future of higher education oecd experience on trends and scenarios
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Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios. Bucharest – 31 October 2009 Kiira Kärkkäinen OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI). Outline . OECD Process Selected Trends OECD Scenarios. Future of Higher Education. OECD Process. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Future of Higher Education
OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios
Bucharest – 31 October 2009
Kiira KärkkäinenOECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)
Outline
OECD Process
Selected Trends
OECD Scenarios
Future of Higher EducationOECD Process
OECD Process
OECD Directorate for Education
OECD Directorat
e for Education
Indicators and
Analysis
Management of
Higher Education
Education & Training
Policy
Centre for Educational Research
and Innovation
OECD Process
Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)
Aims to inform long-term educational policy development and making through…
Forward-looking research
Educational innovation
International exchanges
OECD Process
Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)
Although long term thinking in education is important, educational policy making is often done with a short term
perspective.
Two parallel forward looking CERI projects– Schooling for Tomorrow– Future of Higher Education – University
Futures
Institutional synergies
OECD Process
University Futures
Objectives– Feed strategic reflection on major questions– Highlight past developments and recent
changes– Underline future opportunities and challenges
International standpoint as a special feature
OECD Process
University Futures
Two main types of activity1. Thematic trends analysis2. Dialogue with stakeholders and experts
Basis for future scenarios
OECD Process
University Futures –Trends Analysis
From 6 initial themes…– Demography– Technology– Globalisation – market and quasi-
market forces– Academic research– Labour market
… to 3 final reports…– Demography – Globalisation– Technology
… and 3 cross-cutting themes– market and quasi-
market forces– Academic research– Labour market
OECD Process
University Futures – Dialogue
Three types of meetings– Public conferences– Stakeholder meetings– Small senior-level
expert meetings
Some specific outputs – Overall, 12 events in 8
countries since 2003 – Discussions at the
Ministerial level in 2006
– Final international conference in 2008
OECD Process
University Futures – Scenarios
Scenarios not seen as predictions of the future….
… but as a tool to combine several trends and think about future options in a
creative and structured manner.
Where are we going?
Where should we go and why?
How could we get there?
OECD Process
Some Lessons Learned
Stakeholder and expert dialogue…
… brings in new and confirms old ideas…
…reflects and contrasts different points of view…
… develops common understanding on key issues…
…and adds political weight on scenarios.
OECD Process
Some Lessons Learned
International comparative trends…
…help understand dynamics of change in a broader scale…
…support neutrality of analysis…
…but stay in general level…
…and are subject to path dependency.
OECD Process
Some Lessons Learned
Institutional synergies…
…help with process and method…
…support data collection and use.
Future of Higher Education
Selected Trends
Selected Trends
Higher Education to 2030 Series
Forthcoming
• Volume 2: Globalisation
• Volume 3: Technology• Volume 4: Scenarios
Selected Trends
Globalisation and Higher Education Higher education in globalised
world– Highly skilled workforce – Research and innovation capacity– Cross-cultural encounters
Global influences on higher education– Mobile students, faculty and
institutions– International financing– Cross-border flows of idea
Simultaneous forces of competition and collaboration
Selected Trends
Increase in the Number of Foreign Students Worldwide and Projections
Source: OECD (2009)
Selected TrendsNumber of National Students Abroad and Mobility Rate to Foreign Countries in 2007
Source: OECD (2009)
Selected Trends
Destination of Foreign Students in the OECD Area (%) and Changes (% points)
Source: OECD (2009)
Selected Trends
Breakdown of Foreign Students (%) and Changes (% points)
Source: OECD (2009)
Selected Trends
Share of World Citations of Science and Engineering Articles
Source: OECD (2009)
Selected TrendsPercentage of Worldwide Science and
Engineering Articles Coauthored Domesticallyand Internationally
Source: OECD (2009)
Future of Higher EducationOECD Scenarios
OECDScenarios
Four future scenarios by CERI
Open networking
Serving local communities
New public responsibility
Higher education, Inc.
OECD Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Open NetworkingMain features
• International collaboration and networking leading to harmonization of systems
• New approaches to teaching• English as lingua franca• International collaborative
research, even if within the persistent hierarchy of institutions
• Free and open knowledge exchange and access to research
Related developments
• Bologna Process in Europe• International academic
partnerships and consortia• Increased mobility• Cheap and fast
communication facilitated by the Internet
• Developing culture of openness
OECD Scenarios
Scenario 2 – Serving Local CommunitiesFeatures
• Institutions mainly focused on national, regional and/or local missions
• Mainly publicly funded and administered systems
• Streghtened financial support from local industry and needs-based lifelong learning
• Academics are trusted professionals with teaching as their central objective
• Convergence between universities and polytechnics
Related developments
• Scepticism regarding globalisation, even anti-globalisation movements
• Emergence of geo-strategic concerns
• Interest in preservation of national culture and fostering social cohesion
• Interest in regional role of higher education
OECD Scenarios
Scenario 3 – New Public ResponsibilityFeatures
• Autonomy of institutions combined with greater use of ‘new public management’ tools
• Significant share of public funding with increasingly mixed resource base
• Strong public accountability, but also more private reward systems
• Marked diversification of institutions
• String national competition for public research funding
Related developments
• General quest for accountability, transparency, efficiency and effectiveness in public management
• Increasing institutional autonomy in many countries
• Cost-sharing and raising tuition fees increasingly under debate
• Increasingly competitive research funding
OECD Scenarios
Scenario 4 – Higher Education Inc.Features
• Institutions competing globally on a commercial basis
• Public funding exclusively to non-commercially viable disciplines
• Strong competition for students with English as a key language of study
• Disconnection of research and teaching according to competitive advantage
• Concentration of research with worldwide competition for funding
Related developments
• Trade in higher education and inclusion of it in trade negotiations
• Increasing international mobility of students and cross-border higher education
• Increase of cross-border funding of research and private research activities
Serving Local Communities
International
National
MarketDemand-driven
AdministrationSupply-driven
Open Networking Higher Education Inc.
New Public Responsibility
OECD Scenarios
Four Scenarios for Higher Education Systems