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Indonesia Automotive Outlook: 2013Indonesia Automotive Outlook: 2013
Presented byPresented by
Vivek VaidyaVivek VaidyaVivek VaidyaVivek Vaidya
Vice President of Automotive & Transportation Practice, Asia PacificVice President of Automotive & Transportation Practice, Asia Pacific
1717thth January 2013January 2013
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CONTENTS
Indonesia Automotive Recap of 2012
Indonesia Automotive Outlook 2013
2
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Indonesia hit the 1 million unit volume the first time in the history
894.164
1.116.000
794.081
1.450.000
600.123 618.000
Total Industry Volume (TIV), 2011 and 2012
3 3
2011 2012 (f)
Indonesia Thailand Malaysia
Indonesia surpassed 1-million unit sales and important landmark to gain importance globally
Thailand regained number 1 position, after spectacular recovery from flood-crisis in 2011
Malaysia in the other hand were keeping the similar volume with the tightening finance policy
Source: AAF, Gaikindo, MAA, TAIA (2012 ytd Nov), Frost & Sullivan Analysis. Note: All figures are rounded.
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541.475 601.945780.500
223.235292.218
335.500
2010 2011 2012 (f)
Indonesia : Growth in 2012 supported by strong economic factors, successful
new model launches and postponement of fuel price increase
764,710 894,164 1,116,000 (e) Positive domestic economic environment
Postponement of subsidized fuel restriction and
price increment
Increasing buying power from middle class segment
Introduction of many new car models
11.2% 14.6%
30.9%
16.9%
29.6%
24.7%Total
Increment on down payment minimum rate
Partial restriction of subsidized fuel to CV segment
Slowing down of export commodities and mining
Restraints
DriversTotal Industry Volume (TIV), Indonesia (2010-2012)
4
2010 2011 2012 (f)
Passenger Vehicle Commercial Vehicle
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
U
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i
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s
Monthly Sales Trend (2010 2012)
2010
2011
2012
4
Source: Gaikindo (2012 ytd Nov), Frost & Sullivan Analysis. Note: All figures are rounded.
Slowing down of export commodities and mining
industry
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Sedan
4,4%
4X2
4X4
1,0%
2012
Indonesia : MPV and Hatchback (4X2) remained the largest segment, segment
shares virtually unchanged from 2011
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
10.000
100.000
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Passenger Vehicle Monthly Sales, Indonesia (2012)
Festivity
holidaysEnforcement of
higher minimum
down payment
Indonesia Intl
Motor Show 2012
4 X 2
Passenger Vehicle Market Share
5
4X2
94,6%
Sedan
4,5%
4X2
94,6%
4X4
0,9%
20110
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
100
1.000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
T
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Total PV Sedan 4X2 4X4
5
Source: Gaikindo(2012 ytd Nov), Frost & Sullivan analysis. Data is for Passenger Vehicles only. Note: All figures are rounded.
4 X 4
Sedan
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Indonesia : Growth rate in each segment was spectacular, with highest
volume growth in 4X2 segment
Vehicle Segment 2011 Total Sales 2012(f) Total Sales % growth (2011-2012)
Sedan 26,622 34,100 28.1%
4X2 569,802 738,600 29.6%
4X4 5,521 7,800 41.3%
Total PV 601,945 780,500 29.1%
Passenger Vehicle Segment sales Indonesia, 2011 2012(f)
6 6
4X2 and 4X4 segments successful model launches drove the segment volumes
New models : Suzuki Ertiga, Nissan Evalia, Chevrolet Spin, Honda Brio
Upgrades : Toyota Avanza, Daihatsu Xenia, Honda CR-V etc.
Sedan segment recovered from last year drop as the part supply from Thailand and Japan
recovered, boosting sales of low and medium sedan category (alike of Vios, City, Civic and Camry)
Source: Gaikindo (2012 ytd Nov), Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
M
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Commercial Vehicle Monthly Sales, Indonesia (2012)
Indonesia commercial vehicle : Pickup and truck sales growth supported by
manufacturing and retail sectors
Vehicle Segment % growth (2011-2012)
Bus 2.4%
Pickup/Truck 15.4%
Double Cab 8.3%
Total CV 14.8%
Passenger Vehicle Market Share
Festivity
holidays
Export and some
industry slowing
down
7
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
M
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Total CV Bus Pickup/Truck Double Cab
Bus
1,3%
Pickup/
Truck
93,0%
Double
Cab
5,7%
2012
Bus
1,4%
Pickup
/Truck
92,5%
Double
Cab
6,1%
2011
7Source: Gaikindo (2012 ytd Nov), Frost & Sullivan analysis. Data is for commercial vehicles only Note: All figures are rounded.
Passenger Vehicle Market Share
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Toyota, Suzuki and Honda gain market shares while Mitsubishi and Daihatsu
lose market share despite volume growth
13,9% 15,0% 13,3%
9,3% 10,6% 11,3%
8,0% 5,1% 6,2%
4,9% 6,3% 6,0%
3,1% 3,2% 3,0%
8,5% 9,5% 9,2%
Vehicle Market Share by OEMs (2010-2012)
Suzuki
Honda
Nissan
Isuzu
Others
1,116,000 (f)764,710 894,164 Toyota retains market leadership with
market share of about 36%
Market share up by 1% as compared to 2011
due to successful launch of all new Avanza
Daihatsu has shown good volume growth
due to strong performance of Xenia but the
market share drops by 1%
8
36,7% 34,7% 36,3%
15,5% 15,6% 14,6%
13,9% 15,0% 13,3%
2010 2011 2012
8
Toyota
Daihatsu
Mitsubishi Suzuki gains 1.1% market share with the high
sales of its new MPV model Ertiga.
Honda gains 1% share due to strong showing
of Brio and new CR-V
Mitsubishi, in the other hand, has lost 1.5%
market share.
Mitsubishi may decide to focus on passenger
car segment a lot more to reverse the trend
in 2013
Source: various media (2012 ytd Nov) Frost & Sullivan analysis. Note: All figures are rounded
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Healthy domestic led economic growth supported the automotive sector to
increase its volumes
1,7%2,3%
3,8%
1,9%
2,9%3,4%
-1,4%
1,6%
2,9%3,5%
-1,3%
1,4%
2,8%3,2%
Q1
'09
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
'10
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
'11
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
'12
Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP Growth Rates, 2009- 2012(f)
2009: 4.6% 2010: 6.2% 2011: 6.5% 2012(f): 6.2%
9 9
-2,4%
-1,4% -1,3%
Agriculture,
Livestock,
Forestry and
Fishery
15,1%
Mining and
Quarrying
12,1%
Manufacturing
23,7%
Construction
10,3%
Trade, Hotel
and Restaurant
13,7%
Others
25,1%
Economic Activity Breakdown, 2012(f)
Source: Central Bureau of Statistic (2012 ytd Q3); Analysis: Frost & Sullivan
Indonesia s economic growth expected to
be slightly above 6%
This is marginal decline as compared to
2011 due to the slowing export demand for
commodity and restriction of mining
product export
Manufacturing sector still remaining the
biggest contributor; construction sector saw
high growth in 2012
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Model launches in 2012: most covering the biggest segment 4x2 with various
body type MPV, city car, SUV
Suzuki
Ertiga
Toyota
Nav1
Mazda
MPV & SUV (~12 new models) Sedan & City Cars (~7) CV
Honda
All New CR-V
Volkswagen
Mitsubishi
Outlander
Toyota
All New Camry
Honda
All New Civic
Suzuki
All New Swift Chevrolet
Suzuki
Mega Carry
Extra
Mazda
New BT-50
10
Mazda
Biante
Nissan
Evalia
Chevrolet
Spin
Volkswagen
New Caravelle
Volkswagen
New Touareg
Audi
Q3
Hyundai
New Santa Fe
Suzuki
New Grand
Vitara (facelift)
Mitsubishi
Mirage
Ford
All New Focus
Peugeot
208
Honda
Brio
Chevrolet
All New
Colorado
Ford
New Ranger
Isuzu
Giga F-series
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CONTENTS
Indonesia Automotive Recap of 2012
Indonesia Automotive Outlook 2013
11
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0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
2010 2011 2012 (f) 2013 (f)
Real GDP
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
Construction
Trade, Hotel, & Restaurant
Others
Economic Outlook 2013 : GDP growth expected to be about 6% fuelled by
domestic consumption
Economic Growth Rate, 2009 2012 (f)
12
2010 2011 2012 (f) 2013 (f)
12
GDP growth is expected to remain stable around 5 6%
Will rely strongly on domestic economy and the inflowing investmentReal GDPReal GDP
Still the biggest contributing sector
Shall see some growth with the condition of realization happening in 2013 from potential investment
ManufacturingManufacturing
With the growing domestic economy, the possibly growing sectors would be the sectors contributing much to the domestic economy, likely will be constructions; agriculture, livestock, forestry & fishery; electricity, gas and water supply
Growing sectors
Growing sectors
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ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) initiative is likely to benefit Indonesia
Areas Level Impact
SalesLargest market in ASEAN. The high growth phase is expected to continue. AEC will not
be impacting growth as such.
ProductionThe local manufacturing is likely to see a big jump as Indonesia becomes more
attractive as a regional hub for production
13
Market ConcentrationIncrease in competitive activity as Indonesia becomes more attractive in terms of a
large market, lower costs and regional access
Retail NetworkIncrease in number of dealers as new players enter the market and tackle the
geographic complexity of the market
Vehicle ExportsExports are likely to grow as AEC and FTAs will make it easier for OEMs to set up base
and supply to other markets
Supplier BaseThe relatively under-developed vendor base is likely to get a boost as more OEMs
come in to set up assembly and cater to the region
Very favorable No impact Less favorable
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Indonesia Auto 2013: Economic-driven marketIndonesia market growth will rely on economical drivers
Indonesias growth in automotive sector in recent years has largely being impacted by the nature and long
term factors. They have driven the market previously, and still will drive the market on 2013 onwards.
Positive growing economy, has been above 6%, and predicted to be still at least 6% for 2013
Stable inflation, exchange rate, lending rateGood economy
Some minor issues from regulations arising and corruption cases; but so far have not been impacting much to automotive and the market
Anticipation in 2013 for 2014 general electionStable politics
14
Along better economy, arising the population of middle class, supported by huge young population
Indonesia is predicted to have golden productivity period up to 2025; which will create more potential middle classes
Growing middle class
Increasing income level
Indonesias growing economy is still very attractive for more investment
Automotive sector investment reach 70% growth rate, valued more than US$ 1.3 billion as of 3rd quarter of 2012
2013 investment flow is expected to still grow around 30%
Continuous investment
flow
Proven by increasing domestic consumption
2013 economy may as well strongly rely to its high domestic consumption
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Indonesia Auto 2013: 6 key factors would impact growth in 2013
The official announcement of the program might boost the market as there will be more affordable vehicles as options
LEC-LCGC Program
Official electricity tariffs increment taken place
Options of restriction or price increment on fuelRollback of subsidies
Ever-high increment on minimum labor wages might impact the production cost of supplying industry
Increasing standard labor minimum wages
15 15
supplying industrylabor minimum wages
Enforcement of minimum down payment to sharia financing by April 2013 will limit finance options to marketVehicle financing policy
Increment of higher standard to Euro3 or 4 might need procedural cost, impacting to higher vehicle selling price
Emission standard
Possible increment on tax: title transfer fee, progressive tax or luxury tax increasing ownership cost
Increasing vehicle tax rate
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Commercial Vehicles
335.500
Commercial Vehicles
360.000
Total Industry Volume, 2012-2013 (Indonesia)
Frost & Sullivan projects TIV to reach 1.2 million with 7.5% growth rate
7.3%
TIV :
1,116,000
TIV :
1,200,000
16
Passenger Vehicles
780.500
Passenger Vehicles
840.000
335.500
2012 2013 (f)
16
7.6%
7.3%
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Assumptions for 1.2 million TIV forecast
Positive Factors
Stable economic and political conditions in Indonesia
Investments in construction and infrastructure continue at the same rate
Timely implementation of LCE-LCGC program
17
Timely implementation of LCE-LCGC program
Negative Factors
Minimal impact of roll back of fuel subsidy and vehicle finance policy
Uncertainties in global economy
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Passenger Vehicles would continue to grow to reach 840,000 units in 2013
Total Industry Volumes by Vehicle Segments, 2012 and 2013
Passenger vehicles :
780,500
Passenger Vehicles :
840,000
4X2
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Sedan
4X4
10%
7%
7%
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2012 2013 (f)
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4X2 segment will remain the biggest segment as further market development shall be done for models
launched in 2012 where most of them are in category 4X2.
4X2 segment would remain the main driver in 2013 as well due to favorable duty regime and
impending LCGC launches which would be in the same segment
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Commercial Vehicles market size would touch 360,000 in 2013
Total Industry Volumes by Vehicle Segments, 2012 and 2013
7%
8%
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Pickup
Double Cab
Bus 6%
Commercial Vehicle :
355,500
Commercial Vehicles
: 360,000
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2012 2013 (f)
19
7%
Pick-up and small trucks would grow due to growth in manufacturing and retail sector, which is largely
driven by consumption in domestic sector
Heavy trucks likely to grow on strong performance of construction and infrastructure sector which is largely
driven by investments in this sector
Pickup/Truck
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Conclusions
Indonesian Automotive market beat the predictions to reach 1 million units in 2012
Indonesia automotive 2013 will likely go up slow to 1.2 million units if economic conditions remain stable, investment flow and infrastructure
20 20
Indonesia automotive 2013 will likely go up slow to 1.2 million units if economic conditions remain stable, investment flow and infrastructure continues, there is timely announcement of LEC-LCGC program and impact of fuel subsidy roll back and vehicle financing policy is minimal
However, stringent policies such as fuel subsidy roll back, vehicle financing are implemented or if there is slowdown in global economic conditions volumes may decline and slip below 1 million units in 2013