ft invest in georgia forum: financial investors in georgia and the 2011 us$ eurobond issue
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FT Invest in Georgia Forum: Financial Investors in Georgia and the 2011 US$ Eurobond Issue. Alex von Sponeck. Singapore, 04-Oct-2011. Emerging Market Debt Issuance Volume Overview – 2010 vs. 2011. Issuance volumes have increased by 4% compared to same period last year. Source: Dealogic - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
19/04/23 21:26
FT Invest in Georgia Forum: Financial Investors in Georgia and the 2011 US$ Eurobond IssueAlex von Sponeck
Singapore, 04-Oct-2011
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Emerging Market Debt Issuance Volume Overview – 2010 vs. 2011
Issuance volumes have increased by 4% compared to same period last year
Source: DealogicNote: The increase in issuance volume is for period from Jan to Aug.
Emerging Market Debt Issuance Volume by Region
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Geographic breakdowns have largely remained the same in 2010 vs 2011YTDGeographic breakdowns have largely remained the same in 2010 vs 2011YTD
2010 2011YTD
3-4Y14%
5Y29%
6-9Y12%
Orange12.5%
Aqua12.5%
Gold12.5%
Lavender12.5%
5Y27%
6-9Y16%
Source: DealogicIncludes USD, CHF, GBP, EUR and JPY issuances greater than or equal to USD100m equivalent size.2011 YTD value as of 19-Sep -11.
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Latin America
29%
Rusia, CIS and Other CEE
28%
Middle East11%
North Asia17%
SE Asia12%
Africa3%
Latin America
27%
Russia, CIS and Other CEE
27%
Middle East7%
North Asia20%
SE Asia15%
Africa4%
Total: US$203.6bnTotal: US$308.8bn
Emerging Market Debt Issuer Type Breakdown
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Corporates still remain the largest issuers in the Emerging Market spaceCorporates still remain the largest issuers in the Emerging Market space
2010 2011YTD
Source: DealogicIncludes Emerging Market major and local currency Eurobond issuances greater than or equal to USD100m equivalent size.2011 YTD value as of 19-Sep -11.
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Total: US$203.6bnTotal: US$308.8bn
Corporate41%
FIG 31%
Sovereign 28%
Corporate46%
FIG 28%
Sovereign 26%
Transaction Highlights of the 2011 US$500m Georgia Sovereign Eurobond
Successful pricing of a new 10-year $500m Reg S / 144A benchmark transaction at 7.125% and in parallel redemption of $417m of its existing $500m 7.50% bond due 2013 through an “any and all” cash tender
The tender participation ratio of 83% was very high and the majority of existing investors took advantage of the opportunity to swap their exposures into the new 10-year benchmark offering
The issuance saw heavy demand and garnered a demand of over $2.66bn (5.3x oversubscription) from 149 accounts
The new 10-year offering priced 148bps inside of its existing bond due 2013, which traded at 494bps over swaps prior to the announcement of the tender
— The transaction’s 357bps spread over the 10-year UST provided a 117bps improvement over Georgia’s shorter-dated $500 million 5-year offering issued in 2008, or a 37.5bps decrease in yield
— The achieved pricing level was also materially inside of other similarly rated sovereign issuance from the region
The timing of the transaction benefited from very limited competing sovereign supply and strong market technicals
— The offering took advantage of the current historically low UST yields
— S&P’s and Fitch’s decisions to upgrade Georgia's credit rating outlooks to ‘positive’ from ‘negative’ in March helped highlight the country’s positive credit momentum ahead of the deal announcement
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Key Terms of the Issuance
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Key Terms Value
Issuer Georgia
Ratings Ba3 (stable) / B+ (positive) / B+ (positive)
Issue Format 144A / Reg S
Issue Size US$500m
Pricing Date 07-Apr-2011
Maturity Date 12-Apr-2021
Coupon 6.875%
Price 98.233%
Yield 7.125%
Spread to Mid Swaps 346.4bps
Joint Lead Managers Goldman Sachs, J.P.Morgan
Listing London Stock Exchange
Investor Feedback Gathered During Roadshow
Summary of Investor Views from the Roadshow:
— Strong demand for 10 year bonds in the market
— Price guidance of close to 8% with majority of investors willing to continue with their orders if the pricing came in tighter
— Strong recognition of Georgia credit story
– Majority of investors even if they hadn’t made investment in Georgia in the past were closely following it
– Awareness of the reforms made in the banking system and view of the banking sector being sound
– Praise for the sound and good policy making
– Appreciation of the Government for effective execution of the policies, including anti-corruption drive
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“….they should target 8% in terms of price guidance which should make them able to build a robust book and probably tighten the price to 7.75% which in my opinion should be a fair level given its rating peers and economic fundamentals…..”
“……the 7.75% is where I think it should be priced (not a limit)......my order is still good at 7.5% or lower……”
“…they should be about 100bp over Ukraine…..”
“….interested in being anchor investor, but would require more details…..”
“…..we have met the ministry before and like the credit a lot and would definitely place an order…..”
Secondary Trading Bond Levels from April 2011 – 2011 YTD
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Source: Bloomberg, GS Internal
Key Investor Areas of Focus on Georgia
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GDPModerate Levels of Government Debt provide
Georgia with Financial Flexibility
Resilient Banking Sector Regional Energy Hub Georgia’s banking sector represents only a moderate contingent liability of the
sovereign (Ratio of assets to Nominal GDP is 50.8% as of end - Dec-2010) Well capitalised with average Basel I capital adequacy ratio of 24% (18% local
standards)
Net E
xpo
rts
Gas supply contracts with Azerbaijan for 10 years and with Shah-Deniz for 20 years
Net Electricity Exporter
Source: IMF, NBG, MOF1. IMF forecast