fy 2019/q4 2019 results presentation - the navigator...
TRANSCRIPT
February 12th 2020
FY 2019/Q4 2019
Results Presentation
This presentation is intended to provide a general overview of The Navigator Company S.A.’s business and does not purport to deal with all aspects and details regarding The Navigator Company S.A.. Accordingly, no representation, undertaking or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by The Navigator Company S.A. or any of its subsidiaries’ undertakings, affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisors or any other person as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation or of the views given or implied or any other material discussion in connection with this presentation. This presentation has been prepared by The Navigator Company S.A. for information purposes only. The Navigator Company S.A. or any of its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisers or any other person shall not have any liability whatsoever (including in case of omission, negligence or otherwise) for any losses, errors or omissions howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith or with respect to their reliance upon the completeness and accuracy of any such information, as well as any damages resulting hereof.
DISCLAIMER
1
2
<<
Executive Directors (2019)
João Castello Branco
António Redondo
Fernando Araújo
João Paulo Oliveira
Nuno Santos
Investor Relations Joana Appleton
PARTICIPATION
Outlook Market &
Group Performance
Main Highlights
01 02 03
<<
3
FY 2019/Q4 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION
4
FY 2019 HIGHLIGHTS <<
Adverse market conditions with strong decline in pulp prices and weakening of European demand EBITDA declined 18.3% YoY pressured by lower pulp prices, lower paper volume and higher production costs Capex of € 158 million, mainly recurring & environment Free cash flow remained strong to € 186 million with lower capex and improvement in working capital Dividend payment of € 200 million in April and acquisition of owns shares totalling € 18 million
In millions € FY 2019
FY 2018
%CHANGE 19/18
Turnover 1 688 1 691 -0.2%
EBITDA 372 455 -18.3%
EBITDA /Sales 22% 26.9% -4.9 pp
CAPEX 158 216 -27%
Adjusted Free
Cash Flow
1
186 143 28%
Remunerated NetDebt/EBITDA
2
1.93 1.5 0.43
(1) FCF in 2018 adjusted from pellet receivables (2) IFRS impact: Net Debt / EBITDA 2019 = 2.05; Net Debt / EBITDA restated = 1.6
5
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MAIN QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS
439 422 432 420 414
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Turnover (M €)
115 105 102 93 72
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
EBITDA (M €)
50
10
91
25
58
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Free Cash Flow (M €)
68
32 36 20
70
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Capex (M €)
Weak market conditions continued in Q4 with further decline in pulp and paper prices Performance was hurt by global strike at the Group´s pulp and paper mills Turnover was down 1.6% in Q4 vs Q3 essentially due to lower tissue volumes and lower prices for pulp and paper EBITDA in Q4 impacted by lower pulp prices and higher production costs Free Cash Flow improved significantly
FY 2018 1 692 M€
FY 2019 1 688 M€
FY 2019 372 M€
FY 2018 455 M€
FY 2019 183 M€
FY 2018 143 M€
FY 2019 158 M€
FY 2018 216 M€
6
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Q4 2019 – ADVERSE QUARTER
Tough market conditions, with continuous price pressure:
• Pulp price continued to decrease significantly, falling 14% QoQ
• Benchmark for paper price fell 2% QoQ
• Navigator pulp price decreased 9% and paper price -0.8%
In spite of adverse market conditions, Navigator pulp sales volume performed very positively, increasing 10% while paper volumes were stable
Group performance impacted by planned and unplanned stoppages, namely:
• Prolonged maintenance at Aveiro Tissue mill (22 days) reduced significantly volume sold (-20% Q4 vs Q3 2019);
• Global strike that occurred in November at Figueira da Foz, Setúbal and Vila de Velha de Ródão mills
Operational instability impact on costs and booking of fixed costs explain most of the negative QoQ EBITDA decline
Free Cash Flow improved due to better working capital management
7
<< 12M 2019 Recurring EBITDA
Increase in volumes is offset by decrease in prices and increase in costs (Energy, Wood and Chemicals)
A B C Pulp price fall offsetting paper price increase
Positive volumes for pulp and tissue outbalance negative impact of paper volumes
Negative impact of variable costs: energy, wood, chemicals; improvement in external fibers and personnel costs
9
Volume
-45
Price
R18
-37
Costs Other
372
R19
455
-10
-83 (-18%)
A C B
UWF
Pulp
Tissue
UWF
Pulp
Tissue
Electricity unit cost
Natural gas unit cost
EURUSD
Fixed costs
External fibers
Outlook Market &
Group Performance
Main Highlights
01 02 03
<<
8
FY 2019/Q4 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION
PIX Europe
9
<< SIGNIFICANT CORRECTION IN PULP
PRICES THROUGHOUT 2019
Last PIX (04/02/2020): 680 USD/ton (0%) YTD 2020
Last PIX (04/02/2020): 617 €/ton (1.5%) YTD 2020
USD/ton BHKP EUR/ton BHKP
2016 2015 2014 2017 2018 2019
Average Pulp price in 2019:
- 855 $/ton 2019
- 762 €/ton 2019
Average Pulp price for 2014 - 2018 :
- 817 $/ton
- 701 €/ton 300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1 11 21 31 41 51 9 19 29 39 49 6 16 26 36 46 4 14 24 34 44 2 12 22 32 42 52 10 20 30 40 50
Eur
/ Ton
USD
/ T
on
Week
10
RECAP ON THE PULP MARKET
• During Q4 2018, market pulp demand experienced a significant decrease, falling 1.7 million tons YoY. China accounted for 91% of this reduction and Europe followed 2/3 months later. With Chinese buyers reducing pulp purchases, prices began to fall and producers stock started to build-up at Chinese (& European) ports
• From Q4 2018 to end Q1 2019, Chinese big pulp buyers reduced significantly their purchases, forcing a spiral of price reduction in pulp prices; producers stocks continued to increase while buyers used a significant part of their own inventories
• From Q2 onward, demand for hardwood in China picked up, increasing 8% YTD Nov
• With production cuts (maintenance and market driven) from major pulp suppliers in Latin America and Asia during Q3 and Q4 and stronger demand, stocks decreased significantly during H2 2019 (but still remained above normal levels)
• Demand in Europe remained weak at year end and prices continued to decrease during Q4 2019
• Bottom of price cycle has been reached; benchmark for prices in Europe has been stable for some weeks and prices in China have slightly increased since the beginning of the year.
<<
Source: PPPC; The Navigator Company
Source: PPPC; The Navigator Company; *The Navigator Company based on EMGE CS Index and Own Data – Indicative for sheeted products
11
UPDATE ON PAPER MARKET <<
YTD Nov 2019
UWF CWF UME CME
-2.6% -8.0% -11.5% -11.0%
Avg L5Y -0.3% -3.1% -4.0% -5.8%
Recent decline of P&W demand well above trend, indicating not only the effects of economic cooldown but also a destocking movement in key markets for Navigator, namely Europe and Middle East and North Africa.
-6.2%
Total
-2.3%
Global Printing & Writing Demand
100
125
65
Beginning 2018 Beginning 2019 End 2019
Level of Inventories - European Supply Chain* (Index)
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 5 13 21 29 37 45 53 8 16 24 32 40 48 4 12 20 28 36 44 52 8 16 24 32 40 48 4 12 20 28 36 44 52
Eu
r/T
on
Week
2014 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017
Source: FOEX
EUROPEAN MARKET PAPER PRICE – A4 B-COPY
12
PAPER PRICES IN STABLE TREND
Last PIX (04/02/2020): 865 €/ton (-1.5 % YTD)
Average A4 B-COPY price in 2019:
- 903 €/ton 2019
Average A4 B-COPY price (2010-2019):
- 846 €/ton
Av. 2016: 823 €/ton (Var. W1-52: -3.5%)
Av. 2017: 815 €/ton (Var. W1-52: +4.1%)
Av. 2018: 873 €/ton (Var. W1-52:+9.0%)
<<
Av. 2019: 903 €/ton (Var. W1-52: -2.7%)
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 5 13 21 29 37 45 53 8 16 24 32 40 48 4 12 20 28 36 44 52 8 16 24 32 40 48 4 12 20 28 36 44 52
Eur/
Ton
Week
2014 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017
A v e r a g e p r i c e i n 2 0 1 9 a b o v e a v e r a g e p r i c e i n t h e l a s t 1 0 y e a r s
13
UWF MARKET CONDITIONS
D E M A N D
P U L P P R I C E
Paper demand falling above trend in 2019, facing a severe pipeline destocking; UWF continues to show the highest resilience among the major graphic papers;
Hardwood pulp prices seem to have stabilized in China and Europe
Several producers announced conversion / shutdowns of UWF in 2019 in Europe (-200 kton), US (-757 kton), partially offsetting new capacities entering the market; balance between new capacities and closures for 2018-2020 is estimated to be close to zero
Even though pix price avg. 2019 is still 3% above 2018 (903 € in 2019 vs 873 € in 2018), paper prices should remain under pressure (in the short term) especially in the USA and in some geographies and products in Europe
B A L A N C E S / D
P R I C E L E V E L
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NAVIGATOR PAPER & PULP PERFORMANCE
PAPER PERFORMANCE
• UWF sales volume decreased 4.4% FY 2019 vs FY 2018, and remained flat from Q3 to Q4.
• Several events impacted UWF volumes (slower ramp-up of heavyweights production, strikes in Setúbal and Figueira da Foz and unplanned stoppages) but production was also managed by Navigator to match current market situation.
• Average price for FY 2019 was slightly above FY 2018 and average Q4 vs Q3 price adjusted mainly due to product mix
• Navigator paper sales turnover down 4% FY 2019 vs FY 2018 to € 1,198 million and remained flat at 293 million in Q4 vs Q3 2019.
PULP PERFORMANCE
• Production impacted by prolonged maintenance stoppages and strikes
• Market sales in volume increased 24% FY2019 vs FY2018 and 9.5% in Q4 vs Q3 2019, sustained by increased availability of pulp due to lower paper integration and increase in capacity completed in 2018
• Higher volumes partially offset decrease in prices: pulp turnover decreased 1.2% YoY and was flat Q4oQ3 2019
15
<< GROWTH IN THE TISSUE BUSINESS
• Sales turnover increased to € 132 million, representing a growth of 45% in 2019 vs 2018;
• Global volume of tissue sold increased to 96 kton (52% YoY), sustained by new capacity in Aveiro;
• Sales of finished products increased 22% to 75 ktons and reels increased 11x to 21 ktons; even though prices for both finished products and reels increased YoY;
• Average tissue price reflects mix effect of higher percentage of reels in global sales
37% Consumer
2018: 39%
40% Away-from-Home +C&C
2018: 59%
23% Parent Reels
2018: 2%
40% Portugal
2018: 51%
30% Spain
2018: 35%
30% Extra-Iberia
2018: 13%
Revenue by segment
(2019)
Revenue by geography
(2019)
16
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CAPEX OF € 158 MILLION ( V S 2 1 6 € M I L L I O N)
M €
CAPEX
* Conclusion of Tissue Cacia + Heavy Weights + Pulp Capacity increase in Figueira da Foz
158 16
24
118
CAPEX FY19 Expansion/ otherCapex
Environment &Regulatory
Maintenance &recurring capex
17
ROADMAP TO A CARBON NEUTRAL COMPANY 2035
1st Company in Portugal committed to achieve Carbon Neutrality 15
years ahead of schedule
€ 158 M in planned investment towards
offseting carbon emissions of which
€ 24 M already done in 2019
Forests managed by Navigator represent a
carbon stock equivalent to 1.5 M
cars driving the Earth’s circumference
Main investments:
• New Biomass boiler at FF • Biomass in Lime Kilns • Combustion optimization
18
<< FREE CASH FLOW IMPROVEMENT
Free Cash Flow evolved positively to € 186 million and compares favorably with adjusted FCF of € 143 million in 2018
M €
158
22 24
186
307
4
79
Operating Cash Flow
R19
CAPEX Inventories Clients & suppliers State & Public Entities Other Free Cash Flow R19
YoY -70.4 +58.5 -85.1* -64.7 +141.2 +38.3 -24.9
*pellets divestment effect
19
<< NET DEBT at € 715 MILLION
641 617
738 742 693
559
740 732 683 677
796 776 715
1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9
1.7
1.3
1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5
1.8 1.9 1.9
Q42016
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Net debt Net debt/EBITDA
M €
Net debt increased € 32M* vs year-end 2018, after paying € 200M in dividends and acquiring € 18M of own shares
* Without IFRS 16
Current Average Cost of Debt (December 2019):
1.70%
20
Debt Rate Profile (December 2019):
Fixed Variable
85% 15%
CONSERVATIVE DEBT PROFILE
Taking advantage of favorable market conditions, Navigator has been renegotiating its debt, seeking to diversify sources of funds and to extend average tenure.
Debt maturity profile
Total debt: € 877.1 million Average maturity: 3.5 years
13.2
225.5
50.7
294.3
94.3 75.7 123.4
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026-2028
FY 2019/Q4 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION
Outlook Market &
Group Performance
Main Highlights
01 02 03
<<
21
i PULP PAPER
• Increase in global demand for pulp, sustained by China and recovery in Europe
• Producers inventories corrected throughout H2 2019, but stocks at ports still high (+1.5 M tons vs “normal”)
• Recent price increases announced in Softwood (China, Europe & North America) and Hardwood (China & North America)
• Uncertainty remains over economic impact of Corona Virus and trade wars
TISSUE
• Demand continues to present interesting growth rates, even in a context of new capacity additions
• Group will further consolidate its new operations and increase in global sales as the industrial operations matures.
22
<<
Adverse market conditions, operational issues and inflation in some key production cost factors have pressured results Additional cost efficiency measures planned for 2020 and 2021
• Low pulp prices continue to pressure paper price
• Pipeline stocks at key markets for Navigator at low levels at the beginning of the year
• Pulp and Paper mills in Finland stopped production for 15 days due to strikes, impacting UWF and pulp output
• Political instability in Middle East and market disruption via trade wars may impact negatively demand
Outlook & Challenges for 2020
i
23
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Refocus on the Core
Ensure a Growth Outlook
Reinforce the Sustainability
Agenda
PRIORITIES FOR NAVIGATOR
February 12th 2020
FY 2019/Q4 2019
Results Presentation