futurreg futures for regional development futures workshop turku, june 7, 2006
TRANSCRIPT
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FUTURREGFutures for Regional Development
Futures WorkshopTurku, June 7, 2006
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Structure
1. « Visionary management » approach2. Case studies/applications3. Exchanges with the participants :
experiences and some key questions of the participants
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1. « Visionary management » approach
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Building the common vision
1
0
2
3
4
5
The Foresight process
Inputs of thestakeholders
Preparation
Foresight diagnosis
Setting out the long terms issuesDefinition of
strategic axis
Measures and concreteactions
6Steering and monitoring
the implementation
7Evaluation of the process and outputs
Source : Regional Foresight Group of the Mutual Learning Platform
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Visionary management consists in bringing a group of actors - involved in a territory (defined or to be defined), a business or an organisation, etc. - to project their ideas into the long-term future in order to envisage the goals and values that form a common vision of their future on behalf of the general interest, and to do this in a collective and shared dynamics.
A vision is a shared picture of the desired future.The vision is made up of the ultimate aims which could show the long-term direction that should guide the common strategy of the decision makers, the stakeholders and the citizens
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Preparation phase (clarification of objectives and motivations, scope of the exercise, timescale, steering structures, budget, communication, etc.)
Foresight phase (analysing, thinking and debating the future)
1. Foresight diagnosis
2. Setting up the long term issues
3. Building the common vision
Strategic phase (Shaping the future)
4. Definition of strategic axis
5. Measures and concrete actions
6. Steering and monitoring the implementation
7. Evaluation of the foresight process and outputs
Key phases of the Foresight processKey phases of the Foresight process
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Visionary management
is actually part of a strategic foresight process structured in seven main
phases
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Broad and complete information base
Expressing the mental representations, confronting with the realities,
sharing of the diagnosis
Working groups, SWOT analysis, benchmarking, etc.
Sources of change, internal and external trends and impacts in terms of issues
Global driving forces,
main issues
role and power of actors against issues
Foresight workshops, computer-based tools (MICMAC), control matrix
Normative phase of defining a future vision
Desirable futures,
sharing of the vision
Matrices comparing possible and desirable futures
Ide
ntif
ica
tion
and
dia
gno
sis
Lon
g te
rm is
sues
Ulti
mat
e a
ims,
com
mo
n
visi
onScope Objectives Methods
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SWOT Analysis
Assessment dataBenchmarking
Working groups
Providing Knowledge base
Identify the common ground
Express the mental representations
Confrontation with the realities
Sharing of the diagnosis
Identification and diagnosisIdentification and diagnosis
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Trends IssuesGearing
LIPSOR’sMICMAC Software
Importance vsControl Matrix
Setting out the long-term issuesSetting out the long-term issues
Exploring the possible futures
Gearing global with local
Grading the long term issues
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ExternalTrends
InternalTrends
Global
Local
Past Future
ISSUES
FabienneGoux-BaudimentNamur, 01.06.18
Movement
TrendsTrendsIssuesIssuesGearinGearingg
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Strong
Weak
Weak Strong
Importanceof the changes/ inertias
Currentcontrol
Michel GodetCreating Futures2001, p. 95.
ImportancImportanceevs Controlvs ControlMatrixMatrix
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ForesightWorkshops
Possibles vs Desirables Matrix
Building the Aims and the Building the Aims and the Common VisionCommon Vision
Formulating the desirable futures
Ultimate Aims
Sharing of the vision
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THE ULTIMATE AIMS = THE VISION
THE ISSUES
How to bridge the present with desired How to bridge the present with desired future ?future ?
2020 20152010
DIAGNOSISGraphisme Nicolas George
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Complementarity/synergy with other tools
►Scenarios approach is a tool that can be integrated in the proposed approach to illustrate the spectrum of possible futures before building the chosen future defined by the vision.
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2. Case studies/applications
1. Charleroi 20202. Foresight of enterprises’ policies in
Wallonia3.Vision 2020 of the Large Region
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Charleroi 2020
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Charleroi 2020
Context To update previous initiatives :- 1991 : Charleroi city project- 1994 : Metropolitan Charleroi city charter 21
Initiative :- The city of Charleroi
Objectives :- To enable all the residents to help build a vision of their region's
development and design a collective strategy to achieve this desired future;
- Civil society participants and citizens as well were encouraged to mobilise in order to define what Charleroi and its Urban Community wished to become and install the conditions for collective well-being by the 2020 horizon.
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Charleroi 2020
Involvement : a citizenship experience - Over 1,100 people participated in the exercise;- Citizens, neighbourhood representatives, outside experts, heads of
businesses and associations, retailers, teachers, civil servants and politicians.
Results : Common vision (ultimate aims), strategic lines, innovative cross-sectoral actions
Lessons / difficulties : - A methodological problem. It was found hard to move beyond a strictly
thematic approach and to integrate the long-term variables by the participants.
- The solution proposed was to make room for a foresight phase that had not been planned initially so as to identify the long-term issues and a common vision prior to defining a territorial strategy.
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The phases of Charleroi 2020
Phase 1: Shared diagnosis based onthe evaluation of Charleroi Métropole 21
Phase 2: Long-term issuesEvolution of environment now to 2020
FORESIGHT
Phase 4: Strategic lines forCharleroi's development from 2004
STRATEGY
Phase 3: Common visionUltimate aims for the 2020 horizon
Phase 5: Formulation, hierarchisation, &implementation of innovative actions
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Vision 2020 of the Large Region
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Vision 2020 : Large Region
Context :- A long tradition of transborder cooperation;- The political summits of the Large Region
Initiative :- The 5th political summit of the Large Region in 2001 - A proposal to develop a common perspective for further
development and a common strategic vision.
Objectives :- To restructure the strategic orientation of cross-border
co-operation in the Large Region over the next 20 years
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Vision 2020 : Large Region
Involvement : a focus on decision makers
The vision was developed by a limited group of decision makers gathered in a Political Commission under the chairmanship of the former European Commission President Jacques Santer
Results : Common vision of the future, a new potential framework to develop the Large Region co-operation zone.
Lessons / difficulties : - Need to involve all the Large Region stakeholders to take into
account the expectations and concrete needs of the citizens who were not part of the exercise;
- A gap was observed between Vision 2020's ambitions and the means foreseen for its actual implementation, as indicated in the declaration of the 7th Summit.
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Entreprises
Enterp
rises
’ polic
ies
Foresight
2003
2020environmentfactors of changecompetitiveness
instrumentsinitiatives
Long term vision of enterprises’ policies in Wallonia
issuesstrategic guidelinesConcrete actions
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Foresight of enterprises’ policies in Wallonia
Context :- One of the actions of the Plan 4X4 Pour entreprendre.
Initiative :- Head of Cabinet of Regional Administration of economy in
Wallonia.
Objectives :- To insert company policy in Wallonia into a long-term
perspective that would compromise the factors of structural change impacting on the competitiveness of companies and their environement.
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Foresight of enterprises’ policies in Wallonia
Involvement : a focus on companies’ involvement and decision makers (public and private)
Exercise organised around a Core Group (Cabinet, administration, Walloon Companies’ Union, Belgian and international experts) and thematic groups of companies and key-actors.
Results : Long term issues, strategy, innovative actions
Lessons / difficulties : - Companies taking part were an unrepresentative sample of Walloon
enterprises (large and very innovative enterprises);- Representative of the Minister who fathered the idea of the exercise in the
first place left the Cabinet, so the political relay was no longer ensured;- A mixed pilot group consisting of cabinet members, experts and enterprise
federation members, all heavily involved for the duration of the project, especially the administration that contributed incisive knowledge of existing regional instruments.
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2004 2020
VALUESSUSTAINABILITYINCLUSIVENESS
RESEARCH
INTANGIBLESACCOMPANIMENT
EDUCATIONNETWORKS
Enterprises’ policies
FOUR MAIN ISSUES
FOURMOTORS
TO ACTIVATE
TWOPRIORITIES
Eight dimensions et two prioritiesfor enterprises’ policies in 2020
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Consultation of companies on priority actionsNew institutional efficacity
Local and global competitiveness in the knowledge society
Recreate educational blueprints that are both creative and cultural
Build an economy based on operational, efficient networks
Build the external and internal opening-up of the Walloon economy
New institutional efficacity
Local and global competitiveness in the knowledge society
Recreate educational blueprints that are both creative and cultural
Build an economy based on operational, efficient networks
Build the external and internal opening-up of the Walloon economy
B1 C1
A2
E1D1
A3
A4
A5
B3
B4
B6
C2
C4
C5 D5
D2
D3
E2
E3
E4
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3. Exchanges with the participants : experiences and some key questions of
the participants
1. Context and scope of the exercise2. Desire of foresight (when to launch?)3. Recrutment and commitment of the stakeholders4. Emergence and management of creativity 5. Ownership process6. Building a community of practices at regional level (continuous foresight?)7. Societal learning process8. Dissemination of the work…What else?
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Pascale Van Doren Foresight Unit of The Destree Institute
http://www.destree.org
http://www.wallonie-en-ligne.net