future forces, opportunities, and dilemmas what does it mean for principals? future forces and...
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Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas
What Does It Mean For Principals?Future Forces And School Staffing
Moving Forward
Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas
Moving Forward
What Does It Mean For Principals?Future Forces And School Staffing
Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas
Centralized control Empowered periphery
Direction of Change
Stable professions Dynamic, entrepreneurial ones
One size fits all Custom fit
Proprietary knowledge Collectively generated knowledge
Computer Labs Pervasive, media-rich learning
* KnowledgeWorks Foundation, Map of Future Forces, 2006
Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas
* KnowledgeWorks Foundation, Map of Future Forces, 2006
Explosion of Learning Agents
Deep Personalization
Unbundling of Education
Open Source Curriculum
Global Trade in Pedagogy
Standards --Personalization
Supporting Teachers’ Rights -- Changing Teachers’ Roles Digital Natives --
Digital immigrants
Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas
What Does It Mean For Principals?Future Forces And School Staffing
Moving Forward
The First Reality:Teacher AttritionThe First Reality:Teacher Attrition
Trends in Teacher Attrition
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Entrants Leavers
Trends in Teacher Attrition
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Entrants Leavers
Trends in Teacher Attrition
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Entrants Leavers
Trends in Teacher Attrition
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Non-retirement leavers Retirees
Generation X Generation Y
Beginning Teacher Attrition is a Serious Problem
14% 24% 33% 40% 46%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year
Teacher Turnover Is Increasing
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
All Teachers
Public SchoolTeachers
Urban Teachers
16.8%
16.5%
15.7%
15.1%
20.2%
15.9%
2000-01 2004-05
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Salary
Benefits
Prestige
Adv. Opportunities
Recognition/Support
Influence
Resources
Working Conditions
Workload
Teacher Leavers Better in current position Better in teaching
Consequences of Teacher and Principal Churn
Average SchoolPrincipal
experience at current school ?
Teacher experience at current school?
4 years43.6% have 3 years or less
Teacher Turnover is Expensive --
High turnover schools struggle to improve teaching quality and rarely close the student achievement gap because they are constantly rebuilding their staff.
$ 7.3 Billion A Year
NCTAF 2007
Teacher Turnover Can Be Reduced • Teacher Preparation – strong content knowledge
coupled with intensive clinical practice experiences.• School Culture – extensive induction support in a
collaborative team environment. • Professional Growth Opportunities – continuous and
embedded in the day-to-day work of the school.
NCTAF.ORG 2007
The Second Reality:Teacher RetirementThe Second Reality:Teacher Retirement
Public School Teacher Age Distribution(2003-2004)
Total Teachers 3,250,625(Public Schools)
Less than 40 1,338,039 = 41.2%(Gen X & Y)
Between 40 & 58 1,732,134 = 53.3%(Boomers)
Over 58 180,462 = 5.6%(Veterans)
Age Distribution of Public School Teachers
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
20 30 40 50 60 70
1993–94 1999–2000 2003–04 # of Teachers
Age
Dangerous Demographics…….
• Loss at the front-end: novice teachers
• Loss at the end-end: retiring teachers
A School Staffing Tsunami
Teacher Attrition + Teacher Retirement =
The Great Wave by Hokusai 1832
VETERANS (63 plus)(Silent Generation)
38 Million Americans
Respect experience
Duty before pleasure
Eager to conform to
group roles
Equate age with status
and power
See change as disruptive
and undesirable
BABY BOOMERS (43-62)
76 million Americans Enjoy and value teamworkWant to get with the programAre willing to go the extra mileHave good people skillsEmbrace equity and fairnessLike to receive credit and public
recognitionLess flexible when it comes to
changeRetiring but want to stay
engaged
GEN-XERS (26-45)39 million AmericansTechnical savvy and creativityWork best with members of their
own choosingSelf-reliant, skeptical of authorityEmbrace alternative workplace
structuresPrefer informal roles and freedom
to complete tasks their own wayWilling to challenge higher upsCore of the work force —but the
trough in the teaching chart!
NEXTERS (25 and under)GEN Y or MILLENNIALS
Diversity as a norm Idealistic CollaborativeCommunication is constantOpen to new challengesPrefer a flattened hierarchyWired – grew up digitalShould be replacement for
retiring teachers
Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas
Moving Forward
…. from Teaching 1.0 to Teaching 2.0
Future Forces, Opportunities, and DilemmasFuture Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas
Moving ForwardMoving Forward
Future Forces, Opportunities, and DilemmasFuture Forces, Opportunities, and DilemmasFuture Forces, Opportunities, and DilemmasFuture Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas
Moving Forward
Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas
What Does It Mean For Principals?Future Forces And School Staffing
Teaching 1.0: Stand and Deliver
Expect new teachers to work as solo practitioners, without support in self-contained classrooms.
Assume we can improve schools one teacher at a time.Assume recruitment, hiring and replacement practices of
the past will work today.Assume new teachers are making a lifetime commitment
to replace retiring teachers.Invest all our efforts at the front end in preparation and
hiring with little attention to ongoing professional development and career advancement.
Expect all teachers to do essentially the same job throughout their careers.
Teaching Alone In a Flat World
From Dr. Kildare to Medical Teams
From Perry Mason….to Legal Teams
From Superheroes to Super Teams
From Flash Gordon to NASA
From the Stand Alone Teacher of the 1950s…
…to the Stand Alone Teacher of the 21st Century
What Does It All Mean?
Time to think differently…..
Teaching is a Team Sport
Multiple teaching roles, positions, and levels of expertise coming together in cross-generational teams.
Staged options for transitioning within the profession: part-time positions, mentors, coaches, job-sharing, team leaders, tutors, digital media specialists, etc.
Blended face-to-face and online teaching & learning created and led by teachers who are learning experts. (Bricks and Clicks Schools).
Shared responsibility for the success of all students.
When educators join forces, they can improve learning beyond what any of them can accomplish
alone!
In Teaching 2.0…
In Teaching 2.0…Multigenerational Teams Create Genuine Learning Organizations
Collaboration replaces solo teaching in self-contained classrooms.
Modularized and personalized. Constant communication and assessment to improve
teaching and learning.Digital technology is fully exploited. A user driven learning economy.
Hotspots!
Deep Personalization
Explosion of Learning Agents
Expanded Learning Economy
Media-Rich Pervasive Learning
VUCA Communities
?
Future Forces, Opportunities, and Dilemmas
* KnowledgeWorks Foundation, Map of Future Forces, 2006
Explosion of Learning Agents
Deep Personalization
Unbundling of Education
Open Source Curriculum
Global Trade in Pedagogy
Standards --Personalization
Supporting Teachers’ Rights -- Changing Teachers’ Roles Digital Natives --
Digital immigrants
Suggested Resources
• “Building a 21st Century U. S. Education System” (available at www.nctaf.org)
• KnowledgeWorks Foundation, “Map of Future Forces” (available at www.kwfdn.org)
• NCTAF web site – www.nctaf.org
2100 M Street, NW
Suite 660
Washington, DC 20037
202-429-2570
Karen Smith, Chief Operating [email protected]
WWW.NCTAF.ORG