Future Trends in Technology Business Incubation

Rustam LalkakaBusiness & Technology Development Strategies LLC

rlalkaka@btds.biz www.btds.biz

New Zealand Trade and EnterpriseAsian Association of Business Incubation

International Conference, Auckland, New Zealand March 2007

Key Development Concern is now PovertyToday, 1 in 5 of the world’s people - 1.2 billion - live on less than one dollar a day, 1 in 3 have no access to electricity, and 1 in 2 lack basic sanitation. 50 countries have lower percapita incomes now than a decade ago.

Traditional measures of poverty focus on income or expenditure. The broader concept of Empowerment,however, covers choices, opportunities and access to:

Human Assets (Skills, Knowledge, Health care)Social Assets (Family, Friends, Political networks) Financial Assets (Savings, Government transfers, Credit)Physical Assets (Property rights, drinking Water, clean Air)Equity, Human rights, Self-esteem, Social InclusionRespect for Culture, Ethnicity, Religion, Language

The lack of access to such assets are ‘unfreedoms’

The Paradoxes of Poverty

Knowledge to attack problems of poverty and disease exists. But political commitment and resources have yet to be mobilized.Knowledge Rights (IP) unfairly deny the right to a better life

Energy demands of developing nations must rise & oil prices climb, with disastrous effects on global warming and growth. Today renewable energy contributes under 15 % of global supply

People paradox: Population is ageing in many rich countries but proportions of youth are rising in poor countries - This poses the dilemma: Import young workers OR export the work ?

Official development assistance to poor countries is about $ 50 billion a year. Subsidies to agriculture in rich nations are $ 350 billion, and military expenditures $1,000 billion

Racial, religious and gender violence make us all less secure

Determinants of Incubation Success ....beyond incubator location, layout, management

Public policy

Culture Context

BusinessInfrastructure

GeographyHistory

Community support

The COMMUNITY is the ultimate supporter (and beneficiary) of the Incubation system

New incubation modes must be developed to address rural & urban poverty

Putting Incubation in Context

Incubation deals with a tiny portion of SME developmentIt is no panacea, not a solution to vast unemploymentIncubation requires a variety of players, playing as a teamFor success, it must be integrated in national plansIts about people and process, not only plans and policiesChange comes slowly, and failure is part of successFrom the outset, it must involve politicians and communityImportantly, incubation must have a ‘champion’

Half the world’s 4,500+ incubators are in developing nations. But one-third of these are in only three

(China, Brazil, Korea)

Emerging Developments Worldwide

ONE, Technology need no longer be the dominant focus.The urgent issues are employment, empowerment, environment

TWO, Government should no longer be the sole sponsor.The emerging model is of public-private-academia partnering

THREE, the Bottom-of-pyramid - 4 bill poor with $ 2,000 PPP income - is much bigger market than the affluent 100 million with $20,000 at Top-of-pyramid. MNCs and SMEs can serve BoP

FOUR, it is not enough to look west at USA and Europe, as significant developments are taking place in the South, eg. in Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and in East, eg. China, India, Korea

No one wants to (or can) stop the GLOBALIZATION Express, but you must prepare the platform for us to

jump on to it !!

Future developments outside the incubator

Many service/ pharma/ manufacture jobs will move out of USA

Skilled migrants will return home, while American youth migrate

Disparities in incomes within countries may well widen

More people will work at home, Ideas of retirement will change

Workers will choose quality-time over more money

Computing power/convergence will rise, Robots will replace labor

Use of stem-cells and targeted drug delivery will enhance health

Water shortages will become severe > Major cause of conflicts

Costs of global climate change will rise to billions per year

....but enlightened self-interest and human ingenuity may well prevail

Discernible Incubation Trends1. Convergence of services on the ‘smart’ Incubation platform

2. Incubators & Managers accredited to meet quality norms

4. Stronger links to knowledge-base: academia-research

5. Mobilizing public-private partnerships, to serve the BoP

6. e-incubation network for distance counseling, as eRedes

7. Increase in global out-sourcing of services /manufacture

8. More emphasis on MIS, monitoring, evaluation, impact

Move towards balance between:Public intervention> Private Initiative

>Inclusive Development

9. Strengthened incubator association linked worldwide

10. Social innovation - civic entrepreneurs, to address 3 E’s

11. New technologies (nano, environment, energy, security)

12. Expatriate nationals to bring back expertise, contacts

13. International incubation alliances for soft-landings/synergy

14. Incubator Expansion: Finland (pop. 5 mill has 40 incubators), Korea (pop 50 mill - 350 incubators), that is, 7 to 8 per million pop. What are the plans in your country?

Which of the trends above will be your national priorities??

We welcome your comments and proposals

We cannot solve tomorrow’s problemsusing the same skills and knowledge we had

when we created themAlbert Einstein