future of lake wingra meeting university of wisconsin may 9, 2007
TRANSCRIPT
Future of Lake Wingra Meeting
University of Wisconsin
May 9, 2007
Welcome!Steve Carpenter, Center for Limnology
Overview
Oonsie Biggs, Center for Limnology
Scenarios for the future of Lake Wingra
9 May 2007
Future of Lake Wingra?
Why think about the future?
Lake Wingra is a community resource
FOLW is developing goals for the watershed in collaboration with the community
Future changes in the greater Madison area and beyond will impact our ability to meet the goals for Lake Wingra
TODAY
2035FOLW strategies
Zoo 955: Sketch future scenarios
FOLW: Develop goals & strategies
Scenario analysis
• One approach to thinking about the future
• Scenarios are not predictions!
• Scenarios are plausible stories that expand our understanding of what the future might bring
Scenarios approach
Scenarios can be qualitative and/or quantitative
Time
Today
Process
3 Feb FOLW goals
public meeting
7 FebSystems analysis
brainstorming session
2 MarchScenarios workshop with
invited stakeholders to develop draft scenario storylines
MarchSynthesis of scenario
workshop & drafting of 4 selected storylines
Early AprilIndividual feedback
interviews with stakeholders
Late AprilScenario revisions &
drafting of final report
9 MayPresentation of
scenarios to FOLW
Goals for Lake Wingra
Friends of Lake Wingra
Jim Lorman and Anne Forbes
Jim Lorman and Anne Forbes
Scope of the Project
Matt Van de Bogert, Center for Limnology
System Analysis Overview
Lake Wingra
Economic
Social
Political
Ecological
Overview of systems analysis workshop
• Goals included:
• Define the system, its components, and the connections between them
Overview of systems analysis workshop
• Goals included:
• Define the time horizon and frequency of projection
Overview of systems analysis workshop
• Goals included:
• Identify key inputs and drivers to the system
Other lakes: Mendota, Monona
Physical, chemical, biological characteristics: water clarity, bacteria, algae, nutrients, macrophytes, fish community, migratory birds, etc.
Shore and adjacent wetlands
Watershed
City of Madison
Lake Wingra
City Government
Businesses; investment;
growth
Land use: development,
infilling, sprawl, construction
Education Institutions: Edgewood, UW-Madison,
UW-Arboretum.
Infrastructure: roads, storm sewers, sanitary sewer, etc.
Hydrology Surface-water runoff, phosphorus, salt, etc; groundwater depletion,
recharge
recreation, resource use, ecosystem services
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People: individuals, households, families, taxpayers, voters
User groups: anglers, swimmers, boaters, young explorers, bikers, hikers, skiers
Organizations: neighborhoods, fishing or boating clubs, Friends of Lake Wingra, others
City of Madison…The Social-Ecological System
City of Madison
DANE COUNTY
STATE OF WISCONSIN
UNITED STATES
THE WORLD
External components, drivers, and inputs of the system
Key Uncertainties
-Invasive species
-Economy
-Human health
Uncontrollable
-U.S. economy
-National security
-Climate change
No Alternative
-Climate change
Climate change
Invasive species
Technological innovations
U.S. economyNational security
Transportation
L & W commission
State legislation
State economy
Human health; disease
State agencies (e.g., DNR)
Federal agencies (e.g., EPA) National environmental awareness & practices
Federal legislation
(From the system level)
Demographic changes
Current Condition of Lake Wingra
Matt Diebel, Center for Limnology
Lake Wingra in 2007
Lake Wingra Watershed
Odana Golf Course
Arboretum
Vilas Park
Westgate Mall
Edgewood Campus
Lake Wingra
Lake Wingra Watershed
Lake Wingra
Hydrology
Direct Precipitation
Surface Runoff
Groundwater Inflow
PollutantsSediment increase 500%
Phosphorus increase 1000%
Chloride increase 1500%
Poor Water Quality
•Frequent algae blooms
•Secchi depth 0.7 m
Native plant communities remain but are threatened by invasive species
Scenarios Overview
Amy Kamarainen, Center for Limnology
Big Green Brother Garden State
C-CLEARExotic Exchange
Big Green BrotherJennifer Schmitz, Center for Limnology
2010: City supports grassroots efforts with new tax incentives
2015: City and State support open space initiatives to the tune of $1 million
2022: “What was once viewed as an opportunity for grassroots initiatives is now seen as big
government,” reflects resident.
2029: Shorter winters and ice accidents lead to new safety regulations
2029: Madison experiences eighth consecutive summer of below average rainfall
2033: County permits extraction of water from the Yahara lakes
2035 – Lake Wingra goals eclipsed by top community priorities
2033 - City begins construction of multi-million dollar water park
Garden StateDavid Zaks
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment
2012: Rain gardens and permeable blacktop used to recharge groundwater and
reduce sediment loads
2016: Wisconsin Center for Green Technology built on site formerly known as the Arboretum
2020: Carp-a-thon mobilizes disparate
community groups and effectively controls the
Common carp population
2022: Population growth leads to loss of dark sky certification
2030: Wisconsin Center for Green Technology stock high-protein fish strain in Lake Wingra
C-CLEARChris Uejio
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment
Community Coalition for Lake Ecology and Recreation (C-
CLEAR)
2015: “Success breeds success”• New individuals &
organizations join Friends of Lake Wingra
• “Friends” generate & leverage more resources
• Pressure local government to improve water quality
2015-2025: “Gridlock”• Community change: Older, more culturally &
geographically diverse
• Violent conflict between anglers and fisher people
• C-CLEAR positively broadens access, outreach & education
2015-2025: “Gridlock” (cont.)
• Dane county population & power grows; gridlock over environmental policy ensues
• Geographically broader coalition organizes across watershed; Yahara-CLEAR
• Less effort focused locally on original goals
2025-2035: “Sustainable Organizing”
• Fracture: members leave & resume working locally
• Water quality steadily improved, but slower than members hoped
• Uncertainty over the coalition’s future
Exotic ExchangeBrian Weidel, Center for Limnology
BEFORE AFTER
2010… common carp 2010… common carp virtually eliminatedvirtually eliminated
Panfish Musky
2017…silver carp invade2017…silver carp invade
Panfish MuskyCarp
20222022
20332033
Silver Carp Virus
Discussion Questions
Matt Kornis, Center for Limnology
Do any scenarios seem particularly likely or unlikely?
Do any of the scenarios make you think differently about Lake Wingra’s future?
What can you do now to make Lake Wingra a better resource for you and your neighbors?
What do you see as priorities for managing Lake Wingra?
What’s Next?Steve Carpenter, Center for Limnology