future scenarios: a tool to make students and citizens ... · pdf filethe cyberpunk subgenre...

14.6.2017

1

Cristina Pozzi (Co-founder & CEO)

Andrea Dusi (Co-founder & Chairman)

Future scenarios: a tool to make students and citizens more aware of future technological change

The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed.

William Gibson

William Gibson

American-Canadian writer who has

been called the "noir prophet" of

the cyberpunk subgenre of science

fiction. Gibson coined the term

"cyberspace" in his short story

"Burning Chrome" and later

popularized the concept in his

debut novel, Neuromancer (1984).

14.6.2017

2

The pace of change driven by exponential technologies

such as AI, robotics, 3D printing, genetics, nanotechnology,

biotechnology and blockchain, is making it increasingly

difficult for many people to understand the present society

and to cope with the future, mainly because of the lack of

awareness and education, causing incapability to think

about the future with a positive attitude.

The future is here and it brings big challenges

• We live in an age of unprecedented technological development in all fields and sectors

• The technology trends, scientific, environmental, economic, social and cultural rights are

accelerating the creation of a complex situation of risks and opportunities

• The human race is facing problems concerning the breakdown of economic and cultural

paradigms and uncertainty about the future are awful

• To ensure that there is continuity in the business and a better future for the next

generations, we should completely revise all the models, skills, education and markets

• A few decide for everyone

14.6.2017

3

As these technologies

are growing at an

exponential pace:

• they are not

perceived correctly

• they can disrupt

every single aspect

of our lives very

quickly.

Impactscool aims to bring citizens

globally free education, discussion

and collaboration on how

emerging exponential

technologies will disrupt and

transform our industries,

companies, careers and lives; and

about the opportunities and

challenges we are going to face, in

order to drive humanity toward

the best possible future.

14.6.2017

4

Our Vision

• We live in a world where technologies will increasingly play a major role in everyday life

• Technology alone cannot be the answer to global challanges human race is facing, as

humans must be the center of the paradigma

• The GAP between social classes could increase without a proper use of new

technologies

• To ensure that there is continuity in the business and a better future for the next

generations, we should completely revise all the models, skills, education and

industries

Our Mission

A global organization supporting humans to shape and lead the future and to be aware of

how they can impact the world today and tomorrow.

And our objectives

- Being global: 198 countries

- More than 1bln people involved in the next 10 years

- 1mln + challenges successfully solved all over the world

14.6.2017

5

Collaborative tools with gamification to work on: o Specific local challengeso Global challengeso Ethical discussions about how

the world will be impacted by technology and how to address policy makers in the right direction

Education links and materials in order to prepare the community to work on the challenges and discuss online and offline: o Blogo Links to articleso Link to education platforms o Frameworkso E-learning tools

Education workshops in universities, schools, companies (for managers and employees)

Hackathons taking up the challenges online to solve global and/or local problems, with prizes such as: money, perks, education

Online tools arepreparatory forhackathons

Global and localchallenges aretaken up fromonline

Local Ambassadors can replicate with an ExO model the format to organize workshops or to call for action local communities to take up the challenges and solve them

Workshop e corsi per istituzioni e aziende, realizzati su misura.

EDUCATIONA ND COLLABORATIVE

PLATFORM

EVENTS IN SCHOOLS, UNIVERSITIES AND

MORE

EXPONENTIAL GROWTHx

Our strategy: an exponential model

Materials deriving from offline events: o Videoso Case studiesEverything is available online for education and also in order to guarantee continuity to the projects started offline.

o Slideso Projects

OBJECTIVES

Boost AWARENESS about changes deriving from accelerating pace of innovation and technologies with a bottom up approach

Teach BASIC FORESIGHT TOOLS to make people able to think about the future in a more rational way

MEASURE PEOPLE PERCEPTION about technologies and how to manage them in the future

DEFINE THROUGH A COLLABORATIVE PROCESS REGULATIONS, VALUES AND PRINCIPLES that should be taken into account by the decision makers (citizens are a stakeholder too!)

A B C D

14.6.2017

6

Our methodology: 4 types workshops usually held in the same university/school as a complete program

• Introduction to theconcept of ExponentialTechnologies

• Insights on differentsectors and scenarios

• Discussion and debate ingroups about social andethical impacts oftechnologies in the futureanalyzing a given scenario

• Understating the nexttrends through an in-depth analysis of onespecific technology (i.e.Artificial Intelligence) indifferent sectors

• Discussion and debate ingroups about social andethical impacts oftechnologies in thefuture analyzing a givenscenario

• Learning scenariobuilding basis in orderto be able to predictcorrectly what thefuture could look like

• Group working to buildpossible futurescenarios

• Building product andservices that can fitfuture market andsocieties

• Group work to imagineproduct and services ofthe future

1st workshop 2nd workshop 3rd workshop 4th workshop

A B

C

A B

Boost AWARENESS about changes deriving from accelerating pace of innovation and

technologies with a bottom up approach

A

We work with students in universities and schools, opening debates about future

scenarios and helping them immerse in them in order to understand the impacts of

emerging disrupting technologies.

AGE: 14 to 24 years old

Background: any

Locations: worldwide

Plus we are working in order to disseminate as much as possible through different tools.

14.6.2017

7

A

Presentation of the state of

the art and current experts

discussion Discussion all

togetherDiscussion in front of the class (2 groups

per scenario)

Scenario analysis in

groups

DEBATING ABOUT FUTURE SCENARIOSFuture scenarios are analysed first in small groups (4-6 people) and then discussed

together with everybody participation

A

Design thinking tools help the participants to focus and prepare the discussion. Everything will be soon available with open Creative Commons rights online

14.6.2017

8

A15 February 2017

To24 May 2017

• 15 workshops both in

Italian and in English

• 15 universities

• 21 cities

• 2 nations (Italy | UK)

• 1.032 students

• 31 professors helping

Impactscool

ATOTAL 1.025 100%

W 425 41%

M 600 59%

0 <18 - 0%

1 18-22 640 62%

2 22-24 325 32%

3 >24 60 6%

International 167 16%

ITA 858 84%

GEOGRAPHICALORIGIN

SEX

AGE

Additional information

• AVARAGE OF 71,5 STUDENTS PER CLASS

• AVARAGE DURATION: 2,4 HOURS

SEXSPLIT

W M

AGESPL IT

< 18 18-22 22-24 > 24

GEOGRAPHICALSPLIT

International ITA

14.6.2017

9

AWorkshops with students


14.6.2017

10



14.6.2017

11



14.6.2017

12



14.6.2017

13



14.6.2017

14



14.6.2017

15



14.6.2017

16

Dissemination activity throughinterviews and conferences

A

Dissemination online throughsocials and news tools

A

14.6.2017

17

• More work in Italy

• New countries:

1. Brasil

2. UK

3. Africa

4. India

5. China

6. …

• We are strongly developing our model in Italy where we

are planning more than 1,000 workshops in the next 12

months through the help of ambassadors.

• At the same time we are expanding in new countries. In

the next 3 months:

• UK

• Brasil

• Africa (beta test in Ghana and then deploy in 20+

countries).

• While in 2018 we plan to enter India and China, together

with other 3 EU countries.

What’s next?

Teach BASIC FORESIGHT TOOLS to make people able to think about the future in a

more rational way

B

Starting from June 2017 we are also teaching basic foresight tools and applying them in

scenario

building workshops with students.

AGE: 14 to 24 years old

Background: any

Locations: worldwide

14.6.2017

18

Methodology

B

Identify Constants, Trends, Plans and

Events

Future scenariosbuilding

Creation of product and services for future users

Prioritari-zation

• The activity is usually split in two/three different meeting (2-3 hours each)• The students work both individually and in groups during all the process

BFutures

Constraint(Fattori positivi e negativi di un futuro in cui tutto resta costante)

Growth(Fattori positivi e negativi di un futuro in cui tutto cresce)

Collapse(Fattori positivi e negativi di un futuro in cui tutto crolla)

Transformation(Fattori positivi e negativi di un futuro in cui tutto cambia)

+ - + -

+ - + -

Definiamo le costanti

LUOGO

COSTANTICosa rimarrà costante nel timeframe considerato?Lavorate inserendo una costante per ogni post-it.

TEMPO

TRENDSQuali sono i trend visibili oggi per il futuro (sia positivi sia negativi) con cui tutti dovremo avere a che a fare (Es. invecchiamento popolazione, migrazioni, automazione…). Lavorate inserendo un trend per ogni post-it.

PLANSQuali piani hanno gli stakeholder che possono influenzare il futuro? (Es. Accordo sul clima,

accordi sul disarmo nucleare...). Lavorate inserendo una piano per ogni post-it.

EXPECTED FUTUREQuesta rappresenta la baseline sulla quale costruire i diversi scenari.

+


14.6.2017

19

B


B


14.6.2017

20

The cone of possibilities

Source: Voros, 2003

B

14.6.2017

21

14.6.2017

22

index.jpeg

index.jpeg

2018

14.6.2017

23

?

?

14.6.2017

24

?

?

14.6.2017

25

MEASURE PEOPLE PERCEPTION about technologies and how to manage them in

the future

C

Measurements are done before, during and after the workshop:

Before questionnaire

During registration of the debate outcomes applying grounded theory

After questionnaire

We are now in the initial phase of the study and we are building the parameters thanks

to the work done with the first 15 workshops

Methodology GROUNDED THEORY

Grounded theory method is a systematic generation of theory from data that contains both inductive anddeductive thinking.

According to Glaser (1992), the strategy of Grounded Theory is to take the interpretation of meaning in socialinteraction on board and study "the interrelationship between meaning in the perception of the subjects and theiraction". Therefore, through the meaning of symbols, human beings interpret their world and the actors whointeract with them, while Grounded Theory translates and discovers new understandings of human beings'behaviours that are generated from the meaning of symbols.

C

14.6.2017

26

Grounded TheoryProcess

"GT is multivariate. It happenssequentially, subsequently, simultaneously, serendipitously, and scheduled"

(Glaser, 1998)

STRAUSS AND CORBIN APPROACH

C

OPEN CODING FOCUSED CODING SELECTIVE CODING

• Coding text and theorizing

• Memoing and theorizing • Integrating, refining and writing up theories

We are starting using Grunded Theory model to analysethe results of the workshops

C

14.6.2017

27

OPEN CODING FOCUSED CODING SELECTIVE CODING

• Coding text and theorizing

• Memoing and theorizing • Integrating, refining and writing up theories

We are now in the Open Coding fase and there are alreadysome patterns emerging to guide us to create concepts, categories, and theories

C

C

14.6.2017

28

DEFINE THROUGH A COLLABORATIVE PROCESS REGULATIONS, VALUES AND

PRINCIPLES that should be taken into account by the decision makers

D

Starting by the end of the year we are going to organize workshops and to use the web

platform (currently under construction) in order to start a collaboration process about

guidelines to be applied to specific technologies and to create impacts solving together

with the community local and global challenges.

Embodyhighest ideals

of human rights

Prioritize maxbenefit to humanity

and naturalenvironment

Mitigate risks and negative impactsc as

AI/AS 3volv e as socio-technical systems

Principles(examples)

Source: IEEE

14.6.2017

29

Thir party independentorganizationsoperating ascontrollers

Responsibilities

Ethical certification

Actions and thingsto be discussed(examples)

Source: IEEE

Let’s stay in touch

[email protected]

[email protected]

Join the conversation!

https://www.facebook.com/groups/Impactscool/

https://www.facebook.com/Impactscool

future scenarios: a tool to make students and citizens ... · pdf filethe cyberpunk subgenre...

Documents