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Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy July 15, 2020

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Page 1: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral EconomyJuly 15, 2020

Page 2: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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HARD-TO-ELECTRIFY SECTORS

• Aviation• Long-haul trucking / shipping• Rural• Industrial

Page 3: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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Page 4: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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LIGHT-DUTY CHALLENGES

Source: Richard Corey, CARB

Page 5: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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POTENTIAL SOLUTION: AVIATION

• Sustainable Aviation Fuelq Fully fungible fuel made from renewable feedstocks

• Headwinds:q LCFS provides important but limited value to SAFq Hard to capture the premium value & justify the long-term

investment.q Global book-and-claim unavailable

Page 6: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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SOLUTIONS: LONG-HAUL / SHIPPING• Renewable Diesel

q Offered by several companies already; interest from oil majors• Direct Air Capture to Fuel

q What will be the demand for pure underground sequestration, and how will that be paid?

q What are the policies driving DAC?• Ammonia & Hydrogen

q Especially suitable for marine & rail

• Headwinds:q Infrastructureq Up-front expense

Page 7: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL

• Low-carbon compatible vehiclesq For any combustion engine sold in CA, require that the

engine be low-carbon fuel compatible • E.g., FFVs + PHEV

• Would offer decarbonization benefits before fleet fully turns over

• Headwind:q Infrastructure

Page 8: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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POTENTIAL SOLUTION: INDUSTRIALRefineries may continue to operate in California past 2050, just focused on exports.• Renewable natural gas to green hydrogen• Solar steam• CCS for process heating, paired with upstream methane

abatement• Ammonia

• Headwinds:q No LCFS value for exportsq NGO advocacy against RNG

Page 9: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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CASE STUDY: WORLD ENERGY

• Paramount, CA facilityq Producing sustainable aviation fuel,

renewable diesel, naphthaq Scaling facility to meet 10% of

California’s diesel demandq Approved CIs range from 43 to

recently approved score of 24q Potential for carbon neutrality through

pathway development

Page 10: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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CASE STUDY: CARBON ENGINEERING• Direct Air Capture

q TX partnership with Occidental Petroleum

q Commercial-scale demonstration

q Infinitely scalable; range of uses • Research into supersonic jet fuel

with Aerion

Page 11: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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INVESTMENT BARRIERS• Scale of future market• Market access• Feedstock diversification• Price uncertainty = investor

uncertainty• Government and regulatory policy

Page 12: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS

Page 13: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS

Page 14: Fuels & Infrastructure for a Carbon-Neutral Economy...AJW-INC.COM 7 POTENTIAL SOLUTION: RURAL •Low-carbon compatible vehicles qFor any combustion engine sold in CA, require that

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THANK YOU.www.AJW-Inc.com

@ajwinc

LinkedIn.com/company/ajwinc

Washington, D.C.2200 Wilson BoulevardSuite 310Arlington, VA 22201

(P) 202-296-8086(F) 877-303-4532

Sacramento, CA1121 L Street Suite 309Sacramento, CA 95814

Mary [email protected]