full year results - restaurant group full year... · • leisure park leadership – clear...

Full Year Results52 Weeks to 27 December 2015

Danny Breithaupt

CEO

Introduction

2 0 1 5 F u l l y e a r r e s u l t s2

• Another record set of financial results

• Turnover up 8%

• Profit before tax up 11%

• EPS up 13%

• 44 new openings – On track to deliver strong returns

• Balanced Portfolio strategy under way

• Challenging backdrop continues – Initiatives in place

Introduction


Stephen Critoph

Chief F inancial Off icer

Financial Review


Financial highlights


2015 FY 2014 FY %

£m £m change

Revenue 685.4 635.2 +7.9%

Company EBITDA 128.0 117.0 +9.4%

Profit before taxation 86.8 78.1 +11.2%

Earnings per share 33.8p 30.0p +12.8%

Dividend per share 17.4p 15.4p +13.0%

Free cash flow 97.2 85.5 +13.7%

New sites 44 40

Revenue growth


Income statement – Site profitability


2015 FY 2014 FY %

£m £m change

Revenue 685.4 635.2 7.9%

Site Ebitda 170.5 154.4 10.4%

% 24.9% 24.3%

Site Depreciat ion 38.2 35.8

% 5.6% 5.6%

Site profit 132.3 118.6 11.5%

% 19.3% 18.7%

Income statement


2015 FY 2014 FY %

£m £m change

Site profit 132.3 118.6 11.5%

% 19.3% 18.7%

Administrat ion (38.0) (33.4)

% 5.5% 5.3%

Underlying operat ing profit 94.3 85.2 10.7%

% 13.8% 13.4%

Pre-opening costs (5.4) (4.7)

Operating profit 88.9 80.5 10.5%

% 13.0% 12.7%

Interest (2.1) (2.4)

Profit before Tax 86.8 78.1 11.2%

Tax - Trading (19.4) (18.0)

% 22.4% 23.0%

Profit after Tax 67.4 60.1

EPS - Trading 33.8p 30.0p 12.8%

• Food and beverage input costs• Modest deflation in 2015• 2016 full year inflation outlook benign

• Labour costs• October 2015 national minimum wage increase was 3%• National Living Wage of £7.20 for over 25 year olds in April 2016• Direct cost to Company c. £2m in 2016

• Rents• Continued modest upward movement on five yearly rent reviews (9-11%)• C. 2% per annum on an annualized basis

• Utilities• Electricity contracts fixed until October 2017• Main gas contract fixed until April 2017

Cost update


• Strong Balance Sheet

• Strong finances

• Revolving credit facility renewed for five years to June 2020• Annual Rent Roll £74m per annum• Fixed charge cover : 2.7x (2014: 2.7x)

Balance sheet and key ratios


As at 27

December

2015

As at 28

December

2014

£m £m

Non-current assets 430.1 395.0

Current assets 38.0 29.4Total assets 468.1 424.4

Current liabilities (136.4) (121.6)

Non-current liabilities (48.1) (58.3)

Net assets 283.6 244.5

Memo: net bank debt (28.4) (38.6)

• Continuing investment in new sites and existing estate

• Guidance for 2016 total capex of £75-85m

Capital expenditure & development


2015 FY 2014 FY£m £m

Development expenditure 55.1 50.1

Refurbishment & maintenance expenditure 19.7 20.0

Total fixed asset additions 74.8 70.1

Number of new units 44 40

Cash flow


2015 FY 2014 FY£m £m

Operating profit 88.9 80.5

Working capital & non-cash adjustments 7.5 8.0

Depreciation 39.1 36.5

Net cash flow from operations 135.5 125.0

Net interest paid (1.0) (1.3)

Tax paid (17.6) (18.2)

Maintenance capital expenditure (19.7) (20.0)

Free cash flow 97.2 85.5

Development capital expenditure (55.1) (50.1)

Div idends (ordinary) (32.1) (29.5)

Purchase of shares for EBT (1.7) (5.3)

Other items 1.9 2.7

Change in net debt 10.2 3.3

Net bank debt at start of period (38.6) (41.9)

Net bank debt at end of period (28.4) (38.6)

• C. 40 sites under negotiation• C. 100 other sites under consideration

Good visibility on future pipeline


2016 2017 2018+

Contracted 29 13 7

Terms Agreed 12 12 17

41 25 24

2 0 1 5 F u l l y e a r r e s u l t s

Continued focus on strong ROI

14

* By year of opening (2015 EBITDA/Initial Capex)

• Continuing strong return on Invested Capital

Continuing focus on total ROIC


2015 FY 2014 FY %

£m £m change

Site Ebit 132.3 118.6 +11.5%

Company EBIT 88.9 80.5 +10.5%

Average Invested Capital * 297.5 270.5 +10.0%

Site ROI % 44.5% 43.9% +60bps

Company ROI % 29.9% 29.7% +20bps

* Invested Capital = Net Assets plus Debt

• Record financial performance• Underpinned by high levels of site profitability

• Strong cash flow generation• Development and maintenance capex financed out of internally

generated cash flow

• Consistently high returns on existing and new sites

• Growing dividends backed by cash flow

Summary


17

Danny BreithauptCEO

Operational Reviewand Outlook


• To operate in segments displaying three keycharacteristics:

• Distinct barriers to entry• High returns• Good growth prospects

• To focus on our skill base and strong brands:

• Serving good quality food• Providing popular and affordable price points• Attracting a wide cross section of the UK population

• To build businesses with leading market positions

TRG strategy


TRG strategy

19

• A key objective of ours:

To double in size from 445 sites whilst ensuring we bringbalance to the portfolio


20

Our portfolio in 2014


Frankie&

Benny’s

53%

Chiquito

16%

Concession

14%

Pubs

11%

Coast toCoast

2%

Other

4%

• Opened 84 restaurants in two years

The change in opening mix


40 in 2014

Frankie & Benny’s

19

Chiquito

8

Concessions

7

Pubs

3

Coast

3

Frankie & Benny’s

14

Chiquito

9

Concessions

7

Pubs

3

Coast

8

44 in 2015

Joe’sKitchen

3

22

Evolution of the portfolio


Chiquito

17%

Concession

12%

Pubs

11%

Coast toCoast

4%Other

4%

Frankie&

Benny’s

52%

Frankie&

Benny’s

40%

Chiquito

23%

Concession

9%

Pubs

11%

Coastto

Coast

11%

Other

6%

Today:

Future:

• Availability of new sites still strong

• Focused on:

• Strong returns only• Sites we can win, strict selection criteria• Away from high streets, where competition is less intense• Total growth

• Balanced approach is delivering:

• Leisure park leadership – Clear competitive advantage• Unique pub locations with limited competition• Best in class in airports• Further brand development e.g. Joe’s Kitchen• Total profit growth

Site strategy


The competitive landscape


UK Casual Dining Market estate sizes (as of 10th February 2016)

*Bill’s, Turtle Bay and Franco Manca were not tracked in 2014Source: Morar Consulting - ‘Winter Big Restaurant Survey 2015

2015 2014Increase in

sites% growth

Pizza Express 443 421 22 5.2%

Nando's 365 322 43 13.4%

Pizza Hut 270 302 -32 -10.6%

Frankie & Benny's 261 247 14 5.6%

Hungry Horse 245 231 14 6.1%

Sizzling Pubs 236 212 24 11.3%

Prezzo 234 201 33 16.4%

Harvester 230 214 16 7.5%

Toby Carvery 174 157 17 10.8%

Fayre & Square 161 159 2 1.3%

Brewers Fayre 159 150 9 6.0%

Beefeater 146 140 6 4.3%

Ember Inns 146 130 16 12.3%

Flaming Grill 142 100 42 42.0%

Zizzi 141 136 5 3.7%

Chef & Brewer 136 134 2 1.5%

Wagamama 119 110 9 8.2%

ASK 111 109 2 1.8%

Carluccio's 98 83 15 18.1%

Bella Italia 97 92 5 5.4%

Café Rouge 90 130 -40 -30.8%

2015 2014Increase in

sites% growth

Table Table 86 105 -19 -18.1%

Chiquito 86 80 6 7.5%

YO! Sushi 75 55 20 36.4%

TGI Friday's 73 61 12 19.7%

Côte 73 51 22 43.1%

Bill's* 72 35 37 105.7%

GBK 69 59 10 16.9%

Giraffe 62 54 8 14.8%

Byron 57 44 13 29.5%

Strada 43 56 -13 -23.2%

Jamie's Italian 42 34 8 23.5%

Miller & Carter 41 33 8 24.2%

Loch Fyne 38 42 -4 -9.5%

Chimichanga 38 40 -2 -5.0%

Le Pain Quotidien 27 26 1 3.8%

Turtle Bay* 27 10 17 170.0%

Wahaca 20 12 8 66.7%

Franco Manca* 19 3 16 533.3%

Brasserie Blanc 18 20 -2 -10.0%

TOTAL 4970 4600 370 8.0%

• Previously two sites generating £80k per weekcollectively

• New cinema scheme introduced 6 newrestaurants, we took 3, 50%

• Additional sales - £125k per week

• Existing sites - Reduced individual site sales by£15k per week

• Net gain - £95k per week

• Therefore existing sites are affected asexpected, however net gain is substantial

Case study – Frankie & Benny’s, Stoke


• Competitors are improving

• Brands remain strong and popular

• Total growth continues to be positive

• Newly created brands now gaining momentum

• Portfolio becoming more balanced

Site selection



• Profitability - Still best in class

• Targets - 261 sites at year end, 350+ over time

• Openings - 14 in 2015, similar anticipated for 2016

• New space - Continuing strong performance

• Demand remains strong - Especially at weekends

• Avg. spend - Growing with further opportunity

• Data base - 1.4m opted in users

• The task - Ongoing brand evolution


Challenges:

• Cinema pricing and midweek offers

• Changing consumer approach to retail

• Lunch - Tougher climate due to improving highstreet

• Balancing the portfolio

• Weekends - Exceeding capacity

• Competition for guests


Our initiatives:

• Cinema - Midweek value menus to drive footfall

• Value awareness - Regional above the lineadvertising in play

• New App - Building loyalty and engagement

• Menu updated - Breakfast and lunch launched inFebruary

• Capacity management - extra covers being addedweekly

32

• Market opportunity to double in size - Opened 9sites in 2015

• Strong pipeline

• Almost all sites now refurbished

• Excellent new space performance

• All day offer improving year on year


33

• Distinct appeal, 18-35 year olds

• Market leading in Tex Mex dining

• Average spend now £15.50

• Menu now 85% fresh

• Very little retail exposure


2012 2015

Avg. spend per customer at FY15

£15.50

£13.16

Coast to Coast - placeholder


35

• Market opportunity for 100+ sites

• 8 new sites opened in 2015 - New site sales bestin class

• Unique in its offer, works across various platforms

• New menus broadening appeal - 85% fresh food

• Opening without advertising - Gaining realtraction with core guests

• Average spend £16.75 and growing


• Strongest performance ever in 2015

• Opened three pubs in 2015

• 5 - 7 planned for 2016

• Unique in a growing market place

• Midlands presence now being built

• Excellent opportunities to continue the growthof the Pub business

Pub restaurants


• Individual menus offer ongoing pricing flexibility

• High average spend driven by dwell times

• Improved build cost efficiencies

• Return on investment substantial

• Medium to long term opportunities excellent

Pub restaurants: Huge opportunity


40

• A year of significant growth - 7 sites opened across5 different locations

• Continued strong returns - Mixture of home grownand franchised

• Airport relationships - Stronger than ever

• Further opportunities - Both regional andinternational terminals


41

• Airports - Passengers numbers still growing,increased 5.5% in 2015

• Avg. spend per passenger grew 3.3%

• Manchester T1 L4L units delivered double-digit £ppgrowth in 2015

• New units in Birmingham, Liverpool and GatwickSouth delivered exceptional Y-o-Y £pp growth inthose terminals

• Flexibility - Has become a key strength for us

• Retail environments - Constantly improving


43

• 3 sites up and running

• Similar number to open this year

• Complementary offer to existing brands andadds another leg

• Fits in well with our balanced portfolio strategy

• Early days but signs are encouraging


• Economic outlook mixed

• Like for likes for the first 10 weeks: -1.5%, total sales: +6%

• Total growth and returns are strong

• Clear opening pipeline for 2016 and beyond

• Strategy on track, people in place, business becoming morebalanced

• On target to achieve 850+ sites having hit 500+ already

Outlook and summary


Q&A


Alan Jackson

Chai rman

Concluding Remarks


Appendices


Estate development – 2001 to 2015

48


Strong cash generation

49


Focused on driving returns on investment

50


Like-for-like sales growth by announcement date

51


Track record of HY & FY profit growth

52


Track record of dividend growth

53


Roll out potential

January 14 December 15 Marketpotential

F&B 232 261 350+

Chiquito 73 86 200+

Coast toCoast

10 21 100+

PubRestaurants

49 54 100+

Concessions 60 61 80+

Other 21 23 60+

Total 445 506 850-950+

54

• Supply issues

• Total pub and restaurant outlet supply flat

• Structural Shifts

• From Independents to branded restaurants

• From Independents to Food led managed pubs

• Leisure and retail space development strong

• 1550 leisure and retail parks/ schemes in UK

• 242 of which have development proposals

• 79 new schemes in pipeline 2016 to 2021Source: Definitive Guide to Leisure & Retail Parks 2015

Supply backdrop & space availability


CAGR CAGR

No of outlets ('000) 2012 2015 2018 2012-15 2015-18

Total service led restaurants 35.1 33.7 33.0 -1.3% -0.7%

Total fast food 33.8 36.7 40.0 2.8% 2.9%

Total pubs 52.8 49.8 47.6 -1.9% -1.5%

Total Food & Beverage outlets 121.7 120.2 120.6 -0.4% 0.1%


Pub and restaurant sector evolution - outlets

56

CAGR CAGR

No of outlets ('000) 2012 2015 2018 2012-15 2015-18

Independent restaurants 31.0 29.1 27.8 -2.1% -1.5%

Branded restaurants 4.1 4.6 5.2 3.8% 4.2%

Total service led restaurants 35.1 33.7 33.0 -1.3% -0.7%

Independent f/food t/away 29.5 31.8 34.3 2.5% 2.6%

Branded fast food 4.3 4.9 5.7 4.7% 4.7%

Total fast food 33.8 36.7 40.0 2.8% 2.9%

Tenanted/ independent pubs 44.5 40.7 37.7 -2.9% -2.6%

Branded/ managed pubs 8.3 9.1 9.9 3.1% 3.1%

Total pubs 52.8 49.8 47.6 -1.9% -1.5%

Total 121.7 120.2 120.6 -0.4% 0.1%

Source: Allegra - The UK Restaurant Market 2015


Pub and restaurant sector evolution - £Bn

57

CAGR CAGR

£Bn 2012 2015 2018 2012 - 15 2015-18

Independent restaurants 16.27 15.49 14.83 -1.6% -1.4%

Branded restaurants 4.09 4.89 6.08 6.1% 7.5%

Total service led restaurants 20.36 20.38 20.91 0.0% 0.9%

Independent f/food t/away 5.46 5.93 6.5 2.8% 3.1%

Branded fast food 4.61 5.36 6.28 5.2% 5.4%

Total fast food 10.07 11.29 12.78 3.9% 4.2%

Tenanted/ independent pubs 12.75 12.33 12.74 -1.1% 1.1%

Branded/ managed pubs 8.27 9.52 11.18 4.8% 5.5%

Total pubs 21.02 21.85 23.92 1.3% 3.1%

Total 51.45 53.52 57.61 1.3% 2.5%

Source: Allegra - The UK Restaurant Market 2015

full year results - restaurant group full year... · • leisure park leadership – clear...

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