frost&sullivan indonesia ict outlook 2012 the big leap ahead
DESCRIPTION
Frost & Sullivan analysis on Indonesia ICT Outlook - presented by Jayesh Easwaramony, VP ICT Practice, Frost & Sullivan Asia Pacific at Frost & Sullivan 2012 Indonesia ICT Briefing, February 15, 2012.TRANSCRIPT
Frost & Sullivan : Indonesia ICT Outlook
The Big Leap Ahead
FEBRUARY 15, 2012
Everybody wants a share of the action
Indonesia is leaping ahead in usage….
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World Indonesia Malaysia United States India
Yahoo acquires Koprol
CT group- Detik ($60mn)
Rakuten JV Facebook Republic
Internet Users per population
The next wave for consumer data is here
• 6.5 % GDP growth
• Next BRICs story
• Record $ 19 bn FDI in
2011
• Upgrade of country
grade (2011)
• 100% mobile SIM
penetration
• 15% smartphone
users
• Internet growth of
400%in 5 yrs
Entry of large players
Entry of Rakuten, Ebay
Growth capital from
incubators
Talent improvement
Young population / long
commutes
98% internet users on
social media
3rd largest Twitter and
Growing
adoption
Robust
Fundamentals
Social/Entertainment
oriented Culture
Creation of
Enablers
Enterprises need better ICT services
2010 2011
7.7
• New ICT requirements – data centers, unified
communication
• More services - contact center etc
Inside out : FDI investment by
Indonesia $ bn
2011 2010
2.7 185%
Outside-in : FDI investment into
Indonesia $ bn
19
15 22%
Indonesia should prepare for next wave of ICT Growth
Infrastructure Centric Growth
dominated by Telecom operators
Service Centric Growth shared
by ICT ecosystem
Smart Capital for further
infrastructure Creation
2. Enterprise Services : Increase in scale and scope
3.Next Wave of consumer
services
• Data center services
and cloud
• Managed services
• BPO and contact
center
• Value unlocking of tower
business
• Incubation
• E-commerce / m-commerce/
social commerce
• Pay TV/ Multiscereen
1. Embrace the Data Phase of
telecom
• Mobil Internet the
biggest driver for
telecom
“ From Voice to Data” – the new era
1. Maturing industry – lower revenue growth
Source: Frost & Sullivan
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
1.10
1.05
1.06
1.05 1.04
• As overall industry is maturing –
total revenue growth is projected in
range of 4% - 6% on the next 5
years
• Key factors impacting revenue
growth:
• Increase in CAPEX needs in
line with increase in data
services
• Data revenue monetization that
is still in “learning curve”
• Operator anticipation for LTE
network deployment
Cellular Industry Market Revenue
(IDR Bn)
1. Mobile data opportunity is huge
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Internet Users Forecast
3.7
16.9
39.6
18.3
4.2
22.9
145.2
21.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand
Mill
ion
s
2010 2015
CAGR: 29.7%
CAGR: 3.6% CAGR: 6.3%
CAGR: 2.8%
2011 2016
Data connections
167 mn
62 mn
• Of the 167 mn , 109 mn will be on
smartphones
• 22 mn will be on tablets and large screen
devices
Drivers
Strong offload potential from Philippines for
certain processes
Domestic call centers like Infomedia looking to
expand
Overseas players like Aegis scouting for
opportunities
Contact Center
Services/BPO
Market Size (US$ mn)
435
1097 369
775
97
462
169
355
194
680
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2010 2015
Contact Center Services/BPO
System integration
ICT Managed Services
Software Development
WAN Services
Huge interest in data center investments by
domestic and international players
Prevention of „Singapore hop‟
Next generation data centers to support cloud
computing based approaches
Includes cloud computing
ICT Managed
Services
System integration continues to grow – ERP
spending the key driver
Fragmented market
Players are niche or narrowly focused only on
BFSI vertical
System
integration
2: Enterprise services
Market potential of $ 3bn
Huge opportunity in enterprise servics
3: Consumer Services
E-enablement of Indonesia starting now
Notes: Digital content excludes mobile content
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
4.5%, tokobagus
8.8%, Detik
8.6%, Kaskus
6.6% Kompas
4.0 %, Kapanlagi,
UV as % of total Internet users
UV as % of population
Indonesia
Top 5 Local Websites UV Per Month
One-stop sites perform
better when they have
both breath and depth
44.78% 40.96%
33.32%
20.75%
19.12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
UV as % of total Internet users
UV as % of population
Sanook
Kapook
Mthai
Manager
Thailand
Top 5 Local Websites UV Per Month
Local entertainment portals have
high following among local users
due to abundance of free content
available Pantip
• Huge gap exists on online service creation
3: Consumer Services
E-enablement of Indonesia starting now
Drivers Market Size (US$ mn)
1820
172
780
57
378
120
650
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2010 2015
E-Commerce
Ecosystem enablers
Digital Content
350
Rakuten‟s entry into Indonesia through JV
Other international players scouting for JVs –
Korean and US based
Indonesia online shopping % half of Thailand
E-commerce
(transaction
revneues)
Many app developers looking at Indonesia as a
base for global development
Huge interest from local entrepreneurs
Difficulty in monetization
Digital Content
Payment mechanisms still a concern in Indonesia
Mobile payments – issues in regulation
Ecosystem
enablers
Consumer e-enablement can potentially be $ 1.5 bn + market by 2015
Notes: Digital content excludes mobile content
For Indonesia alone, the impression is the world’s second largest,
after India, with a total impression of 3.76 billion and is one of four
countries that have advertising impressions in total more than 1
billion in one quarter (BuzzCity, July 18th).
Based on Indonesia mobile-centric market, “mobile content” is still limited by bandwidth availability
- they fit more into small-screen applications rather than band-width hungry apps.
Some key takeaway…
Big screen vs. small
Indonesia broadband market is predominantly “mobile” centric to
access voice & data content. Rich content is more likely goes
through big screens. RBT, video clip, games are booming within
mobile ecosystem while video streaming is more through PC/
netbook.
Full video vs. clips
Current market is keen of video clip, music, & games download
through mobile phones while full video is not feasible due to sub-
optimal network quality (long-wait or fail to load) i.e. high
bandwidth/ capacity requirements to have ideal ecosystem for
streaming rich content
Rise on digital ads
Some key takeaway…
Demand is
there..are we ready?
As the market has shown, the demand for “everything online” is
there – from a simple browsing to mobile payment & transaction.
The next question: Are we ready? In terms of basic infrastructure,
market education, human competency, and market readiness
Who drives
the “CAPEX”?
“CAPEX” is key function in delivering good-experience on data
centric services i.e. cross platform, cross devices, cross
geographical areas
The next question: Who drives the budget? As almost all of
Indonesian operators are in majority owned by foreign investment
and budget allocation is certainly governed by interest of the major
shareholders
15
Way forward
Focus on verticals/ cross
industry business models
Enter media and cloud
Short term
QoS management is critical
to sustaining market
momentum
VAS: Variety of „appiifed‟
services
Long-term
Leverage network-based
intelligence (smart enabler)
Smart investments
„Back to
basics‟
„Non Telco
revenues;
„Change in
Services
Model ‟
See you somewhere…online
Linkedin: Jayesh Easwaramony
Twitter: Jeaswaramony