FUTURE OF WIND ENERGY IN INDIA

By:Dr Manoj Kumar Bhambu

FUTURE OF WIND ENERGY IN INDIA Demand for energy is bound to increase with the

increased economic development in the country. Indian economy is reviving (7.4% in 2014) after

sluggish growth in the last three years (6.6%, 5.1% and 6.9% for 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively) (The World Bank, 2015).

It is expected to grow at faster pace in the times to come as Government of India is stressing upon “Make in India”, “Ease of Doing Business” and “Digital India” predominantly besides land and labour reforms.

It will further push the demand of electricity in almost all the sectors i.e. household, agriculture, commercial, institutional and industrial sector.

INDIA'S INSTALLED CAPACITY OF ELECTRICITY IN MW AS ON 30 JUNE 2015

Coal; 167208

Gas; 23062

Oil; 994

Hydro (Renewable); 41997Nuclear; 5780RES** (MNRE); 35777

WHY RENEWABLE ENERGY? The International Renewable Energy Agency

(Irena) revealed that increasing Wind and Solar power sources to 36 percent would bring the goal of reducing greenhouse gases significantly closer(Gifford, 2016).

As Solar and wind energy can play a vital role in supplying clean and green energy;

Present paper tries to find out the role wind energy can play in the generation mix of power sector in India.

It tries to estimate the total production of wind energy by 2050 in India.

FACTORS IN FAVOUR OF WIND ENERGY IN INDIA

Wind Energy Potentials

Technological Progress

Skill Development

Council

Financial Competence

Social & Industrial

Acceptance

Environmental Concerns

Government Policies

WIND ENERGY POTENTIALS OF INDIA The National Institute of Wind Energy, formerly the Centre of Wind

Energy Technology, recently announced that the total onshore wind energy potential in the country is 302 GW (determined at a hub height of 100 meters).

The fresh estimates are six-times the wind energy potential determined at a 50 meter hub height, and three-times the potential estimated at a hub height of 80 metres. 

Of the total estimated 302 GW potential, 153 GW is available in wasteland, 146 GW in cultivable land, and 3 GW in forest land. (Mittal, 2015)

“The new Berkeley Lab study has found the total techno-economic wind potential to range from 2,006 GW for 80-meter hub heights (an indication of how high the wind turbine stands above the ground) to 3,121 GW for 120-meter hub heights,” an LBL news release states. (Shahan, 2012).

Only 25% of potential realisation gives us an opportunity as big as double the present total installed capacity. This shows the huge potentials in wind energy in India.

Life-Cycle Tonnes CO2 e/GWH by Source of Electricity Generation

Technology Mean Low High

Lignite 1,054 790 1,372

Coal 888 756 1310

Oil 733 547 935

Natural Gas 499 362 891

Solar PV 85 13 731

Biomass 45 10 101

Nuclear 29 2 130

Hydroelectric 26 2 237

Wind 26 6 124

Source: http://www.world-nuclear.org/uploadedFiles/org/WNA/Publications/Working_Group_Reports/comparison_of_lifecycle.pdf

TIMELINE OF SIZE AND CAPACITY OF WIND TURBINES

Cumulative Installed Capacity of Wind Energy by Countries in MW

Rank Country 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1 China 2,599 5,912 12,210 25,104 44,733 62,733 75,564 91,412 114,763

2 USA 11,603 16,819 25,170 35,159 40,200 46,919 60,007 61,110 65,879

3 Germany 20,622 22,247 23,903 25,777 27,214 29,060 31,332 34,250 39,165

4 Spain 11,630 15,145 16,740 19,149 20,676 21,674 22,796 22,959 22,987

5 India 6,270 7,850 9,587 10,925 13,064 16,084 18,421 20,150 22,465

6 UK 1,963 2,389 3,288 4,070 5,203 6,540 8,445 10,711 12,440

7 Canada 1,460 1,846 2,369 3,319 4,008 5,265 6,200 7,823 9,694

8 France 1,589 2,477 3,426 4,410 5,660 6,800 7,196 8,243 9,285

9 Italy 2,123 2,726 3,537 4,850 5,797 6,747 8,144 8,558 8,663

10 Brazil 237 247 339 606 932 1,509 2,508 3,466 5,939

BASIC ASSUMPTION FOR ESTIMATING THE FUTURE OF WIND ENERGY IN INDIA

Past experience shows that size and wind turbine capacity is doubling every five years and with the increased hub heights it may slightly slows down but keep on increasing with steady pace. We can expect wind turbine of 20MW by 2030 and 40MW by 2040 and 60MW by 2048.

Average life-cycle for Technology is assumed to be 15 years and gradual shift in technology is assumed.

25 years of average life of a wind turbine is assumed hence total installed capacity is adjusted for decommissioning of old turbines.

It is assumed that number of new wind turbines installed will expected to rise at the rate of 5% and a factor of 10% uncertainty is increased after every five year for arriving at moderate scenario.

CONCLUSION Wind energy has bright future and we can expect

30% contribution of wind energy in the total generation mix of electricity in India by 2050.

Though wind energy has its own negatives like noise and loss of birds life yet concentrating on off-shore potentials development and development of bladeless windmills that are having no visibly moving parts and reduced noise will solve these problems in coming decades.

FUTURE OF WIND POWER IN INDIA

Year

Wind Energy Installed Capacity in MW

(Aggressive Scenario-Theoretical Possibility )

Wind Energy Installed Capacity in MW (Moderate Scenario-

Practically Expected)

2020 54602 49142

2025 108835 92528

2030 221080 171100

2035 449480 308140

2040 745515 456157

2045 1026878 568702

2050 1300320 650735

Thank You & Wishing Us ALLClean and Green

Energy