Why Investments in Roads in SSA Have Not Produced the Expected Impact?

How to Improve Public Spending in Roads in Zambia?

Gal Raballand, graballand@worldbank.org

1Presentation outlineI Where does stand Zambia in terms of infrastructure stock and transport services prices?

II Is it wishful to target a full network in good condition?

III A way forward?

2What is important for efficient roads investments?3Road planning (including fiscal sustainability),

Works procurement (value for money),

Execution of works and supervision.Some quick facts and figures on the road sector in Zambia4Network length and coverage,

Road condition,

Spending,

Economic challenges.

What is the road network in Zambia?5

Road typeResponsible agencyEstimated Network (km)CRN Paved(km)CRN Unpaved (km)CRN Total(km)TrunkRDA3,1163,024923,116MainRDA3,7012,2051,4963,701DistrictRDA12,3031,36210,94112,303UrbanRDA5,5972,8122,7855,597Primary feederRDA15,31115,31115,311Secondary feederMLGH10,060Tertiary feederMLGH4,424Park roadsZAWA6,607Community roadsMLGH5,000Total66,1199,40330,62540,028Road density compared to population61 Namibia35.67 2 South Africa8.443 Gabon6.704 Equatorial Guinea6.575 Central African Republic6.416 Zambia6.377 Botswana5.898 Chad4.209 Congo, Rep.3.8410 Angola3.8111 Guinea3.6912 Liberia3.6413 Lesotho3.3514 Guinea-Bissau3.3115 Somalia3.2516 Congo, Dem. Rep.3.2117 Madagascar3.1718 Cote d'Ivoire3.0819 Mauritania2.9820 Swaziland2.9021 Tanzania2.5922 Sierra Leone2.5923 Malawi2.5324 Cape Verde2.5025 Cameroon2.36(in kms per thousands of inhabitants)Road density compared to GDP71 Congo, Dem. Rep.33.952 Central African Republic25.563 Chad24.054 Liberia23.765 Guinea-Bissau21.956 Zambia21.367 Burundi20.258 Namibia20.049 Sierra Leone18.5610 Malawi16.5511 Madagascar13.4612 Tanzania10.2113 Guinea9.9914 Ghana8.2115 Mozambique8.2016 Mauritania7.5617 Sao Tome and Principe7.1118 Rwanda7.0219 Lesotho7.0020 Gambia, The6.7721 Mali6.4322 Angola5.8023 Togo5.6124 Niger5.5425 Eritrea5.50(in kms per million USD of GDP)Road condition in 20088Paved networkUnpaved network (with revised criteria)Good334Fair6191Poor65Road condition (in percent of the network)Source: RDA.The challenges: low volumes (1/2)

4 million tonnes (international flows) is equivalent to approximately 150 trucks a day (loaded for imports) (for the whole country)9The challenges: a growing paved network with growing difficulties to maintain it (2/2)Length of the paved networkActual amount over total maintenance needs196413221971321644%1976484839%2004722019%10Red flags in contract management and procurement

Control of Corruption Index and Number of Red Flags Normalized by Number of Reviewed Contracts per CountrySource: Alexeeva et al. (2008). Actual expenditures trends by sectors (in billion of 2009 ZMK)A fast growing sector,An increased share of domestic financing.

12To sum upRelatively dense road network (compared to population and GDP levels)(at the national level),

Overall network in relatively good condition (for the paved network),

Growing network (paved) with growing difficulties to maintain it,

Increased spending in the road sector.

13II Is it wishful/possible to target a full network in good condition in Zambia?14The current size of the network is hardly financially sustainable

South Africa0.6Financial difficulties to maintain the current network length

=> Needs to prioritize15How does work the link between road condition and poverty reduction?16InfrastructureServicesServices usersNeed of high maintenance costs (new fleet),Roads in poor condition.Services competition, High traded volumes.Need of a high share of transport costs in total production costs.12CorridorGateway - DestinationFuelTyresMaintenanceInformalpaymentSouthern AfricaLusaka-Johannesburg51%48%1%0%Lusaka-Dar-es-Salaam60%38%1%1%17Maintenance costs are not the most important factor of vehicle operating costsVehicle costs breakdown (international transport)(2007)Source: Teravanithorn and Raballand (2008)International transport: low transport unit prices

Source: Teravanithorn and Raballand (2008)18

West AfricaCentral AfricaEast Africa50 km project100 km project50 km project100 km project50 km project100 km projectFair to goodMin. traffic