future mobile communications in the networked societies
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August 8, 2002 Stanford University. Future Mobile Communications In The Networked Societies. Shingo Ohmori Communications Research Laboratory [email protected]. Contents. Some Statistics of Internet and Mobile Communications Future Trends of Mobile Communications - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Communications Research Laboratory
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Future Mobile CommunicationsIn The Networked Societies
Shingo OhmoriCommunications Research Laboratory
August 8, 2002Stanford University
Communications Research Laboratory
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Contents
Some Statistics of Internet and Mobile Communications
Future Trends of Mobile Communications
R&D for Future Mobile Communications
Support of Social Activities by Wireless in Networked Society
Conclusion
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Penetration Rates of Internet in the World
27.5%36.4%
39.7%43.5%43.9%44.0%
46.4%46.8%
49.9%50.8%51.9%
53.3%54.4%54.4%55.3%
58.1%59.0%59.8%60.4%60.8%
64.7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
IrelandGermanyBermuda
AustriaFinlandJ apan
South KoreaSwitzerland
New ZealandSingapore
TaiwanCanada
AustraliaNorwayEnglandHolland
Hong Kong US
DenmarkIcelandSweden
As of March 2002Cited from NUA (http://www.nua.ie/)
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Internet Users in the World
11.9
15.7
19.3
22.2
30.2
33.0
33.7
55.9
166.1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Uses (Million)
Brazil
France
Italy
South Korea
Germany
UK
China
J apan
USA
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5Required Years for Attaining the 10% Penetration Rates ofthe Major Telecommunication Media in Japan
Investigated by “Survey of the Communication Usage Trend ” of MPT
Years
76
24
19
15
13
5
0 20 40 60 80
Telephone
Pager
Facsimile
Cellular Phones
Personal Computer
Internet
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6Penetration Rates of Mobile Phones in the world
5
19
34
41
41
45
47
52
56
59
62
64
64
69
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
China
Malaysia
USA
Germany
France
Australia
Japan
UK
Korea
Singapore
Italy
Sweden
Norway
Hong Kong
Finland
Penetration Rate (%)
as of June 2000
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7Numbers of Subscribers of Wired and Wireless phones in Japan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90.3 91.3 92.3 93.3 94.3 95.3 96.3 97.3 98.3 99.3 00.3 01.3 02.3
Year. Month
Sub
scrib
ers
(Millio
n)
Wired
Wireless(PDC+PHS)
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8Internet Mobile Phones- (internet phones/Mobile phones)-
5.6%
6.6%
6.9%
7%
7.9%
7.9%
9.4%
13.8%
16.5%
59.1%
72.3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
France
Taiwan
UK
Italy
Germany
USA
Singapore
Canada
Finland
South Korea
J apan
(as of 2001.12)
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Penetration of Broadband Access
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Su
bsc
rib
ers
(Th
ou
san
ds)
USA SouthKorea
J apan Germany UK France Singapore Malaysia
Optical FiberDSLCableothers
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Data Rates of Typical Media
6
15
70
200
600
3,500
12,000
1
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Mobile phone
PHS
IMT- 2000/ Moving
CD
ITT- 2000/ Indoor
Home Video
DVD
Studio TV
User Data Rate (x10 kbps)
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Tele-medicineTele-medicine
Online-GovernmentOnline-Government
Cyber TheaterCyber TheaterWelfareWelfare
Wireless AccessCellular
HAPS
Satellite
ITSSystem Handover System Handover
Syst
em H
ando
ver
SkyNet
System Handover
Switch
Base station
New Generation Mobile
Cyber Attac
k
Broadband Backbone Networks
Networked Society
Social Activities In Networked Society-Bridging the Digital Divide-
Online CommerceOnline Commerce
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Multimedia Information Multimedia Information
Requirement Requirement TechnologiesTechnologies
Requirements for Networked Society
Broadband Networks Broadband Networks
Anywhere, anytime Anywhere, anytime Mobile Communications Mobile Communications
Security Security Data Encryption Data Encryption
Barrier Free Barrier Free Human Interface Human Interface
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13Three Categories of Future Mobile Communications
New Generation Mobile Communications– Broadband access (High data rate)– High mobility– Several systems coexist– Seamless connections to different systems
Ad-hoc Wireless – Bluetooth– Ultra Wide Band
Information Barrier Free– Wireless support for senior and handicapped people – Easy access to the Information for social activities
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14Generations of mobile communications and their keywords and typical systems
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
Generation 1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation 4th Generation 5th Generation
Key words Analogue Digital Global Broadband Broadband
Personal World standards High mobility High mobility
Seamless roamig(IP-based)
Bariier free ?
Analogue Cellular Digital Cellular IMT-2000 4G-cellular 5G-cellular
Systems GSM, IS-54, PDC (3G-cellular)
Analogue Cordless Digital Cordless
DECT, PHS Max Data rate Max Data rate Max Data rate
2 Mbps 1 Gbps 10 Gbps?
Mobile Stellite
Iridium, Inmarsat-M
Broadband access, ITS, HAPS
Broadband Access
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15ITM-2000The 3rd generation mobile communication systems
Present IMT-2000
Indoor O ffi c eWireless LAN(11 Mbit/ s) 2.048 Mbit/ s
Outdoor toIndoor andPedestrian
PHS (64 kbit/ s) 384 kbit/ s
Vehicular Cellular (9.6 kbit s/ ) 144 kbit/ s
Satellite Inmarsat-M(6 kbit s/ ) 9.6 kbit/ s
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16FOMA by DoCoMo-IMT-2000 with W-CDMA-
Start: 2001.10 Coverage : about 70% of population (2002.3) Main services– High speed data:384 kbps– TV-phone : 64 kbps– Movies, News– i-mode
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Dark blue color indicates existing capabilities, medium blue color indicates enhancements to IMT-2000, and the lighter blue color indicates new capabilities of Systems Beyond IMT-2000
New Generation of Mobile Communication Systems- ITU-R WP8F : Illustration of Capabilities of IMT2000 and Systems Beyond -
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HDR Access
Cellular
HAPS
Satellite
ITSSystem Handover System Handover
Syste
m H
ando
ver
SkyNet
System Handover
Switch
Base Station
Broadband Fixed Backbone Networks
New Generation of Mobile Communications-New concept of system roaming among different systems-
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19Why does high speed data transmission difficult in mobile environments?
Broadband transmission is difficult– The higher the data rate, the wider the frequency band
»Fading effect becomes large.»It needs more electric power.
LargeSmall
InformationInformation
Transmission rateFrequency bandwidth
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20Why does high speed data transmission difficult in mobile environments?
Signal strength varies according to time and space.
Signal strength becomes weak dependingon propagation distance.
ReceivedpowerTransmitted power
Antenna gainAntenna gainLarge antenna→Big gain
Reflection and scatteringFading