frroughguide

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RESILIENCE and URBAN PLANNINGa Rough GuideSeptember 2007

William VeerbeekDINarch RotterdamDura Vermeer Business Development

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RISK: risk concept is currupted through uncertainty and knowledge gaps

R pi,i j i j= ,i I j J! !,where

PROBABILITY: Increasing uncertainty eliminates a probability dis-tributionIMPACT: We only know to a limited extend what impact means, yet we use it all too often in our assessments (risk-maps)

RESILIENCE*: Concept to help us cope with uncertainties...

*Buzzword alarm

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RESILIENCE: concept found throughout in Nature

RESILIENT PROPERTIES: adaptation, redundancy, robustness, self-organization, complexity, robustness, emergent behavior, ‘gracefull degredation’, etc.RESILIENT PROPERTIES ARE OFTEN FOUND IN DECENTRALIZED SYSTEMS

RESILIENCE ENGINEERING: DESIGNING RESILIENT SYSTEMS!

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RESILIENCE: 2 important concepts:

ROBUSTNESS: ability to withstand impactADAPTIVE CAPACITY: ability to adjust to new conditions

MODERN CITY INHERITS MANY CONCEPTS BELONGING TO RESILIENCE:CITY = COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM WITH VARIOUS DEGREES OF:-high degree of redundancy > robustness-self-organizing behavior (social, economic, technical) > adaptation-various degrees of bottom-up behavior-complex system-city’s sustainability a function of emergent behavior

WE CAN VIEW THE CITY AS A ‘SOCIAL NETWORK’ CONSISTING OF NUMEROUS INTERACTING PARTS

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RESILIENCE: Redundancy vs optimization

GRACEFULL DEGREDATION: ability loose performance graduallyThink how this is possible? ANSWER: decentralization

POLDERS AND DYKE-SYSTEMS ARE DESIGNED FROM OPTIMIZATION STRATEGY:FAILURE> IMMEDIATE AND COMPLETE DISASTER

DISASTER FOR AN INHABITANT, A CITY, A COUNTRY?:RESILIENCE IS OFTEN A MATTER OF PERSPECTIVE!

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RESILIENCE ENGINEERING: A Design Choice

DESIGN STRATEGY OFTEN A RESULT OF EXISTING ‘CULTURE’STRONG BELIEF IN TECHONOLOGY + RECOURSES > High degree of optimization, low degree of resilienceWEAK BELIEF IN TECHONOLOGY AND/OR NO RECOURSES> Low de-gree of optimization, high degree of risilience

HOUSING IN BANGLADESH:low life-cycle time, high resource availability (wood, reed, etc.)

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INCREASING UNCERTAINTY > DIFFERENT PLANNING APPROACH

EVOLUTION OF TOP-DOWN LINEAR > KNOWLEDGE INTENSIVE FEEDBACKi) Traditional ‘Waterfall’ model

ii) Layer approach (current practise)

iii) Rapid prototyping (future practise?)

LINEAR PLANNING-Stable condtions-Requirements well understood-Experts add requirements-Low amount of stakeholders

LAYER APPROACH-Coherent relations between layers-Requirements well understood-Envelopes provide flexibility-Higher degree of stakeholder involvement

ITERATIVE APPROACH-Changing conditions-Integration of many factors-High degree of complexity-Needs stakeholder involvement

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TOP-DOWN PLANNING > SPATIAL COHERENCE?

SPATIAL COHERENCE DOESN’T NECESSARILY IMPLY RESILIENCEConcentration often leads to increase vulnerability

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INCREASING URBAN RESILIENCE IS URGENT!

RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS:1800: 3% world population lived in cities2000: 47% world population lived in cities

TRADITIONAL APPROACH IS INFLEXIBLE (NO ‘UNDO’ IN URBAN FABRIC)-RESILIENCE needs to be ‘built-in’ into a system

Halle (Ger): shrinking 25% after fall Berlin WallLas Vegas (US): 83.3% growth in 1990-2000

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RESILIENCE EXTENDS TO MANY DISCIPLINES (E.G. REGIONAL ECONOMY)

CONNECTIVITY OF CITIES WILL DETERMINE ECONOMIC RESILIENCEMap network > identify dependencies between economic agentsMeasure economic flow between companies

Wall, R., and v.d. Knaap, B.,(2007), Archinomics, Towards a Sustainable World-City System, Holcim Conference, Tongji University, Shanghai, China

A: total connections

B: basic material connections

C: manufacturing connections

D: trade connections

E: producer-services connections

Dataset: 9243 connections

2/3 of global GDP

INDICATORS: Diversification, Multipliers, Location Quotients, etc.

flow model for economic agents providing

quantitative anlysis of network topology

and interactions between agents

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RESILIENCE: still badly understood:

LITTLE KNOW ABOUT QUANTITATIVE WAYS TO MEASURE RESILIENCE> DIFFICULT TO ENGINEER RESILIENCE (COST-BENEFIT)

RESILIENT TO WHAT? What is the threat?RESILIENT IN WHICH DOMAIN? Economic resilience, Ecologic resilience, etc.RESILIENT TO WHAT EXTEND? Recovery period, effects of changesRESILIENT TO WHAT SCALE-LEVEL? Individual vs System

NEED FOR RESILIENCE INDICATORS > IMPACT MODELImpact model = Primary Economic Damage model!

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FLOOD RESILIENCE AND SPATIAL PLANNING: A COMPLEX RELATION

System Scales

responses:(robustness, adaptation)

urban

catchment

building

residual effect

residual effect



residual hazard

residual hazard

drivers(affected by climate

change)

RESILIENCE DEFINED BY SPILL-OVER EFFECTS BETWEEN SCALESespecially important when reacting to residual hazard (extreme events)

Zevenbergen, C., Gersonius, B., Veerbeek, W..,(2007), Urban Flood Management: A system’s approach, forthcoming

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Hamburg, Germany

FLOOD RESILIENCE: RESIDUAL EFFECTS BETWEEN SCALES

Dura Vermeer, (2004), Gouden Kust, Maasbommel, Netherlands. DuraVermeer, (2005), Drijvende Kas, Naaldwijk, Netherlands

Bypassproject, Zudphen, Netherlands

Dura Vermeer, (2004), Impression Flood Resilient Neighborhood

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spill-over effects

spill-over effects

VERY LITTLE KNOWLEDGE ON INTERACTION BETWEEN MEASURES

Housing-level

Urban-level

Catchment-level

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FLOOD RESILIENCE: INTERPLAY BETWEEN DOMAINS

NUMEROUS SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS DETERMINE FLOOD RESILIENCEVulnerability: Extensive analysis of urban fabric

Veerbeek, W., et al., (2007), Analysis of the river area for Dordrecht

Drivers: Flood scenario’s including extreme events

A: materials

B: functions

C: ground space indices

D: life-cycle

E: sector distribution

F: Value

G: Electric stations

H: Typologies

I: Primary Damage

etc.

MODEL INTEGRATION

Veerbeek, W. et al., (2007), Analysis of the river area for Dordrecht

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FLOOD RESILIENCE: COMBINING ECONOMIC MODELS WITH GIS

Veerbeek, W., (2006), Economic Flow: a topological approach for the Haarlemmermeerpolder

INFRASTRUCTURE AND UTILITY LIFELINESRegional Input-Output models > GIS-based infra network

Nelen & Schuurmans, simulation of a breach in the Haarlemmermeerpolder

SECONDARAY DAMAGE ASSESSMENTRegional impact sectorial economic impact caused by flow interruption

Dependancy analysis economic relation affected region > adjacent regions

Substitution behavior post-disaster economic reconfiguration (= adaptation)

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FLOOD RESILIENCE: INTEGRATING GROWTH SCENARIOS

URBAN GROWTH PREDICTIONS ARE INCREASING IN PRECISIONStatistical growth models > GIS-based land-use models

Simulated growth Pattern fo Washington DC (2000), generated by SLEUTH-model

INTEGRATING SCENARIOSSprawl large ecological footprints, recourse intensive (infrastructure)

Spatial claims transformation production > services

Policies outcomes of different policies can be studied

Macro and Micro behavior/goals behavior based models

Climate Scenarios factor analysis: factor contribution > resilience

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V.d. Vegt, C, Korteweg, J. A., Lieshout, R., (2006), Amsterdamse Economische Verkenningen

ECONOMY > SPATIAL CLAIMSFootprint investigation per sector

Eurostat, (2006), age distribution in 2001 and 2025

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESAging population > Different requirements

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FLOOD RESILIENCE: OVERLAPPING POLICIES AND JURISDICTIONS

DEVELOPMENT CAN BE A STRUGLE!Identification of 47 overlapping plans Arnhem Region (NL)

Casabella, N., Franzen, A., Pieterse, S.F., Veerbeek, W., 2001, H2EURO: Analysis of existing Plans Rhine-Ruhr region

City of Berkely, E-911 Dispatch and R-911 Notification Challenge Scenario: incident-jurisdiction map

Potential Development Speed (combined factors)

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FLOOD RESILIENCE: FROM STATIC PLANS TO TOOLS

STATIC DEVELOPMENT HARDLY FEASIBLEChanging conditions > flexible plansGridlock because of complexity/stakeholder involvementProblem: creating a consistent spatial policy

BVR, KAAP3, DINarch, Robbert de Koning, (2003) Ontwikkelingsplanologie: de praktijk in beeld

Impression Patchwork area

Toolset typologies

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FLOOD RESILIENCE: AGENDA

i) IMPLEMENTING GROWTH / SHRINKAGE STRATEGIES-Increasing vulnerability of people/economic backbone-Ensuring variety, integration of scales, sustainable backbones

ii) REDEVELOPMENT ISSUES-Brownfield redevelopment-Post-war urban area’s-Minimize effects of bottlenecks > river floods, lodging (flash floods) iii) DEVELOPMENT OF TOOLS-Connecting (regional) economic models with flood models-Behavioral (multi-agent) models -Combining economic scenario’s with climate scenario’s

iv) SUSTAINABILITY-Requirements urban resilience not necesserily create sustainability-Integration of resilient strategies with sustainability

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FLOOD RESILIENCE AND SPATIAL PLANNING: A NETWORK APPROACH

TAKE HOME MESSAGE:

>DECENTRALIZE YOUR RECOURSES>DESIGN YOUR RECOURSES TO BE ADAPTABLE>ORGANIZE BOTTOM-UP>THINK LONG TERM>INVEST IN SCENARIO-RESEARCH

MANY OF THE CONCEPTS DO NOT ONLY PROTECT YOUR CITY AGAINST FLOODS > THEY ENHANCE THE OVERALL RESILIENCE TOWARDS ANY CHANGES!-Yet, resilience engineering is still in its infancy

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PRACTICAL APPLICATION: UFM-DORDRECHT

GOAL: INFLUENCE DAMAGE CURVEFirst: generate the damage curve. No available model >Develop model

1. 1:4000 f lood: Damage Distribution

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GOAL: INFLUENCE DAMAGE CURVEFirst: generate the damage curve. No available model >Develop model

‘Extreme event’: Damage Distribution

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GOAL: INFLUENCE DAMAGE CURVEFirst: generate the damage curve. No available model >Develop modelThen: replace individual damage curves>Implement dry/wet-proofing schemes

frroughguide

Technology

urban resilience

flood resilience

resilience difficult

ecologic resilience

urban fabricresilience

complex relation resilience

system page

forthcoming page