Gaining Perspective on Global Trends 2030

Our Place in the Global Community

Is America still the world’s leader? US leads the world in…• Obesity• Mental Disorders• Small Arms Ownership• # of Gun Deaths• Incarceration #s• Energy Use per Person• Health Expenditures• Student Loan Debt• Teen Pregnancy• Defense Spending

But, US also leads in…• # of Olympic Medals• Beef, corn, and

cheese production• # of Billionaires• Most powerful army• # of roads• # of plastic surgeons• Wine consumption

The US Ranks…• 36th in education• 19th in national satisfaction• 44th in health care efficiency• 66th in religious diversity• 24th in literacy• 23rd in gender equality• 60th in the cost of food• 23rd in wage distribution

The Bottom Line…• Perception does not equal

Reality

• Our perception of ourselves and our country does not always match up with the reality of our situation on the global stage.

And yet…• “I watched the crestfallen faces of people

who had not been able to pass the test and would have to come back and try again. I saw the incredible joy on the faces of others who could hardly believe their good fortune at finally achieving a long-sought and hard-won battle….For most of the people in the room, even with all its challenges, America was still the ‘land of opportunity.’”

• “The idea that people from many backgrounds, religions, and cultures can actually forge a peaceful nation state around the ideals of liberty, equality, and the pursuit of happiness—strengthened rather than weakened by diversity—is still a surprise on the world stage and is not something to be taken for granted. I wished that all Americans born in this country could see their privileged status as someone coming into it for the first time” (Shirley Mullen 6.29.15).

• How have we moved from the ideals of the American dream – and the dream of many in the world – to the place we hold in the world today?

Privilege and Responsibility

• “The easiest temptation, my friends, is to take things for granted – to become blasé about the unique privileges we’ve been born with.”  

• “We could so easily fall into the error of assuming that freedom and free contract, regular elections, uncensored newspapers, jury trials with habeas corpus, equality between men and women… that these things are somehow the natural condition of an advanced society, that every country will get them, when they become educated enough and wealthy enough.  But history tells a very different story” (Dan Hannan, 4.8.14).

• “America must always lead on the world stage. If we don’t, no one else will” (Barack Obama 5.28.14).

The National Intelligence CouncilWho We Are:

The National Intelligence Council supports the Director of National Intelligence in his role as head of the Intelligence Community (IC) and is the IC’s center for long-term strategic analysis. Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of Intelligence Community collaboration and outreach.

The NIC’s National Intelligence Officers — drawn from government, academia, and the private sector—are the Intelligence Community’s senior experts on a range of regional and functional issues.

The National Intelligence Council

What We Do:

Within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the NIC carries out its mission under the direction of the Deputy Director for Intelligence Integration and the Chairman, Vice Chairman, and Counselor, who lead a corps of National Intelligence Officers.

The NIOs serve as the “analytic arm” of the National Intelligence Manager teams and are responsible for producing finished intelligence analysis.

They support the NIMs’ efforts to integrate US intelligence and develop and implement Unifying Intelligence Strategies to address the nation’s most pressing national security concerns.

Global Trends Series

Every four years the NIC publishes an update of its Global Trends series that identifies key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a couple of decades into the future. The most recent Global Trends report, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds was released on December 10, 2012.

Global Trends 2030

• “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds is … aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future….we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities.”

• We distinguish between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain.”

Megatrends• Individual Empowerment

• Diffusion of Power

• Demographic Patterns

• Food, Water, Energy Nexus

Game-Changers• Crisis-Prone Global Economy• Governance Gap• Potential for Increased Conflict• Wider Scope of Regional

Instability• Impact of New Technologies• Role of the United States

• “We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures. It is our contention that the future is not set in stone, but is malleable, the result of an interplay among megatrends, game-changers and, above all, human agency.”

• “Our effort is to encourage decision makers—whether in government or outside—to think and plan for the long term so that negative futures do not occur and positive ones have a better chance of unfolding”.

• “We hope this report stimulates dialogue on the challenges that will confront the global community during the next 15-20 years—and positive and peaceful ways to meet them” (NIC 2012).

• “With great power comes great responsibility” (Voltaire – NOT Spiderman).

Works CitedHayward, John. “Dan Hannan at CPAC 2014: The Responsibilities, and Privileges, of Being American.” Human Events. The Human Events Group, 8 Mar. 2014. Web. 18 Aug. 2015.Mullen, Shirley. “U.S. Citizenship: A Privilege and Responsibility.” The Wesleyan Church. Web. 29 Jun. 2015.Rice, Mark. Ranking America. Word Press, n.d., Web. 15 Aug. 2015.United States. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. DNI, n.d., Web. 18 Aug. 2015.United States. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. National Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. Dec. 2012. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Web. 8 Aug. 2015.United States. The White House. Office of the Press Secretary. “Remarks by the President at the United States Military Academy Commencement Ceremony” by Barack Obama. 28 May, 2014. The White House. Office of the Press Secretary. Web. 18 Aug. 2015.Voltaire. Jean, Adrien. Beuchot, Quentin and Miger, Pierre, Auguste. "Œuvres de Voltaire, Volume 48". Lefèvre, 1832.