gambia monthly economic abstract may 2009

8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract May 2009

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The Gambia - Monthly Economic Abstract- May 2009

THE GAMBIA MONTHLY

ECONOMIC ABSTRACT1

May 2009

Institutional Support Project for Economic and Financial Governance (ISPEFG)Department of State for Finance and Economic Affairs (DOSFEA)

The Republic of Gambia

The Quadrangle, Banjul, the Gambia

1The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstractis an abridged version ofthe Gambia Monthly/ QuarterlyEconomic Bulletin published every month. Itprovides a brief account of the current state of the Gambianeconomy. The Abstract has been prepared jointly by Dr. Tamsir Cham, Director; Economic Management

and Planning Unit (EMPU) and Dr. Tarun Das, Macroeconomic Adviser (ISPEFG), Ministry of Finance

and Economic Affairs (MOFEA) under the overall direction of the Permanent Secretary, MOFEA.

Any questions and feedback can be addressed to: Either Tamsir Cham ([email protected])or Tarun Das ([email protected])

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mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Political and Administrative Structure

The Gambia is divided into seven regions comprising two Municipalities namely, Banjul City

Council (BCC) and the Kanifing Municipal Council (KMC) and five provincial administrative

regions namely, Western Region (WR), North Bank Region (NBR), Lower River Region (LRR),

Central River Region (CRR) and Upper River Region (URR).

Politically, the relevant units are Local Government Areas (urban), Districts, Wards and Villages.

The Gambia has 35 districts and about 1870 villages with an average of 13 compounds.Basic Facts about Gambia:

Fiscal year: 1st January to 31st December

Items (Year) Units Value Rank in the Worldfrom top

in descending orderArea (2009) Sq. km. 11,300 171 out of 248

countries

Population (2008) Million 1.735 148 out of 241countries

GDP PPP (2004) Million US$ 3284 167 out of 224countries

GDP Nominal (2006) Million US$ 511 199 out of 229countries

GDP PPP per capita (2004) US$ 1945 177 out of 223countries

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HIGHLIGHTS

Inflation and Oil Prices

Annual point-to-point CPI inflation accelerated from 1.4% (Food 1.7% and non-food 1%) in April2008 to 6.3% (Food 7.7% and non-food 4.5%) in April 2009. The 12-month average inflation rateaccelerated marginally to 5.5% in April 2009 from 5.4% a year ago.

Given global economic slowdown, international crude oil prices were projected to remain soft and

rule around $51 per barrel in 2009. However, since April 2009 petroleum prices started rising andincreased to US$60 per barrel in May 2009.

Government Financial Performance

Government Financial Performance was significantly better in Jan-April 2009 than in Jan-April

2008. In Jan-April 2009 revenue and grants increased by 15.5% aided by 16.7% increase intaxes, 4.7% increase in non-taxes and 16.9% increase in grants over Jan-April 2008.

Overall, there is a fiscal surplus of D35 million in Jan-April 2009, lower than the fiscal surplus of

D75 million in Jan-April 2008, due to significant increase of capital expenditure by 88% in Jan-April 2009 over Jan-April 2008.

Domestic Debt and Treasury Bills Yields

At the end of April 2009, outstanding domestic debt stood at D5.7 billion (28.4% of GDP), downby 5.9% from D6 billion (33.5% of GDP) a year ago. Treasury bills accounted for 84.4% of totaldomestic debt at the end of April 2009, compared to 80.3% a year ago.

Despite significant decline of CPI inflation in the recent months, average yield on the 91-day TBs

increased from 10.5% in Jan 2009 to 12% in April 2009, yield of 182-day TBs increased from12.1% to 13% and that of 364-day bills increased from 14.4% to 14.6% over the period.

Money Supply and Bank Credits

Annual growth rate of broad money supply (M3) accelerated significantly from 3.7% in April 2008

to 18.8% in April 2009, supported by 17.8% growth in currency, 19.6% growth in demanddeposits, 11.6% growth in savings deposits and 29.1% growth in time deposits. On the demandside, growth was mainly due to 31.9% growth in domestic credits.

Domestic credit increased from D5.1 billion in April 2008 to D6.7 billion in April 2009, supportedby 46% growth in government borrowing, 103.3% growth in credits to public entities and 24.1%growth in credits to the private sector.

Gambian banks were least affected by global financial crisis as the Gambian banks do not have

large exposure to foreign assets or liabilities. At end-April 2009, foreign assets constituted only8.9% of total assets and external liabilities constituted only 1.8% of total liabilities.

Exchange Rate

In 2008, the Dalasi depreciated against major international currencies except the British Pound.

Since Jan 2009, Dalasi has appreciated against major international currencies.

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At a Glance- May 2009

Economic Indicators LatestReference

Period

Status in thelatest reference

period in 2009

Status in theCorresponding

period in 2008

Outlook for 2009

CPI inflation rate (%) April 2009 Overall6.7Food8.2Non-food4.8

Overall 3.1Food 4.5Non-food 1.2

Expected to declineduring the year

Brent crude oil price(US$/ brl)

May 2009 Average US$60 Average US$123 May stabilize around $55by the end of 2009

Growth rate (%) ofRevenue & grants

Jan-Apr 2009 16.2 -2.2

Growth rate (%) of Exp& Net Lending

Jan-Apr 2009 19.6 0.7

Fiscal performance in2009 will be better thanlast year.

Rev. and grants as % of

nominal GDP

Jan-Apr 2009 7.7 7.4

Exp & Net Lending as %of GDP

Jan-Apr 2009 7.5 7.0

Overall fiscal bal. as %of GDP

Jan-Apr 2009 0.2 0.4

Basic Balance as % ofnominal GDP

Jan-Apr 2009 1.2 0.9

Primary Bas. Bal, as %of GDP

Jan-Apr 2009 2.6 2.5

As % of GDP at current

market prices, revenues,expenditures and basicbalance are on-track.

Outstanding DomesticDebt (Million D)

April 2009 5659 6013

Domestic debt as %of GDP

April 2009 28.4% 33.5%

Likely to decline in 2009.

Yield of 91-day TBs

(%)

April 2009 12.0 10.9

Yield of 182-day TBs(%)

April 2009 13.0 11.9

Yield of 364-day TBs(%)

April 2009 14.6 13.3

Yields may come down

as CPI inflation hasstarted decelerating.

CBG Rediscount rate(%)

May 2009 16 15

GR of Money supply(M3) (%)

April 2009 18.8 3.7

Growth rate ofReserve Money (%)

April 2009 11.1 -6.0

Broad money growthrate is likely todecelerate.

Banks foreign assetsas % of total assets

April 2009 8.9 10.9

Banks foreign liabil.as % of total liabilities

April 2009 1.8 3.6

Likely to remain stable

Dalasi/ US$ April 2009 26.56 20.12

Dalasi/ UK April 2009 38.94 39.52Dalasi/ Euro April 2009 35.07 31.43Dalasi/ CHF April 2009 22.80 19.16Dalasi/ CFA (5000) April 2009 259.13 235.95

Dalasi is likely todepreciate against majorcurrencies during theyear 2009.

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1. Consumer Price Index and Inflation

As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual point-to-point CPI inflationaccelerated from 1.4% April 2008 to 6.3% in April 2009. The 12-month average inflationrate accelerated marginally to 5.5% in April 2009 from 5.4% a year ago.

Food and drinks (with weights of 55.2% in overall CPI) recorded average inflation of7.7% in April 2009, up from 1.7% a year ago, and contributed 70.8% to overall inflation inApril 2009.

Non-food items (with weights of 44.8% in overall CPI) recorded annual inflation of 4.5%in April 2009 compared to 1% a year ago and contributed 29.2% to inflation.

Among other groups, in April 2009, clothing and textiles recorded annual inflation of4.6%, housing and utilities 5.4%, restaurants and hotels 6.8% and transport 4.2%.

Table-1 CPI Inflation Rates in April 2009 (in percentage)

Items WeightsWi (%)

April-2008Index

Apriil-2009Index

Inflation(%)

Wi (CPIi1CPIi0)

Contribution2 (%)

Overall 100.0 113.21 120.36 6.3 700.9 100.0Food 55.2 116.61 125.6 7.7 496.3 70.8Tobacco 0.7 104.19 105.78 1.5 1.1 0.2Clothing 11.3 106.19 111.08 4.6 55.1 7.9Utilities 3.4 115.38 121.64 5.4 21.3 3.0Furnishing 5.2 111.50 114.97 3.1 18.2 2.6Health 1.0 101.00 101.77 0.8 0.8 0.1Transport 4.4 115.14 119.95 4.2 21.2 3.0

Telecom 3.0 101.54 101.98 0.4 1.3 0.2Recreation 8.0 103.94 104.67 0.7 5.8 0.8

Education 1.5 101.87 102.25 0.4 0.6 0.1Hotels 0.4 108.86 116.24 6.8 2.7 0.4Misc. 5.9 112.46 125.37 11.5 76.5 10.9non-food 44.8 109.08 114.03 4.5 221.7 29.2

Source of basic data: Gambian Bureau of Statistics (GBOS).

2Contribution of an item to overall inflation is estimated by the following formula:

Contribution of Item (i) = W i (CPIi1 CPIi0) / Wi (CPIi1 CPIi0) expressed as a percentage.where CPIi1 = Consumer Price Index for Item (i) in the current period

CPIi0 = Consumer Price Index for Item (i) in the previous period

Wi = Weights for Item (i) and

W = Total weights = Wi

For example, contribution of food is estimated as 100 X 525.0 / 746.7 = 70.3%.

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Sub-group wise inflation in April 2009 (%)

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0

Overall

Tobacco

Utilities

Health

Telecom

Education

Misc.

Series1

Contribution to Inflation in April 2009 (%)

Food

70%

Clothing

8%

Utilities3%

Furnishing

3%

Transport

3%

Others

13%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

07-J a

Mar May Jul Sp Nv 08-J a

Mar May Jul Sp Nv 09-J a

Mar

All

Food

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2. World Commodity Prices and Inflation

As a result of the sharp downturn in global demand, commodity prices, especially for energy,declined significantly since the last quarter of 2008. Inflationary pressures had subsided in themajor advanced economies. There are also significant declines of housing prices in someadvanced countries, showing signs of deflation.

Inflation will continue to retreat due to the combination of lower commodity prices and increasingeconomic slackness, with deflation risks growing in advanced economies. IMF forecastsindicate that G-7 deflation vulnerability has risen above its previous peak, reflecting high risks inJapan and the United States and moderate risks in several euro area members includingGermany, Italy and France.

Inflationary pressures also subsided in the low and income economies. Although commodityprices recorded some increase in January 2009, they declined again since Feb 2009 (Table-2).

2.1 Trends of International Crude Oil Prices

During 2008 Brent crude oil prices ruled very high until July 2008 when prices increased to $147per barrel. However, due to global financial crisis and economic slowdown oil prices starteddeclining thereafter.

A recent report from the Paris based International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that theworld oil demand in 2009 will decline by half a million barrels per day (bpd). In their last meeting,the OPEC has decided not to have any cut in oil supply. Accordingly, oil prices are expected toremain soft in the rest of the year 2009.

In March-April 2009 Brent crude oil prices ranged around US$47 per barrel. Given weakness in theChinese demand and negative growth in the US and EU and OPECs decision to have no supply cuts,global crude oil prices were projected to remain soft and rule around $51 per barrel in 2009. However,

since April 2009 petroleum prices started rising and increased to US$60 per barrel in May 2009.

Trends of Monthly Brent Crude Oil Prices (US$/ barrel)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-9

Jul-99

Jan-0

Jul-0

Jan-01

Jul-01

Jan-0

Jul-0

Jan-0

Jul-0

Jan-0

Jul-0

Jan-0

Jul-0

Jan-0

Jul-0

Jan-0

Jul-0

Jan-0

Jul-0

Jan-0

Months and Years 1999-2009

US$perBa

Series1

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Table-2 Trends of World Commodity Prices

Quarterly averages Monthly averages

Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Feb Mar Apr

Commodity Unit 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009

Energy

Coal, Australia $/mt 114.00 138.65 162.80 92.97 71.93 75.38 61.00 63.56

Crude oil, Brent $/bbl 96.67 122.39 115.60 55.89 44.98 43.24 46.84 50.85Crude oil, Dubai $/bbl 91.30 116.67 113.47 53.67 44.56 43.14 45.58 50.18Natural gas Index 2000=1

00235.3 286.0 284.1 266.2 198.3 187.4 177.7 144.7

Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu

10.86 12.40 14.62 15.75 11.94 11.04 10.90 8.51

Agriculture

Coffee, Arabica /kg 328.5 315.1 321.2 267.8 283.9 285.5 283.3 297.4Tea, Mombasa auctions /kg 221.8 221.6 252.8 190.8 214.9 211.8 213.8 222.5Coconut oil $/mt 1,379 1,499 1,246 772 677 673 625 747Groundnut oil $/mt 2,007 2,328 2,417 1,773 1,283 1,293 1,214 1,188Soybean oil $/mt 1,384 1,466 1,353 830 755 748 727 800Barley $/mt 216.8 239.1 216.6 129.5 116.3 112.5 114.8 110.9Maize $/mt 220.4 259.0 244.7 168.4 166.9 163.4 164.6 168.5Rice, Thailand, 25% $/mt 182.2 n.a. 669.5 449.9 469.4 472.8 471.5 446.0Wheat, US, HRW $/mt 411.8 346.5 317.7 228.1 231.6 224.7 230.9 233.6

Wheat US SRW $/mt 384.1 277.8 241.5 182.7 187.4 183.4 183.7 182.6Fishmeal $/mt 1,126 1,185 1,198 1,023 1,013 1,001 1,030 1,038Meat, beef /kg 282.1 332.7 372.4 268.0 245.2 236.2 247.7 255.5Meat, chicken /kg 158.8 167.9 177.1 174.7 173.5 173.8 171.9 171.1Meat, sheep /kg 453.6 493.2 477.3 410.0 378.5 380.3 374.6 396.1Shrimp, Mexico /kg 1,103 1,109 1,048 1,014 976 970 970 970Sugar, world /kg 28.42 27.01 31.14 26.28 28.85 29.26 29.54 30.09Raw Materials

Logs, Cameroon $/cum 530.8 554.4 548.5 473.8 426.8 421.9 388.2 382.5Plywood /sheets 640.4 647.3 648.6 645.5 572.8 573.0 570.8 567.7Sawnwood, Cameroon $/cum 1,035.5 1,052.3 974.5 770.8 689.2 690.2 679.9 684.3Cotton Memphis /kg 174.2 171.6 170.0 130.1 129.8 131.4 123.3 135.6Rubber RSS1, US /kg 292.6 311.7 329.1 202.8 165.8 165.8 161.8 183.6Fertilizers

DAP $/mt 860.2 1,191.6 1,153.7 663.3 362.2 367.9 367.6 335.4Phosphate rock $/mt 234.4 367.5 409.2 371.3 193.3 157.5 157.5 125.5Potassium chloride $/mt 367.7 511.1 635.0 766.7 865.2 872.5 870.0 745.0Urea $/mt 357.6 575.7 745.4 292.2 267.3 273.3 265.4 245.2Metals and Minerals

Aluminum $/mt 2,743 2,940 2,787 1,821 1,360 1,330 1,336 1,421Copper $/mt 7,796 8,443 7,680 3,905 3,428 3,315 3,750 4,407Gold $/toz 927 896 870 795 909 943 924 890Steel cr coilsheet $/mt 763 900 1,100 1,100 1,033 1,100 900 700Steel hr coilsheet $/mt 700 833 1,000 1,000 933 1,000 800 600Steel, rebar $/mt 639 838 934 630 473 485 470 425Steel wire rod $/mt 754 950 1,135 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,100Tin /kg 1,778 2,265 2,051 1,310 1,103 1,104 1,068 1,174Zinc /kg 243.0 211.3 177.0 118.5 117.2 111.2 121.7 137.9

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet May 2009

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Columns (2) and (3) ofTable-3.2 present the major item-wise performance of revenues andexpenditure in Jan-Apr 2009 and Jan-Apr 2008 respectively as percentages of thecorresponding budget estimates for the full year. It is evidenced from the table that aspercentages of the respective budget estimates, government revenue collections andexpenditures have performed better in Jan-Apr 2009 than those in Jan-Apr 2008.

Columns (7) and (8) ofTable-3.2 present the major item-wise performance of revenues andexpenditure in Jan-Apr 2009 and Jan-Apr 2008 respectively, as percentages of thecorresponding nominal GDP (IMF Program estimate) for the full year. It is observed from thetable that, in terms of the percentages of GDP, the total reveues and expenditures have alsoperformed better in Jan-Apr 2009 than those in Jan-Apr 2008.

The revenue and expenditure ratios to GDP are also observed to be on track in Jan-Apr2009 as compared with the 2009 budget estimates (given in column-5).

Table-3.2 Govt Financial Performance in Jan-Apr 2009 compared with Jan-Apr 2008

Items

2009Jan-Apr

as % ofBudget

2008Jan-Apr

as % ofBudget

2008Jan-Apr

as % ofactual

2009 BEFull Year

as % ofGDP

2008 ACFull Year

as % ofGDP

2009Jan-Apr

as % ofGDP

2008Jan-Apr

as % ofGDP

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Revenue and grants 33.5 29.6 36.3 23.0 20.3 7.7 7.4

Domestic Revenue 38.4 33.3 36.1 18.9 19.4 7.3 7.0

Tax Revenue 39.2 33.9 36.0 17.0 17.6 6.7 6.4

Nontax Revenue 32.1 28.6 36.7 1.9 1.8 0.6 0.7

Grants 10.8 9.5 40.5 4.1 0.9 0.4 0.4

Exp & Net Lending 27.8 24.9 30.2 26.9 23.0 7.5 7.0

Current Expenditure 26.8 36.5 32.6 19.3 16.8 5.2 5.5

Personnel Emoluments 34.4 33.0 33.4 5.2 5.0 1.8 1.7

Other Charges 20.1 34.1 27.9 9.8 7.8 2.0 2.2

Interest 33.3 46.3 40.6 4.2 3.9 1.4 1.6External 35.7 90.4 42.6 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.4

Domestic 32.7 40.5 40.1 3.5 3.1 1.1 1.2

ap Exp & Net Lending 30.4 11.5 23.9 7.7 6.3 2.3 1.5

Capital Expenditure 30.7 10.8 23.6 7.4 5.7 2.3 1.3

Net Lending 21.4 25.6 26.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.2

Overall BalInc.grants3

-5.6 -13.8 -15.2 -3.9 -2.7 0.2 0.4

Basic balance4 -86.0 60.7 -101.2 -1.3 -0.9 1.2 0.9

Basic Prim. Balance5 88.6 50.5 80.5 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.5

Source: Economic Planning and Management Unit (EMPU), DODFEA.

3 (1) Overall balance= (Revenue and grants) minus (expenditure and net lending).4 (2) Basic balance= Domestic revenue minus (expenditure and net lending)plus externallyfinanced capital expenditure;5 (3) Basic primary balance= Basic balanceplus interest payments

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4. Domestic Debt and Treasury Bills Outstanding

At the end of April 2009, outstanding domestic debt stood at D5.7 billion (amounting to28.4% of GDP), down by 5.9% from the outstanding domestic debt at D6 billion(amounting to 33.5% of GDP) a year ago.

The share of Treasury bills increased from 80.3% at the end of April 2008 to 84.4% at theend of April 2009, share of Sukuk Al-Salam from 1.1% to 1.5% and that of Governmentbonds increased from 4.2% to 4.4% over the period.

On contrary, the share of Non-interest bearing Treasury Notes declined from 14.5% to9.7% over the period

Table-4.1: Outstanding Domestic Public Debt as on 30 April 2009Type of debt Million Dalasi

30-Apr-08 30-Apr-09

% change inApril 09

over April 2008

Composition (inpercentage)

30-Apr-08 30-Apr-09

Treasury bills 4826 4776 -1.0 80.3 84.4

Sukuk Al-Salam 64 86 34.6 1.1 1.5

Government Bonds 250 250 0.0 4.2 4.4

NIB Treasury Notes 873 547 -37.4 14.5 9.7

Total 6013 5659 -5.9 100 100

Memo Item: Domestic debt as % of nominal GDP (As per IMF Program, nominal GDP equalsD17959 for 2008 and D19904 for 2009)

As % of nominalGDP

33.5 28.4

Domestic Debt Sustainability

As per the analysis made by the CBG, the Gambias domestic debt is unsustainable. Out ofthree sustainability indicators given in Table-2.8.2, only one indicator viz. debt to revenue ratio issatisfied. However, debt to GDP ratio may be satisfied during 2009.

Table-4.2 Primary Benchmarks for Domestic Debt Sustainability Ratios (%)

Item Threshold 2006 2007 2008 2009Projected

1. Debt service torevenue ratio

28-63 142 124 118 91

2. Debt to GDP ratio 20-25 33 30 27 31

3. Debt to revenueratio

92-167 180 158 166 147

Note: (1) Debt service the sum of interest payments plus the amortization (i.e. repayment of principal)including the rollover of treasury Bills. (2) There are no internationally agreed levels of thresholds. Thethresholds used here are those used by the Debt Relief International (DRI) for many HIPC countries.

Source: The Central Bank of Gambia (CBG)

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5. Treasury Bills Yields

Yields on treasury bills fluctuated widely in recent months. Despite significant decline ofCPI inflation from 7% in January 2009 to 6.3% in April 2009, Average yield on the 91-dayincreased from 10.5% in Jan 2009 to 12% in April 2009, yield of 182-day bills increasedfrom 12.1% to 13% and that of 364-day bills increased from 14.4% to 14.6% over the

period.

This implies that the margins of yields over inflation rates are increasing over time andneed to be corrected by adopting appropriate monetary policies.

Table-5 Interest Rates (yields on treasury bills in percentage per annum)

2007 2008 20093-M 6-M 12-M 3-M 6-M 12-M 3-M 6-M 12-M

Jan 10.5 12.7 13.6 10.6 11.4 13.6 10.5 12.1 14.4Feb 12.0 13.4 13.8 10.9 11.9 13.7 11.1 12.8 14.4Mar 12.6 13.4 13.7 11.0 12.1 13.6 11.4 12.7 14.4Apr 13.0 13.4 13.8 10.9 11.9 13.3 12.0 13.0 14.6

May 12.8 13.3 13.8 10.2 11.3 13.0Jun 12.6 13.1 13.9 10.0 11.2 13.3Jul 12.5 13.2 13.9 9.6 10.6 12.6Aug 12.6 12.9 13.6 8.8 10.2 12.1Sep 11.6 12.2 12.9 8.9 11.0 13.1Oct 10.6 11.7 12.5 10.3 11.4 13.6Nov 10.5 11.5 12.5 10.1 13.4 13.7Dec 10.4 11.6 13.6 9.9 12.5 14.0

Trends of Yields of Treasury Bills during 2007-2009

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6. Money Supply in April 2009

Annual growth rate of broad money supply (M3) accelerated from 3.7% in April 2008 to18.8% in April 2009.

On the supply side, 18.8% growth in money supply in April 2009 was supported by17.8% growth in currency, 19.6% growth in demand deposits, 11.6% growth in savingsdeposits and 29.1% growth in time deposits.

On the demand side, growth was mainly due to 31.9% growth in domestic credits, whilenet foreign assets increased by only 1.6% over a year ago.

Domestic credit increased from D5.1 billion in April 2008 to D6.7 billion in April 2009,supported by 46% growth in government borrowing, 103.3% growth in credits to publicentities and 24.1% growth in credits to the private sector, over a year ago.

Table-6 Money Supply in April 2009

Components Apr 2007Mill.D.

Apr 2008Mill.D.

Apr 2009Mill.D.

Apr 2008% Share

Apr 2009% Share

Apr 2008% changeover Ap07

Apr 2009% changeover Ap08

1.Broad Money Supply (M3)(2+3)

8008.72 8306.73 9869.66 100.0 100.0 3.7 18.8

2.Narrow Money (2.1+2.2) 4258.97 4041.47 4805.75 48.7 48.7 -5.1 18.9

2.1 Currency 1822.92 1534.52 1807.69 18.5 18.3 -15.8 17.8

2.2 Demand deposits (a+b) 2436.05 2506.95 2998.06 30.2 30.4 2.9 19.6

(a) Private sector 2249.21 2248.46 2616.33 27.1 26.5 0.0 16.4

(b) Official 186.84 258.49 381.74 3.1 3.9 38.3 47.7

3.Quasi money (3.1+3.2) 3749.75 4265.26 5063.91 51.3 51.3 13.7 18.7

3.1 Savings deposits (a+b) 2636.74 2529.54 2822.76 30.5 28.6 -4.1 11.6

(a) Private sector 2633.12 2514.65 2790.85 30.3 28.3 -4.5 11.0(b) Official 3.62 14.89 31.91 0.2 0.3 311.3 114.3

3.2 Time deposits (a+b) 1113.01 1735.72 2241.15 20.9 22.7 55.9 29.1

(a) Private sector 826.53 1272.75 1657.06 15.3 16.8 54.0 30.2

(b) Official 286.48 462.97 584.094 5.6 5.9 61.6 26.2

Demands for money (1+2) 8008.72 8306.73 9869.66 100.0 100.0 3.7 18.8

1.Net foreign assets (1.1+1.2) 4860.16 3327.63 3379.89 40.1 34.2 -31.5 1.6

1.1 Monetary Authorities 2557.55 2616.82 2590.39 31.5 26.2 2.3 -1.0

1.2 Commercial banks 2302.61 710.81 789.5 8.6 8.0 -69.1 11.1

2.Net Domestic Assets(2.1+2.2)

3148.56 4979.1 6489.77 59.9 65.8 58.1 30.3

2.1 Domestic credit 4032.49 5053.83 6665.28 60.8 67.5 25.3 31.9

(a) Credits to government 1435.24 1843.84 2692.67 22.2 27.3 28.5 46.0

(b) Credits to public entities 240.04 272.56 554.18 3.3 5.6 13.5 103.3

(c) Credits to private sector 2173.92 2754.14 3418.43 33.2 34.6 26.7 24.1

(d) Credits to forex bureau 183.29 183.29 0 2.2 0.0 0.0 -100.0

2.2 Other items, net -883.93 -74.73 -175.51 -0.9 -1.8 -91.5 134.9

Source: Economic Research and Statistics Department of CBG.

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7. Sectoral Distribution of Bank Credits

Bank credits increased by 40.2% in March 2009 over March 2008. There was significantincrease across all sectors. While credits to agriculture increased by 66.2%, manufacturingcredits increased by 76.9%, building credits by 39.3%, transport credits by 27.4% anddistributive trade credits by 27.5% in March 2009 over March 2008. Credits to financial

institutions and other commercial credits also registered significant increases, while tourismcredits recorded the lowest increase by 16.5% among all the sectors.

As regards composition of bank credits, trade had the largest share (23%), followedby other commercial credits (17%), miscellaneous sectors (16%), building (11%),transport (9%), agriculture (8%), tourism (7%), manufacturing (5%), and financialinstitutions (4%) in 2008.

Table-7 Sectoral Distribution of Bank Credits

Sectors Outstanding credits(Million Dalasi)

March-2008 March 2009

Annual GRin Mar 2009

(%)

Composition of bank credits(in percentage)

Mar-2008 Mar-2009Agriculture 178.507 296.65 66.2 6.7 7.9Fishing 16.268 19.156 17.8 0.6 0.5Manufacturing 99.959 176.846 76.9 3.7 4.7Building 286.313 398.95 39.3 10.7 10.7Transportation 253.027 322.375 27.4 9.5 8.6Trade 679.72 866.5 27.5 25.5 23.2Tourism 214.237 249.526 16.5 8.0 6.7Financial Inst. 84.225 135.869 61.3 3.2 3.6Other comm. 529.002 657.543 24.3 19.8 17.6Others 327.238 617.467 88.7 12.3 16.5Total credits 2668.496 3740.882 40.2 100.0 100.0

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8. Exchange Rate

During the last one year, the Dalasi depreciated against major international currenciestraded in the inter-bank market except the British Pound, reflecting the impact of theglobal financial crisis on remittances and tourism as well as increased demand forforeign exchange to meet the high cost of imports.

During 2009 also the Dalasi dad depreciated against major currencies in every monthuntil April 2009 over the corresponding month in 2008.

At the end of April 2009, Dalasi has appreciated against British Pound by 1.5% while itdepreciated by 32%, 19% , 11.6% and 9.8% against US$, CHF, Euro and CFArespectively over April 2008.

Table-8 Inter-bank exchange rates - end of period mid-market rates(Dalasi per uit of foreign currency)

Year Month UK US$ CHF Euro CFA(5000)

2008 Jan 44.27 22.34 19.91 32.89 252.85

Feb 42.58 21.88 19.57 32.28 243.98

Mar 40.87 19.46 19.15 30.83 239.16

Apr 39.52 20.12 19.16 31.43 235.95

May 40.25 20.64 19.46 32.1 245.84

June 40.77 20.65 189.27 32.07 245.51

July 41.65 20.94 19.9 32.21 251.05

Aug 40.73 21.37 20.08 32.23 249.47

Sept 41.65 23.12 19.86 33.02 249.30

Oct 40.49 24.89 20.15 32.89 258.09Nov 40.56 26.26 20.07 33.28 258.31

Dec 40.14 26.54 22.94 35.67 259.15

2009 Jan 37.25 26.07 20.85 33.52 262.81

Feb 37.38 26.11 22.04 33.6 257.78

Mar 38.18 26.38 23.31 35.22 259.30

Apr 38.94 26.56 22.8 35.07 259.13

May 40.20 26.78 22.75 36.09 256.38

Rate of appreciation (-) / depreciation (+) of Dalasiover the corresponding month in 2008 (%)

2009 Jan -15.9 16.7 4.7 1.9 3.9

Feb -12.2 19.3 12.6 4.1 5.7Mar -6.6 35.6 21.7 14.2 8.4

Apr -1.5 32.0 19.0 11.6 9.8

May -0.1 29.7 16.9 12.4 4.3

Source: Central Bank of Gambia (CBG)

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gambia monthly economic abstract may 2009

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