future prospect for sustainable urban transportation in india
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CURRENT CHALLENGES AND FUTUREPROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINABLEURBAN TRANSPORTATION IN INDIA
Kumares C. Sinha
Purdue University
First Indo-US Symposium on Advances in Mass Transit and Travel Behaviour Research (MTTBR-08)
12-15 February 2008, India
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Challenges in Urban Transportation Increasing demand for passenger and goods
movement with limited resources
Congestion in Indian cities
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Challenges in Urban Transportation
Need for sustainability: Safety
Environmental quality Social equity
Air pollution in Indian cities
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Challenges in Urban Transportation Level of economic
growth, urbanization and
other economicconditions
Common thrust: How tocope with motorization
Congestion in Atlanta, GA
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History Repeats Itself Similarity exists in trends:
Rising personal income
Growth in private vehicleownership and use
Low density urban sprawl
Decline of publictransportation
The Elephant and TheDragon: The Rise of India
and China
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History Repeats Itself
Walking
Bicycling and MotorScooters
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History Repeats Itself
Bus Rail
Auto-rickshaw Auto
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The Emergence of Affordable
Vehicle In 1908, Ford Model T:
Response toconsumer’s desire for
personal travel avoidingslow and restrictive
service of streetcars
Henry Ford, founder of FordMotor Company standing beside
the Ford Model T
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The Emergence of Affordable
Vehicle In 2008, Tata Nano:
Fulfilling aspirations ofmiddle class in Indiathat finds travel byexcessively
overcrowded publictransportation andmotor scooters unsafeand exhausting
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Overcrowded Public Transportation
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Congested Highways
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The Emergence of Affordable
Vehicle Possible impacts:
Travel behavior andpattern
Residential locationchoice
Environmentalsustainability
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Indicators of Urban
Transportation Sustainability Decennial data from 46 cities in the US, Australia, Canada, Western Europe and
Asia 1960-1990 (Kenworthy and Laube) Indicators of transport efficiency in 37
global cities 1990 (The World Bank)
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Pearson Correlations of Population Density
Variables 1960 1970 1980 1990 1960-1990Transit boardings /capita 0.76 0.66 0.66 0.69 0.67
Total energy consumption /capita -0.51 -0.54 -0.64 -0.69 -0.58
Car kms of travel/ car -0.43 -0.64 -0.64 -0.38 -0.51
Cars/1000 people -0.78 -0.79 -0.80 -0.82 -0.71
Parking spaces in CBD/1000
employees
-0.55 -0.62 -0.47 -0.49 -0.46
Road length/ capita -0.70 -0.60 -0.65 -0.67 -0.61
Energy consumption by private
modes /capita
-0.63 -0.56 -0.65 -0.69 -0.60
Car kms of travel/ capita -0.76 -0.70 -0.72 -0.71 -0.64
Boardings per transit km of travel 0.76 0.77 0.43 0.45 0.48
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Population density & Car and Transit Demand
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Transit & Transportation Energy Demand
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Transit Boardings (per capita/year)
T r a n s
p o r t a
t i o n
E n e r g y
C o n s u m p
t i o n
( M J / c a p
i t a
/ y e a r )
y = -17130 ln x + 122749
r2 = 0.731
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T it M d Sh & T t ti
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Transit Mode Share & Transportation
Emissions
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1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0 20 40 60 80 100
JTW by Transit (%)
C O
2 e m i s s i o n s ( k g / c a p i t a / y e a r )
y = -1291.8 ln x + 6505.6
r2 = 0.6367
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Population Density & Transit Cost Recovery
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0 100 200 300 400
Urban Population Density (persons/hectare)
T r a n s i t C o s t R e c o v
e r y F a c t o r
y = 0.2696 ln x – 0.3511
r
2
= 0.6219
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Economy, Population andUrbanization
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2006 GNP/capita for USA ($44,970) is55 times larger than India ($820)
26% of Indian population lives inpoverty
Poor cannot even afford basic public
transportation
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Worldwide Trends
0
200
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600
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1600
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2200
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
I n d e x
( 1 9 5 0 = 1
0 0 )
Automobile Use
Motor vehiclefleet
Urbanpopulation
Totalpopulation
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Urban population density in India(15,700 persons/sq. km) is about 14
times higher than in the USA (1,150persons/sq. km)
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Megacities and Cities in India
Mumbai (mega)Pop: 16.4 mDensity:29,650 person/m2 Kolkata (mega)
Pop: 13.2 m
Density:23,900 person/m2
Delhi (mega)
Pop: 12.8 mDensity:11,050 person/m2
ChennaiPop: 6.0 mDensity:
14,350 person/m2
BangalorePop: 5.4 mDensity:10,010 person/m2
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Megacities and Cities in USA
New York (mega)
Pop: 18.8 mDensity:2,050 person/m2
San FranciscoPop: 3.23 mDensity:2,350 person/m2
Los AngelesPop: 11.8 mDensity:2,750 person/m2
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Rapid pace of urbanization is aworldwide phenomenon
In USA, sprawl was initiated primarilyby choice
In India, it is mostly by necessity
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Travel Characteristics
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Modal Split in Indian Cities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
M u m b
a i
K o l k a
t a D e
h l i
C h e n
n a i
B a n g
a l o r e
H y d e
r a b a d
A h m e
d a b a
d P u
n e
K a n p
u r
L u c k
n o w
M o
d a l s p
l i t
Public transport
Privatemotorized
Non-automatedtransport
Walk
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Modal Split in US Cities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%100%
N e w Y o
r k
C h i c a
g o
W a s h
i n g t o n
D . C
.
S a n F
r a n c i s
c o
P
h i l a d
e l p h i a
L
o s A n g
e l e s
M o d a l s
p l i t
Public transport
Privatemotorized
Non-automatedtransport
Walk
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Annual rate of travel demand growth in majorcities ranges 2.2-9.5%
The use of public transportation is high (30-78%)
Predominant mode is walking and non-motorizedtransportation
The percentage of trips by private vehicles isrelatively small, 10-20%, but rapidly increasing
Bus represents 90% of public transportation use
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Except in New York and a few large cities, theproblem of public transportation in USA is the
lack of demand In India, it is the lack of supply
Indian cities are on the cusp of a major shift intravel behavior
The experience of cities in USA since the 1950sis about to be repeated in Indian cities
Travel Characteristics
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Traffic Congestion in Indian, Chinese
and US Cities
City Average speed during peakcongestion in downtown
Mumbai, India 38 km/h (1963)
15-20 km/h (1993)
Delhi, India 20-27 km/h (1997)15 km/h (2002)
Chennai, India 13 km/h (2003)
Kolkata, India 7-15 km/h (2003)
Beijing, China 45 km/h (1994)
5-12 km/h (2003)
Shanghai, China 9-18 km/h (2003)
Los Angeles, USA* 8-32 km/h (2005)
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Congestion is endemic aroundthe world
Most acute and aggravating inIndian cities: Limited road space
Poor road design
Lack of maintenance Mixed traffic
Traffic jams last many hoursand spread over a large area
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Traffic Safety
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Road fatality rate per million people has almosttripled in India over the past few decades: Over 100,000 traffic fatalities in 2003
Fatality rate per 100,000 motor vehicles in 2003(108.1) was five times that in the USA
Four largest cities accounts for 5.4 percent of all roadfatalities
56% involves pedestrians and bicyclists 20% involves scooters
Urban poor is disproportionately affected
Possible sustainability in question
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Environment and Energy
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Air, noise and waterpollution
Old and poorly maintainedvehicles and infrastructures
Indian cities are some of themost polluted
SPM concentrations aremany times higher thanChina or in the USA, 3 to 4times higher than the WHO
standards
Smog in China
Environmental Pollution in India China
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/08/environment/source/4.htm
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Environmental Pollution in India, China
and USA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
B e i j i n
g
S h a n
g h a i
S h e
n y a n
g
M u m b
a i
K o l k a
t a D e
l h i
L o s A n g
e l e s
S a n F r a n
c i s c o
N e w Y o
r k P o
l l u
t a n
t c o
n c e n
t r a
t i o n
( m i c r o
g r a m
p e r c u
b i c m
e t e r )
Suspended ParticulateMatters
SOx
NOx
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Vehicular traffic renders some cities noisiest inthe world
Long-term hearing loss and damage to nervoussystem
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Noise Pollution in India, China and USA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Beijing Shanghai Shenyang Mumbai Kolkata Delhi
N o i s e L e v e l ( d B )
USEPA Limit of 67 dBfor Residential Areas
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Greenhouse Gases
150 million cars by 2020
Even with 50 mpg, Nano
will add an enormousamount of CO2 to thecurrent emission of 220million tons per year
CO2 and Global Warming
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Future Prospects
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Pricing
Pricing mechanisms do notconsider the full cost ofautomotive transportation
Road safety and environmentalimpacts should be internalizedand translated into user chargesto slow down demand for roadtraffic
Additional revenues collected canbe used: Improving road safety
Developing vehicle and fueltechnologies
Improving public transportation
Electronic Road Pricing inSingapore
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Land Use Management
Minimize dispersal and travel
Long-range land use-transportation
policies Smart growth in central cities and suburbs
Examples of China
With low car ownerships, opportunity isstill there
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Public Transportation
Make Public Transportation an Attractive Alternative
Increase level of service and quality of public
transportation Seamless travel through integration of services
Market segmentation
New suburban rail and bus rapid transit systems
Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) Use of cleaner technologies
Infrastructure for non-motorized transportation
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Alternative Fuels
Explore alternativefuel options:
Plug-in hybrids Cellulosic bio-fuels
Hydrogen fuel cell
Promote R&D in thedevelopment ofalternative fuel
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Research, Education andTraining
Research centers of excellence atcompetitively-selected universities:
Cooperation with public and private sectors Collaboration with domestic and foreign universities
Funded as part of the national transportationdevelopment program
Multidisciplinary Integration with academic programs
Continuing education and training
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Long Term Vision for SustainableUrbanization
Three-way relationship:
Land use
Internet
Transportation
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Long Term Vision for SustainableUrbanization
Harness the potential ofemerginginformation/communication
technologies Tele-commuting, tele-schooling,
tele-shopping and tele-entertaining
Effects on trip rates, distancesand distributions of various trippurposes
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Conclusions
Process of motorization and attendant sprawl with declinein public transportation is a worldwide phenomenon
Need for sustainability and countermeasures to
motorization
Reconfiguration of urban communities
Role of technology
Cities as a collection of livable communities
Travel and residential location choice
Understanding of travel behavior
Research, education and training
Need for political will
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End of Presentation