Ted Miller

Manager – Energy Storage and Materials Research

Ford Motor Company

Full Electric Vehicles:

Just How Big is the Niche?

NAATBatt Annual Meeting & Conference

Indian Wells, CA

March 3, 2016

Ford Electrified Vehicles: The Power of Choice

HEV PHEVBEVFusion Hybrid C-Max Hybrid

Fusion EnergiC-Max Energi

Focus Electric

1

• There is no single electrification solution that satisfies all customer requirements

• The right solution depends on individual usage profiles and needs

• First Ford Production EV: 1999 Ford Electric Ranger

− Low Volume (~1,500)

− Most leased for fleet use (few private leases)

− All leases were terminated by 2004, vehicles returned

• Generation I: Hybrid Technology Introductions

− October 2004: Ford Escape Hybrid

− October 2005: Mercury Mariner Hybrid

• Generation II: Hybrid Technology Introductions

− March 2009: 2Ford Fusion Hybrid

− March 2009: 2Mercury Milan Hybrid

− September 2012: Lincoln MKZ Hybrid

− Note: 2009 MY Escape Hybrid updated to 2.5L Atkinson,

but c/o trans- GEN 1.5

Ford’s Recent Electrified Vehicle History

1998 Ford Electric Ranger 2004 Ford Escape Hybrid 2009 Fusion Hybrid 2013 C-Max Hybrid

• Generation III: Hybrid Technology Introductions

− 2013 C-Max Hybrid

− 2013 Fusion Hybrid

− 2013 C-Max Energi

− 2013 Fusion Energi

• Battery EV: 2013 Ford Focus Electric

• Start-Stop: 2013 Fusion 1.6L Ecoboost (first application in

NA) and various applications in Europe (gas, diesel, manual

and automatic transmissions)

2

US Sales Status (CYTD sales as of August 2015)

3

0 10,000 20,000 30,000

Honda Insight

Nissan Pathfinder

Lexus NX

Honda CR-Z

Infiniti QX60

Infiniti Q50

Toyota Highlander

Buick LaCrosse

Honda Civic

Lexus RX

Subaru XV Crosstrek

Lincoln MKZ

Lexus ES

Kia Optima

Toyota Avalon

Honda Accord

Lexus CT

Hyundai Sonata

Toyota Camry

Ford C-MAX/Fusion

Toyota Prius/Prius C

HEV YTD Sales

0 5000 10000 15000

Toyota RAV4

Mercedes GLE

Honda Accord

Mitsubishi I

Porsche 918 Spyder

Porsche Panamera

Porsche Cayenne

Smart ForTwo

Ford Focus

BMW i8

Chevrolet Spark

Volkswagen Golf

Fiat 500

Toyota Prius

BMW i3

Chevrolet Volt/Cadillac ELR

Ford C-MAX/Fusion

Nissan Leaf

Tesla Model S

PHEV and BEV YTD Sales

BEV

PHEV

• Ford has the second highest selling HEV and the best selling PHEV in the US today

122k sales

Source : WardsAuto.com Reference Center

Global Electrified Vehicle Mix

FHEV

48%PHEV

39%

BEV

11%

MHEV

2%

2024

Source: 2015 LMC Automotive

2015 U.S. EV Sales

FHEV,

386,393

PHEV,

38,555

BEV,

53,641

Global Projected Sales Volume

FHEV

58%

PHEV

23%

BEV

7%

MHEV

12%

2019

4

Customer Requirements are Described in Vehicle Attributes

5

• What vehicle level attributes are relevant for Electrified Vehicles?

– Cost of Ownership

– “Fuel” Economy / Efficiency

– Performance (Launch, Maximum Vehicle Speed)

– Noise, Vibration, Harshness

– Towing capability

– Cargo volume

– Electric Range (Plug-in HEV & BEV)

– Electric Charging Speed (Plug-in HEV & BEV)

0

5

10

15

20

1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400

Ba

tte

ry I

nst

all

ed

Ca

pa

city

(k

Wh

)

Curb Weight (kg)

• For PHEVs, the battery is sized to deliver EV range

FHEV

PHEV

Range Extender PHEVs

Battery Installed Capacity vs. Curb Weight

6

Higher Cost

Global Regulations

US

CAN

EU

Brazil

China

4.7%

4.7%

5.1%

3.4%

5.5%

Average Annual FE / CO2 Improvement

Required by Regulation (2015-20)

• Global CO2 Regulations are becoming ever more stringent

• The average rate of improvement through 2020 is nearly 5% annually 7

0

5

10

15

20

1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400

Ba

tte

ry I

nst

all

ed

Ca

pa

city

(k

Wh

)

Curb Weight (kg)

FHEV

PHEV

Range Extender PHEVs

• Global regulations and competitive landscape are driving increased battery capacity

• Increased battery capacity yields more EV range and reduced CO2 emissions

• Luckily, battery energy and power density are continuously improving

Impact of Global Regulations

8

Future

Vehicle Package

• Package of a large High Voltage battery entails a trade-off with other attributes

– Cargo area, ride height, 5 person seating, etc. are all attributes impacted

– An acceptable trade-off on one application, such as cargo space in 5-door, may not be

acceptable in 4-door application

• Future vehicle platform architectures aim to package the HV battery with

minimal attribute tradeoffs

9

Caradvice.comKbb.com

Wot.motortrend.comMad4wheels.com

Guideautoweb.comMotorauthority.com

Automobilemag.com Automobilereporter.com 9

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Ca

rgo

Ca

pa

city

xE

V

(% o

f C

on

ve

nti

on

al

cap

aci

ty)

EV Range (miles)

• Battery capacity is often traded off against cargo capacity

and fuel tank size in BEVs and PHEVs

PHEV

BEV

10

100% = No Impact on Cargo Capacity

Worse

Better

EV Range vs. Cargo Capacity – Products in the Market

Distance Between Fuel Fill-ups

11

• Long distance between fill-ups yields better customer satisfaction than overall range

• PHEVs can significantly increase distance between fill-ups

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200

Cu

sto

me

r P

erc

en

tile

Distance Between Fill-ups (km)

32 km EV Range

48 km EV Range

64 km EV Range

80 km EV Range

• The average distance between fuel fill-ups for our

Ford C-Max PHEV customers is more than 670 miles

• More EV range means fewer fill-ups

Based on EUROFOT customer data

Assumes 38 MPG and 14 gallon tank

Assumes 1 charge per day

PHEVs with Electric EV Range Need Less Fuel Fill-ups

12

The Power of Choice 2016

HEV Plug-InBEVFusion Hybrid

C-Max HybridFusion Energi

C-Max EnergiFocus Electric

There is no one solution that satisfies all customer

requirements – the right solution depends on

individual usage profiles and needs.13