future of the gold mining industry 04-17-2012

8/2/2019 Future of the Gold Mining Industry 04-17-2012

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Outlook for the Gold MiningIndustry

April 17, 2012


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Outline of Presentation

Forward looking statement

Who is AuRico?

Young Davidson Update

Gold Industry

Macro Economic Outlook

Gold Price,

support, volatility and replacement costs

Gold vs Gold Stocks

Current Playing Field

Investors Perspective

Miners Perspective

Conclusions

2


3/26


4/26

Capital Markets Profile

Current cash position of $113.1M2

Market Capitalization of $2.5B3

Credit Facility of up to US$100M

NYSE and TSX listings provide liquid shares Avg. ~3.5M shares traded daily

1. Excluding convertible debentures2. As of March 31, 20123. As of Apri l 4, 2012

Analyst Coverage

Company Analyst

BMO Nesbitt Burns David Haughton

Canaccord Genuity Rahul Paul

CIBC Brian Quast

Credit Suisse Anita Soni

Dahlman Rose Adam P. Graf

Desjardins Securities Brian Christie

Dundee Securities Ron Stewart

GMP Securities Craig West

Mackie Research Barry Allan

Macquarie Securities Tony Lesiak

Merrill Lynch Mike Parkin

Scotia Capital Trevor Turnbull

TD Newcrest Steven Green

UBS Dan Rollins

Capital Structure1,2

Issued and Outstandingshares

281.8M

Options 9.4M

Warrants & DSUs 1.8M

Fully Diluted 293.0M

Buy Hold

Average Target Price: $14.00 4


5/26

Recent History

First gold pour at Young-Davidson imminent (April 2012)

Increased production by 50% and revenues by 89% over 2010

Divesture of Australian Operations (Expected to close by May 1)

Began mill commissioning and ore processing at Young-Davidson (March2012)

Increased 2011 reserves and resources

199% increase in Proven and Probable reserves and 350% increase in Measured andIndicated resources over 2010

Pre-production development commences at Young-Davidson (November

2011)

Acquisition of Northgate Minerals and the Young-Davidson Asset(October 2011)

Acquisition of Capital Gold Corporation (April 2011)5


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A Leading Producer Focused on Quality Assets in North America

Strong Portfolio of Properties

Young-Davidson

El Chanate

Ocampo

El CuboOrionGuadalupe y Calvo

Kemess

1. Gold equivalent production and cash costs are based on a gold equivalency ratio of 55:1 unless otherwise indicated.2. Production and cash costs for the Ocampo mine, El Cubo mine, and on a consolidated basis are calculated on a per gold equivalent ounce basis.

3. Cash costs for the Young-Davidson and El Chanate mines are calculated on a per gold ounce basis, using by-product revenues as a cost credit. Production includes gold ounces only.4. Resource inclusive of reserves plus measured and indicated resources. Exclusive of inferred resources.5. Represents gold or gold equivalent grade as per technical reports and company disclosure.6. Refer to the Appendix for complete reserve and resource information.

AuRico N.A. Mineral Inventory2P + M&I: 13.3M gold eq. oz.1

Inferred: 4.4M gold eq. oz.1

Young-Davidson, Canada2012 Production Gold Oz. 65-75k

2012 Cash Costs per gold oz.3 $450-$550

2011 Resource (000s oz Au)4 4,787

Grade (Au g/t)5 2.43

2011 Inferred Resource 1,431


Ocampo, Mexico2012 Production Gold eq. oz.1 180-200k

2012 Cash Costs per gold eq. oz.1,2 $465-$495

2011 Resource (000s oz Aue)1,4 2,906

Grade (Aue g/t)1,5 0.85



El Chanate, Mexico2012 Production Gold Oz. 78-88k

2012 Cash Costs per gold oz.3 $450-480

2011 Resource (000s oz Au)4 1,323


2011 Inferred Resource 8

Grade (Au g/t)1,5 0.46

El Cubo, Mexico

2012 Production Gold eq. oz.1 47-57k

2012 Cash Costs per gold eq. oz.1,2 $750-$780

2011 Resource (000s oz Aue)1,4 1,077



Grade (Aue g/t)1,5

4.46

2011 2P Mineral Reserves by Mine(in thousands of gold equivalent ounces6)

Young-Davidson 3,831

Ocampo 2,384

El Chanate 1,285

El Cubo 657

Total Reserves 8,157

6


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Three Year Production Profile

Ocampo

El Chanate

El Cubo

Young-Davidson

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Peer-leading Growth Profile2012E 2013E 2014E

Production(000s)1

Gold eq. Oz. Gold eq. Oz. Gold eq. Oz.

Ocampo 180-200 180-205 210-245

Chanate 78-88 75-85 75-95

El Cubo 47-57 50-70 50-70

Young Davidson 65-75 135-155 165-190

Total 323-363 390-445 450-530

2012E 2013E 2014E

Cash Costs2 per gold eq. oz. per gold eq. oz. per gold eq. oz.

Ocampo $465-$495 $550-$600 $500-$550

Chanate $450-$480 $455-$485 $480-$510

El Cubo $750-$780 $600-$700 $600-$700

Young Davidson $450-$550 $500-$550 $460-$510

Total $465-$490 $515-$565 $480-$530

2012E 2013E 2014E

Capex* US$ (millions) US$ (millions) US$ (millions)

Ocampo $36-$50 $60-$70 $45-60

Chanate $45-$49 $30-$40 $35-$45

El Cubo $17-$21 $10-$20 $10-$20

Young Davidson $173-$187 $100-$130 $50-$65

Total $254-$286 $190-$240 $130-$170

(1)Gold equivalent ounces include silver ounces produced and sold converted to a gold equivalentbased on a ratio of 55:1.

(2)Production and Cash costs for the Ocampo mine, the El Cubo mine and on a consolidated basis arecalculated on a per gold equivalent ounce basis. Cash costs for the El Chanate mine are calculatedon a per gold ounce basis, using by-product revenues as a cost credit.

*Excludes exploration

1.4

0.9

1.5

1.8

2.1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Production per 1,000 SharesGold eq. (realized)

8


9/26

Young-Davidson Historic Perspective

9

Historic Production from underground gold minesin Timmins and Kirkland Lake (~108 M Oz.)

Five mines with greater than 5 million ounces

production, Young-Davidson is likely to be the sixth

0

5

10

15

20

Hollinger

Dome

McIntyre

KerrAddison

Lakeshore

Young-Davidson

WrightHargreaves

Pamour

TeckHughes

Macassa

Aunor

HoylePond

Hallnor

Sylvanite

Preston

UpperCanada

Paymaster

Coniarium

MOz.

Hisotrical Production YD P&P YD M&I YD Inferred


10/26

Rich Tradition - History

Site of two former producers

20+ years in operation

+1,200 tpd avg. production rate

Early pioneers of bulk mining

+1 million tonne stopes underground

10

Period Mine TonnesGrade

(g/tonne)

Produced Oz

1934 to 1957 YD 5,653,000 3.21 585,000

1934 to 1954 MCM 3,205,000 3.66 378,000

1981 to 1982 MCM 96,400 2.36 7,300

Total 8,954,400 3.37 970,300

Young-Davidson Mine (YD)Young-Davidson Mine (YD) Matachewan Consolidated Mine (MCM)Matachewan Consolidated Mine (MCM)

Mined ~9 million tonnes andproduced 970,000 ounces

Average realized grade of 3.37 g/tonne


11/26

YD Proven & Probable Reserves

2,819

3,831

370

642

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Feasibility YD West Mining Method EOY 2011

AuKoz

36% Reserve Increase of +1 Million Gold Ounces

YD West converted to reserves, some indicated re-classified as inferred Paste backfill allows for conversion of mining methods

Conversion to long-hole mining - transverse & longitudinal stoping

Mining recoveries improvement from ~72% to 92%

Dilution improves from 15% to


12/26

YD West Zone

Thickest resource on property (30 m avg);

potential lowest cost per ounce mining zone

Open at depth

Unexplored

Drilling in 2012 will focus on extending the YD West Zone

Significant increasein resources (Sept 2011)

Addition of+ 1 million ounces to Provenand Probable reserves (Dec 31, 2011)

12


13/26

Young-Davidson Construction Update

Mill Building

Ore Bins

Northgate Shaft115 kV Substation

13


14/26

As of April 2012 the following major project milestones have been achieved:

Mill process systems required for gold pour are virtually complete

Wet commissioning is complete and ore processing of law-grade stockpiles began

March 22

Leach tanks have been filled, carbon and cyanide have been added

S02 plant for cyanide destruction is in the final commissioning stage

Concrete ore bins are constructed to final height

Construction of the ore and waste bins at the Northgate shaft is progressing well

Ground support for the first leg of the Northgate shaft has commenced and reached

a depth of 50 metres

Open pit mining rates during March averaged 22,870 tonnes per day of ore andwaste with a target of 35,000 tonnes per day by the end of Q2

700,000 ore tonnes (almost 4 months mill feed) has already been stockpiled

Young-Davidson Construction Update

14


15/26

Mill Building Interior

Northgate Headframe

Temporary Ore Feed Facility

Water Tanks and Carbon in Leach Circuit


16/26

16

Key macro-economic themes:Key macro-economic themes:

2012 average global growth of 3.5%

2013 average global growth of 4.2%

2012 average global inflation of 3.7%

Macro-Economic Snapshot2012 A year of modest global growth and recovery

Continued moderate US growth

Only a mild recession in Europe

Slower growth in China (~8% in 12 and 13)

Source: Thomson Reuters DataStream, CS GDP growth forecast

-12

-10

-8

-6-4

-2

0

2

4

1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 (E)

QoQ% ann. rate

YoY%

Forecast

%

Euro zone contractionEuro zone contraction

12: 0.0%13: 1.7%

Source: IMF, Credit Suisse

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

1985-2010 average growth rate @ 3.5%

2003-07 average growth rate @ 4.8%

%

Muted global growth driven by emerging marketsMuted global growth driven by emerging markets

12: 3.5%13: 4.2%

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, CS GDP growth forecast

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 (E)

QoQ% ann. rateYoY%

Forecast

%

-12

Moderate US growthModerate US growth

12: 2.2%13: 2.0%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, CS GDP growth forecast

3

6

9

12

15

1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 (E)

YoY%

Forecast

%

Soft landing in ChinaSoft landing in China

12: 8.0%13: 8.2%


17/26

Gold Price Support

17

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,4001,600

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

2006 C1 cash costs

2011E C1 cash costs

Increased industry cost pressuresIncreased industry cost pressures Central Banks diversifying away from USD into goldCentral Banks diversifying away from USD into gold

Majority of new gold investment in gold ETFs / bullionMajority of new gold investment in gold ETFs / bullion Continued Eurozone instability & contractionContinued Eurozone instability & contraction

LT gold price: US$ 1,194/oz

US$ 564/oz(2)

US$ 298/oz(2)

2007 Avg Current Chg

USD/CAD 1.07 1.00 (7.1%)

USD/EUR 0.73 0.75 2.8%

USD/CHF 1.20 0.91 (24.5%)

USD/GBP 0.50 0.64 27.5%

USD/HKD 7.80 7.76 (0.6%)

USD/JPY 117.76 80.20 (31.9%)

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12

0

10

20

30

40

50GLD ETF holdings (million units)Gold price (US$/oz)

68%102%

120%158%

-0.5%-1.8%

1.1%

-2.0% -2.2%

1.3%

-1.7%

1.6%

Greece Italy Portugal Spain

Debt as a % of GDP IMF revisions to 2012E GDP growth

Note: C1 cash cost represents the costs for mining, processing and handling ore and mined products; as well as administration and accounting overhead.

It does not include capital costs for exploration, mine development or processing mill capital works. It includes net proceeds from by-product credits.It does not include the cost of royalties.

(1) 2012E real GDP growth forecasts as of April 2011 & January 2012 for Italy and Spain; forecasts as of April & September 2011 for Greece andPortugal (IMF World Economic Outlook).

(2) Represents Brook Hunt average C1 cash costs for 2006 & 2011E.

Significant cash cost inflation over the past 5 years

Focus on capital preservation driving physical gold demand

US dollar and Euro losing reserve currency status

Ongoing European debt crisis

Key gold themes: 2012 & 2013 analyst consensus: US$1,820/ozKey gold themes: 2012 & 2013 analyst consensus: US$1,820/oz

600

358457

1054

558

874

China India Russia

2008 Current

Goldholdings(Tonnes)


18/26

18

Gold Price Volatility

Volatility ratio between S&P 500 and Gold (US$/oz)Volatility ratio between S&P 500 and Gold (US$/oz)

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Counsel. Computed using 63-day rolling volatilities on each of the assets.

September 2011

S&P more volatile

Gold more volatile

S&P 500 vs. gold volatility ratio

Golds volatility rose less than S&P 500 volatility in H211

Period of rebalancing portfolios results in increased volatility

Long term low correlation to equities

Underpins status as a portfolio diversifier

Federal Open Markets Committee meeting sparked USD rally

Sentiment-driven collapse in risk appetite EU default fears

Rebalancing of positions and short-covering

Gold returns used to cover losses

What happened in September 2011?What happened in September 2011? Gold volatility is overstatedGold volatility is overstated

Rebalancing portfolios in times of panicresults in gold volatilityRebalancing portfolios in times of panicresults in gold volatility


19/26

5.0x

10.0x

15.0x

20.0x

25.0x

30.0x

35.0x

Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

AuRico Senior producers Intermediate producersJunior producers / developers Royalties Gold Price

Average (NTM EBITDA) (1)2 yr 1 yr 6-mo Current

AuRico 5.4x 5.1x 4.5x 4.9x

Senior producers 8.1x 7.4x 6.8x 7.1x

Intermediate producers 9.4x 8.1x 7.1x 7.2x

Junior producers / developers 6.4x 5.4x 4.8x 5.1x

Royalties 14.2x 14.0x 14.0x 14.0x

Equities failing to keep pace with the gold price asinvestors focus on preservation of capital

Historical EV / EBITDA (next twelve months) summary (1)Historical EV / EBITDA (next twelve months) summary (1)

EV/NTMEBITDAmultiple

Goldprice(US$/oz)

Dislocation between the valuation of gold equities and gold price performance

Declining equity valuation multiples despite gold price strength

Declining gold equity multiples amidst gold price strength

(1) Next Twelve Months (NTM) EBITDA represents monthly time-weighted annual EBITDA estimates.Senior producers: Barrick, Newmont, Kinross, Newcrest, Goldcorp, AngloGold, Yamana.

Intermediate producers: Gold Fields, Zijin, Eldorado, Randgold, Buenaventura, AEM, IAMGOLD, Harmony, Centerra, New Gold, Osisko, Alacer, African Barrick, Allied Nevada, Semafo, Alamos,European Goldfields, Perseus, Kirkland Lake, B2Gold, Medusa, Dundee Precious, High River, Aurizon.Junior producers / developers: Detour, Nevsun, Kingsgate, Colossus, Guyana, Rainy River, Argonaut, Archipelago, Jaguar, Torex, Lake Shore, Romarco, Golden Star, Chesapeake,Great Basin, Gryphon, ITH, Ampella, Timmins, Yukon-Nevada, Cluff, Kula, Victoria.

Royalties: Franco-Nevada, Royal Gold.

Commentary:Commentary:

Source: Factset.

19


20/26

Current Gold Playing Field

20

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Barric

k

Goldcorp

Newmon

t

Newcres

t

AngloGold

Yaman

a

Kinros

s

GoldFields

Randgol

d

Buenaventu

ra

Eldorad

o

IAMGOLD

AEM

Polymetal

Harmon

y

NewGold

Centerr

a

Osisko

AlliedNV

Af.Barric

k

Detou

r

Alace

r

AuRic

o

Alamo

s

Euro.Gfd

s

Gabrie

l

Semaf

o

Centam

in

B2Gold

Minefinder

s

Dunde

e

Medus

a

KirklandLak

e

Aurizo

n

Kingsgate

Tore

x

Independ'c

e

Argonau

t

Nevsu

n

Colossu

s

Guyan

a

LakeShor

e

RainyRive

r

Romarc

o

Archipelag

o

Jaguar

GoldenSta

r

ITH

Grypho

n

GreatBasin

Chesapeak

e

Timmin

s

AlliedGold

Yukon-NV

Ampell

a

Cluf

f

Victori

a

Kula

Franco-N

V

RoyalGold

What percentage of a stock's movement is explained by movements in the gold price? (R-squared)(1)

AuRico Barrick Goldcorp Newmont Kinross Yamana Minefinders Agnico New Gold Alamos Franco-NV Royal Gold

2011 0.51 0.11 0.50 0.51 0.01 0.74 0.53 0.18 0.69 0.20 0.90 0.90

2010 0.23 0.91 0.66 0.71 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.87 0.89 0.84 0.74 0.54

2009 0.75 0.23 0.63 0.75 0.02 0.81 0.60 0.12 0.65 0.71 0.32 0.58

2008 0.41 0.77 0.78 0.68 0.73 0.74 0.67 0.78 0.57 0.38 0.56 0.00

2007 0.47 0.71 0.33 0.69 0.58 0.09 0.02 0.47 0.43 0.25 NA 0.04

Source: FactSet.

Note: R2

explains how much percentage wise a stocks movement is determined by movements in the gold price.(1) Based on share prices of primary listings.

(2) Not pro-forma for European Goldfields transaction.

Market capitalization of gold companiesMarket capitalization of gold companies

(US$MM)

The lack of quality gold discoveries of scale will likely lead to gold seniors looking to the intermediate sector to create agrowth profile

Average Market Value:~$28 billion

Average Market Value:~$4 billion

Average Market Value:~$600 million

Average Market Value:~$5Bn

(2)

(2)


21/26

Relative Valuation of Gold and Silver Producers

EV / FY2012E EBITDAEV / FY2012E EBITDA

Price / FY2012E Cash flowPrice / FY2012E Cash flow

Source: FactSet.Note: I/B/E/S estimates based on fiscal year end. *Tables provided by Credit Suisse.

Senior Intermediate Junior Silver

Seniors are not being afforded premium multiples relative to intermediates Royalties trade at a premium

Commentary:Commentary:

Senior Intermediate Junior Silver

Royalties

Royalties

1

3.4x

1

3.1x

10

.5x

7.6x7.3x7.2x

5.5x

17.6x

15.1x

14.3x

1

3.5x

1

2.9x

12.5x

12.1x

10.4x

9.3

x

9.2x

9.1x

8.6x

8.5x8.3x8.1x7.5x7.3x

6.9x

6.1x

5.3x

4.9x

4.8x

15.5x

12.5x

10.4x

6.2x

5.8x

5.3x

4.7x

4.5x

4.3x

4.2x 10

.7x

9.8

x

7.9x7.0x

5.1x

22.4x

18.1x

Goldcorp

Newcrest

Yamana

Newmont

Kinross

Barrick

AngloGold

AlliedNV

Medusa

New

Gold

Randgold

B2Gold

Eldorado

Alamos

Semafo

IAMGOLD

Alacer

AEM

Dundee

Buenaventura

Centerra

Osisko

Harmony

Aurizon

Kirkland

AuRico

Af.Barrick

Centamin

GoldFields

Argonaut

LakeShore

Cluff

Jaguar

Kingsgate

Nevsun

GreatBasin

AlliedGold

GoldenStar

Timmins

S.Stand.

Hecla

Hochshild

PanAm.

Coeur

RoyalGold

Franco-NV

Avg: 9.2x Avg: 9.7x Avg: 7.3x Avg: 20.2xAvg: 8.1x

11.0x

11.0x

8.3x

6.4x

6.3x

5.8x

4.6x

13.6x

12.9x

11.8x

10.9x

10.4x

9.6x

8.9x

8.7x

8.0x

7.8x

7.4x

7.3x

7.0x

6.9x

6.6x

6.2x

5.9x

5.2x

4.6x

4.4x

4.1x

3.6x

14.0x

10.4x

5.8x

5.4x

4.9x

4.7x

4.5x

3.5x

3.1x

3.1x

2.2x

8.9x

7.5x

5.1x

4.4x

3.3x

1

6.9x

13.2

x

Newcrest

Goldcorp

Yamana

Barrick

Newmont

Kinross

AngloGold

Medusa

AlliedNV

New

Gold

Randgold

Bu

enaventura

B2Gold

Eldorado

Alamos

Dundee

Kirkland

Semafo

Alacer

AEM

Osisko

Centerra

Harmony

IAMGOLD

AuRico

Centamin

Aurizon

Af.Barrick

G

oldFields

L

akeShore

Argonaut

Jaguar

Kingsgate

Cluff

Yukon-NV

G

reatBasin

G

oldenStar

Timmins

A

lliedGold

Nevsun

S.Stand.

Hecla

Hochshild

Coeur

PanAm.

R

oyalGold

Franco-NV

Avg: 7.6x Avg: 7.9x Avg: 5.8xAvg: 5.6x Avg: 15.0x

21


22/26

22

Investors current views on gold equitiesNo more premiummore dividends

Companies need to demonstrate a reason to hold equities over physical gold to regain

premium. A desire to hold physical gold or ETF has led to compressed multiples

No more premium 1.0x NAV the new reality

Returning cash toshareholders is a prevailingtheme

Preservation of capital is topof mind

Demand for disciplined M&Atransactions in the goldsector

Organic reserve growth atcompetitive cash costs

With reduced multiples, investors preference for a dividend over reinvesting cash

In the past, preference to reinvest at a premium to NAV

Nominal dividends are attractive for investors

Gradual price to cash flowvaluation shift

Majority of recent M&A transactions in the gold sector have not been well received

Highlights challenge for value creation in the sector

P/CF becoming a more relevant valuation metric (P/NAV remains predominant)

i.e. shift to backward looking or near term future rather than Life of Mine valuations

Growth through M&A alone is not attractive to investors

Organic growth at competitive cash costs is key focus

Large established producers with a disciplined M&A track-record and dividends

Physical bullion and ETFs

1

2

3

4

5

6


23/26

23

Investors Complaints about Gold Equities

No longer willing to accept Companies forecasts on Capital Cost Estimates Prove it before

you brag about it

Tired of Capex Blowouts

Tired of Project Delays

Failure to meet guidance onProduction and Cash Costs

Geographic risk is nowevaluated more carefully

Country Risk evaluation isnow much more critical

Project delays are punished with share sell offs

Reserve and ResourceEstimation Risk

Financing for remote projects will be much more difficult

Enhanced regulatory scrutiny of Technical Reports, in some cases technical issues remainunresolved

1

2

3

4

5

6

Equity issues may face buyer resistance compared to a few months ago

Perhaps the biggest complaint is the Over Promise and Under Deliver


24/26

Miners Perspective for the future

Social Licence to Operate

United Nations Declaration of Rights of Indigenous Peoples

Free willing and informed consent

Peru, Ecuador

Nationalization and creeping nationalization

Increased NSRs and golden shares

Venezuela, Guyana, Ghana

Canada First Nations

Changing legislation

Bill C 300

Capital Cost Blow outs and Schedule Management Financing Issues

Human Resource Challenges

An ageing work force

24


25/26

Conclusions Interesting times

Price of Gold likely to remain at current levels or higher for the next few years

Global economic conditions are not likely to change dramatically for the better

Gold will have a growing importance in its historic role as a Store of Value

Gold companies that consistently deliver what they promise will be rewarded andthose that dont will be punished

Dividends are becoming increasingly important

Social Licence to Operate is more critical than ever

New Projects in Historic Districts are more attractive than Greenfields

Kirkland Lake is well positioned for the future as it has

Reserves and Resources

Exploration Potential

Stable Social, Political tradition

Excellent infrastructure

People and Businesses that are committed to gold mining

25


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Outlook for the Gold MiningIndustry

April 17, 2012

future of the gold mining industry 04-17-2012

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