fy 2012 - 2014 commuter connections term analysis results tbp technical committee december 5, 2014...
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FY 2012 - 2014Commuter Connections TERM Analysis
Results
TBP Technical CommitteeDecember 5, 2014
ITEM #8
BY 2040, IT IS PREDICTED THAT THERE WILL BE 4 MILLION MORE TRIPS EACH DAY IN THE REGION -- A 24% INCREASE OVER TODAY
The TPB is the designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for the region
Regional Growth Projections
Today:5.3 million residents 2.7 million workers
Daily Travel – Trips By Mode
Daily Travel – Commute Trips By Mode
Agree to how TDM programs can assist the region to meet congestion reduction and air quality goals. TeamState Departments of TransportationBusinesses/Federal AgenciesLocal governments Transportation Management Associations Transit operatorsVanpool providersCarshare/Bikeshare Services
Develop/Implement programs that will contribute to regional transportation and emission impacts.
Regional Collaboration
» Evaluation Methodology “Blueprint”» Data Collection» Reports» Share Results » Incorporate into Regional Planning Process
TERM Evaluation Cycle
Objective of Evaluation
Apply methodology outlined in Evaluation Framework to:
Estimate effectiveness of Commuter Connections TERMs
Telework Guaranteed Ride Home Employer Outreach Mass Marketing
Document results of Commuter Operations Center
Adjust impacts for overlap among programs
Performance Continuum
Awareness Participation Utilization Impacts and and and Attitudes Satisfaction Influence
Awareness – modes/programs Attitudes – willing to try modes
Participation – services used Satisfaction – with programs
Utilization – mode / travel changes Influences – motivations for change
Impacts of change (travel / AQ / energy)
Impact Calculation Approach
Impact calculation approach uses series of “multiplier” factors, applied to user population
Target / User Population e.g. GRH registrants
Vehicle trips reduced by mode changes
VMT reduced bymode changes
Emissions reduced
“Placements”Users with mode change
X
Placement rate =
X
“Vehicle trip reduction” factor =
X
travel distance =
X
Emission factors =
COG tracking
Factors derived from
users surveys
COG factors
Impacts for All TERMs + COC (Jul 2011 – Jun 2014)
Comparison of collective goals against collective impacts, including Commuter Operations Center
Goal Impact Net
Trips reduced 109,594 131,830 22,236 +20%
VMT reduced 2,162,400 2,473,326 310,926+14%
NOx reduced 1.098 T 1.061 T (0.037) T - 3%
VOC reduced 0.654 T 0.533 T (0.121) T -19%
Met vehicle trip and VMT goals
Shortfall in emission goals due to reduced emission factors for 2015 (cleaner cars) and shift to MOVES emission model
The four TERMs met the collective goals for both vehicle trips (+10%) and VMT reduced (+6%)
CC programs overall (TERMs + COC)
exceeded the VT reduction goal (+20%) and VMT goal (+14%)
TERMs did not meet emissions goals, but this was due to a change in the emission model (MOVES) and reductions in the 2014 emission factors, compared to the factors used when the goals were established in 2005
TERM Analysis Observations
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 20140
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
45,538
96,333
119,190 117,787125,661
131,830Daily Vehicle Trips Reduced
Commuter ConnectionsVehicle Trip Reduction – 1999 to 2014
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 20140
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
2,000,000
2,400,000
800,158
1,774,670
2,220,582
2,455,022 2,418,264 2,473,326Daily VMT Reduced
Commuter ConnectionsVMT Reduction – 1999 to 2014
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 20140.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1.244
2.340
1.705
1.139
0.8701.061
Daily tons NOx Reduced
Commuter Connections NOx Reduced (daily tons) – 1999 to 2014
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 20140.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.657
1.164
0.845
0.6390.538 0.533
Daily tons VOC Reduced
Commuter Connections VOC Reduced (daily tons) – 1999 through 2014
2008 2011 20140.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
7.407.03
11.75Annual tons PM 2.5 Reduced
PM 2.5 Reduced (annual tons) – 2008 to 2014Commuter Connections TERMs + Commuter Operations Center
2008 2011 20140.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00275.0
245.0
280.0
Annual tons PM 2.5 Precursor NOx Reduced
Precursor NOx Reduced (annual tons) – 2008 to 2014Commuter Connections TERMs + Commuter Operations Center
2008 2011 20140
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000 291,608282,244
261,497
Annual tons CO2 – Greenhouse Gases Reduced
CO2 Reduced (annual tons) – 2008 to 2014Commuter Connections TERMs + Commuter Operations Center
Next Steps
• Report Endorsement• Report Publication and Release• Program Cost Effectiveness Calculation• Integrate results into regional air quality
conformity determination and Congestion Management Process
Questions?Nicholas Ramfos
Director, Alternative Commute ProgramsMetropolitan Washington Council of Governments