’ (mainly the private sector), as % of GDP


Below we show the latest credit growth data YoY and the figure six months before, to give

a sense of change over time.

Figure 15: Latest financial depository lending to other sectors, % ch YoY YoY credit growth 6 months before

YoY credit growth 6 months before

Argentina 51 Dec-17 39 Brazil -3 Jan-18 -7 Bangladesh 20 Feb-18 19 Chile 3 Dec-17 5 Croatia -2 Feb-18 -2 China 11 Jan-18 11 Estonia 3 Feb-18 6 Colombia 9 Nov-17 11 Jordan 10 Mar-17 9 Czechia 6 Jan-18 7 Kazakhstan -9 Feb-18 -11 Egypt 8 Jan-18 47 Kenya 2 Jan-18 4 Greece -6 Feb-18 -7 Kuwait 3 Dec-17 4 Hungary 4 Feb-18 3 Lithuania 2 Feb-18 4 India 4 Jun-17 6 Mauritius 12 Feb-18 14 Indonesia 7 Dec-17 8 Morocco 4 Feb-18 5 Korea 7 Jan-18 7 Nigeria 2 Dec-17 5 Malaysia 6 Oct-17 7 Oman 6 Aug-17 8 Mexico 10 Jan-18 5 Pakistan 19 Feb-18 19 Peru 6 Feb-18 1 Romania 6 Feb-18 6 Philippines 16 Dec-17 16 Serbia 2 Feb-18 2 Poland 4 Feb-18 4 Slovenia 3 Feb-18 4 Qatar 7 Feb-18 6 Sri Lanka 17 Sep-17 19 Russia 7 Jan-18 4 Tunisia 13 Jan-18 11 SA 5 Jan-18 6 Vietnam 18 Nov-17 20 Thailand 5 Jan-18 4

Turkey 20 Feb-18 23 UAE 0 Feb-18 -1

Georgia 15 Feb-18 23 Taiwan 3 Nov-17 6 Ukraine 5 Feb-18 -5

Saudi Arabia 1 Jan-18 -1 Ghana 19 Jan-18 13

Ivory Coast 15 Dec-17 18.7 Tanzania 3 May-17 9 Rwanda 14 Dec-17 14 Uganda 5 Jan-18 6 Senegal 17 Dec-17 9.6 Zambia 8 Feb-18 -17

Source: IMF

South Asia: Strong nominal growth of 17-20% for all except India at just 4%. Two of the

top-four credit growth stories in FM are Bangladesh and Sri Lanka – the other two are

Frontier favourites Argentina and Vietnam. Pakistan’s latest figure was the strongest real

growth in EM.

19%15%

28%

91%

81%

25%

14%

26%

14%

60%

12% 13%

22%27%

31%

111%

93%

18%22%

39%

14%

88%

13% 11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Ghana Ivory Coast Kenya Mauritius Morocco Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Tanzania Tunisia Uganda Zambia

Three themes in Africa - higher debt in richer countries, Moroccan style rises in Senegal/Ivory Coast and stagnation in Anglophone Africa

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Debt labels for 2007 and 2017

16



LatAm: Accelerating credit growth in Argentina, Mexico, Peru and a good picture for

Colombia. Brazil’s data are less negative than previously, but we can’t rule out a double-

dip as we saw in much of Emerging Europe over the past decade.

CIS: Russia looks solid, and the data for Georgia are strong. Ukraine has rebounded but

credit is still contracting in real terms. Kazakhstan has double-dipped with a deep 15%

real fall YoY in the latest figures, probably connected to the bank mergers in the system.

Figure 16: Real credit growth in the latest data % ch YoY

Source: IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

MENA: Credit growth is around 0-3% in the main economies. This might pick up in 2018

with the oil price rebound. Oman and Jordan were showing stronger figures, but we have

no data for them since August 2017. Egypt’s data were distorted until November 2017 by

the currency devaluation effect. We think better data should come in 2H18.

Africa: As noted above, this is a positive Francophone Africa story. Ghana is showing

signs of improvement, possibly helped by a more realistic Bank of Ghana approach to

NPLs. Tanzania is suffering from the Magafuli effect. Kenya is waiting for changes to the

interest rate cap which has brought lending growth to a halt. Nigeria’s credit growth was

also deeply negative in real terms, which reflects an economy still shrinking in per capita

terms and where government borrowing may be crowding out the private sector.

Figure 17: Real credit growth % ch YoY

Note: Oman and Jordan are pretty old data, Bahrain's are so old we could not include the country

Source: IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

Emerging Europe: Before (Turkey) and after (Greece) a credit bust is evident in this

region, but Greece contrasts with the better post-crash data of Czechia, Hungary and

Poland because: 1) its boom was even greater; and 2) the Tsipras government has

deterred lending.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Pak

ista

n

Phi

lippi

nes

Chi

na

Tur

key

Qat

ar

Kor

ea

Col

ombi

a

Rus

sia

Mex

ico

Per

u

Tha

iland

Cze

chia

Indo

nesi

a

Pol

and

Tai

wan

Indi

a

Mal

aysi

a

Hun

gary

Chi

le SA

UA

E

Bra

zil

Gre

ece

Egy

pt

Sau

di A

rabi

a

Latest real credit growth, % ch YoY (MSCI EM and Saudi Arabia)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Arg

entin

a

Vie

tnam

Ban

glad

esh

Sri

Lank

a

Tun

isia

Jord

an*

Mau

ritiu

s

Om

an *

Kuw

ait

Mor

occo

Slo

veni

a

Rom

ania

Ser

bia

Est

onia

Lith

uani

a

Cro

atia

Ken

ya

Nig

eria

Kaz

akhs

tan

Sen

egal

Rw

anda

Ivor

y C

oast

Gha

na

Uga

nda

Zam

bia

Tan

zani

a

Geo

rgia

Ukr

aine

Latest real credit growth % ch YoY (MSCI Frontier and Africa)

17



Emerging markets

Within EM, the latest sanctions on Russia and the early election in Turkey have disrupted

two of the key currencies we follow, while Pakistan has allowed two devaluations since

our last big macro update in October. But even with that, EM FX as a GDP-weighted bloc

(ex-China of course), has only dipped a little, and it remains on an appreciation trajectory.

Including China, EM has only wobbled twice in the past 14 years of appreciation, which is

a good peg to re-emphasise our point about our REER model. When a country is

structurally changing as significantly as China’s is, then its currency history is much less

relevant than a currency history is when a country does not change. If Turkey has not

closed the gap with Europe in 20 years and produces roughly the same relative quality of

white goods as a generation ago, then its currency should arguably be at a similar level to

a generation ago. But if you are Korea and your product mix has reached a quality level

that can now compete with Apple, then you can easily manage a currency that looks

strong in REER terms.

Figure 18: MSCI EM and Frontier as GDP-weighted currencies, REER history (Jan-2007 = 100)

Source: Renaissance Capital, Bruegel, Bloomberg

MSCI Frontier has also appreciated over a decade, but we do not attribute this to

structural economic changes (though they are happening in Vietnam). We attribute real

appreciation to fixed exchange rate regimes (Gulf, EU member states), currencies that

are often managed (Vietnam, Nigeria to some extent, south Asia), and capital controls.

So we do not think China’s 28% ‘overvaluation’ relative to its long-term history is a real

danger signal. We check that by looking at the C/A position, which the IMF (and

Bloomberg consensus) assumes will remain in surplus, and whether it is particularly rare

for the currency to be more than 20% overvalued (it is not rare). All these signals, and

decent export growth data, tell us we can ignore the REER warning. Indeed, we still think

the JPY in the 1980s is a better guide for the CNY in the long term, and this tell us we are

heading towards CNY4/$ over the long term.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Jan-

95

Jul-9

5

Jan-

96

Jul-9

6

Jan-

97

Jul-9

7

Jan-

98

Jul-9

8

Jan-

99

Jul-9

9

Jan-

00

Jul-0

0

Jan-

01

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

EM and Frontier Real Effective Exchange Rates and long-term averages, weighted by previous year's GDP

EM ex-China aggregate REER EM aggregate REER FM Aggregate REER

STRONGER

WEAKER

Currency outlook

18



Thailand, Korea and central Europe are similarly un-concerning to us.

India concerns us more, but not yet, as the C/A deficit is manageable at 2% of GDP in

2018.

The Gulf currencies in EM (UAE and Qatar) are just 9-10% overvalued, which we don’t think

is particularly significant especially given their C/A surpluses and history of re-aligning their

currencies with the REER via inflation or deflation, instead of devaluation or revaluation.

It gets more interesting when we reach Pakistan. The PKR was 23% overvalued in

October when Pakistan was expected to have the worst C/A in EM in 2018. After two

devaluations, it is just 8% overvalued. We assume another shift weaker to PKR120/$

this year which would bring the PKR close to fair value and give it a significant competitive

advantage over all south Asian peers.

Sanctions led the RUB weaker, and at RUB61/$, it remains 3% over the average REER

implied since 1995. Oil is at least 10% above the long-term rate for 1995-2018 (Brent

average was $55/bl in nominal terms for 1995-2018, $62/bl in constant 2016 prices for

1995-2016 only) so a stronger RUB than 5% is justified. The C/A surplus support this too,

as do fairly high real interest rates. The RUB looks cheap to us.

We have argued the ZAR should not trade stronger than ZAR11-12/$ – which is in line

with fair value of ZAR11.7/$ – until we see economic policy changes or stronger

commodity prices to justify this. We think one-year risks are for appreciation, owing to

momentum and positive nominal and real interest rates. In the long term, we think there is

depreciation risk, if the ANC alters economic policy to prioritise job creation,

manufacturing with a weak currency to support this. We have a neutral view on the ZAR

at present.

Figure 19: REER in EM – ranked by overvaluation to undervaluation in the 5th column

Current FX rate

vs $

FX rate implied by LT average

REER

FX rate if REER falls to previous lows

Date of REER

low

LT average divided by

current rate

IMF 2017E C/A

(% GDP)

IMF 2018E C/A

(% GDP)

Standard deviations away

from historic average

Yvonne's avg. REER estimate

RenCap 18YE

forecast

1-year local currency

yields

China 6.33 8.10 10.9 Apr-95 1.28 1.4 1.2 1.0 3.0

Czech Republic 21.0 25.9 39.3 Jan-95 1.23 1.1 0.3 1.0 0.6

India 66.7 80.0 106 Feb-96 1.20 -2.0 -2.3 1.0 6.4

Thailand 31.5 36.5 52.8 Jan-98 1.16 10.8 9.3 1.0 1.4

UAE 3.67 4.05 4.58 Nov-07 1.10 4.7 5.3 1.0 3.2

Philippines 51.8 57.1 78.9 Feb-04 1.10 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 4.4

Qatar 3.66 3.99 5.01 Dec-03 1.09 1.3 2.5 0.0 3.0

Korea 1,068 1,158 1,790 Jan-98 1.08 5.1 5.5 0.0 1.9

Pakistan 116 125 144 Sep-01 1.08 -4.1 -4.8 0.0 6.6

Hungary 258 277 372 Apr-95 1.07 3.6 2.5 0.0 0.0

Chile 608 645 797 Jun-03 1.06 -1.5 -1.8 0.0 2.7

Indonesia 13,898 14,599 37,894 Jun-98 1.05 -1.7 -1.9 0.0 5.4

Poland 3.48 3.61 4.38 Nov-97 1.04 0.0 -0.9 0.0 1.3

Russia 62.6 64.2 125 Jan-99 1.03 2.6 4.5 0.0 61.5 6.4

Greece 0.83 0.82 0.95 Sep-00 0.99 -0.8 -0.8 0.0 0.9

Taiwan 29.6 29.2 34.3 Nov-09 0.99 13.8 13.6 0.0 1.1

Peru 3.24 3.14 3.50 Jul-07 0.97 -1.3 -0.7 0.0 2.4

Malaysia 3.92 3.78 5.73 Dec-98 0.96 3.0 2.4 0.0 3.4

South Africa 12.4 11.7 17.5 Dec-01 0.94 -2.3 -2.9 0.0 11.3 7.6

Brazil 3.46 3.26 6.28 Oct-02 0.94 -0.5 -1.6 0.0 6.3

Turkey 4.04 3.48 5.16 Oct-01 0.86 -5.5 -5.4 0.0 14.1

Egypt 17.7 15.0 22.9 Dec-03 0.85 -6.5 -4.4 0.0 14 17.6 16.5

Mexico 18.6 15.1 24.6 Mar-95 0.81 -1.6 -1.9 -1.0 7.7

Colombia 2,806 1,789 3,016 Nov-17 0.64 -3.4 -2.6 -2.0 4.4 Note: Govt bonds/bills except: Qatar, Taiwan, UAE (Interbank rates)

Source: Bruegel, IMF, Renaissance Capital

19



Turkey is the tough one. We argued in December that 20 years of history showed

investors had never lost money over one year, buying the TRY when it was 12% cheap to

our REER fair value average4, especially when the interest rate carry was added to the

mix (but we added it was a coin-toss on a one- or three-month view). We assumed the

Central Bank of Turkey would significantly hike rates in December, or January. It did not.

Today, the TRY is 14% cheap to its long-term average, one-year yields at 14% are the

highest in EM (once Egypt’s tax on T-bills is taken into account) and many in the market

are negative on the credit. But there is good reason for this negativity. We ourselves

argued in 2015 that a crisis is probably just a matter of time, thanks to the excessive

credit growth of the past decade. Turkey is expected to have the worst EM C/A deficit in

2018 (according to IMF forecasts). Minimum wage hikes and the exchange rate in March

2018 suggest the minimum wage is the same in Turkey and Hungary, which does not

reflect the productivity differential between the two countries, in our view. The president

after being in power beyond the 15-year ideal maximum we identified in our 2013 report5

has little restraint on his attempts to interfere with economic policy. He has now hinted at

introducing interest rate caps to support bank lending (we should introduce him to Kenya).

Inflation targets have lost what little credibility they ever had. Despite all this, we would

own TRY bonds when the currency is 10% cheap to fair value, on the assumption

(not very strongly held), that the country will be run a little more responsibly after the July

elections. Yes, that is highly debatable.

We think Egypt is a much easier call. We expect the currency to remain broadly flat until

mid-2019 at which point we think fair value will have weakened to EGP17.5-18.0/$. We

would recommend that the authorities then allow the EGP to gently depreciate, in line with

productivity adjusted inflation differentials. This would keep the EGP at fair value and

support the industrialisation and job creation that we expect to take-off in the 2020s. We

would still buy EGP bonds today. We are not put off by a crowded trade when

fundamentals align so well behind that trade.

Lastly, the pro-LatAm theme strikes again, with the MXN and COP both looking like the

best-value EM currencies. Of the two, the MXN often stays undervalued (21% of the time, or

nearly five years out of the past 25), while the COP is only this cheap 13% of the time. The

outlook for the MXN, as with IMF 2019 growth forecasts, is subject to the 1 July elections.

Frontier markets

Our REER model is not as useful for FM as for EM. Currencies are not easily tradeable,

so under- or overvaluation can be sustained for much longer than in EM. Underlying data,

such as inflation, may be false (Argentina 2007-2015), or calculations can be rendered

invalid by changing the calculation method (eg Kenya data pre-2010). Capital controls are

more common (eg Vietnam) and multiple exchange rates can add to the fun and games

(eg Nigeria).

▪ Kenya, we tend to favour Yvonne Mhango’s 2004-2018 REER model because it

has less of the inflation distortion we have noted previously. If we do a third

(2009-2018) REER model, fair value is KES109.5/$. The key point in Kenya’s

favour is that there is no widespread parallel currency market. The KES is kept

strong by currency flows that are hard to identify. Wages data we have collected

support the view that the KES is too strong.

4 Click here for our 13 December 2017 email 5 See Directional economics: The problem of political longevity, 12 August 2013

https://researchadmin.rencap.com/eng/research/morningmonitors/showarticle.asp?article_id=126861


20



Figure 20: We do not think exchange rates are appropriate when Turkey's minimum wage is similar to Hungary's, or Kenya's is similar to Tunisia's

Note: Data on the left-hand side are consistent Eurostat data we converted to dollars in early 2018; data on the right are not consistent and should be treated cautiously

Source: Eurostat, various media

▪ Argentina looks significantly overvalued, but we have had to use an unofficial

inflation data series to come up with this fair value estimate. This makes us wary.

The C/A deficit supports the view the ARS is too strong. The high one-year rates

can still give investors a positive dollar return but we prefer Egypt.

▪ Vietnam is another China. The apparent REER overvaluation is contradicted by

the C/A surplus.

▪ Like India’s INR, we worry about the Bangladeshi currency. But not acutely

when the C/A deficit is just 2% of GDP in 2018.

▪ Kuwait’s currency is the most overvalued Gulf currency, but also the currency

with the most financial firepower behind it. We do not expect a devaluation.

▪ We are not going to try and explain Lebanon. We do not have a view on

Jordan or Mauritius, but significant C/A deficits suggest we should.

▪ Sri Lanka devalued its currency and was until recently the best-value South

Asian currency. We think 11% overvaluation is not a concern when the C/A

deficit is this small.

▪ Romania interest us. It should be the canary in the coalmine for Emerging

Europe, with shrinking demographics, low unemployment, booming wages,

negative real interest rates and a worsening C/A deficit. Against the EUR, it has

depreciated by 5% in a fairly straight line since September 2016 so is trending

towards RON4.8/EUR by mid-2019. If bank lending took off, we would turn more

negative on the currency. For now, we are merely cautiously negative.

▪ We like Nigeria at this FX rate. We think there is a good argument that 7%

overvaluation is too little, given where oil prices (see the Russia RUB section

above) and double-digit interest rates. However, we do not expect significant

nominal appreciation before the elections in February 2019. By then, inflation will

likely have driven fair value above NGN400/$. Our economist Yvonne Mhango

assumes NGN356/$ by end-2018 and NGN360/$ by end-2019. Nigeria has a

history of maintaining a currency that is too strong and too weak, but rarely ever

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Blue = Emerging MarketsGreen = Frontier Markets

21



fair value. This helps explain our view of stability through 2019, supported by our

assumption of a C/A surplus.

▪ We are very relaxed about Morocco, Senegal and Ivory Coast. We do not

believe the WAEMU countries will sacrifice the CFA by the end of 2019 to join a

currency union with Ghana6. We think Morocco has managed the gradual

widening of its currency bands very well.

▪ Both Kazakhstan and Tunisia look good value to us. The caveat for the KZT

is that its exchange rate is heavily influenced by the RUB. Appreciation of the

KZT is more likely if the RUB also appreciates. The caveat for Tunisia is that the

IMF thinks the currency is overvalued, while we think it is the cheapest in

Frontier, or Africa, and the cheapest it has ever been. The TND has only been

this cheap 3% of the time in the past 23 years. The IMF can rightly point to a

10% of GDP C/A deficit while we would point to recent trade trends suggesting

improvement is likely in 2018. It is far from a slam-dunk, but the TND has already

remained stable against the EUR since November 20177.

In beyond Frontier MENA and CIS countries, Saudi Arabia looks similar in FX terms to the

UAE or Qatar. Belarus has the second-cheapest currency of any we follow (after Colombia)

which is credit supportive. Azerbaijan looks decent value compared with most other oil

currencies (the KZT is better). Georgia is modestly overvalued relative to the fair value

estimates of both our REER model and our Russian & CIS economist Oleg Kouzmin, but it

often is, and it has a big C/A deficit (it usually does). Armenia has the most expensive CIS

currency we follow but less than India or Bangladesh, and it has a similarly modest C/A

deficit. The currency is unaffected by political unrest at the time of writing.

6 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: ECOWAS single currency in 2020? Not credible, 22 March 2018 7 Recent trade data mean we are more confident on the TND than we were when we published Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Tunisia: Outperforming in the 2020s, 25 January 2018



22



Figure 21: Frontier, Gulf and CIS currencies – REER data, ranked by fifth column of overvaluation to undervaluation

Current FX rate

vs $


REER


Date of REER

low


current rate

IMF 2017E C/A

(% GDP)

IMF 2018E C/A

(% GDP)




RenCap 18YE

forecast


yields

Kenya 100 158 298 Jul-95 1.57 -6.4 -6.2 1.0 124 107.5 11.1

Argentina* 20.5 29.8 65.4 Mar-02 1.45 -4.8 -5.1 1.0 22.5

Vietnam 22,760 28,838 36,655 Jan-04 1.27 4.1 3.0 1.0 2.5

Bangladesh 84.2 104 128 Dec-06 1.24 -1.2 -2.0 1.0 4.3

Kuwait 0.30 0.37 0.45 Jun-95 1.23 2.0 5.8 2.0 2.9

Estonia 0.83 1.00 1.64 Jan-95 1.21 3.2 2.0 1.0 na

Lithuania 0.83 0.99 1.92 Apr-95 1.20 1.0 -0.1 1.0 0.0

Lebanon 1,509 1,772 3,161 Dec-92 1.17 -25.0 -25.8 1.0 6.2

Jordan 0.71 0.82 1.01 Sep-95 1.16 -8.7 -8.5 1.0 7.2

Mauritius 34.0 37.9 44.0 Dec-06 1.11 -6.0 -7.4 1.0 3.7

Sri Lanka 158 175 220 Feb-04 1.11 -2.9 -2.7 0.0 9.6

Oman 0.38 0.42 0.49 Nov-07 1.10 -11.5 -6.2 1.0 3.0

Romania 3.85 4.19 8.84 Feb-97 1.09 -3.5 -3.7 0.0 2.4

Nigeria 360 385 867 Apr-95 1.07 2.5 0.5 0.0 313 356 12.4

Croatia 6.12 6.41 7.17 May-00 1.05 3.7 3.0 0.0 0.2

Ivory Coast 552 575 668 Aug-97 1.04 -1.2 -1.5 0.0 561 5.6

Bahrain 0.38 0.39 0.47 Jun-11 1.03 -3.9 -3.2 0.0 3.6

Slovenia 0.83 0.85 0.92 Aug-97 1.02 6.5 5.7 0.0 -0.5

Serbia 97.5 96.1 163 Feb-01 0.99 -4.6 -4.5 0.0 na

Morocco 9.28 9.08 9.68 Aug-12 0.98 -3.8 -3.6 0.0 2.3

Senegal 552 526 581 Nov-00 0.95 -9.4 -7.9 -1.0 561 5.5

Kazakhstan 327 280 364 Jan-16 0.85 -2.9 -1.4 -1.0 335 8.1

Tunisia 2.44 1.89 2.49 Nov-17 0.77 -10.1 -9.2 -1.0 6.0

*Argentina's inflation data was unreliable for 2007-15 – we have constructed an REER series using 'shadow' inflation data

Armenia 482 557 867 Mar-95 1.16 -2.6 -2.8 0.0 6.6

Saudi Arabia 3.75 4.15 5.05 Mar-08 1.11 2.7 5.4 1.0 2.2

Georgia 2.46 2.63 4.40 Apr-95 1.07 -9.3 -10.5 0.0 2.65 7.3

Azerbaijan 1.70 1.60 2.62 Jan-95 0.94 3.5 5.6 0.0 8.1

Iran 36,056 29,998 68,105 Jun-95 0.83 4.3 7.0 0.0 na

Ukraine 26.2 20.9 40.0 Feb-15 0.80 -3.7 -3.7 -1.0 16.4

Belarus 2.00 1.33 2.32 Oct-11 0.66 -1.8 -2.5 -1.0 3.8

Note: Govt bonds/bills except: Morocco, Kenya, Senegal, Tunisia, Mauritius, Ivory Coast, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Saudi Arabia (auction yields); Oman, Bahrain, Jordan (interbank rates); Argentina (deposit rate); Kazakhstan (12M NDF implied yield.

Source: Bruegel, IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

Africa

Most of the caveats for Frontier currencies apply to our Africa REER table too. Having

said that, we can say a few things on currencies we have not already addressed:

▪ Angola looks too expensive even after the modest devaluation earlier this year.

Some premium to the AOA fair value estimate (our GEM/Frontier REER model

suggest fair value is AOA347/$, our SSA model suggests AOA267/$) is justified

by oil. Around AOA300/$ looks reasonable based on the London model, and

perhaps AOA240/$ on Yvonne’s model.

▪ Zambia is a tough call, with again our two models giving quite different numbers

(primarily because copper was cheaper over 1995-2018 than 2004-2018). With

the addition of our FICC strategist Greg Smith to the team, we should be able to

provide you with at least three opinions on Zambia in the future.

▪ Ethiopia is still overvalued but much less so since the devaluation in October.

The authorities recently announced that currency shortages will remain for the

next 15 years.

▪ Tanzania looks fair value to cheap, Rwanda is cheap, and Uganda is very

cheap and both our REER models broadly agree on all three.

▪ Ghana still looks good value, as it did through 2017. The currency is 14% cheap

on our GEM/Frontier REER model, and slightly more so on Yvonne’s model. The

23



C/A is much improved, growth is good, and the country is ripe for

industrialisation. Providing pre-2020 fiscal policy is kept on track, this may

continue to be an interesting trade for investors.

Figure 22: African currencies – REER where Jan 2007 = 100, ranked by the fifth column of over and undervaluation

Current FX rate

vs $


REER


Date of REER

low


current rate

IMF 2017E C/A

(% GDP)

IMF 2018E C/A

(% GDP)




RenCap 18YE

forecast


yields

C.A. Republic 558 1,075 1,482 Dec-99 1.93 -10.2 -9.3 2.0 na

Kenya 100 158 298 Jul-95 1.57 -6.4 -6.2 1.0 124 107.5 11.1

Angola 225 347 1,218 Oct-99 1.54 -4.5 -2.2 1.0 267 23.9

Zambia 9.80 11.8 21.3 Jul-95 1.20 -3.3 -2.6 0.0 9.2 1.05 17.6

Congo (Rep) 558 668 874 Feb-95 1.20 -12.7 3.0 1.0 na

Eq. Guinea 558 659 1,004 Oct-00 1.18 -0.5 -0.9 0.0 7.9

Ethiopia 27.5 31.5 43.3 Jan-04 1.15 -8.1 -6.5 0.0 29 na

Botswana 9.80 11.2 13.2 Sep-98 1.14 10.8 8.3 2.0 na

Mauritius 34.0 37.9 44.0 Dec-06 1.11 -6.0 -7.4 1.0 3.7

Cameroon 558 603 694 Oct-00 1.08 -2.5 -2.5 1.0 3.8

Gabon 558 598 664 Sep-00 1.07 -4.8 -1.5 1.0 na

Nigeria 360 385 867 Apr-95 1.07 2.5 0.5 0.0 313 356 12.4

Ivory Coast 552 575 668 Aug-97 1.04 -1.2 -1.5 0.0 561 5.6

Namibia 12.4 12.8 17.2 Dec-01 1.03 -1.4 -3.6 0.0 8.3

Tanzania 2,284 2,259 2,772 Dec-93 0.99 -3.8 -5.4 0.0 2191 2367 4.4

Chad 558 552 692 May-00 0.99 -5.2 -4.3 0.0 6.0

Morocco 9.28 9.08 9.68 Aug-12 0.98 -3.8 -3.6 0.0 2.3

Senegal 552 526 581 Nov-00 0.95 -9.4 -7.9 -1.0 561 5.5

Algeria 115 109 127 Mar-08 0.95 -12.3 -9.3 0.0 na

South Africa 12.4 11.7 17.5 Dec-01 0.94 -2.3 -2.9 0.0 11.3 7.6

Mozambique 59.7 54.6 80.9 Sep-16 0.91 -16.1 -16.9 0.0 43 15.9

Rwanda 855 767 1,009 Feb-04 0.90 -6.8 -8.4 0.0 801 884 na

Uganda 3,715 3,199 4,162 Aug-11 0.86 -4.5 -6.9 0.0 3239 9.0

Ghana 4.49 3.87 7.17 Aug-14 0.86 -4.5 -4.1 0.0 3.6 4.84 15.0

Egypt 17.7 15.0 22.9 Dec-03 0.85 -6.5 -4.4 0.0 14 17.6 16.5

Tunisia 2.44 1.89 2.49 Nov-17 0.77 -10.1 -9.2 -1.0 6.0

Note: Auction yields except: Egypt, Nigeria, Uganda, South Africa) Source: Bruegel, IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

In terms of local currency debt trades, we favoured Ghana (from 2Q17), Nigeria (from

May 2017) and Egypt in 2017, and after visits to all three earlier this year, this economist

still likes them in 2018 too.

Russia has become more interesting since the RUB weakened.

Turkey already interested us in December (prematurely perhaps, but we still have eight

months for that trade to come good), and still interests us, despite all the good reasons to

be negative.

We would also be tempted to pick up some exposure to Kazakhstan, Tunisia and

potentially Uganda, but perhaps only worth it if you want to spend more time with that

special someone in the middle office.

24



As we write this conclusion, our oil team have upgraded its oil price forecast for 2018 (to a

still cautious $62.5/bl, with $55.0/bl for 2019) and Brent oil has hit $74.0/bl. Oil exporters

keep coming up well in most of the key macro indicators we look at.

The strongest growth acceleration that the IMF has in GEM / Frontier are in oil exporters

ranging from Colombia in EM to the defaulting Eurobond credit of Republic of Congo. The

UAE comes top in the EEMEA growth acceleration space, and Kuwait in Frontier. We

think Russia (2%) and Nigeria (3%) will both surprise on the upside relative to

conservative IMF 2018 GDP growth forecasts of 1.5% and 2.1% respectively. Egypt is

another growth winner in the IMF forecasts even though it is still an energy importer for

one more year.

We do not see these currencies in our time zone rallying significantly – neither Russia,

Nigeria, Egypt nor Ghana. FX reserves build-up remains the priority we think. The KZT

could justifiably do better though. We have become more constructive on the TND since

our January visit and even there, rising oil prices can have a benefit as Algerians and

Libyans pop across the border.

Bank lending is already on the rise in Russia, and helped by oil, may get back up off the

floor in the Gulf too. The biggest bank lending theme we draw your attention to is the 17-

20% nominal growth in South Asia (ex-India), as well as the better-known booms under

way in Argentina and Vietnam. Emerging Europe remains a disappointment, and bank

lending in Africa is only a Francophone story. Francophone West Africa also looks

attractive to us for the high GDP growth they are recording. We guess lending will pick up

in Nigeria (oil) and Kenya (a modified interest cap rule) later this year.

Central Europe, and Frontier Europe (Estonia to Romania), represents a conundrum to

us. Growth is slowing across the region – the IMF thinks. That’s a negative. Currencies

are a little too strong, even if fundamentals suggest real appreciation over time is justified.

Interest rates are very low even though wages are booming (because workforces are

shrinking). But this can be partly justified because credit growth remains pretty feeble

across the region, so neither C/A deterioration (sooner) nor inflation (later) are looking like

a problem. We do think credit rating upgrades that have been long overdue are now

coming through, and more will come. It is not that we are negative on the region per se,

but we do think overheating seems more likely here than in almost any country we cover.

The ‘almost any other country’ is obviously Turkey. It had one of the best growth rates in

EM in 2017 and is expected to have the biggest C/A deficit in 2018 and one of the highest

inflation rates too. Yet our 2015 forecast of a GDP and/or banking crash in 2016-2018 has

pretty well run out of time. In fact, we recommended one-year currency exposure (to

bond, not equity) investors in December 2017. The TRY has weakened off a little more

since December, and while we see many problems for the economy, we still think we’d

have a few TRY bonds in our debt portfolio. The underweight equity call of our strategist

Dan Salter has played out well.

Given Turkey’s problems and high wages, we are more confident that North Africa will

benefit from Central Europe running out of labour. We are increasingly convinced that the

combination of literacy and electricity will transform North Africa in the coming decade.

Overall, we think EM is not even half-way through the upswing cycle, so there is not much

to dislike right now. Our only disappointment with the world is that as a Frontier/EEMEA

investment bank, we find a lot of the most interesting stories are in LatAm. The cheapest

currencies are the COP and MXN, the fast-rising credit growth is there too, and the GDP

growth acceleration is, again, in LatAm. As a mere macro tourist in that space, we shall

rely on Google Translate to sign off with a Buscando Buena America Latino.

Macro conclusions

25



Why aren’t all African, South Asian and lower-per-capita GDP countries growing by 7-

8%+ annually, and when might they do so? Step by step, we are trying to answer this

question. We think the key requirements for rapid and high sustained growth are

education, electricity, transport infrastructure and at least a 25% investment/GDP ratio.

For countries with rising populations to grow at 7-8%, they need to achieve high per

capita real growth of 3-6%. This compares with the more normal 1-2% per capita GDP

growth that over 50 countries globally have achieved over the past 30-40 years. Or to

address this in specifics, how does a Nigeria become a Mauritius (a country written off as

doomed by Nobel Prize winning economists in the 1970s)?

Figure 23: How many countries have grown at what average per capita GDP rate over the last few decades (with country examples for each column)


We first looked at education when we published The Fastest Billion: The story behind

Africa’s economic revolution in 2012, but we addressed this even more comprehensively

in two key pieces in 20178. Our conclusion was that: 1) only when adult literacy was 70-

80% or more could a country industrialise; and 2) industrialisation has historically been

necessary for (non-oil exporting) countries to get rich. This enabled us to distinguish

between those countries that can grow rapidly now (Ghana, East, South and North Africa,

Sri Lanka, Vietnam) and those that may have to wait a decade (Nigeria, Pakistan,

Bangladesh) or a generation or more (much of West Africa).

In this piece, we address what we believe is another building block, electricity. We find

that electricity consumption per capita is vitally important. The data we show help us

distinguish between those countries that can now grow rapidly and sustainably (those with

high literacy), and those that will (those who also have sufficient electricity). It will not

come as a great surprise to you that Vietnam has better prospects than Ivory Coast, but

there are surprises in the data worthy of your attention. Nor should it be a great surprise

that electricity correlates well with per capita GDP.

8 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Literacy and industrialisation, in July 2017, and No take-off without education, 27 October 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-2 to -11% -1.0-1.9% -0.1-0.9% 0.2-0.9% 1.0-1.9% 2.0-2.9% 3.0-3.9% 4.1-4.9% 5.0-5.9% 6.0-6.9% 7%+

Real per capita GDP since 1980 (or 1990, 1991, or whenever first data point is) - clustered by number of countries, IMF data viaRenaissance Capital

ChinaGeorgia

KoreaVietnamLithuania

Taiwan,Cambodia

IndiaLao,

Estonia Sri Lanka ThailandMauritius

IrelandSing.Indon.

HKKazakh.Bangla.Turkey

EgyptMoroccoNigeriaTunisia

BrazilGreeceMexico

SA

Russia

Saudi VenezuelaZimbabwe

UAE

UkraineIvory Coast

Electricity




26



Figure 24: Electricity consumption is correlated with per capita GDP

Source: World Bank Enterprise surveys

In a future piece, we plan to address the third prong of transport infrastructure, looking at

ports, roads and rail. We suspect this will be strongly linked to the investment/GDP ratio,

which Daniel Salter emphasised was so important in his key work on the middle income

trap9. We already recognise that high investment above 25% of GDP can help propel

strong growth for many years in countries such as Ethiopia and Bangladesh, despite

weaknesses in education and electricity.

Why are we addressing electricity before transport infrastructure? Partly because the data

are easier to find, but electricity is more important. The World Bank enterprise surveys show

that among 128 countries, firms in 99 of them say that electricity issues are a bigger

constraint to doing business than transport infrastructure. Just 29 say transport

infrastructure is a bigger problem and they are all clustered in countries that do not appear

to have acute electricity supply issues. There is no country where more than half of firms

have electricity challenges that thinks transport is a bigger problem than electricity.

9 See The Focal Point: Are we caught in a (middle income) trap, 12 September 2016

Burundi

Malawi

Mozambique

Sierra Leone

Ethiopia

Rwanda

Chad

Tanzania

Kyrgyzstan

Zimbabwe

CambodiaBangladesh

Zambia

Ghana

Ivory Coast

Pakistan

Kenya

India

Rep Congo

Vietnam

Ukraine

Nigeria

MoroccoIndonesia

Egypt

Georgia

Sri Lanka

Iran Thailand

SA

Peru

China

Brazil

Russia

Mexico

Turkey

Maldives

PolandArgentina

Eq. Guinea

CzechiaGreece

Bahrain

Korea

Kuwait UAE

Iceland

Ireland

Qatar

Norway

Switz.

R² = 0.8031

10

20

40

80

160

320

640

1,280

2,560

5,120

10,240

20,480

40,960

250 500 1,000 2,000 4,000 8,000 16,000 32,000 64,000 128,000

Ele

ctri

city

co

nsu

mp

tio

n (K

Wh

per

per

son

), 2

015

GDP per Capita ($), 2015

Per capita GDP (current $ in 2015) vs election consumption (kWh per capita, 2015), logged scales; IMF, IEA and EIA data via Renaissance Capital

More electricity than youshould expect - often in post-communist countries,or aluminium producers

More GDP per capitathan you should expect


27



Figure 25: Electricity is a bigger constraint on business than transport infrastructure

Source: World Bank Enterprise surveys

Why are we addressing electricity after literacy? Because 200 years of literacy data show

that industrialisation is impossible without literacy. We found further confirmation of this in

the data we outline below. Some countries such as Zambia had relatively high electricity

output as long ago as 1980, but because literacy was sub-70%, no industrial take-off

could occur.

Education has to come first, as it did in Korea which was poorer than Ghana in 1960.

What we discovered this month is that Korean data seem to show that it achieved the

greatest rise of adult literacy ever in the 1950s. Most countries lift adult literacy by about 1

ppt a year, and this is now our base line when plotting the future for Nigeria, Bangladesh

and others. Josef Stalin’s USSR managed 2 ppts10. South Korea claims it achieved 7

ppts, lifting adult literacy from 22% in 1945 to 86% in 1954 (and 96% by 1958)11. Yet half

of Korean households had no access to electricity in 196912. Serious electrification of

Korea only happened in the 1970s, when it helped drive consumption in the economy.

While one household in 167 had a television in 1970, the ratio was 1 in 1.3 households by

1979. Education came first in Korea.

The implication is that electricity should be the top priority for countries that have already

reached 70% adult literacy rates.

10 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: The legacy of Russia’s 1917 revolution, 20 September 2017 11 See Development Process and Outcomes of Adult Literacy Education in Korea, Ministry of Education, Science and Technology. Note South Korea was competing with North Korea at this time, which claimed it abolished adult illiteracy in 1949. 12 See Rural Electrification Project for Expansion of Power Supply, 2012, Ministry of Knowledge Economy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Chi

na (

2012

)

Sw

azila

nd (

2016

)

Mon

tene

gro

(201

3)

Ser

bia

(201

3)

Arm

enia

(20

13)

Mal

aysi

a (2

015)

Hun

gary

(20

13)

Bel

arus

(20

13)

Nam

ibia

(20

14)

Est

onia

(20

13)

Per

u (2

010)

Egy

pt (

2016

)

Phi

lippi

nes

(201

5)

Sou

th A

fric

a (2

007)

Zim

babw

e (2

016)

Tim

or-L

este

(20

15)

Bol

ivia

(20

17)

Mal

awi (

2014

)

Fiji

(20

09)

Mad

agas

car

(201

3)

Uga

nda

(201

3)

Ecu

ador

(20

17)

Chi

le (

2010

)

All

Cou

ntrie

s

Eth

iopi

a (2

015)

Hon

dura

s (2

016)

Ang

ola

(201

0)

Col

ombi

a (2

010)

Arg

entin

a (2

010)

Bra

zil (

2009

)

Djib

outi

(201

3)

Sen

egal

(20

14)

Tog

o (2

016)

DR

C(2

013)

Pal

estin

e (2

013)

Uru

guay

(20

17)

Gab

on (

2009

)

Ben

in (

2016

)

Cos

ta R

ica

(201

0)

Mal

i (20

16)

Gui

nea-

Bis

sau

(200

6)

Cen

tral

Afr

.Rep

. (20

11)

In these 128 countries, an average of 31% firms see electricity as a major constraint to business, against 19% who cite transportation as a major constraint

Percent of firms identifying electricity as a major constraint Percent of firms identifying transportation as a major constraint


http://www.ksp.go.kr/common/attdown.jsp?fidx=126&pag=0000700003&pid=50




28



Best snippet on electricity – from prehistoric fires to LED lights13

In the prehistoric era, a person would have to gather, chop and burn wood for roughly 10

hours a day for six days (60 hours work) in order to produce the equivalent light of a

modern lightbulb shining for about one hour.

Around the time of the Babylonian empire, circa 1750 B.C., 60 hours of labour could buy

the equivalent of 88 minutes of today's light from oil-burning lanterns.

Around the year 1800, you could get about 10 hours of modern-equivalent lighting from

animal fat candles for 60 hours of labour

The Industrial Revolution brought with it a revolution in lighting. The first was gas-powered

street lighting, showing up in London around 1807. Sixty hours of labour would net you 16

hours of lighting.

Thomas Edison’s light bulb was far more efficient than lighting by earlier methods — 60

hours of work would translate to 72 hours of lighting, nearly a five-fold efficiency increase

over early gas lights.

By 1950, the technology (notably fluorescent tubes) had progressed to the point that 60

hours of labour would light a bulb for a whopping 28,723 hours, or nearly 1,200 days

By 1994, the compact fluorescent bulb’s introduction meant that 60 hours of labour could

light a bulb for over 51 years.

All we can add is that if LED lights require 10 times less power, and labour productivity

has risen by 10% since 1994, this figure may be more like 600 years now. If there is any

implication we can draw from this, it is that the electricity needed to industrialise might be

less than in the past, due to growing efficiency and better technologies.

Figure 26: We've come a long way baby – hours of light (equivalent to a 1994 lightbulb) provided by 60 hours of labour (log scale)

Source: Washington Post, Renaissance Capital (2018 estimate)

13 The italicised text is sourced from the Washington Post 26 June 2017

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

Fire (20,000 BC)

Oil lamp (1750 BC)

Tallow candle (1800)

Gas light (London, 1807)

Edison bulb (1883)

Fluorescent light (1950)

1994 bulb

LED bulb ? (2018)

Hours of light - provided by 60 hours of labour

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/06/26/the-amount-of-work-that-once-bought-an-hour-of-light-now-buys-51-years-of-it/?utm_term=.223f6a3a3a7d

29



Electricity – the key table and graph

Our basic premise in writing this piece is that you cannot industrialise (ie have a

manufacturing sector that is sustainably above 20% of GDP) without a decent amount of

electricity. We looked at 5,249 data points, where we had manufacturing as a percentage

of GDP, in 125 countries, over 1960-2015, and compared this with electricity consumption

per capita data from the IEA and EIA. We assumed there would be no cases of high

manufacturing in countries with very little electricity (eg less than 300 kWh per capita). We

also expected that manufacturing would peak in countries with ‘middle income’ levels of

electricity, and that rich countries with the most electricity would have left manufacturing

behind, but still be intensive users of electricity.

Figure 27: Number of incidents where manufacturing to GDP (lhs, vertical) from 0% to more than 25%, coincides with electricity consumption in kWh/per capita annually, from 0 to more than 20,000

50 100 250 500 1,000 2,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 >20,000

2.5 20 13 4 7 9 19 8 9 0 0 0 5.0 59 43 76 24 32 56 37 17 0 0 0 7.5 101 88 91 48 59 67 44 22 13 0 2 10.0 88 97 82 77 62 68 107 33 24 0 12 12.5 70 27 81 59 73 58 81 51 22 5 19 15.0 41 58 90 67 66 107 137 80 15 5 16 17.5 17 33 78 84 75 120 92 99 13 7 2 20.0 5 18 50 78 96 86 153 88 9 6 1 22.5 0 9 10 66 87 55 107 60 16 5 0 25.0 0 6 2 46 66 43 93 56 16 6 0 > 25 0 0 5 33 69 109 136 78 9 5 0

Source: IEA, EIA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital

What we actually found was that, since 1960, no country with electricity consumption less than

50 kWh/per capita has ever had a manufacturing sector of 22.5% of GDP or more. There are

few cases of manufacturing above 20% of GDP in countries with less than 300 kWh/per

capita14 and none of these were sustainable. Our other assumptions were confirmed.

To put this another way, and hopefully even more clearly, we show in the graph below

every data point for any country since 1960 with manufacturing above 20.0% of GDP

relative to its electricity output. Of the 1,193 data points, half are already achieved by

countries with less electricity consumption per capita than 2,000 kWh. The biggest

increase in data points is when countries are in the 500-1,000 kWh range (19% of all of

them), followed by 1,000-1,500 kWh (13%) and then 300-500 kWh (11%). Just 4% are

achieved by countries with less than 300 kWh.

14 Benin 1999-2006, Cambodia in 2004, China 1980-82, DRC between 2001-2009, India in 1979, Lesotho 2001-2008, Malawi 1992, Morocco 1981-1987, Myanmar in 2012 and 2015, Philippines in 1971-72, 1987 and 1992-, Sri Lanka in 1977, Thailand in 1977 and 1980-81 and Yemen in 1990-1991

30



Figure 28: The big industrialisation drive is driven by countries with electricity consumption of 300-2,000 kWh per capita – especially 500-1,000

Source: EIA, IEA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital

One thing the data did not show was a big slump in manufacturing among rich countries.

We assumed countries start as poor agricultural nations, become middle income

manufacturing nations, then slump back into a de-industrialised services heaven of video-

games, air-conditioning and microwaved oven chips (my retirement plans in hotter climes

are not well hidden). In fact, while manufacturing does soar, it does not slump back. That

must just be an Anglo-Saxon thing.

Figure 29: As countries get wealthier, their manufacturing sector expands, but does not slump as much at high income levels as we expected

Source: IEA, EIA, IMF, Renaissance Capital

Lastly, is manufacturing necessary anyway? We have asked this question before, and the

latest IMF response answer is, “not necessarily”. In its latest WEO, it suggests that

productivity growth can be just as high in some services as manufacturing (it highlights

everything from Russian banking in the 2000s to Korean postal services and

communications to wholesale trade in Czechia). What is crucial is that labour moves from

low value-added agriculture to higher value-added manufacturing or services. Whichever

route is taken, we think it cannot happen without literacy and without electricity, so if you

buy the IMF argument, replace ‘manufacturing’ with ‘high valued-added services’ in the

text below.

What is a kWh per capita per year?

Before we look at where the world ranks on electricity consumption, let’s just put electricity

consumption into perspective. What we are saying is that if your country does not provide

enough power to supply one LCD TV (241 kWh) for a year per person, it cannot

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

200 300 500 1000 1500 2000 3000 4000 5000 10000 10001+

Number of datapoints (lhs) where manufacturing is more 20% of GDP vs kWh per capita (horizontal axis)

Cases of a country having manufacturing of 20% of GDP Extra cases

Manufacturing takes off when electricity consumption rises above 500 kwh

9

180444

743

724

488 292

356 664

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

$200

-$50

0

$500

-$1,

000

$1,0

00-

$2,0

00

$2,0

00-

$5,0

00

$5,0

00-

$10,

000

$10,

000-

$15,

000

$15,

000-

$20,

000

$20,

000-

$30,

000

$30,

000+

Manufacturing to GDP by income level (2011 constant PPP $) - label shows number of datapoints

Data points are includemainly to emphasise how we should discount the first column

http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/03/20/~/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2018/April/c3.ashx?la=en

31



industrialise. But enough power to supply a TV and a computer (over 300 kWh together) is

perhaps sufficient, and by the time a washing machine and a light bulb are thrown in

(around 500 kWh in total), then ‘made in X’ becomes a realistic and sustainable story.

Figure 30: Electricity consumption per item Use Consumption per year, kWh

LCD TV 335 days, 4 hours per day 241 LED TV 335 days, 4 hours per day 54 Computer with flat screen 240 days – 4 hours per day 72 Game console 387 hours per year 8 to 70 Low energy lightbulb 335 days, 5 hours per day 20 Washing machine A+++ 48 weeks, 4 x per week 173 Microwave oven 48 weeks – 1.5 hours p/w 90 Fridge / Freezer A+ 365 days continuously 201 Dishwasher 48 weeks – 5x per week 288 Electric oven 48 weeks – 1.5x per week 162 Mobile phone charger 365 days – 1 hour 1.9

Source: https://www.energuide.be/en/questions-answers/how-much-energy-do-my-household-appliances-use/71/

PS – we should all get LED TVs for the good of the environment.

Where is the world today in terms of kWh electricity consumption?

Cold northern countries and energy-rich Gulf states dominate the top ranks of electricity

consumption globally, but these are really not our focus. Nor are we particularly bothered

by electricity data for most EMs – it is generally other issues that stop them escaping the

middle income trap15.

The data among high-energy consumers help explain why investors were keen to

embrace Argentina after political changes made it more investor friendly in 2015. Its

electricity output is nearly identical to rich Uruguay. They also show why Iran is potentially

so interesting; its output is similar to neighbouring Turkey. Both could be successful EMs.

15 See The Focal Point: Are we caught in a (middle income) trap, 12 September 2016


32



Figure 31: Electricity consumption per capita, since 1960, kWh 1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Iceland 2,574 2,933 6,383 6,909 9,487 12,545 14,300 15,360 16,484 25,110 26,832 49,871 53,722 Norway 7,591 11,283 13,291 13,907 16,144 18,383 22,139 22,957 23,991 24,605 24,558 24,484 22,823 Bahrain

1,952 2,626 4,613 15,552 15,198 20,350 19,678 20,698 17,889 20,257

Qatar

2,638 3,801 9,711 10,062 9,588 9,709 12,977 14,020 13,833 14,659 Canada 5,523 6,740 8,718 9,034 10,257 12,504 14,306 15,584 15,913 16,365 16,266 15,043 14,627 Finland 1,810 2,847 4,396 4,733 5,726 7,870 9,993 11,927 12,908 14,773 15,592 15,809 14,537 Sweden 3,919 5,441 7,120 7,490 8,810 10,360 14,372 15,280 14,358 14,781 14,754 14,396 13,042 Kuwait

2,627 3,657 5,278 6,858 6,797 10,962 11,658 14,468 14,423 12,775

US

9,217 9,768 11,365 11,882 12,732 12,896 12,564 12,214 UAE

5,234 7,631 7,805 8,661 11,473 11,508 10,262 12,082

Luxembourg 4,306 5,554 7,203 7,596 8,667 9,823 10,343 10,808 12,224 13,268 13,215 12,995 10,927 Korea

280 471 859 1,243 2,202 3,621 5,597 7,411 9,256 9,918

Saudi Arabia

316 520 1,913 2,977 3,897 4,785 5,498 6,412 7,766 9,668 Australia 1,708 2,469 3,359 3,499 4,582 5,588 6,466 7,872 8,362 9,390 9,741 10,030 9,460 New Zealand 2,395 3,428 4,171 4,594 5,716 6,267 7,427 8,730 8,886 9,079 9,322 9,266 8,710 Singapore 1,076 1,623 2,544 3,227 4,658 5,742 7,233 8,320 8,323 8,584 Brunei Dar. 1,584 1,336 1,531 2,953 3,911 5,915 7,367 8,243 8,401 8,409 Japan 1,074 1,712 3,065 3,272 3,826 4,455 4,963 6,502 7,313 7,912 8,089 8,178 7,556 Belgium 1,463 2,022 2,870 3,041 3,634 4,553 5,044 5,930 6,889 7,723 7,994 7,890 7,444 Austria 1,648 2,150 2,814 2,968 3,542 4,459 4,993 5,676 5,995 6,560 7,223 7,480 7,322 Trinidad 894 960 1,582 2,234 2,539 2,960 3,788 4,943 5,957 7,135 Switzerland 2,984 3,455 4,059 4,304 4,560 5,578 6,386 6,936 6,801 7,289 7,708 7,639 7,032 Oman

13 144 585 1,376 2,051 2,433 3,013 3,790 5,304 6,884

France 1,393 1,883 2,502 2,612 3,104 4,186 4,926 5,521 6,187 6,725 7,136 7,249 6,570 Israel

2,120 2,438 2,826 3,242 3,902 4,845 5,990 5,981 6,314 6,519

Germany 1,463 2,018 3,515 3,715 4,385 5,355 5,927 6,055 5,786 6,099 6,540 6,692 6,465 Netherlands 1,277 1,804 2,796 2,983 3,602 4,164 4,352 5,016 5,499 6,279 6,647 6,739 6,409 Slovenia

4,701 4,767 5,361 6,434 5,888 6,249

Russia

6,187 4,697 4,726 5,295 5,911 6,043 Hong Kong 2,001 2,708 3,874 4,306 5,165 5,539 5,646 5,714 Estonia

4,651 3,489 3,880 4,726 5,581 5,656

Denmark 1,011 1,710 2,658 2,841 3,190 4,288 4,993 5,614 6,030 6,178 6,317 5,961 5,582 Czech Republic

3,158 3,710 4,187 4,725 5,133 5,050 5,099 5,647 5,545 5,563

Ireland 660 1,069 1,653 1,773 1,959 2,545 2,789 3,406 4,137 5,338 5,831 5,597 5,490 Puerto Rico 3,858 3,191 3,746 4,395 5,324 6,075 5,220 5,442 Spain 480 786 1,333 1,426 1,928 2,454 2,744 3,323 3,664 4,800 5,692 5,384 5,137 Italy 948 1,392 1,963 2,033 2,320 2,900 3,137 3,857 4,283 4,905 5,345 5,228 4,893 Greece 227 447 976 1,140 1,549 2,106 2,465 2,909 3,375 4,163 4,831 4,970 4,847 Slovakia

4,543 4,613 4,533 4,812 4,770

UK

4,322 4,420 4,968 5,122 5,698 5,812 5,270 4,759 Portugal 315 473 737 811 1,037 1,495 1,793 2,399 2,921 3,784 4,477 4,787 4,523 Montenegro 6,129 5,184 4,515 Malaysia

297 407 630 804 1,106 1,915 2,629 2,748 3,943 4,384

Kazakhstan

5,905 3,468 2,589 4,012 3,822 4,337 Bulgaria

2,038 2,695 3,564 4,171 4,229 3,683 3,120 3,561 3,833 4,130

Serbia

4,264 3,379 3,702 3,542 3,886 4,011 Hungary

1,026 1,452 1,568 1,974 2,514 2,984 3,182 2,800 3,022 3,520 3,601 3,873

Chile

752 727 892 971 1,194 1,712 2,433 3,029 3,197 3,846 China

266 334 484 728 933 1,685 2,776 3,844

South Africa

2,043 2,510 3,232 3,631 3,824 3,791 4,237 4,286 4,194 3,821 Croatia

2,875 2,206 2,759 3,338 3,673 3,743

Poland 809 1,120 1,619 1,740 2,313 2,713 2,826 2,865 2,690 2,844 3,030 3,402 3,657 FYR Macedonia 2,573 2,727 3,208 3,423 3,631 Suriname

3,986 3,004 3,460 3,322 2,206 2,716 2,942 3,576

Cyprus

939 974 1,347 1,722 2,369 2,615 3,198 3,860 4,386 3,529 Lithuania

3,442 1,955 1,989 2,668 3,010 3,499

Seychelles 691 884 1,271 1,494 2,040 2,436 2,932 3,454 Belarus

4,075 2,571 2,785 3,009 3,325 3,339

Bhutan

49 67 89 243 505 906 2,733 3,302 Latvia

3,124 1,797 1,894 2,559 2,963 3,267

Bosnia Herz. 2,277 938 1,556 2,012 2,882 3,143 Uruguay

701 726 967 1,048 1,229 1,550 1,998 1,952 2,740 3,073

Argentina

813 944 1,169 1,214 1,231 1,583 1,987 2,303 2,735 2,986 Ukraine

4,427 3,064 2,524 2,927 3,231 2,885

Lebanon

490 603 909 1,224 496 1,562 2,994 2,811 3,479 2,861 Iran

509 667 886 1,052 1,427 1,920 2,450 2,781

Turkey 87 137 210 232 344 464 605 868 1,152 1,554 1,918 2,379 2,776 Source: IEA, EIA, Renaissance Capital

33



Figure 31: Electricity consumption per capita, since 1960, kWh, continued

1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Georgia

2,816 1,396 1,423 1,767 1,957 2,669 Turkmenistan 2,283 1,407 1,526 1,848 2,135 2,648 Thailand

115 176 277 385 678 1,198 1,397 1,853 2,222 2,546

Brazil

452 643 1,003 1,267 1,445 1,617 1,876 1,987 2,334 2,498 Venezuela

996 1,174 1,941 2,216 2,381 2,583 2,601 2,800 3,093 2,410

Romania

1,516 2,008 2,604 2,841 2,595 2,048 1,840 2,182 2,278 2,367 Mauritius

147 212 299 314 671 945 1,363 1,684 1,995 2,233

Panama

496 596 744 876 822 1,047 1,254 1,436 1,717 2,160 Azerbaijan

2,435 1,808 1,914 2,269 1,496 2,143

Albania

504 700 1,083 742 542 654 1,440 1,716 1,942 2,088 Mexico

483 616 824 1,004 1,097 1,308 1,647 1,814 1,868 2,036

Costa Rica 605 730 932 1,010 1,077 1,290 1,501 1,713 1,879 1,960 Armenia

2,550 948 1,170 1,396 1,629 1,842

Jordan

131 214 366 746 872 1,044 1,199 1,492 1,790 1,835 Kyrgyzstan 2,263 2,031 1,650 1,333 1,328 1,790 Mongolia

982 1,238 1,245 831 797 1,006 1,245 1,790

Egypt

192 226 352 461 631 699 920 1,199 1,471 1,644 Paraguay

79 115 240 291 470 752 841 818 1,106 1,593

Botswana 412 597 718 876 1,032 1,361 1,543 1,580 Libya

153 461 949 789 1,315 1,507 1,892 3,287 3,209 1,569

Namibia

414 938 994 1,451 1,547 1,562 Tajikistan

3,359 2,405 2,146 2,115 1,853 1,532

Dominican Rep 302 389 425 450 361 468 1,303 1,229 1,281 1,476 Vietnam

61 72 95 155 284 552 985 1,465

Tunisia

147 203 380 479 599 722 925 1,019 1,320 1,409 Ecuador

145 196 360 398 471 540 625 780 1,126 1,393

Peru

393 440 501 545 540 535 668 823 1,075 1,348 Moldova

1,658 1,545 1,949 1,626 1,298

Algeria

126 184 309 436 485 515 610 815 943 1,279 Dominica

136 303 380 573 988 1,040 1,230 1,195

Colombia

392 418 584 686 800 873 811 873 1,052 1,188 Iraq

259 365 792 1,279 1,305 1,416 1,237 834 1,144 1,180

Belize

310 361 704 818 768 1,378 1,164 1,149 Swaziland 421 481 853 1,040 982 1,116 1,144 1,123 Guyana

497 197 332 585 885 489 754 1,041

Jamaica

799 661 628 543 863 2,043 2,271 2,389 1,209 1,030 Gabon

186 383 705 1,010 901 741 840 862 906 981

Fiji

425 504 610 663 640 798 903 930 El Salvador 164 201 267 286 343 495 599 724 816 928 Honduras

127 156 209 280 363 348 490 573 626 872

Morocco

119 150 221 270 335 404 463 595 753 868 Maldives

23 64 98 197 319 504 608 796

India

91 106 130 175 247 328 357 428 591 789 Indonesia

14 21 44 77 156 253 374 476 610 786

Syria

331 722 423 685 983 1,401 1,727 745 Zambia

1,012 1,116 990 906 738 687 574 664 562 711

Bolivia

165 189 253 242 262 349 416 474 592 700 Philippines

225 300 359 333 342 381 469 523 590 667

Laos

53 64 69 69 101 179 391 636 Guatemala 117 158 244 167 199 294 328 479 516 565 Sri Lanka

57 72 95 130 153 216 260 319 457 558

Nicaragua 212 256 248 277 276 273 319 366 462 557 Mozambique

48 52 35 29 37 44 113 434 434 498

Zimbabwe

660 968 969 955 882 809 859 804 523 492 Pakistan

89 107 133 191 267 341 351 441 452 465

Papua New Guinea 335 361 368 289 351 489 443 425 Djibouti

285 337 265 255 233 285 389 406

Lesotho

- - 120 184 150 226 415 351 Equatorial Guinea 62 44 37 35 64 104 123 336 Cambodia

13 13 16 11 32 65 143 321

Ghana

310 373 421 161 323 351 330 244 278 316 S Tome and Principe 88 135 122 140 188 233 287 314 Bangladesh

10 16 17 30 44 71 95 160 225 305

Angola

75 119 53 53 48 45 70 101 201 302 Mauritania 54 54 61 64 79 148 163 287 Sudan

33 49 45 60 62 56 79 98 175 274

Myanmar

18 24 31 41 43 55 71 76 125 256 Source: IEA, EIA, Renaissance Capital

34



Figure 31: Electricity consumption per capita, since 1960, kWh, continued

1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Cameroon

152 174 156 224 200 162 178 190 244 253 Ivory Coast

173 164 151 173 160 158 203 245

Senegal

68 77 95 96 96 101 95 151 196 217 Rep of Congo

78 107 166 127 91 112 131 180

Kenya

76 88 103 111 124 127 105 129 149 164 Togo

64 74 63 77 91 100 94 108 122 163

Afghanistan 66 82 83 40 27 39 85 141 Nigeria

28 44 64 75 83 87 71 124 132 139

Nepal

6 6 11 19 32 40 55 76 101 136 Yemen

33 38 62 76 106 105 116 160 213 116

Gambia

57 61 67 61 83 123 126 113 Malawi

61 63 70 96 98 98 107 112

Benin

11 18 28 33 35 42 58 74 99 109 DR Congo

149 146 128 108 96 88 103 94

Tanzania

59 51 54 52 56 64 89 92 Ethiopia

18 16 17 19 19 21 21 30 44 82

Guinea

75 85 76 62 78 85 79 77 Uganda

24 25 35 42 53 61 65 73

Burkina Faso 13 14 18 21 25 43 57 73 Liberia

420 310 133 126 64 57 59 62

Madagascar 44 45 46 42 46 56 52 58 Rwanda

31 28 23 27 25 21 32 55

Niger

34 38 42 34 30 34 42 52 Central African Republic 27 27 29 28 26 36 33 36 Burundi

10 18 22 23 19 22 26 30

Sierra Leone 52 40 46 20 18 13 23 22 Guinea-Bissau 15 14 35 38 22 20 18 18 Chad

9 9 13 11 10 11 15 14

Eritrea

47 48 57 59

Note: We excluded a number of islands Source: IEA, EIA, Renaissance Capital

What interests us most are the countries with consumption that is below 2,000 kWh per

capita.

35



Countries that can’t industrialise yet – less than 300 kWh per capita

If we look at the countries that can’t industrialise, using the 300 kWh level cited above, the

key FMs are Ivory Coast, Senegal, Kenya and Nigeria. Bangladesh is barely over that

level. Of these, only Kenya has the literacy rate needed to industrialise, but it has to

double electricity output. The Kenyatta government had promised to quadruple electricity

output over the past five years16, but ended up scaling this back to 30% and instead

investing more in railways. Our data imply electricity would have been the better focus.

Figure 32: Kenya needs to double electricity to industrialise, kWh per capita

Source: EIA, IEA, World Bank, Renaissance Capital

The Korean model implies that electricity development should be financed by foreign

borrowing. Korea used this to help fund low interest rate loans to households who would

then pay for getting access to the electricity network. The government let households pay

for electrification.

Ivory Coast needs a 25% rise in electricity output, and Senegal a 50% rise, with which

manufacturing could perhaps reach Bangladeshi levels (of 18% of GDP). So today, 4-5%

GDP growth looks more plausible in the coming 5-15 years than the 6-10% rates they

have been recording.

Meanwhile, southern Nigeria might echo Bangladesh, but only if electricity consumption

is more than doubled. Sadly, that has been a goal Nigeria has been unable to reach

despite privatisation in 2013-201417. Hopefully, the new measures being introduced this

year will make a difference18 but it would be optimistic to assume Nigeria can double

output by 2020-2025. It therefore can sustain 4-5% growth but 7-8% sustainable growth is

probably a post-2025 step change, coinciding with adult literacy topping 70%. Do note our

emphasis on ‘sustainable’. Rising oil prices can of course lift growth to the high single-

digits for a few years, even without a big increase in electricity.

Nigeria has neither the electricity, nor the adult literacy rate, required to industrialise – but

localised success is possible in Lagos (which has the literacy and is expanding the electricity).

16 See page 6 of Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Investment-led growth is an ugly duckling, 20 October 2016 17 See Nigeria power sector reform: Progress at last, 17 January 2012 18 See Nigeria: Notes from Abuja – Things are looking up, 15 February 2018

0

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Calculated consumption Manufacturing value added, % of GVA




36



Figure 33: Nigeria has neither the electricity, nor the adult literacy rate, required to industrialise - but localised success is possible in Lagos (which has the literacy and is expanding the electricity), kWh per capita


Among other countries we pay attention to, Ethiopia hopes to quadruple power

generation by the early 2020s, which would push just it over the 300 kWh threshold if the

population was not rising. Its literacy level (49%) and electricity consumption are so low

that manufacturing is just 4% of GDP in 2016 (just eight countries globally have a smaller

manufacturing sector). Its best-case scenario is to echo Bangladesh or China (lagged by

40 or more years), sustaining high growth on the back of very high investment. Sudan at

59% has a similar literacy rate to Nigeria, so should not be able to industrialise for at least

a decade, and electricity output is also limited. Cameroon is in a better state thanks to a

claimed literacy rate of 75%.

For Tanzania19 and Uganda20, electricity output also has to quadruple. Similar to Ethiopia

they share the high investment to GDP ratio that has resulted in high growth elsewhere.

Despite their high literacy rates, industrialisation looks out of reach on a five-year horizon.

19 Tanzania plans to more than treble generation capacity from 1,500 MW to 5,000 MW 20 For more on Uganda, click here

0

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https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFL5N1RI3VA

http://www.era.or.ug/index.php/newsletters/doc_download/437-the-least-cost-generation-plan-2016-2025

37



Countries that could industrialise – 300-500 kWh / capita

There are relatively few countries in this range. Of those that portfolio investors look at,

we think only Cambodia and Ghana can industrialise. Both have adult literacy rates

above 70% and both have electricity consumption above 300 kWh (but only just).

Cambodia’s advantage is cheap labour and its proximity to the Thai manufacturing chain.

Ghana’s advantage is new leadership and its belief in a ‘one factory, one village’ model

that now has the preconditions in place to be a realistic goal.

Figure 34: Ghana has the adult literacy, and just enough electricity, to industrialise, kWh per capita


Neither Pakistan nor Bangladesh have the literacy rate required to take advantage of

their reasonable electricity supply. Bangladesh is growing faster (6-7%) than we’d expect,

presumably because of its high investment rate. Pakistan is now growing at the 4-5% rate

we think is consistent with its literacy rate. A better growth rate would require a substantial

rise of investment, perhaps via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. In

both countries, higher literacy areas (eg Southern Bangladesh or Punjab), can outperform

in terms of industrialisation.

Figure 35: Pakistan now has the electricity to industrialise, but not the necessary literacy rate, kWh per capita


Zimbabwe is a special case. It had both high literacy rates and good electricity supply

already in the 1980s, and it was an industrial economy at that time. But poor policy choices

0

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38



saw the country de-industrialise in the 1990s. It is now particularly well placed to thrive,

given the right economic policies. We await this summer’s elections with a lot of interest21.

Figure 36: Interestingly, Zimbabwe did industrialise – but policy mistakes de-industrialised the country, kWh per capita


Mozambique does not have the literacy needed to industrialise, and we suspect it will

not. It should be considered next to other energy exporters such as Gabon, Equatorial

Guinea, Angola, Algeria and the Gulf states.

As a case study of success, Mauritius is interesting. Electricity consumption was stuck

around 300 kWh per capita from 1979-1984, then jumped to over 400 kWh by 1988 and

over 700 kWh by 1991. Manufacturing which was 15% of value-added in 1979, topped

20% in 1985 and 25% by 1988.

Figure 37: A country like Ghana is now at a similar place to Mauritius in the 1980s, kWh per capita


Countries that are industrialising (or soon will) – 500-1,000 kWh per capita

India bulls should be pleased to note that this country can industrialise because its adult

literacy rate reached 72% in 2015. Coincidentally, electricity consumption surpassed the

500 kWh threshold this decade, and reached 789 kWh in 2015. The ‘Made in India’

campaign is perfectly timed. Indonesia is also well placed on both fronts. The Philippines

21 See Zimbabwe trip notes: Renewed optimism, 13 March 2018

0

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500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

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1983

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1987

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1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015



39



had the literacy to industrialise since the 1980s, but never had the electricity supply then. It

finally got electricity consumption above 500 kWh in 2005. We think India, Indonesia and the

Philippines should each be able to develop a stronger manufacturing base.

Figure 38: India finally has the literacy and electricity levels it needs for ‘Made in India’, kWh per capita


The two FM candidates to industrialise are Morocco and Sri Lanka. Both have literacy

above 70% and sufficient electricity. We are positive on this story for both22. GDP growth

could do much better than the 3-5% we see recorded in either.

Figure 39: We think Morocco can deliver a manufacturing renaissance, kWh per capita


Figure 40: Sri Lanka also meets the pre-conditions to industrialise, kWh per capita


22 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Morocco’s ‘first world’ problems, 29 February 2016, and No take-off without education, 27 October 2017

0

5

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http://research.rencap.com/eng/download.asp?id=%2021510


40



In SSA, Zambia has what is necessary to grow at a rapid rate. In fact, it had more

electricity per capita back in the 1980s, but insufficient literacy. Now it has both and a high

investment/GDP ratio. Its challenges might be wages kept high by copper and (via a

strong currency), high interest rates and its geography. Gabon is different because it is an

oil exporter.

Laos looks very interesting too, with more electricity than Cambodia, 80% literacy and

useful proximity to Thailand and Vietnam.

Countries that have industrialised – 1,000-1,500 kWh per capita

Four countries caught our attention in this range.

Colombia had a manufacturing sector above 20% of GDP throughout the 1970s and

1980s, but it has fallen to around 13-14% of GDP since 2010. It has the literacy and

electricity to do better and a cheap currency to boot.

Vietnam is unsurprisingly a winner23. Ex-communist countries tend to be good at

education and electricity, and Vietnam scores very highly on both. It might even be a

beneficiary of US/China trade problems, if Chinese exporters move across the border to

avoid US import tariffs.

Figure 41: China is roughly 40 years behind Japan, and Vietnam is roughly five years behind China

Source: IEA, EIA, Renaissance Capital

Tunisia is potentially similar to Vietnam, with high literacy and electricity consumption at

virtually the same level. This fits with our thesis that 2020s’ industrialisation could be a

theme lifting growth to an above-trend 3-4% in a base-case scenario and 5-6% in a more

positive scenario24.

23 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man, Post-communist reform and Vietnam, 1 December 2015 24 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Tunisia, outperforming in the 2020s, 25 January 2018

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Germany (1960+) China (2000+) Japan (1960+) Vietnam (2005+)



41



Figure 42: Tunisia could see manufacturing pick up again, on the back of good literacy and electricity data, kWh per capita


We don’t focus on it, but we think Jamaica’s high electricity output is interesting.

High electricity – 1500 kWh and above

In this group are countries that range from Mauritius, which has already gone through

industrialisation and come out the other side, to Egypt, which until 2010 did not have the

adult literacy required for industrialisation. Now it does, and we think industrialisation will

be Egypt’s theme in the 2020s25.

LatAm has decent electricity provision today, but back in 1971, Brazil at 452 kWh or

Mexico at 483 kWh, were where many Frontier countries are today. They crossed the

1,000 kWh threshold in the 1980s.

Price of electricity

We also show some graphs of electricity prices, taking the OECD average of USc10 for

industry and USc16 for households as a baseline. We assume low-to-middle income

countries should not be paying much more than this, as the key inputs should either be

similar (oil, gas, solar, etc) or less (wages for staff) than in DMs.

Figure 43: OECD countries have an average electricity price of USc10 per kWh for industry

Source: OECD

25 See Thoughts from a Renaissance Man: Egypt: 100 million and ready for take-off, 8 March 2018

0

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1012

9 9 10 912

107 8 8

117

14

68

3

8

128 7

5

1411

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75

16 17 1613

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1311

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57 6

1614

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5

0

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25

30

35

OE

CD

Chi

le

Cze

chia

Est

onia

Gre

ece

Hun

gary

Irel

and

Kor

ea

Mex

ico

Pol

and

Slo

veni

a

Tur

key

US

Ger

man

y

Bra

zil (

1998

)

Bul

garia

(20

10)

Chi

na (

96/9

7)

Tai

wan

(20

10)

Cro

atia

(20

10)

Indi

a (2

000-

05)

Indo

nesi

a (2

010)

Kaz

akhs

tan

(201

0)

Lith

uani

a (2

010)

Rom

ania

(20

10)

Rus

sia

(201

0)

Sin

gapo

re (

2010

)

SA

(20

06)

Tha

iland

(20

10)

Ven

ezue

la (

1999

)

Electricity prices per kWh, 2016 or specified dates, in US cents via OECD

Industry Household


42



Having a cheap electricity price does not mean a country will industrialise, as Middle

Eastern countries demonstrate. We include South Asian countries in the same chart.

Figure 44: MENA electricity prices for households in 2014 (note Egypt’s prices have since been raised significantly)

Source: World Bank via the Arab Union of Electricity (2014) for MENA countries, World Bank for south Asia but also Bangladesh and Sri Lanka power company data

There is plenty of debate about whether electricity prices should be subsidised in lower

income countries, to make it more affordable for industry and/or voters/consumers. What

we can see is that a subsidised price in Nigeria (USc6 per kWh) has under-priced

electricity and this could be one reason why supply is so poor. It is interesting to note that

cheap power in Zambia has not helped deliver industrialisation which we attribute to sub-

70% adult literacy before 2010. Ethiopia may be in a similar situation in the coming 5-10

years. Electricity prices in Kenya and Uganda are more expensive than Ghana, but might

be needed to boost future supply. Purchasing electricity from Ethiopia may be a sensible

economic response for Kenya and Uganda.

A useful World Bank paper shows that virtually every SSA country has a loss-making

electricity sector, which may explain why there is not much electricity26. It does suggest

that low prices are not the solution.

Figure 45: Electricity prices in Africa

Note: Egypt's figure is from an unreliable source

Source: World Bank except for Egypt

26 See our twitter link to the relevant graph

5

1

31

2 1

73

11

3 2 1

10

16

3

9 84

7

33

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Alg

eria

Bah

rain

Djib

outi

Egy

pt

Iraq

Jord

an

Leba

non

Mor

occo

Om

an

Qat

ar

Sau

di A

rabi

a

Tun

isia

Wes

t Ban

k

Yem

en

Indi

a (2

00-4

00)

Pak

ista

n (1

00-3

00

Ban

glad

esh

(101

-400

)

Sri

Lank

a (6

1-90

)

Sri

Lank

a (1

80+

)

Avg domestic tariff, US cents per kWh, assuming 250 kWh of consumption per month

26 2523 23 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 17

15 14 14 1412 12 11 11 11 11

9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Libe

ria

Cap

e V

erde

Sey

chel

les

Sie

rra

Leon

e

Tog

o

Rw

anda B

F

Ben

in

Sen

egal

Gab

on Mal

i

Mau

ritiu

s

Mau

ritan

ia

Gam

bia

Uga

nda

Ken

ya

ST

P

Nig

er

Tan

zani

a

Com

oros

Sw

azi

Ivor

y C

oast

CA

R

Cam

eroo

n

Gha

na

Mad

agas

car

Rep

Con

Mal

awi

Gui

nea

Bot

swan

a

Zim

babw

e

Moz

ambi

que

Bur

undi

Nig

eria SA

Egy

pt*

Leso

tho

Sud

an

Zam

bia

Eth

iopi

aElectricity price in 2014, in US cents per kWh

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29667

https://twitter.com/RencapMan/status/988357828388818944

43



Can high investment/GDP compensate for low electricity

Our base assumption is that countries cannot grow fast and sustainably without literacy

and electricity. But there are glaring exceptions. Ethiopia and Bangladesh are two

examples where high growth has been sustained for many years despite shortages on

both fronts.

Within EM, this is only really an issue for Pakistan (the rest of EM meet the education and

electricity criteria). The latest IMF estimates suggest it is not investing enough to

compensate for the shortfall in human capital. Even CPEC is not expected to lift the

investment level above 17% of GDP by 2023. India, by contrast, has the necessary

education and electricity data, but also has a very high investment ratio.

Figure 46: MSCI EM countries (ex-Qatar). Pakistan is not investing enough to grow at 6-9% sustainably

Source: IMF

In MSCI Frontier however, Bangladesh is investing so much that this might explain why it

can grow so fast despite having adult literacy at around 60%. Note this is roughly the

same literacy as Nigeria, which invests just 13% of GDP, and does not grow as fast.

Kenya might have high literacy, but it too needs to boost investment significantly. Ivory

Coast is worse on education, better on investment but not high enough. Only Senegal

crosses the 25% of GDP threshold which seems to make a big difference when countries

try to escape the middle-income trap (and we assume makes a big difference at lower

income levels too).

Figure 47: MSCI FM and beyond frontier Gulf and CIS countries – investment/GDP ratios

Source: IMF

15

22

44

2326

1512

22

3233

31

2523

16

2125

20

24

1920

23

31

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Bra

zil

Chi

le

Chi

na

Col

ombi

a

Cze

chia

Egy

pt

Gre

ece

Hun

gary

Indi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Kor

ea

Mal

aysi

a

Mex

ico

Pak

ista

n

Per

u

Phi

lippi

nes

Pol

and

Rus

sia

SA

Tai

wan

Tha

iland

Tur

key

UA

E

Investment to GDP ratio, 2017

19

25

31

19

25

20 21

27

17

24

1721

34

13

34

25 26

19 19

32

22

27

21 21

25

31

36

28

21 21

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Arg

entin

a

Bah

rain

Ban

glad

esh

Cro

atia

Est

onia

Jord

an

Ivor

y C

oast

Kaz

akhs

tan

Ken

ya

Kuw

ait

Lith

uani

a

Mau

ritiu

s

Mor

occo

Nig

eria

Om

an

Rom

ania

Sen

egal

Ser

bia

Slo

veni

a

Sri

Lank

a

Tun

isia

Vie

tnam

Arm

enia

Aze

rbai

jan

Bel

arus

Geo

rgia

Iran

Sau

di A

rabi

a

Taj

ikis

tan

Ukr

aine

Uzb

ekis

tan

2017

44



Within Africa, a number of other credits we follow have high investment/GDP ratios of

25% and above or are close to it. Only Senegal in the EM or FM spaces does. Other

equity markets that might be worth a look include Botswana and Namibia, Rwanda,

Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia, in our view. Within the debt market space, these figures

might justify more bullish growth forecasts in Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Republic

of Congo (despite their defaults), Rwanda, Uganda and Zambia.

We think what investors should be demanding is higher investment in Egypt, Ghana, Ivory

Coast, Kenya, Nigeria and Zimbabwe. Within this group, prospects look best to us in

Egypt, Ghana and Zimbabwe, given good literacy and (good enough) electricity data.

Kenya looks better placed than Ivory Coast due to better literacy. The medium term

seems toughest for Nigeria, which lacks literacy, electricity or investment, although the

south, and Lagos in particular, could outperform the country as a whole.

Figure 48: Within Africa, the beyond FM equity and debt markets often carry the advantage of high investment ratios, %

Source: IMF

49

26 28 28

18

7

38

26

13

21 21

36

1215

7 8

39

3228

14

22

9

2117

32

40

1614

19

37

21

34

44

23

37

13

24 2319

2631

19

8

32

13 12

2823 22

25

42

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Alg

eria

Ang

ola

Ben

inB

otsw

ana

Bur

kina

Fas

oB

urun

diC

abo

Ver

deC

amer

oon

CA

RC

had

Com

oros

Djib

outi

DR

Con

goE

gypt

Eq

Gui

nea

Erit

rea

Eth

iopi

aG

abon

Gam

bia

Gha

naG

uine

aG

uine

a-B

issa

uIv

ory

Coa

stK

enya

Leso

tho

Liby

aM

adag

asca

rM

alaw

iM

ali

Mau

ritan

iaM

aurit

ius

Mor

occo

Moz

ambi

que

Nam

ibia

Nig

erN

iger

iaR

ep o

f Con

goR

wan

da SA

Sen

egal

Sey

chel

les

Sie

rra

Leon

eS

outh

Sud

anS

TP

Sud

anS

waz

iland

Tan

zani

aT

ogo

Tun

isia

Uga

nda

Zam

bia

Zim

babw

e

Investment to GDP ratio in 2017EM in blueFM in greenOther debt or equity markets in yellow

45



Conclusion

We conclude in this section with a table bringing all of this altogether. We show electricity

per head, with 500 kWh per capita or more seen as good, and 300 kWh or less as bad.

We show adult literacy where over 80% means industrialisation can certainly happen, and

sub-70% meaning it cannot. Lastly, we show investment/GDP where 25% or above is

clearly good, and under 20% is bad.

Countries on the left have mostly got all the advantages they need to do well. Investors

will have to pick and choose among countries on the right, taking advantage of good

tailwinds to enter and exit investments.

Figure 49: Concluding table incorporating kWh per capita (2015), adult literacy (2015) and investment / GDP (2017) – green is good, red is bad

kWh per capita

Adult literacy

Investment/ GDP

Manufacturing, value added

% of GDP (2016)

Kwh per capita

Adult literacy

Investment/ GDP

Manufacturing, value added

% of GDP (2016)

Armenia 1,842 100 21 10 Mozambique 498 59 44 10 Jordan 1,835 98 20 18 Zimbabwe 492 87 20 10 Egypt 1,644 76 15 17 Pakistan 465 56 16 13 Namibia 1,562 91 23 12 Papua New Guinea 425 63 N/A 2*** Tajikistan 1,532 100 21 11* Cambodia 321 78 22 17 Vietnam 1,465 95 27 16 Ghana 316 77 14 6 Tunisia 1,409 81 22 17 Bangladesh 305 61 31 18 Moldova 1,298 99 22 14 Angola 302 71 26 N/A Colombia 1,188 95 23 13 Sudan 274 59 13 N/A Iraq 1,180 80 N/A 2 Cameroon 253 75 26 13** Jamaica 1,030 88 20 9 Ivory Coast 245 43 21 14 Gabon 981 83 32 3** Senegal 217 56 26 14*** Morocco 868 72 34 18 Rep of Congo 180 79 24 8 India 789 72 32 17 Kenya 164 78 17 10 Indonesia 786 95 33 21 Nigeria 139 60 13 9 Zambia 711 85 42 8 Tanzania 92 80 28 6 Philippines 667 97 25 20 Ethiopia 82 49 39 4 Laos 636 80 N/A 9 Uganda 73 74 25 9 Sri Lanka 558 93 32 17 Rwanda 55 71 23 6 *2013 **2015 ***2014

Source: EIA, IEA, UN, IMF

We found out in 2017 that education was a pre-condition for industrialisation or high

sustainable growth, but not a cause of it. There were enough examples around the world,

such as the Philippines or Zimbabwe, to show adult literacy does not always deliver

wealth. What we have found out in 2018 is that electricity is also a pre-condition for

industrialisation or high growth. Countries need to achieve about 300 kWh of electricity

consumption per capita before they can take-off. The exceptions seem to come from

countries that achieve investment/GDP ratios above 25%; that level appears to be

enough to outweigh shortfalls in education or electricity.

The education and electricity data support our thesis that North Africa should do very well

in the coming decade, after weaknesses in education held it back from growing fast

before 2000-2010. The investment/GDP ratio tells us that Morocco is better placed (for

now at least) than Tunisia or Egypt, a fact which may already be reflected in its wages

being double that of Tunisia and four times that of Egypt.

In South Asia, the big winners are India and Sri Lanka, which meet key education and

electricity criteria now, but also have very high investment. We are bullish on both. Neither

Bangladesh nor Pakistan meet the education criteria at the national level (regional stories

can be better), but Bangladesh (just) and Pakistan (comfortably) have sufficient electricity

to grow fast. But on investment, Bangladesh is far ahead of Pakistan, which we think

partly explains why it has produced better growth over the past decade. We would turn

46



more bullish on Pakistan relative to Bangladesh, if investment rises by much more than

the IMF expects.

Elsewhere in Asia, it might surprise nobody at all that we are bullish on the growth outlook

in Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, and have high hopes for Cambodia and

Laos. Each look good on the electricity metrics we have examined here.

Elsewhere in SSA (ex-SA), Zambia looks to us at least as well placed as India or Sri Lanka,

with good literacy, cheap, plentiful electricity and a very high investment rate. A little like

Zimbabwe in the 2000s, it would require very bad policy choices to make a mess of this

inheritance. Zimbabwe itself could be a big winner in the coming years, if the right policy

choices are made after the July 2018 elections, and the investment/GDP ratio is hiked.

Next in line is probably Ghana. It has good enough literacy and good enough electricity

(just) to do well. Investment is low and needs to be raised to maximise its chances of

success.

Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania do not look as strong based on these measures,

in our view. Education is good in each of them, and the breadth of adult literacy has risen

so much in the past decade that industrialisation is theoretically possible. But electricity

supply needs to at least double to allow industrialisation. Investment is highest in

Tanzania, supporting a good growth outcome despite this electricity shortfall, and is pretty

good in Uganda too, is nearly high enough in Rwanda, but remains too low in Kenya. We

think the Kenyan authorities might do well to revisit those earlier plans to quadruple

electricity output.

Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Nigeria have neither the education nor the electricity output

data that seem necessary to sustain strong 6-9% growth in the coming 5-10 years. Bank

lending in the Francophone countries can support growth for a few years, but risks

producing a C/A problem in the medium term. We think good investment figures in

Senegal make this the easier country of the three to favour. We do see room for the south

of Nigeria, and particularly Lagos, to outperform relative to the rest of the country.

Ethiopia is similar on the education and electricity metrics, but greatly outperforms on the

investment side, which may allow it to outperform the West Africans on growth.

Mozambique is apparently better than Ethiopia on all these metrics, and Angola beats this

group on literacy. Our problem with all three countries is the lack of transparency, from the

external debt burden to the exchange rate to their fiscal policy. Gabon is not surprisingly

(when per capita GDP is considered) better than all of this group on every measure.

We should add one final caveat. Manufacturing could still double as a share of GDP in a

number of Frontier and African countries in coming years, but not cross the 20% threshold

that we think requires 70-80% adult literacy and electricity consumption of 300 kWh. So

manufacturing might outperform GDP, even if it cannot grow sufficiently fast to push GDP

to a sustainable 7-8% annual growth rate.

47



Figure 50: Map of Africa by population size, 2016 (IMF) (each box is 1mn people) and electricity consumption in 2015 (kwh per capita via the IEA and EIA) for Africa and other frontier markets (top right)

Source: IMF, IEA, EIA, Renaissance Capital

Other Frontier

Argentina

Tunisia Libya Egypt Bangladesh

Morocco Algeria

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Niger

Vietnam

W.S Mauritania

Mali Chad Sudan Papua New Guinea

Senegal

S Eritrea

C.V Gambia Burkina Faso Z Kat J Y Djib.

B

G-B K Kan B G

Ghana A

Guinea N Kad P T

South Sudan

Cote D'Ivoire Nigeria B Somalia

Sierra Leone Kw FCT N C A R Ethipoia

Benin

Liberia Togo Ko En Eb

C

Oy Ek An

Os On I Ab

Og Ed B R Ak

L D Uganda

Kenya

Cameroon

1 box = 1 million people DRC

Rwanda

Eq.G

LEGEND STP Gab. Rep Congo Tanzania

Burundi Seychelles

1000+

500-1000

300-500

200-300 Malawi

200-

No data

Mozambique

Angola Zambia

Zimbabwe Madagascar

Bts. Mrt.

Nmb

Swz.

Lesotho

South Africa

51Figure 51: Credit ratings AGO Figure 52: Consensus forecasts Figure 55: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 1.8 2.0Moody's B3 Apr-18 (B2) = CPI (%) 28.0 14.8S&P B- Aug-17 (B) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -3.5 -2.2Fitch B Sep-16 (B+) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -3.9 -4.1Local currencyMoody's B3 Apr-18 (B2) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P B- Aug-17 (B) = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B Sep-16 (B+) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus

Figure 53: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.

Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 56: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$ANGOL 9 ½ 12/11/25 1,500 113.60 9.50 5.3 7.1 416.7 QJ6558358

Figure 57: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Figure 54: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 11 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 13

Geographic share Geographic shareChina 45% EU 27%Euro area 22% China 22%US 8% US 7%Japan 1% Japan 0%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 9% Korea 11% Figure 58: CPI vs policy rateSouth Africa 4% UK 4%Taiwan 4% South Africa 4%UK 3% Brazil 4%Indonesia 2% Malaysia 3%

Product ProductFuels 97% Machinery and transport 39%Food items 0% Other machinery/transport 34%Agricultural raw materials 0% Other manufactures 27%

Food items 20%Chemicals 7%

Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD

Angola

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1011121314

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Angola 2025 $ bond US generic 10y YtM

8010012014016018020022024060

80100120140160180200220240260280300

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AOA vs $ AOA vs EURAngola REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

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22

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Angola 3M yield index

51015202530354045

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Angola CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



48

Figure 59: Angola key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/B EODB Rank: 175 (182) - Weak Corruption Rank: 167 (164) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 23.2 13.8 2.4 3.5 3.9 5.2 6.8 4.7 3.0 -0.8 0.7 2.2 2.4Investment (% GDP) 25.7 30.8 42.8 28.2 26.4 26.7 26.1 27.5 34.5 26.9 26.5 24.9 26.5Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl tn) 4.6 6.3 6.0 7.6 9.8 10.9 12.1 12.5 12.3 15.6 20.6 29.2 34.5Nominal GDP ($bn) 60.4 84.2 75.5 82.5 104 114 125 127 103 95 124 119 121Population (mn) 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.8 26.6 27.4 28.2 29.0 29.9GDP per capita ($) 2,883 3,898 3,394 3,602 4,412 4,687 4,989 4,914 3,863 3,485 4,408 4,115 4,052Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.3 na naLending/GDP (%) 10.6 12.7 21.5 20.2 20.2 22.5 23.4 22.9 27.2 21.1 15.8 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 43.2 39.4 32.7 37.3 39.0 38.8 32.8 24.5 24.5 21.8 22.0 22.7 26.4PricesCPI (average % YoY) 12.2 12.5 13.7 14.5 13.5 10.3 8.8 7.3 10.3 32.4 31.7 27.9 17.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 11.8 13.2 14.0 15.3 11.4 9.0 7.7 7.5 14.3 41.9 26.3 24.6 15.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 4.7 -4.5 -7.4 3.4 8.7 4.6 -0.3 -6.6 -3.3 -4.8 -5.6 -1.7 -2.2Primary government balance 5.8 -2.5 -5.6 4.6 9.6 5.6 0.5 -5.4 -1.3 -1.8 -2.3 2.5 2.0Total public debt (% of GDP) 16.1 16.6 22.7 44.3 33.8 29.9 32.9 40.7 64.6 79.8 65.3 73.0 71.6External indicatorsExports ($bn) 33 34.6 64.3 39.8 52.2 66.3 70.7 67.3 59.1 32.7 23.8 30.3 na naImports ($bn) 7 17.3 26.9 23.9 18.2 20.8 29.0 26.8 28.8 16.8 11.1 12.1 na naTrade balance ($bn) 17.4 37.4 15.9 34.1 45.5 41.6 40.5 30.3 16.0 12.7 18.2 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 28.7 44.4 21.0 41.3 43.7 36.6 32.4 23.9 15.6 13.3 14.7 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 10.6 7.2 -7.6 7.5 13.1 13.9 8.3 -3.7 -10.3 -4.8 -5.5 -2.6 -0.1Current account balance (% of GDP) 17.5 8.5 -10.0 9.1 12.6 12.2 6.7 -3.0 -10.0 -5.1 -4.5 -2.2 -0.1Net FDI ($bn) -0.9 1.7 2.2 -3.2 -3.0 -6.9 -7.1 1.9 8.7 14.4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) -1.5 2.0 2.9 -3.9 -2.9 -6.1 -5.7 1.5 8.5 15.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 16.0 10.5 -7.1 5.2 9.7 6.1 1.0 -1.4 -1.6 10.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 6 86 -38 31 27 7 -5 -12 -45 -27 27 na naImports (% YoY, value) 161 56 -11 -24 15 40 -8 7 -42 -34 9 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 11.2 17.9 13.7 19.7 28.8 33.4 32.8 28.1 23.8 23.7 17.2 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.8 8.0 6.9 13.1 16.6 13.8 14.7 11.7 17.0 25.6 17.1 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 8 15 16 17 19 21 23 22 26 33 32 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 14 17 21 20 18 18 19 18 25 34 26 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 24 23 40 32 28 29 35 38 80 138 106 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 4 3 3 4 5 4 4 3 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 4 5 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 2 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 8 5 9 6 5 5 7 7 12 11 9 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 25 18 26 16 11 11 15 14 16 11 16 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 4 2 4 2 3 4 5 6 5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 7 2 5 3 3 4 4 5 5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 13 3 9 4 4 6 7 11 17 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 40 9 26 12 10 13 15 23 23 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na na 10.3 9.3 9.0 11.0 16.0 18.0 18.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 49.3 104 21.5 5.1 37.1 4.9 14.1 16.2 11.8 14.1 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 105 110 111 122 131 123 128 131 133 181 187 303 357

Exchange rate ($) annual average 77 75 79 92 94 95 97 98 120 164 166 244 284

Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - Ba2 B1 B1 B3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - B+ BB- BB- BB- B+ B B- B- naFitch - - - - B+ BB- BB- BB- B+ B B B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg

Angola



49

Argentina 202 ARG 213 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 60: Argentina key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B+/B EODB Rank: 117 (116) - Middle Corruption Rank: 85 (95) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 47 (45) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 9.0 4.1 -5.9 10.1 6.0 -1.0 2.4 -2.5 2.7 -1.8 2.9 2.0 3.2 NGDP_RPCH

Investment (% GDP) 20.1 19.6 16.1 17.7 18.4 16.5 17.3 17.3 17.1 17.0 19.1 17.4 17.4 NID_NGDP

Unemployment rate year-end (%) 8.5 7.9 8.7 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.3 na 8.5 8.4 8.0 7.5 LUR

Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 897 1,150 1,248 1,662 2,179 2,638 3,348 4,579 5,955 8,189 10,558 13,012 15,484 NGDP

Nominal GDP ($bn) 288 364 335 425 528 580 611 564 642 554 638 626 660 NGDPD

Population (mn) 39.4 39.7 40.1 40.8 41.3 41.7 42.2 42.7 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 LP

GDP per capita ($) 7,316 9,147 8,338 10,413 12,788 13,890 14,489 13,209 14,895 12,709 14,467 14,044 14,640 NGDPDPC

Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 113 136 150 204 295 387 508 617 838 1,088 1,640 2,164 2,857Lending/GDP (%) 12.6 11.8 12.0 12.3 13.5 14.7 15.2 13.5 14.1 13.3 15.5 16.6 18.5Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.2 21.1 18.2 17.3 17.4 16.1 15.2 15.6 14.3 14.4 14.2 12.3 11.9 NGSD_NGDP

PricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.8 8.6 6.3 10.5 9.8 10.0 10.6 na na na 25.7 22.7 15.4 PCPIPCH

CPI (year-end, % YoY) 8.5 7.2 7.7 10.9 9.5 10.8 10.9 23.9 na na 24.8 19.2 13.6 PCPIEPCH

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.1 0.2 -2.6 -1.4 -2.7 -3.0 -3.3 -4.3 -5.8 -6.4 -6.5 -5.5 -4.9 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 1.7 1.7 -1.3 -0.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.6 -3.5 -4.4 -4.7 -4.5 -3.5 -2.4 GGXONLB_NGDP

Total public debt (% of GDP) 61.0 52.6 53.8 42.0 37.5 38.9 41.7 43.6 55.1 53.3 52.6 54.1 52.7 GGXWDG_NGDP

External indicatorsExports ($bn) 47 56.0 70.0 55.6 67.4 82.1 78.6 74.3 67.4 56.7 57.6 57.5 na na TXG_FOB_USD

Imports ($bn) 34 44.5 57.4 38.4 55.9 72.5 68.4 74.0 65.2 59.7 59.5 67.5 na na TMG_CIF_USD

Trade balance ($bn) 11.5 12.6 17.2 11.5 9.6 10.2 0.3 2.2 -3.1 -1.9 -10.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 4.0 3.5 5.1 2.7 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -1.6 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 6.0 5.4 7.3 -1.6 -5.3 -2.1 -13.1 -9.2 -17.6 -14.7 -30.8 -31.9 -36.4 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 2.1 1.5 2.2 -0.4 -1.0 -0.4 -2.1 -1.6 -2.7 -2.7 -4.8 -5.1 -5.5 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 6.5 9.7 4.0 11.3 10.8 15.3 9.8 5.1 11.7 5.7 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.2 2.7 1.2 2.7 2.1 2.6 1.6 0.9 1.8 1.0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 4.3 4.2 3.4 2.3 1.0 2.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 20 25 -21 21 22 -4 -5 -9 -16 2 0 na naImports (% YoY, value) 31 29 -33 46 30 -6 8 -12 -8 0 13 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 44.7 44.9 46.1 49.7 43.2 39.9 28.1 29.0 23.4 36.3 53.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 12.0 9.4 14.4 10.7 7.2 7.0 4.6 5.3 4.7 7.3 9.4 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 124 125 120 132 144 145 144 146 171 181 233 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 43 34 36 31 27 25 24 26 27 33 37 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 222 178 215 196 175 185 193 217 301 314 405 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 28 33 30 30 40 38 37 29 54 36 54 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 9 9 7 8 7 6 5 8 7 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 49 47 53 45 49 48 50 43 96 63 94 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 62 73 64 61 93 95 133 100 232 100 102 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 9 10 15 16 16 13 15 17 18 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 16 14 27 23 19 17 21 25 31 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 20 21 32 31 37 33 55 57 76 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 10.8 10.0 8.5 10.5 7.5 12.8 33.0 28.0 33.0 24.8 28.8 30.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 21.4 14.0 15.4 37.7 24.7 31.6 25.5 28.3 37.3 37.5 28.1 na na FM3_XDC

Exchange rate (€) annual average 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.8 5.9 7.3 10.8 10.3 16.4 18.7 25.8 29.4

Exchange rate ($) annual average 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.6 5.5 8.1 9.3 14.8 16.6 20.8 23.5

Credit rating history LatestMoody's B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 Ca Ca Ca B3 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's B+ B- B- B B B- CCC+ Sdu Sdu B- B+ B+ naFitch RD RD RD B B CC CC RD RD B B B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg



50

61Figure 61: Credit ratings ARM Figure 62: Consensus forecasts Figure 65: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date Outlook (Prior) 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 3.8 3.9Moody's B1 Mar-16 + (Ba3) CPI (%) na naS&P - - na - C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch B+ Jan-15 + (BB-) Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's B1 Mar-16 + (Ba3) FX vs $, YE na naS&P - - na - FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B+ Jan-15 + (BB-) Note: Bloomberg Consensus

Figure 63: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.

Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 66: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$ARMEN 6 09/30/20 500 102.71 6.00 2.2 4.8 202.9 EJ8472569ARMEN 7.15 03/26/25 500 108.29 7.15 5.4 5.7 275.1 EK8187271CorporateARBANK 12 07/29/20 100 100.00 12.00 1.3 10.7 718.1 UV3439238


Figure 64: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 1.8 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 3.2

Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 20% EU 19%China 11% China 10%US 4% US 3%Japan 0% Japan 2%Other key countries Other key countriesRussia 15% Russia 29% Figure 68: CPI vs policy rateIraq 9% Iran 6%Georgia 8% Turkey 4%Canada 8% Ukraine 4%Bulgaria 5% Georgia 2%

Product ProductFood items 28% Other manufactures 23%Other ores and metals 28% Food items 21%Beverages and Tobacco 21% Machinery and transport 20%Other manufactures 16% Other machinery/transport 14%Non-Ferrous Metals 10% Fuels 14%


Armenia

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Armenia 2025 $ bond US generic 10y YtM

60

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11010

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410

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AMD vs $ AMD vs EURArmenia REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

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Armenia 3M auction yield Armenia 1Y auction yieldArmenia 5Y auction yield Armenia 10Y auction yield

-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.0

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Armenia CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



51

Figure 69: Armenia key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/-/B+ EODB Rank: 47 (38) - Strong Corruption Rank: 107 (113) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 13.7 6.9 -14.2 2.2 4.7 7.1 3.3 3.6 3.3 0.3 7.5 3.4 3.5Investment (% GDP) 38.2 43.8 33.8 29.4 27.0 22.8 20.7 20.8 20.9 19.5 20.8 21.9 22.6Unemployment rate year-end (%) 28.7 16.4 18.7 19.0 18.4 17.3 16.2 17.6 18.5 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.6Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 3,149 3,568 3,142 3,460 3,778 4,266 4,556 4,829 5,044 5,080 5,574 5,998 6,456Nominal GDP ($bn) 9.2 11.7 8.6 9.3 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.6 10.6 10.6 11.5 12.0 12.7Population (mn) 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0GDP per capita ($) 3,079 3,913 2,912 3,122 3,417 3,576 3,732 3,889 3,529 3,535 3,861 4,022 4,244Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 428 692 779 982 1,333 1,701 1,920 2,358 2,295 0 na na naLending/GDP (%) 13.6 19.4 24.8 28.4 35.3 39.9 42.1 48.8 45.5 0.0 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 30.8 29.6 17.3 15.8 16.6 12.8 13.4 13.2 18.4 17.2 18.2 19.1 19.8PricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.6 9.0 3.5 7.3 7.7 2.5 5.8 3.0 3.7 -1.4 0.9 3.5 4.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.7 5.3 6.7 8.5 4.7 3.2 5.6 4.6 -0.1 -1.1 2.6 4.0 4.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.3 -1.8 -7.7 -5.0 -2.9 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 -4.8 -5.6 -4.8 -2.6 -1.7Primary government balance -2.0 -1.5 -7.2 -4.1 -1.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -3.4 -3.7 -2.6 -0.3 0.5Total public debt (% of GDP) 14.2 14.6 34.1 33.7 35.7 35.6 36.2 39.3 44.1 51.7 53.5 54.8 55.6External indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.2 na naImports ($bn) 2 3.3 4.4 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.4 3.3 3.2 4.2 na naTrade balance ($bn) -2.1 -3.4 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -3.0 -2.9 -1.8 -1.4 -1.9 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -23.0 -28.9 -30.1 -29.2 -27.7 -26.7 -26.9 -24.8 -16.7 -13.5 -16.8 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.7 -1.7 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.4 -14.2 -16.5 -13.6 -10.4 -10.0 -7.3 -7.6 -2.6 -2.3 -2.6 -2.8 -2.8Net FDI ($bn) 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 7.3 8.1 8.8 5.7 6.4 4.7 3.4 3.5 1.7 3.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -0.1 -6.1 -7.7 -7.9 -4.0 -5.3 -3.9 -4.1 -0.9 0.9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 17 -8 -34 49 28 7 4 3 -2 21 25 na naImports (% YoY, value) 49 35 -25 13 11 3 5 -2 -26 -1 30 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.1 3.8 7.3 6.0 5.6 5.1 6.0 4.1 6.5 8.2 6.6 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 32 30 58 68 73 72 78 74 85 94 91 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 255 327 722 606 556 536 587 562 600 554 469 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 4 6 7 9 8 10 8 6 10 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 43 49 76 63 68 59 78 60 45 60 40 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 30 37 26 35 47 47 51 61 37 49 39 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 3 5 10 9 11 18 12 15 14 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 17 35 61 93 70 82 138 94 105 83 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 12 26 21 52 48 65 91 96 88 67 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 5.8 7.3 5.0 7.3 8.0 8.0 7.8 8.5 8.8 6.3 6.0 6.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 63.9 -4.1 -16.2 15.7 26.4 11.9 14.9 -3.5 5.2 24.8 28.9 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 469 450 507 496 519 517 544 553 530 532 545 618 638


Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - Ba2 Ba2 Ba3 B1 B1 B1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch BB- BB BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Armenia



52

70Figure 70: Credit ratings AZE Figure 71: Consensus forecasts Figure 74: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 1.8 3.3Moody's Ba2 Aug-17 (Ba1) = CPI (%) 6.0 5.5S&P BB+ Jan-16 (BBB-) = C/A bal. (% GDP) 3.7 5.2Fitch BB+ Feb-16 (BBB-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's Ba2 Aug-17 (Ba1) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P BB+ Jan-16 (BBB-) = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch BB+ Feb-16 (BBB-) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 75: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$AZERBJ 2.82 09/01/21 174 95.25 2.82 3.1 4.2 135.1 AO9863371AZERBJ 4 ¾ 03/18/24 1,250 99.94 4.75 5.1 4.8 184.1 EK1203901AZERBJ 5 ⅛ 09/01/29 311 98.65 5.13 7.8 5.3 232.0 AO9863728AZERBJ 3 ½ 09/01/32 1,077 82.72 3.50 10.1 5.2 234.7 AO9863793CorporateSGCAZE 6 ⅞ 03/24/26 2,000 109.40 6.88 6.1 5.4 241.3 JK5150160SOIAZ 4 ¾ 03/13/23 1,000 99.70 4.75 4.3 4.8 186.2 EJ5777036SOIAZ 6.95 03/18/30 750 107.50 6.95 8.1 6.0 302.3 EK7906770IBAZAZ 3 ½ 09/01/24 1,000 88.47 3.50 5.5 5.7 276.0 AO9864171



Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 51% EU 22%US 4% US 9%China 0% Japan 6%Japan 0% China 6%Other key countries Other key countriesIsrael 7% Russia 16% Figure 77: CPI vs policy rateCzech Republic 5% Turkey 13%Indonesia 4% UK 6%Russia 4% Ukraine 3%Georgia 3% Norway 2%

Product ProductFuels 90% Machinery and transport 39%Food items 5% Other machinery/transport 34%Chemicals 1% Other manufactures 27%Other manufactures 1% Food items 15%Machinery and transport 1% Chemicals 9%


Azerbaijan

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Azerbaijan CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



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Figure 78: Azerbaijan key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB+/BB+ EODB Rank: 57 (65) - Middle Corruption Rank: 122 (123) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 25.5 10.6 9.4 4.6 -1.6 2.1 5.9 2.7 0.6 -3.1 0.1 2.0 3.9Investment (% GDP) 21.5 18.7 18.9 18.1 20.3 22.3 25.7 27.5 27.9 24.9 21.4 26.1 25.7Unemployment rate year-end (%) 6.3 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 28.4 40.1 35.6 42.5 52.1 54.7 58.2 59.0 54.4 60.4 69.1 77.3 81.5Nominal GDP ($bn) 33.1 49.0 44.3 52.9 66.0 69.7 74.2 75.2 50.8 37.8 40.7 45.5 47.9Population (mn) 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.1GDP per capita ($) 3,818 5,579 4,964 5,881 7,243 7,546 7,926 7,939 5,300 3,896 4,141 4,576 4,764Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 4.1 6.3 6.8 7.6 9.0 10.8 14.7 18.1 20.9 16.0 11.5 na naLending/GDP (%) 14.4 15.6 19.1 17.9 17.3 19.8 25.3 30.7 38.4 26.6 16.6 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 44.6 49.5 39.8 44.1 46.3 43.8 42.2 40.5 27.3 22.7 24.2 30.8 31.7PricesCPI (average % YoY) 16.7 20.8 1.5 5.7 7.8 1.1 2.5 1.5 4.1 12.6 13.0 7.0 6.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 19.6 15.5 0.7 8.0 5.6 -0.3 3.7 -0.1 7.8 15.6 10.0 7.0 5.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 2.3 17.2 5.9 13.8 10.9 3.7 1.6 2.7 -4.8 -1.2 0.9 2.4 2.1Primary government balance 2.5 17.3 6.0 13.8 10.9 3.8 1.7 2.9 -4.4 -0.8 1.5 3.2 3.3Total public debt (% of GDP) 8.3 6.9 12.4 12.5 11.2 13.8 12.6 14.4 35.0 50.7 54.7 54.9 56.4External indicatorsExports ($bn) 6 6.1 47.8 14.7 21.4 26.6 23.9 24.0 21.8 11.0 9.1 11.2 na naImports ($bn) 5 5.7 7.2 6.1 6.6 9.8 9.7 10.7 9.2 9.2 8.5 8.8 na naTrade balance ($bn) 0.3 40.6 8.6 14.8 16.8 14.3 13.3 12.6 1.8 0.6 2.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 1.0 82.9 19.4 27.9 25.5 20.5 17.9 16.8 3.6 1.6 6.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 9.0 16.5 10.2 15.0 17.1 14.9 12.3 10.4 -0.2 -1.4 1.4 2.6 3.3Current account balance (% of GDP) 27.3 33.6 23.0 28.4 26.0 21.4 16.6 13.9 -0.4 -3.6 3.5 5.6 7.0Net FDI ($bn) -4.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 1.5 2.0 2.6 4.4 4.0 4.5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) -14.4 0.0 1.1 1.1 2.2 2.9 3.5 5.9 8.0 11.9 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 12.9 33.6 24.0 29.5 28.2 24.3 20.2 19.8 7.5 8.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) -5 688 -69 45 24 -10 0 -9 -50 -17 22 na naImports (% YoY, value) 8 25 -15 8 48 -1 11 -14 0 -7 3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 4.3 6.5 5.4 6.4 10.3 11.3 14.4 14.6 6.3 5.8 6.7 na naImport cover (months of imports) 9.0 10.8 10.6 11.7 12.6 14.0 16.1 19.1 8.2 8.2 9.1 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 5 7 8 8 9 12 15 19 21 22 19 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 14 13 17 15 14 17 20 25 41 57 46 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 76 14 51 38 35 49 61 88 189 235 166 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 4 3 3 2 3 4 4 5 7 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 28 4 8 7 6 9 11 14 25 29 17 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 39 27 23 25 15 20 19 21 43 45 28 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 1 1 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 4 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 4 1 2 2 7 8 10 8 10 16 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 6 5 7 7 18 17 17 12 18 26 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 12.0 8.0 2.0 3.0 5.3 5.0 4.8 3.5 3.0 15.0 15.0 11.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 93.9 44.0 -0.3 24.3 32.1 20.8 14.9 11.8 -1.1 -2.0 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1.17 1.21 1.12 1.06 1.10 1.01 1.04 1.04 1.19 1.77 1.92 2.11 2.13


Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - - - - - Baa3 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's - BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ naFitch BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Azerbaijan



54

Bahrain 203 BHR 419 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 79: Bahrain key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1u/B+/BB- EODB Rank: 66 (63) - Middle Corruption Rank: 103 (70) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.3 6.2 2.5 4.3 2.0 3.7 5.4 4.4 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.3 NGDP_RPCH


Unemployment rate year-end (%) 5.6 3.7 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.7 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 LUR

Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 8.2 9.7 8.6 9.7 10.8 11.6 12.2 12.6 11.7 12.1 13.1 14.2 14.9 NGDP

Nominal GDP ($bn) 21.7 25.7 22.9 25.7 28.8 30.7 32.5 33.4 31.1 32.2 34.9 37.8 39.7 NGDPD

Population (mn) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 4.3 6.2 6.2 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.5 8.0 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.4Lending/GDP (%) 53.1 64.2 71.4 67.7 69.6 69.1 69.6 63.9 73.7 73.2 69.5 66.0 62.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 42.2 39.5 28.7 31.0 31.2 36.5 33.3 31.4 22.0 21.1 20.7 21.5 21.3 NGSD_NGDP

PricesCPI (average % YoY) 3.3 3.5 2.8 2.0 -0.4 2.8 3.3 2.7 1.8 2.8 1.4 2.9 4.9 PCPIPCH

CPI (year-end, % YoY) 4.0 5.1 1.6 1.0 0.2 2.6 4.0 2.5 0.7 2.3 1.4 2.7 4.7 PCPIEPCH

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 1.6 4.3 -5.6 -5.8 -1.5 -5.5 -9.7 -3.4 -18.4 -17.9 -15.1 -11.6 -11.6 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 2.4 4.8 -5.0 -4.9 -0.4 -4.2 -8.2 -1.6 -16.1 -14.9 -11.3 -7.0 -6.3 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) -8.3 -13.7 -8.8 -11.1 -10.3 -7.4 -8.2 3.2 0.1 -2.0 -1.5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -38.4 -53.1 -38.3 -43.1 -35.9 -23.9 -25.2 9.5 0.2 -6.4 -4.4 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 2.9 2.3 0.6 0.8 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.5 -0.8 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.3 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 13.4 8.8 2.4 3.0 8.8 8.4 7.4 4.6 -2.4 -4.6 -3.9 -3.2 -3.3 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 0.9 2.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.5 3.7 1.5 -1.5 0.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.2 10.3 1.1 0.6 0.3 5.0 11.5 4.5 -4.7 0.9 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 17.6 19.0 3.6 3.6 9.1 13.4 18.9 9.1 -7.1 -3.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 23 50 -32 53 49 -6 51 123 -29 -23 22 na naImports (% YoY, value) 29 60 -35 33 10 -19 31 8 -18 -10 16 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 4.2 3.9 3.8 5.1 4.5 5.2 5.3 6.0 3.4 2.4 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.4 2.5 3.8 3.8 3.1 4.4 3.4 3.6 2.5 2.0 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 67 69 61 61 57 46 53 50 46 50 52 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 306 270 264 239 197 149 164 151 149 155 149 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 2082 1443 1864 1238 770 658 508 216 281 390 333 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 28 22 19 20 19 13 14 14 16 16 18 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 128 84 85 79 65 43 44 41 53 50 51 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 872 451 600 408 252 191 135 59 99 127 114 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 661 553 506 398 409 256 265 228 484 665 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.8 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 34.8 21.0 5.3 13.0 5.2 4.4 7.5 3.7 2.2 1.1 4.2 na na FM3_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A2 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 Ba2u B1u B1u naStandard & Poor's A A A A BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB- B+ B+ naFitch A A A A BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB+ BB+ BB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




55

Bangladesh 204 BGD 513 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 80: Bangladesh key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/BB-/BB- EODB Rank: 177 (176) - Weak Corruption Rank: 143 (145) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 7 (8) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.5 5.5 5.3 6.0 6.5 6.3 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 NGDP_RPCH


Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR

Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 5,892 6,669 7,513 8,567 9,855 11,271 12,713 14,297 16,243 18,543 21,086 23,939 27,192 NGDP


Population (mn) 146 148 150 151 153 155 157 158 160 162 163 165 167 LP

GDP per capita ($) 585 656 728 808 857 916 1,030 1,163 1,303 1,459 1,602 1,734 1,878 NGDPDPC

Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1,892 2,284 2,712 3,473 4,114 4,790 5,189 6,125 6,978 8,131 9,689 11,530 13,490Lending/GDP (%) 32.1 34.2 36.1 40.5 41.7 42.5 40.8 42.8 43.0 43.8 46.0 48.2 49.6Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 27.8 28.2 29.0 29.1 29.4 30.2 29.8 29.1 30.3 30.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 NGSD_NGDP

PricesCPI (average % YoY) 9.1 8.9 4.9 9.4 11.5 6.2 7.5 7.0 6.2 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.0 PCPIPCH


Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.2 -4.0 -3.2 -2.7 -3.6 -3.0 -3.4 -3.1 -4.0 -3.4 -3.3 -4.1 -4.6 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance -0.6 -1.9 -1.0 -0.8 -1.9 -1.1 -1.4 -1.0 -1.9 -1.5 -1.6 -2.4 -2.7 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) -6.2 -10.2 -7.4 -11.3 -13.0 -11.9 -11.6 -13.2 -9.5 -11.0 -16.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -7.3 -10.5 -6.8 -9.2 -10.0 -8.4 -7.2 -7.2 -4.6 -4.7 -6.3 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0.6 1.2 2.7 0.5 -1.3 1.0 1.9 2.1 3.6 1.4 -3.2 -5.8 -7.2 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 0.7 1.2 2.4 0.4 -1.0 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.7 0.6 -1.2 -2.0 -2.3 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.5 2.3 3.1 1.2 -0.2 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.8 1.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 13 12 6 15 40 -4 16 10 5 1 4 na naImports (% YoY, value) 15 29 -8 27 30 -6 10 11 -5 4 16 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 5.2 5.7 10.2 10.6 8.5 12.0 17.6 21.8 27.0 31.8 32.8 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.4 2.9 5.6 4.6 2.8 4.2 5.6 6.3 8.2 9.3 8.3 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 22 24 27 23 22 26 32 35 38 41 47 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 25 25 25 19 17 18 20 19 18 18 18 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 177 177 186 140 97 117 123 122 128 137 149 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 2 3 3 0 0 2 4 3 7 8 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3 3 3 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 19 22 23 1 0 8 14 12 22 26 0 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 44 54 32 2 0 14 21 16 25 25 0 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 19 17 10 11 19 14 11 9 6 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na 8.8 4.5 5.5 7.3 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 6.8 6.8 6.8 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 14.7 17.9 20.7 21.7 19.1 19.0 15.6 13.3 13.1 13.8 10.7 na na FM2_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's - - - BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- naFitch - - - - - - - BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




56

81Figure 81: Credit ratings BLR Figure 82: Consensus forecasts Figure 85: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date Outlook (Prior) 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's B3 Mar-18 = (Caa1) CPI (%) na naS&P B Oct-17 = (B) C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch B Jan-18 = (B-) Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's B3 Mar-18 = (B3) FX vs $, YE na naS&P B Oct-17 = (B-) FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B Jan-18 = (B-) Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 86: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$BELRUS 6 7/8 02/28/23 800 105.12 6.88 4.0 5.6 274.9 AN9885699BELRUS 7 5/8 06/29/27 600 108.38 7.63 6.5 6.4 344.0 AN9893586BELRUS 6.2 02/28/30 600 97.73 6.20 8.2 6.5 348.0 AR2861037Corporate AN9885699EUROTG 8 3/4 10/30/22 350 101.74 8.75 3.3 8.3 534.7 AP6399228

QJ1649335EJ1291206



Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 17% EU 13%China 3% China 8%US 0% US 1%Japan 0% Japan 0%Other key countries Other key countriesRussia 39% Russia 57% Figure 88: CPI vs policy rateUK 11% Poland 4%Ukraine 9% Ukraine 3%Poland 3% Turkey 2%Kazakhstan 2% Morocco 1%

Product ProductOther manufactures 22% Fuels 27%Food items 17% Machinery and transport 20%Machinery and transport 16% Other machinery/transport 15%Other machinery/transport 14% Food items 14%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 5% Chemicals 12%


Belarus

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Belarus 2027 $ bond US generic 10y YtM

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1100.0

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BYN vs $ BYN vs EURBelarus REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

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Belarus CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



57

Figure 89: Belarus key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B/B EODB Rank: 38 (37) - Strong Corruption Rank: 68 (79) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 55 (52) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.6 10.2 0.2 7.8 5.6 1.7 1.0 1.7 -3.8 -2.5 2.4 2.8 2.5Investment (% GDP) 34.1 37.6 36.9 40.7 37.2 35.1 38.8 34.8 29.0 26.5 25.2 25.6 25.9Unemployment rate year-end (%) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 9.7 13.0 14.2 17.0 30.7 54.8 67.1 80.6 89.9 94.9 105.2 115.0 125.1Nominal GDP ($bn) 45.3 60.7 50.9 57.2 61.4 65.7 75.5 78.7 56.3 47.7 54.4 59.2 61.5Population (mn) 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4GDP per capita ($) 4,726 6,366 5,345 6,023 6,473 6,938 7,977 8,316 5,941 5,022 5,760 6,301 6,575Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 2.4 3.7 5.1 7.3 11.5 11.4 14.4 17.8 21.6 20.6 23.5 na naLending/GDP (%) 24.8 28.6 35.7 42.6 37.4 20.8 21.5 22.1 24.0 21.7 22.3 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 27.4 29.5 24.8 26.2 29.0 32.3 28.8 28.2 25.8 23.0 23.4 23.1 23.3PricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.4 14.8 13.0 7.7 53.2 59.2 18.3 18.1 13.5 11.8 6.0 6.0 6.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 12.1 13.3 10.1 9.9 108.7 21.8 16.5 16.2 12.0 10.6 4.6 6.0 6.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -8.1 -11.3 -7.2 -4.2 -2.8 0.4 -1.0 0.1 -2.2 -3.4 -1.7 -2.4 -3.0Primary government balance -7.7 -10.7 -6.5 -3.5 -1.7 1.7 0.0 1.1 -0.5 -1.4 0.4 0.0 -0.5Total public debt (% of GDP) 16.4 21.0 32.5 36.8 58.2 36.9 36.9 38.8 53.0 53.5 51.0 49.5 49.9External indicatorsExports ($bn) 20 24.3 32.5 21.3 25.3 41.4 46.0 37.1 36.0 26.6 23.5 29.2 na naImports ($bn) 22 28.7 39.4 28.6 34.9 45.8 46.4 43.0 40.5 30.3 27.6 34.2 na naTrade balance ($bn) -4.4 -6.8 -7.3 -9.6 -4.3 -0.4 -5.9 -4.5 -3.6 -4.1 -5.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -9.8 -11.3 -14.4 -16.8 -7.1 -0.6 -7.8 -5.7 -6.5 -8.5 -9.2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -3.0 -5.0 -6.1 -8.3 -5.1 -1.9 -7.6 -5.2 -1.8 -1.7 -1.0 -1.5 -1.6Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.7 -8.2 -12.1 -14.5 -8.2 -2.8 -10.0 -6.6 -3.3 -3.5 -1.8 -2.5 -2.7Net FDI ($bn) 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.4 4.0 1.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.0 3.6 3.7 2.4 6.5 2.2 3.0 2.3 2.8 2.6 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.7 -4.6 -8.4 -12.0 -1.7 -0.7 -7.1 -4.3 -0.4 -0.9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 23 34 -35 19 64 11 -19 -3 -26 -12 24 na naImports (% YoY, value) 28 37 -27 22 31 1 -7 -6 -25 -9 24 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 4.0 2.7 4.8 3.4 6.0 5.8 4.9 3.4 2.7 3.2 5.4 na naImport cover (months of imports) 1.7 0.8 2.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.9 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 12 15 22 28 34 34 40 40 38 38 40 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 28 25 43 50 55 51 52 51 68 79 73 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 52 47 104 112 82 73 107 111 144 159 137 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 7 8 9 12 13 12 14 13 11 11 10 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 16 12 18 21 22 18 19 16 20 22 18 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 30 23 43 47 32 25 38 36 43 45 33 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 186 282 188 346 224 200 285 375 418 331 180 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 6 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 3 3 5 8 6 7 9 12 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 5 4 8 7 8 11 13 15 20 25 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 28 52 35 51 54 87 95 156 195 185 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 10.0 12.0 13.5 10.5 45.0 30.0 23.5 20.0 25.0 18.0 11.0 10.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 40.0 26.3 23.1 31.9 121.2 44.6 20.2 23.9 36.5 3.8 17.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 0.29 0.31 0.39 0.40 0.70 1.07 1.18 1.36 1.77 2.20 2.18 2.41 2.55



Moody's - - - B1 B3 B3 B3 B3 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 B3 naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B+ B- B- B- B- B- B- B B naFitch - - - - - - - - - B- B- B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Belarus



58

90Figure 90: Credit ratings BRA Figure 91: Consensus forecasts Figure 94: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 2.6 2.8Moody's Ba2 Feb-16 (Baa3) = CPI (%) 3.4 4.1S&P BB- Jan-18 (BB) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -1.2 -1.8Fitch BB- Feb-18 (BB) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -7.3 -6.2Local currencyMoody's Ba2 Feb-16 (Baa3) = FX vs $, YE 3.3 3.3S&P BB- Jan-18 (BB) = FX vs EUR, YE 3.5 3.5Fitch BB- Feb-18 (BB) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus

Figure 92: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.

Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 95: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$BRAZIL 4 7/8 01/22/21 2,713 103.50 4.88 2.5 3.5 69.7 EI2240923BRAZIL 2 5/8 01/05/23 2,150 94.25 2.63 4.3 4.0 105.7 EJ3529579BRAZIL 8 7/8 04/15/24 1,029 125.69 8.88 4.8 4.0 104.4 EC3590501BRAZIL 8 7/8 04/15/24 86 125.48 8.88 4.8 4.0 107.8 ED0847993BRAZIL 4 1/4 01/07/25 4,300 98.84 4.25 5.7 4.5 148.1 EJ9011747BRAZIL 8 3/4 02/04/25 688 126.06 8.75 5.2 4.3 130.8 ED8017961BRAZIL 6 04/07/26 2,176 108.59 6.00 6.3 4.7 170.6 JK4244196BRAZIL 10 1/8 05/15/27 838 140.05 10.13 6.3 4.6 165.6 TT3330608BRAZIL 4 5/8 01/13/28 3,000 96.79 4.63 7.6 5.0 203.2 AP4166843BRAZIL 12 1/4 03/06/30 240 161.25 12.25 7.4 5.2 222.1 EC2324027BRAZIL 8 1/4 01/20/34 1,502 124.69 8.25 9.4 5.8 277.4 ED2893128BRAZIL 7 1/8 01/20/37 1,920 114.99 7.13 10.7 5.8 273.4 EF2387670BRAZIL 5 5/8 01/07/41 2,484 95.82 5.63 12.3 6.0 289.2 EH9950625Figure 96: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)BRAZIL 5 01/27/45 3,550 86.87 5.00 13.6 6.0 292.7 EK4038676BRAZIL 5 5/8 02/21/47 3,000 94.80 5.63 13.6 6.0 294.9 LW9795870lclBRAZIL 10 1/4 01/10/28 4,765 114.50 10.25 6.2 8.1 na EG1787746


Geographic share Geographic shareChina 19% China 18%Euro area 15% EU 18%US 13% US 16%Japan 3% Japan 3%Other key countries Other key countriesArgentina 7% Argentina 6% Figure 97: CPI vs policy rateChile 2% Korea 3%India 2% Nigeria 3%Mexico 2% Mexico 3%Korea 2% India 3%

Product ProductFood items 37% Machinery and transport 37%Machinery and transport 19% Other machinery/transport 27%Other machinery/transport 18% Chemicals 25%Other manufactures 13% Other manufactures 15%Other ores and metals 10% Fuels 11%


Brazil

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Brazil CPI, % YoY Policy rate (%)



59

Figure 98: Brazil key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB-/BB- EODB Rank: 125 (123) - Middle Corruption Rank: 96 (79) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 56 (56) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.1 5.1 -0.1 7.5 4.0 1.9 3.0 0.5 -3.6 -3.5 1.0 2.3 2.5Investment (% GDP) 19.8 21.7 18.8 21.9 21.9 21.5 21.8 20.6 17.5 15.4 15.5 16.1 16.9Unemployment rate year-end (%) 10.9 9.4 9.7 8.5 7.8 7.4 7.2 6.8 8.3 11.3 12.8 11.6 10.5Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 2,718 3,108 3,330 3,884 4,376 4,815 5,330 5,778 5,995 6,257 6,558 6,950 7,458Nominal GDP ($bn) 1396 1695 1668 2208 2614 2464 2471 2456 1800 1793 2055 2139 2257Population (mn) 189 192 194 195 197 199 201 203 204 206 208 209 211GDP per capita ($) 7,369 8,850 8,617 11,292 13,242 12,368 12,292 12,110 8,802 8,700 9,895 10,224 10,712Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1,329 1,697 1,868 2,403 2,954 3,498 3,988 4,489 4,791 4,658 4,475 4,296 4,210Lending/GDP (%) 48.9 54.6 56.1 61.9 67.5 72.6 74.8 77.7 79.9 74.4 68.2 61.8 56.4Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 19.8 19.9 17.2 18.4 18.9 18.5 18.7 16.3 14.2 14.1 15.0 14.5 15.1PricesCPI (average % YoY) 3.6 5.7 4.9 5.0 6.6 5.4 6.2 6.3 9.0 8.7 3.4 3.5 4.2CPI (year-end, % YoY) 4.5 5.9 4.3 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.9 6.4 10.7 6.3 2.9 3.9 4.3Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.7 -1.5 -3.2 -2.7 -2.5 -2.5 -3.0 -5.4 -10.3 -9.0 -7.8 -8.3 -8.3Primary government balance 3.2 3.8 1.9 2.3 2.9 1.9 1.7 0.0 -2.0 -2.5 -1.7 -2.3 -1.8Total public debt (% of GDP) 63.8 61.9 65.0 63.1 61.2 62.2 60.2 62.3 72.6 78.4 84.0 87.3 90.2External indicatorsExports ($bn) 138 157 198 151 202 256 242 242 225 191 185 218 na naImports ($bn) 98 129 184 134 192 240 236 254 243 182 145 160 na naTrade balance ($bn) 27.7 14.4 17.0 9.4 16.3 5.6 -12.3 -17.7 9.4 39.4 58.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 2.0 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 0.5 2.2 2.8 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0.4 -30.6 -26.3 -75.8 -77.0 -74.2 -74.8 -104.2 -59.4 -23.5 -9.8 -33.5 -40.1Current account balance (% of GDP) 0.0 -1.8 -1.6 -3.4 -2.9 -3.0 -3.0 -4.2 -3.3 -1.3 -0.5 -1.6 -1.8Net FDI ($bn) 34.6 45.1 25.9 83.7 96.2 76.1 53.1 73.1 64.6 58.7 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.5 2.7 1.6 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.1 3.0 3.6 3.3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2.5 0.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 -0.9 -1.3 0.3 2.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 13.4 26.1 -23.9 34.1 26.8 -5.4 -0.2 -6.9 -15.1 -3.4 18.0 na naImports (% YoY, value) 32.6 42.0 -27.2 44.1 24.6 -1.4 7.4 -4.4 -25.1 -20.1 10.1 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 179 193 237 286 350 370 356 361 354 363 371 na naImport cover (months of imports) 16.7 12.6 21.3 17.8 17.5 18.8 16.8 17.8 23.4 30.0 27.9 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 241 263 278 352 404 441 483 713 665 677 669 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 17.3 15.5 16.6 15.9 15.5 17.9 19.5 29.0 37.0 37.7 32.5 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 154 133 184 174 158 182 200 317 348 367 307 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 38.9 36.4 31.0 57.3 40.1 32.6 32.6 57.6 51.1 56.3 51.8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2.8 2.2 1.9 2.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 2.3 2.8 3.1 2.5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 24.8 18.4 20.6 28.4 15.7 13.5 13.5 25.6 26.8 30.5 23.8 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 21.7 18.9 13.0 20.0 11.5 8.8 9.2 16.0 14.4 15.5 14.0 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 55.0 56.5 44.5 45.9 59.1 45.5 82.0 62.2 89.8 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3.9 3.3 2.7 2.1 2.3 1.8 3.3 2.5 5.0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 35.1 28.6 29.6 22.7 23.1 18.8 33.9 27.6 47.0 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 30.7 29.3 18.8 16.0 16.9 12.3 23.0 17.2 25.4 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 11.3 13.8 8.8 10.8 11.0 7.3 10.0 11.8 14.3 13.8 7.0 6.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 20.9 19.0 16.1 16.8 16.8 15.6 7.3 13.4 11.2 10.8 7.7 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 2.67 2.70 2.78 2.33 2.33 2.51 2.87 3.13 3.70 3.86 3.61 4.03 4.14


Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba1 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB BB- naFitch BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BB+ BB BB BB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Brazil



60

99Figure 99: Credit ratings CMR Figure 100: Consensus forecasts Figure 103: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's B2 Aug-16 (-) = CPI (%) na naS&P B Feb-07 (B-) = C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch B Jun-06 (B-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's B2 Aug-16 (-) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P B Feb-07 (B-) = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B May-12 (B-) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 104: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$REPCAM 9 ½ 11/19/25 750 115.59 9.50 4.8 6.8 346.8 QJ7814669



Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 36% China 28%China 17% EU 25%US 3% US 3%Japan 0% Japan 0%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 16% Nigeria 14% Figure 106: CPI vs policy rateUK 3% India 3%Vietnam 3% Thailand 3%Chad 2% Ivory Coast 2%DR Congo 2% Equatorial Guinea 2%

Product ProductFuels 34% Machinery and transport 27%Food items 28% Other machinery/transport 22%Agricultural raw materials 21% Other manufactures 21%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 4% Food items 19%Other manufactures 4% Fuels 18%


Cameroon

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Cameroon CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



61

Figure 107: Cameroon key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B/B EODB Rank: 163 (166) - Weak Corruption Rank: 153 (145) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 9 (11) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.9 3.5 2.2 3.4 4.1 4.5 5.4 5.9 5.7 4.5 3.2 4.0 4.5Investment (% GDP) 15.0 25.9 29.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.3 29.3 27.7 27.5 26.2 26.2 26.4Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl tn) 10.7 11.8 12.3 12.9 13.8 14.9 16.0 17.3 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.7 21.8Nominal GDP ($bn) 22.4 26.5 26.1 26.2 29.4 29.1 32.4 35.0 30.9 32.2 34.0 39.1 41.7Population (mn) 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.5GDP per capita ($) 1,188 1,369 1,309 1,282 1,403 1,357 1,471 1,552 1,339 1,361 1,401 1,570 1,637Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.1 na naLending/GDP (%) 9.9 10.9 11.6 13.1 14.8 14.1 15.1 15.4 16.5 17.3 15.7 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 13.6 24.8 25.9 25.5 25.2 24.6 24.8 25.3 23.9 24.3 23.7 23.7 24.1PricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.1 5.3 3.0 1.3 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.7 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.3CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.4 5.3 0.9 2.6 2.7 2.5 1.7 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 4.3 2.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.4 -1.4 -3.7 -4.2 -4.4 -6.2 -4.3 -2.2 -1.8Primary government balance 4.7 2.3 0.2 -0.7 -2.0 -1.1 -3.3 -3.8 -4.0 -5.4 -3.4 -1.4 -1.1Total public debt (% of GDP) 14.8 11.7 12.0 14.7 15.7 15.4 18.2 21.5 30.9 31.5 33.8 34.3 34.1External indicatorsExports ($bn) 3 4.1 2.2 1.8 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.5 5.2 4.0 2.2 2.7 na naImports ($bn) 3 3.3 4.2 3.7 5.1 6.6 6.4 6.6 7.5 6.0 4.9 4.9 na naTrade balance ($bn) 0.8 -2.0 -1.9 -0.9 -2.1 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.0 -2.8 -2.2 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 3.7 -7.5 -7.4 -3.2 -7.3 -7.3 -6.7 -6.6 -6.4 -8.5 -6.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.3 -1.1 -3.1 -2.5 -2.7 -3.3 -3.6 -4.0 -3.8 -3.2 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4Net FDI ($bn) 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0.9 -0.1 2.6 0.0 1.2 2.5 1.8 1.6 2.0 0.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2.1 -1.1 -0.6 -2.5 -1.5 -0.7 -1.8 -2.4 -1.8 -2.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 18 -48 -17 134 5 -3 4 17 -22 -46 25 na naImports (% YoY, value) 4 26 -10 36 30 -2 4 13 -20 -18 0 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 2.9 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 2.2 3.2 na naImport cover (months of imports) 10.6 8.9 11.9 8.6 5.8 6.3 6.3 5.1 7.1 5.4 7.8 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 6 10 7 9 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 8 9 10 10 11 12 17 33 23 28 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 57 99 135 61 63 71 88 112 254 342 352 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 30 0 1 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 35 0 1 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 12 20 22 5 7 6 5 8 11 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 17 14 11 6 10 7 6 14 12 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 12.8 18.4 7.7 13.1 12.0 0.5 11.7 13.1 9.0 5.0 3.6 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 657 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656


Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - - B2 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's B B B B B B B B B B B B naFitch B B B B B B B B B B B B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Cameroon



62

Chile 207 CHL 228 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 108: Chile key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa3/A+/A EODB Rank: 55 (57) - Middle Corruption Rank: 26 (24) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 78 (71) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.9 3.6 -1.6 5.8 6.1 5.3 4.1 1.8 2.3 1.3 1.5 3.4 3.3 NGDP_RPCH



Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 91 94 97 111 122 130 138 149 160 169 180 194 206 NGDP


Population (mn) 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 64 72 70 76 89 100 109 122 137 144 149 154 163Lending/GDP (%) 70.9 76.6 73 69 73 77 79 82 86 85 83 79 79Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 25.1 24.5 22.6 24.8 23.3 22.4 21.6 21.6 21.4 20.9 20.5 21.0 21.0 NGSD_NGDP


CPI (year-end, % YoY) 7.9 7.1 -1.5 2.9 4.4 1.5 2.9 4.7 4.4 2.8 2.3 2.6 3.0 PCPIEPCH

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 7.9 3.9 -4.2 -0.4 1.4 0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -2.1 -2.7 -2.7 -0.9 -0.6 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 7.7 3.6 -4.4 -0.3 1.5 0.8 -0.4 -1.3 -1.9 -2.4 -2.4 -0.5 -0.1 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) 21.0 1.7 12.7 11.9 6.7 -2.3 -2.9 2.1 -0.3 4.2 3.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 12.1 1.0 7.3 5.5 2.7 -0.9 -1.0 0.8 -0.1 1.7 1.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 7.5 -7.0 3.3 3.2 -4.2 -10.4 -11.3 -4.3 -5.6 -3.5 -4.1 -5.0 -5.5 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 4.3 -3.9 1.9 1.4 -1.6 -3.9 -4.0 -1.7 -2.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.8 -1.9 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 12.6 15.5 12.4 16.6 16.7 25.0 17.9 21.2 20.2 11.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 7.2 8.6 7.2 7.6 6.6 9.4 6.4 8.1 8.3 4.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 11.6 4.8 9.1 9.0 5.0 5.4 2.4 6.5 6.0 3.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 15 -6 -14 28 15 -4 -2 -2 -17 -4 14 na naImports (% YoY, value) 22 32 -32 38 26 7 -1 -8 -14 -11 17 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 16.8 23.1 25.3 27.8 41.9 41.6 41.1 40.4 38.6 40.5 39.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.2 4.4 7.1 5.6 6.7 6.2 6.2 6.7 7.4 8.7 7.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 56 65 74 87 101 123 136 152 161 167 182 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 32 36 43 40 40 46 49 58 66 67 66 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 82 101 133 122 124 158 179 203 259 279 266 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 10 14 16 16 18 21 18 17 13 13 18 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 6 8 9 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 6 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 14 21 28 22 22 27 23 22 20 22 26 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 58 60 61 56 44 50 43 41 32 32 45 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts


Exchange rate (€) annual average 716 769 780 677 674 626 658 758 726 749 733 856 875


Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A2 A1 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 naStandard & Poor's A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- A+ A+ naFitch A A A A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




63

China 208 CHN 924 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 109: China key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/A+/A+ EODB Rank: 78 (78) - Middle Corruption Rank: 77 (79) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 56 (54) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.6 9.5 7.9 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.4 NGDP_RPCH



Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 27.2 32.0 35.0 41.1 48.6 54.1 59.7 64.7 69.9 74.6 81.2 88.6 96.5 NGDP

Nominal GDP ($bn) 3,571 4,604 5,122 6,066 7,522 8,570 9,635 10,535 11,226 11,222 12,015 14,093 15,544 NGDPD

Population (mn) 1,321 1,328 1,335 1,341 1,347 1,354 1,361 1,368 1,375 1,383 1,390 1,397 1,403 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 28.6 32.6 43.4 52.2 60.1 69.4 79.6 90.3 105.1 116.6 128.9 141.8 157.4Lending/GDP (%) 105.2 101.8 123.9 127.0 123.6 128.3 133.4 139.5 150.4 156.4 158.7 160.1 163.0Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 51.1 52.3 51.1 51.8 49.8 49.7 48.8 49.0 47.5 45.9 45.8 45.4 44.9 NGSD_NGDP

PricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.3 5.4 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.6 2.5 2.6 PCPIPCH



Primary government balance 0.4 0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -2.2 -2.9 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 GGXONLB_NGDP


External indicatorsExports ($bn) 969 1,218 1,429 1,202 1,578 1,899 2,050 2,211 2,343 2,281 2,137 2,280 na na TXG_FOB_USD

Imports ($bn) 792 956 1,132 1,004 1,394 1,741 1,817 1,949 1,963 1,602 1,589 1,832 na na TMG_CIF_USD

Trade balance ($bn) 262 297 198 185 158 233 261 380 679 547 448 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 7.3 6.4 3.9 3.0 2.1 2.7 2.7 3.6 6.0 4.9 3.7 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 353 421 243 238 136 215 148 236 304 202 165 167 179 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 9.9 9.1 4.8 3.9 1.8 2.5 1.5 2.2 2.7 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 84 108 95 115 124 121 124 129 136 134 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 12.2 11.5 6.6 5.8 3.5 3.9 2.8 3.5 3.9 3.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 26 17 -16 31 20 8 8 6 -3 -6 7 na naImports (% YoY, value) 21 18 -11 39 25 4 7 1 -18 -1 15 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1,530 1,949 2,416 2,862 3,203 3,331 3,840 3,859 3,345 3,030 3,159 na naImport cover (months of imports) 19.2 20.7 28.9 24.6 22.1 22.0 23.6 23.6 25.1 22.9 20.7 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 286 375 440 560 706 748 874 896 1383 1421 1680 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 13 14 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 23 26 37 35 37 36 40 38 61 66 74 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 167 187 241 348 477 510 625 621 822 801 1023 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 14 13 20 22 25 25 28 27 36 38 45 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 11 10 10 12 15 15 16 16 25 26 32 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 32 33 40 52 63 72 77 81 126 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 3 6 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts




Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A2 A2 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's A A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- A+ A+ naFitch A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




64

Colombia 209 COL 233 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 110: Colombia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/BBB-/BBB EODB Rank: 59 (53) - Middle Corruption Rank: 96 (90) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 37 (32) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.9 3.5 1.7 4.0 6.6 4.0 4.9 4.4 3.1 2.0 1.8 2.7 3.3 NGDP_RPCH



Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 431 480 505 545 620 664 710 757 799 855 913 969 1,030 NGDP


Population (mn) 43.9 44.5 45.0 45.5 46.0 46.6 47.1 47.7 48.2 48.7 49.3 49.8 50.4 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 143 161 165 195 235 270 301 345 406 442 477 525 577Lending/GDP (%) 33.3 33.5 32.8 35.8 37.9 40.6 42.3 45.5 50.8 51.6 52.3 54.2 56.1Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 20.1 20.8 20.5 19.1 21.0 20.8 21.0 21.1 20.3 20.4 20.0 21.0 21.1 NGSD_NGDP



Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.8 -0.3 -2.8 -3.3 -2.0 0.1 -0.9 -1.8 -3.4 -3.0 -3.1 -2.7 -1.9 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 1.8 1.9 -1.1 -1.6 -0.1 1.6 1.2 0.3 -0.7 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.8 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) -4.1 -2.6 -0.3 -1.3 1.1 1.0 -0.6 -9.2 -18.4 -12.9 -9.9 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -1.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -2.4 -6.3 -4.6 -3.2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -6.0 -6.5 -4.6 -8.7 -9.8 -11.4 -12.5 -19.8 -18.6 -12.1 -10.4 -8.5 -9.0 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -2.6 -2.0 -3.0 -2.9 -3.1 -3.3 -5.2 -6.4 -4.3 -3.4 -2.6 -2.6 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 8.9 10.6 8.0 6.4 14.6 15.0 16.2 16.3 12.1 13.6 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.3 4.3 3.4 2.2 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.9 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.4 1.7 1.4 -0.8 1.4 1.0 1.0 -0.9 -2.2 0.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 22 30 -12 21 42 7 -1 -7 -35 -12 15 na naImports (% YoY, value) 28 22 -17 24 34 7 1 8 -16 -18 4 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 20.8 23.5 24.7 27.8 31.4 36.4 42.8 46.4 46.1 46.0 46.7 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.6 7.1 9.0 8.2 6.9 7.5 8.6 8.7 10.2 12.5 12.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 45 47 54 65 76 79 92 101 110 120 124 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 22 19 23 23 23 21 24 27 38 43 40 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 157 126 165 165 136 132 156 185 310 383 344 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 5 6 4 8 11 10 11 12 12 11 13 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 18 15 12 20 19 17 19 22 33 36 35 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 25 24 16 28 34 28 25 26 26 25 27 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 9 8 9 10 10 15 10 15 14 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 4 3 4 3 3 4 3 4 5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 30 21 27 25 18 26 17 27 39 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 41 34 36 35 33 42 23 32 30 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts


Exchange rate (€) annual average 2,848 2,891 3,009 2,520 2,573 2,312 2,483 2,658 3,043 3,382 3,334 3,661 3,720

Exchange rate ($) annual average 2,078 1,965 2,158 1,899 1,848 1,798 1,869 2,001 2,742 3,055 2,951 2,953 2,967

Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba2 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BBB- naFitch BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




65

111Figure 111: Credit ratings COG Figure 112: Consensus forecasts Figure 115: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's Caa2 Jul-17 (B3) – CPI (%) na naS&P CCC+ Sep-17 (SD) = C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch CC Sep-17 (RD) na Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's Caa2 Jul-17 (B3) – FX vs $, YE na naS&P B- Mar-16 (B) = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch CCC Aug-16 (C) na Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 116: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$REPCON 6 06/30/29 350 88.35 6.00 4.4 7.6 661.3 EH117190



Geographic share Geographic shareChina 42% EU 32%Euro area 30% China 21%US 5% US 5%Japan 0% Japan 0%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 5% UK 4% Figure 118: CPI vs policy rateAustralia 2% India 4%Korea 1% Turkey 2%Gabon 1% South Africa 2%Taiwan 1% Thailand 1%

Product ProductFuels 79% Machinery and transport 41%Agricultural raw materials 8% Other machinery/transport 37%Other ores and metals 5% Other manufactures 25%Other manufactures 3% Food items 17%Machinery and transport 3% Chemicals 10%


Congo, Rep.

02468

10121416

Jan-

14Ap

r-14

Jul-1

4Oc

t-14

Jan-

15Ap

r-15

Jul-1

5Oc

t-15

Jan-

16Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6Oc

t-16

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Congo, Rep. 2029 $ bond US generic 10y YtM

90

100

110

120400

600

800

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

XAF vs $XAF vs EUR

Weaker

Stronger

n/a

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

Congo, Rep. CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



66

Figure 119: Congo, Rep. key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa2/CCC+/CC EODB Rank: 179 (177) - Weak Corruption Rank: 161 (159) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) -1.6 5.6 7.8 8.7 3.4 3.8 3.3 6.8 2.6 -2.8 -4.6 0.7 4.6Investment (% GDP) 35.0 22.4 27.9 22.2 25.7 31.0 33.0 48.0 47.2 46.3 23.7 19.2 18.7Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl bn) 3,564 4,557 4,410 6,083 6,982 6,972 6,927 6,960 5,056 4,616 4,946 5,540 5,714Nominal GDP ($bn) 7.4 10.2 9.4 12.3 14.8 13.7 14.0 14.1 8.6 7.8 8.5 10.5 10.9Population (mn) 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6GDP per capita ($) 2,192 2,937 2,624 3,364 3,951 3,556 3,561 3,493 2,067 1,836 1,958 2,350 2,391Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 91 167 223 389 529 670 788 987 1,116 1,162 1,110 na naLending/GDP (%) 2.6 3.7 5.1 6.4 7.6 9.6 11.4 14.2 22.1 25.2 22.4 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 6.7 30.9 13.3 29.6 39.7 48.8 46.8 49.3 -6.9 -27.8 11.1 22.2 23.6PricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.6 6.0 4.3 0.4 1.8 5.0 4.6 0.9 3.2 3.2 0.5 1.5 1.6CPI (year-end, % YoY) -3.9 11.8 -1.8 2.6 1.8 7.5 2.1 0.5 4.1 0.0 1.8 1.8 1.9Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 10.6 27.2 4.9 15.5 15.4 7.5 -5.0 -16.7 -27.2 -22.6 -7.2 3.9 5.0Primary government balance 13.4 30.1 6.3 16.4 15.5 7.5 -4.7 -16.5 -26.4 -20.0 -4.8 6.3 7.1Total public debt (% of GDP) 110.6 79.3 63.3 22.2 23.8 28.6 34.2 47.6 97.1 114.6 119.1 110.4 105.0External indicatorsExports ($bn) 6 6.0 9.3 7.6 6.7 13.3 7.5 10.0 6.2 3.2 2.6 3.4 na naImports ($bn) 3 3.9 3.5 4.4 4.4 7.0 7.3 8.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 2.0 na naTrade balance ($bn) 2.1 5.8 3.1 2.3 6.3 0.1 1.6 2.9 -0.2 -0.8 1.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 27.6 56.5 33.2 18.7 42.3 0.7 11.6 20.3 -2.9 -10.7 16.6 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2.1 0.9 -1.4 0.9 2.1 2.4 1.9 0.2 -4.6 -5.8 -1.1 0.3 0.5Current account balance (% of GDP) -28.3 8.5 -14.6 7.3 14.0 17.7 13.8 1.4 -54.1 -74.1 -12.7 3.0 4.8Net FDI ($bn) 1.5 2.0 1.3 0.9 2.2 2.2 2.9 5.5 1.5 2.0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 19.7 19.9 13.6 7.5 14.7 15.7 20.8 39.0 17.4 25.8 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -8.6 28.4 -1.0 14.9 28.7 33.5 34.6 40.4 -36.8 -48.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 1.3 55.7 -18.9 -11.7 99.0 -43.9 34.3 -37.9 -48.8 -17.8 28.8 na naImports (% YoY, value) 50.3 -9.9 25.6 -1.7 60.5 4.8 13.9 -60.0 2.4 0.5 -43.3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 2.2 3.9 3.8 4.4 5.6 5.5 5.2 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.4 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.6 13.1 10.3 12.2 9.7 9.1 7.5 17.7 7.8 2.5 2.3 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3.6 3.8 4.0 2.2 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.2 6.2 6.0 6.3 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 49.0 37.2 42.9 17.6 14.3 21.5 23.4 22.8 72.0 77.2 74.4 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 60.9 40.8 53.2 32.4 15.9 39.4 32.8 51.8 193.6 230.0 188.1 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.2 1.7 2.4 3.1 2.9 7.7 4.3 0.0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 4.2 3.2 4.0 4.1 1.9 4.3 4.3 6.6 20.7 12.8 0.1 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 11.5 7.7 8.0 6.1 4.6 5.8 8.3 8.4 29.6 46.9 0.6 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.9 1.2 2.2 2.2 2.6 1.9 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.0 2.3 3.0 4.9 7.1 5.7 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 5.0 4.3 4.7 3.2 2.4 3.0 5.8 6.2 10.2 21.0 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 5.3 4.8 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 12.5 38.6 5.2 35.9 39.7 21.3 1.6 13.8 -11.6 -15.3 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 657 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656


Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 B3 Caa2 Caa2 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - B+ B+ B B- CCC+ CCC+ naFitch - - - - - - B+ B+ B+ CCC CC CC naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Congo, Rep.



67

Croatia 210 HRV 960 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 120: Croatia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB+/BB+ EODB Rank: 51 (43) - Middle Corruption Rank: 57 (55) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 76 (73) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.2 2.1 -7.4 -1.4 -0.3 -2.2 -0.6 -0.1 2.3 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.6 NGDP_RPCH



Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 322 348 331 329 333 331 331 331 339 349 364 379 394 NGDP


Population (mn) 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 210 233 232 256 266 254 239 239 233 225 221 219 221Lending/GDP (%) 65.3 67.0 70.0 77.8 79.9 76.8 72.1 72.2 68.8 64.4 60.7 57.7 56.0Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.6 22.7 19.9 20.3 19.9 19.1 20.3 20.8 24.5 22.7 23.1 22.9 22.7 NGSD_NGDP

PricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.9 6.1 2.4 1.0 2.3 3.4 2.2 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 PCPIPCH

CPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.8 2.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 4.6 0.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 PCPIEPCH

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.4 -2.8 -6.0 -6.2 -7.8 -5.3 -5.3 -5.4 -3.3 -0.9 0.6 -0.5 -0.3 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance -1.0 -1.1 -4.1 -4.1 -5.1 -2.3 -2.2 -2.3 -0.1 2.0 3.3 2.0 2.1 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) -13.5 -16.6 -10.7 -8.2 -9.4 -8.5 -9.3 -9.0 -7.6 -8.1 -8.7 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -22.4 -23.6 -17.1 -13.8 -15.0 -15.0 -16.1 -15.6 -15.5 -15.8 -16.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -4.3 -6.2 -3.2 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.4 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.1 -8.8 -5.1 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.9 2.0 4.5 2.5 3.7 3.0 2.1 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 4.6 5.3 3.1 1.2 1.7 1.5 0.9 3.7 0.2 1.7 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 7.6 7.5 4.9 1.9 2.7 2.6 1.6 6.4 0.4 3.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 0.5 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 2.0 2.5 2.5 8.4 4.9 5.9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 19 14 -26 13 13 -7 2 9 -7 7 16 na naImports (% YoY, value) 20 19 -31 -6 13 -8 6 4 -10 6 13 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 13.7 13.0 14.9 14.1 14.5 14.8 17.8 15.4 15.0 14.2 18.8 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.3 5.1 8.4 8.5 7.7 8.5 9.7 8.1 8.7 7.8 9.1 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 50 56 66 63 60 60 63 56 49 44 48 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 83 80 105 105 96 106 109 98 100 86 88 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 401 400 628 531 450 483 499 407 382 318 300 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 5 7 6 6 7 4 5 3 4 4 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 9 9 10 10 8 8 6 8 7 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 38 46 56 52 49 35 36 25 31 26 31 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 34 51 39 43 45 29 26 23 27 25 26 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 4.5 9.0 9.0 9.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 12.6 3.4 2.0 3.8 1.6 3.2 2.9 5.9 -0.1 3.8 3.0 na na FM4_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Ba1 Ba1 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's BBB BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB BB BB BB BB+ naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB BB BB BB BB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




68

Czech Republic211 CZE 935 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 121: Czech Republic key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/AA-/A+ EODB Rank: 30 (27) - Strong Corruption Rank: 42 (47) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 91 (89) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.6 2.7 -4.8 2.3 1.8 -0.8 -0.5 2.7 5.3 2.6 4.3 3.5 3.0 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 LP





Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.7 -2.0 -5.5 -4.2 -2.7 -3.9 -1.2 -1.9 -0.6 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 0.0 -1.3 -4.5 -3.2 -1.7 -2.8 -0.2 -0.8 0.3 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.6 GGXONLB_NGDP


External indicatorsExports ($bn) 95 123 147 113 133 163 157 162 175 158 163 180 na na TXG_FOB_USD

Imports ($bn) 93 118 142 105 127 152 142 144 154 141 143 162 na na TMG_CIF_USD

Trade balance ($bn) 4.3 5.0 7.9 6.4 10.8 15.7 18.0 20.8 16.5 19.7 18.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 2.3 2.1 3.8 3.1 4.7 7.5 8.6 10.0 8.8 10.1 8.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -8.7 -4.4 -4.7 -7.4 -4.8 -3.2 -1.1 0.4 0.5 2.2 2.4 0.8 1.0 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.6 -1.9 -2.3 -3.6 -2.1 -1.6 -0.5 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.4 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 10.4 6.5 2.9 6.1 2.3 8.0 3.6 5.5 1.2 6.8 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.5 2.7 1.4 3.0 1.0 3.9 1.7 2.6 0.7 3.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 0.9 0.9 -0.9 -0.6 -1.1 2.3 1.2 2.8 0.9 4.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 29 20 -23 18 22 -4 3 8 -10 3 11 na naImports (% YoY, value) 27 20 -26 20 20 -7 2 7 -8 1 13 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 34.5 36.7 41.2 41.9 39.7 44.3 55.8 54.1 64.1 85.4 147.6 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.5 3.1 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.8 4.6 4.2 5.4 7.2 10.9 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 76 83 90 97 95 104 137 129 126 138 205 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 40 35 44 47 42 50 66 62 68 70 96 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 62 56 80 73 58 66 85 74 80 85 114 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 23 26 24 25 28 26 34 36 40 50 97 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 12 11 12 12 12 13 16 17 22 25 46 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 19 18 21 19 17 17 21 20 26 31 54 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 68 72 59 59 71 60 62 66 63 58 66 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts




Credit rating history LatestMoody's A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's A A A A AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- naFitch A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




69

122Figure 122: Credit ratings EGY Figure 123: Consensus forecasts Figure 126: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 4.7 4.9Moody's B3 Apr-15 (Caa1) = CPI (%) 15.0 11.8S&P B- Nov-13 (CCC+) + C/A bal. (% GDP) -4.0 -3.3Fitch B Dec-14 (B-) + Fiscal bal (%GDP) -8.7 -7.6Local currencyMoody's B3 Apr-15 (Caa1) = FX vs $, YE 17.0 naS&P B- Nov-13 (CCC+) + FX vs EUR, YE 21.4 naFitch B Dec-14 (B-) + Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 127: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$EGYPT 6 1/8 01/31/22 2,500 103.04 6.13 3.3 5.2 233.0 AM2736420EGYPT 5.577 02/21/23 1,250 100.76 5.58 4.1 5.4 246.6 AR2878379EGYPT 5 7/8 06/11/25 1,500 98.72 5.88 5.6 6.1 312.5 EK9601619EGYPT 4 3/4 04/16/26 1,000 99.97 4.75 6.5 4.8 400.0 AS0110302EGYPT 7 1/2 01/31/27 2,000 106.12 7.50 6.3 6.6 357.1 AM1560102EGYPT 6.588 02/21/28 1,250 99.22 6.59 7.0 6.7 368.3 AR2880565EGYPT 7 11/10/28 1,320 102.03 7.00 7.2 6.7 370.7 AL1601411EGYPT 5 5/8 04/16/30 1,000 99.25 5.63 8.5 5.7 465.1 AS1417482EGYPT 6 7/8 04/30/40 500 95.74 6.88 11.0 7.3 419.8 EI2334031EGYPT 8 1/2 01/31/47 2,500 107.55 8.50 11.0 7.8 477.9 AM2612894EGYPT 7.903 02/21/48 1,500 101.74 7.90 11.4 7.8 469.7 AR2881704LocalEGYGB 17.2 08/09/23 13,775 106.46 17.20 3.3 15.3 na EK9601619Figure 128: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)EGYGB 17.15 07/05/26 8,497 110.37 17.15 4.3 14.9 na EK9601619

EK9601619QZ1789192LW7423749


Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 22% EU 26%US 5% China 13%China 2% US 6%Japan 1% Japan 2%Other key countries Other key countriesSaudi Arabia 9% Turkey 5% Figure 129: CPI vs policy rateTurkey 6% Russia 4%UAE 5% Saudi Arabia 4%UK 4% Brazil 4%India 4% Korea 3%

Product ProductOther manufactures 24% Machinery and transport 27%Food items 18% Other machinery/transport 21%Fuels 18% Other manufactures 21%Chemicals 14% Food items 18%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 11% Fuels 14%


Egypt

12345678

Jan-

15

Apr-1

5

Jul-1

5

Oct-1

5

Jan-

16

Apr-1

6

Jul-1

6

Oct-1

6

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Egypt 2027 $ bond Egypt 2028 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM

80

100

120

140

160

180

2004

8

12

16

20

24

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

EGP vs $ EGP vs EUREgypt REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

Weaker

Stronger

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-

11Ap

r-11

Jul-1

1Oc

t-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

Jul-1

2Oc

t-12

Jan-

13Ap

r-13

Jul-1

3Oc

t-13

Jan-

14Ap

r-14

Jul-1

4Oc

t-14

Jan-

15Ap

r-15

Jul-1

5Oc

t-15

Jan-

16Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6Oc

t-16

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Egypt 3M yield index Egypt 5Y yield indexEgypt 10Y yield index

48

12162024283236

Aug-

10Fe

b-11

Aug-

11Fe

b-12

Aug-

12Fe

b-13

Aug-

13Fe

b-14

Aug-

14Fe

b-15

Aug-

15Fe

b-16

Aug-

16Fe

b-17

Aug-

17Fe

b-18

Egypt CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



70

Figure 130: Egypt key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/B EODB Rank: 128 (122) - Middle Corruption Rank: 117 (108) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 10 (14) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 7.1 7.2 4.7 5.1 1.8 2.2 3.3 2.9 4.4 4.3 4.2 5.0 6.0Private consumption (% YoY) 6.9 5.7 5.7 4.1 5.5 6.5 4.7 4.4 3.1 4.6 4.2 4.0 4.5Public consumption (% YoY) 0.2 2.1 5.6 4.5 3.8 3.1 2.2 8.4 7.0 3.9 2.5 -5.0 0.0Fixed capital formation (% ch YoY) 23.8 14.8 -10.2 7.7 -2.2 7.1 -7.8 1.4 9.8 19.6 7.7 8.5 15.0Unemployment rate year-end (%) 9.2 8.7 9.4 9.2 10.4 12.4 13.0 13.4 12.9 12.7 12.2 11.1 9.7Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 783 942 1,096 1,269 1,442 1,675 1,860 2,130 2,444 2,708 3,478 4,415 5,207Nominal GDP (US$bn) 137 171 199 230 248 279 288 303 333 332 235 249 295Population (m) 74 75 77 79 81 82 85 87 89 90 95 97 99GDP per capita (US$) 1,861 2,272 2,582 2,918 3,078 3,383 3,400 3,498 3,736 3,682 2,477 2,572 2,971Gross national savings (% of GDP) 29.2 29.0 19.7 19.4 14.6 12.4 12.0 12.8 10.6 9.1 8.8 11.4 12.0Claims on other sectors (lcl bn) 431 467 471 504 521 560 599 682 846 1,362 1,520 1,900 2,356Claims on other sectors (% of GDP) 55.0 49.6 43.0 39.8 36.1 33.4 32.2 32.0 34.6 50.3 43.7 43.0 45.2Deposits (lcl bn) 650 747 810 892 957 1,024 1,187 1,429 1,734 2,116 3,042 3,663 4,306Loan to deposit ratio 66.3 62.5 58.2 56.5 54.4 54.7 50.4 47.7 48.8 64.4 50.0 51.9 54.7PricesCPI (average % YoY) 11.0 11.7 16.2 11.7 11.1 8.7 6.9 10.1 10.9 10.2 23.3 21.4 11.6CPI (end-June % YoY) 8.6 20.2 10.0 10.7 11.8 7.3 9.8 8.2 11.4 14.0 29.8 11.4 11.9PPI (average % YoY) 17.7 2.5 5.0 15.9 7.5 0.7 6.5 -1.8 -1.4 25.8 23.6 13.1Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -4.9 -6.0 -6.2 -7.4 -9.6 -10.0 -12.9 -11.3 -10.9 -10.7 -11.4 -10.0 -7.6Consolidated primary balance -0.6 -2.4 -3.2 -3.2 -4.8 -4.9 -5.9 -4.2 -4.1 -3.0 -2.8 -1.1 0.5Total public debt 76.3 66.8 69.5 69.6 72.8 73.8 84.0 85.1 88.5 96.8 103.3 91.2 87.1External balanceExports (US$bn) 22.0 29.4 25.2 23.9 27.0 25.1 27.0 26.0 22.2 18.7 22.3 23.5 26.4Imports (US$bn) 38.3 52.8 50.3 49.0 54.1 59.2 57.7 60.2 61.3 56.3 57.3 56.0 61.6Trade balance (US$bn) -16.3 -23.4 -25.2 -25.1 -27.1 -34.1 -30.7 -34.2 -39.1 -37.6 -35.0 -32.5 -35.2Trade balance (% of GDP) -11.9 -13.7 -12.7 -10.9 -10.9 -12.2 -10.7 -11.3 -11.7 -11.3 -14.9 -13.0 -11.9Current account balance (US$bn) 2.3 0.9 -4.4 -4.3 -6.1 -10.1 -6.4 -2.8 -12.1 -19.8 -15.6 -11.6 -12.5Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.7 0.5 -2.2 -1.9 -2.5 -3.6 -2.2 -0.9 -3.7 -6.0 -6.6 -4.7 -4.2Net FDI inflows (US$bn) 11.1 13.2 8.1 6.8 2.2 4.0 3.8 4.2 6.4 6.9 7.9 9.4 10.0Net FDI (% of GDP) 8.1 7.7 4.1 2.9 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.1 3.4 3.8 3.4C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 9.7 8.3 1.9 1.1 -1.6 -2.2 -0.9 0.5 -1.7 -3.9 -3.3 -0.9 -0.8Exports (%YoY, value) 19 33 -14 -5 13 -7 8 -4 -15 -16 19 5 13Imports (%YoY, value) 26 38 -5 -3 10 9 -3 4 2 -8 2 -2 10FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 30.1 32.1 30.9 31.8 22.5 15.2 14.5 16.3 19.5 17.1 30.7 34.5 33.0Import cover (months of imports) 9.4 7.3 7.4 7.8 5.0 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.8 3.6 6.4 7.4 6.4Debt indicatorsGross external debt (US$bn) 30 34 32 34 35 34 43 46 48 56 79 87 86Gross external debt (% of GDP) 22 20 16 15 14 12 15 15 14 17 34 35 29Gross external debt (% of exports) 136 115 125 141 129 137 160 177 216 298 354 370 325Total debt service (US$bn) na na na 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6Total debt service (% of GDP) na na na 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2Total debt service (% of exports) na na na 11 10 10 10 11 13 19 17 20 21Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (%YoY average) 18.3 15.7 8.4 10.4 10.0 8.4 18.4 17.0 16.4 18.6 39.3 20.4 17.6Policy rate (%) end-Jun 8.8 10.5 9.0 8.3 8.3 9.3 9.8 8.3 8.8 11.8 18.8 15.8 13.83-month interest rate (calendar avg %) na na 11.3 9.9 10.2 13.1 13.3 10.9 11.4 11.8 17.5 18.0 15.0Exchange rate (EGP/€) end-Jun 7.71 8.36 7.82 7.14 8.66 7.67 9.13 9.72 8.51 9.84 20.67 21.82 22.96Exchange rate (EGP/€) annual average 7.47 8.12 7.57 7.67 7.95 8.04 8.37 9.63 8.85 9.05 16.71 21.31 22.48Exchange rate (EGP/US$) end-Jun 5.69 5.33 5.59 5.68 5.97 6.06 7.02 7.15 7.63 8.89 18.12 17.60 17.80Exchange rate (EGP/US$) annual average 5.72 5.51 5.52 5.52 5.82 6.01 6.46 7.02 7.35 8.15 14.81 17.70 17.67Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 B2 B2 Caa1 Caa1 B3 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ B+ B- B- B- B- B- B- B- naFitch BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB- B+ B- B B B B B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts from Renaissance Capital Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

Egypt



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Estonia 213 EST 939 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 131: Estonia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/AA-/A+ EODB Rank: 12 (12) - Strong Corruption Rank: 21 (22) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 93 (92) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.7 -5.4 -14.7 2.3 7.6 4.3 1.9 2.9 1.7 2.1 4.9 3.9 3.2 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 LP




CPI (year-end, % YoY) 9.7 7.5 -1.9 5.4 4.1 3.6 2.0 0.1 -0.2 2.4 3.8 1.8 2.5 PCPIEPCH

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 2.7 -2.7 -2.2 0.2 1.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 2.4 -3.1 -2.5 0.0 1.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.6 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) -4.7 -3.6 -1.1 -0.7 -0.7 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 -2.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -21.0 -14.8 -5.5 -3.5 -3.2 -8.7 -8.5 -8.6 -7.5 -7.6 -8.3 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -3.3 -2.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) -15.0 -8.7 2.5 1.8 1.3 -1.9 0.5 0.3 2.0 1.9 3.2 2.0 0.7 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 10.4 7.5 9.3 7.7 4.3 6.8 2.2 1.9 0.9 3.7 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -4.6 -1.1 11.9 9.5 5.7 4.8 2.7 2.2 2.9 5.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 14 13 -27 28 44 -4 1 -2 -20 3 10 na naImports (% YoY, value) 17 2 -37 21 42 4 2 -1 -21 3 11 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 3.3 4.0 4.0 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 na naImport cover (months of imports) 2.5 3.0 4.7 2.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 26 26 25 22 22 24 24 23 21 20 23 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 115 109 126 113 93 103 96 87 93 86 89 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 233 212 275 190 129 147 148 143 163 153 159 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 8 10 9 8 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 35 40 44 41 42 48 44 40 46 40 35 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 70 78 96 70 58 69 68 65 82 71 62 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 236 244 220 315 4957 3870 3657 2449 2578 2719 2680 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 4.0 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 11.7 5.9 2.0 3.9 na na 6.8 9.9 11.6 9.5 6.2 na na FM2_XDC


Credit rating history LatestMoody's A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's A A A- A AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- naFitch A A- BBB+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




72

Ethiopia 214 ETH 644 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 132: Ethiopia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/B/B EODB Rank: 161 (159) - Weak Corruption Rank: 107 (108) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 17 (19) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 11.8 11.2 10.0 10.6 11.4 8.7 9.9 10.3 10.4 8.0 10.9 8.5 8.3 NGDP_RPCH



Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 173 250 338 386 515 747 867 1,061 1,298 1,541 1,807 2,192 2,607 NGDP


Population (mn) 79.1 80.3 81.6 82.9 84.2 85.6 87.0 88.3 89.8 91.2 92.7 94.1 95.6 LP

GDP per capita ($) 249 334 398 361 379 504 548 628 721 802 873 910 938 NGDPDPC

Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naLending/GDP (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 21.9 20.8 15.4 24.5 33.1 31.2 28.1 30.7 32.4 32.7 32.1 31.2 32.3 NGSD_NGDP








Trade balance ($bn) -4.7 -6.3 -7.4 -7.5 -7.5 -10.5 -11.0 -14.0 -15.8 -15.9 -15.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -23.9 -23.3 -22.9 -25.1 -23.3 -24.3 -23.0 -25.3 -24.5 -21.7 -18.7 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.8 -1.8 -2.2 -0.4 -0.8 -3.0 -2.8 -3.6 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6 -5.6 -5.7 BCA


Net FDI ($bn) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 1.3 2.1 2.2 3.2 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.0 0.6 2.7 3.8 3.4 4.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3.1 -6.3 -6.1 -0.5 -0.5 -6.3 -3.2 -2.6 -6.8 -4.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 10 23 1 41 12 18 26 17 5 -8 2 na naImports (% YoY, value) 18 31 15 8 2 35 9 25 11 -2 -3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.3 0.9 1.8 2.2 2.8 2.3 2.4 3.5 3.8 3.0 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 2.6 1.3 2.4 2.8 3.4 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.3 1.8 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 5 7 8 11 12 17 20 22 25 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 13 11 17 24 26 24 26 31 31 31 31 na na FM2_XDC

Gross external debt YE (% of exports) 206 185 345 321 342 361 338 397 447 536 583 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 11 7 7 8 14 15 18 18 23 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 10 13 6 8 12 19 28 22 27 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na na na na na na na naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 12.1 13.7 14.5 17.1 22.4 22.3 24.2 25.4 22.3 23.3 25.2 31.7 36.4


Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - B B B B B naFitch - - - - - - - B B B B B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




73

133Figure 133: Credit ratings GAB Figure 134: Consensus forecasts Figure 137: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's B3 Jul-17 (B1) – CPI (%) na naS&P NR Apr-16 (B) na C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch B Oct-17 (B+) – Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's B3 Jul-17 (B1) – FX vs $, YE na naS&P NR Apr-16 (B) na FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B Oct-17 (B+) – Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 138: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$GABON 6 ⅜ 12/12/24 1,500 98.29 6.38 4.5 6.7 383.9 EJ9753546GABON 6.95 06/16/25 700 100.42 6.95 5.4 6.9 391.2 EK9687071



Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 24% EU 34%China 16% China 21%US 5% US 7%Japan 4% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesTrinidad and Tobago 7% Benin 5% Figure 140: CPI vs policy rateAustralia 7% Turkey 2%Korea 5% Thailand 2%Malaysia 3% Republic of Congo 2%India 2% UK 2%

Product ProductFuels 79% Machinery and transport 41%Agricultural raw materials 8% Other machinery/transport 37%Other ores and metals 5% Other manufactures 25%Other manufactures 3% Food items 17%Machinery and transport 3% Chemicals 10%


Gabon

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Gabon 2024 $ bond Gabon 2025 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM

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XAF vs $ XAF vs EURGabon REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

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Gabon 3M yield index Gabon 12M yield index

-4-202468

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Gabon CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



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Figure 141: Gabon key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/NR/B EODB Rank: 167 (164) - Weak Corruption Rank: 117 (101) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.3 1.7 -2.3 6.3 7.1 5.3 5.5 4.4 3.9 2.1 0.8 2.7 3.7Investment (% GDP) 26.3 22.8 29.1 26.1 23.8 29.1 33.3 35.9 34.8 34.2 31.5 30.9 31.8Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl bn) 5,962 6,945 5,738 7,111 8,582 8,766 8,691 8,988 8,503 8,311 8,834 9,439 9,740Nominal GDP ($bn) 12.5 15.6 12.2 14.4 18.2 17.2 17.6 18.2 14.4 14.0 15.2 17.5 18.1Population (mn) 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0GDP per capita ($) 8,652 10,426 7,854 8,934 10,891 9,903 9,761 9,956 7,754 7,453 7,972 9,030 9,234Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 628 622 602 624 851 1,067 1,429 1,385 1,347 1,292 948 na naLending/GDP (%) 10.5 9.0 10.5 8.8 9.9 12.2 16.4 15.4 15.8 15.5 10.7 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 39.9 44.4 33.5 41.0 47.8 47.0 40.5 43.5 29.2 24.1 26.7 29.3 29.9PricesCPI (average % YoY) -1.0 5.3 1.9 1.4 1.3 2.7 0.5 4.5 -0.1 2.1 3.0 2.8 2.5CPI (year-end, % YoY) -0.2 5.6 0.9 0.7 2.3 2.2 3.3 1.7 -1.2 4.1 3.0 2.8 2.5Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 8.1 11.0 6.8 2.7 1.7 6.2 -3.1 6.0 -1.1 -4.7 -1.8 0.8 1.0Primary government balance 10.1 12.6 8.2 4.1 2.8 7.3 -1.5 7.6 0.9 -2.4 1.0 3.2 3.6Total public debt (% of GDP) 39.2 20.1 26.0 21.3 21.4 21.4 31.1 34.1 44.7 64.2 61.1 59.3 59.3External indicatorsExports ($bn) 6 6.3 9.6 5.4 8.5 13.3 8.3 7.1 6.6 4.7 3.5 3.9 na naImports ($bn) 2 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.8 3.9 4.7 4.0 2.9 2.4 2.3 na naTrade balance ($bn) 4.2 7.0 2.9 5.6 9.5 4.4 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.1 1.6 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 33.7 44.9 23.5 39.2 52.0 25.7 13.5 14.1 12.0 7.7 10.3 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 1.7 3.4 0.5 2.1 4.4 3.1 1.3 1.4 -0.8 -1.4 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3Current account balance (% of GDP) 13.7 21.6 4.4 14.9 24.0 17.9 7.3 7.6 -5.6 -10.1 -4.8 -1.5 -1.9Net FDI ($bn) 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.2 5.0 4.7 3.5 3.8 4.8 4.4 5.6 4.3 5.0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 15.8 26.6 9.1 18.4 27.8 22.7 11.7 13.1 -1.2 -5.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 5 52 -44 59 56 -38 -15 -7 -29 -25 12 na naImports (% YoY, value) 22 21 -2 15 33 2 21 -15 -26 -18 -3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.2 2.4 3.0 2.5 1.9 0.8 1.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.0 9.0 9.6 7.2 6.8 7.3 7.7 7.4 7.6 3.9 5.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 4 4 4 4 5 5 8 8 10 10 8 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 35 23 31 31 29 30 46 47 67 71 55 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 69 37 71 53 39 62 115 129 208 286 216 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 4 5 5 4 4 6 4 7 12 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 0 6 12 8 5 8 14 12 22 48 0 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 0 31 33 38 34 27 34 32 56 212 0 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 7 17 3 3 2 2 6 2 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 14 28 8 5 3 5 16 6 8 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 70 137 20 24 18 17 38 16 21 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 6.3 10.6 3.4 19.7 28.7 10.2 11.1 0.0 -0.2 -4.9 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 657 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 670 675


Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - Ba3 Ba3 B1 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ NR NR NR naFitch BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B B naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Gabon



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142Figure 142: Credit ratings GEO Figure 143: Consensus forecasts Figure 146: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date Outlook (Prior) 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 4.3 4.5Moody's Ba2 Sep-17 = Ba3 CPI (%) 3.1 naS&P BB- Nov-11 = (B+) C/A bal. (% GDP) -9.4 -8.1Fitch BB- Dec-11 + (B+) Fiscal bal (%GDP) -3.0 -3.0Local currencyMoody's Ba2 Sep-17 = Ba3 FX vs $, YE na naS&P BB- Nov-11 = (B+) FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch BB- Dec-11 + (B+) Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 147: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$GEORG 6 ⅞ 04/12/21 500 107.85 6.88 2.7 4.0 120.0 EI6390690Corporate$Georgia O&G 6 ¾ 04/26/21 250 103.22 6.75 2.7 5.6 273.7 JK858046GRAIL 7 ¾ 07/11/22 500 107.93 7.75 3.5 5.6 271.9 EJ258411BGEOLN 6 07/26/23 350 100.95 6.00 4.4 5.8 287.3 LW951651GEOCAP 6 ⅛ 03/09/24 300 95.53 6.13 4.8 7.1 414.4 AR6075667lclGEBGG 11 06/01/20 500 100.00 11.00 1.7 10.4 na AN7382376



Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 15% EU 24%China 6% China 8%US 5% US 3%Japan 0% Japan 3%Other key countries Other key countriesAzerbaijan 11% Turkey 17% Figure 149: CPI vs policy rateBulgaria 10% Russia 8%Turkey 8% Azerbaijan 7%Armenia 8% Ukraine 6%Russia 7% UAE 3%

Product ProductFood items 33% Machinery and transport 29%Other manufactures 19% Other manufactures 26%Other ores and metals 17% Other machinery/transport 22%Beverages and Tobacco 15% Fuels 14%Machinery and transport 11% Food items 14%


Georgia

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Georgia 2021 $ bond US generic 10y YtM

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l-10

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l-11

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l-12

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l-13

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18

GEL vs $ GEL vs EURGeorgia REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

Weaker

Stronger

0

5

10

15

20

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11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

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13Ju

l-13

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14Ju

l-14

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l-15

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18

Georgia 12M auc. Yield Georgia 2y auc. YieldGeorgia 5y auc. Yield Georgia 10y auc. Yield

-5

0

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20

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Georgia CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



76

Figure 150: Georgia key economic indicators (Renaissance Capital forecasts)Ratings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB-/BB- EODB Rank: 9 (16) - Strong Corruption Rank: 46 (44) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 71 (70) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 12.3 2.3 -3.8 6.3 7.2 6.1 3.3 4.8 2.9 2.8 5.0 4.4 4.5Industrial production (%YoY) 7.4 -7.6 -11.6 17.9 23.5 7.2 2.7 3.8 1.4 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.1Unemployment rate year-end (%) 13.3 16.5 16.9 16.3 15.1 15.0 14.6 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.2Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 17.0 19.1 18.0 20.7 24.3 26.1 26.8 29.0 31.8 34.0 38.0 41.1 44.4Nominal GDP ($bn) 12.4 12.8 10.8 11.6 14.4 15.8 16.1 16.5 14.0 14.3 15.1 16.1 16.9Population (mn) 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7GDP per capita ($) 2,316 2,921 2,456 2,620 3,217 4,125 3,600 4,412 3,781 3,888 4,124 4,389 4,614Gross national saving (% of GDP) 14.4 5.1 2.6 11.6 13.6 18.1 19.5 19.1 20.1 19.1 21.8 23.9 25.3Loans to non-banking sector (lcl bn) 4.4 5.8 5.0 6.0 7.5 8.4 10.0 12.5 15.2 18.1 20.5 22.5 24.7Lending/GDP (%) 25.9 30.4 27.9 29.1 30.8 32.1 37.3 43.2 47.8 53.2 53.8 54.8 55.8Deposits (lcl bn) 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.8 7.4 8.2 10.3 12.4 15.5 18.3 21.1 22.3 23.9Loan to deposit ratio (%) 125.3 151.0 120.4 103.8 102.0 102.4 97.1 100.8 98.1 98.9 97.0 100.7 103.5PricesCPI (average %YoY) 9.2 10.0 1.7 7.1 8.5 -0.9 -0.6 3.1 4.0 2.1 5.9 3.7 3.5CPI (end-year %YoY) 11.0 5.5 3.0 11.2 2.0 -1.4 2.4 2.0 4.9 1.7 6.0 3.6 3.5Nominal wages, GEL 368 535 557 598 636 712 773 818 900 940 980 1,040 1,090Wage Rate (%YoY nominal) 32.4 45.4 4.1 7.3 6.4 11.9 8.6 5.8 10.0 4.4 4.3 6.1 4.8Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Budget deficit (standard definition) -4.8 -6.5 -9.2 -6.7 -3.6 -2.8 -2.4 -3.1 -3.6 -3.9 -3.5 -3.3 -3.0Budget Deficit (Total Balance) GFS-2001 -4.5 -0.9 -0.6 -1.1 -2.1 -1.1 -1.1 -2.1 -1.7 -1.4Total public debt (central govt) 25.5 31.2 41.0 42.0 37.0 35.0 36.7 35.6 41.4 44.6 42.1 45.0 48.0External balanceExports ($bn) 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.1 2.9 3.6 4.0 4.4Imports ($bn) 5.0 6.3 4.3 5.1 6.7 7.7 7.7 8.3 7.0 6.8 7.5 8.4 9.0Trade balance (US$mn) -2.9 -3.8 -2.4 -2.6 -3.5 -4.2 -3.5 -4.3 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -4.4 -4.7Trade balance (% of GDP) -23.4 -30.0 -22.3 -22.3 -24.2 -26.6 -21.6 -26.1 -27.9 -27.3 -25.6 -27.2 -27.6Current account balance ($bn) -2.1 -3.1 -1.2 -1.3 -2.0 -1.9 -1.0 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6Current account balance (% of GDP) -17.1 -24.5 -11.5 -11.4 -13.6 -11.7 -5.9 -10.3 -12.9 -12.9 -8.7 -9.9 -9.5Net FDI ($bn) 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7Net FDI (% of GDP) 13.5 11.1 6.3 5.8 6.2 3.9 5.1 7.9 9.3 9.8 10.6 9.9 10.1C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3.6 -13.4 -5.2 -5.5 -7.3 -7.8 -0.7 -2.4 -3.6 -3.1 1.8 0.0 0.6Exports (%YoY, value) 25.3 16.3 -22.0 30.0 32.2 7.6 21.2 -5.8 -22.5 -6.5 24.1 11.0 10.0Imports (%YoY, value) 35.2 25.7 -31.5 17.7 33.6 14.4 0.3 7.3 -15.7 -2.9 10.0 12.0 8.0FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2Import cover (months of imports) 3.3 2.8 5.9 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 3.9 4.3 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.2Debt indicatorsGross external debt (US$mn) 5.8 7.7 8.8 10.1 11.6 13.2 13.2 13.8 15.1 15.8 16.9 17.5 18.1Gross external debt (% of GDP) 46.7 59.9 82.0 86.7 80.0 83.4 81.8 83.9 108.0 110.5 111.6 108.6 107.3Gross external debt (% of exports) 277 316 466 410 355 377 311 345 487 545 469 438 412Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (%YoY) year-end 53.6 -11.7 16.6 27.0 27.8 7.6 33.2 10.1 5.5 12.9 29.4 14.0 11.0Key policy rate (%) year-end 8.0 5.0 7.5 6.8 5.3 3.8 4.0 8.0 6.5 7.3 6.8 6.3Exchange rate (GEL/€) year-end 2.33 2.36 2.42 2.35 2.16 2.18 2.40 2.27 2.61 2.80 3.09 3.34 3.58Exchange rate (GEL/€) annual average 2.29 2.19 2.33 2.36 2.35 2.12 2.21 2.35 2.52 2.61 2.83 3.16 3.42Exchange rate (GEL/US$) year-end 1.59 1.67 1.69 1.77 1.67 1.65 1.74 1.87 2.40 2.66 2.58 2.65 2.75Exchange rate (GEL/US$) annual average 1.37 1.49 1.67 1.78 1.69 1.65 1.66 1.76 2.28 2.37 2.51 2.55 2.63Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba2 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's B+ B B B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- naFitch BB- B+ B+ B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- na

Source: IMF, UNCTAD, National bank of Georgia, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates

Georgia



77

151Figure 151: Credit ratings GHA Figure 152: Consensus forecasts Figure 155: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 7.1 6.1Moody's B3 Mar-15 (B2) = CPI, avg. (%) 10.7 9.2S&P B- Oct-14 (B) + C/A bal. (% GDP) -4.0 -4.0Fitch B Oct-13 (B+) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -5.2 -4.5Local currencyMoody's B3 Mar-15 (B2) = FX vs $, YE 4.7 5.8S&P B- Oct-14 (B) + FX vs EUR, YE 5.9 7.5Fitch B Oct-13 (B+) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus

Figure 153: Selected benchmark issuesAmt out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.

Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 156: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$GHANA 9 ¼ 09/15/22 750 114.00 9.25 2.9 5.6 143.8 QZ5112508GHANA 7 ⅞ 08/07/23 1,000 109.02 7.88 4.3 5.9 292.5 EJ7706660GHANA 8 ⅛ 01/18/26 1,000 107.40 8.13 5.1 6.9 371.9 EK4901865GHANA 10 ¾ 10/14/30 1,000 130.15 10.75 7.2 7.1 381.4 QJ1388462LocalGHGB 24 ½ 10/22/18 995 103.92 24.50 0.4 16.0 na QJ3120798GHGB 17 ½ 08/17/20 102 102.66 17.50 1.8 16.0 na EJ8082558GHGB 24 ¾ 07/19/21 1,384 121.21 24.75 2.2 16.0 na LW9892610



Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 19% China 33%China 10% EU 16%US 3% US 5%Japan 1% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 27% Nigeria 14% Figure 158: CPI vs policy rateSwitzerland 12% India 4%UK 3% Ivory Coast 3%Malaysia 2% UK 3%Turkey 1% South Africa 2%

Product ProductGemstones and non-monetary gold41% Machinery and transport 39%Food items 31% Other machinery/transport 33%Fuels 14% Other manufactures 24%Other ores and metals 4% Food items 16%Agricultural raw materials 3% Chemicals 12%


Ghana

13579

11131517

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Ghana 2023 $ bond Ghana 2026 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM

50607080901001101201

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GHS vs $ GHS vs EURGhana REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

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Ghana 3M (auction) yield Ghana 1y (auction) yieldGhana 5y (auction) yield

810121416182022242628

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Ghana CPI, % YoY Policy rate (%)



78

Figure 159: Ghana key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/B EODB Rank: 120 (108) - Middle Corruption Rank: 81 (70) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 30 (33) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.5 8.4 3.5 7.9 14.0 9.3 7.3 4.0 3.8 3.7 8.5 5.7 6.0Investment (% YoY) 6.1 15.1 4.5 5.6 43.5 11.0 6.6 0.8 1.0 -2.0 3.0 2.5 2.5Industry, value added (% YoY) 20.1 21.5 20.7 25.7 12.8 17.0 13.3 18.8 16.7 14.5 13.7 14.7 15.8Oil production (mn b/d) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2Nominal GDP (GHSbn) 23.2 30.2 36.6 46.0 59.8 75.0 93.4 113 137 167 205 242 281Nominal GDP (EURbn) 18.2 19.0 18.4 24.3 27.7 31.5 33.6 28.0 32.9 38.6 41.7 43.0 45.4Nominal GDP ($bn) 24.9 27.9 25.6 32.2 38.6 40.5 44.7 36.9 36.3 42.4 46.5 51.6 56.0Population (mn) 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.6 26.2 26.9 27.6 28.3 29.0 29.7GDP per capita ($) 1,133 1,240 1,108 1,359 1,588 1,626 1,748 1,408 1,348 1,539 1,644 1,780 1,886Gross national saving (% of GDP) 12.1 9.9 16.0 17.3 3.8 5.3 1.3 9.3 9.0 7.8 7.9 9.2 10.7Bank credit to private sector (GHSbn) 4.2 6.0 7.1 8.1 9.8 13.1 17.0 24.2 30.3 35.0 38.9 43.9 50.5Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 18.0 19.9 19.3 17.5 16.5 17.5 18.2 21.3 22.1 20.9 19.0 18.2 17.9Loan to deposit ratio (%) 87.4 89.0 81.3 69.6 62.5 69.1 71.8 69.0 70.0 69.0 71.0 72.0 72.0PricesCPI (average % YoY) 10.7 16.5 19.3 10.8 8.7 9.6 10.7 15.5 17.2 17.5 12.3 10.4 9.9CPI (year-end % YoY) 12.7 18.1 16.0 8.6 8.6 8.8 13.5 17.0 17.7 15.4 11.8 10.5 9.3PPI (average % YoY) 32.4 15.4 18.8 18.7 17.2 9.4 35.8 13.4 11.6 10.0 8.0 7.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)General government budget balance -7.2 -8.0 -7.2 -10.1 -7.5 -11.3 -12.0 -10.9 -5.2 -8.9 -5.8 -4.5 -4.5Total public debt 31.0 33.5 36.1 46.3 42.6 47.9 57.2 70.2 72.2 73.4 70.5 66.1 62.8External balanceExports ($bn) 4.2 5.3 5.9 7.9 12.8 13.6 13.8 12.7 10.4 11.1 13.8 14.9 15.9Imports ($bn) 8.1 10.3 8.0 10.9 16.0 16.7 17.6 14.6 13.5 13.0 12.6 13.0 14.2Trade balance ($bn) -3.9 -5.0 -2.1 -3.0 -3.2 -3.2 -3.8 -1.9 -3.1 -1.9 1.2 1.9 1.8Trade balance (% of GDP) -15.6 -17.9 -8.4 -9.4 -8.2 -7.9 -8.6 -5.1 -8.6 -4.5 2.5 3.7 3.2Current account balance ($bn) -2.0 -3.1 -1.7 -2.8 -3.7 -3.9 -5.7 -3.7 -2.8 -2.7 -2.1 -2.4 -2.4Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.9 -11.0 -6.6 -8.6 -9.5 -9.6 -12.8 -10.0 -7.8 -6.5 -4.5 -4.6 -4.3Net FDI ($bn) 1.0 2.7 2.9 2.5 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.4 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.5Net FDI (% of GDP) 3.9 9.7 11.3 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.2 9.1 7.7 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.2Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -4.0 -1.3 4.7 -0.8 -1.2 -1.9 -5.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 2.0 2.0 2.0Exports (% YoY, value) 12 26 12 34 62 6 1 -8 -18 7 24 8 7Imports (% YoY, value) 19 27 -22 36 46 5 5 -17 -7 -4 -3 3 9Foreign exchange reserves (ex. gold, $bn) 2.8 2.0 3.2 4.2 5.4 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.3Import cover (months of imports) 4.2 2.3 4.8 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.8 4.5 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.3Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 5 6 7 9 11 14 16 18 19 22 24 25 26Gross external debt (% of GDP) 21 20 28 29 29 34 36 48 53 53 52 49 46Gross external debt (% of exports) 123 108 122 118 88 102 118 139 184 202 176 171 160Total debt service ($bn) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 2Total debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4Total debt service (% of exports) 10 12 11 8 6 9 10 13 17 19 18 17 17Interest & exchange ratesPolicy rate, % year-end 13.5 17.0 18.0 13.5 12.5 15.0 16.0 21.0 26.0 25.5 20.0 18.0 16.0Broad money supply (% YoY) 36.3 40.2 26.9 30.4 40.0 25.0 22.0 20.0 15.0 17.0 19.0 21.0 20.0Credit to the private sector (% YoY) 64.0 44.0 17.3 14.3 22.1 33.5 29.2 42.4 25.2 15.6 11.0 13.0 15.03-month interest rate (T-bill year-end %) 9.8 17.8 25.2 13.8 10.3 18.7 21.9 23.9 23.5 21.6 15.0 11.0 11.0Exchange rate (GHS/EUR) year-end 1.41 1.77 2.05 1.99 2.13 2.51 3.28 3.90 4.13 4.45 5.34 5.90 6.51Exchange rate (GHS/EUR) annual average 1.27 1.59 1.99 1.90 2.16 2.38 2.78 4.05 4.17 4.34 4.91 5.62 6.21Exchange rate (GHS/$) year-end 0.97 1.27 1.43 1.49 1.64 1.90 2.38 3.22 3.81 4.24 4.52 4.84 5.21Exchange rate (GHS/$) annual average 0.93 1.08 1.43 1.43 1.55 1.85 2.09 3.07 3.78 3.94 4.40 4.68 5.03Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - B1 B2 B3 B3 B3 na naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B B B B B- B- B- B- na naFitch B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B B B B B na na

Source: IMF, UNCTAD, Bank of Ghana, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates

Ghana



79

Greece 218 GRC 174 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 160: Greece key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B/B EODB Rank: 67 (61) - Middle Corruption Rank: 59 (69) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 56 (55) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.3 -0.3 -4.3 -5.5 -9.1 -7.3 -3.2 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 1.4 2.0 1.8 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 LP



PricesCPI (average % YoY) 3.0 4.2 1.3 4.7 3.1 1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.1 0.0 1.1 0.7 1.1 PCPIPCH

CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.9 2.2 2.5 5.2 2.2 0.3 -1.8 -2.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9 1.2 PCPIEPCH

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -6.7 -10.2 -15.1 -11.2 -10.3 -6.6 -3.6 -4.0 -2.9 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.0 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance -2.2 -5.4 -10.1 -5.3 -3.0 -1.5 0.4 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.7 2.9 3.5 GGXONLB_NGDP






Net FDI ($bn) 2.1 4.5 2.4 0.3 1.1 1.7 2.8 1.7 -0.3 3.1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.7 -0.1 1.6 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -14.5 -13.8 -11.6 -11.3 -9.6 -3.1 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4 0.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 23 18 -20 12 20 4 2 -1 -20 -2 16 na naImports (% YoY, value) 26 14 -23 -7 -2 -6 -2 3 -25 1 16 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 0.6 0.3 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.1 na naImport cover (months of imports) 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 454 505 589 545 480 578 575 515 480 455 486 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 142 142 178 182 167 235 240 217 246 236 242 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 1,711 1,614 2,341 1,932 1,413 1,631 1,588 1,431 1,673 1,617 1,489 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 100 156 193 244 235 216 159 157 169 147 126 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 31.5 43.7 58.2 81.5 81.5 87.9 66.5 66.1 86.5 76.5 63.0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 378 498 766 866 692 610 440 436 589 524 388 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 15,911 45,272 12,387 18,659 18,811 17,019 11,234 8,360 7,728 5,472 4,084 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 4.0 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 13.6 14.3 3.9 -10.8 -14.5 na 2.5 -0.3 -17.8 2.2 na na na Over9


Credit rating history LatestMoody's A1 A1 A2 Ba1 Ca C Caa3 Caa1 Caa3 Caa3 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's A A BBB+ BB+ CC B- B- B CCC+ B- AA- AA- naFitch A A BBB+ BBB- CCC CCC B- B CCC CCC A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Source: IMF, UNCTAD, Bank of Ghana, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



80

Hungary 219 HUN 944 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 161: Hungary key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BBB-/BBB- EODB Rank: 48 (41) - Strong Corruption Rank: 66 (57) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 67 (63) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 0.4 0.9 -6.6 0.7 1.7 -1.6 2.1 4.2 3.4 2.2 4.0 3.8 3.0 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 LP



PricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.0 6.0 4.2 4.9 3.9 5.7 1.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 2.4 2.7 3.3 PCPIPCH

CPI (year-end, % YoY) 7.4 3.5 5.6 4.7 4.1 5.0 0.4 -0.9 0.9 1.8 2.1 3.2 3.2 PCPIEPCH


Primary government balance -1.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) -0.1 -0.5 5.3 7.3 9.9 8.4 7.4 5.7 6.6 8.0 6.2 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -0.1 -0.3 4.1 5.6 7.0 6.6 5.5 4.1 5.3 6.2 4.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -9.9 -11.2 -1.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 5.2 2.1 4.3 7.7 5.4 4.1 4.2 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.1 -7.1 -0.8 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.8 1.5 3.5 6.0 3.6 2.5 2.4 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 4.0 6.3 2.0 2.2 6.3 14.4 3.4 7.5 1.3 -5.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.8 4.0 1.5 1.7 4.5 11.3 2.5 5.3 1.0 -4.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -4.2 -3.1 0.7 2.0 5.2 13.0 6.3 6.8 4.6 1.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 27 14 -24 15 18 -8 4 3 -11 3 11 na naImports (% YoY, value) 22 14 -29 13 16 -7 5 5 -12 2 14 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 24.0 33.8 44.1 44.8 48.7 44.5 46.4 41.9 33.0 25.8 27.9 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.0 3.7 6.8 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.6 4.8 4.3 3.3 3.1 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 177 224 243 210 213 207 203 186 159 147 153 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 127 142 186 160 151 162 150 133 129 114 100 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 186 206 292 220 189 200 189 168 161 144 134 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 33 28 29 33 32 23 23 20 16 14 14 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 24 18 22 25 22 18 17 14 13 11 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 35 26 35 34 28 22 21 18 16 14 12 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 139 83 65 73 65 52 50 47 48 54 49 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 7.5 10.0 6.3 5.8 7.0 5.8 3.0 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 11.1 8.6 3.6 2.9 5.9 -3.3 6.5 4.7 6.3 6.2 8.3 na na FM3_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A3 Baa1 Baa3 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BBB+ BBB BBB- BBB- BB+ BB BB BB BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BBB+ BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




81

India 220 IND 534 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 162: India key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/BBB-u/BBB- EODB Rank: 100 (130) - Middle Corruption Rank: 81 (79) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 16 (16) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 9.8 3.9 8.5 10.3 6.6 5.5 6.4 7.4 8.2 7.1 6.7 7.4 7.8 NGDP_RPCH



Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 50 56 65 78 87 99 112 125 138 153 168 187 211 NGDP

Nominal GDP ($bn) 1,239 1,224 1,365 1,708 1,823 1,828 1,857 2,039 2,102 2,274 2,611 2,848 3,155 NGDPD

Population (mn) 1,150 1,167 1,184 1,201 1,217 1,234 1,250 1,266 1,283 1,300 1,317 1,334 1,352 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 22.4 27.3 30.6 38.6 44.8 51.6 58.8 64.7 71.4 75.6 80.1 83.3 91.6Lending/GDP (%) 44.8 48.5 47.3 49.6 51.3 51.9 52.4 51.9 51.9 49.5 47.7 44.5 43.4Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 36.8 32.0 33.7 33.7 35.4 33.5 32.3 33.0 30.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.0 NGSD_NGDP




Primary government balance 0.3 -4.3 -5.0 -4.4 -4.0 -3.2 -2.4 -2.7 -2.5 -1.9 -2.1 -1.7 -1.8 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) -81 -126 -92 -128 -158 -193 -153 -143 -126 -94 -140 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -6.6 -10.3 -6.8 -7.5 -8.7 -10.6 -8.2 -7.0 -6.0 -4.2 -5.3 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -15.7 -27.9 -38.4 -47.9 -78.2 -87.8 -32.3 -26.8 -22.1 -15.3 -51.2 -66.6 -67.4 BCA


Net FDI ($bn) 25.3 47.1 35.6 27.4 36.2 24.2 28.2 34.6 44.2 44.5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.0 3.8 2.6 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 0.8 1.6 -0.2 -1.2 -2.3 -3.5 -0.2 0.4 1.1 1.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 28 27 -15 35 38 -3 6 1 -16 -2 13 na naImports (% YoY, value) 33 37 -20 36 33 5 -5 -2 -15 -9 22 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 267 247 265 274 271 271 276 303 334 341 389 na naImport cover (months of imports) 13.7 9.2 12.4 9.4 7.0 6.6 7.1 7.9 10.2 11.5 10.7 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 206 230 253 306 345 394 427 458 479 456 513 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 17 19 19 18 19 22 23 22 23 20 20 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 135 118 153 137 112 133 135 144 180 174 174 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 39 46 47 61 76 93 93 86 82 84 98 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 25 24 28 27 25 31 29 27 31 32 33 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 15 19 18 22 28 34 34 28 24 25 25 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 39 31 17 24 29 30 39 92 50 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 5 2 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 26 16 10 11 10 10 12 29 19 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 15 13 6 9 11 11 14 30 15 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts




Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB-u BBB-u BBB-u naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




82

Indonesia 221 IDN 536 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 163: Indonesia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/BBB-/BBB EODB Rank: 72 (91) - Middle Corruption Rank: 96 (90) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 24 (23) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.3 7.4 4.7 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 NGDP_RPCH



Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 4,297 5,415 6,011 6,864 7,832 8,616 9,546 10,570 11,526 12,407 13,589 14,814 16,147 NGDP

Nominal GDP ($bn) 470 559 578 755 893 919 917 891 861 932 1,015 1,075 1,153 NGDPD

Population (mn) 228 231 234 238 242 245 249 252 255 259 262 265 269 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 1,081 1,413 1,544 1,910 2,382 2,917 3,527 3,962 4,318 4,711 5,087 5,494 5,934Lending/GDP (%) 25.1 26.1 25.7 27.8 30.4 33.9 36.9 37.5 37.5 38.0 37.4 37.1 36.7Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 24.4 33.0 33.0 33.6 33.2 32.4 30.7 31.5 32.0 32.0 31.7 32.0 32.3 NGSD_NGDP




Primary government balance 0.9 1.7 -0.1 0.0 0.5 -0.4 -1.0 -0.9 -1.3 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) 39.8 8.3 20.2 22.1 26.1 -1.7 -4.1 -1.9 7.7 1.3 13.8 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 8.5 1.5 3.5 2.9 2.9 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.9 0.1 1.4 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 6.8 0.1 10.6 5.3 1.7 -24.4 -29.1 -27.5 -17.5 -17.0 -17.3 -20.7 -21.7 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.4 0.0 1.8 0.7 0.2 -2.7 -3.2 -3.1 -2.0 -1.8 -1.7 -1.9 -1.9 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 6.9 9.3 4.9 13.8 19.2 19.1 18.8 21.9 15.5 2.7 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.5 1.7 0.8 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.5 1.8 0.3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2.9 1.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 -0.6 -1.1 -0.6 -0.2 -1.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 13 20 -15 36 29 -7 -4 -3 -15 -9 23 na naImports (% YoY, value) 22 73 -25 41 31 8 -3 -5 -20 -5 14 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 55 50 64 93 107 109 96 109 103 113 127 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8.9 4.6 7.9 8.2 7.2 6.8 6.2 7.3 8.7 10.0 9.8 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 142 155 173 202 225 252 266 294 310 319 352 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 30 28 30 27 25 27 29 33 36 34 35 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 124 114 149 128 111 133 146 167 206 233 209 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 19 20 24 33 38 44 46 46 38 41 49 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 16 15 21 21 19 23 25 26 26 30 29 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 34 41 38 36 36 41 48 42 37 36 39 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 24 22 25 32 31 36 42 62 56 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 7 6 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 21 16 21 20 15 19 23 35 37 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 44 44 39 34 29 33 44 57 54 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts




Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba3 Ba3 Ba2 Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- naFitch BB- BB BB BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




83

Iran 222 IRN 429 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 164: Iran key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) -/-/WD EODB Rank: 124 (120) - Middle Corruption Rank: 130 (131) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 17 (19) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.7 -0.1 0.0 5.7 3.1 -7.7 -0.3 3.2 -1.6 12.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 71.4 72.3 73.2 74.2 75.2 76.0 76.9 78.5 79.5 80.5 81.4 82.4 83.3 LP





Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 6.5 0.6 0.8 2.6 0.6 -0.3 -0.9 -1.1 -1.8 -2.3 -2.3 -1.4 -2.7 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 6.6 0.6 0.8 2.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -1.1 -1.7 -2.2 -2.2 -1.0 2.1 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) 32.6 46.4 14.0 18.4 43.0 20.1 10.8 -4.9 -16.8 -14.1 -10.9 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 9.3 11.4 3.4 3.8 7.4 5.2 2.7 -1.2 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 31.5 20.3 8.8 20.4 60.3 23.4 26.5 13.6 1.2 16.3 18.4 29.2 26.0 BCA


Net FDI ($bn) 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.7 3.0 2.1 2.1 3.4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.8 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 9.5 5.5 2.9 5.0 11.2 7.2 7.5 3.7 0.9 4.9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 16 35 -39 33 31 -26 -23 1 -39 19 36 na naImports (% YoY, value) 11 29 -15 33 3 -8 -16 30 -19 8 22 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 55 44 38 32 24 14 12 9 8 7 6 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 16 11 9 7 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 70 42 60 38 21 17 19 15 21 15 10 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 15 10 10 10 9 3 2 2 2 3 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 19 9 15 12 8 4 3 3 5 7 4 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 1 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 4 3 4 2 1 1 1 1 2 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na na na na na 0.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na na #N/A



Credit rating history LatestMoody's na na na na na na na na na na na na naStandard & Poor's na na na na na na na na na na na na naFitch na na na na na na na na na na na na naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




84

165Figure 165: Credit ratings IRQ Figure 166: Consensus forecasts Figure 169: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date Prior Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's Caa1 Aug-17 - = CPI (%) na naS&P B- Sep-15 - = C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch B- Aug-15 - = Fiscal bal (%GDP)na naLocal currencyMoody's Caa1 Aug-17 - = FX vs $, YE na naS&P B- Sep-15 - = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch - - - = Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 170: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$IRAQ 6.752 03/09/23 1,000 100.17 6.75 4.0 6.7 381.6 AO6083155IRAQ 5.8 01/15/28 2,700 94.68 5.80 4.7 6.5 423.2 EF2306852

UV3543443



Geographic share Geographic shareChina 23% China 19%Euro area 22% EU 9%US 8% US 5%Japan 2% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 20% Turkey 20% Figure 172: CPI vs policy rateKorea 11% Syria 19%Syria 3% Russia 4%Taiwan 2% Korea 3%Singapore 2% Oman 3%

Product ProductFuels 98% Machinery and transport 34%Gemstones and non-monetary gold1% Other manufactures 31%Food items 0% Other machinery/transport 25%Chemicals 0% Food items 20%Other manufactures 0% Iron and steel 9%


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Iraq CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



85

Figure 173: Iraq key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa1/B-/B- EODB Rank: 168 (165) - Weak Corruption Rank: 169 (166) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 1.9 8.2 3.4 6.4 7.5 13.9 7.6 0.7 4.8 11.0 -0.8 3.1 4.9Investment (% GDP) 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 26.9 25.7 24.4 20.6 17.4 18.3 19.0Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl tn) 111 157 131 162 217 254 274 274 210 203 234 264 276Nominal GDP ($bn) 89 132 112 139 186 218 235 235 180 172 198 223 233Population (mn) 28.7 29.4 30.2 31.0 31.8 32.6 33.4 36.0 36.9 37.9 38.9 39.9 40.9GDP per capita ($) 3,091 4,472 3,702 4,474 5,849 6,693 7,021 6,517 4,869 4,533 5,088 5,601 5,709Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 2.8 4.4 5.1 8.9 12.7 20.5 23.3 25.5 26.5 28.4 na na naLending/GDP (%) 2.6 2.8 3.9 5.5 5.8 8.0 8.5 9.3 12.7 14.0 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 18.7 34.8 10.6 23.7 33.0 27.2 28.1 28.3 18.0 12.0 18.1 18.5 17.4PricesCPI (average % YoY) 30.8 2.7 -2.2 2.4 5.6 6.1 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 2.0 2.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 4.7 6.8 -4.4 3.3 6.0 3.6 3.1 1.6 2.3 -1.0 0.4 2.0 2.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 7.8 -0.9 -12.8 -4.2 4.7 4.1 -5.8 -5.4 -12.3 -13.9 -2.3 0.3 -0.6Primary government balance 7.3 -1.0 -12.6 -3.7 5.5 4.5 -5.4 -5.1 -11.7 -13.2 -1.2 1.9 0.8Total public debt (% of GDP) 120.8 75.5 87.4 53.5 40.7 34.8 31.2 32.0 55.1 64.4 58.0 54.7 54.4External indicatorsExports ($bn) 28 36 58 38 49 75 90 85 82 51 46 64 na naImports ($bn) 11 11 19 23 26 33 38 43 42 36 30 35 na naTrade balance ($bn) 24.7 39.6 14.8 23.1 41.7 52.0 42.4 39.6 15.3 16.0 29.5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 27.8 30.1 13.3 16.7 22.5 23.8 18.1 16.9 8.5 9.3 14.9 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -3.0 16.7 -12.9 2.3 20.2 11.0 2.7 6.1 -11.6 -14.7 1.4 0.4 -3.7Current account balance (% of GDP) -3.4 12.7 -11.5 1.6 10.9 5.1 1.1 2.6 -6.5 -8.6 0.7 0.2 -1.6Net FDI ($bn) 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.9 3.4 5.1 4.8 3.5 -5.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 -3.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.3 14.1 -10.1 2.6 11.9 6.6 3.3 4.6 -4.5 -12.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 29 62 -35 30 52 21 -6 -4 -37 -10 38 na naImports (% YoY, value) 7 67 21 14 26 16 12 0 -14 -16 13 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 31.3 49.9 44.1 50.4 60.7 68.7 76.1 62.9 51.0 41.6 45.1 na naImport cover (months of imports) 33.2 31.7 23.1 23.2 22.2 21.7 21.5 17.8 16.9 16.4 15.7 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 17 16 15 17 18 20 20 18 22 20 19 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 19 12 14 12 10 9 8 8 12 12 10 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 47 28 41 35 24 22 23 22 43 44 30 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 1 2 2 2 1 3 4 3 3 4 0 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 5 0 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na na na 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 29.5 30.1 32.9 19.5 4.6 16.2 3.5 -9.0 na na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1,720 1,755 1,632 1,552 1,629 1,499 1,549 1,549 1,294 1,306 1,335 1,465 1,482


Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - B- B- B- B- naFitch - - - - - - - - B- B- B- B- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Iraq



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174Figure 174: Credit ratings CIV Figure 175: Consensus forecasts Figure 178: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's Ba3 Nov-15 (B1) = CPI (%) na naS&P - - (-) na C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch B+ Dec-15 (B) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's Ba3 Nov-15 (B1) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P - - (-) na FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B+ Dec-15 (B) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 179: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$IVYCST 5 ⅜ 07/23/24 500 98.21 5.38 5.1 5.7 279.2 EK3927382IVYCST 6 ⅜ 03/03/28 1,000 101.20 6.38 6.6 6.2 322.9 EK7716880IVYCST 5 ¾ 12/31/32 1,969 96.27 5.75 5.9 6.4 359.6 EI2021067



Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 30% EU 25%US 9% China 14%China 1% US 2%Japan 0% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesNigeria 6% Nigeria 22% Figure 181: CPI vs policy rateBurkina Faso 5% Bahamas 5%India 5% India 4%Ghana 4% Thailand 2%Switzerland 4% UK 2%

Product ProductFood items 52% Machinery and transport 28%Fuels 19% Other machinery/transport 24%Agricultural raw materials 8% Fuels 24%Machinery and transport 7% Food items 17%Other machinery/transport 7% Other manufactures 16%


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Ivory Coast CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



87

Figure 182: Ivory Coast key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/-/B+ EODB Rank: 139 (142) - Weak Corruption Rank: 103 (108) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 29 (24) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 1.8 2.5 3.3 2.0 -4.2 10.1 9.3 8.8 8.8 8.3 7.8 7.4 7.1Investment (% GDP) 9.9 12.1 8.7 13.4 4.0 16.1 20.7 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.1 22.6 24.0Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl bn) 9,750 10,848 11,464 12,325 12,113 13,677 15,446 17,461 19,595 21,562 23,446 25,472 27,714Nominal GDP ($bn) 20 24 24 25 26 27 31 35 33 36 40 48 53Population (mn) 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.3 25.0 25.6 26.3GDP per capita ($) 1,055 1,229 1,197 1,195 1,201 1,221 1,388 1,531 1,398 1,495 1,617 1,880 2,016Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1,485 1,652 1,887 2,146 2,121 2,360 2,862 3,507 4,543 5,191 5,954 6,787 7,737Lending/GDP (%) 15.2 15.2 16.5 17.4 17.5 17.3 18.5 20.1 23.2 24.1 25.4 26.6 27.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 9.3 14.0 15.4 15.3 14.4 14.9 19.4 21.2 19.5 19.6 19.9 21.1 22.7PricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.9 6.3 1.0 1.4 4.9 1.3 2.6 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.7 2.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 1.5 9.0 -1.7 5.1 2.0 3.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 -0.2 1.1 2.0 2.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.5 -0.3 -1.4 -1.8 -4.0 -3.1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.8 -3.9 -4.3 -3.7 -3.0Primary government balance 1.2 1.4 0.1 -0.3 -2.2 -1.4 -0.9 -0.9 -1.3 -2.2 -2.7 -1.9 -1.2Total public debt (% of GDP) 74.0 70.8 64.2 63.0 69.2 45.0 43.4 44.8 47.3 47.0 46.4 48.0 46.9External indicatorsExports ($bn) 8 8.1 9.9 10.3 10.3 11.1 10.9 13.8 12.8 11.9 10.1 11.7 na naImports ($bn) 6 6.7 7.9 7.0 7.9 6.7 10.0 12.7 11.1 9.6 8.4 8.9 na naTrade balance ($bn) 1.4 2.0 3.3 2.4 4.4 0.9 1.0 1.7 2.3 1.7 2.7 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 6.8 8.0 13.6 9.6 17.0 3.3 3.3 4.9 7.1 4.7 6.8 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.1 0.5 1.6 0.5 2.7 -0.3 -0.4 0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7Current account balance (% of GDP) -0.7 1.9 6.6 1.9 10.4 -1.2 -1.4 1.4 -0.6 -1.1 -1.2 -1.5 -1.3Net FDI ($bn) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.4 3.7 8.2 3.2 11.5 0.0 -0.1 2.7 0.7 0.2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) -1 22 5 0 8 -2 27 -7 -7 -15 16 na naImports (% YoY, value) 15 18 -11 12 -15 49 28 -13 -14 -13 7 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 13 12 13 12 13 5 6 7 8 8 11 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 65 49 53 49 50 20 19 19 23 23 27 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 164 120 126 119 116 49 43 51 64 84 94 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 13 10 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 4 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 5 11 11 7 7 7 8 8 7 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 31.8 6.1 20.8 19.1 9.5 6.4 11.6 14.1 17.8 11.0 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 657 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656


Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - B1 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - B B+ B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Ivory Coast



88

Jordan 224 JOR 439 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 183: Jordan key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/B+/- EODB Rank: 103 (118) - Middle Corruption Rank: 59 (57) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 34 (30) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.2 7.2 5.5 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 NGDP_RPCH


Unemployment rate year-end (%) 13.1 12.7 12.9 12.5 12.9 12.2 12.6 11.9 13.1 15.3 na na na LUR



Population (mn) 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.5 LP



PricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.7 14.0 -0.7 4.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 2.9 -0.9 -0.8 3.3 1.5 2.5 PCPIPCH

CPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.1 9.0 2.7 5.7 2.9 6.0 3.1 1.7 -1.6 0.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 PCPIEPCH


Primary government balance -2.2 -2.1 -6.7 -3.5 -4.7 -7.0 -8.2 -6.5 -1.7 -0.4 0.8 3.1 3.3 GGXONLB_NGDP






Net FDI ($bn) 2.6 2.8 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 15.3 12.9 10.1 6.4 5.2 4.9 5.4 5.6 3.4 4.0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1.5 3.5 4.9 -0.7 -5.1 -10.3 -5.1 -1.7 -5.7 -5.4 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 6 13 -19 18 13 20 -16 7 -7 -20 16 na naImports (% YoY, value) 17 26 -16 9 22 10 6 4 -11 -18 22 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 7.5 8.6 11.7 13.1 11.5 8.1 13.2 15.3 15.2 14.0 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.7 6.0 9.9 10.1 7.3 4.7 7.2 8.0 8.9 10.1 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 15 14 15 17 18 19 24 25 26 27 29 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 88 63 61 65 61 61 70 69 70 70 72 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 272 222 289 288 261 232 349 342 388 503 464 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 7 9 9 10 10 11 13 12 12 12 12 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 44 39 36 37 36 34 38 35 31 30 29 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 134 138 169 163 152 131 189 171 173 213 188 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 99 100 73 74 89 131 97 81 77 82 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 7 13 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 20 46 14 13 14 12 14 18 31 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 15 34 6 6 8 12 7 9 14 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts




Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 naStandard & Poor's BB BB BB BB BB BB BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ naFitch - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital



89

184Figure 184: Credit ratings KAZ Figure 185: Consensus forecasts Figure 188: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date Outlook (Prior) 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 3.5 3.2Moody's Baa3 Apr-16 = (Baa2) CPI (%) 6.1 5.6S&P BBB- Feb-16 = (BBB) C/A bal. (% GDP) -2.2 -2.1Fitch - - = (BBB+) Fiscal bal (%GDP) -1.5 -1.3Local currencyMoody's Baa3 Apr-16 = (Baa2) FX vs $, YE 310 naS&P BBB- Feb-16 = (BBB) FX vs EUR, YE 391 naFitch BBB Apr-16 = (A-) Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 189: KazPrime rateSovereign ($)KAZAKS 3 ⅞ 10/14/24 1,500 100.57 3.88 5.7 3.8 83.6 EK5325858KAZAKS 5 ⅛ 07/21/25 2,500 106.83 5.13 6.0 4.0 107.7 AF2793467KAZAKS 4 ⅞ 10/14/44 1,000 98.61 4.88 14.7 5.0 192.9 EK5167292KAZAKS 6 ½ 07/21/45 1,500 119.65 6.50 13.7 5.1 211.3 AF2793459KAZNMH 4 ⅝ 05/24/23 961 98.15 4.63 4.4 5.0 213.8 EJ6857530Sovereign (EUR)KAZNMH 3.255 05/22/19 600 102.20 3.26 1.0 1.1 139.7 EK2695774Corporate ($)KZOKZ 7 05/05/20 1,371 107.26 7.00 1.8 3.2 51.8 EI2387682KZOKZ 4.4 04/30/23 407 99.71 4.40 4.4 4.5 155.9 EJ6525244KZOKZ 5 ¾ 04/19/47 1,250 95.69 5.75 13.7 6.1 303.8 AN1049112DBKAZ 4 ⅛ 12/10/22 1,103 100.06 4.13 4.1 4.1 121.5 EJ4594531HSBKKZ 7 ¼ 01/28/21 500 108.92 7.25 2.5 3.8 99.4 EI5457003KKB 5 ½ 12/21/22 750 99.81 5.50 4.0 5.5 265.2 EJ4852087Figure 190: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)KTZKZ 4.85 11/17/27 780 99.45 4.85 7.4 4.9 193.8 AQ0209306KTZKZ 6.95 07/10/42 1,100 109.15 6.95 11.9 6.2 317.4 EJ2667560Corporate (other)DBKAZ 9 ½ 12/14/20 100,000 104.71 9.50 2.2 7.5 na AQ242461KTZFIN 8 ¾ 06/07/22 (RUB) 15,000 99.80 8.75 3.2 8.9 122.3 AN8612615

Figure 187: Trade profileExports, 2016 ($bn) 46 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 34Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 38% China 26%China 15% EU 17%Japan 2% US 2%US 2% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesRussia 12% Russia 33% Figure 191: CPI vs policy rateUzbekistan 3% Uzbekistan 3%Romania 3% Turkey 2%Turkey 3% Ukraine 2%Iran 3% Belarus 2%

Product ProductFuels 61% Machinery and transport 36%Non-Ferrous Metals 10% Other manufactures 30%Other manufactures 9% Other machinery/transport 27%Iron and steel 8% Chemicals 13%Other ores and metals 5% Food items 11%


Kazakhstan

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Kazakhstan 2025 $ bond US generic 10y YtM

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KZT vs $ KZT vs EURKazakhstan REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

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Kazakhstan CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



90

Figure 192: Kazakhstan key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BBB-/BBB EODB Rank: 36 (35) - Strong Corruption Rank: 122 (131) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 65 (51) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.9 3.3 1.2 7.3 7.2 4.6 5.8 4.1 1.2 1.4 4.0 3.6 3.5Private consumption (% YoY) 10.9 7.8 0.6 11.8 10.9 11.0 12.6 1.5 2.0 1.1 3.6 3.8 3.6Government consumption (% YoY) 14.0 2.6 1.0 2.7 11.3 13.2 1.7 9.8 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.5Investment (% YoY) 17.3 1.0 -0.8 3.8 3.9 9.1 4.9 4.4 1.0 3.0 4.8 4.5 4.4Industrial production (% YoY) 6.2 2.6 2.7 9.6 3.8 0.7 2.3 0.2 -0.6 -1.1 7.1 3.5 4.0Unemployment rate year-end (%) 7.3 6.6 6.6 5.8 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0Nominal GDP (KZTbn) 12,850 16,053 17,008 21,816 28,243 31,015 35,999 39,676 40,884 46,971 51,567 56,843 62,185Nominal GDP (EURbn) 76 91 83 112 134 157 178 166 165 124 140 139 141Nominal GDP ($bn) 105 133 115 148 188 204 220 221 183 137 154 172 183Population (mn) 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.5GDP per capita ($) 6,772 8,514 7,165 9,070 11,357 12,119 12,933 12,710 10,358 7,673 8,462 9,311 9,382Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 27.5 32.2 25.8 26.3 28.3 25.7 25.1 28.6 26.6 22.3 22.8 24.4 25.5Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 69.0 57.5 56.7 41.6 37.9 38.6 37.8 36.4 38.0 33.2 32.7 32.0 32.5Loan to deposit ratio % 220 201 164 133 134 137 136 125 100 90 94 96 97PricesCPI (average % YoY) 10.7 17.3 7.3 7.1 8.4 5.1 5.8 6.71 6.6 14.7 7.5 6.4 5.7CPI (end-year % YoY) 18.8 9.5 6.2 7.8 7.4 6 4.8 7.4 13.6 8.5 7.1 5.8 5.5PPI (average % YoY) 12.1 38.4 -20.1 27 27.3 3.8 -0.3 9.6 -20.2 15.5 14.2 8.4 8Wage rates (% YoY, nominal) 30.6 14.1 11.4 14.6 16.1 12.4 7.5 10.9 4.1 13.7 6.5 6 6.5Fiscal balanceConsolidated govt. balance (% of GDP) -1.7 -2.1 -3.1 -2.5 -2.1 -2.9 -2.1 -2.2 -2.5 -1.6 -3.0 -1.5 -1.2Total public debt (% of GDP) 7.7 9.8 16.5 17.5 12.4 12.3 12.2 14.1 19.4 19.7 20.9 22.5 23.2External balanceExports ($bn) 47.8 72.0 43.9 61.4 85.2 86.9 83.4 80.3 46.0 37.3 49.2 53.0 56.0Imports ($bn) 32.8 38.4 28.9 32.9 40.3 49.1 49.7 44.1 33.6 27.9 31.7 35.5 41.0Trade balance ($bn) 15.0 33.6 15.0 28.5 44.8 37.9 33.7 36.2 12.4 9.4 17.5 17.5 15.0Trade balance (% of GDP) 14.3 25.2 13.0 19.2 23.8 18.6 15.3 16.4 6.8 6.9 11.4 10.2 8.2Current account balance ($bn) -8.4 6.3 -4.1 1.4 10.2 1.0 1.3 6.1 -5.1 -8.9 -4.7 -5.5 -6.0Current account balance (% of GDP) -8.0 4.7 -3.6 0.9 5.4 0.5 0.6 2.8 -2.8 -6.5 -3.1 -3.2 -3.3Net FDI ($bn) 12.0 16.8 14.3 7.5 13.8 13.6 10.0 7.2 6.4 17.0 4.1 6.0 6.0Net FDI (% of GDP) 11.4 12.6 12.4 5.1 7.3 6.7 4.5 3.3 3.5 12.4 2.7 3.5 3.3Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 3.4 17.3 8.8 6.0 12.8 7.2 5.1 6.0 0.7 5.9 -0.4 0.3 0.0Exports (% YoY, value) 37 50 -39 40 39 2 -4 -4 -43 -19 32 8 6Imports (% YoY, value) 54 17 -25 14 23 22 1 -11 -24 -17 14 12 15Foreign exchange reserves ($bn) 38.6 47.4 47.5 59.3 73.0 86.2 95.5 102.5 91.3 90.7 88.0 93.0 99.0Import cover (months of imports) 14.1 14.8 19.7 21.6 21.7 21.1 23.1 27.9 32.6 39.1 33.3 31.4 29.0Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 97 108 113 118 125 137 149 158 153 164 170 174 180Gross external debt (% of GDP) 92 81 98 80 67 67 67 71 84 119 110 101 98Gross external debt (% of exports) 203 150 257 193 147 158 178 196 333 439 346 328 321Total debt service ($bn) 25 32 30 21 23 22 25 26 25 26 28 29 30Total debt service (% of GDP) 24 24 26 14 12 11 11 12 14 19 18 17 16Total debt service (% of exports) 53 44 69 34 26 25 29 32 54 70 57 55 54Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (% YoY) 25.7 30.6 15.5 23.1 21.3 7.3 1.6 -8.2 8.1 46.4 24.0 16.0 12.0NBK refinancing rate (% year-end) 11.0 10.5 7.0 7.5 7.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 16.0 12.0 10.3 8.5 8.010-year yield (avg %) 5.1 6.0 7.1 6.9 6.2 5.7 5.8 6.4 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.5Exchange rate (KZT/EUR) year-end 176 168 213 197 192 199 212 225 371 351 395 422 455Exchange rate (KZT/EUR) annual average 168 177 206 196 205 192 202 239 248 379 368 409 442Exchange rate (KZT/$) year-end 121 121 148 147 148 151 154 182 341 334 335 335 350Exchange rate (KZT/$) annual average 123 120 148 147 147 149 152 179 223 342 326 330 340Credit rating history Current

Moody's WR WR WR WR WR WR WR Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BBB BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB na

Source: NBK, Agency of Statistics of Kazakhstan, Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan, World Bank, IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates

Kazakhstan



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193Figure 193: Credit ratings KEN Figure 194: Consensus forecasts Figure 197: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 5.5 5.9Moody's B2 Feb-18 (B1) = CPI (%) 5.3 5.6S&P B+ Nov-10 (B) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -5.9 -6.0Fitch B+ Dec-07 (-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -7.4 -6.3Local currencyMoody's B2 Feb-18 (B1) = FX vs $, YE 107.0 109.0S&P B+ Nov-10 (B) = FX vs EUR, YE 134.8 141.7Fitch B+ Jul-16 (BB-) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 198: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$KENINT 5 7/8 06/24/19 750 101.82 5.88 1.1 4.2 164.8 EK3388940KENINT 6 7/8 06/24/24 2,000 104.13 6.88 4.9 6.1 310.6 EK3389005KENINT 7 1/4 02/28/28 1,000 103.62 7.25 6.9 6.7 372.8 AR2642478KENINT 8 1/4 02/28/48 1,000 103.89 8.25 11.2 7.9 485.6 AR2648533LocalKENGB 12.371 06/19/23 37,386 100.40 12.37 3.6 12.3 na EJ7309788KENGB 12.18 01/15/24 35,584 99.33 12.18 3.9 12.3 na EK015836KENGB 11 09/06/27 24,425 90.60 11.00 5.5 12.7 na EJ3728163



Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 15% China 30%US 8% EU 9%China 1% US 5%Japan 1% Japan 5%Other key countries Other key countriesUganda 11% India 15% Figure 200: CPI vs policy rateTanzania 8% UAE 6%UK 6% South Africa 3%Pakistan 4% Saudi Arabia 3%DR Congo 4% UK 3%

Product ProductFood items 44% Machinery and transport 31%Other manufactures 22% Other manufactures 26%Agricultural raw materials 12% Other machinery/transport 24%Chemicals 8% Fuels 14%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 8% Chemicals 13%


Kenya

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KES vs $ KES vs EURKenya REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

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Kenya 3M (BVAL) yield Kenya 2y (BVAL) yieldKenya 5y (BVAL) yield Kenya 10y (BVAL) yield

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Kenya CPI, % YoY Policy rate (%)



92

Figure 201: Kenya key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B+/B+ EODB Rank: 80 (92) - Middle Corruption Rank: 143 (145) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 23 (16) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 6.9 0.2 3.3 8.4 6.1 4.5 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.8 4.4 4.6 5.0Private consumption (%YoY) 7.3 -1.3 5.0 7.2 2.8 5.7 8.3 7.6 6.1 6.2 2.5 3.0 3.5Government consumption (%YoY) 3.5 2.5 3.8 9.2 10.6 7.3 1.1 8.2 7.9 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.5Investment (%YoY) 18.5 13.6 9.5 2.8 7.7 6.0 6.5 7.5 8.1 8.0 7.0 6.5 6.5Industry, value added (%YoY) 7.1 4.7 2.8 7.9 6.7 3.5 5.8 6.1 6.7 5.5 4.6 5.0 5.0Nominal GDP (KESbn) 2,151 2,483 2,864 3,169 3,726 4,255 4,745 5,398 6,261 7,159 8,142 9,142 10,269Nominal GDP (€bn) 23.3 24.4 26.6 30.2 30.1 39.2 41.5 46.6 57.1 64.1 70.7 72.2 75.9Nominal GDP ($bn) 32.0 35.9 37.1 40.0 42.0 50.4 55.1 61.3 63.7 70.5 78.9 86.7 93.7Population (mn) 35.7 36.7 37.7 38.5 39.5 40.7 41.8 43.0 44.2 45.5 46.7 48.0 49.4GDP per capita ($) 896 978 983 1,040 1,062 1,237 1,319 1,427 1,441 1,552 1,689 1,805 1,898Gross national saving (% of GDP) 15.1 12.7 14.4 12.4 9.4 9.6 11.3 12.2 10.9 15.5 15.4 14.0 13.5Bank credit to private sector (lcl bn) 541 686 758 915 1,191 1,360 1,580 2,035 2,402 2,570 2,596 2,699 2,888Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 25.1 27.6 26.5 28.9 32.0 32.0 33.3 37.7 38.4 35.9 31.9 29.5 28.1Loan to deposit ratio 71.8 73.3 75.3 74.0 80.0 77.3 74.0 76.0 77.0 75.0 77.0 78.0 78.0PricesCPI (average %YoY) 4.3 16.2 9.4 3.8 13.6 9.6 5.7 6.9 6.6 6.2 7.8 5.9 7.8CPI (end-year %YoY) 5.6 17.8 5.3 4.5 18.6 3.2 7.1 6.0 8.0 6.0 4.5 9.0 7.8Fiscal balance (% of GDP)*General government budget balance -3.2 -4.2 -4.9 -4.8 -5.8 -5.5 -6.1 -8.5 -7.4 -8.9 -8.0 -7.0 6.5General government primary balance -0.8 -1.8 -2.7 -2.5 -2.2 -2.9 -3.3 -4.8 -5.3 -5.7 -5.1 -3.2 -2.3Total public debt 43.1 44.4 45.1 47.5 44.8 43.2 41.5 46.7 51.3 52.7 56.2 57.0 58.0External balanceExports ($bn) 4.1 5.0 4.5 5.2 5.8 6.1 5.8 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.7 6.0Imports ($bn) 8.4 10.7 9.5 12.1 14.8 16.4 16.8 17.6 15.6 15.6 16.2 17.6 18.4Trade balance ($bn) -4.3 -5.6 -5.0 -6.9 -9.0 -10.3 -11.0 -11.4 -9.6 -9.8 -10.4 -11.8 -12.5Trade balance (% of GDP) -13.3 -15.7 -13.5 -17.3 -21.5 -20.4 -19.9 -18.6 -15.0 -13.9 -13.2 -13.6 -13.3Current account balance ($bn) -1.1 -2.0 -1.6 -2.5 -4.5 -4.3 -4.9 -6.3 -4.3 -3.9 -5.3 -6.9 -6.0Current account balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -5.6 -4.4 -6.3 -10.6 -8.5 -8.8 -10.3 -6.8 -5.5 -6.7 -8.0 -6.4Net FDI ($bn) 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.9Net FDI (% of GDP) 2.3 0.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1.1 -5.3 -2.8 -4.5 -8.7 -6.8 -8.0 -9.1 -5.1 -3.5 -4.8 -5.9 -4.4Exports (%YoY, value) 18 22 -11 14 12 6 -5 6 -3 -4 0 2 4Imports (%YoY, value) 24 27 -11 27 22 11 3 5 -12 0 17 10 5Foreign exchange reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 3.4 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.0 5.4 6.2 6.9 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1Import cover (months of imports) 4.8 3.2 4.9 4.0 3.2 3.9 4.4 4.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.6Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 8 8 9 9 10 14 16 23 27 32 36 40 40Gross external debt (% of GDP) 24 21 25 23 25 28 30 37 43 45 46 46 42Gross external debt (% of exports) 182 151 207 176 179 233 279 370 452 553 631 697 661Total debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 2 1 2 2 2Total debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 2 5 5 6 3 2 3 3 2Total debt service (% of exports) 11 8 9 5 11 39 51 59 29 25 43 34 34Interest & exchange ratesCentral bank rate (CBR), %YE 8.8 8.5 7.0 6.0 18.0 11.0 8.5 8.5 11.5 10.0 10.0 9.5 9.0Broad money supply (%YoY) 20.9 13.0 16.0 21.7 19.1 14.9 14.7 16.9 14.0 17.0 3.0 6.0 9.0Credit to the private sector (%YoY) 16.4 27.2 19.5 21.3 30.1 11.1 16.2 28.8 18.0 7.0 1.0 4.0 7.05Y yield (%avg) 11.5 10.5 10.5 9.5 14.5 13.5 12.9 12.6 13.2 12.7 13.0 12.5 12.5Exchange rate (KES/EUR) year-end 93 109 109 108 110 113 119 110 113 108 122 131 140Exchange rate (KES/EUR) annual average 92 102 108 105 124 109 114 116 110 112 115 127 135Exchange rate (KES/$) year-end 64 78 76 81 85 86 86 91 102 103 103 108 112Exchange rate (KES/$) annual average 67 69 77 79 89 85 86 88 98 102 103 105 110Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B2 naStandard & Poor's B+ B B B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naFitch B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ na

Source: IMF, UNCTAD, Central Bank of Kenya, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates

Kenya



93

Korea 227 KOR 542 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 202: Korea key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa2/AA/AA- EODB Rank: 4 (5) - Strong Corruption Rank: 51 (52) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 94 (95) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.9 NGDP_RPCH




Nominal GDP ($bn) 1,123 1,002 902 1,094 1,202 1,223 1,306 1,411 1,383 1,411 1,538 1,693 1,778 NGDPD

Population (mn) 48.7 49.1 49.3 49.6 49.9 50.2 50.4 50.7 51.0 51.2 51.5 51.7 51.9 LP





Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 2.2 1.5 0.0 1.5 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 1.4 1.2 -0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) 14.7 -13.4 40.2 41.2 31.0 28.3 44.0 47.2 90.3 89.8 89.5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 1.3 -1.3 4.5 3.8 2.6 2.3 3.4 3.3 6.5 6.4 5.8 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 11.8 3.2 33.6 28.9 18.7 50.8 81.1 84.4 105.9 99.2 78.5 92.4 104.0 BCA


Net FDI ($bn) 8.8 11.2 9.0 9.5 9.8 9.5 12.8 9.3 5.0 10.8 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.8 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.8 1.4 4.7 3.5 2.4 4.9 7.2 6.6 8.0 7.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 14 14 -14 28 19 -1 2 2 -8 -6 13 na naImports (% YoY, value) 15 22 -26 32 23 -1 -1 2 -17 -7 16 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 262 201 270 291 304 323 342 359 363 366 384 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8.8 5.5 10.0 8.2 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.2 10.0 10.8 9.8 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 339 316 345 356 400 409 424 424 396 384 419 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 30 32 38 33 33 33 32 30 29 27 27 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 91 75 95 76 72 75 76 74 75 77 75 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 166 149 149 136 140 128 112 116 104 105 116 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 15 15 16 12 12 10 9 8 8 7 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 45 35 41 29 25 23 20 20 20 21 21 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 63 74 55 47 46 40 33 32 29 29 30 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts



Exchange rate ($) annual average 929 1,102 1,277 1,156 1,108 1,126 1,095 1,053 1,131 1,160 1,130 1,080 1,082

Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A2 A2 A1 A1 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 naStandard & Poor's A A A A A A+ A+ A+ AA- AA AA AA naFitch A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




94

Kuwait 228 KWT 443 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 203: Kuwait key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa2/AA/AA EODB Rank: 96 (102) - Middle Corruption Rank: 85 (75) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.0 2.5 -7.1 -2.4 10.9 7.9 0.4 0.6 -1.0 2.2 -2.5 1.3 3.8 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 LP





Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 37.4 20.2 27.5 26.0 33.3 32.4 34.1 22.4 5.6 0.6 4.0 7.1 6.2 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 25.6 11.1 18.1 16.9 26.5 25.4 25.8 12.7 -7.5 -13.8 -9.8 -5.5 -6.4 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) 34.7 56.1 30.5 42.2 63.0 80.4 75.1 64.7 21.9 10.8 14.5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 30.3 38.1 28.7 36.5 40.9 46.2 43.1 39.8 19.1 9.7 12.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 42.2 60.2 28.3 36.7 66.1 79.1 70.2 54.4 4.0 -5.0 2.4 7.8 5.0 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 36.8 40.9 26.7 31.8 42.9 45.5 40.3 33.4 3.5 -4.5 2.0 5.8 3.6 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.3 3.3 2.9 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 36.9 40.9 27.7 32.9 45.1 47.1 41.1 34.0 3.8 -4.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 15 47 -40 31 41 19 -4 -8 -44 -23 16 na naImports (% YoY, value) 24 23 -28 20 26 1 3 6 1 -4 9 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 16.7 17.1 20.3 21.2 25.8 28.9 29.4 32.1 28.3 31.0 33.6 na naImport cover (months of imports) 9.3 7.8 12.7 11.2 10.8 11.9 11.8 12.2 10.6 12.0 11.9 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 43 43 30 29 24 27 25 28 29 34 44 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 37 29 28 25 16 16 15 17 25 31 36 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 76 52 61 45 27 25 24 29 53 81 90 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 17 13 16 14 11 13 10 14 13 18 16 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 15 9 15 12 7 8 6 8 11 17 13 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 30 16 32 21 12 12 10 14 24 44 33 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 100 77 78 65 42 45 35 43 45 59 48 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts




Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 naStandard & Poor's AA- AA- AA- AA- AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA naFitch AA- AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA naNote: 2017-19E exchange rate forecasts are RenCap forecasts




95

Lebanon 229 LBN 446 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 204: Lebanon key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/B- EODB Rank: 133 (126) - Weak Corruption Rank: 143 (136) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 15 (18) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 9.3 9.2 10.1 8.0 0.9 2.8 2.6 2.0 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 NGDP_RPCH

Investment (% GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na na NID_NGDP


Nominal GDP (lcl tn) 37.5 44.1 53.5 57.9 60.4 66.1 69.4 72.1 74.6 74.8 77.6 80.8 85.0 NGDP


Population (mn) 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 27.7 33.5 38.4 47.8 54.2 59.7 65.9 71.2 75.7 80.2 85.2 88.6 91.7Lending/GDP (%) 74.0 76.0 71.9 82.6 89.7 90.3 95.1 98.8 101.5 107.2 109.8 109.6 107.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 17.6 18.0 16.4 4.7 11.7 0.5 1.5 -1.7 2.8 -2.1 -2.2 -4.3 -4.8 NGSD_NGDP

PricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.1 10.8 1.2 4.0 5.0 6.6 4.8 1.9 -3.7 -0.8 4.5 4.3 3.0 PCPIPCH



Primary government balance 1.7 1.5 2.8 2.7 3.5 -0.2 -0.7 2.5 1.5 0.4 2.5 0.2 0.3 GGXONLB_NGDP






Net FDI ($bn) 3.4 4.0 4.4 3.7 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.6 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 13.6 13.7 12.3 9.8 7.9 7.2 5.9 6.1 4.7 5.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 6.6 3.8 1.8 -10.4 -7.3 -18.5 -23.6 -25.2 -14.9 -18.2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 22 25 0 13 11 5 -11 -17 -11 1 44 na naImports (% YoY, value) 25 37 2 11 12 6 1 -4 -12 4 3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 12.9 20.2 29.1 31.5 33.7 37.2 36.7 39.5 38.8 43.3 43.5 na naImport cover (months of imports) 13.3 15.2 21.6 21.1 20.1 21.0 20.6 23.2 25.7 27.8 27.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 21 21 21 21 21 24 26 26 27 28 30 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 84 71 60 53 52 56 57 54 55 57 59 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 772 614 624 535 491 545 658 781 917 943 710 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 19 15 13 11 13 10 8 8 8 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 175 130 135 108 125 94 88 120 133 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 37 22 16 13 16 11 10 10 10 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts




Credit rating history LatestMoody's B3 B3 B2 B1 B1 B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's B- B- B B B B B- B- B- B- B- B- naFitch B- B- B- B B B B B B B- B- B- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




96

Lithuania 230 LTU 946 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 205: Lithuania key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A3/A/A- EODB Rank: 16 (21) - Strong Corruption Rank: 38 (38) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 11.1 2.6 -14.8 1.6 6.0 3.8 3.5 3.5 2.0 2.3 3.8 3.2 3.0 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 LP



PricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.8 11.2 4.2 1.2 4.1 3.2 1.2 0.2 -0.7 0.7 3.7 2.2 2.2 PCPIPCH


Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.0 -3.3 -9.3 -6.9 -8.9 -3.1 -2.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance -0.5 -2.8 -8.2 -5.2 -7.2 -1.2 -0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 GGXONLB_NGDP

Total public debt (% of GDP) 16 15 29 36 37 40 39 41 43 40 37 34 31 GGXWDG_NGDP



Trade balance ($bn) -7.3 -7.5 -1.8 -2.7 -3.7 -2.4 -2.2 -2.0 -2.8 -2.3 -2.6 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -18.3 -15.6 -4.9 -7.1 -8.6 -5.5 -4.8 -4.2 -6.6 -5.4 -5.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -6.2 -6.5 0.5 -0.5 -2.0 -0.6 0.4 1.5 -1.2 -0.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) -15.5 -13.6 1.4 -1.3 -4.5 -1.4 0.8 3.2 -2.8 -1.1 1.0 -0.1 -0.6 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.5 -0.2 0.9 -0.2 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.1 4.1 0.0 2.1 3.3 1.6 1.0 -0.3 2.1 -0.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -10.4 -9.5 1.4 0.9 -1.2 0.2 1.8 2.8 -0.7 -1.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 21 38 -31 26 35 6 10 -1 -21 -2 20 na naImports (% YoY, value) 26 28 -41 27 36 1 9 -1 -18 -3 19 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 7.6 6.3 6.4 6.3 7.9 8.2 7.8 8.5 1.5 2.4 4.2 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.7 2.4 4.2 3.3 3.0 3.1 2.7 3.0 0.6 1.0 1.6 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 20 33 34 32 33 34 34 31 31 35 42 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 51 68 90 87 75 80 73 64 74 82 88 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 119 139 204 156 116 116 104 96 121 139 140 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 8 18 16 12 12 11 11 10 11 16 19 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 20 37 42 33 28 26 24 21 26 38 39 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 45 76 96 60 43 38 35 31 43 65 62 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 103 287 247 196 152 135 144 118 728 678 440 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 4.0 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 21.7 -0.4 0.3 8.9 4.9 na 4.5 1.1 -61.5 na na na na FM3_XDC


Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A2 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 A3 A3 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's A BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB A- A- A- AA- AA- naFitch A BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB+ A- A- A- A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, BloombergSource: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg



97

Malaysia 231 MYS 548 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 206: Malaysia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A3/A-/A- EODB Rank: 24 (23) - Strong Corruption Rank: 62 (55) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 63 (67) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.3 4.8 -1.5 7.5 5.3 5.5 4.7 6.0 5.0 4.2 5.9 5.3 5.0 NGDP_RPCH



Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 687 795 736 821 912 971 1,019 1,106 1,158 1,230 1,352 1,466 1,577 NGDP


Population (mn) 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.5 30.2 30.7 31.2 31.6 32.1 32.5 32.9 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 741 834 885 966 1,083 1,213 1,337 1,454 1,571 1,662 1,753 1,841 1,914Lending/GDP (%) 107.8 104.9 120.2 117.5 118.8 124.9 131.3 131.4 135.7 135.1 129.6 125.5 121.4Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 37.9 37.6 34.0 33.5 34.1 30.9 29.4 29.4 28.2 28.2 28.4 27.8 27.9 NGSD_NGDP








Trade balance ($bn) 29.2 42.6 33.5 34.0 40.6 31.2 22.3 25.3 24.0 10.6 22.7 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 14.6 17.9 16.0 13.3 13.6 9.9 6.9 7.5 8.1 3.6 7.2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 29.7 39.4 31.4 25.7 32.5 16.2 11.3 14.8 9.0 7.0 9.4 8.7 8.9 BCA


Net FDI ($bn) 8.6 7.2 1.5 9.1 12.2 9.2 12.1 10.9 11.1 9.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.3 3.0 0.7 3.6 4.1 2.9 3.7 3.2 3.8 3.3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 19.2 19.5 15.7 13.6 15.0 8.1 7.2 7.6 6.8 5.7 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 10 13 -21 26 15 0 0 3 -15 -6 15 na naImports (% YoY, value) 13 7 -21 33 14 5 5 1 -16 1 10 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 101 91 95 105 132 138 133 115 94 93 101 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8.2 7.0 9.2 7.6 8.4 8.4 7.8 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 113 91 99 124 138 197 212 214 195 204 217 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 56 38 47 49 46 63 66 63 66 69 69 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 64 46 63 62 60 86 93 91 98 108 100 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 39 32 26 41 50 67 80 69 51 48 49 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 19 13 12 16 17 21 25 20 17 16 16 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 22 16 17 20 22 29 35 29 26 25 22 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 38 35 27 39 38 48 60 60 55 51 48 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 8 6 10 6 6 7 12 13 14 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 4 2 5 2 2 2 4 4 5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 5 3 6 3 3 3 5 6 7 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 8 6 11 5 5 5 9 11 14 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts




Credit rating history LatestMoody's A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 naStandard & Poor's A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- naFitch A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




98

Mauritius 232 MUS 684 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 207: Mauritius key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa1/-/- EODB Rank: 25 (49) - Strong Corruption Rank: 54 (50) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.9 5.5 3.0 4.1 3.9 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 LP






Primary government balance 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.1 -0.3 1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 GGXONLB_NGDP






Net FDI ($bn) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.4 4.0 2.8 4.4 3.8 5.1 2.5 3.3 1.8 2.9 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1.1 -6.1 -4.6 -5.9 -10.0 -2.1 -3.9 -2.3 -3.1 -1.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) -3 -1 -16 14 11 3 2 13 -7 -9 -5 na naImports (% YoY, value) 6 18 -21 17 21 3 -2 4 -13 -1 28 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.5 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5.5 4.6 7.2 6.9 6.1 6.4 7.7 8.0 10.1 11.6 11.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 17 17 19 23 227 211 155 206 155 172 196 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 212 180 214 241 2019 1843 1301 1633 1344 1419 1581 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 805 853 1106 1198 10469 9440 6825 8000 6438 7860 9388 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 9 6 5 12 2 3 3 4 3 5 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 114 66 61 120 15 25 24 28 30 38 42 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 433 312 317 595 79 127 128 140 143 210 249 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 498 364 249 477 66 100 87 99 87 102 95 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 4 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 2 2 31 27 28 28 30 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 8 8 9 8 158 140 149 136 142 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 9 10 7 6 133 111 101 97 86 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 9.3 6.8 5.8 4.8 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na 4.8 4.4 6.4 8.2 5.8 8.7 10.2 9.1 9.3 na na over2



Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




99

208Figure 208: Credit ratings MEX Figure 209: Consensus forecasts Figure 212: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 2.2 2.4Moody's A3 Feb-14 (Baa1) = CPI (%) 4.5 3.6S&P BBB+ Dec-13 (BBB) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -1.8 -1.8Fitch BBB+ May-13 (BBB) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -2.3 -2.2Local currencyMoody's A3 Feb-14 (Baa1) = FX vs $, YE 18.5 18.0S&P A- Dec-17 (A) = FX vs EUR, YE 23.3 23.4Fitch BBB+ Jul-16 (A-) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 213: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$MEX 3 5/8 03/15/22 2,215 100.92 3.63 3.6 3.4 47.9 EI9373685MEX 8 09/24/22 611 121.03 8.00 3.8 2.9 -2.8 EC6906712MEX 4 10/02/23 3,285 101.39 4.00 4.8 3.7 77.3 EJ8512331MEX 3.6 01/30/25 2,454 97.31 3.60 5.9 4.1 108.9 EK6138946MEX 4 1/8 01/21/26 2,730 100.10 4.13 6.5 4.1 112.2 JV6456919MEX 11 1/2 05/15/26 321 151.94 11.50 5.7 3.9 93.5 TT3250053MEX 4.15 03/28/27 3,150 98.73 4.15 7.3 4.3 132.1 AM8943053MEX 3 3/4 01/11/28 2,555 94.48 3.75 7.9 4.5 144.0 AQ5996634MEX 8.3 08/15/31 1,158 147.25 8.30 9.0 3.8 70.7 EC4344866MEX 7 1/2 04/08/33 787 130.03 7.50 9.7 4.7 162.8 EC9335752MEX 6.05 01/11/40 3,317 110.04 6.05 12.3 5.3 219.6 EH1544665MEX 4 3/4 03/08/44 4,463 94.19 4.75 14.3 5.2 209.3 EJ0530851MEX 5.55 01/21/45 3,000 105.61 5.55 14.0 5.2 209.7 EK0192634Figure 214: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)MEX 4.6 01/23/46 3,000 91.77 4.60 14.8 5.2 209.9 EK6947437MEX 4.35 01/15/47 2,000 88.71 4.35 15.3 5.1 204.5 QZ1787519MEX 4.6 02/10/48 2,525 91.80 4.60 15.3 5.1 208.5 AP3916842MEX 5 3/4 10/12/10 2,678 98.83 5.75 17.1 5.8 292.1 EI4279358


Geographic share Geographic shareUS 81% US 47%Euro area 4% China 18%China 1% EU 9%Japan 1% Japan 4%Other key countries Other key countriesCanada 3% Korea 4% Figure 215: CPI vs policy rateBrazil 1% Canada 3%Colombia 1% Malaysia 2%Korea 1% Taiwan 2%UK 1% Thailand 1%

Product ProductMachinery and transport 62% Machinery and transport 49%Other machinery/transport 42% Other machinery/transport 29%Other manufactures 16% Other manufactures 21%Electronic goods (except parts) 11% Electronic components 16%Electronic components 9% Chemicals 11%


Mexico

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Mexico 2026 $ bond Generic Mexico 10y $ bondUS generic 10y YtM

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MXN vs $ MXN vs EURMexico REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

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Mexico 3M yield index Mexico 2Y yield indexMexico 5Y yield index Mexico 10Y yield index

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Mexico CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



100

Figure 216: Mexico key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A3/BBB+/BBB+ EODB Rank: 49 (47) - Strong Corruption Rank: 135 (123) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 56 (56) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 2.3 1.1 -5.3 5.1 3.7 3.6 1.4 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.0 2.3 3.0Investment (% GDP) 23.1 24.1 22.9 22.8 23.3 23.9 22.5 21.9 23.3 23.7 23.2 22.9 22.9Unemployment rate year-end (%) 3.6 3.9 5.3 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.5 3.4Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 11,504 12,354 12,163 13,366 14,666 15,818 16,277 17,471 18,537 20,100 21,751 22,981 24,434Nominal GDP ($bn) 1,053 1,110 900 1,058 1,180 1,201 1,274 1,314 1,170 1,077 1,149 1,213 1,285Population (mn) 110 111 113 114 116 117 118 120 121 122 124 125 126GDP per capita ($) 9,589 9,973 7,975 9,258 10,205 10,261 10,764 10,979 9,666 8,807 9,304 9,723 10,205Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 3,021 3,071 3,334 3,648 4,195 4,560 5,104 5,483 6,271 7,280 7,729 8,348 9,015Lending/GDP (%) 26.3 24.9 27.4 27.3 28.6 28.8 31.4 31.4 33.8 36.2 35.5 36.3 36.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.2 22.6 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.4 20.1 20.1 20.8 21.6 21.5 21.0 20.7PricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.0 5.1 5.3 4.2 3.4 4.1 3.8 4.0 2.7 2.8 6.0 4.4 3.1CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.8 6.5 3.6 4.4 3.8 3.6 4.0 4.1 2.1 3.4 6.8 3.6 3.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.1 -0.8 -4.9 -3.9 -3.4 -3.7 -3.7 -4.5 -4.0 -2.8 -1.1 -2.5 -2.5Primary government balance 1.5 1.7 -2.2 -1.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.7 -1.5 -1.0 0.6 3.0 1.0 0.6Total public debt (% of GDP) 37.2 42.5 43.7 42.0 42.9 42.7 45.9 48.9 52.9 56.8 54.2 53.5 53.4External indicatorsExports ($bn) 250 272 291 230 298 349 371 380 397 380 374 409 na naImports ($bn) 271 298 326 248 319 371 392 403 423 418 409 445 na naTrade balance ($bn) -26.8 -35.3 -18.4 -20.8 -22.0 -21.8 -23.6 -26.6 -38.0 -35.6 -35.5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -3.2 -2.0 -2.0 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -3.3 -3.3 -3.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -9.6 -16.8 -7.7 -5.0 -12.4 -18.4 -30.9 -23.7 -29.3 -22.8 -18.8 -23.3 -28.5Current account balance (% of GDP) -0.9 -1.5 -0.9 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.4 -1.8 -2.5 -2.1 -1.6 -1.9 -2.2Net FDI ($bn) 32.4 29.1 17.9 26.4 23.6 20.4 45.9 25.7 30.3 26.7 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3.1 2.6 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 3.6 2.0 2.6 2.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2.2 1.1 1.1 2.0 1.0 0.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 8.7 7.2 -21.1 29.9 17.1 6.1 2.5 4.5 -4.1 -1.7 9.5 na naImports (% YoY, value) 10.1 9.4 -24.0 28.7 16.3 5.7 2.8 4.9 -1.2 -2.1 8.6 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 87 95 100 120 144 160 175 191 173 174 170 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.5 3.5 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.0 5.1 4.6 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 193 199 193 248 285 349 399 429 420 416 438 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 18.3 17.9 21.5 23.4 24.1 29.0 31.3 32.7 35.9 38.6 38.1 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 71 68 84 83 82 94 105 108 110 111 107 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 25.8 24.2 25.6 43.1 52.7 76.0 92.5 91.9 70.3 53.8 51.8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2.4 2.2 2.8 4.1 4.5 6.3 7.3 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 9.5 8.3 11.1 14.4 15.1 20.5 24.4 23.2 18.5 14.4 12.7 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 29.6 25.4 25.7 35.8 36.6 47.4 52.7 48.1 40.5 31.0 30.4 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 38.0 35.4 31.8 32.7 42.2 70.8 41.6 49.4 54.3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.6 5.9 3.3 3.8 4.6 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 14.0 12.1 13.8 11.0 12.1 19.1 11.0 12.4 14.3 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 43.7 37.2 31.9 27.2 29.3 44.2 23.7 25.9 31.3 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.0 3.3 5.8 7.3 7.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 10.0 16.8 6.7 12.8 16.1 14.5 9.1 12.4 5.7 8.0 -21.8 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 15.0 16.4 18.8 16.8 17.3 16.9 17.0 17.7 17.6 20.7 21.4 23.5 23.8


Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 naStandard & Poor's BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naFitch BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Mexico



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217Figure 217: Credit ratings MDA Figure 218: Consensus forecasts Figure 221: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's B3 Aug-10 (Caa1) = CPI (%) na naS&P - C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch - Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's B3 Aug-10 (Caa1) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P - FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch - Note: Bloomberg Consensus

Figure 219: Selected benchmark issuesAmt. Out Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.

Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 222: Government bond yields (lcl)

XS1175223699DD113180

ED9751675AM3615623

EJ7708872EK5031746



Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 27% Euro area 23%US 2% China 2%China 1% US 0%Japan 1% Japan 0%Other key countries Other key countriesRomania 23% Russia 23% Figure 224: CPI vs policy rateTurkey 9% Romania 18%Russia 8% Ukraine 12%Belarus 6% Turkey 4%UK 3% Poland 3%

Product ProductFood items 44% Other manufactures 29%Other manufactures 34% Machinery and transport 21%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 16% Other machinery/transport 15%Machinery and transport 15% Chemicals 14%Other machinery/transport 14% Food items 14%


Moldova

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MDL vs $ MDL vs EURMoldova REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

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Moldova CPI, % YoY Policy rate (%)

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Moldova 12m auction yield



102

Figure 225: Moldova key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/-/NR EODB Rank: 44 (44) - Strong Corruption Rank: 122 (123) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 41 (40) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.0 7.8 -6.0 7.1 6.8 -0.7 9.4 4.8 -0.4 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.8Investment (% GDP) 38.1 39.2 23.1 23.5 24.2 23.6 24.7 22.6 22.3 22.1 21.7 20.0 21.2Unemployment rate year-end (%) 5.1 4.0 6.4 7.4 6.7 5.6 5.1 3.9 4.9 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 53 63 60 72 82 88 101 112 123 135 150 162 177Nominal GDP ($bn) 4.4 6.1 5.4 5.8 7.0 7.3 8.0 8.0 6.5 6.8 8.1 9.2 9.9Population (mn) 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5GDP per capita ($) 1,232 1,697 1,526 1,633 1,972 2,046 2,244 2,246 1,828 1,907 2,280 2,596 2,796Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 19.7 22.9 21.8 24.1 27.8 33.6 40.1 38.3 39.2 36.1 35.2 na naLending/GDP (%) 36.9 36.5 36.0 33.5 33.8 38.1 39.9 34.1 32.0 26.8 23.5 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.9 23.1 14.9 16.0 12.5 16.9 20.5 18.7 16.6 18.1 17.0 16.3 16.5PricesCPI (average % YoY) 12.4 12.7 0.0 7.4 7.7 4.6 4.6 5.1 9.6 6.4 6.6 4.7 5.1CPI (year-end, % YoY) 13.1 7.3 0.4 8.1 7.8 4.0 5.2 4.7 13.5 2.4 7.3 4.0 6.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 0.1 -0.9 -6.4 -2.6 -2.5 -2.3 -1.9 -1.9 -2.3 -2.1 -1.0 -3.2 -3.8Primary government balance 1.3 0.3 -5.0 -1.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -0.8 0.3 -2.1 -2.6Total public debt (% of GDP) 28.0 22.0 32.4 30.5 29.0 30.9 29.6 36.0 44.8 42.1 37.7 39.8 42.0External indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 1.9 2.0 3 na naImports ($bn) 3 3.7 4.9 3.3 3.9 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.3 4.0 4.0 5 na naTrade balance ($bn) -2.4 -3.3 -2.0 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -3.1 -3.0 -2.1 -2.0 -2.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -53.7 -54.7 -36.7 -39.8 -42.4 -41.9 -38.8 -37.3 -31.7 -29.8 -26.2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.7 -1.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5Current account balance (% of GDP) -15.2 -16.1 -8.2 -7.5 -11.7 -6.7 -4.2 -3.9 -5.7 -4.0 -4.7 -3.7 -4.7Net FDI ($bn) 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 12.3 11.7 3.8 3.6 4.1 2.7 3.0 2.5 3.5 2.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.9 -4.4 -4.4 -3.9 -7.6 -4.0 -1.2 -1.4 -2.2 -1.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 26.5 20.0 -19.1 20.0 43.9 -2.9 10.7 -3.4 -15.8 3.7 27.8 na naImports (% YoY, value) 37.1 32.9 -33.1 17.6 34.7 0.3 5.3 -3.7 -24.3 0.8 16.3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.2 1.8 2.2 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.3 4.1 5.4 5.3 4.5 5.8 6.2 4.9 5.3 6.6 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3.3 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.0 6.9 6.5 6.1 6.2 7.0 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 75 67 80 81 76 82 86 81 94 92 86.3 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 251 257 337 306 242 279 288 282 315 310 271 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.6 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 25.4 22.1 24.4 24.7 23.0 17.1 22.2 17.7 17.6 18.8 19.8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 84 84 103 93 73 58 74 61 59 63 62.3 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 84 80 90 83 82 50 63 66 65 58 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 7.9 8.4 7.2 6.8 6.6 7.9 8.4 7.4 6.6 6.4 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 26.2 31.9 30.3 25.6 21.0 26.6 28.2 25.7 22.0 21.6 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 591 500 484 395 338 314 299 345 374 291 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na na na na na na na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 39.8 15.9 3.2 13.6 10.6 20.8 26.5 5.1 -3.0 10.2 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 16,643 15,286 15,496 16,408 16,340 15,578 16,721 18,647 20,942 22,051 20,900 21,844 22,418


Credit rating history LatestMoody's Caa1 Caa1 WR B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch B- B- NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Moldova



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Morocco 234 MAR 686 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 226: Morocco key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba1/BBB-/BBB- EODB Rank: 69 (68) - Middle Corruption Rank: 81 (90) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 32 (31) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.5 5.9 4.2 3.8 5.2 3.0 4.5 2.7 4.6 1.2 4.2 3.1 4.0 NGDP_RPCH



Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 648 717 748 785 820 848 898 925 988 1,016 1,064 1,108 1,174 NGDP


Population (mn) 31.0 31.4 31.8 32.2 32.6 33.0 33.4 33.8 34.1 34.5 34.9 35.2 35.6 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 462 577 644 715 790 830 858 890 904 958 990 1,030 1,081Lending/GDP (%) 71.4 80.5 86.1 91.2 96.3 97.9 95.6 96.2 91.5 94.2 93.0 92.9 92.1Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 31.4 31.9 29.7 29.7 28.2 25.5 27.0 26.5 28.8 28.8 30.2 31.4 32.0 NGSD_NGDP




Primary government balance 2.8 3.2 0.6 -2.0 -4.4 -4.7 -2.5 -2.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.5 GGXONLB_NGDP






Net FDI ($bn) 2.8 2.5 2.0 1.6 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.2 2.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3.5 2.7 2.1 1.7 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.1 -4.5 -3.3 -2.7 -5.0 -6.6 -4.5 -2.7 1.0 -2.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 18 34 -29 23 25 -5 12 8 -10 8 8 na naImports (% YoY, value) 35 33 -20 8 24 -2 4 2 -19 13 7 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 24.1 22.1 22.8 23.0 19.3 16.2 18.2 19.7 22.3 24.3 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 9.4 6.5 8.4 7.8 5.3 4.5 4.9 5.2 7.2 7.0 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 22 25 25 27 30 34 40 44 44 47 51 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 27 27 27 29 29 35 37 40 43 46 46 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 155 131 189 164 144 174 183 186 207 208 206 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 6 6 2 3 4 4 5 8 7 9 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 6 2 3 4 4 5 7 7 9 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 46 32 17 17 19 21 25 32 32 39 37 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 26 27 10 12 20 26 29 39 31 37 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 5 5 4 4 3 4 5 4 4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 29 22 25 20 16 18 23 20 17 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 17 19 15 14 17 22 28 24 16 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts




Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




104

Mozambique 235 MOZ 688 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 227: Mozambique key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa3/SD/RD EODB Rank: 138 (137) - Weak Corruption Rank: 153 (142) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.4 6.9 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.4 6.6 3.8 3.0 3.0 2.5 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.5 27.2 28.0 28.8 29.5 30.3 31.2 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 28.1 44.0 66.0 83.9 88.9 106.2 136.0 170.2 207.7 237.6 0.0 na 0.0Lending/GDP (%) 11.6 15.8 22.0 24.3 23.3 24.5 28.2 32.0 35.1 34.5 0.0 na 0.0Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 8.3 5.1 4.4 8.1 4.4 14.9 11.5 17.2 5.0 3.4 27.9 37.8 41.7 NGSD_NGDP










Net FDI ($bn) 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 3.6 5.6 6.2 4.9 3.7 3.1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.2 5.1 8.0 9.7 27.1 37.1 38.6 29.1 25.1 27.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -4.1 -4.8 -2.9 -6.3 1.8 -7.6 -4.4 -9.1 -15.3 -11.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 1 10 -19 5 62 -4 19 15 -31 3 66 na naImports (% YoY, value) 6 29 -6 -4 79 -2 66 -14 -10 -33 6 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.0 3.2 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5.6 4.7 6.7 7.1 4.6 5.2 3.6 4.0 3.5 4.4 6.5 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 4 5 6 6 9 10 12 12 13 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 34 29 36 46 43 41 55 58 82 106 100 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 133 127 188 216 156 178 209 204 368 354 226 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2 3 3 5 3 3 5 5 7 6 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 10 11 16 23 11 15 18 17 31 20 1 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 16 19 17 24 17 18 23 27 42 34 1 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 2 1 2 4 2 2 4 4 12 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 3 2 2 4 3 3 5 7 17 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na 8.3 7.5 8.3 23.3 20.5 18.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 24.2 20.3 32.6 24.6 7.8 29.4 16.3 22.2 26.1 10.1 na na na FM2_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - B1 B1 B2 Caa1 Caa1 Caa3 naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B B- CC SD SD naFitch B B B B B B B+ B+ B RD RD RD naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




105

Namibia 236 NAM 728 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 228: Namibia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba1/-/BB+ EODB Rank: 106 (108) - Middle Corruption Rank: 53 (53) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.6 2.7 0.3 6.0 5.1 5.1 5.6 6.4 6.0 1.1 -1.2 1.2 3.3 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 32.7 35.7 39.1 43.3 46.2 54.1 61.5 73.1 84.9 92.0 96.5 na naLending/GDP (%) 53.2 50.9 52.0 52.4 51.3 50.6 50.1 52.7 57.5 57.1 57.1 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 33.0 32.2 23.2 19.4 15.9 19.9 17.2 24.1 20.3 11.5 21.3 19.9 18.6 NGSD_NGDP




Primary government balance 7.9 5.0 0.9 -3.5 -5.8 -1.0 -1.9 -4.6 -6.6 -6.7 -3.3 -4.4 -5.7 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -1.5 -2.8 -3.2 -2.2 -0.5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 0.3 0.6 -5.0 -3.6 -6.6 -15.5 -11.8 -22.0 -27.8 -20.2 -3.6 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0.7 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 8.6 -0.1 -1.5 -3.5 -3.0 -5.7 -4.0 -10.8 -12.6 -14.1 -1.4 -3.6 -5.1 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.4 1.1 0.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 8.4 8.5 5.7 7.0 9.0 8.7 6.3 3.4 9.3 2.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 17.0 8.4 4.2 3.6 6.0 3.0 2.3 -7.4 -3.3 -11.6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 19 17 22 -3 1 -9 19 -6 -22 1 30 na naImports (% YoY, value) 44 16 32 -4 8 10 6 13 -10 -13 -6 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 0.9 1.3 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.4 na naImport cover (months of imports) 2.7 3.3 4.0 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.4 1.7 2.6 3.3 4.6 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 4 3 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 19 23 26 15 22 23 17 19 33 36 24 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 41 41 41 30 48 57 36 42 85 88 51 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 6 6 3 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 8 11 10 6 6 7 2 4 6 6 7 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 34 42 27 19 18 20 9 20 15 16 17 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 6.8 6.8 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 16.1 13.3 59.6 8.7 11.6 6.0 13.7 6.9 10.2 4.9 9.5 na na FM2_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Ba1 Ba1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




106

229Figure 229: Credit ratings NGA Figure 230: Consensus forecasts Figure 233: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 2.5 3.1Moody's B2 Nov-17 (Ba3) = CPI (%) 13.3 10.8S&P B Sep-16 (B+) = C/A bal. (% GDP) 1.1 1.0Fitch B+ Jun-16 (BB-) – Fiscal bal (%GDP) -2.8 -2.9Local currencyMoody's B2 Nov-17 (Ba3) = FX vs $, YE 380 452S&P B Sep-16 (B+) = FX vs EUR, YE 479 588Fitch B+ Jul-16 (BB-) – Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 234: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$NGERIA 6 3/4 01/28/21 500 105.43 6.75 2.5 4.6 179.6 EI5488180NGERIA 6 3/8 07/12/23 500 104.67 6.38 4.3 5.3 240.3 EJ7435922NGERIA 6 1/2 11/28/27 1,500 101.33 6.50 6.9 6.3 330.4 AQ1229329NGERIA 7.143 02/23/30 1,250 102.95 7.14 7.9 6.8 374.1 AR3678794NGERIA 7 7/8 02/16/32 1,500 108.54 7.88 8.5 6.9 385.7 AM4670155NGERIA 7.696 02/23/38 1,250 103.70 7.70 10.1 7.3 427.1 AR3678802NGERIA 7 5/8 11/28/47 1,500 101.80 7.63 11.5 7.5 441.9 AQ1229378LclNIGB 16.2884 03/17/27 608,390 117.59 16.29 4.9 12.9 1289.4 AM6771506NIGB 16.2499 04/18/37 402,040 123.69 16.25 6.8 12.9 2133.3 AN1325538Corporate$ACCESS 10 ½ 10/19/21 300 112.07 10.50 2.9 6.6 369.1 QZ8982246Figure 235: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)DIAMBK 8 ¾ 05/21/19 200 99.19 8.75 1.0 9.6 700.2 EK2772193ZENITH 6 ¼ 04/22/19 672 97.23 6.00 3.8 6.7 381.1 EJ4199208GRTBNL 6 11/08/18 277 101.22 6.00 0.5 3.6 117.6 EJ9177639


Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 28% China 26%Japan 5% EU 18%US 3% US 6%China 2% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 17% India 4% Figure 236: CPI vs policy rateBrazil 8% UK 3%South Africa 6% UAE 3%Ivory Coast 4% Hong Kong 2%Ghana 4% Brazil 1%

Product ProductFuels 89% Machinery and transport 38%Food items 4% Other machinery/transport 30%Other manufactures 2% Other manufactures 20%Agricultural raw materials 1% Food items 15%Machinery and transport 1% Chemicals 12%


Nigeria

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Figure 237: Nigeria key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B/B+ EODB Rank: 145 (169) - Weak Corruption Rank: 148 (136) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 13 (11) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 5.3 4.2 5.5 6.2 2.8 -1.6 0.8 2.9 3.0Private consumption (%YoY) 2.6 0.3 29.3Government consumption (%YoY) 4.6 -2.0 1.4Investment (%YoY) -29.8 1.9 10.5Oil production (mbd YE) 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9Nominal GDP (NGNtn) 31.4 37.8 39.6 55.5 63.7 72.6 81.0 90.1 95.2 102.6 114.9 140.3 154.6Nominal GDP (€bn) 182 216 189 277 293 359 382 415 431 362 313 327 348Nominal GDP ($bn) 249 317 264 367 408 462 508 546 481 399 349 392 429Population (mn) 144 148 152 156 160 165 169 174 179 184 189 194 199GDP per capita ($) 1,734 2,148 1,739 2,354 2,547 2,803 3,001 3,136 2,693 2,171 1,852 2,022 2,155Gross national saving (% of GDP) 30.6 25.3 26.8 21.2 19.2 19.3 18.8 16.0 12.3 13.2 14.9 14.4 14.6Bank credit to private sector (lcl tn) 5.1 8.1 10.2 9.7 14.2 15.2 16.2 18.1 18.7 23.0 23.3 25.7 28.8Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 16.1 21.3 25.7 17.5 22.3 20.9 20.0 20.1 19.7 22.4 20.3 18.3 18.6Loan to deposit ratio 70.9 94.7 100.8 86.7 79.3 73.3 69.1 72.1 71.0 72.0 70.0 71.0 71.5PricesCPI (average %YoY) 5.4 11.5 12.6 13.7 10.8 12.2 8.5 8.4 8.2 15.6 16.6 12.1 11.3CPI (end-year %YoY) 6.6 15.1 13.9 11.8 10.9 12.0 8.0 8.1 9.6 18.6 15.4 10.8 11.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Federal government balance 54 -0.3 0.6 -1.9 -2.5 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4 -0.9 -2.5 -2.8 -4.3 -3.4 -3.0Total public debt 22 8.5 7.5 9.6 9.6 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.6 11.5 14.3 20.0 20.5 21.0External balanceExports ($bn) 54.8 86.3 56.8 78.5 97.2 94.3 95.1 82.6 45.9 34.7 45.8 47.0 50.0Imports ($bn) 32.7 40.1 31.1 46.8 62.2 53.4 51.4 61.6 52.3 35.2 32.7 32.3 41.2Trade balance ($bn) 22.1 46.2 25.7 31.8 35.0 40.9 43.8 21.0 -6.4 -0.5 13.1 14.7 8.8Trade balance (% of GDP) 8.9 14.6 9.7 8.6 13.5 8.9 8.6 3.8 -1.3 -0.1 3.8 3.8 2.0Current account balance ($bn) 31.1 32.6 14.0 14.6 12.7 18.9 20.1 1.3 -15.4 2.7 10.4 12.8 8.0Current account balance (% of GDP) 12.5 10.3 5.3 4.0 3.1 4.1 4.0 0.2 -3.2 0.7 3.0 3.3 1.9Net FDI ($bn) 6.0 5.5 7.1 5.2 8.1 8.1 4.4 3.1 1.6 3.1 2.2 2.4 2.5Net FDI (% of GDP) 2.4 1.7 2.7 1.4 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 14.9 12.0 8.0 5.4 5.1 5.8 4.8 0.8 -2.9 1.5 3.6 3.9 2.4Exports (%YoY, value) -6.8 57.5 -34.2 38.3 23.7 -2.9 0.8 -13.2 -44.4 -24.4 32.0 2.7 6.3Imports (%YoY, value) 43.6 22.7 -22.4 50.3 32.9 -14.1 -3.8 19.9 -15.0 -32.7 -7.3 -1.0 27.4FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 51.3 53.0 44.8 32.3 32.4 44.2 43.6 34.5 29.1 25.8 38.7 52.0 55.0Import cover (months of imports) 18.9 15.9 17.3 8.3 6.3 9.9 10.2 6.7 6.7 8.8 14.2 19.3 16.0Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 3.9 4.1 4.5 5.6 5.9 6.5 8.9 11.5 47.2 44.5 53.5 58.0 60.0Gross external debt (% of GDP) 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.1 9.8 11.2 15.3 14.8 14.0Gross external debt (% of exports) 7.0 4.8 8.0 7.2 6.0 6.9 9.3 13.9 102.9 128.2 116.8 123.3 120.0Total debt service ($bn) 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.8Total debt service (% of GDP) 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7Total debt service (% of exports) 1.8 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 5.0 5.9 5.2 6.1 7.1Interest & exchange ratesMonetary policy rate (MPR), %YE 9.5 9.8 6.0 6.3 12.0 12.0 12.0 13.0 13.0 14.0 14.0 12.0 12.0Broad money supply (%YoY) 58.1 58.0 17.1 7.1 15.8 12.0 14.7 16.0 18.2 16.0 1.7 4.0 8.0Credit to the private sector (%YoY) 97.1 59.4 26.0 -4.4 46.2 6.8 6.9 11.9 3.3 23.0 1.4 10.0 12.05Y yield (%YE) 9.5 10.5 9.4 12.0 11.2 11.8 13.5 13.8 13.1 13.3 16.0 15.5 15.0Exchange rate (NGN/EUR) year-end 172 195 214 203 206 206 221 222 219 332 392 434 450Exchange rate (NGN/EUR) annual average 172 175 209 200 217 202 212 217 221 283 367 430 445Exchange rate, NGN/$) year-end 118 140 150 152 159 156 160 183 199 315 332 356 360Exchange rate (NGN/$) annual average 126 119 150 151 156 157 159 165 198 257 329 358 360Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 B1 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ BB- BB- BB- B+ B B B naFitch BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ na

Source: IMF, World Bank, national statistics agency, central bank, Renaissance Capital estimates

Nigeria



108

Oman 238 OMN 449 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 238: Oman key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BB/BBB- EODB Rank: 71 (66) - Middle Corruption Rank: 68 (64) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.5 8.2 6.1 4.8 -1.1 9.3 4.4 2.8 4.7 1.8 -0.3 2.1 4.2 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 LP





Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 12.0 16.8 -0.3 5.5 9.4 4.6 4.7 -1.1 -15.9 -21.3 -11.4 -5.7 -4.9 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 10.5 15.6 -1.3 4.6 8.9 3.3 2.6 -2.1 -16.1 -21.8 -11.7 -5.3 -4.5 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) 8.7 14.7 9.8 16.8 23.4 24.0 22.1 23.9 5.7 3.7 -1.6 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 20.6 24.2 20.2 28.6 34.5 31.3 28.0 29.5 8.3 5.5 -2.2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 2.5 5.0 -0.5 4.9 8.8 7.8 5.2 4.2 -11.0 -12.3 -8.6 -5.1 -5.1 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 5.8 8.2 -1.0 8.3 13.0 10.2 6.6 5.2 -15.9 -18.4 -11.5 -6.2 -6.0 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 3.3 3.0 1.5 1.2 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 7.9 4.8 3.1 2.1 2.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 13.8 13.1 2.0 10.4 15.6 11.3 7.7 6.1 -14.7 -18.2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 14 53 -27 32 29 11 8 -6 -35 -23 12 na naImports (% YoY, value) 47 44 -22 11 19 19 22 -15 -1 -20 37 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 9.5 11.6 12.2 13.0 14.4 14.4 16.0 16.3 17.5 20.3 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.2 6.1 8.2 7.9 7.3 6.1 5.6 6.7 7.3 10.5 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 17 19 16 18 18 20 19 19 23 40 49 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 41 31 32 31 27 26 25 24 33 60 67 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 71 49 56 50 39 38 34 36 65 149 165 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 3 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 14 13 13 12 10 9 9 7 11 19 23 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 35 41 30 35 32 31 31 23 23 25 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 2.1 2.4 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 37.0 23.3 4.7 11.3 12.2 10.7 8.5 16.3 10.0 1.8 4.2 na na FM2_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's WR WR WR WR WR WR WR WR WR Baa1 Baa1 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's A A A A A A A A BBB+ BBB- BB BB naFitch - - - - - - - - - - BBB- BBB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg, Renaissance CapitalSource: IMF, World Bank, national statistics agency, central bank, Renaissance Capital estimates



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Pakistan 239 PAK 564 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 239: Pakistan key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B/B EODB Rank: 147 (144) - Weak Corruption Rank: 117 (116) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 13 (13) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.5 5.0 0.4 2.6 3.6 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.5 5.3 5.6 4.7 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 158 165 168 172 175 179 183 186 190 194 197 201 205 LP

GDP per capita ($) 963 1,038 998 1,032 1,218 1,254 1,267 1,312 1,425 1,441 1,541 1,604 1,588 NGDPDPC









Trade balance ($bn) -14.8 -22.1 -14.1 -16.1 -18.1 -19.0 -18.6 -22.8 -21.9 -26.5 -37.8 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -9.7 -12.9 -8.4 -9.1 -8.5 -8.5 -8.0 -9.3 -8.1 -9.5 -12.4 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -6.9 -13.9 -9.3 -3.9 0.2 -4.7 -2.5 -3.1 -2.7 -4.9 -12.4 -15.5 -14.2 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -8.1 -5.5 -2.2 0.1 -2.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.0 -1.7 -4.1 -4.8 -4.4 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 5.6 5.4 2.3 2.0 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.9 2.0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3.7 3.2 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.7 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -0.8 -4.9 -4.1 -1.1 0.6 -1.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 5 14 -13 23 18 -3 2 -2 -10 -7 -2 na naImports (% YoY, value) 9 30 -25 19 16 1 0 9 -7 7 23 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 14.0 7.2 11.3 14.3 14.5 10.2 5.2 11.8 17.8 19.7 15.8 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5.2 2.0 4.3 4.6 4.0 2.8 1.4 3.0 4.9 5.0 3.3 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 38 38 68 65 66 65 61 66 68 74 77 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 25 22 40 36 31 29 26 27 25 26 26 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 215 186 387 300 261 265 246 262 282 335 383 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 0 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 7 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 3 0 21 19 13 15 18 22 29 35 2 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 4 0 32 29 22 37 88 46 36 36 2 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 3 3 3 4 3 5 7 5 4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 15 15 20 20 12 20 28 19 17 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 19 42 31 30 20 48 134 40 21 na na na naCurrency and monetary policyKey policy rate (% YE) na 15.0 12.5 14.0 12.0 9.5 10.0 9.5 6.0 5.8 5.8 6.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 19.7 5.7 14.7 15.0 15.9 20.9 15.9 12.5 12.2 12.5 12.2 na na FM2_XDC

Exchange rate (€) annual average 79 92 108 117 117 120 125 140 122 116 114.2 124.4 138.7

Exchange rate ($) annual average 61 63 79 84 86 89 97 103 101 104 104.8 105.5 114.6

Credit rating history LatestMoody's B1 B3 B3 B3 B3 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 B3 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's B+ CCC+ B- B- B- B- B- B- B- B B B naFitch - - - - - - - - B B B B naNote: 2017-19E exchange rate forecasts from Renaissance Capital




110

Peru 240 PER 293 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 240: Peru key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A3/BBB+/BBB+ EODB Rank: 58 (54) - Middle Corruption Rank: 96 (101) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 39 (36) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.5 9.1 1.0 8.5 6.5 6.0 5.8 2.4 3.3 4.1 2.5 3.7 4.0 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.5 31.8 32.2 32.5 LP





Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 3.3 2.7 -1.4 0.1 2.0 2.1 0.7 -0.3 -2.2 -2.3 -3.1 -3.3 -2.7 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 5.2 4.1 -0.3 1.2 3.1 3.0 1.7 0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -2.0 -2.2 -1.6 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) 7.0 1.3 3.4 3.0 5.6 0.3 -4.4 -6.5 -7.0 -0.7 3.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 6.9 1.1 2.8 2.0 3.3 0.2 -2.2 -3.2 -3.6 -0.3 1.4 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 1.5 -5.3 -0.6 -3.6 -3.0 -5.4 -9.4 -8.9 -9.2 -5.3 -2.7 -1.6 -2.8 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.5 -4.3 -0.5 -2.4 -1.8 -2.9 -4.7 -4.4 -4.8 -2.7 -1.3 -0.7 -1.1 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 5.5 6.9 6.4 8.5 7.7 11.9 9.3 7.9 6.9 6.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.4 5.7 5.3 5.7 4.5 6.3 4.7 3.9 3.6 3.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 6.9 1.3 4.8 3.3 2.8 3.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.2 0.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 19 13 -15 32 31 -1 -8 -8 -14 12 21 na naImports (% YoY, value) 32 45 -23 38 26 12 3 -3 -10 -6 11 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 26.9 30.3 32.0 42.6 47.2 62.3 64.4 61.2 60.4 60.5 62.4 na naImport cover (months of imports) 15.7 12.1 16.6 16.0 14.1 16.6 16.7 16.4 18.0 19.3 17.9 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 33 35 37 42 45 54 57 61 66 70 68 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 32 29 30 28 27 29 29 30 34 36 31 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 120 112 138 119 98 119 135 160 199 188 151 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 6 6 5 6 6 9 6 7 7 8 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 6 5 4 4 4 5 3 3 4 4 4 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 23 21 18 18 14 20 15 18 21 21 19 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 23 21 15 15 13 14 10 11 12 13 14 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 9 5 4 7 4 6 7 5 5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 9 4 4 5 2 3 3 2 2 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 33 17 16 19 9 13 16 13 14 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 34 17 13 16 9 9 10 8 8 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 1.3 3.0 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.8 4.3 3.3 2.8 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 23.7 25.5 5.2 22.6 11.9 14.4 17.6 5.3 13.0 1.7 7.9 na na over3



Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naFitch BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




111

Philippines 241 PHL 566 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 241: Philippines key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/BBB/BBB EODB Rank: 113 (99) - Middle Corruption Rank: 111 (101) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 36 (40) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.6 4.2 1.1 7.6 3.7 6.7 7.1 6.1 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.8 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 89 89 91 93 94 97 98 100 102 103 105 107 110 LP





Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.3 0.0 -2.7 -2.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.9 0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 3.4 3.4 0.6 0.7 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) -5.0 -11.3 -6.7 -8.8 -18.1 -15.9 -14.0 -9.2 -14.7 -35.3 -29.6 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -6.5 -3.9 -4.4 -8.1 -6.4 -5.2 -3.2 -5.0 -11.6 -9.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 8.1 0.1 8.4 7.2 5.6 6.9 11.4 10.8 7.3 -1.0 -1.2 -1.8 -2.0 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 5.4 0.1 5.0 3.6 2.5 2.8 4.2 3.8 2.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 2.9 1.5 2.0 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.4 6.8 5.2 7.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.0 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 2.4 1.8 2.6 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 7.4 1.0 6.2 4.2 3.3 3.8 5.1 6.2 4.3 2.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 7 -3 -20 31 -7 8 4 14 -5 -4 12 na naImports (% YoY, value) 8 9 -24 31 10 3 0 4 3 25 1 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 30.2 33.2 38.8 55.4 67.3 73.5 75.7 72.1 74.0 73.4 73.2 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.5 6.6 10.1 11.0 12.2 13.0 13.4 12.2 12.1 9.6 9.5 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 95 86 106 60 60 60 59 78 77 75 73 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 64 50 63 30 27 24 22 27 26 25 23 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 189 176 271 117 126 116 108 126 132 133 116 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 16 10 15 6 7 8 11 16 15 15 14 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 11 6 9 3 3 3 4 6 5 5 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 31 21 38 12 15 16 21 26 26 26 23 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 52 31 38 11 10 12 15 23 20 20 19 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 8 10 9 11 10 6 6 6 8 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 6 6 5 6 4 2 2 2 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 16 21 23 22 20 11 11 10 14 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 27 31 23 21 14 8 8 8 11 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na 5.5 4.0 4.0 4.5 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 4.1 33.1 8.4 8.9 4.3 8.5 30.7 12.4 9.2 13.0 11.8 na na FM4_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's B1 B1 Ba3 Ba3 Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB BB BB+ BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB naFitch BB BB BB BB BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




112

Poland 242 POL 964 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 242: Poland key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A2/BBB+/A- EODB Rank: 27 (24) - Strong Corruption Rank: 36 (29) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 90 (87) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.0 4.3 2.8 3.6 5.0 1.6 1.4 3.3 3.8 2.9 4.6 4.1 3.5 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.0 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 506 706 730 790 911 936 969 1,054 1,115 1,155 1,192 1,252 1,339Lending/GDP (%) 42.6 54.9 53.2 54.6 58.2 57.4 58.5 61.3 62.0 62.1 60.1 60.0 60.7Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 18.8 17.9 16.5 15.9 17.3 17.3 17.7 18.3 19.9 19.3 20.0 20.2 20.4 NGSD_NGDP








Trade balance ($bn) -25.7 -38.3 -12.9 -18.3 -22.0 -13.8 -2.6 -3.5 2.7 5.2 0.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -6.0 -7.2 -2.9 -3.8 -4.2 -2.7 -0.5 -0.6 0.6 1.1 0.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -27.4 -35.8 -17.9 -25.9 -27.4 -18.6 -6.7 -11.4 -2.7 -1.4 0.2 -5.4 -7.9 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.4 -6.7 -4.1 -5.4 -5.2 -3.7 -1.3 -2.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 -0.9 -1.2 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 19.8 12.3 10.0 12.8 15.9 12.4 3.6 12.5 7.5 11.4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 4.6 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.0 2.5 0.7 2.3 1.6 2.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1.8 -4.4 -1.8 -2.7 -2.2 -1.2 -0.6 0.2 1.0 2.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 27 22 -20 17 18 -2 11 7 -10 2 14 na naImports (% YoY, value) 31 26 -29 19 18 -5 4 8 -12 0 17 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 63.0 59.3 75.9 88.8 92.6 103.4 102.2 96.5 91.4 110.5 109.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.5 3.4 6.1 6.0 5.3 6.2 5.9 5.2 5.6 6.7 5.7 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 233 245 280 317 324 369 384 357 331 338 379 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 54 46 64 66 61 74 73 65 69 72 72 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 166 144 205 199 172 199 187 162 166 167 164 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 45 51 54 48 45 42 46 38 37 52 51 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 10 12 10 8 8 9 7 8 11 10 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 32 30 40 30 24 23 23 17 18 26 22 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 71 86 71 55 48 41 45 39 40 47 46 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 3.5 3.5 4.5 4.3 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 13.4 18.6 8.1 8.8 12.5 4.5 6.2 8.2 9.1 9.5 4.6 na na FM3_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 naStandard & Poor's A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naFitch A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




113

Qatar 243 QAT 453 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 243: Qatar key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa3/AA-/AA- EODB Rank: 83 (83) - Middle Corruption Rank: 29 (31) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 18.0 17.7 12.0 18.1 13.4 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.6 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.7 NGDP_RPCH

Investment (% GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na na NID_NGDP




Population (mn) 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 LP



PricesCPI (average % YoY) 13.7 15.1 -4.9 -2.4 2.0 1.8 3.2 3.4 1.8 2.7 0.4 3.9 3.5 PCPIPCH

CPI (year-end, % YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na na PCPIEPCH

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 10.5 9.9 14.9 6.7 7.5 11.2 22.7 15.3 5.3 -4.7 -1.6 2.8 7.5 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 11.2 10.4 16.0 7.9 9.0 12.7 24.0 16.4 6.8 -3.2 -0.3 4.4 9.2 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) 21.0 39.5 20.5 52.1 92.6 107.6 106.8 96.9 45.0 24.6 33.1 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 26.4 34.2 21.0 41.6 55.2 57.6 53.7 47.0 27.3 16.1 19.9 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 11.5 26.6 6.4 24.0 52.1 62.0 60.5 49.4 13.8 -8.3 2.1 4.7 3.5 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 14.4 23.1 6.5 19.1 31.1 33.2 30.4 24.0 8.4 -5.5 1.3 2.5 1.8 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 4.7 3.8 8.1 4.7 0.9 0.4 -0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.9 3.3 8.3 3.7 0.6 0.2 -0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 20.3 26.3 14.8 22.9 31.6 33.4 30.0 24.5 9.0 -5.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 31 51 -34 68 53 15 0 -5 -39 -26 12 na naImports (% YoY, value) 43 19 -14 -6 -3 12 5 14 8 2 -4 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 9.4 9.6 18.4 30.6 16.2 32.5 41.6 42.7 36.5 30.8 13.8 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.8 4.2 9.2 16.4 9.0 16.0 19.4 17.4 13.8 11.5 5.4 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 66 82 92 105 117 114 105 108 117 133 118 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 83 72 94 84 70 61 53 52 71 87 71 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 149 123 208 140 102 86 79 86 153 234 184 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 16 21 21 21 29 24 24 31 34 40 43 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 20 18 21 17 17 13 12 15 21 26 26 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 35 31 47 29 26 18 18 25 44 71 68 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 166 218 114 70 180 73 57 73 93 130 314 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 5.6 5.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 35.6 21.9 13.0 22.9 27.5 22.2 30.4 3.7 -4.1 -2.9 25.3 na na FM3_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa3 Aa3 naStandard & Poor's AA- AA- AA- AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA- AA- naFitch AA AA AA- AA- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




114

Romania 244 ROU 968 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 244: Romania key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BBB-/BBB- EODB Rank: 45 (36) - Strong Corruption Rank: 59 (57) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 82 (75) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.9 8.3 -5.9 -2.8 2.0 1.2 3.5 3.1 4.0 4.8 7.0 5.1 3.5 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 21.1 20.6 20.4 20.3 20.2 20.1 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.4 LP




CPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.6 6.3 4.8 8.0 3.1 5.0 1.6 0.8 -0.9 -0.5 3.3 3.5 3.2 PCPIEPCH








Net FDI ($bn) 9.7 13.5 4.7 3.0 2.4 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.4 4.6 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.5 6.3 2.7 1.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -7.9 -5.3 -2.0 -3.3 -3.7 -2.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 25 23 -18 22 27 -8 14 6 -13 5 11 na naImports (% YoY, value) 37 20 -35 14 23 -8 5 6 -10 7 15 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 37.2 36.9 40.8 43.4 42.9 41.2 44.8 39.2 35.2 36.1 40.1 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.3 5.2 9.0 8.4 6.7 7.0 7.3 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.6 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 65 100 119 125 129 133 135 115 98 98 110 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 37 47 69 75 70 77 71 58 55 52 52 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 160 202 292 253 205 230 205 165 162 154 156 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 57 26 16 17 19 16 16 12 12 12 14 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 32 12 9 10 11 10 8 6 7 7 7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 141 51 39 35 31 28 24 18 21 19 20 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 153 69 39 40 45 40 35 31 35 34 36 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 12 18 16 18 19 21 29 25 24 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 7 8 9 11 10 12 15 12 13 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 29 36 40 37 30 36 44 35 39 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 31 49 40 43 44 51 64 63 67 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 8.0 6.3 6.0 5.3 4.0 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) na 17.5 9.0 6.8 6.5 2.8 8.8 8.4 9.3 9.8 11.6 na na FM3_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BBB BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




115

245Figure 245: Credit ratings RUS Figure 246: Consensus forecasts Figure 249: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 1.8 1.8Moody's Ba1 Apr-16 (Ba1) + CPI (%) 3.0 4.0S&P BBB- Feb-18 (BB+) = C/A bal. (% GDP) 3.0 2.5Fitch BBB- Jan-15 (BBB) + Fiscal bal (%GDP) 0.1 -0.1Local currencyMoody's Ba1 Apr-16 (Ba1) + FX vs $, YE 58.7 60.4S&P BBB Feb-18 (BBB) = FX vs EUR, YE 73.9 78.5Fitch BBB- Jan-15 (BBB) + Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 250: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$RUSSIA 4 7/8 09/16/23 3,000 103.51 4.88 4.7 4.1 120.7 EJ8270005RUSSIA 4 1/4 06/23/27 2,405 97.31 4.25 7.4 4.6 162.3 AO0619137RUSSIA 5 1/4 06/23/47 7,000 96.42 5.25 14.3 5.5 246.0 AO0617065LocalRFLB 8.15 02/03/27 350,000 106.59 8.15 6.0 7.3 -18.0 EJ037061RFLB 7.05 01/19/28 350,000 99.36 7.05 6.6 7.3 -43.4 EJ525789RFLB 8 1/2 09/17/31 250,000 110.40 8.50 7.9 7.4 4.7 QJ407522Corporate$GAZPRU 4.95 07/19/22 1,000 101.14 4.95 3.7 4.6 174.5 EJ2812257GAZPRU 4.95 03/23/27 750 98.42 4.95 7.1 5.2 218.6 AM7840284SBERRU 6 1/8 02/07/22 1,500 104.58 6.13 3.3 4.8 189.4 EJ0082440CHMFRU 5.9 10/17/22 634 103.74 5.90 3.9 5.0 204.5 EJ3930470Figure 251: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)RURAIL 4 3/8 03/01/24 500 98.35 4.38 5.0 4.7 175.6 AM5297909Local QZ7612422RURAIL 9.2 10/07/23 15,000 107.58 9.20 4.3 7.5 6.3 QZ7612422


Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 39% EU 29%China 8% China 19%Japan 4% US 6%US 3% Japan 4%Other key countries Other key countriesTurkey 6% Belarus 5% Figure 252: CPI vs policy rateBelarus 4% Ukraine 3%Korea 4% Kazakhstan 3%Kazakhstan 3% Korea 2%Poland 3% Poland 2%

Product ProductFuels 53% Machinery and transport 41%Other manufactures 13% Other machinery/transport 31%Machinery and transport 8% Other manufactures 28%Iron and steel 7% Food items 13%Chemicals 7% Chemicals 13%


Russia

1

3

5

7

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

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l-11

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l-12

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l-16

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18

Russia 2027 $ bond Russia generic 10y $ yieldUS generic 10y YtM

60

70

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90

100

110

1202030405060708090

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

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l-11

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RUB vs $ RUB vs EURRussia REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

Weaker

Stronger

3

6

9

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21

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18

Russia 3M yield index Russia 2Y yield indexRussia 5Y yield index Russia 10Y yield index

2468

1012141618

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Russia CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



116

Figure 253: Russia key economic indicators - Renaissance Capital forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba1/BBB-/BBB- EODB Rank: 35 (40) - Strong Corruption Rank: 135 (131) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 50 (56) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.5 5.2 -7.8 4.5 4.3 3.5 1.3 0.7 -2.8 -0.2 1.5 2.0 1.9Private consumption (% YoY) 14.3 10.6 -5.1 5.1 6.8 7.9 5.2 2.0 -9.4 -2.8 3.4 3.8 3.6Government consumption (% YoY) 2.7 3.4 -0.6 -1.5 1.4 2.6 0.9 -2.1 -3.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2Investment (% YoY) 21.0 10.6 -14.4 5.9 9.1 5.0 1.3 -1.8 -11.2 0.8 4.3 3.3 3.4Industrial production (% YoY) 6.8 0.8 -9.2 8.3 4.8 2.5 0.3 1.7 -3.4 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.8Unemployment rate (% YoY) 6.1 6.3 8.4 7.5 6.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.8 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.8Nominal GDP (RUBtn) 33.2 41.3 38.8 46.3 56.0 66.9 71.1 79.2 83.4 86.1 92.0 99.6 103.7Nominal GDP ($bn) 1,299 1,658 1,224 1,523 1,904 2,159 2,227 2,052 1,358 1,287 1,579 1,685 1,668Population (mn) 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 144 147 147 147 148 148GDP per capita ($) 9,095 11,617 8,567 10,660 13,312 15,066 15,544 14,278 9,251 8,748 10,710 11,408 11,275Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 29.3 28.8 19.4 24.4 29.1 28.0 25.1 25.0 27.2 27.3 26.6 27.5 27.9Bank credit to private sector (lcl tn) 12.5 16.9 16.5 18.6 24.0 27.7 32.5 40.9 44.0 45.1 49.0 51.9 55.5Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 37.6 40.8 42.4 40.2 42.8 41.4 45.7 51.6 52.7 52.3 53.2 52.1 53.5Deposits (RUBtn) 11.9 14.4 16.8 20.7 25.6 29.6 34.3 43.0 51.1 54.1 59.8 64.6 69.8Loan-to-deposit ratio 105.2 117.3 97.9 89.9 93.7 93.7 94.6 95.0 86.0 83.3 81.8 80.3 79.6PricesCPI (average % YoY) 9.0 14.1 11.7 6.9 8.4 5.1 6.8 7.8 15.6 7.1 3.7 3.2 3.8CPI (end-year % YoY) 11.9 13.3 8.8 8.8 6.1 6.6 6.5 11.4 12.9 5.4 2.5 3.8 4.0Nominal wages (monthly), RUB 13,593 17,290 18,639 20,950 23,532 26,803 29,729 32,611 34,274 36,845 39,144 42,824 45,864Wage rates (% YoY, nominal) 27.8 27.2 7.8 12.4 12.2 13.9 12.8 9.5 5.1 7.5 7.3 9.4 7.1Fiscal balance Consolidated government balance 5.4 4.1 -5.9 -3.5 1.6 0.0 -0.8 -0.5 -2.6 -3.4 -1.4 0.8 0.7Total public debt (% of GDP) 7.1 5.2 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.0 11.4 14.4 14.6 16.1 15.7 16.7 17.6External balanceExports ($bn) 354 472 303 401 522 528 523 494 342 282 354 392 369Imports ($bn) 223 292 192 249 324 336 341 308 193 192 238 256 258Trade balance ($bn) 131 180 111 152 198 192 182 186 149 90 116 136 111Trade balance (% of GDP) 10.1 10.9 9.1 10.0 10.4 8.9 8.2 9.0 10.9 7.0 7.3 8.1 6.6Current account balance ($bn) 77.8 103.5 48.6 70.3 98.8 71.4 34.1 58.4 69.0 25.5 40.2 65.1 45.4Current account balance (% of GDP) 6.0 6.2 4.0 4.6 5.2 3.3 1.5 2.8 5.1 2.0 2.5 3.9 2.7Gross FDI ($bn) 55.9 74.8 36.6 43.1 55.1 50.6 79.3 18.5 5.9 30.9 23.2 15.0 15.0Gross FDI (% of GDP) 4.3 4.5 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.3 3.6 0.9 0.4 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.9C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 10.3 10.8 7.0 7.4 8.1 5.7 5.1 3.7 5.5 4.4 4.0 4.8 3.6Exports (% YoY, value) 16 33 -36 32 30 1 -1 -6 -31 -17 25 11 -6Imports (% YoY, value) 36 31 -34 30 30 4 2 -10 -37 -1 24 8 1Foreign exchange reserves ($bn) 479 427 439 479 499 538 430 385 368 378 433 492 522Import cover (months of imports) 25.8 17.5 27.4 23.1 18.5 19.2 15.1 15.0 22.9 23.6 21.8 23.1 24.3Debt indicatorsGross external debt year-end ($bn) 464 481 467 483 545 636 729 594 515 519 529 511 499Gross external debt (% of GDP) 36 29 38 32 29 29 33 29 38 40 34 34 34Gross external debt (% of exports) 131 102 154 121 104 111 139 120 151 184 150 130 135Total debt service ($bn) 107 148 87 100 109 128 143 130 102 92 86 81 76Total debt service (% of GDP) 8 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 8 7 5 5 5Total debt service (% of exports) 30 31 29 25 21 24 27 26 30 33 24 21 21Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (% YoY) 43.5 0.8 17.7 31.1 22.3 11.9 14.6 2.2 11.4 9.2 9.5 10.5 10.0Refinancing rate year-end (%) 10.0 13.0 8.8 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 10.0 7.8 6.8 6.8Exchange rate (RUB/$) year-end 24.5 29.4 30.2 30.5 32.1 30.5 32.7 56.2 72.9 61.5 57.6 61.5 63.0Exchange rate (RUB/$) annual average 25.6 24.9 31.7 30.4 29.4 31.0 31.9 38.6 61.4 67.0 58.3 59.1 62.2Exchange rate (RUB/€) year-end 35.9 42.7 43.3 40.8 41.7 40.3 44.9 68.4 79.6 64.7 68.9 77.5 81.9Exchange rate (RUB/€) annual average 35.0 36.5 44.1 40.3 40.9 39.9 42.4 50.9 68.1 74.1 65.9 73.3 80.9Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa2 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 naStandard & Poor's BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- naFitch BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- na

Source: Rosstat, CBR, MinFin, Bloomberg, IMF, World Bank, Renaissance Capital estimates

Russia



117

Rwanda 246 RWA 714 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 254: Rwanda key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B/B+ EODB Rank: 41 (56) - Strong Corruption Rank: 48 (50) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 7.6 11.2 6.2 6.3 7.5 8.9 4.7 7.0 6.9 5.5 5.0 6.0 6.5Private consumption (%YoY) -10.5 24.0 8.0 7.5 9.3 7.3 3.8 4.8 14.5 1.0 3.0 3.5 4.0Government consumption (%YoY) 2.3 2.5 4.0 4.8 13.5 19.8 -0.3 15.5 -12.8 21.0 15.0 15.0 16.0Investment (%YoY) 27.8 31.5 5.3 7.5 22.8 21.8 9.0 9.0 8.5 16.0 6.0 10.0 12.0Industry value added (%YoY) 9.5 15.0 1.8 8.3 17.8 8.3 9.8 5.8 6.5 4.0 3.0 4.0 5.0Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 2,092 2,658 3,057 3,367 3,897 4,494 4,929 5,466 5,956 6,618 7,548 8,388 9,544Nominal GDP (€bn) 2.7 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.0 6.7 7.7 8.1 8.0 8.5Nominal GDP ($bn) 3.7 4.7 5.2 5.6 6.3 7.1 7.1 7.9 8.6 8.4 9.0 9.7 10.5Population (mn) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4GDP per capita ($) 399 489 533 559 622 676 665 719 758 731 762 796 850Gross national saving (% of GDP) 7.2 10.1 6.6 6.4 4.9 7.3 10.5 8.6 8.7 7.6 10.8 10.5 9.9Bank credit to private sector (lcl bn) 254 335 349 391 502 670 758 906 1,124 1,405 1,531 1,746 2,008Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 12.1 12.6 11.4 11.6 12.9 14.9 15.4 16.6 18.9 21.2 20.3 20.8 21.0Loan to deposit ratio 71.4 88.5 91.0 86.0 87.0 94.0 88.0 87.0 88.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0PricesUrban CPI (average %YoY) 3.8 3.1 10.3 6.0 2.4 2.5 7.1 8.4 0.5 5.0Urban CPI (end-year %YoY) 4.5 7.4 9.2 5.1 -0.4 6.8 11.0 -0.2 4.5 5.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)General govt. budget balance (incl. grants) -1.8 0.9 0.3 0.4 -1.2 -5.0 -4.0 -4.9 -4.6 -3.8 -5.3 -4.3 -4.3Total public debt 27.0 21.3 22.9 20.0 20.1 21.7 28.7 29.3 36.4 44.5 47.6 49.2 49.8External balanceExports ($bn) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3Imports ($bn) 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.3Trade balance ($bn) -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0Trade balance (% of GDP) -10.8 -13.1 -14.5 -13.6 -17.4 -19.4 -16.1 -16.1 -15.7 -15.4 -10.3 -10.5 -9.1C/A balance incl offical transfers ($bn) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9C/A balance incl official transfers (% of GDP) -2.2 -4.9 -7.3 -5.5 -7.2 -11.4 -7.8 -10.5 -12.8 -14.8 -8.7 -9.9 -8.7Net FDI ($bn) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4Net FDI (% of GDP) 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.8 1.7 2.2 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 0.0 -2.7 -5.1 -4.7 -5.6 -9.2 -4.2 -7.1 -9.0 -10.7 -4.8 -6.0 -4.9Exports (%YoY value) 20 51 -12 37 44 27 19 3 -8 12 34 13 18Imports (%YoY value) 30 52 13 9 44 26 -6 8 1 6 6 7 8Foreign exchange reserves (ex gold US$bn) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3Import cover (months of imports) 10.7 8.1 7.6 7.7 7.2 4.4 6.1 6.0 5.4 5.9 6.8 6.3 6.7Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5Gross external debt (% of GDP) 15 14 14 14 16 21 27 28 33 42 45 48 46Gross external debt (% of exports) 324 253 319 244 222 257 270 306 423 469 409 408 362Total debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Total debt service (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1Total debt service (% of exports) 8 5 6 6 4 6 6 8 9 8 11 13 8Interest & exchange ratesKey repo rate YE 12.5 11.3 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.0Credit to the private sector (%YoY) 22.4 31.6 5.0 11.2 28.4 30.4 12.6 19.7 24.0 25.0 9.0 14.0 15.0Exchange rate (Rwf/EUR) year-end 794 780 819 796 783 833 932 835 809 864 1,008 1,078 1,158Exchange rate (Rwf/EUR) annual average 750 804 792 774 837 790 894 902 793 864 935 1,043 1,118Exchange rate (Rwf/$) year-end 544 559 571 594 604 631 676 690 745 822 854 884 926Exchange rate (Rwf/$) annual average 547 547 568 583 601 614 673 686 719 786 838 869 905Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - - B2 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's - - - - B B B B B+ B B B naFitch B- B- B- B B B B B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ na

Source: IMF, UNCTAD, National Bank of Rwanda, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates

Source: Rosstat, CBR, MinFin, Bloomberg, IMF, World Bank, Renaissance Capital estimates



118

255Figure 255: Credit ratings SAU Figure 256: Consensus forecasts Figure 259: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 1.5 2.3Moody's A1 May-16 (-) = CPI (%) 3.4 2.6S&P A-u Feb-16 (A+) = C/A bal. (% GDP) 2.6 2.1Fitch A+ Mar-17 (AA-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -7.9 -7.1Local currencyMoody's A1 May-16 (Aa3) = FX vs $, YE 3.8 3.8S&P A-u Feb-16 (A+) = FX vs EUR, YE 4.7 4.9Fitch A+ Mar-17 (AA-) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 260: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$KSA 2 3/8 10/26/21 5,500 96.02 2.38 3.3 3.6 74.7 QZ9368189KSA 2 7/8 03/04/23 3,000 95.59 2.88 4.4 3.9 97.8 AP2858755KSA 4 04/17/25 4,500 98.63 4.00 6.0 4.2 128.1 AS1608783KSA 3 1/4 10/26/26 5,500 92.35 3.25 7.3 4.3 136.1 QZ9368197KSA 3 5/8 03/04/28 5,000 93.64 3.63 8.1 4.4 143.4 AP2859159KSA 4 1/2 04/17/30 3,000 98.68 4.50 9.1 4.6 162.6 AS1609179KSA 4 1/2 10/26/46 6,500 90.60 4.50 15.3 5.1 209.4 QZ9368221KSA 4 5/8 10/04/47 4,500 91.54 4.63 15.3 5.2 215.5 AP2859340KSA 5 04/17/49 3,500 95.92 5.00 15.3 5.3 223.9 AS1609492



Geographic share Geographic shareChina 13% EU 21%Japan 11% China 14%US 10% US 12%Euro area 9% Japan 4%Other key countries Other key countriesIndia 9% Korea 6% Figure 262: CPI vs policy rateKorea 9% India 4%Singapore 3% UK 4%Taiwan 3% Switzerland 3%Pakistan 3% Oman 3%

Product ProductFuels 71% Machinery and transport 46%Chemicals 21% Other machinery/transport 35%Other manufactures 2% Other manufactures 23%Machinery and transport 2% Food items 14%Other machinery/transport 2% Chemicals 10%


Saudi Arabia

100

110

120

130

140

1503.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

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10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

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12Ju

l-12

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13Ju

l-13

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14Ju

l-14

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15Ju

l-15

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16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

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18

SAR vs $ SAR vs EURS Arabia REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

Weaker

Stronger

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

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11Ju

l-11

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12Ju

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13Ju

l-13

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14Ju

l-14

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17Ju

l-17

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18

Saudi 3M yield index

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Saudi CPI, % YoY Reverse repo rate, %

Repo rate, %

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jan-

16

Apr-1

6

Jul-1

6

Oct-1

6

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Saudi Arabia 2028 $ bond Saudi Arabia 2026 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM



119

Figure 263: Saudi Arabia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/A-u/A+ EODB Rank: 92 (94) - Middle Corruption Rank: 57 (62) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 1.8 6.3 -2.1 4.8 10.3 5.4 2.7 3.7 4.1 1.7 -0.7 1.7 1.9Investment (% GDP) 26.5 27.3 31.7 31.0 27.0 26.5 26.5 28.8 35.1 30.9 28.2 28.1 28.6Unemployment rate year-end (%) 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 na na naNominal GDP (lcl bn) 1,559 1,949 1,609 1,976 2,517 2,760 2,800 2,836 2,454 2,419 2,564 2,805 2,847Nominal GDP ($bn) 416 520 429 527 671 736 747 756 654 645 684 748 759Population (mn) 24.9 25.8 26.7 27.6 28.4 29.2 30.0 30.8 31.0 31.7 32.4 33.0 33.7GDP per capita ($) 16,667 20,157 16,095 19,113 23,655 25,208 24,893 24,580 21,095 20,318 21,120 22,650 22,538Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 578 735 734 776 858 1,003 1,126 1,256 1,372 1,406 1,394 1,408 1,436Lending/GDP (%) 37.1 37.7 45.6 39.3 34.1 36.3 40.2 44.3 55.9 58.1 54.3 50.2 50.4Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 48.9 52.8 36.6 43.4 50.6 48.9 44.6 38.5 26.5 27.2 30.9 33.5 32.2PricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.1 6.1 4.2 3.8 3.8 2.9 3.5 2.2 1.3 2.0 -0.9 3.7 2.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.3 9.1 4.3 5.4 2.7 3.6 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.2 -0.9 3.7 2.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 11.8 29.8 -5.4 4.4 11.6 11.9 5.6 -3.5 -15.8 -17.2 -9.0 -7.3 -5.6Primary government balance 10.8 28.6 -5.5 4.7 11.6 11.7 5.2 -4.2 -17.9 -20.2 -10.5 -8.2 -6.2Total public debt (% of GDP) 17.1 12.1 14.0 8.4 5.4 3.0 2.1 1.6 5.8 13.1 17.3 20.0 23.8External indicatorsExports ($bn) 284 288 423 230 306 459 515 478 447 254 203 220 na naImports ($bn) 68 89 113 93 104 129 153 164 170 174 140 128 na naTrade balance ($bn) 199.6 309.5 136.6 201.4 330.2 362.9 313.9 277.4 79.3 62.9 92.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 48.0 59.5 31.8 38.2 49.2 49.3 42.0 36.7 12.1 9.7 13.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 93.4 132.3 21.0 66.8 158.6 164.8 135.4 73.8 -56.7 -23.9 18.2 40.4 27.0Current account balance (% of GDP) 22.5 25.5 4.9 12.7 23.6 22.4 18.1 9.8 -8.7 -3.7 2.7 5.4 3.6Net FDI ($bn) 24.3 39.5 36.5 29.2 16.3 12.2 8.9 8.0 8.1 7.5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.9 7.6 8.5 5.5 2.4 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 28.3 33.0 13.4 18.2 26.1 24.0 19.3 10.8 -7.4 -2.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 1.4 46.7 -45.6 33.0 50.2 12.2 -7.2 -6.5 -43.3 -20.1 8.7 na naImports (% YoY, value) 29.8 27.8 -17.6 12.1 23.5 18.2 7.8 3.3 2.6 -19.8 -8.6 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 305 442 410 445 541 656 725 732 616 535 0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 41.4 46.9 52.8 51.1 50.3 51.7 52.9 51.7 42.4 45.9 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 101.4 106.6 113.8 120.2 117.4 125.7 133.1 132.7 123.4 166.1 163.4 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 24.4 20.5 26.5 22.8 17.5 17.1 17.8 17.6 18.9 25.8 23.9 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 35.2 25.2 49.5 39.3 25.6 24.4 27.8 29.7 48.7 81.9 74.1 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 37.8 30.1 41.7 46.1 39.5 58.1 49.1 63.1 51.8 54.3 54.1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 9.1 5.8 9.7 8.7 5.9 7.9 6.6 8.3 7.9 8.4 7.9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 13.1 7.1 18.1 15.1 8.6 11.3 10.3 14.1 20.4 26.8 24.6 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 12.4 6.8 10.2 10.4 7.3 8.9 6.8 8.6 8.4 10.1 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 19.6 17.6 10.7 5.0 13.3 13.9 10.9 11.9 2.6 0.7 0.2 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 5.14 5.52 5.23 4.98 5.22 4.82 4.98 4.98 4.16 4.15 4.24 4.65 4.70


Credit rating history LatestMoody's A1 A1 A1 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 A1 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- A+ A-u A-u A-u naFitch A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA AA AA- A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Saudi Arabia



120

264Figure 264: Credit ratings SEN Figure 265: Consensus forecasts Figure 268: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's Ba3 Apr-17 (B1) = CPI (%) na naS&P B+ Dec-00 (-) = C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch - - (-) na Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's Ba3 Apr-17 (B1) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P B+ Dec-00 (-) = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch - - (-) na Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 269: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$SENEGL 8 3/4 05/13/21 300 111.81 8.75 2.6 4.5 172.1 EI6686394SENEGL 6 1/4 07/30/24 500 103.08 6.25 5.1 5.7 273.0 EK4044732SENEGL 6 1/4 05/23/33 1,100 97.07 6.25 8.9 6.6 355.8 AN6331648SENEGL 6 3/4 03/13/48 1,000 95.13 6.75 12.2 7.1 412.7 AR493943€

SENEGL 4 3/4 03/13/28 1,000 99.41 4.75 7.0 4.8 403.9 AR493857



Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 14% EU 38%China 5% China 10%US 1% US 3%Japan 0% Japan 2%Other key countries Other key countriesMali 13% Nigeria 9% Figure 271: CPI vs policy rateSwitzerland 10% India 6%India 6% Turkey 3%Ivory Coast 5% Russia 2%UAE 4% Ivory Coast 2%

Product ProductFood items 35% Fuels 29%Fuels 20% Food items 21%Other manufactures 13% Other manufactures 19%Gemstones and non-monetary gold11% Machinery and transport 19%Chemicals 10% Other machinery/transport 14%


Senegal

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10

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14Ap

r-14

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4Oc

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Senegal 2024 $ bond Senegal 2033 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM

80

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95

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105

110400

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Jan-

10Ju

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18

XOF vs $ XOF vs EURSenegal REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

Weaker

Stronger

na

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

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Senegal CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



121

Figure 272: Senegal key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/B+/- EODB Rank: 140 (147) - Weak Corruption Rank: 66 (64) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 35 (34) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.9 3.7 2.4 4.3 1.9 4.5 3.6 4.1 6.5 6.7 7.2 7.0 7.0Investment (% GDP) 29.3 31.2 22.1 22.1 25.6 29.3 27.5 24.5 25.2 26.9 26.3 27.6 27.6Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl bn) 5,408 5,990 6,031 6,401 6,783 7,263 7,346 7,568 8,082 8,722 9,564 10,435 11,363Nominal GDP ($bn) 11 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 14 15 16 20 22Population (mn) 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8GDP per capita ($) 952 1,101 1,020 1,002 1,082 1,039 1,053 1,054 913 955 1,038 1,209 1,294Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1,205 1,560 1,614 1,714 2,018 2,263 2,534 2,764 2,961 3,244 3,781 4,121 4,492Lending/GDP (%) 22.3 26.0 26.8 26.8 29.8 31.2 34.5 36.5 36.6 37.2 39.5 39.5 39.5Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 17.4 17.0 15.4 17.7 17.6 18.4 17.0 15.5 18.2 21.3 16.9 19.7 20.1PricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.9 6.3 -2.2 1.2 3.4 1.4 0.7 -1.1 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.5CPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.2 5.5 -4.5 4.3 2.7 1.1 -0.1 -0.8 0.4 2.1 0.3 1.5 1.5Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.5 -4.4 -4.6 -4.9 -6.1 -5.2 -5.5 -5.0 -4.8 -4.2 -4.5 -3.5 -3.0Primary government balance -2.8 -3.8 -3.9 -4.0 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -3.3 -2.8 -2.1 -2.1 -1.4 -0.7Total public debt (% of GDP) 23.5 23.9 34.2 35.5 40.7 42.8 46.9 54.5 56.9 60.4 61.2 60.6 58.8External indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.5 na naImports ($bn) 3 4.3 5.6 4.3 4.4 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.0 5.2 5.5 6.0 na naTrade balance ($bn) -2.9 -3.5 -2.5 -2.4 -3.0 -3.5 -3.6 -3.5 -2.9 -2.8 -3.6 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -25.7 -26.2 -19.8 -18.7 -20.5 -24.3 -24.4 -22.7 -21.3 -19.0 -21.6 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -1.3 -1.9 -0.9 -0.6 -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.8 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6Current account balance (% of GDP) -11.8 -14.2 -6.7 -4.4 -8.0 -10.9 -10.5 -9.0 -7.0 -5.5 -9.4 -7.9 -7.5Net FDI ($bn) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.6 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.7 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -9.2 -11.2 -4.2 -2.3 -5.7 -8.9 -8.4 -6.4 -4.5 -2.9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 5 44 -16 12 22 -1 4 5 -10 15 -7 na naImports (% YoY, value) 30 29 -24 2 22 9 5 0 -13 5 10 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 23 22 30 30 35 45 45 53 62 63 60 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 182 144 218 197 211 275 274 318 364 344 396 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 6 5 5 5 7 10 9 8 7 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 62 37 37 32 29 42 61 55 48 39 1 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 1 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 13 9 11 16 15 14 16 14 16 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 12.9 9.6 13.0 10.4 6.5 6.7 8.6 12.6 19.1 14.1 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 657 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656


Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Senegal



122

Serbia 248 SRB 942 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 273: Serbia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/BB/BB EODB Rank: 43 (47) - Strong Corruption Rank: 77 (72) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 49 (47) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.9 5.4 -3.1 0.6 1.4 -1.0 2.6 -1.8 0.8 2.8 1.8 3.5 3.5 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 834 1,125 1,306 1,657 1,788 1,958 1,871 1,926 1,980 2,029 2,067 2,150 2,258Lending/GDP (%) 35.4 41.0 45.3 54.0 52.5 54.6 48.3 49.3 49.0 47.6 46.3 45.2 44.6Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 11.9 9.3 13.2 12.1 11.5 9.5 11.5 11.5 14.1 16.0 14.0 14.1 13.8 NGSD_NGDP



Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.9 -1.9 -3.6 -3.7 -4.1 -6.8 -5.3 -6.2 -3.6 -1.2 1.2 -0.3 -0.2 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance -0.1 -1.3 -2.9 -2.6 -2.8 -4.9 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 1.9 4.0 2.3 2.4 GGXONLB_NGDP






Net FDI ($bn) 4.4 4.0 2.9 1.7 4.9 1.3 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 10.9 8.1 6.8 4.3 10.6 3.2 4.5 4.5 6.3 6.0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -6.3 -13.0 0.6 -2.0 2.0 -8.3 -1.6 -1.4 1.6 2.9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 52 24 -24 17 20 -4 30 1 -10 11 12 na naImports (% YoY, value) 42 23 -30 4 19 -5 9 -1 -11 6 16 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 14 11 15 13 15 14 15 11 11 10 11 na naImport cover (months of imports) 9.0 5.8 11.0 9.1 9.0 8.6 8.6 6.7 7.1 6.3 5.9 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 16 18 20 20 22 23 27 25 25 22 16 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 40 37 48 51 46 55 60 56 67 58 39 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 182 168 245 203 183 199 186 169 187 150 97 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 9 8 7 8 9 7 8 6 6 7 7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 23 16 16 20 20 16 18 13 15 17 16 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 106 70 83 81 78 59 55 39 42 44 40 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 68 69 47 63 61 49 55 50 53 65 60 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 3 5 5 4 5 6 8 8 4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 8 10 11 11 11 15 19 19 11 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 37 43 56 44 44 53 57 56 32 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 23 43 31 34 35 44 57 73 40 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 9.5 11.5 9.8 11.3 9.5 8.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 42.5 9.8 21.5 12.9 10.3 9.4 4.6 8.7 7.2 9.9 na na na FM3_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - B1 B1 B1 B1 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB- BB BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB BB naFitch BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ BB- BB BB naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




123

Slovenia 250 SVN 961 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 274: Slovenia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa1/A+/A- EODB Rank: 37 (30) - Strong Corruption Rank: 34 (31) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 86 (71) - StrongYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.9 3.3 -7.8 1.2 0.6 -2.7 -1.1 3.0 2.3 3.1 5.0 4.0 3.2 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 LP





Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 0.3 -0.3 -5.4 -5.2 -5.5 -3.1 -13.8 -5.8 -3.3 -1.7 -0.8 0.0 -0.3 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 1.2 0.5 -4.6 -4.0 -4.2 -1.4 -11.5 -2.8 -0.6 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.5 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) -1.5 -2.9 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -5.2 -1.0 -1.9 -1.6 0.3 1.3 4.0 4.9 5.3 5.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2.0 -3.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 1.0 2.1 2.9 1.9 2.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.1 -5.3 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 2.1 4.4 5.8 4.4 5.2 6.5 5.7 5.2 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 0.8 1.2 -0.5 0.1 1.1 0.3 -0.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.6 2.2 -0.9 0.2 2.1 0.7 -0.3 2.1 2.3 2.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.6 -3.1 -1.5 0.1 2.3 2.9 4.1 7.9 6.7 7.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 30 14 -24 12 19 -7 6 6 -11 3 17 na naImports (% YoY, value) 31 17 -28 13 18 -10 4 2 -12 2 18 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na naImport cover (months of imports) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 53 56 60 56 54 57 57 57 51 47 52 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 109 101 119 117 105 122 119 115 118 106 107 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 174 164 230 193 155 176 169 160 159 143 136 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 15 15 15 13 12 16 10 9 9 10 11 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 30 27 31 27 24 33 22 18 21 23 23 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 49 44 59 44 36 48 30 25 28 31 29 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 1498 1748 1593 1383 1494 1982 1297 986 1183 1610 1494 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) 4.0 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na na FM3_XDC


Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 A1 Baa2 Ba1 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's AA AA AA AA AA- A A- A- A- A AA- AA- naFitch AA AA AA AA AA- A- BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ A- A+ A+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, BloombergSource: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg



124

275Figure 275: Credit ratings ZAF Figure 276: Consensus forecasts Figure 279: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 1.9 1.9Moody's Baa3 Mar-18 (Baa2) = CPI (%) 5.0 5.2S&P BB Nov-17 (BBB-) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -3.1 -3.4Fitch BB+ Apr-17 (BBB-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -3.7 -3.6Local currencyMoody's Baa3 Mar-18 (Baa2) = FX vs $, YE 12.1 12.5S&P BB+ Nov-17 (BBB) = FX vs EUR, YE 15.2 16.3Fitch BB+ Apr-17 (BBB) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus

Figure 277: Selected benchmark issuesAmt Out. Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.

Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 280: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$SOAF 4 7/8 04/14/26 1,250 98.47 4.88 6.5 5.1 214.8 JK7319995SOAF 4.3 10/12/28 2,000 92.02 4.30 8.2 5.3 230.5 QZ7292142SOAF 5.65 09/27/47 1,500 96.18 5.65 13.9 5.9 290.1 AP2252371LocalSAGB 7 3/4 02/28/23 76,134 100.38 7.75 3.9 7.6 35.6 EJ2359440SAGB 10 1/2 12/21/26 208,253 113.97 10.50 5.6 8.2 51.8 CP5073947SAGB 8 3/4 02/28/48 188,762 96.73 8.75 10.1 9.1 113.2 EJ2359143Corporate$SAFTRA 4 07/26/22 1,000 97.31 4.00 3.8 4.7 181.3 EJ2936429ESKOM 7 1/8 02/11/25 1,250 102.35 7.13 5.3 6.7 374.3 EK7413587FSRSJ 6 1/4 04/23/28 500 100.71 6.25 4.2 6.3 317.0 AS1461365



Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 16% EU 23%China 9% China 18%US 8% US 7%Japan 5% Japan 4%Other key countries Other key countriesNamibia 5% India 5% Figure 282: CPI vs policy rateBotswana 5% Nigeria 4%UK 4% Saudi Arabia 3%India 4% UK 3%Mozambique 3% Thailand 2%

Product ProductMachinery and transport 23% Machinery and transport 34%Other machinery/transport 21% Other machinery/transport 24%Other manufactures 16% Other manufactures 19%Food items 11% Fuels 13%Other ores and metals 11% Chemicals 12%


South Africa

1

3

5

7

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14Ap

r-14

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4Oc

t-14

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15Ap

r-15

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5Oc

t-15

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r-16

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6Oc

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r-17

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7Oc

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South Africa 2026 $ bond South Africa 2025 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM

60

110

16068

101214161820

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ZAR vs $ZAR vs EUR

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12

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South Africa 3M yield (zc)South Africa 2Y yield index

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South Africa CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



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Figure 283: South Africa key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BB/BB+ EODB Rank: 82 (74) - Middle Corruption Rank: 71 (64) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 58 (60) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.4 3.2 -1.5 3.0 3.3 2.2 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.7Investment (% GDP) 21.0 23.2 20.7 19.5 19.7 20.0 21.2 20.5 21.0 19.4 18.6 18.7 18.8Unemployment rate year-end (%) 23.0 22.5 23.7 24.9 24.8 24.9 24.7 25.1 25.4 26.7 27.5 27.9 28.3Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 2,110 2,369 2,508 2,748 3,024 3,254 3,540 3,805 4,051 4,350 4,652 4,970 5,323Nominal GDP ($bn) 299 287 297 375 417 396 367 351 318 296 349 371 387Population (mn) 48.8 49.5 50.2 50.9 51.6 52.3 53.1 53.9 54.8 55.6 56.5 57.4 58.3GDP per capita ($) 6,124 5,802 5,926 7,381 8,083 7,574 6,908 6,509 5,803 5,316 6,180 6,459 6,632Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1,785 2,051 2,053 2,186 2,309 2,550 2,702 2,942 3,261 3,411 3,612 3,829 4,058Lending/GDP (%) 84.6 86.6 81.9 79.6 76.4 78.4 76.3 77.3 80.5 78.4 77.6 77.0 76.2Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 15.6 17.6 18.0 18.0 17.5 14.8 15.3 15.2 16.6 16.1 16.3 15.8 15.8PricesCPI (average % YoY) 7.2 11.0 7.1 4.3 5.0 5.6 5.8 6.1 4.6 6.3 5.3 5.3 5.3CPI (year-end, % YoY) 8.8 10.1 6.3 3.5 6.2 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.3 6.7 4.7 5.6 5.3Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 1.4 -0.5 -5.2 -5.0 -4.1 -4.4 -4.3 -4.3 -4.8 -4.1 -4.5 -4.2 -4.1Primary government balance 3.8 1.7 -2.9 -2.6 -1.5 -1.7 -1.4 -1.3 -1.6 -0.7 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1Total public debt (% of GDP) 27.1 26.5 30.1 34.7 38.2 41.0 44.1 47.0 49.3 51.6 52.7 54.9 55.7External indicatorsExports ($bn) 52 63 73 54 91 109 100 96 91 81 75 89 na naImports ($bn) 72 91 96 71 88 109 110 110 106 91 79 88 na naTrade balance ($bn) -27.2 -22.9 -16.7 3.4 0.0 -10.8 -13.7 -14.7 -9.1 -4.6 1.3 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -9.1 -8.0 -5.6 0.9 0.0 -2.7 -3.7 -4.2 -2.9 -1.5 0.4 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -16.1 -15.9 -8.1 -5.6 -9.2 -20.3 -21.6 -18.7 -14.0 -9.6 -7.9 -10.6 -11.9Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.4 -5.5 -2.7 -1.5 -2.2 -5.1 -5.9 -5.3 -4.4 -3.3 -2.3 -2.9 -3.1Net FDI ($bn) 6.5 9.2 7.5 3.6 4.2 4.6 8.3 5.8 1.8 2.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2.2 3.2 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.2 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.8 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3.2 -2.3 -0.2 -0.5 -1.2 -4.0 -3.6 -3.7 -3.8 -2.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 21 15 -25 68 19 -9 -4 -5 -11 -8 19 na naImports (% YoY, value) 26 6 -26 24 24 1 -1 -3 -14 -12 11 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 29.6 30.6 35.2 38.2 42.6 44.0 44.9 44.3 41.6 42.6 45.5 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.9 3.8 5.9 5.2 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.5 6.4 6.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 77 75 83 111 118 142 137 145 124 143 173 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 26 26 28 30 28 36 37 41 39 48 50 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 122 103 152 122 109 143 143 159 152 191 194 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 24 25 21 22 21 28 27 35 29 30 33 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 9 7 6 5 7 7 10 9 10 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 38 35 39 24 19 28 28 38 36 40 37 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 81 83 60 57 48 63 61 79 70 70 72 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 4 8 5 6 6 10 13 8 8 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 7 10 10 7 6 10 13 9 10 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 14 25 15 17 15 22 28 18 19 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 7.0 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.8 6.3 7.0 6.8 6.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 23.6 14.7 1.8 6.9 8.3 5.2 5.9 7.3 10.3 6.1 6.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 9.7 12.1 11.8 9.7 10.1 10.6 12.8 14.4 14.2 16.3 15.0 16.6 17.3


Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa1 Baa1 A3 A3 A3 Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 *- Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BBB- BB BB naFitch BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


South Africa



126

Sri Lanka 252 LKA 524 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 284: Sri Lanka key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/B+/B+ EODB Rank: 111 (110) - Middle Corruption Rank: 91 (95) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 23 (22) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.8 6.0 3.5 8.0 8.4 9.1 3.4 5.0 5.0 4.5 3.1 4.0 4.5 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.7 21.9 LP






Primary government balance -1.5 -1.9 -3.0 -1.5 -1.3 -0.9 -0.6 -2.0 -2.2 -0.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 GGXONLB_NGDP






Net FDI ($bn) 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.2 -6.7 0.4 -1.1 -5.6 -4.4 -2.2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 27 8 -11 21 17 -10 11 -3 -11 3 12 na naImports (% YoY, value) -3 22 -32 31 63 -8 13 7 -21 27 9 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 3 2 5 7 6 6 7 7 7 5 7 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.2 2.5 6.9 7.7 4.4 4.8 4.4 4.6 5.2 3.2 4.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 15 14 17 21 0 37 40 43 45 46 52 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 41 29 35 37 0 54 54 54 56 57 59 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 182 153 214 220 0 368 356 394 460 462 461 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 2 0 0 1 0 6 7 7 8 7 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 7 0 1 1 0 9 9 9 10 9 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 30 0 3 6 0 64 60 67 78 73 68 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 72 0 6 9 0 101 102 99 116 142 109 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 6 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 8 4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 11 14 18 15 12 20 18 58 35 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 26 50 31 21 21 32 31 87 52 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 7.5 7.3 7.0 7.5 6.5 6.5 6.0 7.0 7.3 7.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 15.6 11.7 19.9 18.0 20.9 18.3 18.0 13.1 17.2 18.9 17.5 na na FM2_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 naStandard & Poor's B+ B B B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naFitch BB- B+ B+ B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




127

Taiwan 253 TWN 528 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 285: Taiwan key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa3/AA-u/AA- EODB Rank: 15 (11) - Strong Corruption Rank: 29 (31) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.5 0.7 -1.6 10.6 3.8 2.1 2.2 4.0 0.8 1.4 2.8 1.9 2.0 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.6 LP



PricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.8 3.5 -0.9 1.0 1.4 1.9 0.8 1.2 -0.3 1.4 0.6 1.3 1.3 PCPIPCH



Primary government balance na na na na na na na na na na na na na GGXONLB_NGDP


External indicatorsExports ($bn) na 258 270 215 289 326 388 382 379 337 310 350 na na TXG_FOB_USD

Imports ($bn) na 220 240 176 252 286 339 328 319 264 239 269 na na TMG_CIF_USD

Trade balance ($bn) 38.5 29.2 39.4 37.0 39.6 49.6 54.6 60.2 73.1 70.6 81.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 9.4 7.0 10.0 8.3 8.2 10.0 10.7 11.3 13.9 13.3 14.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 32.0 24.8 40.7 36.8 37.9 44.3 51.3 61.8 75.2 71.9 80.1 83.4 83.6 BCA


Net FDI ($bn) 7.8 5.4 2.8 2.5 -2.0 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.4 8.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.6 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 9.7 7.2 11.1 8.8 7.4 9.6 10.7 12.2 14.8 15.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) na 4 -20 34 13 19 -2 -1 -11 -8 13 na naImports (% YoY, value) na 9 -27 43 13 18 -3 -3 -17 -9 12 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 270 292 348 382 386 403 417 419 426 434 452 na naImport cover (months of imports) 14.7 14.6 23.7 18.2 16.2 14.3 15.3 15.8 19.4 21.8 20.2 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 87 74 65 97 105 101 150 145 119 129 148 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 21 18 17 22 22 20 29 27 23 24 26 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 34 27 30 33 32 26 39 38 35 42 42 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 50 40 54 93 81 81 113 115 89 99 122 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 12 9 14 21 17 16 22 22 17 19 21 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 20 15 25 32 25 21 29 30 26 32 35 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 19 14 15 24 21 20 27 28 21 23 27 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 0.8 7.2 5.8 5.4 4.8 3.5 5.8 6.1 5.8 3.6 3.6 na na over



Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 naStandard & Poor's AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA-u AA-u AA-u naFitch A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




128

286Figure 286: Credit ratings TJK Figure 287: Consensus forecasts Figure 290: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date Outlook (Prior) 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's B3 Aug-17 = - CPI (%) na naS&P B- Aug-17 = - C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch - - na - Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's B3 Aug-17 = - FX vs $, YE na naS&P B- Aug-17 = - FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch - - na - Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 291: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$TAJIKI 7 ⅛ 09/14/27 500 93.14 7.13 5.9 8.2 540.2 AO9419067

JV6456919EK6947437

ED7791103QJ1649335EJ1291206



Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 6% China 42%China 5% EU 4%US 3% US 0%Japan 0% Japan 0%Other key countries Other key countries Note: REER avg from 2009 - 2017 owing to lack of dataTurkey 20% 42% Figure 293: CPI vs policy rateKazakhstan 18% Russia 18%Switzerland 14% Kazakhstan 13%Iran 9% Iran 5%Afghanistan 8% Turkey 4%

Product ProductNon-Ferrous Metals 35% Other manufactures 33%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 19% Machinery and transport 18%Agricultural raw materials 16% Food items 17%Other ores and metals 15% Other machinery/transport 13%Other manufactures 13% Textiles, fabrics and clothing 12%


Tajikistan

60

110

4

9

14

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

TJS vs $ TJS vs EURTajikistan REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

Weaker

Stronger

na

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

Tajikistan CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %

0

2

4

6

8

10

31 A

ug 17

30 S

ep 17

31 O

ct 17

30 N

ov 17

31 D

ec 17

31 Ja

n 18

28 F

eb 18

31 M

ar 18

Tajikistan 2027 $ bond US generic 10y YtM



129

Figure 294: Tajikistan key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/- EODB Rank: 123 (128) - Middle Corruption Rank: 161 (151) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.8 7.9 3.9 6.5 7.4 7.5 7.4 6.7 6.0 6.9 7.1 4.0 4.0Investment (% GDP) 27.4 21.9 18.4 17.7 21.3 17.9 15.3 15.8 18.9 22.2 20.8 19.0 20.4Unemployment rate year-end (%) 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.5 na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl bn) 13 18 21 25 30 36 41 46 48 54 62 69 76Nominal GDP ($bn) 3.7 5.1 5.0 5.6 6.5 7.6 8.5 9.2 7.9 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.2Population (mn) 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.2GDP per capita ($) 514 696 661 741 836 953 1,046 1,113 927 803 824 849 888Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 1.7 2.5 2.7 3.1 4.4 4.7 7.2 9.5 10.7 9.6 7.6 na naLending/GDP (%) 13.2 14.3 13.1 12.7 14.7 13.0 17.9 20.9 22.2 17.7 12.3 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 14.1 22.8 14.8 8.1 14.0 8.7 7.6 12.9 12.9 18.4 18.2 13.8 15.7PricesCPI (average % YoY) 13.2 20.4 6.4 6.5 12.4 5.8 5.0 6.1 5.8 5.9 7.3 6.3 6.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 19.8 11.9 4.9 9.8 9.3 6.4 3.7 7.4 5.1 6.1 6.7 6.3 6.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -5.5 -5.1 -5.2 -3.0 -2.1 0.6 -0.8 0.0 -1.9 -9.8 -2.4 -7.4 -5.4Primary government balance -5.1 -4.8 -4.7 -2.5 -1.6 1.2 0.1 0.4 -1.5 -8.3 -1.1 -6.1 -3.9Total public debt (% of GDP) 34.2 30.2 36.9 36.8 35.9 32.4 29.1 27.5 34.3 41.8 47.8 50.2 49.9External indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 na naImports ($bn) 2 2.6 3.4 2.5 2.7 3.3 3.7 3.9 5.4 3.4 3.2 3.3 na naTrade balance ($bn) -1.1 -1.9 -1.5 -1.4 -1.9 -2.2 -2.6 -4.4 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -29.6 -36.6 -29.4 -24.5 -29.5 -29.1 -30.7 -47.3 -29.5 -34.6 -32.8 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4Current account balance (% of GDP) -13.3 0.9 -3.6 -9.6 -7.3 -9.2 -7.8 -2.8 -6.0 -3.8 -2.6 -5.2 -4.7Net FDI ($bn) 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 10.6 9.5 1.9 1.3 2.5 3.1 1.2 2.8 2.9 6.2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.7 10.4 -1.7 -8.3 -4.9 -6.1 -6.5 0.0 -3.1 2.4 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 4.8 -1.6 -29.8 22.4 5.7 11.0 -12.9 -21.3 5.5 -22.1 13.5 na naImports (% YoY, value) 51.1 29.1 -25.5 6.0 23.0 13.4 5.6 37.9 -37.1 -4.5 3.0 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 na naImport cover (months of imports) 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 2.3 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 4.8 4.8 5.3 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 20.0 26.7 36.6 37.2 16.7 16.2 16.0 13.4 60.5 68.9 73.2 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 49 92 175 165 81 82 104 121 440 569 558 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 2.0 0.8 12.2 11.7 0.4 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 5.0 13.3 7.3 88.8 96.7 3.1 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 292 0 0 0 15 25 38 42 1,490 758 5 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1.7 2.5 9.4 12.3 9.0 5.8 5.2 4.7 4.3 9.2 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 4.3 8.5 44.7 54.5 43.8 29.5 33.7 42.6 31.6 75.9 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 4,310 2,374 5,365 3,797 3,126 1,952 1,120 2,662 6,745 8,568 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 15.0 13.5 8.0 8.3 9.8 6.5 5.5 8.0 8.0 11.0 16.0 14.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 80.2 -2.1 40.7 18.6 33.1 19.6 19.7 7.1 18.7 37.1 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 4.72 5.04 5.78 5.81 6.42 6.12 6.33 6.56 6.84 8.67 9.66 11.11 11.60


Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - - - B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - B- B- naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Tajikistan



130

Tanzania 254 TZA 738 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 295: Tanzania key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/-/- EODB Rank: 137 (132) - Weak Corruption Rank: 103 (116) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 28 (29) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 8.8 5.6 5.4 6.4 7.9 5.1 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.6 6.0 5.6 5.6 NGDP_RPCH

Private consumption (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na na NID_NGDP

Government consumption (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LUR

Investment (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na na NGDP

Nominal GDP (TZStn) 26.8 32.6 37.8 43.6 52.4 61.3 71.0 79.7 90.8 103.7 116.2 130.3 146.1 1000

Nominal GDP (€bn) 15.7 18.5 20.4 22.8 23.7 30.1 33.0 35.0 38.3 43.2 45.4 45.9 47.5 LP

Nominal GDP ($bn) 21.6 27.2 28.5 30.2 33.0 38.6 43.9 47.9 44.6 47.4 51.9 55.9 60.2 NGDPDPC

Population (mn) 39.7 40.7 41.8 42.8 43.9 44.9 45.8 46.7 47.7 48.6 49.6 50.6 51.6GDP per capita ($) 544 668 682 705 752 860 957 1,025 935 975 1,046 1,105 1,166Gross national saving (% of GDP) 22.6 22.3 18.9 21.8 21.7 19.5 14.9 21.9 24.7 23.0 24.1 24.6 24.8 NGSD_NGDP

Bank credit to private sector (TZStn) 3.0 4.4 4.8 5.8 7.4 8.7 10.2 12.1 14.1 16.3 17.6 19.7 22.6Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 11.1 13.4 12.7 13.3 14.1 14.2 14.3 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.1 15.1 15.5 PCPIPCH

Loan to deposit ratio 56.9 70.9 64.6 62.3 67.1 69.9 68.7 70.0 70.5 71.0 70.5 71.0 71.0 PCPIEPCH

PricesCPI (average %YoY) 7.0 10.3 12.1 7.2 12.7 16.0 7.9 6.1 5.6 5.2 5.6 6.5 5.8 GGXCNL_NGDP

CPI (end-year %YoY) 6.4 13.5 12.2 5.6 19.8 12.1 5.6 4.8 6.8 5.0 5.4 6.0 5.5 GGXONLB_NGDP

Fiscal balance (% of GDP) GGXWDG_NGDP

General government budget balance* -1.7 -4.5 -6.4 -6.9 -5.0 -5.0 -3.9 -3.0 -3.3 -3.1 -3.4 -4.5 -4.6Total public debt 21.6 21.6 24.3 27.5 28.0 29.2 30.9 33.8 36.7 37.2 37.4 38.3 39.5 TXG_FOB_USD

External balance TMG_CIF_USD

Exports ($bn) 2.2 3.6 3.3 4.3 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.5Imports ($bn) 4.9 7.0 5.8 7.2 9.8 10.5 10.9 11.0 10.4 8.3 9.0 9.8 11.0Trade balance ($bn) -2.6 -3.4 -2.5 -2.8 -4.7 -5.1 -5.4 -5.4 -4.7 -2.9 -3.6 -3.9 -4.5 BCA

Trade balance (% of GDP) -12.2 -12.6 -8.9 -9.4 -14.3 -13.1 -12.3 -11.2 -10.5 -6.1 -6.9 -7.0 -7.5 BCA_NGDPD

Current account balance ($bn) -1.7 -2.6 -1.8 -1.9 -4.0 -4.5 -4.7 -4.6 -3.9 -2.2 -2.0 -2.9 -3.5Current account balance (% of GDP) -7.9 -9.4 -6.3 -6.4 -12.0 -11.7 -10.7 -9.6 -8.7 -4.6 -3.8 -5.2 -5.7Net FDI ($bn) 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Net FDI (% of GDP) 2.7 4.6 3.3 6.0 4.1 4.7 4.6 4.2 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.3Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -5.3 -4.8 -3.0 -0.4 -7.9 -7.0 -6.1 -5.3 -4.2 -0.3 0.1 -1.6 -2.4Exports (%YoY, value) 16 61 -8 31 18 7 1 2 2 -5 0 9 10Imports (%YoY, value) 26 44 -17 23 37 7 3 1 -6 -20 8 9 12Gross official reserves ($bn) 2.7 2.9 3.6 3.9 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.0Import cover (months of imports) 6.7 4.9 7.3 6.6 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 6.4 6.5 6.1 5.5Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 6 7 8 10 10 9 12 13 13 15 16 17 17Gross external debt (% of GDP) 27 26 29 32 31 25 27 27 29 31 31 30 28Gross external debt (% of exports) 263 196 249 223 203 173 211 230 223 269 296 280 262Total debt service ($bn) 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1Total debt service (% of GDP) 2 3 -1 1 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1Total debt service (% of exports) 2 2 1 1 2 4 4 3 4 8 9 10 9Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply, M2 (%YoY) 27.2 24.4 20.8 21.8 15.0 16.0 10.9 17.0 10.0 12.0 9.0 11.0 14.0Credit to the private sector (%YoY) 42.2 47.0 9.8 20.6 27.6 17.9 15.3 19.4 16.4 15.4 8.0 12.0 15.03-month interest rate (t-bill YE %) 9.9 11.2 6.1 5.2 12.6 11.9 13.6 13.2 10.8 7.0 5.0 7.0 9.03-month interest rate spread over $-Libor (ppt) 3.9 8.4 5.5 4.5 11.5 11.4 13.1 12.6 10.0 5.6 3.3 4.9 9.05Y yield (% YE) 17.6 16.4 13.5 11.6 13.2 14.9 15.4 14.6 17.5 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.4 FM3_XDC

Exchange rate (TZS/EUR) year-end 1,683 1,838 1,920 1,987 2,050 2,091 2,192 2,013 2,214 2,300 2,641 2,844 3,034Exchange rate (TZS/EUR) annual average 1,701 1,764 1,849 1,914 2,209 2,040 2,148 2,280 2,371 2,399 2,561 2,840 3,073Exchange rate (TZS/$) year-end 1,154 1,318 1,340 1,484 1,582 1,585 1,590 1,733 2,149 2,181 2,295 2,367 2,488Exchange rate (TZS/$) annual average 1,241 1,199 1,326 1,442 1,586 1,587 1,617 1,664 2,039 2,187 2,238 2,331 2,428Credit rating historyMoody's - - - - - - - - - - - B1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - na

Source: IMF, UNCTAD, Bank of Tanzania, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



131

Thailand 255 THA 578 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 296: Thailand key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa1/BBB+/BBB+ EODB Rank: 26 (46) - Strong Corruption Rank: 96 (101) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 66 (51) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.4 1.7 -0.7 7.5 0.8 7.2 2.7 1.0 3.0 3.3 3.9 3.9 3.8 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 66.1 66.5 67.0 67.3 67.6 68.0 68.3 68.7 68.8 69.0 69.1 69.2 69.3 LP



PricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.2 5.5 -0.8 3.3 3.8 3.0 2.2 1.9 -0.9 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.7 PCPIPCH


Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 0.2 0.8 -2.2 -1.3 0.0 -0.9 0.5 -0.8 0.1 0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 1.1 1.6 -1.5 -0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.3 -0.1 0.7 1.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) 12.6 -3.3 17.2 8.2 -8.9 -23.1 -25.1 -3.2 8.9 18.7 11.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 4.8 -1.1 6.1 2.4 -2.4 -5.8 -6.0 -0.8 2.2 4.5 2.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 15.6 0.9 22.2 11.5 9.4 -1.7 -4.9 15.2 32.1 48.2 49.3 45.0 44.8 BCA

Current account balance (% of GDP) 5.9 0.3 7.9 3.4 2.5 -0.4 -1.2 3.7 8.0 11.7 10.8 9.3 8.6 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI ($bn) 7.9 9.1 7.8 14.6 3.3 16.5 16.7 3.5 10.8 1.6 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3.0 3.1 2.8 4.3 0.9 4.2 4.0 0.9 2.7 0.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 8.9 3.4 10.6 7.6 3.4 3.7 2.8 4.6 10.7 12.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 18 14 -14 27 14 3 -1 0 -6 1 11 na naImports (% YoY, value) 8 27 -25 37 24 9 0 -9 -11 -3 15 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 85 109 135 168 167 173 161 151 151 166 196 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.2 7.3 12.1 10.9 8.8 8.3 7.8 8.0 9.0 10.2 10.5 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 74 76 75 101 104 131 142 142 131 132 149 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 28 26 27 29 28 33 34 35 33 32 33 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 30 29 30 46 38 46 45 46 43 46 53 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 12 10 11 14 10 12 11 11 11 11 12 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 20 16 20 24 17 20 20 20 21 21 22 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 36 26 22 28 23 27 28 30 29 28 27 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 22 17 13 11 10 15 13 15 19 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 8 6 5 3 3 4 3 4 5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 14 10 8 6 5 7 6 7 9 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 26 16 9 7 6 9 8 10 13 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na 3.3 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 6.3 9.2 6.8 10.9 15.2 10.3 7.3 4.7 4.4 4.2 5.0 na na over4



Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 naStandard & Poor's BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naFitch BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




132

65

TUN

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19E

Foreign currency Real GDP (%) 2.7 na

Moody's B2 Mar-18 (B1) = CPI (%) 5.0 na

S&P NR na C/A bal. (% GDP) -8.5 na

Fitch B+ Feb-17 (BB-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -5.1 na

Local currency

Moody's B2 Mar-18 (B1) = FX vs $, YE na na

S&P NR na FX vs EUR, YE na na

Fitch B+ Feb-17 (BB-) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus

Amt. Out Price Coupon Dur. Yield Z-Sprd.

Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps)

Sovereign

$

BTUN 5 ¾ 01/30/25 1,000 92.79 5.75 5.4 7.1 416.7 XS1175223699

BTUN 8 ¼ 09/19/27 150 109.96 8.25 6.6 6.8 382.0 DD113180

€

BTUN 4 ½ 06/22/20 400 104.26 4.50 2.0 2.4 254.7 ED9751675

BTUN 5 ⅝ 02/17/24 850 101.94 5.63 4.8 5.2 475.3 AM3615623

¥

BTUN 2.04 08/07/23 22,400 105.04 2.04 5.0 1.0 93.3 EJ7708872

BTUN 1.61 10/10/24 50,000 106.00 1.61 6.2 0.6 50.5 EK5031746

Exports, 2016 ($bn) 13 Imports, 2016 ($bn) 19

Geographic share Geographic share

Euro area 67% Euro area 54%

US 4% China 6%

China 1% US 3%

Japan 1% Japan 0%

Other key countries Other key countries

Libya 6% Algeria 8%

Algeria 3% Turkey 4%

UK 1% Libya 2%

Morocco 1% Ukraine 2%

Switzerland 1% Brazil 1%

Product Product

Other manufactures 36% Machinery and transport 34%

Machinery and transport 36% Other manufactures 25%

Other machinery/transport 25% Other machinery/transport 25%

Textiles, fabrics and clothing 21% Fuels 12%

Food items 11% Chemicals 12%


Tunisia

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-

14

Apr

-14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

Apr

-16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr

-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

Apr

-18

Bank of Tunisia 2025 $ US generic 10y YtM

70

80

90

100

110

120

1301.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

TND vs $ TND vs EURTunisia REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

Weaker

Stronger

0

2

4

6

8

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Tunisia CPI, % YoY Policy rate (%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Jul-1

7

Jan-

18

Tunisia 12m auction yield Tunisia 5y auction yield

Tunisia 10y auction yield

Figure 297: Credit ratings Figure 298: Consensus forecasts Figure 301: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Figure 299: Selected benchmark issues

Figure 302: Government bond yields (lcl)


Figure 300: Trade profile

Figure 304: CPI vs policy rate



133

Ratings (M/S&P/F) B2/NR/B+ EODB Rank: 88 (77) - Middle Corruption Rank: 74 (75) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 49 (53) - Middle

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E

Activity

Real GDP (% YoY) 6.3 4.5 3.1 2.6 -1.9 3.9 2.4 2.3 1.1 1.0 1.9 2.4 2.9

Investment (% GDP) 23.7 25.5 24.7 25.6 23.1 24.4 22.7 23.2 21.4 22.2 22.5 23.1 23.5

Unemployment rate year-end (%) 12.4 12.4 13.3 13.0 18.9 16.7 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.3 15.0 14.8

Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 49.9 55.3 58.9 63.1 64.5 70.4 75.2 80.8 84.7 90.4 97.4 106.2 115.4

Nominal GDP ($bn) 38.9 44.8 43.6 44.1 45.8 45.0 46.3 47.6 43.2 42.1 40.3 40.3 42.0

Population (mn) 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.8

GDP per capita ($) 3,805 4,341 4,179 4,177 4,292 4,180 4,249 4,329 3,884 3,690 3,496 3,463 3,569

Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 29 33 37 44 49 54 58 63 67 73 83 93 104

Lending/GDP (%) 57.9 59.9 62.0 69.1 76.5 76.3 76.9 78.1 79.3 81.1 85.6 87.9 89.8

Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 21.3 21.7 21.9 20.8 15.7 16.1 14.4 14.0 12.5 13.4 12.4 14.0 15.7

Prices

CPI (average % YoY) 3.0 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.5 5.1 5.8 4.9 4.9 3.7 5.3 7.0 6.1

CPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.9 4.4 3.3 3.3 3.9 5.9 5.7 4.8 4.1 4.2 6.4 6.5 5.9

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)

Consolidated government balance -2.6 -0.7 -2.7 -2.2 -4.3 -5.2 -7.3 -3.7 -5.3 -5.9 -6.0 -5.2 -3.4

Primary government balance -0.2 1.4 -0.7 -0.3 -2.4 -3.4 -5.5 -1.8 -3.3 -3.7 -3.6 -2.6 -0.8

Total public debt (% of GDP) 44.8 42.0 40.5 39.2 43.1 47.7 46.8 51.6 54.8 61.2 71.3 73.1 73.3

External indicators

Exports ($bn) 11 14.8 18.6 14.0 15.8 17.2 16.3 16.3 16.0 13.4 12.9 13.5 na na

Imports ($bn) 15 19.1 24.5 19.1 21.9 23.5 24.0 23.8 25.0 20.4 19.0 20.1 na na

Trade balance ($bn) -4.3 -5.9 -5.2 -6.0 -6.3 -7.7 -7.5 -9.0 -7.0 -6.1 -6.6 na na

Trade balance (% of GDP) -11.0 -13.2 -11.9 -13.7 -13.8 -17.1 -16.1 -19.0 -16.2 -14.5 -16.3 na na

Current account balance ($bn) -0.9 -1.7 -1.2 -2.1 -3.4 -3.7 -3.9 -4.3 -3.8 -3.7 -4.0 -3.7 -3.3

Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -3.8 -2.8 -4.8 -7.4 -8.3 -8.4 -9.1 -8.9 -8.8 -10.1 -9.2 -7.8

Net FDI ($bn) 1.6 2.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 na na na

Net FDI (% of GDP) 4.2 6.2 3.9 3.4 2.5 3.6 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 na na na

C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.8 2.3 1.0 -1.4 -4.9 -4.7 -6.0 -6.9 -6.6 -6.5 na na na

Exports (% YoY, value) 30 26 -25 13 8 -5 0 -2 -16 -4 5 na na

Imports (% YoY, value) 27 29 -22 14 7 2 -1 5 -18 -7 6 na na

FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 7.9 8.8 11.1 9.5 7.5 8.4 7.3 7.2 7.3 5.9 0.0 na na

Import cover (months of imports) 4.9 4.3 6.9 5.2 3.8 4.2 3.7 3.5 4.3 3.7 0.0 na na

External Debt

Gross external debt YE ($bn) 20 21 22 22 22 25 27 28 29 29 33 na na

Gross external debt YE (% of GDP) 53 47 51 50 49 56 58 58 66 69 83 na na

Gross external debt YE (% of exports) 138 112 159 139 131 156 164 173 213 224 248 na na

Short-term external debt YE ($bn) 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 na na

Short-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 10 11 11 11 14 14 14 15 16 18 na na

Short-term external debt YE (% of exports) 27 23 35 31 29 38 40 43 49 52 53 na na

Short-term external debt to reserves (%) 51 49 44 53 66 75 90 95 90 114 na na na

Total debt service ($bn) 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 na na na na

Total debt service (% of GDP) 6 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 5 na na na na

Total debt service (% of exports) 17 11 15 15 15 16 15 12 15 na na na na

Total debt service to reserves (%) 32 23 19 25 36 31 34 26 28 na na na na

Currency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.8 4.3 4.3 5.0 5.8 na

Broad money growth (%YoY) 12.4 14.2 12.7 12.2 9.1 8.5 6.1 8.7 5.1 8.0 10.1 na na




Moody's Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 Baa3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 B1 B2 na

Standard & Poor's BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB - - - NR NR NR na

Fitch BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB+ BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ na

Note: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


TunisiaFigure 305: Tunisia key economic indicators



134

306Figure 306: Credit ratings TUR Figure 307: Consensus forecasts Figure 310: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 4.3 4.1Moody's Ba2 Mar-18 (Ba1) = CPI (%) 10.1 9.2S&P BBu Jul-16 (BB+) – C/A bal. (% GDP) -5.5 -5.2Fitch BB+ Jan-17 (BBB-) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -2.1 -2.5Local currencyMoody's Ba2 Mar-18 (Ba1) = FX vs $, YE 4.1 4.2S&P BB+u Jul-16 (BBB-) – FX vs EUR, YE 5.1 5.5Fitch BBB- Jul-16 (BBB) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 311: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$TURKEY 6 1/4 09/26/22 2,500 105.34 6.25 3.8 4.9 198.0 EI9661808TURKEY 7 3/8 02/05/25 3,250 110.13 7.38 5.3 5.6 259.9 ED7777532TURKEY 6 1/8 10/24/28 2,000 100.03 6.13 7.6 6.1 311.6 AS2461893TURKEY 5 3/4 05/11/47 3,500 87.72 5.75 12.7 6.7 367.8 AN4636584Local AH0049611TURKGB 12.2 01/18/23 12,749 97.27 12.20 3.4 13.0 -104.1 AQ8745293TURKGB 10 1/2 08/11/27 19,069 90.81 10.50 5.5 12.2 -47.8 AO8340504Corporate$AKBNK 5 1/8 03/31/25 500 95.06 5.13 5.7 6.0 304.5 EK8261373GARAN 5 7/8 03/16/23 500 100.56 5.88 4.2 5.7 281.9 AM7986749EXCRTU 6 1/8 05/03/24 500 99.84 6.13 5.0 6.2 321.0 AS4022727TCZIRA 5 1/8 09/29/23 500 96.00 5.13 4.6 6.0 306.6 AP2864852Figure 312: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)KCHOL 5 1/4 03/15/23 750 100.99 5.25 4.0 5.0 209.1 JK4093643TUPRST 4 1/2 10/18/24 700 94.94 4.50 5.5 5.4 248.1 AP4218578CCOLAT 4.215 09/19/24 500 96.84 4.22 5.5 4.8 183.8 AP1153984


Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 30% EU 29%US 4% China 12%China 2% US 5%Japan 0% Japan 2%Other key countries Other key countriesUK 7% Russia 10% Figure 313: CPI vs policy rateIraq 6% Korea 3%Switzerland 4% Iran 3%UAE 3% India 3%Iran 3% UK 3%

Product ProductOther manufactures 41% Machinery and transport 35%Machinery and transport 29% Other machinery/transport 27%Other machinery/transport 24% Other manufactures 20%Textiles, fabrics and clothing 18% Chemicals 14%Food items 11% Electronic components 6%


Turkey

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jan-

14Ma

r-14

May-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep-

14No

v-14

Jan-

15Ma

r-15

May-1

5Ju

l-15

Sep-

15No

v-15

Jan-

16Ma

r-16

May-1

6Ju

l-16

Sep-

16No

v-16

Jan-

17Ma

r-17

May-1

7Ju

l-17

Sep-

17No

v-17

Jan-

18Ma

r-18

Turkey 2028 $ bond Turkey generic 10y yield ($)US generic 10y YtM

7075808590951001051.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

TRY vs $ TRY vs EURTurkey REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

Weaker

Stronger

3

6

9

12

15

18

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

Turkey 3M yield Turkey 2Y yield indexTurkey 5Y yield index Turkey 10Y yield index

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

Turkey CPI, % YoY 1wk Repo rate (%)O/N Lending rate Late Liquidity window



135

Figure 314: Turkey key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BBu/BB+ EODB Rank: 60 (69) - Middle Corruption Rank: 81 (75) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 25 (36) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.0 0.8 -4.7 8.5 11.1 4.8 8.5 5.2 6.1 3.2 7.0 4.4 4.0Investment (% GDP) 28.7 28.9 23.0 27.0 31.3 28.3 29.8 29.0 28.4 28.2 30.9 31.3 31.1Unemployment rate year-end (%) 9.2 10.0 13.1 11.1 9.1 8.4 9.0 9.9 10.3 10.9 11.0 10.7 10.7Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 880 995 999 1,160 1,394 1,570 1,810 2,044 2,339 2,609 3,099 3,611 4,170Nominal GDP ($bn) 675 765 644 772 832 874 950 934 859 863 849 910 962Population (mn) 70.6 71.5 72.6 73.7 74.7 75.6 76.7 77.7 78.7 79.8 80.8 81.9 82.9GDP per capita ($) 9,563 10,692 8,882 10,476 11,141 11,553 12,395 12,022 10,915 10,817 10,512 11,114 11,602Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 265 330 373 517 679 807 1,078 1,277 1,534 1,791 2,168 2,537 2,917Lending/GDP (%) 30.1 33.1 37.3 44.6 48.7 51.4 59.6 62.5 65.6 68.6 70.0 70.2 69.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 23.3 24.0 21.4 21.3 22.4 22.8 23.2 24.4 24.8 24.5 25.8 26.0 26.5PricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.8 10.4 6.3 8.6 6.5 8.9 7.5 8.9 7.7 7.8 11.1 11.4 10.5CPI (year-end, % YoY) 8.4 10.1 6.5 6.4 10.4 6.2 7.4 8.2 8.8 8.5 11.9 10.9 10.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.9 -2.7 -5.9 -3.4 -0.7 -1.8 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.9 -3.2Primary government balance 2.7 1.5 -1.5 0.1 1.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 -1.0 -0.9 -1.3 -1.3Total public debt (% of GDP) 38.2 38.2 43.9 40.1 36.5 32.7 31.4 28.8 27.6 28.3 28.5 27.8 27.9External indicatorsExports ($bn) 85 107 132 102 114 135 152 152 158 144 143 157 na naImports ($bn) 139 170 202 141 186 241 237 252 242 207 199 234 na naTrade balance ($bn) -63.4 -69.9 -38.8 -71.7 -105.9 -84.1 -99.9 -84.6 -63.4 -56.1 -76.8 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -9.4 -9.1 -6.0 -9.3 -12.7 -9.6 -10.5 -9.1 -7.4 -6.5 -9.0 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -36.9 -39.4 -11.4 -44.6 -74.4 -48.0 -63.6 -43.6 -32.1 -33.1 -47.1 -49.1 -45.9Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.5 -5.2 -1.8 -5.8 -8.9 -5.5 -6.7 -4.7 -3.7 -3.8 -5.5 -5.4 -4.8Net FDI ($bn) 22.0 19.9 8.6 9.1 16.1 13.3 12.3 12.1 16.5 12.0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3.3 2.6 1.3 1.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.4 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2.2 -2.6 -0.4 -4.6 -7.0 -4.0 -5.4 -3.4 -1.8 -2.4 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 25.1 23.9 -22.6 11.5 18.5 13.0 -0.4 3.8 -8.7 -0.9 10.2 na naImports (% YoY, value) 21.9 18.9 -30.2 31.7 29.8 -1.8 6.4 -3.8 -14.4 -4.2 17.7 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 73.4 70.4 70.9 80.7 78.3 99.9 110.9 106.9 92.9 92.1 84.1 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5.2 4.2 6.0 5.2 3.9 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.6 4.3 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 250 281 269 292 305 342 392 405 399 408 453 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 37.0 36.7 41.7 37.8 36.7 39.1 41.3 43.4 46.5 47.3 53.4 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 43 53 49 77 83 102 133 135 105 101 118 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 6.4 6.9 7.6 10.0 10.0 11.7 14.0 14.5 12.2 11.7 13.8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 40.5 39.8 47.9 67.8 61.6 67.1 87.8 85.7 73.1 71.1 74.9 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 59 75 69 96 106 102 120 126 113 110 140 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 49.3 55.9 62.9 59.4 58.1 56.9 63.8 58.0 21.9 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 7.3 7.3 9.8 7.7 7.0 6.5 6.7 6.2 2.5 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 46.3 42.4 61.5 52.1 43.0 37.3 42.1 36.8 15.2 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 67.2 79.4 88.7 73.6 74.1 56.9 57.5 54.3 23.5 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na 5.8 5.5 4.5 8.3 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 15.3 24.7 13.0 18.4 15.4 10.5 21.1 11.7 16.2 17.8 15.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1.79 1.91 2.16 1.99 2.33 2.31 2.53 2.91 3.02 3.34 4.12 4.92 5.44


Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba2 Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Ba1 Ba1 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB BB BB BB+ BB+ BB+ BBu BBu BBu naFitch BB- BB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Turkey



136

UAE 258 ARE 466 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 315: UAE key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa2/-/- EODB Rank: 21 (26) - Strong Corruption Rank: 21 (24) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 70 (73) - MiddleYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.2 3.2 -5.2 1.6 6.4 5.1 5.8 3.3 3.8 3.0 0.5 2.0 3.0 NGDP_RPCH



Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 947 1,159 931 1,065 1,289 1,377 1,434 1,481 1,315 1,281 1,386 1,512 1,571 NGDP


Population (mn) 6.2 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.7 LP


Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 631 937 955 971 1,021 1,054 1,130 1,198 1,294 1,355 1,351 1,365 1,433Lending/GDP (%) 66.7 80.9 102.6 91.2 79.3 76.6 78.8 80.9 98.5 105.8 97.5 90.2 91.2Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 33.1 32.2 34.7 31.3 36.0 41.8 38.4 34.6 30.0 26.4 26.8 27.4 27.2 NGSD_NGDP



Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 17.1 17.6 -6.1 0.6 5.3 9.0 8.4 1.9 -3.4 -2.5 -1.8 -1.4 -0.8 GGXCNL_NGDP

Primary government balance 17.1 17.7 -6.0 0.9 5.5 9.3 8.8 2.2 -3.2 -2.3 -1.7 -1.3 -0.7 GGXONLB_NGDP




Trade balance ($bn) 4.8 18.2 -45.1 -13.8 25.3 3.5 -32.5 -46.9 -101.0 -85.7 -67.7 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 1.9 5.8 -17.8 -4.8 7.2 0.9 -8.3 -11.6 -28.2 -24.6 -17.9 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 20.2 22.3 7.8 12.2 44.3 74.0 74.1 54.5 17.6 4.9 17.6 21.8 21.6 BCA


Net FDI ($bn) 14.2 5.1 1.1 8.8 7.2 8.8 9.5 10.8 11.0 9.0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.5 1.6 0.4 3.0 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 2.6 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 13.4 8.7 3.5 7.2 14.7 22.1 21.4 16.2 8.0 4.0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 12 47 -38 45 36 12 -1 -4 -26 0 14 na naImports (% YoY, value) 30 38 -7 14 13 24 13 1 -4 -6 3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 77 32 26 33 37 47 68 78 94 85 95 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.2 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.9 3.8 4.1 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 171 190 196 204 203 234 250 286 337 350 325 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 66 60 77 71 58 63 64 71 94 100 86 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 129 98 164 117 86 88 95 113 180 188 154 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 65 67 65 71 78 87 92 92 127 117 119 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 25 21 26 24 22 23 24 23 35 34 31 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 49 34 54 41 33 33 35 37 68 63 56 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 84 212 249 216 208 185 135 118 135 138 125 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.8 2.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na 5.9 3.9 1.6 6.7 12.7 9.1 2.2 5.1 5.4 na na over6



Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




137

Uganda 259 UGA 746 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 316: Uganda key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B/B+ EODB Rank: 122 (115) - Middle Corruption Rank: 151 (151) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 19 (19) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.1 10.4 8.1 7.7 6.8 2.2 4.7 4.6 5.7 2.3 4.5 5.2 5.8 NGDP_RPCH





Population (mn) 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.5 31.5 32.5 33.5 34.5 35.5 36.6 37.7 38.8 40.0 LP












Net FDI ($bn) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5.9 4.2 4.5 2.7 4.2 4.9 4.2 3.8 4.2 2.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1.8 -2.9 -1.1 -5.3 -5.7 -1.8 -2.9 -4.0 -2.5 -1.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 39 29 -9 3 33 9 -5 -11 1 15 25 na naImports (% YoY, value) 37 29 -6 10 21 7 -3 4 -9 -13 35 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8.8 6.1 8.4 7.0 5.6 6.3 6.9 6.6 6.3 0.0 0.0 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 2 2 3 3 3 4 9 9 10 10 12 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 12 11 14 15 15 15 33 32 39 41 45 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 9 6 9 9 7 7 15 16 19 18 16 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 26 26 21 15 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 15 18 na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 5 4 5 4 3 3 4 11 5 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 6 3 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na na na 23.0 12.0 11.5 11.0 17.0 12.0 9.5 9.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 22.0 30.8 17.5 38.1 12.4 14.9 9.5 15.2 11.7 11.1 11.9 na na FM3_XDC



Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - B1 B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's - B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B B B B B naFitch B B B B B B B B B+ B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates




138

317Figure 317: Credit ratings UKR Figure 318: Consensus forecasts Figure 321: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date (Prior) Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 3.0 3.0Moody's Caa2 Aug-17 (Caa3) + CPI (%) 11.3 8.4S&P B- Oct-15 (SD) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -3.6 -3.7Fitch B- Nov-16 (CCC) = Fiscal bal (%GDP) -2.6 -2.5Local currencyMoody's Caa2 Aug-17 (Caa3) + FX vs $, YE 30.0 30.5S&P B- Oct-15 (CCC+) = FX vs EUR, YE 37.8 39.7Fitch B- Nov-16 (CCC) = Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps)SovereignUKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/19 661 103.69 7.75 1.2 4.9 223.5 QJ1056937Figure 322: Government bond yields (lcl)UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/20 1,365 104.26 7.75 2.1 5.8 300.4 QJ1135087UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/21 1,409 103.61 7.75 2.9 6.5 368.2 QJ1135525UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/22 1,384 102.49 7.75 3.6 7.1 418.6 QJ1137778UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/23 1,355 101.40 7.75 4.3 7.4 451.7 QJ1143412UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/24 1,339 100.34 7.75 4.9 7.7 475.0 QJ1143438UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/25 1,329 99.95 7.75 5.4 7.8 481.1 QJ1143461UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/26 1,318 99.44 7.75 6.0 7.8 488.3 QJ1143487UKRAIN 7 ¾ 09/01/27 1,307 98.67 7.75 6.5 8.0 498.1 QJ1144246UKRAIN 0 05/31/40 3,214 67.87 0.00 na na na QJ7814024CorporateEXIMUK 9 ⅝ 04/27/22 750 104.75 9.63 1.7 8.2 336.2 UV3117719EXIMUK Float 02/09/23 125 99.41 9.00 0.3 9.6 na UV3120846EXIMUK 9 ¾ 01/22/25 600 105.69 9.75 3.1 8.6 488.0 UV3121018FXPOLN 10 ⅜ 04/07/19 80 103.42 10.38 0.9 6.5 400.0 EK7074991FXPOLN 10 ⅜ 04/07/19 93 103.44 10.38 0.9 6.5 398.8 AF2312748Figure 323: Currency vs $ and Euro and REER (Dec 07 = 100)METINV 9.3725 12/31/21 117 101.43 7.50 na na na AM4843836MHPSA 8 ¼ 04/02/20 79 108.04 8.25 1.8 3.9 114.5 EJ6060564DTEKUA 10 ¾ 12/31/24 1,344 107.19 10.75 4.5 9.2 na AM0181876OSCHAD 9 ⅜ 03/10/23 700 104.31 9.38 1.6 8.3 294.7 UV7713364OSCHAD 9 ⅝ 03/20/25 500 105.16 9.63 2.7 8.6 452.2 UV7713620RAILUA 9 ⅞ 09/15/21 500 104.96 9.88 1.5 8.2 337.3 JK2673321


Geographic share Geographic shareEuro area 21% EU 25%China 6% China 10%US 1% US 4%Japan 1% Japan 1% Figure 324: CPI vs policy rateOther key countries Other key countriesRussia 13% Russia 20%Turkey 7% Belarus 7%Egypt 5% Poland 6%Poland 5% Hungary 4%

Product ProductFood items 36% Machinery and transport 27%Other manufactures 33% Other manufactures 21%Iron and steel 24% Other machinery/transport 20%Machinery and transport 13% Chemicals 18%Other machinery/transport 11% Fuels 17%Source for all tables and charts: Bloomberg, Bruegel, IMF, UNCTAD

Ukraine

1

3

5

7

9

11

Jan-

15

Apr-1

5

Jul-1

5

Oct-1

5

Jan-

16

Apr-1

6

Jul-1

6

Oct-1

6

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Ukraine 2026 $ bond Ukraine 2027 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM

4050607080901001105

10152025303540

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

UAH vs $ UAH vs EURUkraine REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

Weaker

Stronger

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

Ukraine 2Y yield index Ukraine 4Y yield indexUkraine 10Y yield index

-100

10203040506070

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

Ukraine CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



139

Figure 325: Ukraine key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa2/B-/B- EODB Rank: 76 (80) - Middle Corruption Rank: 130 (131) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 20 (20) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.2 2.2 -15.1 0.3 5.5 0.2 0.0 -6.6 -9.8 2.4 2.5 3.2 3.3Investment (% GDP) 27.8 27.4 17.1 20.9 22.4 21.7 18.5 13.4 15.9 21.5 20.8 22.2 24.0Unemployment rate year-end (%) 6.4 6.4 8.8 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.2 9.3 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.2 8.8Nominal GDP (lcl bn) 751 991 947 1,079 1,300 1,405 1,465 1,587 1,989 2,383 2,908 3,331 3,715Nominal GDP ($bn) 149 188 122 136 163 176 180 132 91 93 109 119 127Population (mn) 46.2 46.0 45.8 45.6 45.5 45.4 45.2 42.8 42.6 42.4 42.3 42.2 42.1GDP per capita ($) 3,220 4,095 2,655 2,983 3,590 3,873 3,969 3,095 2,135 2,199 2,583 2,821 3,007Stock of bank credit (lcl, bn) 444 755 737 747 822 854 965 1,074 1,043 1,023 1,034 1,086 1,140Lending/GDP (%) 59.1 76.2 77.8 69.2 63.2 60.8 65.8 67.7 52.4 42.9 35.6 32.6 30.7Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 24.2 20.6 15.6 18.7 16.2 13.6 9.3 9.5 15.7 17.5 17.2 18.6 20.5PricesCPI (average % YoY) 12.8 25.2 15.9 9.4 8.0 0.6 -0.3 12.1 48.7 13.9 14.4 11.0 8.0CPI (year-end, % YoY) 16.6 22.3 12.3 9.1 4.6 -0.2 0.5 24.9 43.3 12.4 13.7 9.0 6.5Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.9 -3.0 -6.0 -5.8 -2.8 -4.3 -4.8 -4.5 -1.2 -2.2 -2.4 -2.5 -2.7Primary government balance -1.4 -2.5 -4.9 -4.1 -0.8 -2.4 -2.3 -1.2 3.0 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.8Total public debt (% of GDP) 11.8 19.7 34.1 40.6 36.9 37.5 40.5 70.3 79.3 81.2 75.6 78.4 76.9External indicatorsExports ($bn) 38 48.9 66.3 39.8 51.4 68.4 68.7 63.3 53.9 38.1 36.3 42.2 na naImports ($bn) 45 60.0 85.4 45.5 60.7 82.6 84.7 77.0 54.4 37.5 39.2 48.2 na naTrade balance ($bn) -11.1 -19.2 -5.6 -9.3 -14.2 -16.0 -13.7 -0.5 0.6 -2.9 -6.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -7.5 -10.2 -4.6 -6.8 -8.7 -9.1 -7.6 -0.4 0.7 -3.2 -5.5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -5.3 -12.8 -1.7 -3.0 -10.2 -14.3 -16.5 -5.1 -0.3 -3.8 -4.0 -4.4 -4.4Current account balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -6.8 -1.4 -2.2 -6.3 -8.1 -9.2 -3.9 -0.3 -4.1 -3.7 -3.7 -3.5Net FDI ($bn) 9.9 10.9 4.8 6.5 7.2 8.4 4.5 0.4 3.0 3.3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 6.7 5.8 4.0 4.8 4.4 4.8 2.5 0.3 3.3 3.6 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 3.1 -1.0 2.5 2.6 -1.9 -3.4 -6.7 -3.6 3.0 -0.5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 28.3 35.7 -39.9 29.1 33.0 0.4 -7.8 -14.8 -29.3 -4.8 16.4 na naImports (% YoY, value) 33.5 42.4 -46.8 33.6 36.0 2.5 -9.1 -29.3 -31.0 4.6 22.9 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 31.8 30.8 25.6 33.3 30.4 22.7 18.8 6.6 12.4 14.6 17.7 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.4 4.3 6.7 6.6 4.4 3.2 2.9 1.5 4.0 4.5 4.4 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 80 102 103 117 126 135 142 126 119 114 117 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 54 54 85 86 77 77 79 95 131 122 107 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 164 153 260 228 185 196 224 234 311 313 276 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 20.2 19.5 16.6 21.7 26.7 25.4 29.7 20.3 17.0 16.0 17.1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 13.6 10.3 13.7 15.9 16.4 14.5 16.6 15.3 18.7 17.2 15.7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 41.4 29.4 41.8 42.1 39.1 37.0 47.0 37.6 44.6 44.1 40.6 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 64 63 65 65 88 112 158 306 137 110 97 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 12.0 18.5 23.0 27.0 26.8 29.3 37.8 20.9 28.6 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 8.1 9.8 18.9 19.8 16.5 16.7 21.1 15.8 31.4 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 24.6 27.9 57.7 52.5 39.2 42.7 59.8 38.7 75.0 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 38 60 90 81 88 129 202 315 231 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF Forecasts

Key policy rate (% YE) na na 10.3 7.8 7.8 7.5 6.5 14.0 22.0 14.0 14.5 17.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 51.7 30.2 -5.5 22.7 14.7 12.8 17.6 5.3 3.9 10.9 9.5 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 6.9 7.7 10.9 10.5 11.1 10.3 10.8 15.9 24.3 28.3 30.1 34.7 36.8


Credit rating history LatestMoody's B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 B3 Caa1 Caa3 Caa3 Caa3 Caa2 Caa2 naStandard & Poor's BB- B CCC+ B+ B+ B B- CCC- B- B- B- B- naFitch BB- B+ B- B B B B- CCC CCC B- B- B- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Ukraine



140

326Figure 326: Credit ratings UZB Figure 327: Consensus forecasts Figure 330: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date Outlook (Prior) 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) na naMoody's - - - - CPI (%) na naS&P - - - - C/A bal. (% GDP) na naFitch - - - - Fiscal bal (%GDP) na naLocal currencyMoody's - - - - FX vs $, YE na naS&P - - - - FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch - - - - Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 331: Government bond yields (lcl)

JV6456919EK6947437

ED7791103QJ1649335EJ1291206



Geographic share Geographic shareChina 18% China 21%Euro area 3% EU 13%US 0% Japan 2%Japan 0% US 1%Other key countries Other key countriesSwitzerland 26% Russia 21% Figure 333: CPI vs policy rateKazakhstan 14% Korea 12%Turkey 10% Kazakhstan 11%Russia 8% Turkey 5%Bangladesh 7% Kyrgyzstan 3%

Product ProductGemstones and non-monetary gold63% Machinery and transport 42%Non-Ferrous Metals 10% Other machinery/transport 37%Food items 9% Other manufactures 17%Chemicals 7% Chemicals 16%Other manufactures 6% Food items 12%


Uzbekistan

60

110

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,000

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Jan-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18

UZS vs $ UZS vs EURUzbekistan REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

Weaker

Stronger

na

0

5

10

15

20

Dec-0

7Ju

n-08

Dec-0

8Ju

n-09

Dec-0

9Ju

n-10

Dec-1

0Ju

n-11

Dec-1

1Ju

n-12

Dec-1

2Ju

n-13

Dec-1

3Ju

n-14

Dec-1

4Ju

n-15

Dec-1

5Ju

n-16

Dec-1

6Ju

n-17

Dec-1

7Ju

n-18

Dec-1

8

Uzbekistan CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %

na



141

Figure 334: Uzbekistan key economic indicators - IMF ForecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) -/-/- EODB Rank: 74 (87) - Middle Corruption Rank: 157 (156) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 35 (38) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 9.5 9.0 8.1 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.8 5.3 5.0 5.0Investment (% GDP) 28.2 32.0 29.9 20.5 26.7 31.1 30.3 30.1 26.9 24.9 24.9 29.0 31.0Unemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naNominal GDP (lcl tn) 28 39 49 61 79 98 121 146 172 199 249 315 376Nominal GDP ($bn) 22.3 29.5 33.7 38.6 45.9 51.8 57.7 63.1 66.5 66.7 47.9 40.3 47.9Population (mn) 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.7 28.2 29.8 30.2 30.8 31.3 31.8 32.1 32.5 32.9GDP per capita ($) 837 1,093 1,231 1,393 1,631 1,741 1,908 2,052 2,124 2,094 1,491 1,238 1,455Stock of bank credit (lcl, tn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naLending/GDP (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 37.3 40.5 33.3 27.6 32.4 32.2 33.1 31.8 27.6 25.7 28.6 29.2 29.9PricesCPI (average % YoY) 11.2 13.1 12.3 12.3 12.4 11.9 11.7 9.1 8.5 8.0 12.5 19.5 12.9CPI (year-end, % YoY) 11.9 13.8 12.4 11.9 13.6 10.8 10.8 9.2 8.4 7.9 18.9 16.9 10.1Fiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 4.5 7.3 2.3 3.3 7.4 8.1 2.6 3.0 0.4 0.4 -1.7 0.8 1.3Primary government balance 4.6 7.4 2.3 3.3 7.5 8.1 2.7 3.0 0.5 0.4 -1.7 0.8 1.3Total public debt (% of GDP) 15.8 12.3 10.9 10.0 10.0 10.6 11.2 10.9 9.2 10.5 24.5 20.1 20.6External indicatorsExports ($bn) 5 6.5 7.8 5.7 6.7 6.5 5.9 7.9 7.0 6.5 7.7 9.0 na naImports ($bn) 4 6.7 9.7 8.6 8.7 10.2 11.4 13.3 13.9 10.8 10.1 12.4 na naTrade balance ($bn) -0.2 -1.9 -3.0 -2.0 -3.8 -5.5 -5.4 -7.0 -4.4 -2.4 -3.4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -6.5 -8.9 -5.2 -8.2 -10.7 -9.4 -11.0 -6.6 -3.6 -7.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 2.0 2.5 1.1 2.7 2.6 0.6 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.5 1.8 0.1 -0.5Current account balance (% of GDP) 9.1 8.4 3.3 7.1 5.7 1.2 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.7 3.7 0.2 -1.1Net FDI ($bn) 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3.2 2.4 2.5 4.2 3.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 0.1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 12.3 10.8 5.8 11.3 9.3 2.2 3.9 2.7 2.3 0.8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 20 21 -28 19 -4 -9 35 -12 -7 19 17 na naImports (% YoY, value) 55 45 -11 1 17 11 17 5 -22 -7 23 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 12 12 12 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 14 12 14 14 11 10 10 11 18 18 24 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 48 46 82 80 75 88 72 95 186 157 129 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 5 5 7 5 11 15 9 11 17 14 18 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 13 11 15 9 10 12 9 13 20 18 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 9.0 9.0 14.0 14.0 naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1,732 1,941 2,044 2,104 2,387 2,430 2,783 3,070 2,868 3,300 5,878 9,689 9,842


Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - - - - - naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


Uzbekistan



142

Vietnam 261 VNM 582 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 335: Vietnam key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/BB-/BB- EODB Rank: 68 (82) - Middle Corruption Rank: 107 (113) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 29 (27) - Weak

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.1 5.7 5.4 6.4 6.2 5.2 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 6.6 6.5 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 39.6 36.5 37.2 35.7 29.8 27.2 26.7 26.8 27.6 26.6 26.6 27.8 28.6 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.5 2.7 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 1,247 1,616 1,809 2,158 2,780 3,245 3,584 3,938 4,193 4,503 5,008 5,499 6,130 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 78 98 102 113 135 156 171 186 191 201 220 241 265 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 84.2 85.1 86.0 86.9 87.8 88.8 89.8 90.7 91.7 92.7 93.6 94.6 95.5 LPGDP per capita ($) 920 1,154 1,181 1,297 1,532 1,752 1,900 2,049 2,088 2,172 2,354 2,546 2,774 NGDPDPCStock of bank credit (lcl, tn) 1,068 1,339 1,869 2,476 2,830 3,078 3,470 3,950 4,693 5,575 6,579 7,631 8,776Lending/GDP (%) 85.6 82.9 103.3 114.7 101.8 94.8 96.8 100.3 111.9 123.8 131.4 138.8 143.2Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 30.5 25.5 30.7 31.9 29.9 33.2 31.2 31.7 27.5 29.6 30.7 30.9 31.0 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.4 23.1 6.7 9.2 18.7 9.1 6.6 4.1 0.6 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 12.6 19.9 6.5 11.7 18.1 6.8 6.0 1.8 0.6 4.7 2.6 4.0 4.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.0 -0.5 -6.0 -2.8 -1.1 -6.9 -7.4 -6.3 -6.2 -6.3 -4.7 -4.7 -4.8 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -1.0 0.5 -4.9 -1.6 -0.1 -5.6 -5.9 -4.6 -4.3 -4.3 -2.7 -2.6 -2.6 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 40.9 39.4 45.2 48.1 44.6 48.4 51.8 55.0 57.0 59.8 58.2 58.4 58.1 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 40 49 63 58 70 93 111 129 146 160 176 212 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 45 63 81 70 83 104 112 129 145 176 185 221 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -14.1 -17.9 -12.4 -13.1 -11.0 -0.4 -0.5 1.1 -15.8 -9.7 -9.0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -18.2 -18.2 -12.2 -11.6 -8.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.6 -8.2 -4.8 -4.1 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -7.0 -10.8 -6.6 -4.3 0.2 9.3 7.7 9.1 -0.1 6.1 9.1 7.3 6.3 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -9.0 -11.0 -6.5 -3.8 0.2 6.0 4.5 4.9 -0.1 3.1 4.1 3.0 2.4 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 7.0 9.6 7.6 8.0 7.5 8.4 8.9 9.2 11.8 12.6 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 9.0 9.7 7.5 7.1 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.9 6.2 6.3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 0.0 -1.2 1.0 3.3 5.8 11.3 9.8 9.8 6.1 9.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 22 29 -8 22 33 19 16 13 10 10 21 na naImports (% YoY, value) 40 29 -13 19 25 7 16 12 21 5 19 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 23 24 16 12 14 26 26 34 28 37 49 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4.5 3.6 2.8 1.8 1.6 2.7 2.4 2.8 1.9 2.4 2.7 na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 33 38 54 67 76 85 95 98 112 98 86 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 43 39 53 59 56 55 56 53 58 49 39 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 69 61 93 95 81 76 74 67 70 56 40 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 8 8 9 12 17 19 19 21 21 23 27 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 8 9 10 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 16 13 16 17 18 17 15 14 13 13 13 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 33 33 54 94 124 76 74 61 73 62 56 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 1 2 4 5 5 7 7 na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 3 na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 5 6 9 15 31 18 17 20 23 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF ForecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na na na 9.0 15.0 9.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 naBroad money growth (%YoY) 46.1 20.3 29.0 33.3 12.1 34.9 4.4 17.7 16.2 18.4 15.0 na na over7Exchange rate (€) annual average 22,048 24,194 24,829 25,385 28,761 26,829 27,916 28,143 24,314 24,759 25,674 28,316 29,012Exchange rate ($) annual average 16,083 16,445 17,801 19,135 20,653 20,862 21,014 21,183 21,900 22,367 22,721 22,840 23,137Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 B1 B1 B2 B2 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 naStandard & Poor's BB BB BB BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- naFitch BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates


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336Figure 336: Credit ratings ZMB Figure 337: Consensus forecasts Figure 340: Eurobonds (10y or closest) vs US 10y yields

Current Date Prior Outlook 18E 19EForeign currency Real GDP (%) 4.4 4.8Moody's B3 Apr-16 (B2) = CPI (%) 7.0 7.4S&P B Jul-15 (B+) = C/A bal. (% GDP) -2.0 -1.8Fitch B Oct-13 (B+) – Fiscal bal (%GDP) -6.3 -5.2Local currencyMoody's B3 Apr-16 (B2) = FX vs $, YE na naS&P B Jul-15 (B+) = FX vs EUR, YE na naFitch B Oct-13 (B+) – Note: Bloomberg Consensus


Name (mn cu) Level (%) (%) (bps) Figure 341: Government bond yields (lcl)Sovereign$ZAMBIN 5 ⅜ 09/20/22 750 92.89 5.38 3.8 7.3 441.1 EJ3648502ZAMBIN 8 ½ 04/14/24 1,000 102.00 8.50 4.6 8.1 515.4 EK1696666ZAMBIN 8.97 07/30/27 1,250 101.65 8.97 5.6 8.7 572.7 UV3543443



Geographic share Geographic shareChina 26% China 8%Euro area 6% EU 4%US 1% US 1%Japan 1% Japan 1%Other key countries Other key countriesDR Congo 13% South Africa 32% Figure 343: CPI vs policy rateIndia 6% DR Congo 19%Korea 5% Kenya 10%UAE 4% India 5%Zimbabwe 3% UAE 4%

Product ProductNon-Ferrous Metals 69% Machinery and transport 31%Food items 11% Other machinery/transport 25%Other manufactures 5% Other manufactures 17%Gemstones and non-monetary gold4% Chemicals 15%Beverages and Tobacco 4% Fuels 15%


Zambia

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Zambia 2027 $ bond Zambia 2024 $ bondUS generic 10y YtM

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1304

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ZMW vs $ ZMW vs EURZambia REER (RHS) REER lt avg. (RHS)

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Zambia 3M auc. Yield Zambia 2y auc. YieldZambia 5y auc. Yield Zambia 10y auc. Yield

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Zambia CPI, % YoY Key policy rate, %



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Figure 344: Zambia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B/B EODB Rank: 85 (98) - Middle Corruption Rank: 96 (87) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 24 (20) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 6.2 5.7 6.4 7.6 6.8 7.6 5.1 5.0 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.0 4.0Investment (% of GDP) 31.7 29.6 30.3 29.9 33.6 31.8 34.0 34.0 42.8 41.7 41.9 43.0 42.0Nominal GDP (ZMWbn) 56 67 77 97 115 131 151 167 183 217 243 281 318Nominal GDP (€bn) 10.3 12.2 11.0 15.3 17.1 19.9 21.1 20.6 19.2 19.1 23.2 23.7 25.2Nominal GDP ($bn) 14.1 17.9 15.3 20.3 23.8 25.5 28.1 27.1 21.2 21.0 25.9 28.5 31.2Copper price, $/t, YE 7,222 7,245 5,314 7,538 8,824 7,971 7,328 6,861 5,512 4,867 6,170 7,000 7,000Population (mn) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.3GDP per capita ($) 1,143 1,418 1,185 1,528 1,749 1,727 1,842 1,724 1,307 1,257 1,501 1,603 1,702Gross national saving (% of GDP) 30.5 26.3 36.2 37.4 38.3 37.1 33.4 36.1 38.9 37.3 38.3 40.8 41.2Bank credit to private sector (lcl bn) 5.8 8.4 8.0 9.0 10.8 15.0 16.9 19.1 23.1 20.8 20.8 22.2 24.5Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 10.4 12.5 10.3 9.3 9.3 11.4 11.1 11.4 12.6 9.6 8.5 7.9 7.7Loan to deposit ratio 77.5 73.9 66.1 61.2 69.9 64.9 72.6 71.0 70.0 70.5 71.0 71.0PricesCPI (average %YoY) 10.7 12.4 13.4 8.5 8.8 6.6 7.0 7.8 10.1 16.4 6.6 7.4 8.5CPI (end-year %YoY) 8.9 16.6 9.9 7.9 9.9 7.3 7.1 7.9 21.1 7.5 6.5 9.0 8.0Fiscal balance (% of GDP)General government budget balance -1.0 -0.7 -2.0 -2.4 -1.7 -2.8 -6.2 -5.9 -9.3 -5.8 -7.3 -7.8 -7.4Total public debt 21.4 18.8 19.7 18.9 20.8 25.4 27.1 36.1 62.3 60.7 62.2 65.5 68.0External balanceExports ($bn) 4.6 5.0 4.4 7.5 8.8 9.5 10.8 10.2 7.4 6.5 8.2 9.0 10.0Imports ($bn) 3.6 4.6 3.4 4.7 6.5 7.9 9.2 8.6 7.4 6.5 7.9 8.5 9.5Trade balance ($bn) 0.9 0.5 1.0 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5Trade balance (% of GDP) 6.7 2.6 6.3 13.7 9.7 6.2 5.9 6.0 -0.4 -0.1 1.4 1.8 1.6Current account balance ($bn) 2.1 1.6 0.9 3.4 2.3 0.5 1.1 0.5 -1.4 -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5Current account balance (% of GDP) 14.6 8.8 6.1 16.7 9.8 1.9 3.8 1.7 -6.4 -4.6 -2.9 -2.4 -1.7Net FDI ($bn) 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.9 2.4 1.7 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3Net FDI (% of GDP) 9.4 5.2 6.3 3.5 3.7 9.5 6.0 9.2 7.8 8.6 7.7 7.7 7.4Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 24.0 14.0 12.4 20.2 13.6 11.4 9.8 10.8 1.4 4.0 4.9 5.4 5.7Exports (%YoY, value) 14 10 -13 71 17 9 14 -6 -28 -12 26 10 11Imports (%YoY, value) 37 26 -25 38 37 23 16 -7 -13 -12 20 8 12Foreign exchange reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.5Import cover (months of imports) 3.6 2.9 4.4 3.7 3.2 3.6 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.4 3.2 3.4 3.2Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 1 2 2 3 4 4 6 6 7 7 9 10 10Gross external debt (% of GDP) 8 9 10 16 16 17 20 24 32 35 35 35 32Gross external debt (% of exports) 24 34 35 45 44 46 52 63 93 113 111 110 100Total debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1Total debt service (% of GDP) 0 1 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Total debt service (% of exports) 1 2 11 4 2 5 3 3 5 5 5 5 6Interest & exchange ratesPolicy rate, %YE 9.3 9.8 12.5 15.5 15.5 10.3 11.0 10.0Broad money supply (%YoY) 26.6 21.8 8.0 30.8 21.6 23.1 12.8 12.6 22.1 -8.0 -2.0 6.0 9.0Credit to the private sector (%YoY) 47.0 43.8 -5.2 13.3 29.4 39.2 14.2 13.1 21.0 -10.0 0.0 7.0 10.03-month interest rate (t-bill YE %) 11.5 13.9 5.1 6.3 7.1 7.8 8.0 13.0 15.0 14.0 9.0 8.5 8.03-month interest rate spread over $-Libor (ppt) 5.5 11.1 4.5 5.5 6.0 7.3 7.5 12.4 14.2 12.6 7.3 6.4 8.05Y yield (% YE) 15.7 19.0 17.1 13.0 15.4 13.5 16.5 18.7 25.0 21.0 17.0 16.0 16.0Exchange rate (ZMK/EUR) year-end 5.6 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.6 7.7 11.9 10.5 11.4 12.3 13.0Exchange rate (ZMK/EUR) annual average 5.5 5.5 7.0 6.4 6.8 6.6 7.2 8.1 9.5 11.3 10.5 11.9 12.6Exchange rate (ZMK/$) year-end 3.9 4.8 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.5 6.4 11.0 9.9 9.7 10.1 10.4Exchange rate (ZMK/$) annual average 4.0 3.7 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.4 6.2 8.7 10.3 9.4 9.9 10.2Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - B1 B1 B1 B2 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - B+ B+ B+ B+ B B B B naFitch - - - - B+ B+ B B B B B B na

Source: IMF, UNCTAD, Bank of Zambia, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates

Zambia



145

Zimbabwe 263 ZWE 698 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Figure 345: Zimbabwe key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) -/-/- EODB Rank: 159 (161) - Weak Corruption Rank: 157 (154) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 7 (7) - WeakYear 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) -3.4 -16.3 7.4 15.4 16.3 13.6 5.3 2.8 1.4 0.7 2.8 2.0 2.3 NGDP_RPCH

Investment (% of GDP) n/a n/a 14.7 22.4 20.3 12.0 11.5 11.9 12.6 15.5 14.0 13.7 13.4 NID_NGDP

Gold price, $/oz 637 834 882 1,097 1,421 1,564 1,675 1,202 1,184 1,061 1,280 1,300 1,312 LUR

Platinum price, $/t 1,526 934 1,463 1,770 1,395 1,540 1,371 1,208 892 903 940 1,000 1,143 NGDP


Population (mn) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.5 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 LP

GDP per capita ($) 581 493 684 816 969 1,076 1,134 1,149 1,137 1,112 1,150 1,239 1,316 NGDPDPC

Gross national saving (% of GDP) n/a n/a 5.6 21.2 22.0 6.5 5.6 7.2 8.0 19.1 24.8 23.6 23.1Stock of bank credit to corporate/household sector ($bn) 2.7 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.5Stock of bank credit to corporate/household sector (% of GDP) 22.3 24.8 23.7 24.1 23.6 21.7 NGSD_NGDP

PricesCPI (average % YoY) n/a n/a 6.2 3.0 3.5 3.7 1.6 -0.2 -2.4 -1.6 1.3 5.2 6.3 PCPIPCH

CPI (year-end % YoY) n/a n/a -7.7 3.2 4.9 2.9 0.3 -0.8 -2.5 -0.9 3.5 7.9 4.9 PCPIEPCH

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)General government budget balance -2.9 -2.0 -2.0 0.7 -0.5 0.0 -1.7 -1.4 -1.0 -8.4 -9.6 -3.1 -1.9 GGXCNL_NGDP

Total public debt 49.7 68.6 51.4 59.3 41.6 38.8 48.3 49.6 51.9 69.7 75.0 76.0 74.0 GGXONLB_NGDP

External balance GGXWDG_NGDP

Exports ($bn) 1.7 1.7 1.6 3.2 4.4 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2Imports ($bn) 1.9 2.6 3.2 5.2 7.6 6.7 6.8 6.3 6.1 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.2 TXG_FOB_USD

Trade balance ($bn) -0.2 -0.9 -1.6 -2.0 -3.2 -2.9 -3.1 -2.7 -2.5 -1.5 -1.5 -0.9 -1.0 TMG_CIF_USD

Trade balance (% of GDP)Current account balance ($bn) -0.4 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -2.4 -1.8 -2.4 -2.4 -1.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.3 -16.8 -13.7 -12.5 -20.1 -12.9 -15.6 -15.1 -9.3 -4.1 -3.6 -0.8 -0.4 BCA

Net FDI ($bn) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 BCA_NGDPD

Net FDI (% of GDP) 2.8 2.6 3.2 2.5 1.9 0.6Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -10.1 -13.0 -11.9 -6.8 -2.2 -3.0Exports (% YoY, value) -1 -3 -3 101 36 -14 -3 -4 2 2 3 5 5Imports (% YoY, value) -2 36 22 61 47 -11 2 -7 -4 -14 2 -4 2Foreign exchange reserves (ex. gold, $bn) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2Import cover (months of imports) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 11 11 11Gross external debt (% of GDP) 63 78 73 65 61 53 59 68 66 68Gross external debt (% of exports) 259 276 381 206 168 197 241 300 297 297Interest & exchange ratesCredit to the private sector (% YoY) 30.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 -8.0 10.0Exchange rate (ZAR/EUR) year-end 6.8 9.5 7.4 6.6 8.1 8.4 10.5 14.0 17.1 14.4 14.0 14.5 14.0Exchange rate (ZAR/EUR) annual average 7.0 8.2 8.3 7.3 7.2 8.2 9.7 14.3 14.4 16.1 14.2 14.3 14.2Exchange rate (ZAR/$) year-end 9.9 13.3 10.6 8.9 10.5 11.1 14.5 11.6 15.5 13.7 12.4 12.1 12.5Exchange rate (ZAR/$) annual average 9.6 12.1 11.6 9.7 10.1 10.5 12.8 10.9 12.9 14.6 13.3 12.2 12.3Credit rating historyMoody's - - - - - - - - - - - - naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2018-19E exchange rate forecasts are RenCap forecasts

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg #N/A



146

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