fsap ’ s in africa common issues & lessons ann rennie december 2003
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FSAP’s in Africa
Common Issues & Lessons
Ann Rennie
December 2003
Background
What is the financial sector assessment program (FSAP)? Commenced in 1999 in wake of Asian crisis Joint IMF/WB initiative with 75+ cooperating
institutions 90 + FSAPs conducted to date
(OECD,emerging and IDA) Voluntary; Results confidential
The FSAP program seeks to…
Identify strengths & vulnerabilities
Assess overall soundness and stability
Highlight linkages between macroeconomy & financial sector
Ascertain development and TA needs
Make policy recommendations
Building blocks
Assembly of data on system functioning Including scale, liquidity, efficiency, reach, exposure
Interviews with market participants Standards and codes assessments
Detailed structured discussions with authorities
Formal stress-testing
Overall assessment
Codes are selected from…
Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision (BCP)
Transparency (Monetary & Financial Policies) Systemically Important Payment Systems (CPSIPS) Securities Regulation (IOSCO) Insurance (IAIS) AML-CFT (FATF)
Other: Accounting & Auditing; Corporate Governance; Insolvency and Creditor Rights
Frequency of codes assessed in FSAPs
0 20 40 60 80 100
AML
IAIS
IOSCO
CPSIPS
MFPT
BCP
Percentage
to Dec 2002
Average codes assessed : 4.9 (3.6 for Africa)
Issues in code assessments
Not all relevant codes can be covered Need to be supplemented by less formal work
Cross-sectoral issues Interaction between different sectors Regulatory overlap or underlap
Coverage gaps e.g. contractual savings/social insurance
(financial sector aspects); deposit insurance
Codes are developed by regulatory bodies and reflect their partial focus
Mechanical code diagnosis may miss national features
Excessive focus on good “ratings”
Issues in Code Assessments
Gaps in standards
No standards for key stability & development issues such as: Macrofinancial crisis management Competition environment, Tax, quasi-tax and subsidy issues Access to financial services Missing markets Overall legal framework
The future: less reliance on full code assessments Certain aspects of detailed assessments may be
inapplicable in small, less developed systems
Attempt to retain enough of the essence of the code without excessively detailed questioning or ratings
Select only most relevant codes and transfer additional resources to specific country needs
Stress Tests: Crisis Prevention & Prediction
Can FSAPs predict a crisis?
Is the system in “Zone of vulnerability”?
Identifying likely channels of vulnerability
Crisis management mechanisms
Stress Testing
Look at sectoral pattern of lending, market portfolio.
Must be bank-by-bank: averages can conceal
The essence: recalculate bank’s capital after shock
Impact of shock on loan performance usually judgmental
Stress testing
Typical shocks: exchange rate, interest rate, liquidity, commodity prices, housing prices, quality of loan classification
Scale of shocks: historical data Correlations: usually scenarios(More elaborate procedures used for some advanced
economies)
(mainly banking system)
Developmental Aspects
Market Infrastructure for Access Collateral and bankruptcy laws; competent and impartial
courts; information infrastructure (e.g. accounting and auditing, rating agencies, credit registries)
Monopoly Power and Related Distortions Detecting evidence of market power Positive and negative policy
Nonbank Intermediaries & Organized Markets Entry and legislative environment Minimum scale issues and globalization
Aspects of the development dimension
Special Institutions for AccessE.g. development banks, microcreditIssues include subsidies, burdensome regulation
Taxation of Financial Intermediation Distorting or inhibiting subsectors or key
instruments
The Demand SideAssessing unmet needs of corporates &
households (not easy)
Outputs
Aide Mémoire Working document, not for publication
FSSA (IMF Board) Financial sector stability assessment
FSA (WB Board) Financial sector assessment
Technical Notes on selected issues
Detailed standards & codes assessments
ROSCs Summary report on observance of standards & codes
SSA Countries Assessed (13)
Cameroon Cote d’ Ivoire Gabon Ghana
(+update) Kenya Mauritius Mozambique
Nigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia
Common Issues
Generally small, bank-dominated financial systems Credit risks substantial : high risk concentrations, high
level of NPL’s, problems with contract enforcement and loan recoveries
History of state ownership & intervention in FI’s—though evolving to private ownership
Intermediation margins are high Access to financial services is limited Macroeconomic stability remains a problem in several
countries Vulnerable to external shocks: commodity prices, FX
rates, donor funding
M2/GDP
0102030405060708090
% o
f GDP
0.0% 50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
250.0%
300.0%
South Africa
Mauritius
Zambia
Uganda
Tanzania
Senegal
Ghana
Nigeria
Gabon
Cameroon
% of GDP
Banks
Insurance
Other NBFI
Pension
Microfinance
Structure of the Financial System
Role of the State
Potential conflicts of interest: state as shareholder, regulator, borrower, depositor
High, though diminishing, state ownership in a number of countries (banks, insurance, DFIs) Many costly failures: high NPLs, poorly
governed, overstaffed, inefficient Directed lending to meet political,
development, and patronage objectives
Issues in Regulation & Supervision
Focus on formal compliance (check box approach); insufficient attention to quality of management, governance, risk management and internal controls
Lack of adequate enforcement powers or unwillingness to use powers
Lack of effective independence Regulatory forbearance Poor information exchange with domestic and
foreign supervisors
Regulation & Supervision -recommendations
Strengthen licensing procedures, applying strict “fit and proper”criteria
Assess both quantitative & qualitative factors Adopt proactive approach, acting preemptively upon
detecting increased risks Adopt risk-based approach, focusing on riskiest areas
and institutions Act promptly to resolve FI’s to preserve stability and
minimize resolution costs Ensure accurate and timely information disclosure Ensure accountability of shareholders, Boards of
Directors, and senior management
Limited Access to Financial Services
In most African FSAP countries, <10% of the population has a bank account
Banks typically limited to large cities due to high costs/low returns of maintaining large branch networks
Credit often restricted to a small set of established corporate borrowers due, inter-alia, to legal & judicial weaknesses
Rural Finance
Challenges
Dispersed populations; poor transport & communications> high cost of delivery
High risks associated with rain-fed agriculture & commodity price fluctuations
Land tenure systems which limit value of land as collateral
History of state subsidized lending & low recoveries
Development Finance Institutions
Public Development Banks have poor track record: Poor governance, political interference in
lending decisions Poor financial performance Do not overcome market failures or promote
development History of costly failures of DFIs
Microfinance Degree of development varies widely, but growing
rapidly Outreach exceeds that of banking systems in several
countries, though remains small in terms of total assets
Credit unions, NGO-sponsored credit-only MFIs predominant models
Group lending & character-based techniques often used to achieve high repayment rates
Sustainable, commercially viable institutions extremely rare
Countries searching for appropriate regulatory framework
Microfinance: recommendations Financial Systems Approach
Wide range of providers (regulated & non-regulated)
Serving diverse clientele with variety of instruments and services
Integration into commercial financial system necessary to achieve sustainability and large-scale outreach
Light and flexible regulatory approach required , particularly in early stages of development
Regulation & Supervision of MFIs No agreed standards — early days — but
pragmatism advised:Regulation & supervision have significant costs
Need to distinguish between non-prudential and prudential regulation
May be unwise to burden bank supervisors with
responsibility for a large number of small institutions they cannot effectively supervise
Regulation & Supervision of MFIs
Small, community-based intermediaries should not necessarily be barred from taking deposits simply because they are too small or remote to supervise effectively—may be less risky than alternatives (cash, livestock)
Authorities should not try to dictate particular form/s of institutional development
Interest rate caps are inappropriate to microfinance Credit-only NGO MFIs do not need to be regulated Politically-directed, government subsidized credit programs
may contaminate the environment for non-government MFIs “Benign neglect” may be a viable and practical alternative to
active regulation & supervision in early stages of development of microfinance
Recommendations to improve access
Address legal, regulatory and judicial weaknesses
Foster competition and diversity in the financial system
Develop credit information systems
Use technology to increase outreach at a reasonable cost
Contractual Savings
Life insurance and pension funds play key role in financial sector development: Mobilization of long term resources Major investors in capital markets Provide funding for other NBFI’s (leasing, factoring, housing finance)
But contractual savings relatively undeveloped in most African countries (South Africa, Mauritius are notable exceptions)
Insurance
Insurance penetration is generally low (1-2%), and dominated by general insurance (auto)
Public sector ownership has caused poor performance in many countries.
Controls on premiums, investments, and reinsurance have hindered development
Despite high concentration ratios, many markets overpopulated and highly competitive with many small, under-reserved companies with high expense ratios
Regulation & supervision often weak
Insurance-Common recommendations
Strengthen regulation and supervision under an independent supervisory authority
Privatize remaining state-controlled companies Promote industry consolidation where appropriate Increase minimum capital and tighten licensing
requirements Close weak companies which are unable to
implement a time-bound remedial action plan Lift unnecessary controls on premia, investments
and re-insurance
Pensions
Public funds dominate, though South Africa, Mauritius, and Kenya have well-developed private pillars
Many schemes face rising & unsustainable deficits Investment returns weak or negative:
Government directed investments Illiquid real-estate investments Maturity mismatches Absence of international portfolio diversification Lack of investment opportunities & investments
Low coverage—typically <10% of labor force High administrative expenses
Recommendations: Pensions Fundamental reform of public systems required
to ensure long-term sustainability Shield fund governance from political
interference Promote professional asset management and
allow international diversification Improve administrative efficiency: actuarial
forecasting, record-keeping, collection, etc. Encourage greater private provision of pensions Strengthen regulation and supervision
Challenges for capital market development in Africa
Limited size and high levels of concentration in terms of both participants and trading
Limited activity levels and lack of critical mass to support market services
Lack of market facilities, infrastructure and services (including know-how)
Challenges for capital market development
Scarcity of investment capital (may be exacerbated by migration of capital and issuers to regional and global markets)
Inadequate legal and regulatory environment to support credible markets (including enforcement and judiciary)
Successful Capital Markets Economic viability: the market covers its costs and
ideally earns a return on the owners’ investment Organized central market: provides trading,
settlement and market information systems required to support a transparent market, effective price discovery and access to issuers and investors in accordance with a clear set of rules and standards.
Appropriate levels of investor protection and market integrity.
Meets the needs of local investors, issuers and intermediaries at a reasonable cost.
Successful Capital Markets
Small nascent markets do not require sophisticated trading, information, clearing and regulatory systems comparable to those required in large developed markets.
Need to tailor features to current levels of activity and the needs of local market participants
Alternatives to stand-alone national stock exchange
OTC market
Purchase facilities
Outsource operations
Regional exchange or Alliance of markets
Subsidiary (or merger) of larger market
Lessons from successful small markets Start out small
Have realistic expectations
Grow market services and regulation organically in tandem with the market
Use new technology only if direct and indirect costs are low
Don’t over-regulate (it’s costly)
Lessons from successful small markets
Don’t rely on equity markets to cover fixed costs. Many successful markets in the early years relied heavily on revenues from fixed- income products.
Cost/Benefit Analysis