future of civilizations.ppt

8/14/2019 FUTURE OF CIVILIZATIONS.ppt

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FUTURE OFCIVILIZATIONS:

PROSPECTS &CHALLENGES


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CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Clash_civilizations.jpg


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Samuel P. Huntington (born April

18, 1927)

A political scientist & professor at HarvardUniversity.

1960s, published Political Order in ChangingSocieties . 1993, incited a major debate following his

article, The Clash of Civilizations? published in

the journal Foreign Affairs . Expanded into a full-length book, The Clash of

Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order .


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The theory of the clash of civilizations:

1. the world will experience and witness culturalconflicts along cultural and religious lines.

conflicts between civilizations rather than nationsor ideologies.

- Faith and family , blood and belief, are what

people identify with and what they will fight anddie for.


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2. Divides the world into seven/eight majorcivilizations (based on religion, geographical

proximity and language):

Western Christendom Latin America Orthodox Islamic civilization Hindu civilization

Sinic civilization Japanese civilization Sub-Saharan Africa


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3. Sinic and Islamic civilizations - future threats tothe West.

With the challenger civilizations, Islam andChina, the West is likely to have consistentlystrained and often highly antagonistic relations (p. 184)- An Islamic -Confucian connection is emergingagainst the West.

4. Western civilization may lose its predominance iffail to recognize cultural rifts/conflicts.- Early actions need to be taken to preventconflicts from spreading into world wars.


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- The challenge for Western policy-makers is to

make sure that the West gets stronger.

5. Continued insistence towards democratizationsand interventionism will only further antagonizeother civilizations.

6. The Orthodox, Hindu and Japanese civilizationsare swing civilizations, with the potential tomove in different directions viv-a-vis the West.

7. Torn countries countries that are seeking toaffiliate with another civilization. Eg. Turkey.


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The breakup of Yugoslavia (Serbs v Bosnians)

Russian war in Chechnya War between India and Pakistan September 11 event.

The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan (2001) The U.S. invasion of Iraq (2003) Madrid Train Bombings (2005)

London Bombings (2005)

Jyllands-Posten Prophet Muhammad CartoonControversy (2006)


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Huntingtons Critics

His theory serves as the theoretical basis tolegitimize US-led West aggression againstothers.

His advocacy to take early actions to preventworld wars explains US policy of attackingcountries that are not currently a threat butcould potentially be one in the future.

Absurd because it is often easier for people ofdifferent cultures to get along because theysuspend their standard judgments.


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E.g. conflicts within the same culture: the Hutusand Tutsis, North and South Korea, China and

Taiwan, the Falkland Island Crisis.

His identified civilizations present little unity.E.g:-Vietnam (Sinic Civ) still keeps a massive army,mostly to guard against China.- The Muslim world divided along ethnic andreligious lines.- Cultural differences between Korean and Chinaare not less important than between Japan andChina.


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Reactions to Huntingtons Theory

Dialogue Among Civilizations - a theory in international relations.- Introduced by Mohammad Khatami, former

President of Iran.- As a response to Huntingtons theory.- Became famous after the United Nations (UN)

adopted a resolution to name the year 2001 as

the YEAR OF DIALOGUE AMONGCIVILIZATIONS .- There are currently several international

organizations that are directly or indirectly

pursuing the idea.


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Alliance of Civilizations - a proposed conference to overcome cultural and

social barriers between mainly the Christian andMuslim world.

- Proposed by Spanish Prime Minister, Jose LuisRodriguez Zapatero in the 59 th General Assemblyof the UN.

- Supported by Turkish Prime Minister.- A committee, the High-Level Group (HLG) for

the Alliance of Civilization (AoC) consists ofeminent policy-makers, academicians, leaders ofsocieties and media.

- 1st meeting (Nov 2005), 2 nd meeting (Feb 2006)


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Chinas Peaceful Rise

- or Chinas peaceful development .- First used by Zheng Bijian, a leader of CCP in2003.

- To reassure the nations of East Asia and UnitedStates that the rise of the PRC in military andeconomic prominence will not be a threat topeace and stability, and that other nations willbenefit from the rise of the PRC.

- Emphasizes multilateral cooperation throughinstitutions like Six Power Talks, and calls forpeaceful diplomacy over border disputes.

- Seeks to avoid confrontation with the U.S.


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Francis Fukuyama

A work entitled in The End of History . A theory of the end of history the world had

reached the end of history . Liberal democracy and Western values hadbecome the only remaining ideology for nationsin the post-Cold War period.


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Classification of Powers

Superpower Hyperpower Potential Superpowers Major power Regional power BRIC


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Map for article Superpower showing the two Cold War superpowers of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in red

and the United States of America in blue.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/fb/Superpower1.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpowerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_Warhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_Soviet_Socialist_Republicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Americahttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/fb/Superpower1.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Americahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_Soviet_Socialist_Republicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_Warhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpowerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Superpower1.png


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Super power Super from Latin superus (upper or superior) Power from Latin potere (ability to do

something

Literally means the superior ability to dosomething . A state with the first rank in the international

system and has the ability to influence events

and project power on a worldwide scale. The term in its current political meaning wascoined in The Superpowers (1943) by W. T. R.Fox.


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In early 1940s, the superpowers were the U.S,Soviet Union and Great Britain.

The immediate post-war years and during ColdWar period, the superpowers were U.S andSoviet Union.

After the disintegration of Soviet Union (1990s),the remaining superpower is U.S.


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The criteria of a Superpower:

Cultural Geographical Economic and financial Demographic Military Political or Ideological


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Hyperpower

Coined by French foreign minister, Hubert Vedrine in the 1990s.

Applied to the U.S, the sole superpower ofthe Cold War era U.S. as Hyperpower,has no equals in terms of power andinfluence.

Controversial. Unipolar world versus Multipolar world.


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Potential Superpowers

China European Union India


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The People's Republic of China is in red, the European Union in blue and theRepublic of India in green. Countries which are currently in the process of

joining the European Union or have officially started talks are colored in purple;

these are Romania , Bulgaria , Croatia , Macedonia and Turkey .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgariahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macedoniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkeyhttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e8/Superpower2.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkeyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macedoniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgariahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Indiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Unionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Republic_of_China


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CHINA
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fa/Flag_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China.svg


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EU
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/European_flag.svg


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INDIA


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Major powers

Brazil France Germany Japan Russia United Kingdom


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Map showing major powers; The Federative Republic of Brazil is in pink, theFrench Republic is in brown, the Federal Republic of Germany is in green,Japan is in gold, the Russian Federation is in red and the United Kingdom of
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federative_Republic_of_Brazilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Republichttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Republic_of_Germanyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Federationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_of_Great_Britain_and_Northern_Irelandhttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/bf/Superpower3.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_of_Great_Britain_and_Northern_Irelandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_of_Great_Britain_and_Northern_Irelandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Federationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Republic_of_Germanyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Republichttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federative_Republic_of_Brazil


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Regional powers India & Pakistan (South Asia) Argentina, Mexico & Brazil (Latin America) South Africa & Nigeria (Sub-Saharan Africa) Israel, Turkey, Iran & Egypt (Middle East) China & Japan (East Asia) Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines &

Singapore (Southeast Asia) United Kingdom, France & Germany (Europe) Russia (former Soviet bloc and Central Asia) Australia and New Zealand (Pacific)


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Muslims and World Politics

Islamic civilization lots of potential. Viewed as a threat to the West. Islam is second largest religion in the world is

growing faster numerically than any of the othermajor world religions (Christianity, Buddhism,Hinduism).

The growth rate 2.9 % annually compared to

2.3 % annually of global population growth. Higher birth rates in many Muslim countries (sixout of top-ten countries in the world with thehighest birth rates are majority Muslims)

Muslim population 1.4 billion.


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Muslims not confined to one place spread allover the world (Asia, Europe, America)

Muslims controlling major trading waterways;Malacca Strait, Mediterranean Sea, Suez canal,Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Aegean Sea.

One ideology Islam (Quran) .Muslims weaknesses :

No unity.

Sunni, Shia (Twelvers, Niners, Fivers, Ismaili,Nizari Ismaili, Mustaali Bohra, Dawoodi Bohra,Sulaimani Bohra), Wahhabis (Salafis), IbadhiMuslims (Kharijites)


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The Nation of Islam, Zikris, Ahmadiyya

(Qadiani), Al-Ahbash (Habashies)

The Druze, Alawites (Alnusairiya) Tribalism, nationalism, secularism. Lack of communications between sub-cultures.

Poverty, illiteracy 80 % of world refugees areMuslims. Dominated by foreign influence / foreign

intervention Western pressure, Western capital

& Western market. Bad images; terrorists. Lack military power; science and technology. Undemocratic governments; no syura.


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BRIC

The combination of Brazil, R ussia, I ndia andChina.

May become among the four most dominanteconomies by the year 2050 Proposed by Jim ONeil.


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Th f BRIC t i B il R i I di d Chi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:World-BRICs.pnghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b1/World-BRICs.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:World-BRICs.png

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