future of internet 2010 - aaas paper

8/14/2019 Future of Internet 2010 - AAAS Paper

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1

TheFutureoftheInternet

Expertsand

stakeholders

say

the

Internet

will

enhance

our

intelligencenotmakeusstupid.Itwillalsochangethefunctionsof

readingandwritingandbebuiltaroundstillunanticipatedgadgetry

andapplications.Thebattleovercontroloftheinternetwillrageon

anddebatesaboutonlineanonymitywillpersist.

JannaQuitneyAnderson,ElonUniversity

LeeRainie,PewInternet&AmericanLifeProject

February19,2010

PewResearchCentersInternet&AmericanLifeProject

AninitiativeofthePewResearchCenter

1615LSt.,NWSuite700

Washington,D.C.20036

2024194500|pewinternet.org

ThispublicationispartofaPewResearchCenterseriesthatcapturespeoplesexpectationsforthe

futureoftheInternet,intheprocesspresentingasnapshotofcurrentattitudes.Findoutmoreat:

http://pewinternet.org/topics/Futureoftheinternet.aspxandhttp://imaginingtheinternet.org.
http://pewinternet.org/http://pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://imaginingtheinternet.org/http://imaginingtheinternet.org/http://pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://pewinternet.org/


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2

Overview

Inanonlinesurveyof895technologystakeholdersandcriticsexpectationsofsocial,political

andeconomicchangeby2020,fieldedbythePewResearchCentersInternet&AmericanLife

Projectand

Elon

Universitys

Imagining

the

Internet

Center:

Googlewontmakeusstupid:76%oftheseexpertsagreedwiththestatement,By2020,peoplesuseoftheInternethasenhancedhumanintelligence;aspeopleare

allowedunprecedentedaccesstomoreinformationtheybecomesmarterandmake

betterchoices.NicholasCarrwaswrong:Googledoesnotmakeusstupid.Someofthe

bestanswersareinPart1ofthisreport.

Reading,writing,andtherenderingofknowledgewillbeimproved:65%agreedwiththestatementby2020itwillbeclearthattheInternethasenhancedandimproved

reading,writingandtherenderingofknowledge.Still,32%oftherespondents

expressedconcernsthatby2020itwillbeclearthattheInternethasdiminishedand

endangeredreading,writingandtherenderingofknowledge.Someofthebest

answersareinPart2ofthisreport.

Innovationwillcontinuetocatchusbysurprise:80%oftheexpertsagreedthatthehotgadgetsandapplicationsthatwillcapturetheimaginationsofusersin2020will

oftencomeoutoftheblue.SomeofthebestanswersareinPart3ofthisreport.

Respondentshopeinformationwillflowrelativelyfreelyonline,thoughtherewillbeflashpointsovercontroloftheinternet.ConcernsovercontroloftheInternetwere

expressedinanswerstoaquestionabouttheendtoendprinciple.61%respondedthat

theInternetwillremainasitsfoundersenvisioned,howevermanywhoagreedwiththe

statementthatmostdisagreementsoverthewayinformationflowsonlinewillbe

resolvedin

favor

of

aminimum

number

of

restrictions

also

noted

that

their

response

wasahopeandnotnecessarilytheirtrueexpectation.33%chosetoagreewiththe

statementthattheInternetwillmostlybecomeatechnologywhereintermediary

institutionsthatcontrolthearchitectureandcontentwillbesuccessfulingainingthe

righttomanageinformationandthemethodbywhichpeopleaccessit.Someofthe

bestanswersareinPart4ofthisreport.

Anonymousonlineactivitywillbechallenged,thoughamodestmajoritystillthinkitwillpossiblein2020:Theremoreofasplitverdictamongtheexpertrespondentsabout

thefateononlineanonymity.Some55%agreedthatInternetuserswillstillbeableto

communicateanonymously,while41%agreedthatby2020anonymousonlineactivity

is

sharply

curtailed.


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SurveyMethod:Tensionpairsweredesignedtoprovokedetailedelaborations

ThisisthefourthFutureoftheInternetsurveyconductedbythePewInternet&American

LifeProjectandElonUniversitysImaginingtheInternetCenter.Thesurveysareconducted

throughonlinequestionnairestowhichaselectedgroupofexpertsandthehighlyengaged

Internetpublic

have

been

invited

to

respond.

The

surveys

present

potential

future

scenarios

to

whichrespondentsreactwiththeirexpectationsbasedoncurrentknowledgeandattitudes.

Youcanviewdetailedresultsfromthefirstthreesurveyshere:

http://www.pewinternet.org/topics/Futureoftheinternet.aspxandhttp://www.elon.edu/e

web/predictions/expertsurveys/default.xhtml.ExpandedresultsarepublishedintheFutureof

theInternetseriespublishedbyCambriaPress.

RespondentstotheFutureoftheInternetIVsurvey,fieldedfromDec.2,2009toJan.11,2010,

wereaskedtoconsiderthefutureoftheInternetconnectedworldbetweennowand2020and

thelikelyinnovationthatwilloccur.Theywereaskedtoassess10differenttensionpairs

each

pair

offering

two

different

2020

scenarios

with

the

same

overall

theme

and

opposite

outcomesandtheywereaskedtoselecttheonemostlikelychoiceoftwostatements.The

tensionpairsandtheiralternativeoutcomeswereconstructedtoreflectpreviousstatements

aboutthelikelyevolutionoftheInternet.TheywerereviewedandeditedbythePewInternet

AdvisoryBoard.

Pleasenotethatthissurveyisprimarilyfocusedonelicitingfocusedobservationsonthelikely

impactandinfluenceoftheInternetnotontherespondentschoicesfromthepairsof

predictivestatements.Manytimeswhenrespondentsvotedforonescenariooveranother,

theyrespondedintheirelaborationthatbothoutcomesarelikelytoadegreeorthatan

outcomenotofferedwouldbetheirtruechoice.Surveyparticipantswereinformedthatitis

likelyyou

will

struggle

with

most

or

all

of

the

choices

and

some

may

be

impossible

to

decide;

wehopethatwillinspireyoutowriteresponsesthatwillexplainyouranswerandilluminate

importantissues.

Expertswerelocatedintwoways.First,severalthousandwereidentifiedinanextensivecanvassing

of scholarly, government, andbusinessdocuments from theperiod 19901995 to seewhohad

venturedpredictionsaboutthefutureimpactoftheInternet.Severalhundredofthemparticipated

in the first three surveys conducted by Pew Internet and Elon University, and they were

recontactedforthissurvey.Second,expertparticipantswerehandpickedduetotheirpositionsas

stakeholdersinthedevelopmentoftheInternet.

Herearesomeoftherespondents:ClayShirky,EstherDyson,DocSearls,NicholasCarr,Susan

Crawford,DavidClark,JamaisCascio,PeterNorvig,CraigNewmark,HalVarian,HowardRheingold,

AndreasKluth,JeffJarvis,AndyOram,DavidSifry,MarcRotenberg,JohnPike,AndrewNachison,

AnthonyTownsend,EthanZuckerman,StephenDownes,RebeccaMacKinnon,JimWarren,Sandra

Brahman,SethFinkelstein,JerryBerman,andStewartBaker.
http://www.pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://www.pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://www.pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://www.pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://www.pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://www.pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://www.pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspxhttp://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/default.xhtmlhttp://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/default.xhtmlhttp://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/default.xhtmlhttp://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/default.xhtmlhttp://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/expertsurveys/default.xhtmlhttp://www.pewinternet.org/topics/Future-of-the-internet.aspx


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Herearesomeoftheinstitutionsinwhichrespondentsworkorhaveaffiliations:Google,Microsoft.

CiscoSystems,Yahoo!,Intel,IBM,HewlettPackard,EricssonResearch,Nokia,NewYorkTimes,

OReillyMedia,ThomsonReuters,Wiredmagazine,TheEconomistmagazine,NBC,RAND

Corporation,VerizonCommunications,LindenLab,InstitutefortheFuture,BritishTelecom,Qwest

Communications,Raytheon,Adobe,Meetup,Craigslist,Ask.com,Intuit,MITRECorporation

DepartmentofDefense,DepartmentofState,FederalCommunicationsCommission,Department

ofHealthandHumanServices,CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention,SocialSecurity

Administration,GeneralServicesAdministration,BritishOfCom,WorldWideWebConsortium,

NationalGeographicSociety,BentonFoundation,LinuxFoundation,AssociationofInternet

Researchers,Internet2,InternetSociety,SantaFeInstitute,YankeeGroup

HarvardUniversity,MIT,YaleUniversity,GeorgetownUniversity,OxfordInternetInstitute,

PrincetonUniversity,CarnegieMellonUniversity,UniversityofPennsylvania,Universityof

CaliforniaBerkeley,ColumbiaUniversity,UniversityofSouthernCalifornia,CornellUniversity,

UniversityofNorthCarolina,PurdueUniversity,DukeUniversity,SyracuseUniversity,NewYork

University,Northwestern

University,

Ohio

University

,Georgia

Institute

of

Technology,

Florida

State

University,UniversityofKentucky,UniversityofTexas,UniversityofMaryland,University of

Kansas,UniversityofIllinois,BostonCollege,UniversityofTulsa,UniversityofMinnesota,Arizona

State,MichiganStateUniversity,UniversityofCaliforniaIrvine,GeorgeMasonUniversity,University

ofUtah,BallStateUniversity,BaylorUniversity,UniversityofMassachusettsAmberst,Universityof

Georgia,WilliamsCollege,andUniversityofFlorida.

While many respondents are at the pinnacle of Internet leadership, some of the survey

respondentsareworking inthetrenchesofbuildingtheWeb.Mostofthepeople inthis latter

segmentofresponderscametothesurveybyinvitationbecausetheyareontheemaillistofthe

Pew

Internet

&

American

Life

Project

or

are

otherwise

known

to

the

Project.

They

are

not

necessarilyopinionleadersfortheirindustriesorwellknownfuturists,butitisstrikinghowmuch

theirviewsweredistributed inways thatparalleled thosewhoarecelebrated in the technology

field.

Awiderangeofopinion fromexperts,organizations,and interested institutionswassought,this

surveyshouldnotbetakenasarepresentativecanvassingofInternetexperts.Bydesign,thissurvey

wasanoptin,selfselectingeffort.Thatprocessdoesnotyieldarandom,representativesample.

Thequantitative results arebasedonanonrandomonline sampleof895 Internetexpertsand

otherInternetusers,recruitedbyemailinvitation,TwitterorFacebook.Sincethedataarebasedon

anonrandomsample,amarginoferrorcannotbecomputed,andresultsarenotprojectableto

anypopulationotherthantherespondentsinthissample.

ManyoftherespondentsareInternetveterans50%havebeenusingtheInternetsince1992

orearlier,with11percentactivelyinvolvedonlinesince1982orearlier.Whenaskedfortheir

primaryareaofInternetinterest,15%ofthesurveyparticipantsidentifiedthemselvesas

researchscientists;14%asbusinessleadersorentrepreneurs;12%asconsultantsorfuturists,

12%asauthors,editorsorjournalists;9%astechnologydevelopersoradministrators;7%as

advocatesoractivistusers;3%aspioneersororiginators;2%aslegislators,politiciansor


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lawyers;and25percentspecifiedtheirprimaryareaofinterestasother.Resultsaredivided

intoacolumnforinvitedexpertsonlyandacolumnthatcombinesexpertswithgeneralpublic.

Theanswerstheserespondentsgavetothequestionsaregivenintwocolumns.Thefirst

columncoverstheanswersof371longtimeexpertswhohaveregularlyparticipatedinthese

surveys.The

second

column

covers

the

answers

of

all

the

respondents,

including

the

524

who

wererecruitedbyotherexpertsorbytheirassociationwiththePewInternetProject.

Interestingly,thereisnotgreatvariancebetweenthesmallerandbiggerpoolsofrespondents.


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Part1:AreviewofresponsestoatensionpairaboutwhetherGooglewillmake

peoplestupid.

EXPERT

RESPONSES

N=371

TOTAL

SAMPLE

N=895

% 81 76 By2020,peoplesuseoftheInternethasenhancedhuman

intelligence;aspeopleareallowedunprecedentedaccessto

moreinformation,theybecomesmarterandmakebetter

choices.NicholasCarrwaswrong:Googledoesnotmakeus

stupid(http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200807/google).

16 21 By2020,peoplesuseoftheInternethasnotenhancedhuman

intelligenceanditcouldevenbeloweringtheIQsofmost

peoplewhouseitalot.NicholasCarrwasright:Googlemakes

usstupid.

4 2 Didnotrespond

EminenttechscholarandanalystNicholasCarrwroteaprovocativecoverstoryfortheAtlantic

Monthlymagazineinthesummerof2008withthecoverline:IsGoogleMakingusStupid?1

Hearguedthattheeaseofonlinesearchinganddistractionsofbrowsingthroughthewebwere

possiblylimitinghiscapacitytoconcentrate.ImnotthinkingthewayIusedto,hewrote,in

partbecauseheisbecomingaskimming,browsingreader,ratherthanadeepandengaged

reader. Thekindofdeepreadingthatasequenceofprintedpagespromotesisvaluablenot

justfortheknowledgeweacquirefromtheauthorswordsbutfortheintellectualvibrations

thosewords

set

off

within

our

own

minds.

In

the

quiet

spaces

opened

up

by

the

sustained,

undistractedreadingofabook,orbyanyotheractofcontemplation,forthatmatter,wemake

ourownassociations,drawourowninferencesandanalogies,fosterourownideas.Ifwelose

thosequietspaces,orfillthemupwithcontent,wewillsacrificesomethingimportantnot

onlyinourselvesbutinourculture.

JamaisCascio,anaffiliateattheInstitutefortheFutureandseniorfellowattheInstitutefor

EthicsandEmergingTechnologies,challengedCarrinasubsequentarticleintheAtlantic

Monthly(http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200907/intelligence).Casciomadethecasethatthe

arrayofproblemsfacinghumanity theendofthefossilfuelera,thefragilityoftheglobal

foodweb,growingpopulationdensity,andthespreadofpandemics,amongotherswillforce

usto

get

smarter

ifwe

are

to

survive.

Most

people

dont

realize

that

this

process

is

already

underway,hewrote.Infact,itshappeningallaroundus,acrossthefullspectrumofhowwe

understandintelligence.ItsvisibleinthehivemindoftheInternet,inthepowerfultoolsfor

simulationandvisualizationthatarejumpstartingnewscientificdisciplines,andinthe

developmentofdrugsthatsomepeople(myselfincluded)havediscoveredletthemstudy

1Note:Previously,thissentencehadincorrectlystatedthatthearticlewaspublishedinthesummerof2009.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200807/googlehttp://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200907/intelligencehttp://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200907/intelligencehttp://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200807/google


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harder,focusbetter,andstayawakelongerwithfullclarity.Hearguedthatwhilethe

proliferationoftechnologyandmediacanchallengehumanscapacitytoconcentratethere

weresignsthatwearedevelopingfluidintelligencetheabilitytofindmeaninginconfusion

andsolvenewproblems,independentofacquiredknowledge.Healsoexpressedhopethat

techieswilldeveloptoolstohelppeoplefindandassessinformationsmartly.

Withthatasbackdrop,respondentswereaskedtoexplaintheiranswertothetensionpair

statementsandshareyourviewoftheInternetsinfluenceonthefutureofhumanintelligence

in2020whatislikelytostaythesameandwhatwillbedifferentinthewayhumanintellect

evolves?Whatfollowsisaselectionofthehundredsofwrittenelaborationsandsomeofthe

recurringthemesinthoseanswers:

NicholasCarrandGooglestaffershavetheirsay

Ifeelcompelledtoagreewithmyself.ButIwouldaddthattheNet'seffectonourintellectualliveswillnotbemeasuredsimplybyaverageIQscores.WhattheNetdoes

isshifttheemphasisofourintelligence,awayfromwhatmightbecalledameditative

orcontemplativeintelligenceandmoretowardwhatmightbecalledautilitarian

intelligence.Thepriceofzippingamonglotsofbitsofinformationisalossofdepthin

ourthinking.NicholasCarr

Myconclusionisthatwhentheonlyinformationonatopicisahandfulofessaysorbooks,thebeststrategyistoreadtheseworkswithtotalconcentration. Butwhenyou

haveaccesstothousandsofarticles,blogs,videos,andpeoplewithexpertiseonthe

topic,agoodstrategyistoskimfirsttogetanoverview.Skimmingandconcentrating

canandshouldcoexist.IwouldalsoliketosaythatCarrhasitmostlybackwardswhen

hesaysthatGoogleisbuiltontheprinciplesofTaylorism[theinstitutionoftime

managementand

worker

activity

standards

in

industrial

settings].

Taylorism

shifts

responsibilityfromworkertomanagement,institutesastandardmethodforeachjob,

andselectsworkerswithskillsuniqueforaspecificjob.Googledoestheopposite,

shiftingresponsibilityfrommanagementtotheworker,encouragingcreativityineach

job,andencouragingworkerstoshiftamongmanydifferentrolesintheircareer.Carr

isofcourserightthatGooglethrivesonunderstandingdata.Butmakingsenseofdata

(bothforGoogleinternallyandforitsusers)isnotlikebuildingthesameartifactover

andoveronanassemblyline;ratheritrequirescreativity,amixofbroadanddeep

knowledge,andahostofconnectionstootherpeople.ThatiswhatGoogleistryingto

facilitate.PeterNorvig,GoogleResearchDirector

Google

will

make

us

more

informed.

The

smartest

person

in

the

world

could

well

be

behindaplowinChinaorIndia. Providinguniversalaccesstoinformationwillallow

suchpeopletorealizetheirfullpotential,providingbenefitstotheentireworld.Hal

Varian,Google,chiefeconomist

Theresourcesoftheinternetandsearchengineswillshiftcognitivecapacities.Wewont

havetorememberasmuch,butwellhavetothinkharderandhavebettercriticalthinking


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andanalyticalskills.Lesstimedevotedtomemorizationgivespeoplemoretimetomaster

thosenewskills.

Googleallowsustobemorecreativeinapproachingproblemsandmoreintegrativeinourthinking.Wespendlesstimetryingtorecallandmoretimegeneratingsolutions.

PaulJones,

ibiblio,

University

of

North

Carolina

Chapel

Hill

Googlewillmakeusstupidandintelligentatthesametime.Inthefuture,wewillliveinatransparent3Dmobilemediacloudthatsurroundsuseverywhere.Inthiscloud,we

willuseintelligentmachines,towhomwedelegatebothsimpleandcomplextasks.

Therefore,wewillloosetheskillsweneededintheolddays(e.g.,readingpapermaps

whiledrivingacar).Butwewillgaintheskilltomakebetterchoices(e.g.,knowingto

choosethemortgagethatisbestforyouinsteadofbestforthebank).Allinall,Ithink

thegainsoutweighthelosses. MarcelBullinga,DutchFuturistatfuturecheck.com

IthinkthatcertaintaskswillbeoffloadedtoGoogleorotherInternetservicesratherthanperformedinthemind,especiallyrememberingminordetails.Butreally,thata

rolethatpaperhastakenovermanycenturies:didGutenbergmakeusstupid?Onthe

otherhand,theInternetislikelytobefrontandcentreinanydevelopmentsrelatedto

improvementsinneuroscienceandhumancognitionresearch.DeanBubley,

wirelessindustryconsultant

Whattheinternet(heresubsumedtongueincheekunderGoogle)doesistosupportSOMEpartsofhumanintelligence,suchasanalysis,byREPLACINGotherparts

suchasmemory.Thus,peoplewillbemoreintelligentabout,say,thelogisticsof

movingaroundageographybecauseGooglewillrememberthefactsand

relationshipsofvariouslocationsontheirbehalf.Peoplewillbebetterabletocompare

therevolutionsof1848and1789becauseGooglewillremindthemofallthedetails

asneeded.Thisisthecontinuationadinfinitumoftheprocesslaunchedbyabacuses

andcalculators:

we

have

become

more

stupid

by

losing

our

arithmetic

skills

but

more

intelligentatevaluatingnumbers.AndreasKluth,writer,Economistmagazine

It'samistaketotreatintelligenceasanundifferentiatedwhole.Nodoubtwewillbecomeworseatdoingsomethings('morestupid')requiringrotememoryof

informationthatisnowavailablethoughGoogle.Butwiththiscapacityfreed,wemay

(andprobablywill)becapableofmoreadvancedintegrationandevaluationof

information('moreintelligent').StephenDownes,NationalResearchCouncil,

Canada

Thenewlearningsystem,moreinformalperhapsthanformal,willeventuallywinsincewemustusetechnologytocauseeveryonetolearnmore,moreeconomicallyand

faster

if

everyone

is

to

be

economically

productive

and

prosperous.

Maintaining

the

statusquowillonlycontinuetheexistingwin/losesocietythatwehavewiththosewho

canlearninpresentschoolstructuredoingok,whilemoreandmorestudentsdropout,

learnless,andfailtofindaproductivenicheinthefuture.EdLyell,formermember

oftheColoradoStateBoardofEducationandTelecommunicationAdvisoryCommission

Thequestionisflawed:Googlewillmakeintelligencedifferent.AsCarrhimselfsuggests,Platoarguedthatreadingandwritingwouldmakeusstupid,andfromthe

perspectiveofapreliterate,hewascorrect.Holdinginyourheadinformationthatis


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easilydiscoverableonGooglewillnolongerbeamarkofintelligence,butasideshow

act.Beingabletoquicklyandeffectivelydiscoverinformationandsolveproblems,

ratherthandoitinyourhead,willbethemetricweuse.AlexHalavais,vice

president,AssociationofInternetResearchers

WhatGoogledoesdoissimplytoenableustoshiftcertaintaskstothenetwork weno

longer

need

to

rote

learn

certain

seldomly

used

facts

(the

periodic

table,

the

post

codeofBallarat)ifthey'reonlyasearchaway,forexample.That'sproblematic,of

course weputanawfulamountoftrustinplacessuchasWikipediawheresuch

informationisstored,andinsearchengineslikeGooglethroughwhichweretrieveit

butitdoesn'tmakeusstupid,anymorethanhavingaccesstoalibrary(orinfact,

accesstowriting)makesusstupid.Thatsaid,Idon'tknowthatthereverseistrue,

either:GoogleandtheNetalsodon'tautomaticallymakeussmarter.By2020,wewill

haveevenmoreaccesstoevenmoreinformation,usingevenmoresophisticated

searchandretrievaltools buthowsmartlywecanmakeuseofthispotentialdepends

onwhetherourmedialiteraciesandcapacitieshavecaughtup,too.AxelBruns,

AssociateProfessor,QueenslandUniversityofTechnology

MyabilitytodomentalarithmeticisworsethanmygrandfathersbecauseIgrewupinanerawithpervasivepersonalcalculators. Iamnotstupidcomparedtomy

grandfather,butIbelievethedevelopmentofmybrainhasbeenchangedbythe

availabilityoftechnology. Thesamewillhappen(orishappening)asaresultofthe

Googleizationofknowledge. Peoplearebecomingusedtobitesizedchunksof

informationthatarecompiledandsortedbyanalgorithm. Thismustbehavingan

impactonourbrains,butitistoosimplistictosaythatwearebecomingstupidasa

resultofGoogle.RobertAcklund,AustralianNationalUniversity

Webecomeadeptatusingusefultools,andhenceperfectnewskills. Otherskillsmaydiminish.IagreewithCarrthatwemayontheaveragebecomelesspatient,lesswilling

toread

through

along,

linear

text,

but

we

may

also

become

more

adept

at

dealing

with

multiplefactors.NotethatIsaidlesspatient,whichisnotthesameaslowerIQ. I

suspectthatemotionalandpersonalitychangeswillprobablymoremarkedthan

intelligencechanges.LarryPress,CaliforniaStateUniversity,DominguzHills

Technologyisnttheproblemhere.Itispeoplesinherentcharactertraits.Theinternetand

searchenginesjustenablepeopletobemoreofwhattheyalreadyare.Iftheyaremotivated

tolearnandshrewd,theywillusenewtoolstoexploreinexcitingnewways.Iftheyarelazy

orincapableofconcentrating,theywillfindnewwaystobedistractedandgoofoff.

The

question

is

all

about

people's

choices.

If

we

value

introspection

as

a

road

to

insight,ifwebelievethatlongexperiencewithissuescontributestogoodjudgmenton

thoseissues,ifwe(inshort)wantknowledgethatsearchenginesdon'tgiveus,we'll

maintainourdepthofthinkingandGooglewillonlyenhanceit.Thereisatrend,of

course,towardinstantanalysisandkneejerkresponsestoeventsthatdegradesalotof

writinganddiscussion.Wecan'tblamesearchenginesforthat.Whatsearchengines

doisprovidemoreinformation,whichwecanuseeithertobecomedilettantes(Carr's

worry)ortobolsterourknowledgearoundtheedgesanddofactcheckingwhilewe


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10

relymostlyoninformationwe'vegainedinmorerobustwaysforourcoreanalyses.

Googlefreesthetimeweusedtospendpullingtogetherthelast10%offactsweneed

tocompleteourresearch.IreadCarr'sarticlewhenTheAtlanticfirstpublishedit,butI

usedawebsearchtopullitbackupandreviewitbeforewritingthisresponse.Google

ismyfriend.AndyOram,editorandblogger,OReillyMedia

Forpeoplewhoarereadersandwhoarewillingtoexplorenewsourcesandnewarguments,wecanonlybemadebetterbythekindsofsearcheswewillbeabletodo.

Ofcourse,thekindofGoogledfuturethatIamconcernedaboutistheoneinwhichmy

everydesireisanticipated,andmyeveryfearavoidedbymyguardianGoogle.Even

then,Imightnotbestupid,justnotterriblyinteresting.OscarGandy,emeritus

professor,UniversityofPennsylvania

Idon'tthinkhavingaccesstoinformationcanevermakeanyonestupider. Idon'tthinkanadult'sIQcanbeinfluencedmucheitherwaybyreadinganythingandIwould

guessthatsmartpeoplewillusetheInternetforsmartthingsandstupidpeoplewilluse

itforstupidthingsinthesamewaythatsmartpeoplereadliteratureandstupidpeople

readcrapfiction. Onthewhole,havingeasyaccesstomoreinformationwillmake

societyasagroupsmarterthough.SandraKelly,marketresearcher,3MCorporation

Thestoryofhumankindisthatofworksubstitutionandhumanenhancement.TheNeolithicrevolutionbroughtthesubstitutionofsomehumanphysicalworkbyanimal

work.TheIndustrialrevolutionbroughtmoresubstitutionofhumanphysicalworkby

machinework.TheDigitalrevolutionisimplyingasignificantsubstitutionofhuman

brainworkbycomputersandICTsingeneral.Wheneverasubstitutionhastakenplace,

menhavebeenabletofocusonmorequalitativetasks,enteringavirtuouscycle:the

morequalitativethetasks,themorehisintelligencedevelops;andthemoreintelligent

hegets,morequalitativetaskshecanperform.Asobesitymightbethesideeffectof

physicalworksubstitutionmymachines,mentallazinesscanbecomethewatermarkof

mentalwork

substitution

by

computers,

thus

having

anegative

effect

instead

of

a

positiveone.IsmaelPeaLopez,lecturerattheOpenUniversityofCatalonia,School

ofLawandPoliticalScience

Well,ofcourse,itdependsonwhatonemeansbystupid IimaginethatGoogle,anditsasyetunimaginablenewfeaturesandcapabilitieswillbothimproveand

decreasesomeofourhumancapabilities. Certainlyit'smucheasiertofindoutstuff,

includinghistorical,accurate,andtruestuff,aswellasentertaining,ironic,andcreative

stuff. It'salsomakingsomefolkslazier,lessconcernedaboutinvestinginthetimeand

energytoarriveatconclusions,etc.RonRice,UniversityofCalifornia,SantaBarbara

Nick[Carr]says,OnceIwasascubadiverintheseaofwords.NowIzipalongthesurface

like

a

guy

on

a

Jet

Ski.

Besides

finding

that

a

little

hard

to

believe

(I

know

Nick

tobeadeepdiver,still),thereisnothingaboutGoogle,ortheNet,tokeepanyone

fromdivingandtodepthsthatwerenotreachablebeforetheNetcamealong.Doc

Searls,coauthorofTheCluetrainManifesto

Googleisn'tmakingusstupid butitismakingmanyofusintellectuallylazy.Thishasalreadybecomeabigprobleminuniversityclassrooms.Formyundergradmajorsin

CommunicationStudies,Googlemaytakeoverthehardworkinvolvedinfindinggood

sourcematerialforwrittenassignments.Unlesspushedintherightdirection,students


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11

willoptforthetop10or15hitsastheirresearchstrategy.Andit'sthestudentsmostin

needofresearchtrainingwhoaretheleastlikelytoavailthemselvesofmore

sophisticatedtoolslikeGoogleScholar.Likeothermajortechnologies,Google'ssearch

functionalitywon'tpushthehumanintellectinonepredetermineddirection.Itwill

reinforcecertaindispositionsintheenduser:strongerintellectswilluseGoogleasa

creativetool,

while

others

will

let

Google

do

the

thinking

for

them.

David

Ellis,

York

University,Toronto

ItsnotGooglesfaultifuserscreatestupidqueries.

Tobemoreprecise,unthinkinguseoftheInternet,andinparticularuntutoreduseofGoogle,hastheabilitytomakeusstupid,butthatisnotaforegoneconclusion.More

andmoreofusexperienceattentiondeficit,likeBruceFriedmanintheNicholasCarr

article,butthatalonedoesnotstopusmakinggoodchoicesprovidedthatthe

factoidsofinformationaresoundthatweusetomakeoutdecisions. Thepotential

forstupiditycomeswherewerelyonGoogle(orYahoo,orBing,oranyengine)to

providerelevantinformationinresponsetopoorlyconstructedqueries,frequentlyone

wordqueries,andthenbasedecisionsorconclusionsonthosereturneditems.Peter

Griffiths,formerHeadofInformationattheHomeOfficewithintheOfficeoftheChief

InformationOfficer,UnitedKingdom

Theproblemisn'tGoogle;it'swhatGooglehelpsusfind. Forsome,Googlewillletthemfinduselesscontentthatdoesnotchallengetheirminds. Butforothers,Google

willleadthemtoexpectanswerstoquestions,toexploretheworld,toseeandthink

forthemselves.EstherDyson,longtimeInternetexpertandinvestor

PeoplearealreadyusingGoogleasanadjuncttotheirownmemory.Forexample,Ihaveahunchaboutsomething,needfactstosupport,andGooglecomesthroughfor

me.Sometimes,

Isee

I'm

wrong,

and

Iappreciate

finding

that

out

before

Iopen

my

mouth.CraigNewmark,founderCraigsList

Googleisadataaccesstool.Notallofthatdataisusefulorcorrect.Isuspecttheamountofmisleadingdataisincreasingfasterthantheamountofcorrectdata.There

shouldalsobeadistinctionmadebetweendataandinformation.Dataismeaninglessin

theabsenceofanorganizingcontext.Thatmeansthatdifferentpeoplelookingatthe

samedataarelikelytocometodifferentconclusions.Thereisabigdifferencewith

whataworldclassartistcandowithapaintbrushasopposedtoamonkey.Inother

words,thevalueofGooglewilldependonwhattheuserbringstothegame.Thevalue

ofdataishighlydependentonthequalityofthequestionbeingasked.RobertLunn,

consultant,

FocalPoint

Analytics

ThebigstruggleisoverwhatkindofinformationGoogleandothersearchengineskickback

tousers.Intheageofsocialmediawhereuserscanbetheirowncontentcreatorsitmightget

harderandhardertoseparatehighqualitymaterialfromjunk.

Accesstomoreinformationisn'tenough theinformationneedstobecorrect,timely,andpresentedinamannerthatenablesthereadertolearnfromit. Thecurrent


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12

networkisfullofinaccurate,misleading,andbiasedinformationthatoftencrowdsout

thevalidinformation. Peoplehavenotlearnedthatpopularoravailableinformation

isnotnecessarilyvalid.GeneSpafford,PurdueUniversityCERIAS,Associationfor

ComputingMachineryU.S.PublicPolicyCouncil

Ifwetake'Google'tomeanthecomplexsocial,economicandculturalphenomenonthat

is

amassively

interactive

search

and

retrieval

information

system

used

by

people

andyetalsousingthemtogenerateitsdata,IthinkGooglewill,attheveryleast,not

makeussmarterandprobablywillmakeusmorestupidinthesenseofbeingrelianton

crude,generalisedapproximationsoftruthandinformationfinding.Wherethe

questionsareeasy,Googlewillthereforehelp;wherethequestionsarecomplex,we

willflounder.MattAllen,formerpresidentoftheAssociationofInternet

ResearchersandassociateprofessorofinternetstudiesatCurtinUniversityinAustralia

Thechallengeisinseparatingthatwheatfromthechaff,asitalwayshasbeenwithanyothersourceofmassinformation,whichhasbeenthecaseallthewaybackto

ancientinstitutionslikelibraries. Thoseusers(ofGoogle,cableTV,orlibraries)whocan

dosoefficientlywillbeattheodds,becomingsmarterandmakingbetterchoices.

However,theunfortunatelymajoritywillcontinuetoremain,asCarrsays,stupid.

ChristopherSaunders,managingeditorinternetnews.com

TheproblemwithGooglethatislurkingjustunderthecleandesignhomepageisthetragedyofthecommons:thelinkqualityseemstogodowneveryyear. Thelink

qualitymayactuallynotbegoingdownbutthesignaltonoiseisgettingworseas

commercialschemesleadtomoreandmorejunklinks.GlenEdens,formersenior

vicepresidentanddirectoratSunMicrosystemsLaboratories,chiefscientistHewlett

Packard

Literaryintelligenceisverymuchunderthreat.

Ifonedefines orpartiallydefines IQasliteraryintelligence,theabilitytositwithapieceoftextualmaterialandanalyzeitforcomplexmeaningandretainderived

knowledge,thenweareindeedintrouble.Literarycultureisintrouble.Weare

spendinglesstimereadingbooks,buttheamountofpureinformationthatweproduce

asacivilizationcontinuestoexpandexponentially.Thatthesetrendsarelinked,that

theriseofthelatteriscausingthedeclineoftheformer,isnotimpossible.Onecould

drawreassurancefromtodaysvibrantWebcultureifthegeneralsurfingpublic,which

isbecomingmoreathomeinthisnewmedium,displayedagrowingpropensityfor

literate,criticalthought.Buttakeacarefullookatthemanyblogs,postcomments,

Facebook

pages,

and

online

conversations

that

characterize

todays

Web

2.0

environment.Thistypeofcontentgeneration,thismethodofwriting,isnotonly

subliterate,itmayactuallyunderminetheliteraryimpulse.Hoursspenttextingand

emailing,accordingtothisview,donottranslateintoimprovedwritingorreading

skills.PatrickTucker,senioreditor,TheFuturistmagazine


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13

Newliteracieswillberequiredtofunctioninthisworld.Infact,theinternetmightchangethe

verynotionofwhatitmeanstobesmart.Retrievalofgoodinformationwillbeprized.Maybe

araceofextremeGooglerswillcomeintobeing.

Thecriticaluncertaintyhereiswhetherpeoplewilllearnandbetaughttheessentialliteracies

necessary

for

thriving

in

the

current

infosphere:

attention,

participation,

collaboration,crapdetection,andnetworkawarenessaretheonesI'mconcentrating

on.Ihavenoreasontobelievethatpeoplewillbeanylesscredulous,gullible,lazy,or

prejudicedintenyears,andamnotoptimisticabouttherateofchangeinour

educationsystems,butitiscleartomethatpeoplearenotgoingtobesmarterwithout

learningtheropes.HowardRheingold,authorofseveralprominentbookson

technology,teacheratStanfordUniversityandUniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley

Googlemakesussimultaneouslysmarterandstupider.Gotaquestion?Withinstantaccesstopracticallyeverypieceofinformationeverknowntohumankind,wetakefor

grantedwe'reonlyaquickwebsearchawayfromtheanswer.Ofcourse,thatdoesn't

meanweunderstandit.Inthecomingyearswewillhavetocontinuetoteachpeopleto

thinkcriticallysotheycanbetterunderstandthewealthofinformationavailableto

them. JeskaDzwigalski,LindenLab

Wemightimaginethatintenyears,ourdefinitionofintelligencewilllookverydifferent.Bythen,wemightagreeonsmartassomethinglikea'networked'or

'distributed'intelligencewhereknowledgeisourabilitytopiecetogethervariousand

disparatebitsofinformationintocoherentandnovelforms.ChristineGreenhow,

educationalresearcher,UniversityofMinnesotaandYaleInformationandSociety

Project

Humanintellectwillshiftfromtheabilitytoretainknowledgetowardstheskillstodiscovertheinformationi.e.araceofextremeGooglers(orwhateverdiscoverytools

comenext).

The

world

of

information

technology

will

be

dominated

by

the

algorithm

designersandtheirlibrariancohorts.Ofcourse,theinformationthey'researchinghas

toberightinthefirstplace.Andwhodecidesthat?SamMichel,founderChinwag,

communityfordigitalmediapractitionersintheUnitedKingdom

Onenewliteracythatmighthelpisthecapacitytobuildandusesocialnetworkstohelp

peoplesolveproblems.

There'snodoubtthattheinternetisanextensionofhumanintelligence,bothindividualandcollective.Buttheextenttowhichit'sabletoaugmentintelligence

depends

on

how

much

people

are

able

to

make

it

conform

to

their

needs.

Being

able

to

lookupwhostarredinthe2ndseasonoftheTraceyUllmanshowonWikipediaisthe

lowestformofintelligenceaugmentation;beingabletobuildsocialnetworksand

interactivesoftwarethathelpsyouanswerspecificquestionsorenrichyourintellectual

lifeismuchmorepowerful.Thiswillmatterevenmoreastheinternetbecomesmore

pervasive.AlreadymyiPhonefunctionsastheexternal,siliconlobeofmybrain.Forit

tohelpmebecomeevensmarter,itwillneedtobeevenmoreeffectiveandflexible

thanitalreadyis.Whatworriesmeisthatdevicemanufacturersandinternet


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14

developersaremoreconcernedwithlockinthantheyarewithmakingpeoplesmarter.

Thatmeansitwillbeaconstantstruggleforindividualstoreclaimtheirintelligence

fromthenetworkstheyincreasinglydependupon.DylanTweney,senioreditor,

Wiredmagazine

Nothingcanbebadthatdeliversmoreinformationtopeople,moreefficiently.Itmightbe

thatsome

people

lose

their

way

in

this

world,

but

overall,

societies

will

be

substantially

smarter.

TheInternethasfacilitatedordersofmagnitudeimprovementsinaccesstoinformation.Peoplenowanswerquestionsinafewmomentsthatacoupleofdecades

backtheywouldnothavebotheredtoask,sincegettingtheanswerwouldhavebeen

impossiblydifficult.JohnPike,Director,globalsecurity.org

Googleissimplyonestep,albeitamajorone,inthecontinuingcontinuumofhowtechnologychangesourgenerationanduseofdata,information,andknowledgethat

hasbeenevolvingfordecades. Asthedataandinformationgoesdigitalandnew

informationiscreated,whichisataneverincreasingrate,theresultantabilityto

evaluate,distill,coordinate,collaborate,problemsolveonlyincreasesalongasimilar

line.Whereitmayappearadumbingdownhasoccurredononehand,itisoffset(I

believeinmultiples)byhowwelearninnewwaystolearn,generatenewknowledge,

problemsolve,andinnovate. MarioMorino,Chairman,VenturePhilanthropy

Partners

Googleitselfandothersearchtechnologieswillgetbetterovertimeandthatwillhelpsolve

problemscreatedbytoomuchinformationandtoomuchdistraction.

I'moptimisticthatGooglewillgetsmarterby2020orwillbereplacedbyautilitythatis

far

better

than

Google.

That

tool

will

allow

queries

to

trigger

chains

of

high

quality

information muchclosertoknowledgethanflood. Humanswhoareabletoaccess

thesechainsinhighspeed,immersivewayswillhavemorepattersavailabletothem

thatwillaiddecisionmaking. Allofthisoptimismwillonlyworkoutifthebattleforthe

souloftheInternetiswonbytherightpeople thepeoplewhobelievethatopen,fast,

networksaregoodforallofus.SusanCrawford,formermemberofPresident

ObamasNationalEconomicCouncil,nowonthelawfacultyattheUniversityof

Michigan

IfIamusingGoogletofindananswer,itisverylikelytheanswerIfindwillbeonamessageboardinwhichotherhumansarecollaborativelydebatinganswersto

questions.

I

will

have

to

choose

between

the

answer

I

like

the

best.

Or

it

will

force

me

todomoreresearchtofindmoreinformation.Googleneverbreedspassivityor

stupidityinme:Itcatalyzesmetoexplorefurther.AndalongthewayIbumpintomore

humans,moreideasandmoreanswers.JoshuaFouts,SeniorFellowforDigital

Media&PublicPolicyattheCenterfortheStudyofthePresidency

Themoreweusetheinternetandsearch,themoredependentonitwewillbecome.


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15

AstheInternetgetsmoresophisticateditwillenableagreatersenseofempowermentamongusers.Wewillnotbemorestupid,butwewillprobablybemoredependent

uponit.BernieHogan,OxfordInternetInstitute

Eveninlittleways,includingindinnertablechitchat,Googlecanmakepeoplesmarter.

[Familydinnerconversations]havechangedmarkedlybecausewecannowlookthingsupatwill.ThatsjustonesmallpieceofevidenceIseethathavingGoogleat

handisgreatforcivilization.JerryMichalski,president,Sociate

Weknowmorethanever,andthismakesuscrazy.

Theanswerisreally:both.Googlehasalreadymadeussmarter,abletomakefasterchoicesfrommoreinformation.Children,tosaynothingofadults,scientistsand

professionalsinvirtuallyeveryfield,canseekanddiscoverknowledgeinwaysandwith

scopeandscalethatwasunfathomablebeforeGoogle.Googlehasundoubtedly

expandedouraccesstoknowledgethatcanbeexperiencedonascreen,oreven

processedthroughalgorithms,ormapped.YetGooglehasalsomadeuscarelesstoo,or

stupidwhen,forinstance,Googledrivingdirectionsdon'tgetustotherightplace.It

ahsconfusedandoverwhelmeduswithchoices,andwithsourcesthatarenoteasily

differentiatedorverified.Perhapsit'sevenalienatedusfromthephysicalworlditself

fromknowledgeandintelligencethatcomesfromseeing,touching,hearing,breathing

andtastinglife.Fromlookingintosomeone'seyesandhavingthemlookbackintoours.

Perhapsit'smadeusimpatient,orshortenedourattentionspans,ordiminishedour

abilitytounderstandlongthoughts.It'senlightenedanxiety.Weknowmorethanever,

andthismakesuscrazy.AndrewNachison,cofounder,WeMedia

Afinalthought:MaybeGooglewontmakeusmorestupid,butitshouldmakeusmore

modest.

Thereisandwillbelotsmoretothinkabout,andalotmorearethinking.No,notmorestupid.Maybemorehumble. SheizafRafaeli,CenterfortheStudyofthe

InformationSociety,UniversityofHaifa


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16

Part2:Areviewofresponsestoatensionpairabouttheimpactoftheinternet

onreading,writing,andtherenderingofknowledge

CURRENT

EXPERTS

N=371

CURRENT

TOTAL

N=895

% 69 65 By2020,itwillbeclearthattheInternethasenhancedand

improvedreading,writing,andtherenderingofknowledge.

27 32 By2020,itwillbeclearthattheInternethasdiminishedand

endangeredreading,writing,andtheintelligentrenderingof

knowledge.

4 3 Didnotrespond

RespondentswereaskedtoexplaintheirchoiceandshareyourviewoftheInternets

influence

on

the

future

of

knowledge

sharing

in

2020,

specifically

when

it

comes

to

reading

and

writingandotherdisplaysofinformationwhatislikelytostaythesameandwhatwillbe

different?Whatdoyouthinkisthefutureofbooks?

Interestingly,peopleoftenrepliedtothisquestionwithpersonalstoriesabouttheirown

readingandwritinghabits.Whatfollowsisaselectionofthehundredsofwrittenelaborations

andsomeoftherecurringthemesinthoseanswers:

Theevidenceisprettyclear:Theactualwordsthatarebeingwrittenintheworldoftexting

andTweetingarenotsohot.

MostwritingonlineisdevolvingtowardSMSandtweetsthatinvolvequick,throwawaynoteswithabbreviationsandthreadedreferences.Thisisnotaformoflasting

communication.In2020thereisunlikelytobealistofclassictweetsandblogposts

thateverystudentandeducatedcitizenshouldhaveread.GeneSpafford,Purdue

UniversityCERIAS,AssociationforComputingMachineryU.S.PublicPolicyCouncil

IMHOthebiggerproblemisthelackofcriticalthinkingintheInformationAge.Whatispresentedonlinemaynotbecorrectbutinterpretedassuchbythereader. Further,

writingseemstotake2distinct'evolutions' thereisFORMALwritingusedinreports

andprofessionalwork,andtheINFORMALwritingusedinpersonalemails,IM,and

socialnetworkingthatwould(orshould)nevercrossoverintotheFORMALcategoryof

writing.Right

now

its

debatable

how

much

the

latter

has

transgressed

into

the

former

asformeIcringeinsuchcases!RichardForno,SoftwareEngineeringInstitute,

CarnegieMellonUniversity

Somekindsofexpressionwilllose.Otherswillwin.

Thisisadistinctionwithoutametric.Ithinklongformexpressivefictionwillsuffer(thoughthissufferinghasbeenmoreorlessconstantsincetheinventionofradio)while


17/48

17

allnumericandgraphicformsofrenderingknowledge,fromthecreationanduseof

databasestoallformsofvisualdisplayofdatawillbeinagoldenage,withordinary

nonfictionwritinggettingamodestboost.So,Englishmajorslose,engineeringwins,

andwhatlookslikeanUporDownquestionsaysmoreaboutthedemographicofthe

answererthananypredictionofthefuture.ClayShirky,professor,Interactive

TelecommunicationsProgram,

New

York

University

Readingandwritingwillbedifferentin10years.Languagehasalwaysevolvedtoembrace

newrealitiesanditisevolvingnow.Therewillbeanewfluidityinmediacreation.Visual

representationsandstorytellingwillbeimportantinnewways,soscreenliteracywill

emerge.

Ithinkthestateofreadingandwritingwillbe*different*intenyearsasaresultoftheInternet.Languagesevolve,andestablishedpracticesforwritingevolve;whenbooks

werehandletteredbyscribes,theywerewrittenverydifferentlythantheyarenow,

butit'shardtomakeacasethatthepracticegotworse.TheInternetandassociated

publishingtools blogs,Twitter,andthelike mayhaveanacceleratingeffecton

thosechanges;theartofreading,writing,andrenderingknowledgeislikelytoevolve

morequicklythanithasinthepast,andtherearesomewhowouldarguethatthatisa

badthing.Ithinkitwillbedifferent;notbetter,notworse,butnotthesame.Rachel

Smith,vicepresident,NewMediaConsortium

TheInternetwilldriveaclearandprobablyirreversibleshiftfromwrittenmediatovisualmedia.Expressingideasinthefuturewilljustaslikelyinvolvecreatinga

simulationaswritinganexpositoryessay.Whetherthatwillmakeourrenderingsof

knowledgelessintelligentisunclear,butIthinkitslikelythattherearetremendous

opportunitiestoenhanceit.Forinstance,woulditbemoreintelligenttorenderour

knowledgeof

politics

in

Ancient

Egypt

as

abook

length

essay

or

arealistic,

interactive

roleplayingsimulation?AnthonyTownsend,researchdirector,Instituteforthe

Future

WhenIwasaboy,homeworkconsistedofwritingaparagraph. Now,youthwritingparagraphsinablinkofaneye. Theyaremasteringlanguageonlytoreinventit. They

areusingitinnewforms. Tags.Labels. Acronyms. Andthegamebecomesawritten

gameofwhocanusewrittenwordmosteffectively. Reading,writing,and

communicatingwillbecomemuchmorefluidasyoutharemoreengagedinthepractice

oftheseskills,andhaveagreatermotivationtopracticetheirskills.RobertCannon,

seniorcounselforinternetlawatFederalCommunicationsCommission

We

are

currently

transitioning

from

reading

mainly

on

paper

to

reading

mainly

on

screens.Aswedoso,mostofusreadMORE,intermsofquantity(wordcount),but

morepromiscuouslyandinshorterintervalsandwithlessdedication.Asthesehabits

takeroot,theycorruptourwillingnesstocommittolongtexts,asfoundinbooksor

essays.Wewillbelesspatientandlessabletoconcentrateonlongformtexts.Thiswill

resultinaresurgenceofshortformtextsandstorytelling,inHaikuculturereplacing

bookculture.AndreasKluth,writer,Economistmagazine


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18

Thenatureofwritinghaschangednow,especiallysincesomuchofittakesplaceinpublic.

Thequalityofthenewmaterialwillgetbetterovertime,inpartbecausethesenewsocial

mediacreatorswillgetfeedbackandlearn.Todayschangesparallelotherhistoricchanges

thatoccurredwhennewtechnologiescameonthescene.

Theinternethashelpedshiftwrittencommunicationfromaprivatespacetoapublicone.Notallmanifestationsofthisshiftarepleasantones wearediscoveringthat

manyofthepeoplewhosurroundusareangry,partisanandillinformed.Butforthe

mostpart,we'reexperiencingthebenefitsofbeingencouragedtodevelopideasand

argumentsinpublic.Shiftingwritingfromprivatetopublicspaces,inthelongrun,will

bebeneficialforthespreadofhumanknowledge.EthanZuckerman,GlobalVoices

Theinternetisclearlyresponsibleforanexplosionincontentproduction.Wemustrememberthatthesemeasuresofevaluationarenormativeandshiftovertime

enhancementandimprovementisrelative. Ifirmlybelievethatmorepeoplethanever

beforewillbeaffordedtheopportunitytowriteandcreate,tofindaudiences,and

engageincontentenhancingfeedbackloopsthatwillenhancecommunication.Fred

Stutzman,SchoolofInformationandLibraryScience,UniversityofNorthCarolina

ChapelHill

Theprintingpressdiminishedrelianceonoralhistoryandmyth,photographytransformedthepurposeofvisualart,andmusicrecordingreducedthestockof

amateurmusicians.Wearecurrentlyexperienceasimilarmassshifttoanewmeansof

sensemakingandknowledgetransmission. Literacyisahistoricalconstructthatwill

continue,butinthecontextofnew,pervasivenormsthatareonlynowemerging.

NathanielJames,executivedirector,OneWebDay

Theinternetgenerationisbeingexposedtotextandmediainunprecedentedquantities,andmore,isnotjustconsumingthismedia,butproducingitaswell.Practice

tells.The

improvement

will

be

especially

dramatic

and

apparent

because

new

readers

willbecomparedprimarilywiththepreviousgeneration,thetelevisiongeneration,

whichforthemostpartdidnotreadatall.Unfortunately,thisimprovementwillbe

apparentonlytothenewlyliterategeneration;theoldergenerationwillcontinueto

complainthatyoungpeoplecannotread,despiteevidencetothecontrary.Moreover,

itwillbeapparentby2020thatamultiliteratesocietyhasdeveloped,onethatcan

communicatewitheasethroughavarietyofmedia,includingartandphotography,

animation,video,gamesandsimulations,aswellastextandcode.StephenDownes,

NationalResearchCouncil,Canada

Whenwritingitselfappeared,philosophersfearedthatitwouldweakenmemoryanddegrade

intelligence.

But

it

allowed

for

a

great,

albeit

externalized

memory

and

an

enlarged,albeitsharedintelligence.Whenprintingcameonthescene,scholarsdecried

thenewtechnologyforpropagatingerrorand,asitwere,forthrowingpearlsbefore

swine.Butprintingexpandedknowledge,notleastbecauseitcouldexactlyreproduce

textsand,moreimportantly,picturesanddiagrams.Anditmadethisknowledgemore

broadlyavailablethaneverybefore.TheInternetwillhavesimilareffects,withsome

lossesbut,onbalance,moregains.MarkU.Edwards,senioradvisortotheDean,

HarvardUniversityDivinitySchool


19/48

19

Linksthatallowpeopletojumpfromtexttotextandexplorematerialfurtherhavechanged

thenatureofreadingandargumentation.Networkedinformationhasspecialqualitiesand

canbebetterthanthefronttobacklinearkindofreadingthatpeoplehaveusuallydone.

Thewaywereadandwriteiscertainlychanging.Spellingandgrammarhavegottenworse.

People

don't

think

things

through

or

edit

as

much

before

publishing

or

sending

astheyoncedid.Butontheotherhand,theInternethasimprovedmyChinesereading

andwritingability.Thehyperlinkenablesmetocommunicateinnonlinearwaysthat

addslayersofmeaningtomywritingthatcouldnotexistonpaper.ThefactthatIcan

mixvisuals,sound,andtextwhenmakinganargumentortellingastoryoftenenhances

theeffectivenessofmywork.RebeccaMacKinnon,PrincetonCenterforInformation

TechnologyPolicy

ThenetISimprovingindividuals'accesstosubstantiveinformation thatREQUIREStheabilitytoread(andunderstand;). Evenmo'bettah,itseemstohaveweaned

somenumberoffolks especiallythosewhoareyounger frompreviousgenerations'

fanaticaladdictiontounidirectional,othercontrolledtelevisions.Butithasalsofueled

ablizzardofnearincoherentblather thatisungrammatical,wildlymisspelled,and

oftenpartiallyortotallyfalse. Thelatterimpliesthatfolksmayreadmore,butreceive

less[accurate!]knowledge(information).Fortunately,muchofthenet atleastinits

currentmo'lessopenaccessform ISthefastestandmostbodaciousselfcorrecting

informationsysteminexistence.JimWarren,longtimetechentrepreneurand

activist

Peoplearedoingmorereadingandwritingnowandthathastobebetterthanthe

alternative.TheactofmakingmediaintheWeb2.0worldandbeyondhastoincrease

peoplesengagementwithinformationandconveyingit.

Morepeoplearereadingandwriting,andinmoreways,formorereadersandotherwriters,thaneverbefore,andthesumofallofitgoesupeveryday.DocSearls,co

authorofTheCluetrainManifesto

Ithinkthatamarginallygreaternumberofpeoplewillbeengagedincreatingmediavisualaswellastextandasaresult,theoverallliteracywillincrease.Ialsothinkthat

thepracticeofallusionwillhaveamuchshorterleadtime.AlexHalavais,,vice

president,AssociationofInternetResearchers

Forheaven'ssake.It'sclearNOWthattheinternethasenhancedandimprovedreading,writing,andtherenderingofknowledge.Youhavetoknowhowtoread,it

encourages

writing,

and

people

can

exchange

knowledge.

Don't

confuse

this

with

the

businessmodelsbehindseriouspublishing,encyclopedias,anduniversities.Thefuture

ofbooksistiedintowhetherthereisasocial/businessmodelthatsupportswritingfor

intellectualcontentratherthanasmarketingbrochuresoradvertisingbait.Seth

Finkelstein,authoroftheInfothoughtblog,writerandprogrammer

Theinternetisincreasingtheamountofreadingandwriting. Thatmeansthereismoregoodwriting,andmorepeoplereadingthegoodwriting. But,inaccordancewith

Sturgeon'sLaw,90%ofinternetwritingwillbecrud,because90%ofeverythingiscrud.


20/48

20

Sotherewillbemorecrudwritingandreadingaswell.PeterNorvig,Google

ResearchDirector

Readingandwritingwillincreaseasthoseusingtheinternetandthewealthofinformationcontinuetobeexposedtoawideviewofvocabulary,worduse,and

contextualinformation.Grammar,vocabulary,andmorewillcontinuetoimprove,

especiallyfor

those

being

brought

up

solely

on

the

internet

as

the

major

reference

and

information/knowledgerepository.KevinNovak,WorldWideWebConsortium,

ChairEGOVsection

Wemayloseourabilitytowrite,intheliteralsensethatstudentsarenolongertaughtpenmanship.Wewilleithertypeorprintlike8yearolds.ButIthinkevenemail

stimulatestheputtingofideasintowriting. Andwhilewemayreadonlyonelectronic

media,Ithinkthebookandthescholarlyworkwillsurviveasimportantmeansbothof

transferringknowledgeandofentertainment.DavidClark,seniorresearchscientist

fortheNextGenerationInternet,MITprofessor

Theinternetwilldefinitely*develop*reading,writingandtherenderingofknowledge.Mostpeoplereadmoreandprettymucheverybodywritesmorebecause

oftheinternet.The*quality*ofthismaterialmaybelower ifmeasuredintermsof

grammarandspelling butthat'sthewrongmeasurement.HjalmarGislason,

founderDataMarket,amarketplaceforstructureddata

It'spopulartodecrytextingandlousyemaildrafting,butit'scleartomethatpeoplearewritingandreadingmorethaneverbeforebecauseoftheInternet.It'salsoclearto

methatgoodwritingisrecognizedandadmiredonline.Idon'tthinktheadventofvideo

willchangethat peopleinahurryforinformationstillwanttoscantextinsteadof

beingsubjecttosomeoneelse'svideohabits. Presentingyourselfthesedaysrequires

havingawrittenidentity,andthatwillcontinuetobethecasetenyearsfromnow.

SusanCrawford,formermemberofPresidentObamasNationalEconomicCouncil,

nowon

the

law

faculty

at

the

University

of

Michigan

MaterialproducedbycrowdslikeWikipedia isanewkindofwaytoproduceandshare

knowledgeandchallengingoldmodels.

Thereisatransformationinwhathowweacquire,use,disseminateandshareknowledge,particularlyinnotionsofparticipatoryculture.Knowledgeproducedby

individuals,withclearownershipofcopyrightandproduction,willhavetosharecenter

stagewithknowledgeproducedbythecrowds,asinWikipedia,butalsoinmanyother

potentialcollaborations.CarolineHaythornthwaite,professoringraduateschoolof

Library

and

Information

Science,

University

of

Illinois

at

Urbana

Champaign

AfourthRwillbeaddedtothebasiclearnedskillsofreading,ritin,;rithmatic:Retrieval.

Maybetheabilitytowritecomputercodewillbeanecessaryliteracy.Maybeitwillbethe

abilitytowritesmartsearchqueries.

IusedtobemoanthelostepistolaryarthoweverwiththebenefitoftimeIhavecometounderstandthatthereisfargreaterbenefittoanengaged/activeconsumptionof


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21

media(asopposedtothepassiveconsumptionofthepast).Asmediabecomesmore

socializedandweareallrequiredtobeactiveconsumers,producersetc.thereisan

inherentneedforustohaveaheightenedandenhancedcomprehension,aconciseand

disciplinedwritingformandamoreuniversallens.AsUdiManberofGoogleextolled,

thefourR'swillbecomereading,writing,arithmetic,andretrieval. Thewebwillbethat

interactivemechanism

that

allows

this

improvement

for

these

basic

human

skills.

BrianOShaughnessy,directorofcommunications,Skype

Thisoneiscleartome.Reading,writing,andtherenderingofknowledgewillimprove butwillpeoplebeequippedtoseparatethecrapfromtheaccurateinformation?

That'sacriticaluncertainty.HowardRheingold,authorofseveralprominentbooks

ontechnology,teacheratStanfordUniversityandUniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley

Thekindofliteracygainedbyexposuretotechnologyandtheinternetisbecomingincreasinglynecessaryandnuanced,butnotinwaysthatwilllikelyplease

grammaticians.Instead,therulesoflanguagesarebeingrewrittenbywhatourdevices

facilitateandmakeeasyfrombeingabletoachievespellingproficiencybyrelyingon

spellchecktoinventingentirelynewsyntaxforpresentingamessage(fromemoticons

tohashtags).Onequestioniswhethercodewillbecomeaformofliteratureuntoitself.

Whileitseemstheprovenanceofengineersanddeveloperstoday,nothingistosay

thatmakingitthroughhighschoolwon'trequirefluencyinHTMLorJavaScriptrather

thanFrench(remember,Googlewilltranslateforyouinrealtime).Andifcodeisoneof

themostdirectmeanstoexpressanidea,perhapsitwillbecomeaunifying,albeitfairly

unromantic,languageoftheages.ChrisMessina,CEO,CitizenAgency,internet

consultancy

Wewillredefinewhatwemeanbyreading,writing,andtherenderingofknowledge.Writingmaybemakingvideos.Readingmaybeparsingdataorconstructingbetter

queries.Howweteachtheskillsofacquiring,analyzing,andsharinginformationwill

haveto

change.

Jeff

Jarvis,

prominent

blogger,

professor,

City

University

of

New

YorkGraduateSchoolofJournalism

By2020,wewillhaveenteredapostliteracyera.

In2020wewillhaveenteredpostliteracyera.Witheverythingsmartandinformationconstantlyavailable,readingandwritingtookonnewdimensionsintheir

placeofhumanskills. Problemsolvingandreasoningbecamemoreimportant.

Readingandwritingmorelargelyreplacedbyvoicein voiceouttypesofinteractions.

Instantaneouslanguagetranslationathigherlevelsofaccuracythancouldbeattained

by

human

beings

replaced

the

need

for

translators

and

written

word

as

we

currently

knowit.Whetherthisisaninherenteviliscertainlynotclear. Hence,thewordingof

theitemforcesustomakeaninappropriatevaluejudgment.StephenF.Steele,

professor,InstitutefortheFuture,AnneArundelCommunityCollege


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22

Thefinalword:Avisionforhowthebookofthefuturewillserveus.

Insteadofreadingandwriting,let'ssaycommunicationandcontentcreationwillbeeasierandenhanced. Ihopethatthefutureofbooksisthis:Aregularsize,regular

weighthardcoverwillcontainnotpaperbutepaperthatanybookcanbeembedded

into,and

the

content

can

change

at

my

whim.

Ican

move

fluidly

between

professionally producedaudioandtextwithoptionalhyperlinksthatbringmeto

definitions,criticism,reviews,anddiscussionforums i.e.Icanreadtopage50,plugit

intomycarandlistentoitfor10pages,andpickupreadingagainonpage60atmy

destination.Multimediawouldbeembedded anovelmightlinktoacharacterblog,a

referencebookmightincludevideo,authorbioswouldbeavideo.Thepaperwillbea

fullcolortouchscreen.Mylocallibrarywillloanmeebooksforfree,thatIcan

downloadwithouteversettingfootintoalibrarybuilding.Anyonewouldbeable

becomeacontentcreator,becauseoftheeaseofthepublishingplatform.AndIwould

beabletoseamlesslyconsumecontentinanyformatonanyplatform.Beth

Gallaway,libraryconsultantandtrainer


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23

Part3:Areviewofresponsestoatensionpairabouthowtakeofftechnologies

willemergeinthefuture

CURRENT

EXPERTS

N=371

CURRENT

TOTAL

N=895

% 16 17 Thehotgadgetsandapplicationsthatwillcapturetheimagination

ofusersin2020areprettyevidenttodayandwillnottakemanyof

todayssavviestinnovatorsbysurprise.

81 80 Thehotgadgetsandapplicationsthatwillcapturetheimagination

ofusersin2020willoftencomeoutoftheblueandnothave

beenanticipatedbymanyoftodayssavviestinnovators.

3 2 Didnotrespond

Respondentswere

asked

to

explain

their

choice

and

share

your

view

of

its

implications

for

the

future.Whatdoyouthinkwillbethehotgadgets,applications,technologytoolsin2020?What

followsisaselectionofthehundredsofwrittenelaborationsandsomeoftherecurringthemes

inthoseanswers:

Theexpertsrecordissolousyatspottingkeytechnologiesaheadoftimethatthereislittle

chancetheywillseethekillergadgetsandapplicationsof2020.Ifyouhadaskedthisquestiona

decadeago,noonewouldhavepredictedtheiPhone.Ifexpertscouldalreadyseethemtoday,

theyreallywouldntbeoutoftheblueinnovations.

Ourabilitytopredicthotgadgetshasshowntobepoor,andthisisn'tlikelytochange.

Wojciech

Dec,

Edge

Engineering

Group,

Cisco

Systems

Iftheycouldbeanticipatednow,they'dbethehotgadgets*today*.CharlieMartin,authorandconsultant

Trendsandpatternsthatwewillcontinuetoseeswingsbetweencentralizationanddecentralization,opennessandwalledgardens,increasinggrowthofmobileandlocal

information,searchandaggregationbutwehavenoideawhatthemajorgadgetsand

applicationsof2020willbe.Mostofthetopwebsitesof10yearsagoarenolongerin

thetop10 andweneverwouldhaveimaginedmanyofthehotgadgetsavailable

todayin1999.DavidSifry,CEOofOffbeatGuides,cofounderofTechnorati

There

are

basic

trends

evident

now

and

some

groundwork

that

has

been

in

place

for

years

thatwillyieldinnovation.Theinternetofthingsisbeingbuilt.Sensorswillproliferate.

Morepowerfulmobiledevices,evercheapernetbooks,virtualizationandcloudcomputing,reputationsystemsforsocialnetworkingandgroupcollaboration,sensors

andothersmallsystemsreportinglimitedamountsofinformation,doityourself

embeddedsystems,robots,sophisticatedalgorithmsforslurpingupdataand

performingstatisticalanalysis,visualizationtoolstoreportresultsofanalysis,affective


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24

technologies,personalizedandlocationawareservices,excellentfacialandvoice

recognition,electronicpaper,anomalybasedsecuritymonitoring,selfhealingsystems

that'sareasonablelisttogetstartedwith.Beyondfiveyears,everythingiswide

open.AndyOram,editorandblogger,OReillyMedia

Tenyearsisn'tverylong,eveninInternetyears. Thesinglebiggestchangeoverthelast

ten

years,

Ithink,

has

been

the

prevalence

of

mobile

devices.

Igot

my

first

iPod

nineyearsago,buthadotherdigitalmusicplayerslongbeforethat. I'vebeenusing

RIMssincewellbeforethey'dfiledtheBlackBerrytrademark,againmorelikefifteen

yearsago. Cloudcomputinghasbeentalkedaboutformorethantenyears,andIPv6

isnowfifteenyearsoldaswell,andneitherofthosehaveyetpredominated,thoughI

believetheywillinthenextten. Inshort,lookingattoday'spopulartechnologies,I

don'tseemanythatweren'talreadythoroughlyconceivedoftenyearsago.Bill

Woodcock,researchdirector,PacketClearingHouse,anonprofitresearchorganization

Thecorrectanswerisacombinationofthetwo.Ithinkinthedevicespacewecanseemuchofwhatwillhappenoverthenextfewyears:theubiquitousavailabilityof

sensorsandactuators,thecybercar,varioussortsofimplantsandprotocyborg

elements.Buttheapplicationspaceishardertopredict.DavidClark,seniorresearch

scientistfortheNextGenerationInternet,MITprofessor

Thehotproductsof2020,especiallywearable,contextawaresystems,alreadyseetheirprogenitorsincurrentlabexperiments.Nomajorsurprisesforthosewhoare

alreadyengagedinagoodenvironmentalscan.AlexHalavais,vicepresident,

AssociationofInternetResearchers

Thereisnothingnewunderthesun,itissaid,andmuchofwhatarrivesby2020,peoplewillsaywedidthatatBBNinthe1970sorItwasinPlatohalfacenturyago.

WasFacebookorTwitterevidenttenyearsago?Wasitanticipated?I'dfeelalittle

moreconfidentwith2025onthis,butIexpectalotofsurprisesby2020,andthe

beginningsof

some

massive

movements

based

on

aproliferation

of

networks

of

sensorsandeffectors.JonathanGrudin,principalresearcher,Microsoft(stresses

thattheseviewsarehisown,notthecompanys)

Formeaugmentedrealityhastobethefuturefor2020,togetherwithit'sclosecousintheinternetofthings.Ithinkthatthesetwowillgrowuptogetheroverthecoming

years,andslowlycreepmoreandmoreintoourdailylivesasmoreandmoredevices

becomewebenabled,andtheabilitytoconnecttothewebbecomesubiquitous.Itwill

becomecommonplacetobeabletooverlayreviewsofaproductsimplybypointinga

screenatit,orchecktheweatherforecastbypointingyourphoneatthesky.Rich

Osborne,WebInnovationOfficer,UniversityofExeter

I

don't

think

totally

new

things

will

come

out

of

nowhere

but

I

do

believe

that

even

whatweknowtodaymaybeuseddifferentlyorsomenewtwistonexisting

technologiesmaytakeusebystorm.Wearecreaturesofhabitandweareinfluenced

tremendouslybywhatthosearoundusdo.Wedon'tliketoadmitthatbutitistrue.No

onereallyknowswhythingscatchonbutwhentheydo,itisoftenasurprise. Itisnot

reallynewbutitcanbeasurprise.LinkHoewing,VicePresident,Information

Technology,VerizonCommunications


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25

Oneofthebigreasonsexpertsdonothaveastrongsenseabouttheinnovationsofthefuture

isthattheenvironmentoftechnologyisstilltakingshape.Lotsmorebandwidthand

computingpowerforlesscostthantodaywillspurchangesthatcannotbeforeseennow.

Someof2020shotnewgadgetsareboundtocomeoutoftheblue.ButforNorthAmericans,

Ithink

the

Next

Big

Thing

will

be

an

exponential

jump

in

awell

known

commodity:bandwidth.ResidentialbandwidthscarcityinbothCanadaandtheUShas

heldbacktheavailabilityofimmersiveenvironmentsforpersonalmessagingandmulti

playeronlinegaming,nottomentiontelemedicine,telecommuting,realhidef

entertainmentanddistancelearning.MostofusarestillstuckwithasingledigitMbit/s

connection;highlyasymmetricdownlink/uplinkarchitectures;highprices;andveryfew

choicesinserviceprovider.Ifwecanget,say,30%ofNorthAmericanhomesonalast

mileof50megsdownand20megsupby2020,wellexperienceaseachangeinour

onlinelives.Thisdevelopmentwillbecomeespeciallyimportantasmoreandmore

devicesbecomenetworked,uptoandincludingourkitchenappliances.DavidEllis,

YorkUniversity,Toronto

Mostofthecomponentsarecertainlyaroundus,butwhatreallydistinguishesthewaytechnologyinnovationishappeningtodayisiterativeandendlessrecombinations.

Thepotentialvarietyissogreat,andtheroleofendusersinshapingtheoutcomeso

strong,thatthereareapotentiallylimitlessnumberofcombinations.Technology

innovationwillprobablybealotmorebottomupandorganicasaresult forecastingit

islessaboutunderstandlinearprocessesandmoreaboutunderstandingnonlinear

processesandemergentbehavior.It'sgoingtobehard.AnthonyTownsend,

researchdirector,InstitutefortheFuture

Wehaven'tevenglimpsedwhat'spossibleyet butmyanswertothisquestionisheavilyconditionedonanuprisingthatwilltakerealbackboneandorganization. The

onlyway

we'll

get

great

new

surprising

gizmos

and

uses

is

ifthe

network

providers

let

it

happen. I'mnotconfidentthattherearesufficientmarketpressurestomakethe

accessprovidersopenup.We'regettinggoodpressreleasesbuttherealityisthatthey

areoligopolistswithayearningforshorttermcontrolratherthanlongtermsocial

benefit. So: yes,wewillhaveamazingnewtoolsin2020,butonlyifwework

purposefullytowardstheopennessthatwillmakethatpossible.SusanCrawford,

formermemberofPresidentObamasNationalEconomicCouncil,nowonthelaw

facultyattheUniversityofMichigan

Sometrendsareclear:Mobileconnectivityandlocationbasedserviceswillgrowinthenext

decade.

Other

hot

items

will

include:

bigger/thinner

TVs,

3D

displays,

consolidated,

all

purposegadgetsandapps,speechrecognition.

It'sincrediblydifficulttopredictwhichspecificgadgetsandapplicationswilltakeofftwoyearsfromnow,letalone10yearsfromnow.It'sfareasiertopredictingeneral

terms,basedonthedirectionthattechnologyseemstobeevolving:TVswillbebigger

andthinner,they'llhavehigherresolutiondisplays,computingpowerwillbecheaper

andmoreubiquitous,wirelessdatawillachievehigherspeeds,etc.Butpredicting


26/48

26

specifichitdevicesandtheappsthattheyengenderisnexttoimpossible.Who

couldhaveforeseentheiPhone,oritshugeimpactonthecellphoneindustry,evenone

yearbeforeitcameout?DylanTweney,senioreditor,Wired

Morethanaforecast,wewouldliketostate[thatconsumerneedswillcreatespecialconditionsforacertainkindofinnovation]:consolidationinsteadofnovelties.Thepath

ofinnovation

in

gadgets

and

online

applications

in

the

last

years

has

been

so

incredibly

fastthatthereseemstobeacommoncryusefuladoption.Suppliers[willconcentrate]

onhelpingtheuser thecustomer ingettingthebestofinnovationratherthanin

innovationperse.Thiswill,indeed,decreasecuttingedgetechnologyinfavourof

majorandmassadoption.IsmaelPeaLopez,lecturerattheOpenUniversityof

Catalonia,SchoolofLawandPoliticalScience

Ipredictthinner,sturdier,friendliermobileplatforms.Iexpectthatinputdeviceswillgofromtouchscreentotouchairviainteractiveholographicsensorsthatsense

movementintheairaroundyou.Hondahastrucksizedthoughtcontrolledinterfaces

foritshumanoidrobotandothermachineryatthismoment.Isuspectthosewillmorph

toBorgishhardwiredwetandcyberwareinterfacescombinedwithtactile

sensation/movementsensorsandinputsthatwillbewoven/builtintoclothingthatwill

extendyourcomputingbeyondscreensanddevicestoyourbodyasatotalinput

device.Todaystoyrobot willbecomeyourAvatarcontrolledthroughyour

handheld?Worn?Personalwebaccessdevice Idontthinkwecanconceptualizewhat

willcomeforthinthenext10years.Justknowitwillbewhatwedreamtoday.

CameronLewis,ProgramManager,ArizonaDepartmentofHealthServices

Manyofthecomponentsthatwilldrivetomorrowsmostinnovativetechnologiesarealreadybeingdeveloped.Thequestionisinhowtheywillbeused.Justasspeech

recognition,thesemanticwebandaugmentedrealitywillleadtoTeleLiving a

naturalconversationhumanmachineinteraction,mostoftomorrowsapplicationswill

bebased

on

todays

technology.

Bryan

Trogdon,

President,

First

Semantic

Theonlyconstantischange.Infactthepaceofchangecontinuestoaccelerate.Fundamentally,wecanexpectdevices,mobility,locationbasedservices,andsentiment

toplayabiggerrole.R.RayWang,AltimeterGroup

Today'ssavviestinnovatorsareinfacttheonesthatareinventingfuturehotgadgetsandapplications.The2020themestowatchforwillbeintelligentdevicesandcloud

servicesaccessedacrossawidevarietyofplatforms:web,smartphone,tablet,settop

box,smartsurface,etc.By2020wewillseenextgeneration3DHDDisplaytechnology,

coupledwithmultimodalsensorinputapplicationintegration. ThiswillincludeHDTV

withcanrecognizeandunderstandtheviewersusingmultimodal(sight,sound,

speech,

touch)

and

services

which

help

manage

and

personalize

media.

Imagine

an

experiencemorelikeApple'sKnowledgeNavigator(circa1988),whereaconversational

intelligentagenthelpstoorganizeandsynthesizeyourworkorentertainmentor

personalschedule,allcompletelyintegratedandpersonalizedforyou.William

Luciw,ManagingDirector,ViewpointWestPartnersLLC


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27

Itstheunintendedconsequencesthatreallysurprise.

Atthepseudotrivial,handwaving,vaguegeneralizationlevel yes;manygadgetsandapplicationswillnotbethatsurprising,especiallywhenoneincludesthewildfantasies

proposedinscififiction. However,therearesubstantiveexamplesofwhatexistsnow,

thatwasn't

even

fantasized

10

20

years

ago.

Iexpect

we

will

see

many

innovations

that

almosteveryonewillfindcameoutoftheblue notablyincludingmanyunexpected,

unintendedresultsfrominnovationthatwasinitiatedforsomeentirelydifferent

purpose.(E.g.,itmightbesaidthattheforemost andcompletelyunintendedand

unpredicted resultoftheinventionofautomobileswasthecreationofsuburbswith

mostpeopleresidingfardistantfromwheretheywork.)JimWarren,longtimetech

entrepreneurandactivist

Indwellingtechnologyisthekindwiththegreatestimpact.

Thehottestgadgetsin2020willcertainlyinvolveextendingonessensesandonesbody.Infact,thishasbeenthecaseforallinventionssincehumansfirstmadestone

tools,andpaintedthewallsofcaves.Thatsbecausehumansarecharacterizednotonly

bytheirintelligenceandtheirabilitytospeak,butbytheircapacitytoextendtheir

senses,andtheirabilities,throughtheirtoolsandtechnologies.MichaelPolanyi,a

scientistandphilosopher,calledthisindwelling.Itisthroughindwellingthatthe

carpenterstoolbecomesanextensionofhisarm,andhehasthepowertopoundnails

throughwood.Thecomputersandsmartphonesoftodayaretosomedegree

extensionsofourselves,butnottotheextentthatahammerextendsacarpenter,acar

enlargesadriveroraplaneenlargesapilot.Somethingotherthanacomputerora

smartphonewilldothat.Hopefullythiswillhappenby2020.Ifnot,itwilleventually.

DocSearls,

co

author

of

The

Cluetrain

Manifesto

Ittakesagenerationtofigureoutwhichtechnologieshaverealimpactandwhicharejust

fads.

PeterDruckerwroteaboutthemajortransformationsinhistory.Theprintingpress,steamenginedrivenindustrialrevolution,andthethenemergingInternet.Hismain

point,thatIshare,isthatittakesageneration,about25years,forthenew'thing'to

realhaveitsimpact.Atfirstsocietyusesthenewtooltobetterdowhattheyhavebeen

doing.Thegenerationraisedwithitfindstotallynewthingsandwaystodothings.Thus

we

will

be

working

in

jobs

that

we

cannot

now

see

or

define.

Going

through

our

work

andplaydaysdoingthingswecannotnowenvisionorperhapswhichonlyafewnow

envision,buthavetroublegettingotherstoseetheirvision.EdLyell,former

memberoftheColoradoStateBoardofEducationandTelecommunicationAdvisory

Commission


28/48

28

Personaldatacloudswillemerge.

Ichoosetoseepersonalwebservertechnology(OperaUnite,FirefoxPOW,etc)asabreakthroughtechnology,sopeoplecanputtheirowndataintothecloudwithout

payingFlickrorwhomever.Itisthissortof'personaltechnology'Ibelievewill

characterize(what

we

now

call)

web

3.0

(and

not

3D,

or

semantic

web,

etc.).

So

my

dilemmaisthat,whilethesetechnologiesareprettyevidenttoday,itisnotclearthat

thepeopleIsuspectPewcountsasthesavviestinnovatorsarelookingatthem.SoI

pickoutoftheblueeventhough(Ithink)Icanseethemcomingfromamileaway.

StephenDownes,NationalResearchCouncil,Canada

Braininterfacesmightbeonthehorizon.

I'lltakeagamble:In2020(orperhapsacoupleyearslater)headsupdisplayswithbraincontrolinterfaceswillstarttoemergeasausefulwaytointeractwith

information.Kids,businesspeopleandacademicswillwantthem.Peoplewillbe

worriedthateveryoneis'tuningout',butotherswillsaythatthisisaninevitableand

obviousprogressionoftechnology.BernieHogan,OxfordInternetInstitute

Looktoemergingmarketsforoutofthebluechanges.

Dependsonwhatonemeansbyoutoftheblue IthinkalotofthehotgadgetsandappswillcomefromthedevelopingworldandnonWesternmarkets.Thusto

AmericansandEuropeanstheymayseemmoreoutofthebluethantoothers.

RebeccaMacKinnon,PrincetonCenterforInformationTechnologyPolicy

Thehealth

care

arena

will

be

ahot

growth

area.

Healthcarewillseenewapplications driveninpartbyfinancialnecessityandinpartbyexpandedpossibilities. Individualswillplayalargerroleintheirownhealthcare.

Wewillmonitorandtreatourselvesandelectroniccommunicationwithmedical

professionalswillbecommon.Theseapplicationswillbedrivenbycustomandlawas

wellasnewtechnologyandknowledge. Theymaybeinventedindevelopingnations

withverydifferentneedsandcustomsfromtheUS.Improvedbiologicaltechnologyand

knowledgewillalsodriveunexpectedapplicationsoftheInternet.LarryPress,

CaliforniaStateUniversity,DominguzHills


29/48

29

Part4:Areviewofresponsestoatensionpairabouttheevolutionofthe

architectureandstructureoftheInternet:WilltheInternetstillbedominated

bytheendtoendprinciple?

CURRENT

EXPERTS

N=371

CURRENT

TOTAL

N=895

% 63 61 Intheyearsbetweennowand2020,theInternetwillmostlyremain

atechnologybasedontheendtoendprinciplethatwasenvisioned

bytheInternetsfounders.Mostdisagreementsovertheway

informationflowsonlinewillberesolvedinfavorofaminimum

numberofrestrictionsovertheinformationavailableonlineand

themethodsbywhichpeopleaccessit.

29 33 Intheyearsbetweennowand2020,theInternetwillmostly

becomeatechnologywhereintermediaryinstitutionsthatcontrol

thearchitectureandsignificantamountsofcontentwillbe

successfulingainingtherighttomanageinformationandthe

methodbywhichpeopleaccessandshareit.

8 6 Didnotrespond

Respondentswereaskedtoexplaintheirchoiceandnoteorganizationsyouexpecttobemost

likelytoinfluencethefutureoftheInternetandshareyourviewoftheeffectsofthisbetween

nowand2020.

Anumber

of

respondents

pointed

out

that

some

of

the

key

issues

related

to

the

functioning

of

theinternetanditsarchitecturewerelaidoutbyJonathanZittraininhisTheFutureofthe

InternetAndHowtoStopit.2SeveralsaidtheirviewsmatchedZittrains:thattheinternets

basicopencharacteranditsabilitytofosterinnovationarethreatenedbytethered

appliancesandapplicationsthatarecontrolledbyvendors.

Whatfollowsisaselectionofthehundredsofwrittenelaborationsandsomeoftherecurring

themesinthoseanswers:

Thereistoomuchgoodhistoryandgoodexperiencewiththeendtoendinternettoseeit

largelyoverturned.Opennesshasitsownvirtuesandthosewhoresistitwillfallbehindthose

whoenable

it.

Users

will

rise

up

if

there

are

too

many

restrictions

that

get

in

the

way

of

the

informationtheywantandthecontenttheywanttocreate.

2Zittrain,Jonathan.TheFutureoftheInternetAndHowtoStopIt.CaravanBooks.2008.Note:Zittrainisonthe

advisoryboardofthePewResearchCentersInternet&AmericanLifeProject.


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30

TheNetuserswillbandtogethertokeeptheNetopen.Theywillcontinuetochooseopenoverclosedandgated.JerryBerman,chair,CenterforDemocracyand

Technology

Thereistoomuchatstaketoallowintermediariestocontrolthepipe.PengHwaAng,director,SingaporeInternetResearchCenter

Incumbentnetworkoperatorsinsomenationswillsucceedinassertingincreasedcontroloverapplications,but,inthelongrun,theywillbeatadisadvantage.Thiswill

varyfromnationtonation,andthosewhichviewtheInternetasbasicinfrastructure

andacttobalancepublicinterestandqualityoflifealongwiththereturnon

investmentofnetworkoperatorswillbeatanadvantageinthefuture.Thisisrelatedto

theissueofownership. Thequestionisnotwhetherwewillhaveubiquitoushigh

speednetworksinthefuture,thequestioniswhowillownandcontrolthem private

corporations,government,users? Ownership/controlwillbedisbursedamongamixof

organizationseachatdifferentnetworklevels.LarryPress,CaliforniaState

University,DominguzHills

Therearelargenumbersofpeopleworkingtoprotecttheendtoendprinciplewithintheconfinesoforganizedstructures(ICANN)andoutsideofformalvenues(alternate

roots).ElainePruis,VPforclientservicesofMinds+MachinesandICANNparticipant

ItseemstomeinevitablethatnationstateswillattempttoexertmorecontrolovertheInternet. However,Ithinkthatthesewillberelativelysmallchanges,sothatthe

internetwillremainrelativelyfree.HalVarian,Google,chiefeconomist

Thiswillbeanongoingdebate,particularlywhentraditionalorganizationsseetheInternetencroachingontheirlegitimacyandrelevanceintheInternetAge. These

groupswillflailaroundtoprotecttheirbusinessmodelsandperceivedrelevance,but

therewillbeequallypowerfulcapabilitiesemergingfromtheInternetcommunitythat

willbreakthrough/counterthosenewcontrols/restrictionsontheflowsof

information.Richard

Forno,

Software

Engineering

Institute,

Carnegie

Mellon

University

Thosewhotooktheoppositeviewwerenotnecessarilyhappyaboutit,buttheyarguedthere

aretoomanypowerfulforcespushingtowardsmorecontroloftheinternetfortheendto

endprincipletosurvive.Governmentsandbusinesseshaveallkindsofreasonstocontrol

whathappensonline.

GiveneventsinChinaandIran,Iamgoingtotakearare(forme)pessimisticposition.Theforcesofcentralcontrol,politicallyandeconomically,aremovingtorecentralize

the

power

they

lost

when

the

Internet

grew

explosively.

The

net

neutrality

debate

in

theUSAseemstotemporarilyhaverestrainedthecableandtelcosfromexerting

centralizedcontroloverthearchitecture,butwhoknowswhatwillhappenpolitically

withfutureadministrations?Unlessasufficientnumberofpeopleresist,Iseemoreand

morecontrolandintermediationbeingforceduponus.HowardRheingold,author

ofseveralprominentbooksontechnology,teacheratStanfordUniversityand

UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley


31/48

31

IhopefortheegalitarianselectionI'vemade.Ifearthatthegreedofthefewerandfewer,moreandmorepowerfulconglomerates,cartels,multinationalsand

monopolies,willallowthemtousetheirpowerovergovernmenttochokethepowerof

enduserstoaccessandsharethepowerfulbenefitsofdifferenttime,differentplace,

nearinstantaneous,egalitarian/equalitariancommunications.JimWarren,

longtimetech

entrepreneur

and

activist

MuchasIwanttheendtoendprincipletoremainIseeitdying.Mostuserstoday,andmostvendorsofnetworkservices,perceivethenetasasystemofapplicationsnot

asasystemthattransportspackets.Ibelievethattheinternetisheadedtowardsbeing

alumpynetworkmoreliketheseveralmobilephonenetworksintheU.S.thanthe

uniforminternetoftoday.Therearealotofpressurestodrivethislumpiness We've

gotthedesireofvendorstolockincustomers,wehavenationalcompetitionsand

firewalls,wehaveresourcescarcity(suchasIPv4addressesthataredrivingthenetto

partitionvianetworkaddresstranslation,NAT,devices)[PS,IbelievethatIPv6may

proveadud],reactiontoexcessivelyheavyregulatorysystemssuchasICANN,etc.

KarlAuerbach,ChiefTechnologyOfficer,InterWorkingLabs,Inc

Thelockeddownfutureismorerealisticasthingsstandnow.We'vegotaverycautiousgovernment,aninternationalmovementtowardsgreatercontrol,andapliant

public. Iwishthiswasn'tthecase.SusanCrawford,formermemberofPresident

ObamasNationalEconomicCouncil,nowonthelawfacultyattheUniversityof

Michigan

Astheinternetbecomesubiquitousandincreasinglyimportantincommerceandpolitics,itwillbecomeincreasinglyimportantandprofitabletocontrolit. Controlwill

beexertedthroughcontrolofsystemsandarchitectures,networks,pointsofaccess,

platformsforsharing,andcontent.Dedemocratizationprocessesarecurrentlyinthe

ascendancyintheUSandothernationsandthesepoliticaltrendsareconduciveto

increasedcontrol

by

governments

and

corporations

over

all

aspects

of

the

internet.

As

inpolitics,thedemocratization(anddedemocratization)oftheinternetisnotlinear.

Butthetrendoverthenextdecadewillbededemocratization.Wealreadyseethisin

theattemptsbyChinaandIrantocontrolaccessandcontentandinthesocalled

HomelandSecuritylegislationintheUStomonitorinternetactivity.Benjamin

MordecaiBenBaruch,marketresearcherandconsultanttononprofits

Therewillbealternativenetworksforcompaniesandindividualsthatprefertohaveamore

controlledenvironmentforsharingandconsumingcontent.

A

number

of

companies

have

built

global

IP

networks

that

are

not

the

Public

Internet,

butprovidesimilarca

future of internet 2010 - aaas paper

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