Future Public Services

23 April 2014

Nick PageStrategic Director forChildren’s Services

Item No. 3

Purpose of today

Salford’s future:• Our changing demographics and economy• Scale of the various challenges• The role of partners

Start of discussions on:• Potential responses• Next steps

Salford population - forecasts 2014 to 2020 (1)

Total forecast up by 7.3% (17,600 people), – England projected up by 5%– forecast to peak 2017-18 at 4,000 (1.6%)

0-4 years forecast up by 1,100 or 6.2%, – England projected up by 2.3% – until 2016 growth in Salford similar to national projection – after 2016, growth in Salford above national average but falling towards 2020

and beyond

5-9 years forecast up by 2,800 or 16.8% – England projected up by 11.1%– until 2017 rates in Salford much greater than England – after 2017 closer to but still above national average

10-15 years forecast up by 1,900 or 15.6% – England projected up by 8.7% – previously Salford rates less than the national average – Salford rate will start to converge with national rate around 2020

Working age (19-64 years) forecast up by 6.9% - England projection 2.9% - rates of growth forecast to converge in 2019 - Salford forecast 8.3% growth in those 30-64 years

65-89 years forecast up by 6.3% - slower than national average, in line with past trends - growth in the number of people aged 65+ forecast to remain lower

than national rates, unlike younger age groups

90 years and over forecast up by about 100 a year - in line with national growth rate

Salford population - forecasts 2014 to 2020 (2)

4.1% Salford residents unemployed in December 2013 – above Greater Manchester and national rates

16.7% of working age people claim out-of-work benefits.

– Salford consistently higher than the national rate of 11.2%– slight changes (0.5% increase 2011 to 2013)

62% of Salford residents have qualifications at level 2 or below– Worse than GM and national rates– 75% of all new jobs expected to require qualification at level 2 or above– 32% of people working in Salford have qualifications at level 2 or below

Minority communities – almost tripled since 2001 to 14.4%– lower than national level but gap is closing– largest BME groups are White Eastern European, Asian and Black African– Jewish community remains largest minority faith; Muslim community has more than doubled

Job growth forecast up by 7.6%– England average 5%– Salford rate forecast to be double the national rate from 2017– Forecast about 1,700 extra jobs a year

Health inequalities – linked to deprivation – Salford’s mortality rates remain higher than the England average, – rates in Salford have fallen over recent years but in line with national trends so gaps persist

Salford’s population: some characteristics

£20.9 bn£22.5 bn

7.1 8.3

5.9

4.45.1

2.93.2

6.5

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

08/09 12/13

GM

exp

endi

ture

(£bn

)

Benefits and tax credits Local authorities Health Other

Greater Manchester public spending2008/09 to 2012/13 (cash terms)

Source: New Economy

£22.9 bn £22.5 bn

7.8 8.3

7.2 5.9

4.8 5.1

3.2 3.2

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

08/09 12/13

GM

exp

endi

ture

(£bn

)

Benefits and tax credits Local authorities Health Other

Greater Manchester public spending2008/09 to 2012/13 (real terms)

Source: New Economy

Some other Government policy drivers

Open public services and localism

• Increasing choice – giving people choice over the services they use

• Empowering local decision making – decentralising power to the lowest appropriate level

• Opening up public services – opening up provision to a range of providers

• Giving everyone fair access – supporting the most disadvantaged in fulfilling their potential

• Increasing accountability – making public service providers accountable to users and taxpayers

The social challenge

Our role in managing

Expectations

Behaviour

Resilience

Some possible considerations

• Greater Manchester programmes• changing the offer• joint design and community engagement• co-operative city• social value• delivering differently• asset-based approaches

GM opportunities

• Early Years• Helping Families and Complex Dependency• Transforming Justice• Promoting Independence for Older People• Health and Social Care Reform

GM Growth and Reform Plan

http://www.agma.gov.uk/gmca/gm-growth-reform-plan/index.html

Reactive / Specialist

EarlyHelp

Universal

Changing the Offer

Reactive /Specialist

Early Help

Universal

What else?

What examples of co-design and co-delivery do we have that we can build on already?

Is there an economic AND service improvement link?

What, if we want to, should we do to develop a proposition or series of propositions going forward?