future intelligence dealing with uncertainty through scenario dynamics. philippe gabilliet, escp-eap
TRANSCRIPT
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FUTURE INTELLIGENCEFUTURE INTELLIGENCE
Dealing with uncertainty through scenario dynamics.
Philippe Gabilliet, ESCP-EAPPhilippe Gabilliet, ESCP-EAP
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« Looking at the human beings living their lives,
I can confirm that
their one and almost only preoccupation
is to live their future in advance, »
Jean Sutter
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FACES OF UNCERTAINTYFACES OF UNCERTAINTY
?
GLOBAL
MANAGERIAL
PERSONALSOCIAL
MARKETS
CORPORATE
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CURRENT UNCERTAINTYBasic ingredients
CURRENT UNCERTAINTYBasic ingredients
1° - ACCELERATING CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT
2° - LOOSING LANDMARKS AND BLIND FLYING
3° - AN ERA OF COMPLEXITY
4° - REDISCOVERING INERTIA
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UNCERTAINTY : the four levels(from : Courtney, Kirkland, Viguerie)
UNCERTAINTY : the four levels(from : Courtney, Kirkland, Viguerie)
A CLEAR ENOUGH FUTURE
A single forecast precise enough for determining strategy.
ALTERNATE FUTURES
1
3
2
A few discrete outcomes that define the future.
A RANGE OF FUTURES
A range of possible outcomes, but no natural scenarios
TRUE AMBIGUITY
No basis to forecast the future.
?
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ACCESSING TO THE FUTUREThree ways
ACCESSING TO THE FUTUREThree ways
* By the PAST => FORESEEING
* By the FUTURE => PREDICTING
* By the PRESENT => ANTICIPATING
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FACING THE FUTURESix ways to think about tomorrow
FACING THE FUTURESix ways to think about tomorrow
THE OSTRICH
THE FIREMAN
THE GAMBLER
THE INSURER
THE SENTINEL
THE EXPLORER
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FACE THE FUTUREThree standpoints
FACE THE FUTUREThree standpoints
REACTIVITY The executive is ready to face changes he ignores all about
PRE-ACTIVITY The executive is ready to face changes predictably enough
PRO-ACTIVITY The executive behaves to produce changes that he wishes
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THE « A » FORMULA THE « A » FORMULA
MANTICI-PATION
D
I
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ANTICIPATINGFour principles for action
ANTICIPATINGFour principles for action
1° - MAKING THE RIGHT DECISION AS A BET
2° - SEARCHING THE CAUSE IN THE FUTURE
3° - REHEARSING THE CRITICAL OPTIONS
4° - THINKING THE COMING LINKS
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WHAT COULD YOU TELL US
ABOUT YOURSELF
WITHIN 10 YEARS FROM NOW ?
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2015
2005
FUTURE LANDMARKS
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« I am myself,
and my circumstances...»
M. Ortega y Gasset
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FUTURE : Three groundsFUTURE : Three grounds
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2015
2005
FUTURE LANDMARKS
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FOUR QUESTIONS FOUR QUESTIONS
What are the driving forces ?
What is inevitable ?
What do you feel is uncertain ?
How about your main areas of free-will and basic options ?
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2015
2005
FUTURE LANDMARKS
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2015
2005
FUTURE LANDMARKS
1. B……………
2. N…………….
3. T…………… 4. B………….. S……….
5. S………….
6. O………… F………
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FUTURE : my key decisionsFUTURE : my key decisions
MYMYDECISIONSDECISIONS
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FUTURE-ORIENTED EXECUTIVESThe Fifth Question
FUTURE-ORIENTED EXECUTIVESThe Fifth Question
WHAT MAY HAPPEN ?
(alternatives)
WHAT WILL WE DO ?(strategy)
HOW TO DO IT ?(planning)
WHAT MAY WE DO ?(options)
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FUTURE OF THE EXECUTIVESome basic assumptions
FUTURE OF THE EXECUTIVESome basic assumptions
FREE DOM AND RISK
SYSTEMATIC MOVES AND SHARED POWER
WILL AND PROJECT
INTUITION AND AWARENESS
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« Looking into the future, is changing it already»
Gaston Berger
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LOOKING AT THE FUTURE The 6 tracks
LOOKING AT THE FUTURE The 6 tracks
LOOKING FAR AHEAD
LOOKING GLOBALLY
LOOKING IN DEPTH
LOOKING RATIONALLY
LOOKING AT DIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS
LOOKING WITH OTHERS
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FUTUREIMAGE
1
FUTUREIMAGE
2
FUTUREIMAGE
3CURRENTSYSTEM
PATHWAY
PATHWAY
WHAT IS A SCENARIO ?WHAT IS A SCENARIO ?
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SCENARIOS MATRIX(from Ilbury & Sunter)
SCENARIOS MATRIX(from Ilbury & Sunter)
CONTROL
CERTAINTYUNCERTAINTY
ABSENCE OF CONTROL
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FOUR COMON SENSE IDEAS ABOUT THE FUTURE
FOUR COMON SENSE IDEAS ABOUT THE FUTURE
IT WILL NOT BE PERFECT
IT WILL BE THE PRODUCT OF AN ENVIRONMENT
IT ALREADY EXISTS
MANAGERS WHO GET READY FOR IT TODAY WIL BE THE BEST EQUIPPED TOMORROW
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« Time scorns what is done in haste»
Paul Morand