full year and fourth quarter 2017 earnings … · ethiopia: fertilizer customization benefits the...
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OCP FULL YEAR AND FOURTH QUARTER 2017 EARNINGS
CONFERENCE CALL PRESENTATION
MARCH 22ND 2018
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYAny use of this material without OCP’s specific permission is strictly prohibited
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT
This presentation has been prepared by OCP S.A. (“OCP”) strictly for discussion purposes, and contains certain statements that are, or may be
deemed to be, “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions set forth in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, liabilities, strategic, industrial, commercial plans and expected future financial
and operating results such as revenue growth and earnings. They are based on the current beliefs, expectations and assumptions of OCP’s
management as of the date on which they are made in connection with past and/or future financial results, and are subject to significant
uncertainties and risks, which OCP shall not be held liable for. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, risks and uncertainties
arising from the future success of current and strategic plans and future financial and operating results and reserves; changes in such plans and
results; any difficulty that OCP may experience with the realization of benefits and anticipated levels of capital expenditures for the second half of
year 2014 and beyond; the current and future volatility in the credit markets and future market conditions; OCP’s strategy in connection with
customer retention, growth, product development and market position; industry trends; volatility in commodity prices; changes in foreign currency,
interest and exchange rates; international trade risks; changes in government policy and developments in judicial or administrative proceedings in
jurisdictions which OCP is subject to; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including regulatory investigations and
proceedings; any natural events such as severe weather, fires, floods and earthquakes or man-made or other disruptions of OCP’s operating
systems, structures or equipment; the effectiveness of OCP’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; and OCP’s belief that it has sufficient
cash and liquidity and/or available debt capacity to fund future financial operations and strategic business investments. Actual results may differ
from those set forth in the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, and OCP undertakes no obligation to publicly update any of its
forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time, whether as a result of new information, future
developments or otherwise.
This presentation includes OCP’s financial statements which are produced in Moroccan Dirhams (the local currency) and presented in IFRS. For ease
of presentation, financial information included in this presentation is translated into U.S. Dollars, and these translated figures have not been
audited. For the purpose of such translated figures, OCP used the following exchange rate table, which sets forth the year average and year-end
Dirham/U.S. Dollar exchange rates for the following periods:
USD/MAD
2
3
LEADERSHIP des CAPACITÉS
LEADERSHIP des COÛTS
OCP STRATEGIC PILLARS
Costleadership
Capacity leadership
1 2
3
Industrial flexibilityCommercial agility
4
x2
OVER THE LAST DECADE, OCP HAS STRENGTHENED ITS
LEADERSHIP THROUGH ITS INVESTMENT PLAN...
MT
200726 MT
201838 MT
TRANSPORTROCK CAPACITY FERTILIZER CAPACITY
MT
2018
30
+47%
44
2007
OCP has successfully delivered Phase 1 of its CAPEX program…
…strengthening its export market shares in all segments
Rock
Phosphoric Acid
Fertilizers
2007 2017(1)
45% 37%
46% 46%
11% 22%
Source: IFA(1) Data for 2017 cover the first 9 months only
4
X 3
2018
12
2007
5
Caption
North America: +8.5%Europe: +1.9%
Africa: +8.2%Latin America: +2.6%
South Asia & Middle East:
+3.2%
Evolution of OCP fertilizer market share between 2007 and 2017 per region [in%]
World: +3.8%
Note: Market share calculated using IFA 9M data for 2017. It includes DAP, MAP, TSP.Regional import growth computed using CRU data.
2007
11%
2017
22%
2007 2017
53%
7%
31%20%
2007 2017
20172007
2%3%
15%25%
2007 2017
62%
2017
7%
2007
year
XX%OCP fertilizermarket share
Capacity closures
2007-2017
~-2,2 Mt P2O5
Capacity closures
2007-2017
~-1,2 Mt P2O5
…LEADING TO A STRONGER PRESENCE IN THE
FERTILIZER SEGMENT ACROSS MAJOR REGIONS
Regional fertilizer importgrowth 2007-17 (CAGR) +XX%
6
OCP’S STRATEGY TO UNLOCK AFRICAN DEMAND
IS MATERIALIZING
Strong demand growth in several African countries… …captured by OCP
336
7885
8699
101
183
399
504
Benin
20
17
3 646
Oth
ers
Guin
ea
Togo
Ghana
Kenya
Mozam
biq
ue
Nig
eria
20
15
2 447
Eth
iop
ia
Imports in thousand MT product OCP Sales in thousand MT product
2017
x6
2013
X5.6
50
20162007
1 652
2 503
X1.5
296
NPS NPKTSPDAP MAP
7
ETHIOPIA: FERTILIZER CUSTOMIZATION BENEFITS THE
FARMERS THROUGH HIGHER YIELDS AND LOWER PRICES
Development of customized fertilizers (NPS & NPS+) that increased yield up to 37% at lower price
DAP
NPS (OCP)
EthioSIS, a detailed soil fertility map defining the nutrient needs of Ethiopian soils and crops
Development of customized fertilizers for Ethiopian soils and crops
8
Enhanced and continued cost competiveness
Anticipated demand growth/Increased share in growing markets including Africa
Consolidated OCP’s leadership in the industry
Focus on innovation and product customization
Positioned to capture 50% of the incremental long term demand growth though continued investment
Key highlights
KEY TAKEAWAYS
1MARKET OVERVIEW & PERFORMANCE
9
2017: A STABLE MARKET ENVIRONNENT
Phosphate industry remained cyclically weakin 2017
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Global yearly DAP price evolution ($/T)
Source: CRU1: Yuzhny for Ammonia and Middle east for Sulfur
Actual 2016 Actual 2017
OCP DAP/MAP Price ($/T)
346 349
While feedstock prices were high
85
107
Sulfur Ammonia
234
265
Annual average FOB Price index1 ($/T)
10
20172016
STRONG PHOSPHATE FUNDAMENTALS
Phosphate resilience vs. other nutrients
Source: CRU, P-value is equivalent to the Commercial Gross Margin (CGM) = DAP Fob Morocco prices minus Raw material costs (Sulfur and Ammonia).
Supply & demand balance for 2016-2020
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Nitrogen Phosphoric Acid Potassium
Additional Demand Additional Supply
In MT Nutrient
100
111
117
85 85
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
P-value Urea Potash +2.0%
+1.2%
+1.8%
+1.8%
+3.2%
+1.8%
Supply p.a
Demand p.a
Nutrient values (base 100 in Jan 2013)
Expected plant closures in
North America
Source: Latest IFA Medium-Term Outlook on Fertilizer Supply, including newly announced plant idling/closures
11
MARKET ABSORBED +7 MT OF NEW FERTILIZER CAPACITIES
COMMISSIONED OVER THE LAST 3 YEARS
Capacity closure/ reduction
2014-2017 Balance
0,5
Other Capacities
1,61,1
OCP Capacity
0,4
All Excl. Africa
3,4
Africa
1,6
Supply Demand increase 2014/15- 2016/17
Delta Supply
(in Mt P2O5)
Delta Demand
(exl. China, in Mt P2O5)
Source: CRU, OCP for Africa figures
A strong demand growth over the last 3 years was not completely covered by new capacities and had to be supplied from additional Chinese exports
42% of demand growth
12
HIGH CONSUMPTION ACROSS KEY IMPORT MARKETS
Sources: GTIS, OCP, ANDA, Fertecon.
Sub-saharan Africa phosphate fertilizer imports in MT
Phosphate fertilizer deliveries in MT P2O5
Phosphate fertilizer consumption in MT P2O5
5.0 5,1
Deliveries2016 2017
6.06.3
2016 2017
3.0
3.6
Deliveries2016 2017
+20% +5%
+3%
13
Phosphates importsin MT
+35%
1.2
1.6
Deliveries2016 2017
STABLE CHINESE EXPORTS IN 2017 REFLECT
PRODUCTION DISCIPLINE
16,4
16,7
20172016
Lower y-o-y P2O5 production (in Mt P2O5)
14
2,72,0
2,7
8,0
6,86,4
10,7
2017
9,1
2016
8,8
2015
DAP-MAP ExportsJan-Dec (in Kt)
MAPDAP
Source: CFMW, GTIS
OCP EXPORT PERFORMANCE:
ROCK EXPORTS INCREASED ACROSS ALL REGIONS
+41%
7,0
11,1
AnnualSpare Capacity
2017Asia
0,7
Latin AmericaNorth America
0,6
1,3
Europe
0,67,9
2016
Rock exports regional breakdown 2017 vs. 2016 In million MT
Source: OCP
Annual capacity
of 18 million MT
15
OCP EXPORT PERFORMANCE:
PHOSPHORIC ACID CONSOLIDATED LEADERSHIP IN
SOUTH ASIA
EuropeAsian JVs
Others
Asian spot
Differentiation through Acid leadership: In Asia, OCP is the 2nd largest processed phosphate supplier
South Asia processed P2O51 imports in 2017
In million tons P2O5
OCP’s Acid exports in 2017In million tons P2O5
Total 1.9 MT P2O5
24%
35%
38%
3%
0,5
0,40,4
0,6
0,8
1,4
1,6
OthersSenegalJordanOCPChina Saudi Arabia
US
Sources: OCP, OCP INDIA OFFICE.
1. Excluding Purified Acid Exports from China16
RECORD FERTILIZER EXPORTS, DRIVEN BY AFRICAN
DEMAND AND CUSTOMIZED PRODUCTS
Source: OCP
* including minor decrease in Asia
Fertilizer export volumes trends since 2012
In million tons
OCP’s fertilizer exports in 2017
Breakdown of the increase* in fertilizer exports for 2017 In million tons
Asia
Africa
North America
Latin America
Europe
Largest global exporter of phosphate
fertilizers
30% of exports directed to Africa
1,638%
AfricaOther
regions
50%
Americas
13%
Premium products represented 43% of exports volumes in 2017 (vs. 40% in 2016)
17
3,53,1 3,0
2,4
3,94,6
0,91,0 1,0
0,8
1,1
1,1
0,7
1,0
1,6
2,4
0,1
2017
0,2
8,1
4,34,2
2013
4,4
6,5
20162014
4,7
2012 2015
DAP, MAP (Standard products) TSP NPKs and NPS
30%
18%27%
6%
20%
Fertilizer1 volumes sold in Africa reached an all-time
high of 2.5 MT in 2017
MARKET DYNAMICS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD
Positive demand outlook
S & D should more balanced
Positive to stable outlook:
Stable crop fundamentals outlook
Strong growth potential in Brazil and Africa
Positive outlook for India supported by generalized NBS
scheme, expectations of higher subsidies and lower
inventory levels
Dem
an
d
Market more balanced than expected:
Ramp-up of announced capacities (arrival of JPH4 from OCP
and ramp-up of Ma'aden)
Partly offset by plants closures/idling in North America
Lower potential supply from China driven by the
government stockpiling program, low inventories, rising
production costs and strengthening environmental
regulations.
Su
pp
lyFeed
sto
ck
Softer prices in 2H, resulting from the arrival of new
capacities
Sulfur volatility during the year might impact DAP prices
18
1FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
19
Revenue EBITDA
EBIT
In US$m In US$m
In US$m In US$m
Q1
+16%
Q3
Q4
Q2
FY 2017
5,005
1,136
1,194
1,352
1,324
FY 2016
4,331
1,056
1,164
1,058
1,053
294 333
312 262
334 438
363 280
FY 2016
+1%
1,303
Q2
1,313
Q3
Q4
FY 2017
Q1
243 189
175 122
223 283
205
95
846
FY 2016
688
Q4
FY 2017
Q1
Q3
Q2
-19%
FY 2017FY 2016
Capex disbursement
1 297
933
-28%
FY 2017 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
26%30%Margin
20
395
359
3
540
67
44
506
836
751
923
1 056
OthersFRET
-26
Fertilizers volumes
Acid price
-88
Rock price
-227
Rock volume
FY 2016
4,331
Acid volumes
+16%
Others
Fertilizers
Acid
2,177
FY 2017
5,005
2,692
Fertilizers price
Rock
FY 2017 REVENUE BREAKDOWN
FY 2016 revenue by Product
In US$m
FY 2017 Revenues by segment
54%
15%
21%
10%
Fertilizers Acid Rock Other
50%
19%
21%
9%
Fertilizers Acid Rock Other
2017
2016
21
22
FY 2017 EBITDA PERFORMANCE
5851
5131
5739
309
606
OthersPersonnal expenses
External expenses
Purchases consumed
Transport EBITDA 2017EnergyRevenueEBITDA 2016
1.303 1.313
Raw materials
In US$m
Debt Profile Snapshot¹;²Liquidity Snapshot and Debt
Maturity Schedule Net Financial Debt
US$bn US$m
Leverage
Source: OCP
1. As at 31 December 2017, “Other” includes current financial debts, bank overdraft and accrued interests
2. USD/MAD exchange rates of 9.3276 as of 31/12/2017
3. Other notably includes Sovereign guaranteed bank loan, Domestic bond, Finance lease liabilities
Bank
loans41%
Domestic
hybrid
bond8%
Internat.
bond43%
Other³
8%
FOCUS ON LIQUIDITY AND LEVERAGE (FY 2017)
3.5x
3 771
4 614
FY 2016 FY 2017
Reported net debt
0.6 0,5 0,50,4
0,3 0,2 0,2 0,1
0,2
1,3
1,6
0,5
2018 2020 2022 2024
Domestic Hybrid bond
Internat. bond
Domestic bond
Bank Debt
23
2.9x
Q&A
24