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Copyright of Shell International Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles Future Powertrains Conference Feb 28 th -Mar 1st 1 Roger Cracknell Shell Global Solutions (UK)

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Page 1: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

Copyright of Shell International

Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) VehiclesFuture Powertrains Conference Feb 28th -Mar 1st

1

Roger Cracknell Shell Global Solutions (UK)

Page 2: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

DEFINITIONS & CAUTIONARY NOTE

2

The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are

sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to

subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’,

“Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated

arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither

control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture,

partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of

historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations

and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these

statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s

expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’,

‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms

and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-

looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency

fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the

identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and

countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market

conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in

the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed

previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this

section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s Form 20-F for the year

ended December 31, 2017 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this presentation and

should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation 1st Mar 2018 . Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries

undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ

materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.

We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the

SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by

calling 1-800-SEC-0330.

Page 3: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

ICE DOWNSIZING AND ELECTRIFICATION

Downsized boosted engines have significant potential for efficiency improvement.

Reduced throttling losses

Operation at higher average loads - lower friction

Higher torque at lower engine speed – downspeeding

Charge cooling benefits from DI

Hybridisation (especially series hybrids) limits the speed load range so that the engine is more likely to operate in its most efficient region.

Presentation will focus on fuel requirements for advanced SI Engines

Page 4: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

OCTANE

4

Page 5: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

FUEL OCTANE AND ENGINE KNOCK (1)

5

Page 6: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

FUEL OCTANE AND ENGINE KNOCK (2)

6

• Lower octane fuel makes

the engine more prone to

knock.

• For higher RON fuels the

spark timing achieved is

closer to optimum (MBT)

with the highest torque.

• KLSA is the most advanced

spark timing achievable

without knock

Remmert, S., Cracknell, R., Head, R., Schuetze, A. et al., "Octane Response in a Downsized, Highly Boosted Direct Injection Spark Ignition

Engine," SAE 2014-01-1397.

Spark Timing [CAD bTDC]Spark Timing [CAD bTDC]

Page 7: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

7

OCTANE AND REAL WORLD DRIVING (1)

Measuring spark retard in vehicles typical of the European MarketYow, S., Nattrass, S., and Jones, W., "The Application of Telematics to Demonstrate Octane Quality Effects in Real World Driving," SAE Technical Paper

2015-01-1953, 2015, doi:10.4271/2015-01-1953

Page 8: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

OCTANE AND REAL WORLD DRIVING (2)

8

0 1 2 3 4 50 1 2 3 4 5

95 RON 98 RON

CAD CAD

Yow, S., Nattrass, S., and Jones, W., "The Application of Telematics to Demonstrate Octane Quality Effects in Real World Driving," SAE Technical Paper

2015-01-1953, 2015, doi:10.4271/2015-01-1953

Page 9: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

VEHICLE FLEET TRENDS – IGNITION TIMING AND POWER

9

• Test fleet of 20 vehicles

(representative of European

markets in terms of coverage

and vehicle technology)

• 50% of vehicles showed a

power benefit (RON97 vs

RON95)

• 95% of vehicles showed a

power benefit (RON99 vs

RON95)

Redmann, J., Beutler, M., Kensler, J., Luebbers, M. et al., "Octane Requirement and Efficiency in a Fleet of Modern Vehicles," 2017-01-0810

Page 10: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

MAXIMUM EFFICIENCY INCREASES WITH CR, BUT HIGH LOAD/ LOW SPEED OPERATION RESTRICTED BY KNOCK

10

Prakash, A., Wang, C., Janssen, A., Aradi, A. et al., "Impact of Fuel Sensitivity (RON-MON) on Engine Efficiency," SAE 2017-01-0799

• Boosted single

cylinder engine

(up to 3 bar boost

pressure)

• Fuel:

RON =92, S=10

Higher efficiency

Restricted by knock

Page 11: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

DOWNSIZED BOOSTED ENGINES OPERATE “BEYOND RON”

Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7

Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K) x RON

OI = RON – K x S

(Kalghatgi)

Page 12: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

• Method: extrapolate RON and MON via octane index: OI = K x MON + (1-K) x RONOI = RON – K x S

• The higher the OI, the more auto-ignition resistant the fuel (Sensitivity S=RON-MON)

• K-value: engine and condition dependent scaling factor influenced by T, P history of in-cylinder end-gas

• Implications: • For K = 0; OI = RON• For K = 1; OI = MON.• For K < 0; low MON fuels preferred (high sensitivity).

BEYOND THE CFR RON & MON: K-VALUE THEORY

The K-Value theory (Kalghatgi) can extrapolate RON & MON to apply to modern technology

Kalghatgi, G., "Auto-Ignition Quality of Practical Fuels and Implications for Fuel Requirements of Future SI and HCCI Engines," SAE Technical

Paper 2005-01-0239, 2005, doi:10.4271/2005-01-0239.

Page 13: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

13Date Month 2016Footer

Prakash, A., Wang, C., Janssen, A., Aradi, A. et al.: Impact of Fuel Sensitivity (RON-MON) on Engine Efficiency, (2017), SAE Technical Paper 2017-01-0799

SINGLE CYLINDER ENGINE RESULTS (1)

Severely knock limited

Page 14: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

14

Prakash, A., Wang, C., Janssen, A., Aradi, A. et al.: Impact of Fuel Sensitivity (RON-MON) on Engine Efficiency, (2017), SAE Technical Paper 2017-01-0799

SINGLE CYLINDER ENGINE RESULTS (1)

Severely knock limited

Less knock limited

Less knock limited

Page 15: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

CLEANLINESS

15

Page 16: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

INJECTOR FOULING: SPRAY CHARACTERISTICS AND PARTICULATE EMISSIONS(University of Birmingham Collaboration )

16

Clean Fouled

Fouled injectors give:• more distinct spray core

• larger droplets,

• more particulates

Higher injection

pressure reduces PN

C Jiang et al; Applied Energy 203, 2017, 390-402

Page 17: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

PM

in m

g/m

³ (log.)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

runtime in h

00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00

PM

in m

g/m

³ (log.)

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

runtime in h

00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00

PN

in 1

/cm

³ (

log.)

103

104

105

106

107

runtime in h

00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00

PN

in 1

/cm

³ (

log.)

103

104

105

106

107

runtime in h

00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00

block A (fuel A/C) block B (fuel B/C) block C (fuel C/C) block D (fuel D/C)

INJECTOR FOULING: SPRAY CHARACTERISTICS AND PARTICULATE EMISSIONS(IAV/ Imperial College Collaboration)

Henkel, S., Hardalupas, Y., Taylor, A., Conifer, C. et al., "Injector Fouling and Its Impact on Engine Emissions and Spray Characteristics in GasolineDirect Injection Engines," SAE 2017-01-0808.

DCA-containing fuels:Fuel B / Fuel C

DCA-free fuels:

Fuels A / Fuel D

• Deposit control additive can mitigate injector fouling and PN drift

Page 18: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

IVD BUILD-UP LEADS TO “SLUGGISH COMBUSTION”

18

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

De

lta

of

Spar

k P

oin

t an

d C

A5

0 in

C

ran

k A

ngl

e D

egr

ee

s

Duration of Experiment in Hours

Flush to Clean-Up

• Uses Mercedes-Benz M111:

CEC F-20-98

• Longer spark CA50

observed during IVD build-up.

• Consistent with changes

observed in NOx and Exhaust

Gas Temperature.

• Changes in Air Flow due to

IVDs measured.

Glawar, A., Volkmer, F., Ziman, P., Groves, A. et al., "Engine Cleanliness in an Industry Standard Mercedes-Benz M111 Bench Engine: Effects of Inlet Valve Deposits on Combustion," SAE 2017-01-2239

Page 19: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

IVDS CAN ACT AS A SPONGE TO SOAK UP FUEL(University of Edinburgh Collaboration)

19

Power loss Slow acceleration Poor drivability Poor cold start Increased

emissions

Valve deposits act as sponge

3000 x magnification

Harrison, A., Cracknell, R., Krueger-Venus, J., and Sarkisov, L., "Computer Simulation Studies of Adsorption of Binary and Ternary Mixtures of Gasoline Components in Engine Deposits," SAE 2014-01-2719

Page 20: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

SUMMARY - OCTANE

20

• The efficiency of today’s SI vehicles can be adversely impacted by knock in real

world driving.

• Downsizing, boosting, increasing CR and hybridisation all provide possible routes

to increasing SI engine efficiency

• Increased CR leads to higher efficiency in some parts of the speed/load map but

needs higher octane quality at low speed/high load

• Increased sensitivity (RON-MON) as well as increased RON can be beneficial in

increasing efficiency

Page 21: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

SUMMARY - CLEANLINESS

21

• Injector deposits in DISI engines can impair the quality of the spray, leading to higher

emissions and impaired combustion.

• Intake valve deposits in industry standard M111 engine shown to give “sluggish

combustion” which can be linked to changes in air flow.

• Intake valve deposits have a well developed pore structure which can soak up fuel (in

PFI engines).

• Deposit control additives can be shown to mitigate the adverse impact of fouling.

Page 22: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)

Acknowledgements

22

• Andreas Glawar

• Sandro Gail

• Vinod Natarajan

• Arjun Prakash

• Allen Aradi

• Chris Conifer

• Shuhui Yow

• Jens Krueger-Venus

• Chongming Wang

Page 23: Fuel Challenges for Modern (SI) Vehicles...Cracknell et al MTZ worldwide June 2015, Volume 76, Issue 7-8, pp 4-7 Extrapolate RON and MON via octane index (OI): OI = K x MON + (1-K)