frost&sullivan indonesia ict outlook for 2012 and beyond
TRANSCRIPT
Frost & SullivanFrost & Sullivan
TMT Practice TMT Practice –– Strategy and Business Plan Strategy and Business Plan Telecom, Media and Technology Practice
Outlook for 2012 and beyond
Agenda
1
2
State of the Industry 2011
ICT Outlook 2012
2
2011 State of the Industry: Summary
Telecom Operators are struggling to find growth in their core business – voice
Data revenue growth has been robust for most markets; however data deluge
has cost challenges
Telecom operator margins are declining so profitable data growth is key
The post PC era is here – with mobile dominating every discussion
(~ 150 mn smartphones and ~ 5 million tablets)
Cloud computing continued to gain momentum in the region with > 40% growth
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Rise of mega Platforms – they have hit Telco core e.g. SMS revenues
3
Cloud computing continued to gain momentum in the region with > 40% growth in revenues accruing to public cloud providers
Social web has truly arrived
IT spending would grow by around 7-8 percent in the year 2011 with cloud ready
architecture, analytics and social media as top of mind concerns
Fiber deployments in developed countries gained momentum in 2011 early LTE
deployments in 2011
Smart TV shipments gained momentum changing the plans of TV service
providers
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Mobile marketing grew at a scorching pace 11.
Agenda
1
2
State of the Industry
ICT Outlook 2012
4
#1: Post PC era will transform APAC into the largest mobile internet market
Global Trends Asia Pacific Trends
NetbookPCs
Tablets
~ 380mn
~ 480mn
~ 150mn~ 155mn
Mobile device sales Mobile internet growth
600 mn
1250 mn
5
DesktopPCs
PCs
Smartphones
2011 (e)
DesktopPCs
NetbookPCs
Smartphones
Tablets
2011 (e)
• In APAC, mobile devices have overtaken PCs in 2011• ‘Browsing minutes’ to exceed voice minutes by 2012 • Mobile internet market lead by China, India and Indonesia will double
~ 150mn
2011 2011
#1: Mobile Platforms hitting critical mass across smartphones and tablets
Mass market phase will aggravate the challenges for operators, vendors and
enterprises alike
• Initial seeding to monetize 3G networks
Market SeedingUpto 2008
Device Driven growth2009-11
Mass Market Phase2011- 2015
• More mobile BB devices than fixed BB devices
Video driving the growth of mobile date traffic
Data Traffic per user (Moore’s Law): Doubling
Networked Society2015+
Wide penetration of devices and networks
Cross industry business models
6
• Flat rate as a demand simulation mechanism
• Packet data exceeded voice data on mobile networks in 2010
• Apps are the new internet
nearly every 18 months
Smartphone is mass market
80% of internet users to have mobile internet
IT needs to support such devices
Initial creation of new business models –healthcare, automotive
Information ubiquity
#2: Platform play across the ICT sector would be the critical value generator
3 ecosystems are converging in the mobile computing ecosystem with diverse
approaches 1990s
Client-Server Computing
2000s 2010s 2020s
Cloud Computing
Web OS
PC as Entertainment/Personalized
PC as Workhorse
Laptops/Netbooks Tablets
2015
Computing Cycle
Collision Phase Convergence Phase
7
Mobile Cycle
Mobile internet
Email/ Web Web 2.0
2G Based Comm
Fixed BB Growth
Customized Tablets/phones Apps
ks Tablets
Smartphones
Digitization – Digital content overtook analog content
Web 3.0 + Aug Reality
Video overtook static pages
Internet Cycle
Mobile Cloud
Graph not to scale
Soft SIMs
Mobile devices sold> Fixed devices
#2: Platform play across the ICT sector would be the critical value generator
By 2015 there will 2-3 platform choices for each need and 2-3 overall integrated platforms.
Microsoft acquired Skype in 2011 and we can expect to see more action in the coming year.
In Asia Pacific, SKT re-organized to SKT and SK Planet to focus on platform business
globally.
Communication Platforms
Entertainment
Facebookplatform
Inhouse?
Apple’s platform Google platform
?? Skype (Acquired)
Itunes /app Youtube Xbox/PS3
8
Entertainment Platforms
Information Platforms (monetized by ads)
Commerce Platforms
Participation/SNS Platforms
Experience Platforms – OS + Web
Microsoft?
PayPal
RIM (Acquired?)
Operator alliance
Twitter?
Android
Itunes /app store
NFC enablement
NFC enablement
Youtube Xbox/PS3Hulu ?
Google +
iOS
#3: Fixed Broadband and 3G/LTE will provide options for high speed access
Fixed Broadband – Asia Pacific 3G/LTE – Asia Pacific
375mn
1.25 bn
9
212mn
2011(e) 2016(f)
466mn
2011(e) 2016(f)
• The fixed broadband market continues to grow in Asia Pacific region despite of the heavy penetration of 3G/LTE.
• MBB through dongles will touch 41mn in 2011 and reach around 100mn by 2014
In general, LTE technology enables mobile operators in mature markets
to command a significant price premium over their existing 3G services.
Most have increased data volume caps with introduction of service.
Tele2
(Sweden), 80, 74.2%
CSL (Hong
Kong), 21, 84.3%
60%
70%
80%
90%
4G
Pre
miu
m o
ve
r 3
G (
in %
)
Aggressive pricing charging large premiums for LTE service
Loose correlation
between advertised
speed and premium
#3: Fixed Broadband and 3G/LTE will provide options for high speed access
10
Note: MetroPCS has been omitted in the
chart as it has never offered 3G services.
Verizon Wireless
(USA), 8.5, 0.0%
TeliaSonera
(Sweden), 80, 25.1%
Telenor
(Sweden), 80, 14.3%
Vodafone
(Germany), 21.6, 42.9
%
T-Mobile
(Germany), 42.2, 37.0
%
NTT DoCoMo
(Japan), 37.5, 8.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
4G
Pre
miu
m o
ve
r 3
G (
in %
)
Average LTE Speed (in Mbps)
Conservative pricing: charging a premium for LTE but allowing for reduction due to churn and competition
Strategic pricing: charging based on specific constraints like network quality and expansionary plans
#4: “Internet of Things” will further accelerate as more and more devices, equipment and gadgets get connected creating opportunities for value creation and new business models
The Home Network Mobility on steroids Internet of things
‘S’ City
Planning
‘S’ Business‘S’ Citizen
‘S’ Buildings
11
• 8-10 Devices per home• Universal Remote
6 bn
• 5-6 Devices per individual • Touch as the default input
mechanism
30 bn
• 500 per sq km • Smart cities
44 bn
‘S’
Energy
‘S’ Mobility
• Rapid commercialization of enabling technologies• Demand for such services in select sectors driven by productivity requirements• Emergence of early business models to monetize the opportunity
#5: Cloud computing is set to become mainstream in Asia Pacific region. Platform-as-a-service (PaaS) is set to be the new battleground in the cloud computing industryHybrid clouds lead the way; Cloud adoption growing at a rapid pace
3,132
4,284
5,807
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
US
$ m
illio
ns71%
3%
16%
29%
12
APEJ Cloud Computing is market APEJ Cloud Computing is market expected to grow at 39% for the 2010expected to grow at 39% for the 2010--
2015 period.2015 period.
1,124
1,575
2,224
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US
$ m
illio
ns
10%
Not adopted yet Public cloud Private cloud Hybrid cloud
NoteSurvey done with IT Managers and CIOs in Australia, Hong Kong, China, India, Singapore and Malaysia in Q2 2011. 64% with >500 employees and 36% with 200 to 499 employees.
#5 Platform-as-a-service (PaaS) is set to be the new battleground in the cloud computing industry
SaaS
Current View (2010)
Yr1 Yr7
Device Presentation
Interim View (2011-12)
Application Management
End game
Software Reseller
Software Reseller
The cloud value chain will disintegrate and consolidate later
13
Source: Frost & Sullivan
PaaS
IaaS
Management
Tenancy Managers
Platform
Brokers/Aggregators
Synchronization
Hosters/Infrastructure
2-3 end to end cloud
players
Preferred partnerships of SPs
with software (
retail model)
#6: The world of TV is going to change forever – click for 1000 channels
Smart TV, Social TV and internet video will transform TV
14
TV gets social and viral TV becomes an app Free flow of internet video and broadcast video
#7: Big Data and Analytics will see reaching the chasm in 2012 and get deployed through variety of platforms and be enabled by emerging technologies
Contextual Mining
Network performan
ce & Utilization
Operations Research
Data is expected to increase dramatically over the next decade; Data from machine
communication and IOT is expected to exceed social media in the next half decade
Growth Areas @ Analytics� Queries, � Reporting, analytics,� Advance analytics,
15
Big Data
Utilization
Sentiment Analysis &
Text Analytics
Security
Industry Specific Solution
� Advance analytics,� CRM analytics,� Data warehouse generation � Organization financial /
strategy analytics� In-line and predictive analytics� Move more towards cloud
#8: Enterprise communications would become richer, more collaborative and increasingly move towards the cloud
RichCommunications
- Pervasive video- Context & presence aware
Increasing Globalization
Improving Infrastructure
Declining Telecom Costs
Shift from Capex to Opex
16
CollaborativeCommunications
- Conferencing- ESN
Cloud- Native and new
Globalization
Consumerization of IT
to Opex
Generation Y workforce
#9: Telco transformation will evolve
Telecom Transformation
Services/Business Transformation
Network Transformation
Customer Mgmt Transformation
OrganizationalTransformation
Telecom operators need to look at revenue growth and profitability growth
17
• Enterprise ICT Services
• Cloud • Data Centers • Mgd services • Unified comms
• Appifying Services
• Devices
• Segmentation of mobile broadband
• Demand and pricing management
• Migration to LTE
• Backhaul optimization
• IP Migration
• Faster rollout of services
• Customer centricity
• Automation/ IT Factory
Protect/ New Revenues Reduce cost per bit Increase agility Be ready
• Process re-engineering
• Knowledge acquisition
• Metric definition
#9 Telcos should be a pragmatic pipe and invest effectively
Telecom operators need to look at revenue growth and profitability growth
Smart Pipe Strategy
If you are so smart , why aren’t you rich ?
-Nicholas Taleib, The Black Swan
Dumb Pipe Strategy
People reward difficult complex behavior
more than simple behavior, but simple
behavior is more effective - Warren Buffet
Pragmatic Pipe
18
Pragmatic Pipe
#9: Consumer’s communication behaviour is changing
Communication doesn’t mean voice and SMS any more
19
Sharing
• Active sharing
• All – IP networks
Small Cells– rapid scaling of sites
• Light Radio pioneered by ALU, HP and Freescale shows how SDR, VLSI and smart power management will change the scale and scope of BTS
• Antenna collapsed into the cell – the cube can be as small as 10 cms
#9: Network transformation is key to achieve the ambitions of a pragmatic pipe
Metamorphosis of networks – Small is Big
20
Femtos
• USB drive form factor for femtos
• Femtos can be added to other devices like gateways
More of the same
• Spectrum refarming
• Hetnet
• Offloads
#10: Digital Engagement will change marketing
Gamification So-Lo-Mo Mobile marketing
21
#11: Security will be the Achilles Heel
Huge security issues – in every data that is shared
22
IBM : No passwords by 2016
#12: ICT as an enabler will continue to gain momentum as telcos, SIs, ISVs etc. move beyond pure ICT industry to drive growth, value and margins in the future.
SMART LIVING
SMART PUBLIC SPACE
Urban Planning
Retail
AutomotiveHealthcare
Electric Vehicles
Financial Services
23
*****
Solar PV Cells
Virtual Shopping
Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR)
Morphing
From 2D to 3D
HDTV
Consumer Electronics Energy Biotechnology
#13: World of flexible materials- Sneak preview for 2013
24
Summary
Penetration
Till 2010
Growth in connected
devices
Till 2020
0.9
5
6
80
Connections (bn) Connected devices (bn)
25
Explosive growth >12% Mature Growth
Telecom Outside
Telecom inside
4-5%
� Smart enabler � Acquisition focused
Thank You
26
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