future precipitation and snowpack along the wasatch range
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range
Court Strong
University of Utah
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
![Page 2: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Study region (Great Basin and Wasatch Range)
• Projected climate change (big picture)
• Climate modeling framework
• Precipitation and snowpack 1950-2100
![Page 3: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Study region
Annual mean precipitation (cm)
Great Basin UT
WY
Elevation (m)
“Wasatch Range”
UT
ID
![Page 4: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Projected climate change (big picture)
Warming
• Increased moisture content of atmosphere
• Wet years become wetter
Jet stream shifts north
• Wetter north / drier south
• Increased variability
![Page 5: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Climate modeling framework • Three greenhouse gas emission
scenarios were considered
High emission (A2) Moderate emission (A1B) Low emission (B1)
Image from IPCC AR4 Report
![Page 6: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Climate modeling framework Coarse-scale simulations (100 to 200 km)
dynamical downscaling
statistical downscaling
12-14 km
![Page 7: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Precipitation 2000-2049
minus 1950-1999
2050-2099 minus 1950-1999
High emission (A2)
Moderate emission (A1B)
Low emission (B1)
Change in annual precipitation
cm
![Page 8: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Moderate emission (A1B) Wasatch Range annual mean precipitation
Precipitation: Wasatch
mean of all simulations
Moderate emission (A1B)
annual precipitation
![Page 9: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Moderate emission (A1B) Moderate emission (A1B) Wasatch Range annual mean precipitation
Moderate emission (A1B) Wasatch Range annual mean precipitation
Moderate emission (A1B)
annual precipitation
Precipitation: Wasatch
mean of all simulations
![Page 10: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Temperature: Wasatch Moderate emission (A1B)
average maximum air temperature: March-April
mean of all simulations
![Page 11: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Moderate emission (A1B) Moderate emission (A1B)
snowpack (SWE) April 1
Snowpack: Wasatch
mean of all simulations
Based on 14-km model projections May not represent highest-elevation changes
![Page 12: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Precipitation: Wasatch
Amplified seasonality • Increased
precipitation during high snow months
• Decreased precipitation during May-June
precipitation trend
1950-2099 (% change)
precipitation seasonality
(cm)
![Page 13: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Summary • Drier over southern Great Basin and wetter
over northern Great Basin (jet stream wetter and shifted north)
• Wasatch Range trends (to 2100) – Increase in annual mean precipitation (~ 7%)
– Overall increase in precipitation variability
– Snowpack declines due to warming
– Amplified precipitation seasonality (wetter snow season, drier in May and June)
• New data (released last week)
![Page 14: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Precipitation and snowpack: historical
Extremely high and very low years just occurred back to back.
Snowbird SNOTEL 1989-2012
![Page 15: Future precipitation and snowpack along the Wasatch Range](https://reader037.vdocument.in/reader037/viewer/2022100307/586d68811a28abd7608c0b9b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Annual precipitation (cm)
Average maximum air temperature
March-April (°C)
Snowpack SWE April 1 (cm)
Wasatch Range
Future projections: Wasatch