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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe ET2050

Danube RegionTransnational Regional Report

Brussels, 19.03.2012.

GÁL, Zoltán (PHD, Dr habil.)galz@rkk.hu

Centre for Economic & Regional Studies,Hungarian Academy of Sciences

University of Kaposvár, Faculty of Economics

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“To seek Europe is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinite - and this is what I call adventure”

Zygmunt Bauman, An adventure called Europe

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The Danube region: Geographical endowments

The Danube Region (countries covered by our research)

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European deadlock and the most fragmented transnational region

• One of the most fragmented, diverse and checkered territory of Europe• Characterised by a dominance of long-term disintegration processes (empires multi-

ethnic states - dissolution of Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia & USSR)• Modern fragmentation has several dimensions:

– 8 EU and 7 non-EU members– 2 Eurozone members– Non-members of Schengen zone (Romania and Bulgaria)– Accession country (Croatia) & EU candidates (Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia)– Non-negotiating countries about EU accession (Moldova, Ukraine, Bosnia-

Herzegovina, Albania)• The differences between sub-regions are larger than between countries.• Historical tensions block connections, and hinder the full integration of the EU member

states. • Ethnically sensitive territorial protection (reactive values)

Modernization slope Changes in the per capita GDP in Hungary and in the

CEE&SEE countries in comparison to the Western European average (12 counrtries =100%), 1870-2010

(International Geary-Khamis dollars, 1990)

41%38%

50%51%

44%

59%

52%

52%

59%

43%39,6%

32% 38%

41%45%

56%

33%

44%

27%

48%

39%

39% 40%

45%

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

Hun/EU-12WE-12CEE/EU-12

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Population and dependent economies

• Demographic trends: still younger but rapidly ageing:– Several economically advanced regions have ageing populations.– Shrinking population influences the expected development course, consumption needs, and even

the use of the environment.– The high number and proportion of the Roma population (a specific feature of the Danube region)

• Migration trends:– Internal: economic decline of factor supply via deskilling via internal, intra-regional (within the

Danube region) and international migration.– External: large masses already appear on the external borders of the region from North Africa, the

Middle East and the former USSR.• Economic trends: despite European catching-up processes, the large economic and

territorial inequalities can not be eliminated in dependent economies due to constant capital scarcities

– The sharp dividing line between German and Austrian, as well as post-socialist space persists– CEE economic differentiation: zones alongside the main corridors in CEE are heavily linked to FDI

and to Western European industrial networks (automotive)– The unambiguous winners of the process are capital regions– More ambiguous mixture of FDI-driven reindustrialisation and the surviving domestic industrial

capacities with rapid deindustrializing– Weak innovation: R&D investment relative to GDP funded by the business sector – except in

Austria and the Czech Republic – was low

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Development level by per capita GDP (PPP, % of EU27 average)

Note: The numerical value in the upper box shows the ranking of the individual region within the sample. The value in the lower box shows the change in the region’s ranking between 2000 and 2008.

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The change of the relative development level of capital cities and capital regions

in the EU 1995–2009

Per capita GDP as a percentage of EU15 average Capital city or region Country 1995 2009 Change

Stockholm SVE 196 192 -4,0 Praha CZ 49 123 +74,0 Madrid ESP 103 128 +25,0 Budapest HU 49 88 +39,0 Bratislava SK 41 121 +80,0 Bucuresti RO 13 41 +28,0 Attiki GR 70 115 +45,0 Lisboa e Vale do Tejo PT 84 95 +11,0 Uusimaa FINN 175 190 +15,0 Közép-Magyarország HU 38 65 +27,0 Mazowieckie PL 24 55 +31,0

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Polarised development and networks (urban, transport & energy network)

• External peripherization: CEE urban network traditionally oriented towards Western European urban system cyclical disintegrations increased peripherization within Europe

• Internal peripherization: A polycentric macroregional urban system constituted by monocentric national urban systems and a fragmented rural network,

– Danube a true axis of urbanisation: high concentration of population & MNCs– Clear divide between capital cities and secondary centers– The Balkans complex fragmentation on a national (ethnical) basis.

• Proximity/distance still matters: delayed network development, capital-centric in comparison with WE, historically influenced redundancies (due to changing national boundaries )

• Political centralism preferred capital city-based monocentric national networks with limited border permeability

• Budapest-centric TENs, development- vis-á-vis environmentally motivated transport development (high share of highway investment ), hollowing-out of peripheries

• EU energy policy influenced by: secure supply, sustainability, market liberalisation diversification, inherent contradictions

– South Stream, Nabucco and “Blue Stream” gas pipelines• Increased energy consumption reliance on nuclear and fossil-based generation• Renewable energy deployment motivated by EU targets

The European transport corridors (Trans European Networks) in the Danube region

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Scenarios for the Danube region

1 The scenario of successful integration• EU will overcome the current difficulties and the expansion will successfully continue• Within approx. 15 years Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo and Albania may

also become the members of the European Union.• If the euro gets over the current difficulties, new countries from the regions are likely to join the euro-

zone within 15 years• The poorest regions of the EU member states receive considerable support from the EU Structural

Funds. (Only three are currently ineligible for funding as convergence regions)• Among the main challenges are to improve the north-south transport connections, increase border

permeability (bridges) and improve the living conditions of Europe’s largest Roma community (8% of the total population)

2 The scenario of Central European cooperation • In this scenario, it is assumed that EU enlargement will progress more slowly than previously assumed. • It does not mean the disintegration of the European Union. Rather, more intra-regional cooperation

(Visegrad countries) takes place, which partly compensates the slowing of EU enlargement.• In this regional collaboration scheme the importance of the Danube will increase for landlocked

countries. • Energy security, the diversification of energy supply should also be achieved through cooperative within

the region.• Cooperation among former Yugoslav member states may gain a new momentum. • Germany, Austria and Italy lead co-operation initiatives

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Scenarios for the Danube region

3. ‘Worst case’ scenario, when the disputes and conflicts between the countries of the Danube region make cooperation and integration impossible

• Debates between the countries themselves make any kind of joint action impossible. Of course, this scenario is extreme in the current form, but draws attention to the recently more or less hidden dangers threatening the Danube region.

– Conflicts with neighbours related to the ethnic minorities– Conflicts arising from realised or even not accomplished projects– Debates over the delimitation of border (former Yugoslavian border zones)– Conflicts of disguised protectionism

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION