fueling cars in china - carbon mitigation initiative
TRANSCRIPT
Fueling Cars in ChinaPart I: Rationale and Strategy for Comprehensive Use of Coal
R. Williams, E. LarsonPrinceton University
Li Zheng, Ni WeidouTsinghua University
Annual Meeting of the Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Princeton Environmental Institute
Princeton University
20 January 2004
Economic goal and general strategy for China
⢠In October 2002, the 16th Party Congress established the goal of building âxiao kangsocietyâ by expanding GDP four-fold by 2020 in a sustainable way
⢠To achieve this goal, energy development is critical and of great concern and priority ⢠Chinaâs energy-related problems:
â Energy security, mainly oil supply security. China will become heavily dependent on oil imports as a result of the rapidly growing transportation demand
â Environmental pollution, which has large economic consequences (damage cost projected to grow from over 7% of GDP to 13% of GDP in 2020 with BAU)
â CO2 emissions, which are second to U.S. at present and gaining, will be subject to ever-increasing international pressures and could cause extra cost for later control
⢠A comprehensive strategy is needed for energy development. The proposed strategy can be summarized as: to ensure energy supply, to prioritize energy conservation, to optimize energy mix and to protect environment.
â Major priorities for energy saving: transportation and buildings
Chinaâs projected oil demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2010 2020
Mill
ion
Tons
Imported
Domestic
Projection from: Energy Research Instituteâs âSustainable Energy Development and Carbon Emission Scenario 3â (high efficiency but without coal gasification), 2003
⢠2003: oil imports = 90 million tons crude + ?? oil products⢠2020: imports could be higher than projectedâup to 410 million tons⢠Increased oil demand mainly due to increase of automobiles
Chinese vehicle population growing explosively
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1993 1996 1999 20020
4
8
12
Total Vehicle Private Vehicle Annual Growth
Rate 11.6%
Annual Growth Rate 23.0%
million
Vehicle Ownership
0
1
2
3
4
1990 1993 1996 1999 20020
0.5
1
1.5
TotalCars Annual Growth
Rate 16.7%
Annual Growth Rate 31.8%
million
Domestic Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ions
AllVehicles
Cars
GDP growth, %/year:
8
6
8
10
10
6
Source: US National Academy of Sciences and China Academy of Sciences, Personal Cars and China, National Academy Press, 2003.
Projections to 2020
Energy saving measures for transportation vehicles
⢠Within the next few yearsâ Phased (2005 and 2008) minimum fuel economy
standards â Electronic fuel injection and other engine
improvementsâ Lighter-weight bodies
⢠Longer-termâ Dieselization of the vehicle fleetâ Hybrid vehiclesâ Fuel cell vehicles
Vehicle emission standards in China will progressively tighten
Standard Year adopted in Europe
Year adopted in China
Euro I 1993 2000
Euro II 1997 2004
Euro III 2001 2005(Beijing/Shanghai)
Perspective on rapid increase of vehicles ⢠Primary driving force: peopleâs expectation for better life,
irreversibleâŚbut how many vehicles can China afford?⢠Strong government promotion:
â Car industry is expected to be a key industry supporting overalleconomic growth
â Citizens are encouraged and enticed to buy cars
⢠Contradiction: ever increasing demand for oil and resulting energy security and air pollution concerns
⢠Comment: no clear policy to limit car ownership to stable levels; oil suppliers are in the passive position that they are expected to meet whatever oil demand materializes. However, it is obvious that car ownership in China at per capita levels of the West is impossible in terms of oil demand and resource sustainability.
Oil Strategy proposed by Chinaâs oil industry
⢠Limit oil demand in 2020 to ~ 420 million tonsâ Increase/stabilize domestic oil production â 200 mt/y â Buy rights to explore for oil in foreign countries ~ 80 mt/yâ Imports ~ 100 mt/y
⢠Save as much oil as possible through efficiency improvement and substitution
⢠Develop domestic alternatives, especially via coal liquefaction, since coal is Chinaâs only reliable resource for large scale liquid fuels production
Coal utilization strategy proposed by Chinaâs Medium & Long-Term Science and Technology
Planning Groups⢠Coal should be regarded as the most reliable strategic energy resource
and be used in a comprehensive way.⢠Coal will continue to be used mainly for power generation, but it
should also be increasingly used for liquid fuel production to supplement oil.
⢠Polygeneration based on coal gasification is a comprehensive strategy to integrate near and long term objectives:
â Use coal efficiently, economically and cleanly by integrating fuels, power and chemicals production
â Help ease oil import dependency/security problemsâ Prepare platform for future provision of hydrogen at large scales and for
CO2 capture and storage
Vision of coal utilization in China
Fueling cars with coal derived fuels
⢠Making liquid fuels from coal is widely accepted strategy for helping ease Chinaâs oil shortageâ Polygeneration is regarded as a key technology in Long
Term S & T Planningâ CCICED energy group has played a major role in
promoting this trendâ Coal-derived synthetic fuel could be methanol, DME,
F-T distillate, etc.⢠Direct liquefaction has moved to back burner.
Evolutionary Strategy for Coal-Derived Liquid Fuels in China
⢠MeOH strategyâ Six 600,000 t/y projects planned â Initial markets: Chemicals; regional transport markets; DME feedstockâ Long-term markets: gasohol/neat fuel for national markets???
⢠DME strategyâ Use MeOH dehydration to provide DME for cooking (LPG supplementâwhere
NG unavailable)â Bring to maturity one-step DME (liquid-phase reactors) and polygeneration to
reduce costâ R&D and field testing of DME for engines in transportationâ Long-term markets: transportation???, stationary power, in addition to cooking
Evolutionary Strategy for Coal-Derived Liquid Fuels in China
⢠F-T Liquids strategyâ One 2.5 million t/y project planned (imported technology)â Main market: transportation (Diesel substitute, via blends with petroleum-
derived Diesel)â F-T Diesel and DME may compete for CI engine markets in long term
⢠Polygeneration strategy â Phase I: to do demo as soon as possible
⢠Demos of integrated systems based on mature technologies (imported gasifiers + Chinese gas-phase reactors and/or imported liquid phase reactors + imported GT + Chinese ST)
⢠R&D on key components: gasifiers, liquid-phase reactors, GTâ Phase II: Technology cost buy-down via widespread deployment,
localization of manufacture, marginal technological improvements via learning/continuing R&D
â Goal for 2020: 10-20 million t/y reduction in petroleum imports
Tsinghua-Princeton energy research activities
⢠ASPEN-based design/costing of polygenerationâ Design/simulation of co-producing methanol/electricity and
DME/electricity; comparisons with stand-alone fuels production.â Cost estimation: (methodology + cost data base developed by CMI
Capture Group for H2/electricity systems) + (cost estimates for synthesis and product separation developed with industry consultant)
⢠Task Force on Energy Strategies and Technologies (TFEST), China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED)â Ni Weidou, Bob Williams Li Zheng, Eric Larsonâ Beijing workshop (August 2003) 130 high-level participantsâ Final report to CCICED attracted great attentionâ A special journal publication reporting on TFEST work
Chinaâs Medium And Long Term Science And Technology Planning Groups
⢠20 groups in total dealing with Chinaâs S & T planning to 2020
⢠Tsinghua participating in more than 10 groups including:â General S & T strategy groupâled by Minister of
MOST; Prof. Ni Weidou is deputy leaderâ Group for energy, resources and oceanâled by Prof.
Wang Dazhong, former President of Tsinghua⢠Prof. Wu Zongxin: nuclear energy⢠Prof. Li Zheng: coal and power generation
Tsinghua energy research activities⢠Establishment of Tsinghua BP Clean Energy & Education Center
â Site of many important energy meetings in Chinaâ Site of major national and international research projects
UK Prime Minister Tony Blair at official opening (July 2003)
Fueling Cars in ChinaPart II: Findings from Tsinghua/Princeton Modeling
of Indirect Coal Liquefaction
Research carried out in 2003 by: Ren Tingjin (Tsinghua)
Eric Larson/Robert Williams (Princeton)
LIQUID FUELS FROM COAL
⢠Gasify coal in O2/H2O to produce âsyngasâ (mostly CO, H2)
⢠Increase H/C ratio via WGS to maximize conversion in synthesis reactor (CO + H2O H2 + CO2)
⢠Remove acid gases (H2S and CO2), other impurities from syngas
⢠Convert syngas to synthetic fuel in âsynthesisâ reactor (analysis based on use of liquid-phase reactors)
⢠Can strive to make fuels superior to crude oil-derived HC fuels: (i) set goals for performance, air-pollutant emissions, cost; (ii) seek chemical producible from CO, H2 that comes closest to meeting goals; (iii) develop that chemical (âdesigner fuelâ strategy)
Challenge: increase H/C ratio (H/C ~ 2 for HC fuels; ~ 0.8 for coal)
GASIFICATION IS BOOMING GLOBAL ACTIVITY
⢠In 2004⢠By activity: ⢠24 GWth chemicals ⢠23 GWth power ⢠14 GWth synfuels⢠By region: ⢠9 GWth China⢠10 GWth N America⢠19 GWth W Europe⢠23 GWth Rest of worldBy feedstock:⢠27 GWth petroleum
residuals⢠27 GWth coal⢠6 GWth natural gas
⢠1 GWth biomassWorldwide gasification capacity is increasing by3 GWth per year and will reach 61 GWth in 2004
Liquid-Phase (LP) Synthesis Technology
Synthesis gas(CO + H2)
Cooling water
SteamCatalystpowderslurriedin oil
Disengagementzone
TYPICAL REACTION CONDITIONS:P = 50-100 atmospheresT = 200-300oC
Fuel product (vapor)+ unreacted syngas
catalystCO
H2
CH3OCH3CH3OHCnH2n+2(depending on catalyst)
Liquid-phase reactors have much higher one-pass conversion of CO+H2 to liquids than traditional gas-phase reactors, e.g., liquid-phase Fischer-Tropsch synthesis has ~80% one-pass conversion, compared to <40% for traditional technology.
Well-suited for use with CO-rich (coal-derived) syngas
ONCE-THROUGH (OT) vs RECYLE (RC ) OPTIONS
⢠OT option (top): syngas passes once through synthesis reactor; unconverted syngasburned electricity coproduct in combined cycle
⢠RC option (bottom): unconverted syngas recycled to maximize synfuel production; purge gases burned electricity for process; no electricity export
⢠Acid gas (H2S + CO2) removal: â H2S level in syngas must be reduced to ppbv levels to protect synthesis catalysts â ~ 95% of CO2 should be removed to maximize syngas conversion to synfuel
Gasification Synthesis
coal
Power IslandExportElectricity
LiquidFuel
Water Gas Shift
ASU airoxygen
SeparationCoalPreparation
Gas Cooling& Cleanup
unconvertedsynthesis gas
water processelectricity
H2S, CO2Removal
Gasification Synthesis
coal
Power Island
LiquidFuel
Water Gas Shift
ASU airoxygen
SeparationCoalPreparation
Gas Cooling& Cleanup
unconvertedsynthesis gas
water processelectricity
purgegas
H2S, CO2Removal
Gasification Synthesis
coal
Power IslandExportElectricity
LiquidFuel
Water Gas Shift
ASU airoxygen
SeparationCoalPreparation
Gas Cooling& Cleanup
unconvertedsynthesis gas
water processelectricity
H2S, CO2RemovalGasification Synthesis
coal
Power IslandExportElectricity
LiquidFuel
Water Gas Shift
ASU airoxygen
SeparationCoalPreparation
Gas Cooling& Cleanup
unconvertedsynthesis gas
water processelectricity
H2S, CO2Removal
Gasification Synthesis
coal
Power Island
LiquidFuel
Water Gas Shift
ASU airoxygen
SeparationCoalPreparation
Gas Cooling& Cleanup
unconvertedsynthesis gas
water processelectricity
purgegas
H2S, CO2RemovalGasification Synthesis
coal
Power Island
LiquidFuel
Water Gas Shift
ASU airoxygen
SeparationCoalPreparation
Gas Cooling& Cleanup
unconvertedsynthesis gas
water processelectricity
purgegas
H2S, CO2Removal
DME (CH3OCH3)âcandidate designer fuel for long-term⢠Current markets (1.5 x 105 t/y): chemical feedstock; aerosol propellant ⢠Potential energy applications:
â Cooking [where natural gas not available (properties like propane, LPG)]â CI engine vehicles (high cetane # no cold start problem, no S, no C-C bonds
negligible soot, low NOx emissions)â Stationary power generation [gas turbines, CI engine/generator sets, low
temperature fuel cells (easier to reform than MeOH) in long term]⢠Disadvantages: mild pressurization needed for storage; more engine
development/new infrastructure needed for transportation PROPERTIES DME Propane Diesel Fuel
Boiling point, oC -24.9 -42.1 180 â 370
<< 1
~ 840
Liquid lower heat value, MJ/kg 28.4 46.0 42.5Flammability limits in air, vol% 3.4 â 17 2.1 â 9.4 0.6 â 6.5 Auto-ignition temperature (oC) 235 470 250
Cetane number ~ 60 5 40 â 55
Vapor pressure, atm. 5.1 8.4
Liquid density, kg/m3 668 501
Single-Step DME synthesis
shift)gas(water
on)(dehydrati
(MeOH synthesis)
222 COHCOOH +â+23332 OHOCHCHOHCH +â
32 OHCH2HCO â+ - 91 kJ/mol
- 24 kJ/mol
- 41 kJ/mol
⢠One original motivation for DME: higher conversion feasible than with MeOH (MeOH formation is equilibrium limited but dehydration removes MeOH as it forms, enabling equilibrium limit to be surpassed).
⢠Two catalysts suspended in oil of synthesis reactor⢠CuO/ZnO/Al2O3 for MeOH synthesis, WG⢠γ-alumina for MeOH dehydration
ENERGY/CARBON BALANCES FOR DME/ELECTRICITY CO-PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
Energy
losses52% DME out
25%
Electricityout
23%
ENERGY
DME out18%
Electricity out
82%
CARBONOT-V, DME
OT-CC/CS, DME
DME out25%
Energy losses53%
Electricityout
22%
ENERGY
Electricity out
53%
DME out18%
Captured/stored30%
CARBON
â˘H2S/CO2 co-capture/co-storage (CC/CS) often less costly than separate CO2 and H2S removal + conversion, H2S S.â˘Fuel cycle GHG emission rate for OT-CC/CS case:Electricity: same as for 40%-efficient coal power plant venting CO2DME: 0.79 X rate for Diesel from crude oil (if no efficiency gain)
0.67 X rate for gasoline from crude (if SI CI engine in car)
PROSPECTIVE COSTS FOR DME (OT-CC/CS CONFIGURATION)
DME output 600 MWElectricity output 526 MWe
CO2 storage rate 1.8 million t/yCountry United States ChinaCoal price ($/GJ) 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.5
Electricity price = IGCC cost (¢/kWh) 4.3 3.9 3.1 2.7
BCOP w/o efficiency benefit ($/barrel)[if DME substitutes for Diesel]
37 32 31 25
BCOP w/efficiency benefit ($/barrel)[if DME CI engine car substitutes for gasoline SI engine car]
24 19 20 15
BCOP ⥠breakeven crude oil price
Fuel/Electricity Co-Production with Decarbonization of Syngas Exiting Synthesis Reactor (OT-Full CO2 C/S)
Gasification Synthesis
Coal
ExportElectricity
Liquid Fuel
WaterGas Shift
ASU air
oxygen
SeparationCoalPreparation
Gas Cooling& Cleanup
unconvertedsynthesis gas
water
H2S, CO2Removal
CO2Removal
WaterGas Shift
Power Island
Underground Storage
Gasification Synthesis
Coal
ExportElectricity
Liquid Fuel
WaterGas Shift
ASU air
oxygen
SeparationCoalPreparation
Gas Cooling& Cleanup
unconvertedsynthesis gas
water
H2S, CO2Removal
CO2Removal
WaterGas Shift
Power Island
Underground Storage
Energy losses57%
Electricityout
18%
DME out25%
ENERGY
DME out18%
Electric ity out7%
Captured/stored75%
CARBON
Energy losses57%
Electricityout
18%
DME out25%
ENERGY
Energy losses57%
Electricityout
18%
DME out25%
ENERGY
DME out18%
Electric ity out7%
Captured/stored75%
CARBON
DME out18%
Electric ity out7%
Captured/stored75%
CARBON
Fuel cycle GHG emission rate:Electricity: 0.19 X rate for 40%-efficient coal plant venting CO2DME: 0.79 X rate for Diesel from crude oil (if no efficiency gain)
0.67 X rate for gasoline from crude (if SI CI engine in car)
Decarbonized Coal Energy Coproduction in Long Term
Gasification Synthesis
Coal
Power Island
ExportElectricity
Liquid Fuel
WaterGas Shift
ASU air
oxygen
SeparationCoalPreparation
Gas Cooling& Cleanup
unconvertedsynthesis gas
water
Export minorelectricityco-product
H2S, CO2Removal
CO2Removal
WaterGas Shift
Power Island
Separation Hydrogen
Underground Storage
purgegas
Gasification Synthesis
Coal
Power Island
ExportElectricity
Liquid Fuel
WaterGas Shift
ASU air
oxygen
SeparationCoalPreparation
Gas Cooling& Cleanup
unconvertedsynthesis gas
water
Export minorelectricityco-product
H2S, CO2Removal
CO2Removal
WaterGas Shift
Power Island
Separation Hydrogen
Underground Storage
purgegas
By the time H2 is launched in market as energy carrier:⢠Decarbonized syngas downstream of liquid fuel synthesis reactor
can be used to produce mix of electricity + H2⢠H2/electricity output ratio determined mainly by relative
H2/electricity market demands because system efficiencies/costsinvariant over wide range of H2/electricity output ratios
MULTIPLE BENEFITS OF POLYGENERATION
⢠Economic benefitsâ Economies of scaleâ Capital cost savings by avoiding investments in recycle equipmentâ Operational flexibility
⢠Oil supply insecurity mitigation role for coal
⢠Ultra-low air pollutant emissionsâ Emissions for electricity < for IGCCâ âDesignerâ fuels (e.g., DME) producible via gasification can be cleaner
than petroleum-derived fuels
⢠Early (pre-climate-mitigation policy) experience with CO2 storage pursuing CC/CS as acid gas management strategyâŚbut this finding contingent on viability of H2S/CO2 co-storage
⢠Evolutionary coal processing framework for transition to coal-derived H2