Future Earth:Vision and implementation

Royal Irish Academy 17th September 2014

Frans Berkhout

‘Great acceleration’

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IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al. 2004

What is Future Earth?

A global platform for scientific collaboration•Enabling integrated research on grand challenges and transformations to sustainability •Strengthening partnerships between researchers, funders and users of research•Solutions-oriented, building knowledge needed to accelerate transformations to sustainability•Communicating science to society and society to science

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Future Earth’s Sponsors: The Alliance

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Our objective

To build and connect global knowledge to intensify the impact of research and find

new ways of accelerating sustainable development

Future Earth Research Themes

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And cross-cutting issues: Observing systems, models, theory development, data management, research infrastructures

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Models of knowledge production

The ‘linear’ model of science and society

Co-production of knowledge

Evolution of GEC Programmes

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GEC Core Projects

International scientific networks: ~60,000 scientists

WGs andCouncils

Key functions of Future Earthand its core projects

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1. Convening global science

2. Setting research agendas

4. Coordinating

frontier research

5.Communicating research, 2-

way

6. Engaging decision-makers

3. Mobilising capacity

Convening global science• ecoHealth: 2014 conference

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Agenda-settingecoSERVICES: links between biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and services

Frontier sciencePAGES: Past Global Changes

Communicating Science• Global Carbon Project: Global Carbon Atlas

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Engaging policyEarth System Governance: Global governance for sustainability

Mobilising capacityCLIVAR: Variability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system

Inputs to global assessmentsIntergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

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Launched, Apr. 2012, Panama

IPBES-1, Jan. 2013, Germany

IPBES-2, Dec. 2013, Turkey

Implementing Future Earth

Interim Secretariat @ ICSU (July 2013-end 2014)

A.Completing the architectureB.Advancing Future Earth scienceC.Engaging stakeholdersD.Building awarenessE.Securing new resources

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A. Future Earth governance

CoreProject

Otheractivities

CoreProject

CoreProject

CoreProject

Otheractivities

CoreProject

CoreProject

CoreProject

Completing the architecture

• Science Committee: announced June 2013• Interim Engagement Committee: Nov 2013• Engagement Committee: announcement Sept

2014• Future Earth Council: announcement Sept 2014• Executive Secretariat: announcement of 5-node

consortium, July 2014• Core project affiliation: transition process

working smoothly (transition statement, MOU)

Future Earth Executive Secretariat

• Global hubs• Canada (Montreal)• France (Paris)• Japan (Tokyo)• Sweden (Stockholm)• United States (Boulder, CO)

• Regional hubs (proposed)• Latin America• Asia• Europe• Middle East and North Africa

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Operational:January 2015

New secured funding:$6-7M/year

B. Advancing science• 2025 vision: Success Factors for Future

EarthPublish October 2014

• Strategic Research Agenda 2014: Agenda-setting for funders

Launch October 2014

• Short-term initiatives: Fast track initiatives and cluster activities

Announced July 2014

2025 Vision1. ChallengesInspired and created ground-

breaking interdisciplinary science relevant to major global sustainability challenges

2. OutputsDelivered products and services

that our societal partners need to achieve these challenges

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3. Approaches:Pioneered approaches to co-

design and co-produce solutions-oriented science, knowledge and innovation for global sustainable development

4. CapacitiesEnabled and mobilised

capacities to co-produce knowledge, across cultural and social differences, geographies and generations

Strategic Research Agenda

• Request from IGFA/Belmont Forum of funders (September 2013)

• Medium term (3-5 year) research priorities for IGFA/Belmont initiatives and national funders

• Three sets of inputs:

a. Consultation with the GEC research communityb. Engagement with societal partnersc. Assessment of recent and on-going priority-setting

processes

SRA 2014A. Dynamic Planet

1. Observing and attributing change2. Understanding processes, risks and thresholds3. Projecting and predicting futures

B. Global Development1. Meeting basic needs and overcoming inequalities2. Governing sustainable development3. Managing growth, synergies and trade-offs

C. Transformations to sustainability1. Understanding and evaluating transformations2. Identifying and promoting sustainable behaviours3. Transforming development pathways

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Linking our vision to priorities

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Challenges

ResearchPriorities

Outputs,Approaches,

Capacities

Short-term Initiatives

• Fast Track Initiatives and Clusters• Funding from NSF

• 10 new initiatives funded (~$100k each)• Global nitrogen cycle• Biodiversity observation• Seasonal and sub-seasonalforecasts for Africa

• ….

E. Securing new resources

•Commitments towards Executive Secretariat•Funding for short-term initiatives•Dialogue with development funders (ICSU-led)•ISSC T2S programme (ISSC-led)•New funding model: Informing Belmont Forum discussions at their October 2014 meeting

Funding landscape

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Type A - Glue money for networking/programming (order M€)• Managing/coordinating GEC programs (4 secretariats)• Managing/coordinating GEC projects (circa 30 IPOs)

Type B - International research consortia (order 10M€)• Sustaining research teams across boundaries

Type C - National emergent programs (order 100M€)• Improving capacity to develop new proactive

programs, including interdisciplinary

Type D - Blue/grey sky research (order 1000M€)• Sustaining disciplinary research• Building on the large long-term potential of a new generation of

scientists

Engaging with Future Earth

• Encourage participation in existing GEC projects• Creating national Future Earth platforms• Partnering with Future Earth

• 2015 FTI Call (open)• Call for new Future Earth Core

Projects/Initiatives (early 2015)• Inputs to 2017 Strategic Research Agenda

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Website: www.futureearth.orgFacebook: www.facebook.com/futureearth.orgTwitter: @FutureEarth

Future Earth and IGFA/Belmont initiatives

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Belmont Forum

High ImpactCollaborative

Research Actions(CRAs)

IGFA

Scientific community

Via Funders

Via Future Earth