future of digital health care - keynote speaker for apax partners
TRANSCRIPT
DrPatrickDixonChairmanGlobalChangeLtdFellow,CentreforManagementDevelopment,LondonBusinessSchool
Digital-InspiredHealthCareoftheFuture
Expectcompe;;onbetweenpharma,biotech,medtechandinfotechinfindinganswerstomajor
condi;ons
Butmanyofthegreatesthealthinnova;onswillcomefromsynergies
betweenthesedisciplines
The future is about
The future is aboutEMOTION
Agility
Yet many trends changing more slowly
than people think
Cash growing - bank branches continue -
music, fashions, food - homes look the same, pharma R&D efficient halves every 9 years
RealityNHS digital records
Alzheimers / devices
Demographicswillbegreatestpredictorof
futuredemand
85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
1% owns 50% wealthAccess to health ?
1 billion will migrate over next 30 yearsMore spend on infrastructure in 30 years than in all human history
Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
1 million in Italy over 90 years old by 2026
Title Text• Body Level One
– Body Level Two
• Body Level Three
– Body Level Four
» Body Level Five
!23
>65%spend>65yearsold>1billion>60by2020
ChronicCondi;ons–Mul;pleNeeds
•80%ofhealthspending•88%ofallprescripFons•70%ofphysicianvisits
AlmostallcausedbypeoplegeOngolder
Expectmajorglobaldemandforpreven;onandtreatmentforcancer,heart,
brain,chronicwounds,infec;ons,infer;lity,arthri;sanddiabetes
Manyhealthcostswill
FALL
PatentExpiryondrugsalesworth$225bn2011-2016
PharmaCompanies
WILLfindnewblockbusterse.g.Alzheimers/Obesity
AlzheimerscommonestcauseofdeathinUKwomen
2010-2050demen;a
1in3babiesinNewYorkwilldevelopadult-typediabetes-cost$100bnayear
An;-Ageingwillbeaglobal
obsession-withrapidprogress
Performance
Shift in retail health care from health treatment to life enhancement
from performance to health e.g. exercise benefits
Want to look better - $200bn pa by 2020
may be
Want to think better......
•20%studentsinUS/UKusememorydrugstopassexams
OrganRepairwillberou;neusingowncells
Heart / Brain / Retina / Spine / Teeth
Rod photoreceptors (in green) within a "mini retina" derived from human induced Pluripotent Stem Cells in the lab. Courtesy of Johns Hopkins Medicine
Re;nacellsfromadultskincells
Chip connecting above or below retina
Newinsulincellsincapsulestoprotectfromimmunesystem
Repair Pancreas in diabetics
46
Competition from implanted digital devices releasing insulin
7mechanismsofageinginanimalandhumancells
•Celllossoratrophywithoutreplacement•NuclearmutaFonsandepimutaFonsthatcausecancer•MitochondrialmutaFons•Cellsenescence(deathresistance)•Junkinsidecells•Junkoutsidecells•Cross-linksbetweencells(egelasFn)
Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boost
R-alpha-lipoic acidAcetyl-L-carnitine
Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of
hardened arteries – and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales?
Low blood pressure and total body lift
Alteon
Monkeysondietlivelonger•AOer20years-80%alivev50%onnormalcalories• Lesscancer,diabetes,heartdisease,strokes,braindecay
50
Slow or no ageing is a reality
• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales
• No signs of getting old
Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) — 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise — 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam — 405 years
Some animals do not “age” in normal way
Less than £1000 per person
•Software•Mathematics•Ultra-fast processing•Robotics•Biochemistry•Genetics• Immunology
$1,000genome-IlluminaHiSeqXTenSequencer
Ottawa Hospital, Ontario - 3000 ipads Mayo Clinic - 2000 ipads
400,000deathsayearinAmericafromavoidablemedicalerrors
Whyarewecollec;ngdata-forpa;entuseortokeepsomeoneoutofhospital?
Genescreeningwilldominatediseasepreven;onand
treatment
Confidential
HSV1causescoldsores.WhenengineeredasSeprehvir(HSV-1716),itisharmlesstohealthy@ssue.
•Oncolytic viruses • Infect and kill cancer tumour cells •No damage to healthy tissue •Evidence of impact in clinical trials •Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells
Viruses to cure cancer
FutureofHospitals
Beferdigitalimagingandanaly;cswill
transformdiagnosisandtreatment
Digitallyenhancedmicro-surgerywillalsotransformhospitalcare
• $75bn endoscopy market by 2022
• 125,000 stents or carotid surgery a year in US
Lengthofhospitalstay
willfall10-20%by2025
RapiddischargeandsupportPreven;onofadmissions
HomeCarewillgrowveryfastespeciallyforoldpeople
Growthcommunitynursing
Enhancedcareassistantss
250millionwearabledevicesby2023
$20bnto$70bnby2025
WearableHealthDeviceswillbealmost
universal
• Diabetes, congestive heart failure, obstructive pulmonary
• 2.2 million at home
• > $22bn by 2015
•Mobile telephony
Home Tele-Monitoring
16yearsofcontracep;vesonsinglechip
Cough,respira;on,wheeze,heartrate
Automated Device for Asthma Management, or ADAM, by Health Care Originals
Mostpa;entswillhavemoredatathantheirphysiciansabouttheircondi;on
e.g.DrEd.com50,000paidordersamonth
3000diagnosesadayinUKcomparedto30,000toNHShelplineMoreaccuratethanDoctorsorNurses
50,000videoconsulta;ons
Impactonmedicaltraining
85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
1% owns 50% wealthAccess to health ?
Inves;nginDigitalforaHealthierWholeWorld
Expectrapidinnova;onaswellasmul;plesynergies,withintegra;onintoeveryaspectofhealthcare
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change LtdFellow, Centre for Management Development, London Business School
Future of MedTechImpact of digital innovation on MedTech and Health Care