gallup world poll insights on would be migrants and remittances gerver torres march 2009
TRANSCRIPT
2
The World Poll
Annually polling 95% of the Earth's adult population
Conducted in more than 150 countries and territories
Largest available independent source
of key world behavioral and economic data.
Same core questions asked across nations and over time, allowing for harmonized international data.
Rigorous measurement methodology Nationally representative data -
includes both urban and rural areas Samples of at least 1,000 adults per
country
3
Examples of Questions on Migration and Remittances
Some direct questions on migration and remittances in the World Poll:
Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?
To which country would you like to move? (Open ended and code) Are you planning to move permanently to that country in the next 12
months? Have any members of your household, aged 15 to 60, gone to live in a
foreign country permanently or temporarily in the past five years? For the person who went most recently, what was the highest level of
his/her education? In which country does/did he/she live?
4
Do you have relatives or friends who are living in another country whom you can count on to help you when you need them, or not?
In which country, or countries, do they live? Approximately, how much money in [local currency] does this
household receive from relatives living abroad per month? If for some reason your household stopped receiving these
remittances, what would it prevent you or your family from doing? Do you personally know of someone who is planning to move out of
[country] in the next 12 months, or not? Do you personally know of someone who was living outside of [country]
and returned in the past 12 months, or not?
Examples of Questions on Migration and Remittances
5
How many members of this household work temporarily in another country?
In what country/countries are your family members or relatives temporarily working? Please consider both your household members and relatives not living with you.
Are any of your family members or relatives currently studying or are in a work study program abroad (including countries of the former Soviet Union), or not?
In what country/countries are your family members or relatives temporarily working? Please consider both your household members and relatives not living with you.
Were you born in this country, [country], or not?
Examples of Questions on Migration and Remittances
Not always easy to ask those questions…
6
“Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?”
Cuba
8
Wanting to migrate…planning to migrate
AFRICA 35.20% 6.70%THE AMERICAS 28.50% 3.30%ASIA 16.40% 1.90%EUROPE 18.10% 0.70%Total 21.70% 3.20%
Wish Plan
Percent wishing and planning to migrate in four world regions, countries weighted equally
9
Wanting to migrate…planning to migrate
Percent wishing and planning to migrate in four world regions, countries weighted by population of adults aged 15 or older
AFRICA 33.41% 6.39%THE AMERICAS 17.80% 1.77%ASIA 9.02% 0.66%EUROPE 18.03% 0.84%World total 13.61% 1.40%
Want to migrate Plan to migrate
10
AFRICA 136.2 26.0THE AMERICAS 113.7 11.3ASIA 247.6 18.1EUROPE 76.9 3.6 World Total 574.6 Million 59.1 Million
Values in millions of people
Wanting to migrate…planning to migrate
Want to migrate Plan to migrate
11
Wanting to migrate by country
Sierra Leone 64.50%Guyana 59.60%
Congo (Kinshasa) 58.80%Ghana 58.30%Nigeria 58.20%Liberia 57.90%Zimbabwe 56.80%Dominican Republic 56.50%Senegal 55.50%Uganda 51.00%Malawi 50.90%Haiti 50.80%El Salvador 49.20%Cameroon 49.10%Ethiopia 46.10%
Tajikistan 10.70%Laos 10.50%Finland 10.40%Austria 9.20%South Africa 8.20%Spain 7.90%India 7.70%Uzbekistan 7.70%Australia 7.60%Malaysia 7.30%Pakistan 6.80%Indonesia 6.00%China 5.90%Thailand 5.90%Saudi Arabia 3.10%
Top 15 Bottom 15
12
Planning to migrate by country
Congo Brazzaville 28.00%Djibouti 22.20%Senegal 20.80%Haiti 14.80%Zimbabwe 13.30%
Algeria 13.10%Sierra Leone 12.60%Afghanistan 11.80%Liberia 10.60%Mali 9.10%Nigeria 8.80%Palestine 8.40%Honduras 8.00%Lebanon 7.20%Tanzania 7.20%
Austria 0.50%United States 0.40%Turkey 0.40%Netherlands 0.40%Sweden 0.40%Singapore 0.40%India 0.40%Uganda 0.40%Indonesia 0.30%China 0.30%Russia 0.30%Ireland 0.30%Denmark 0.20%Malaysia 0.20%Japan 0.10%
Top 15 Bottom 15
Country Level Analysis of Migration Data
How do our World Poll migration data relate to net migration rates?
It’s a tricky process to convert our survey data to net migration data (e.g., Is our sample size sufficient?, Can we reliably generate the 150 country x 150 country matrix needed to calculate this?) We’re working on this. But we do know this:
The correlation between net migration rates between 2002 and 2006 and the percentage of people in a given country who receive remittances in 2008 is r = -.38 worldwide (and much higher everywhere except in Africa).
This may not sound very high but migration is less stable over time than people assume. The correlation between 2002-2006 net migration and 2008 net migration is only r = .56.
17
18
Best predictors for wanting and planning to migrate
1. Having a plan to start your own business .2. Living in a low GDP country.3. Being single.4. Perceiving that hard work doesn’t pay off in your own society.5. Living in an urban area (city or suburb).6. Having a high household income (relative to others in your country)7. Being young.8. Being distressed (index of pain, worry, sadness and stress)9. Being dissatisfied with your standard of living10.Being male. 11.Being religious12.Being unemployed
19
Putting It All Together: Total Number of Migration Factors
Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?
Percentage Wanting toMigrate
The more of the ten migration factors people endorse, the more likely they are to want to Migrate.
Quintile 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
20
Putting It All Together: Total Number of Migration Factors
Are you planning to move permanently to another country in the next 12 months?
Percentage Planning toMigrate
The more of the ten emigration factors people endorse, the more likely they are to plan to Migrate.
Quintile 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
21
Another Important Predictor of Plans to Migrate: Receipt of Remittances
Ideally, if you could afford it, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?
Percentage Wanting toMigrate
Beginning with those who endorse five or more of the ten migration factors (the top quintile worldwide) those who receive remittances from someone abroad are still more likely to want to Migrate.
22
Another Important Predictor of Plans to Migrate:Receipt of Remittances
Ideally, if you could afford it, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?
Percentage Planning toMigrate
Beginning with those who endorse five or more of the ten migration factors (the top quintile worldwide) those who receive remittances from someone abroad are twice as likely to plan to migrate.
23
The message behind remittances
What is the message that comes with remittances?
• The situation there is better than here
• If he or she can do it why can’t I?
•There is some one there I can count on
28
Having a plan to start your own business
Are you planning to start your own business in the next 12 months?
Percentage Planning toMigrate
29
Having a plan to start your own business for those who do NOT believe that working hard in their home country pays off:
Are you planning to start your own business in the next 12 months?
Percentage Planning toMigrate
30
Who are those who want to migrate?
The concept of well being in the World Poll:
“Please imagine a ladder with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom to 10 at the top. Suppose we say that the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you. On which step of the ladder do you feel you personally stand at the present time?”
31
Who are those who want to migrate?
10
0
7
5
4
6
Thriving
Struggling
Suffering
The concept of well being in the World Poll:
32
Who are those who want to migrate?
GDP groupIncome in Local Currency Well being Mean
bottom quartile Poorest 20% suffering 0.293struggling 0.186thriving 0.238
Richest 20% suffering 0.344struggling 0.274thriving 0.304
top quartile Poorest 20% suffering 0.199struggling 0.091thriving 0.114
Richest 20% suffering 0.289struggling 0.221thriving 0.142
33
Who are those who are planning to migrate?
GDP groupIncome in Local Currency wellbeing Mean
bottom quartile Poorest 20% suffering 0.06struggling 0.04thriving 0.05
Richest 20% suffering 0.12struggling 0.07thriving 0.08
top quartile Poorest 20% suffering 0.008struggling 0.006thriving 0.007
Richest 20% suffering 0.031struggling 0.019thriving 0.008
For Latin Americans Migration is a “Win, Win” Deal
35
When you think of the people who go to live in other countries, do you consider them to be a big problem or a big help for….
(% that think of migrants as problem/ help)
For the sending country For their families For the receiving countries
Reasons to migrate
To escape from poverty 37.8To make money and help loved ones back home 29.1To achieve higher personal or professional growth 16.8To give a better education to their kids 5.3To be able to afford house 3.9To escape from crime 2.9To escape from political conflict 1.3
36
In your opinion, which or the following is the single most important reasonwhy people migrate from this country?
Where they plan to go to
United States 35.3Spain 21.5Canada 4.5Argentina 4Brazil 3.3Italy 3.2Mexico 2.6France 2.4United Kingdom 1.8
37
%
Expectations on remittances
Stayed the same 47.5Increase 19.3Decrease 18
38
%
In the next twelve months, do you expect the amount of remittances this household receives, to increase, decrease or stay the same?
Surprised by current Financial turbulence
What do you do with remittances?
Covering basic needs 53.9Saving 14.1Other (Specify) 7.5Educating kids 6.2Building a house 3Starting a business 3Buying a car/other durable goods 2.3
39
If for some reason your household stopped receiving these remittances, what would it prevent you or your family from doing?
Using a loan with remittances as collateral
Yes 34.2No 59.6(DK) 5.5(Refused) 0.7
40
If you were offered a loan for an amount equivalent to six months worth of remittances, and the monthly payments on it were reasonable enough for you to afford, would you take this loan or not?
42
Percentage of Those Who (1) Have Relatives Living Abroad &(2) Also Receive Remittances in 12 Latin American Countries
0 20 40 60 80 100
Mexico
Haiti
Colombia
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Peru
Guatemala
Ecuador
Paraguay
Honduras
El Salvador
Brazil
0 20 40 60 80 100
Mexico
Haiti
Colombia
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Peru
Guatemala
Ecuador
Paraguay
Honduras
El Salvador
Brazil Relatives Abroad
Get Remittances
43
0 20 40 60 80 100
Mexico
Haiti
Colombia
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Peru
Guatemala
Ecuador
Paraguay
Honduras
El Salvador
Brazil
0 20 40 60 80 100
Mexico
Haiti
Colombia
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Peru
Guatemala
Ecuador
Paraguay
Honduras
El Salvador
Brazil
0 20 40 60 80 100
Mexico
Haiti
Colombia
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Peru
Guatemala
Ecuador
Paraguay
Honduras
El Salvador
Brazil
Percentage of Those Who (1) Have Relatives Living Abroad, (2) Receive Remittances & (3) Also Desire to be EntrepreneursIn 12 Latin American Countries
Relatives Abroad
Get Remittances
Entrepreneurs
44
0 20 40 60 80 100
Mexico
Haiti
Colombia
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Peru
Guatemala
Ecuador
Paraguay
Honduras
El Salvador
Brazil
0 20 40 60 80 100
Mexico
Haiti
Colombia
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Peru
Guatemala
Ecuador
Paraguay
Honduras
El Salvador
Brazil
0 20 40 60 80 100
Mexico
Haiti
Colombia
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Peru
Guatemala
Ecuador
Paraguay
Honduras
El Salvador
Brazil
Percentage of Those Who (1) Have Relatives Living Abroad, (2) Receive Remittances, (3) Desire to be Entrepreneurs, and (4) Feel Loans Are Hard to Get in 12 Latin American Countries
Relatives Abroad
Get Remittances
Entrepreneurs
0 20 40 60 80 100
Mexico
Haiti
Colombia
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Peru
Guatemala
Ecuador
Paraguay
Honduras
El Salvador
Brazil
Feel Loans are Hard to Get