future of technology - jan 2008 update
DESCRIPTION
What will be the next Internet? 11 revolutionary technologies are shaping the future: molecular nanotechnology, biotechnology and personalized medicine, synthetic biology, life extension and anti-aging therapies, robotics, artificial intelligence, intelligence augmentation, virtual reality, fabbing, quantum computing and affordable space launch. This is a January 2008 update to the similar October 2007 presentation.TRANSCRIPT
The Future of Technology
January 2008
Melanie SwanMS Futures Group
Palo Alto, CA415-505-4426
[email protected]//www.melanieswan.com
2 The Future of Technology
Summary
Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous
The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change
Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software faces challenges
Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet
Image: Fausto de Martini
3 The Future of Technology
Paradigms of growth and change
Linear Economic, demographic, life span phenomena
Exponential Technology: processors, memory, storage,
communications, Facebook applications
Discontinuous Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons,
satellites, computers, Internet, globalization Impossible to predict
• Evaluate rapid transition time and doubling capability• Cascading technology advances from adjacent areas
Exponential
Discontinuous
Linear
4 The Future of Technology
The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first
What will be the next Internet?
Artificial Intelligence
Molecular Nanotechnology
Anti-agingTherapies
Metaverse Technologies
Quantum Computing
Robotics
IntelligenceAugmentation
Personalized Medicine Affordable
Space Launch
Fabbing
Synthetic Biology
5 The Future of Technology
Evolution of computation
Future of computing New materials 3d circuits Quantum computing Molecular electronics Optical computing DNA computing
Electro-mechanical
Relay Vacuum tube
Transistor Integrated circuit
?
Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/
6 The Future of Technology
Extensibility of Moore’s Law
Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/
Transistors per microprocessorPenryn
45 nm, 410-800m transistors
Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors
7 The Future of Technology
Current semiconductor advancements
Source: http://www.siliconvalleysleuth.com/2007/01/a_look_inside_i.html
Standard Silicon Transistor
High-k + Metal Gate Transistor
Historical semiconductors 65nm+
Intel Penryn 45nm chip, shipping fall 2007
MetalGate
High-kInsulator
Silicon substrate
DrainDrain SourceSource
Silicon substrate
SiO2
Insulator
8 The Future of Technology
ITRS semiconductor roadmap leads the way
Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf
2009
32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011, molecular manufacturing needed for 10 nm
9 The Future of Technology
Software remains challenging
Abstract, difficult to measure Doubling each 6-10 years Wirth’s law: “Software gets slower faster than
hardware gets faster”
Failure of large projects (FAA, CIA) 19 m programmers worldwide in 20101
Possible improvements Open source vs. proprietary systems Interoperability testing Standards, reusable modules Web 2.0 software for the enterprise Software to write software
1Source: http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P8481
Lady Ada Lovelace
10 The Future of Technology
Arms race for the future of intelligence
Machine Human Blue Gene/L 596 teraFLOPS (>596 trillion
IPS) and 74 TB memory1
Unlimited operational/build knowledge Quick upgrade cycles: performance
capability doubling every 18 months Linear, Von Neumann architecture Understands rigid language Special purpose problem solving (Deep
Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) Metal chassis, easy to backup
An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory2
Limited operational/build knowledge Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year
evolutionary adaptations Massively parallel architecture Understands flexible, fuzzy language General purpose problem solving,
works fine in new situations Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible
1Source: Fastest Supercomputer, November 2007, http://www.top500.org/system/89682Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html
11 The Future of Technology
Artificial intelligence: current status
Approaches Symbolic, statistical, evolutionary algorithms, learning
algorithms, mechanistic, hybrid
Current initiatives Narrow AI: DARPA, corporate Strong AI: startups
Nearer-term applications Auditory, visual, transportation
Format Robotic Distributed Virtual Non-corporeal
DGC: Boss, 2007
12 The Future of Technology
Molecular nanotechnology
Definition 3D atomically precise placement
Scale Human hair: 80,000 nm Limit of human vision: 10,000 nm Virus: 50 nm, DNA: 2 nm Atom 0.1 nm
Tools Microscopy Mills, motors
Image sources: http://www.imm.org, http://www.rfreitas.com,http://www.foresight.org, http://www.e-drexler.org
13 The Future of Technology
Fabbing
Community fabs MIT Fab Labs Make, TechShop
Personal 3d printing Fab@Home, RepRap, Evil
Personal manufacturing Ponoko Fabjectory
Cornell Fab@Home
RepRap
Evil LabsFabjectory
14 The Future of Technology
Biotechnology
Biology: information science Genomics
DNA Sequencing DNA Synthesizing Variation: SNPs
Proteomics, other “-omics”
Sources: http://www.economist.com/background/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7854314, http://www.molsci.org/%7Ercarlson/Carlson_Pace_and_Prolif.pdf
DNA SynthesizerVariation: SNP
15 The Future of Technology
Anti-aging and radical life extension
Aging is a pathology Immortality is not hubristic and unnatural
Aubrey de Grey: Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS) Nucleic and mitochondrial mutations Intracellular and extracellular junk Cell loss and senescence Extracellular crosslinks
Solutions and escape velocity Mutation anti-suppressors Bioremediation Cell strengthening
Real age estimation tests0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
U.S. Life Expectancy, 1850 – 2050e83
7769
50
39
Research to repair and reverse the damage of aging
The Methuselah Foundation
Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html
Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/population-health/variable-379.htmlhttp://www.realage.com http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html
16 The Future of Technology
Metaverse technologies
Demand for streaming video, data visualization, simulation and 3D data display
Detailed reality capture Augmented reality Blended reality Alternate reality Virtual worlds Virtual reality 2.0
Wild Divine NTT’s Aromatic Display
IBM’s Virtual NOC LAX Air Traffic Data 3D Stock Charts
Heads-up Display Data Overlay Blended Reality Conference
Google Earth GPS Life-logging rig
17 The Future of Technology
Affordable space launch
Government Regular missions New participants Spaceport development
Commercial Rocket launch Space elevator
Prizes NASA Centennial Challenges X Prize Foundation
China’s Chang’e-1
Space Elevator and Climber Competition
SpaceX
Spaceport America, NM
Google Lunar X Prize
Space-based Solar Power
Virgin Galactic
18 The Future of Technology
The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first
What will be the next Internet?
Artificial Intelligence
Molecular Nanotechnology
Anti-agingTherapies
Metaverse Technologies
Quantum Computing
Robotics
IntelligenceAugmentation
Personalized Medicine Affordable
Space Launch
Fabbing
Synthetic Biology
19 The Future of Technology
Summary
Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous
The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change
Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software faces challenges
Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet
Thank you
Melanie SwanMS Futures Group
Palo Alto, CA415-505-4426
[email protected]//www.melanieswan.com
Slides: http//www.melanieswan.com/presentations
Provided under an open source Creative Commons 3.0 licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/