GA EPD Permit & SIP Modeling Update

James W. BoylanGeorgia EPD – Air Protection Branch

Manager, Data and Modeling Unit

AWMA Regulatory Update ConferenceMay 1, 2014 – Atlanta, GA

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Data & Modeling UnitKeith Bentley

Air Protection Branch

Jimmy Johnston, P.E.Planning & Support Program

Jim Boylan, Ph.D.Data & Modeling Unit

Permit Modeling TeamYan Huang, Ph.D.

Henian Zhang, Ph.D.Yunhee Kim, Ph.D.

SIP Modeling TeamByeong Kim, Ph.D.

Tao Zeng, Ph.D.Di Tian, Ph.D.

Permit ModelingUpdate

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Permit Modeling

Steady-State Gaussian plume dispersion models: AERMOD and ISC

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Permit Modeling Guidance• Georgia EPD PSD Permit Application Guidance

Document (09/18/12)– http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/html/sspp/

psd_guidance_document.htm• Guideline for Ambient Impact Assessment of

Toxic Air Pollutant Emissions, 1998– http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/downloads/

otherforms/infodocs/toxguide.pdf• Guideline for Modeling PM10 Ambient Concentration

in Areas Impacted by Quarry Operation Producing Crushed Stone - August 7, 2012 – http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/downloads/

sspp/modeling/quarryguideline_august2012.pdf

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Meteorological Data

• GA EPD has develop 5-years of AERMET meteorological data for each ASOS surface and upper air pairing– Pairing based on distance, climatological zone, and

data completeness criteria– 2007-2011 data, except KAMG/KJAX is 2006-2010 – Last updated on April 4, 2013

• All data sets are available on-line– http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/html/sspp/

modeling/aermetdata.htm

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Surface Roughness Update

• Previously, EPD provided data sets with three different surface roughness values (0.05, 0.5, 1.0) and the applicant ran AERSURFACE at the project site to find the most representative value.

• Now, meteorological data is processed using the surface roughness at the airport– 12 different sectors

• Applicant will provide a justification for representativeness in modeling protocol

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Surface/Upper Station PairingsKCHA/KFFC

KGVL/KFFC

KRMG/KFFC

KVPC/KFFC

KFFC/KFFC

KATL/KFFC

KAHN/KFFC

KDNL/KFFC

KMCN/KFFC

KCSG/KFFC

KABY/KTLH

KAMG/KJAX

KSAV/KCHS

KSSI/KJAX

KVLD/KTLH

KTLH/KTLH

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Background Concentrations

• GA EPD has develop background concentrations for each county based on the 2010-2012 design values– PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, Pb

• Will update to 2011-2013 design values by the end of May

• All data sets are available on-line– http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/html/sspp/

modeling.htm

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Off-Site Emissions Inventory

• GA EPD will create a statewide emission inventory for the PSD air impact analysis– NAAQS & Increment– PM10, PM2.5, NOx, SO2, and CO– Follow 40 CFR 51 Appendix W – Contractor support from AMEC

• GA EPD will maintain future updates to the emission inventory through the permit application process.

• All emissions will be available on-line

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Secondary Impacts• In 2012, EPA granted the Sierra Club’s

Petition to engage in rule making to evaluate updates to Appendix W and, as appropriate, incorporate new analytical techniques or models for ozone and secondary PM2.5.– AERMOD does not have the ability to model

ozone and secondary PM2.5 impacts

• EPA’s Timeline– 11th Conference on Air Quality Modeling (2014)

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Options to Consider…• SCI-CHEM and CALPUFF

– Lagrangian dispersion models with full chemistry

• PM2.5 Off-Set Trading Ratios – EPA’s default 40:1 for SO2:PM2.5 and 200:1 for

NOx:PM2.5 were withdrawn by EPA– Need to perform region specific fine grid photochemical

modeling to develop new ratios

• Ozone Emission Sensitivities– ppb ozone/ton NOx, ppb ozone/ton VOC

• Full blown photochemical modeling?– Resource intensive (computer and personnel)

PM2.5 Offset Ratios - Annual

• SO2 and NOx offset ratios vary by season of the year and distance from the source:

Distance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

< 1 km 80:1 35:1 20:1 40:1

1 – 4 km 40:1 20:1 10:1 25:1

4 – 10 km 25:1 10:1 7:1 18:1

> 10 km 15:1 7:1 5:1 10:1

Distance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

< 1 km 250:1 50:1 50:1 120:1

1 – 4 km 160:1 35:1 35:1 120:1

4 – 10 km 80:1 20:1 20:1 N/A

> 10 km 40:1 20:1 20:1 N/A

SO2

Ratios

NOxRatios

PM2.5 Offset Ratios - Seasonal

Tier 1 Approach

Distance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

< 1 km 80:1 35:1 20:1 40:1

1 – 4 km 40:1 20:1 10:1 25:1

4 – 10 km 25:1 10:1 7:1 18:1

> 10 km 15:1 7:1 5:1 10:1

Distance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

< 1 km 250:1 50:1 50:1 120:1

1 – 4 km 160:1 35:1 35:1 120:1

4 – 10 km 80:1 20:1 20:1 N/A

> 10 km 40:1 20:1 20:1 N/A

SO2

Ratios

NOxRatios

Tier 1 “equivalent” direct PM2.5 emissions from SO2 and NOx can be accounted for by scaling the standard AERMOD output files.

Tier 2 Approach

Distance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

< 1 km 80:1 35:1 20:1 40:1

1 – 4 km 40:1 20:1 10:1 25:1

4 – 10 km 25:1 10:1 7:1 18:1

> 10 km 15:1 7:1 5:1 10:1

Distance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

< 1 km 250:1 50:1 50:1 120:1

1 – 4 km 160:1 35:1 35:1 120:1

4 – 10 km 80:1 20:1 20:1 N/A

> 10 km 40:1 20:1 20:1 N/A

SO2

Ratios

NOxRatios

Tier 2 “equivalent” direct PM2.5 emissions from SO2 and NOx can be accounted for by scaling the standard AERMOD output files.

Tier 3 Approach

Distance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

< 1 km 80:1 35:1 20:1 40:1

1 – 4 km 40:1 20:1 10:1 25:1

4 – 10 km 25:1 10:1 7:1 18:1

> 10 km 15:1 7:1 5:1 10:1

Distance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

< 1 km 250:1 50:1 50:1 120:1

1 – 4 km 160:1 35:1 35:1 120:1

4 – 10 km 80:1 20:1 20:1 N/A

> 10 km 40:1 20:1 20:1 N/A

SO2

Ratios

NOxRatios

Tier 3 “equivalent” direct PM2.5 emissions from SO2 and NOx should be added to the actual direct PM2.5 emissions prior to running AERMOD.

Tier 4 Approach

Distance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

< 1 km 80:1 35:1 20:1 40:1

1 – 4 km 40:1 20:1 10:1 25:1

4 – 10 km 25:1 10:1 7:1 18:1

> 10 km 15:1 7:1 5:1 10:1

Distance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

< 1 km 250:1 50:1 50:1 120:1

1 – 4 km 160:1 35:1 35:1 120:1

4 – 10 km 80:1 20:1 20:1 N/A

> 10 km 40:1 20:1 20:1 N/A

SO2

Ratios

NOxRatios

Tier 4 “equivalent” direct PM2.5 emissions from SO2 and NOx will require scaling quarterly AERMOD outputs followed by recalculation of annual and daily PM2.5 impacts.

Example PSD Application• Direct PM2.5 emissions = 118.30 TYP• SO2 emissions = 190.93 TPY• NOx emissions = 340.65 TPY

• PM2.5 Scaling Factor = (SO2 TPY/SO2 Ratio) + (NOx TPY/NOx Ratio) + PM2.5 TPY PM2.5 TPY

DistanceQ3 SO2 Ratio

Q3 NOx Ratio

Scaling Factor

< 1 km 20 50 1.138

1 - 4 km 10 35 1.244

4 - 10 km 7 20 1.375

> 10 km 5 20 1.467

Annual PM2.5 – No Secondary

Annual PM2.5 – Tier 1

Annual PM2.5 vs. SIL

Daily PM2.5 – No Secondary

Daily PM2.5 – Tier 1

Daily PM2.5 – Tier 2

Daily PM2.5 vs. SIL

Can I Use These Offset Ratios?• GA EPD will not require applicants to account for

secondary PM2.5 formation until the final EPA PM2.5 Modeling Guidance is released.– DO NOT USE THE OFFSET RATIOS IN THIS PRESENTATION WITHOUT

PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL FROM GA EPD.

• Tier 1 and Tier 2 approaches involve directly scaling the standard AERMOD output files.

• Tier 3 approach involves scaling actual direct PM2.5 emissions prior to running AERMOD.

• Tier 4 approach will require scaling quarterly AERMOD outputs followed by recalculation of annual and daily PM2.5 impacts.

SIP ModelingUpdate

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Attainment SIP Updates• Georgia is meeting the 1997 ozone NAAQS (85

ppb) and the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS (15 g/m3)– Ozone maintenance plan for Atlanta was approved– PM2.5 maintenance plans for Atlanta, Macon, Floyd

County, and Chattanooga are pending

• Atlanta was designed nonattainment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS (75 ppb)– 15 counties– “Marginal” ozone areas do not require modeling

• Georgia did not recommend any areas non-attainment for the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS (12 g/m3)– Waiting for EPA official designations

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SEMAP Project

• SouthEastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project– Managed through SESARM– Same group of states that were involved

with SAMI, VISTAS, and ASIP• AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV

• 2007 and 2018 annual modeling with CMAQv5.01– 36 km (CONUS) and 12 km grids– Ozone, PM2.5, Regional Haze

CMAQ is a Grid-Based Model

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SEMAP 12-km Modeling Domain

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Air Quality Modeling SystemMeteorology (WRF)

Air Quality (CMAQ)

Emissions (SMOKE)

EmissionsInventory

(NIF)

MOVESRates

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2007 Ozone Design Values

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2018 Ozone Design Values

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Ozone Sensitivities• Start with 2018 modeling results• Perform emission sensitivity runs

– Ozone season (5 months) on 12-km grid– Statewide 30% emission reductions

• NOx and VOCs individually• Point, area, mobile, NONROAD, MAR

– 14 geographic regions• Ten individual SEMAP states• Maryland• MANE-VU (minus MD), LADCO, CENRAP

– 2 precursors x 14 regions = 28 model runs

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Normalized Sensitivities• Divided the relative sensitivity from MATS for

the home state by the annual average emissions reduction (ppt/TPD)– (DVFNOx x 1000)/TPDNOx

– (DVFVOC x 1000)/TPDVOC

• Created stacked bar charts of normalized NOx and VOC sensitivities for each monitor

• Calculated state average normalized NOx and VOC sensitivities

• Calculated ratio of normalized NOx sensitivity to normalized VOC sensitivity for each monitor

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Emission Reductions (30%)

NOx (TPD) VOC (TPD)

Alabama 190 146

Florida 378 403

Georgia 251 223

Kentucky 185 133

Mississippi 156 113

North Carolina 190 242

South Carolina 119 112

Tennessee 223 174

Virginia 201 197

West Virginia 111 53

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NOx vs. VOC Ratios

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Interstate Contributions• Examined state-by-state contributions at downwind sites

with DVF > 75 ppb in 2018• Divided state-by-state 30% NOx contributions from MATS

by 0.3 to obtain 100% NOx contribution from each state– Assumes NOx sensitivities are linear to 100%

• Removed contributions from non-SEMAP states and from home states

• Identified SEMAP states that contributed more than various thresholds:– 1.0 ppb– 0.75 ppb

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NAA State Contributions

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STATE Site DV-2007 DV-2018 (1x1) AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WVCT 90010017 86.3 75.1 -0.075 -0.025 -0.125 -0.100 -0.050 -0.426 -0.100 -0.125 -1.427 -0.350CT 90013007 87 75.4 -0.075 -0.025 -0.126 -0.126 -0.050 -0.553 -0.126 -0.126 -1.885 -0.377GA 130890002 90.7 74.3 -1.214 -0.050 -0.743 -0.297 -0.347 -0.248 -1.337 -0.198 -0.099

GA 131210055 90.3 76.2 -0.483 -0.025 -0.914 -0.127 -0.737 -0.432 -1.245 -0.305 -0.305GA 131510002 92 74.6 -0.845 -0.050 -0.547 -0.224 -0.348 -0.199 -1.243 -0.224 -0.149GA 132470001 91.7 73.3 -1.222 -0.049 -0.366 -0.538 -0.220 -0.122 -1.735 -0.122 -0.098LA 220050004 81.7 76.3 -0.509 -0.229 -0.305 -0.102 -0.661 -0.102 -0.102 -0.203 -0.051 -0.025LA 220330003 83 76.2 -0.711 -0.203 -0.305 -0.203 -1.295 -0.076 -0.076 -0.381 -0.051 -0.025LA 220470012 81.3 72.8 -0.679 -0.146 -0.291 -0.170 -0.922 -0.049 -0.049 -0.388 -0.024 -0.024LA 220511001 79.3 79.9 -1.012 -0.320 -0.639 -0.186 -1.625 -0.160 -0.107 -0.426 -0.107 -0.027LA 220770001 82 75 -0.575 -0.225 -0.325 -0.275 -1.500 -0.050 -0.075 -0.400 -0.050 -0.050LA 220930002 74 76.6 -0.485 -0.357 -0.434 -0.128 -0.843 -0.077 -0.102 -0.383 -0.051 -0.026

MI 260050003 86.7 75.6 -0.025 -0.025 -0.025 -0.025 -0.025 -0.025 -0.025 -0.025 -0.025 -0.025MI 260991003 81.3 75.8 -0.480 -0.025 -0.152 -0.682 -0.177 -0.051 -0.051 -0.404 -0.051 -0.101MI 261630019 81.7 79.9 -0.533 -0.027 -0.160 -0.692 -0.133 -0.053 -0.053 -0.373 -0.053 -0.107MO 290990012 86 78.5 -0.026 0.000 -0.026 -0.392 0.000 -0.026 0.000 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026MO 291890004 82 75.6 -0.025 0.000 -0.025 -0.428 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.025 -0.050MO 291890014 82.3 75.9 -0.025 0.000 0.000 -0.607 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.025 -0.025 -0.126MO 295100086 83.5 77.5 -0.052 -0.026 -0.052 -0.542 -0.052 -0.026 -0.026 -0.077 -0.026 -0.052NJ 340070003 87.5 76 -0.127 -0.025 -0.127 -0.127 -0.076 -0.253 -0.051 -0.177 -0.633 -0.456NJ 340170006 85 75.4 -0.025 -0.025 -0.101 -0.126 -0.025 -0.528 -0.126 -0.050 -1.332 -0.327NY 360610135 76 75.2 -0.100 -0.025 -0.075 -0.150 -0.075 -0.351 -0.075 -0.125 -1.529 -0.401

NY 361030002 85.3 75.8 -0.051 -0.025 -0.101 -0.076 -0.025 -0.556 -0.101 -0.076 -2.375 -0.354NY 361030009 88 76.8 -0.026 -0.026 -0.051 -0.077 -0.026 -0.282 -0.051 -0.026 -1.562 -0.282NY 361192004 86.3 73.3 -0.098 -0.049 -0.147 -0.147 -0.073 -0.513 -0.122 -0.147 -1.295 -0.415TX 480391004 86.7 78.7 -0.393 -0.026 -0.289 -0.236 -0.866 -0.157 -0.079 -0.446 -0.079 -0.026TX 482010024 83.3 74.1 -0.272 -0.099 -0.123 -0.099 -0.593 -0.074 -0.074 -0.173 -0.049 -0.025TX 482010026 80.3 79.1 -0.211 -0.079 -0.132 -0.026 -0.290 -0.053 -0.026 -0.079 -0.026 -0.026TX 482010029 86.7 76 -0.431 -0.253 -0.203 -0.127 -0.887 -0.076 -0.076 -0.228 -0.076 -0.025TX 482010051 81 75.8 -0.430 -0.076 -0.253 -0.227 -0.960 -0.126 -0.076 -0.404 -0.076 -0.025TX 482010055 90.3 84.6 -0.479 -0.085 -0.282 -0.254 -1.072 -0.141 -0.085 -0.451 -0.085 -0.028TX 482010062 81 82.1 -0.356 -0.027 -0.301 -0.274 -0.821 -0.192 -0.082 -0.520 -0.082 -0.027TX 482010066 86.7 82.6 -0.661 -0.193 -0.413 -0.220 -1.129 -0.248 -0.110 -0.496 -0.138 -0.055TX 482010070 75.7 77.5 -0.698 -0.052 -0.594 -0.181 -1.343 -0.413 -0.155 -0.749 -0.181 -0.052TX 482010075 76.3 78.1 -0.703 -0.052 -0.599 -0.182 -1.354 -0.417 -0.156 -0.755 -0.182 -0.052TX 482010416 83.5 85.6 -0.571 -0.029 -0.314 -0.285 -1.113 -0.171 -0.057 -0.542 -0.086 -0.029TX 482011015 82 80.8 -0.215 -0.081 -0.135 -0.027 -0.296 -0.054 -0.027 -0.081 -0.027 -0.027TX 482011034 78 85.4 -0.142 -0.057 -0.085 -0.028 -0.171 -0.028 -0.028 -0.057 -0.028 -0.028TX 482011039 87 83.1 -0.332 -0.083 -0.305 -0.249 -0.748 -0.194 -0.111 -0.499 -0.111 -0.028TX 482011050 81.3 77.8 -0.311 -0.078 -0.182 -0.182 -0.596 -0.104 -0.052 -0.337 -0.078 -0.026TX 482450009 78.3 75.9 -0.481 -0.152 -0.278 -0.202 -0.632 -0.051 -0.051 -0.202 -0.025 -0.025TX 482450101 79 72.2 -0.144 -0.024 -0.048 -0.144 -0.794 -0.024 -0.024 -0.241 -0.024 -0.024WI 551170006 83.3 76.5 -0.153 -0.025 -0.306 -0.280 -0.025 -0.025 -0.051 -0.306 -0.025 -0.025

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SEMAP Next Steps• Examine SEMAP 2018 projections for

PM2.5 and Regional Haze• Replicate EPA 2011 and 2018 modeling

– May adjust 2018 EGUs based on ERTAC model– May replace SMOKE-MOVES emissions with

inventory mode MOVES– May adjust VOC emissions from fires– May perform NOx emission sensitivities

• Create 2028 emission inventory and perform 2028 modeling for Regional Haze

SO2 SIP ModelingUpdate

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EPA SO2 Documents and Rules• SO2 NAAQS Designations Source-Oriented

Monitoring Technical Assistance Document– December, 2013

• SO2 NAAQS Designations Modeling Technical Assistance Document– December, 2013

• Data Requirements Rule for the 1-Hour Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Primary National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS)– April 17, 2014

• Guidance for 1-Hour SO2 Nonattainment Area SIP Submissions– April 23, 2014

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SO2 Designations• Round 1

– October 4, 2013: EPA designated 29 areas nonattainment in 16 states based on monitored violations

– SIPs are due April 4, 2015 (18 months after effective date)

• Round 2– January 15, 2016: States submit list of SO2 sources to EPA

and indicate modeling or monitoring approach• Also, modeling protocols are due at this time

– January 13, 2017: Modeling analyses due to EPA– December, 2017: EPA makes designations based on

modeling analysis

• Round 3– July 1, 2016: States submit monitoring details to EPA as part

of their annual monitoring network plan– January 1, 2017: New monitors operational– 2020: EPA makes designations based on 2017-2019

monitoring data

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SO2 Threshold Options

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Large SO2 Sources in GeorgiaSite Name County 2010 (TPY) 2011 (TPY) 2012 (TPY) Option 1 Option 2 Option 3Ga Power Company - Plant Bowen Bartow 7,618.00 5,888.85 3,118.87 Yes Yes YesGa Power Company - Plant Kraft Chatham 8,340.92 2,806.00 1,190.13 No No NoInternational Paper - Savannah Chatham 5,871.79 4,232.78 3,622.41 Yes No NoSouthern States Phosphate & Fertilizer Chatham 1,211.44 1,194.00 No No NoGa Power Company - Plant McDonough/Atkinson Cobb 17,115.00 18,307.10 424.39 No No NoGa Power Company - Plant Yates Coweta 54,256.80 47,529.56 29,788.83 Yes Yes YesGeorgia-Pacific Corp Cedar Springs Operation Early 3,897.76 1,906.84 860.09 No No NoGa Power Co Plt McIntosh Effingham 2,506.20 691.81 0.13 No No NoGeorgia-Pacific Consumer Products (Savannah River Mill) Effingham 3,517.09 3,724.79 3,036.25 Yes No NoGa Power Company - Plant Hammond Floyd 2,417.66 2,174.44 978.26 No No NoTEMPLE INLAND (International Paper - Rome) Floyd 2,116.72 2,202.81 2,158.63 Yes No NoGa Power Company - Plant Wansley Heard 2,346.12 3,084.53 2,101.73 Yes Yes NoSP Newsprint Company, LLC Laurens 1,145.72 1,393.83 1,407.30 No No NoGa Power Company - Plant Scherer Monroe 69,861.00 50,487.98 42,347.74 Yes Yes YesGa Power Company - Plant Branch Putnam 53,258.10 55,179.80 20,984.20 Yes Yes YesThermal Ceramics Richmond 1,980.13 1,698.02 No No NoInternational Paper - Augusta Mill Richmond 2,174.98 1,709.82 459.17 No No No

* BOLD indicates source is in a CBSA > 1M** RED HIGHLIGHT indicates source will retire or converting to natural gas by 2016

Based on 2012 SO2 emissions– Option 1 6 sources– Option 2 3 sources– Option 3 2 sources

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2012 SO2 Emissions

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2010-2012 Max. SO2 Emissions

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Jim Boylan, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources

4244 International Parkway, Suite 120Atlanta, GA 30354

James.Boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851

Contact Information