game theory “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. so is a lot” - albert einstein mike shor...
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Game Theory
“A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.
So is a lot”- Albert Einstein
Mike ShorLecture 10
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Mike ShorGame Theory & Business Strategy
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Incentive Schemes Salary and bonus contracts can
compensate for information asymmetry Often, this is unreasonable
Employees unwilling to assume risksContracts must be perfectly balancedMay be better to settle for low effort
Today: The flip side – are bonuses going to good
employees or just lucky ones? Signaling & screening
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A Horrible Disease A new test has been invented for a
horrible, painful, terminal disease
The disease is rare One in a million people are infected
The test is accurate 95% correct, 5% false positive/negative
You test positive! How worried are you?
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Bayes Rule
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Leakages
IBM Variable Pay Bonus of 10% of annual earnings if
“annual objectives are met in key areas”
Internal Memo:
“ We observe, across divisions, performance in line with expectations through about March. Performance declines consistently in later months.”
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Leakages If bonus is tied to
Increases over last yearReduce this year’s growth
Output / QuantityReduce quality
Average customer satisfactionReduce number of service calls
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Strategic Considerations
If bonus is tied to …
Market share
Firm profits
Industry profits
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Example
Pharmaceutical Development
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Goal: Align Research Labs’ Incentives
“ Strong resource devotion to select projects marginally increases the chance of success, but when considering the potential profitability of the post-patent market, it is clear that proper incentive alignment is essential.”
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Market Conditions
Patent races over high-profit pharmaceuticals worth up to $2 billion
Resource devotion ranges from twenty to sixty hours per employee, with staff of fifty per project (low level to high level)
Project time frame: 6 months
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Market Conditions
Independent labs contracted Average cost of labor: $16/hour
Chance of success: Minimally: 1% Maximally: 2.5%
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Cost Calculations
Extra cost to lab of high effort:
40 hours / week / employee
x 25 weeks time frame
x $16 / hour _
= $16,000 / employee
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To entice high effort Costs:
$16,000 per employee in costs
Benefits: 1½% extra chance of success (2½% - 1%)
Incentive compatibility:
.015 x bonus > $16,000
bonus > $1.1M
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To entice high effort
Bonus per employee must be greater than $1.1 million
Fifty employees, so total bonus must be greater than $55 million
Final conclusion $75 million bonus “to be safe”
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Extra Profit if it Works
Value of extra chance of success: 0.015 x $2B = $30M
Cost of bonus: 0.025 x $75M = $2M
Benefit of plan: $30M – $2M = $28M
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Problem Ignoring individual incentives
Analysis assuming that entire group works hard or does not
Quick & Dirty Check: If fifty people working hard increases chance of
success by 1.5%, each person, on average, increases chance by only 1.5%/50 = 0.03%
Each person earns a bonus of $75M/50 = $1.5M
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Conclusion
A person’s value of extra time:
$1.5M x 0.03% = $450
A person’s cost of extra time:
$16,000
NOT EVEN CLOSE!
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Signaling
Definition Using actions that other players would
interpret in a way that would favor you in the game play
Requires It is not in the best interest for people to
signal falsely Implies signaling must be costly!
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Auto Insurance
Half of the population are high risk drivers and half are low risk drivers
High risk drivers: 90% chance of accident
Low risk drivers: 10% chance of accident
Accidents cost $10,000
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Pooling
An insurance company can offer a single insurance contract
Expected cost of accidents:(½ .9 + ½ .1 )10,000 = $5,000
Offer $5,000 premium contract The company is trying to “pool”
high and low risk drivers Will it succeed?
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Self-Selection High risk drivers:
Don’t buy insurance: (.9)(-10,000) = -9KBuy insurance: = -5KHigh risk drivers buy insurance
Low-risk drivers:Don’t buy insurance: (.1)(-10,000) = -1KBuy insurance: = -5KLow risk drivers do not buy insurance
Only high risk drivers “self-select” into the contract to buy insurance
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Adverse Selection
Expected cost of accidents in population (½ .9 + ½ .1 )10,000 = $5,000
Expected cost of among the insured.9 (10,000) = $9,000Insurance company loss: $4,000
Cannot ignore this “adverse selection” If only going to have high risk drivers,
might as well charge more ($9,000)
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Screening
Offer two contracts, so that the customers self-select
One contract offers full insurance with a premium of $9,000
Another contract offers a deductible, and a lower premium
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How to Screen
Want to know an unobservable trait Identify an action that is more costly for
“bad” types than “good” types Ask the person (are you “good”?) But… attach a cost to the answer Cost
high enough so “bad” types don’t lie Low enough so “good” types don’t lie
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Screening
Education as a signaling and screening device
Is there value to education?
Good types: less hardship cost
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Example: MBAs How long should an MBA program be? Two types of workers:
High and low quality NPV of salary
high quality worker: $1.6Mlow quality worker: $1.0M
Disutility per MBA classhigh quality worker: $5,000low quality worker: $20,000
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“High” Quality Workers If I get an MBA:
Signal I am a high quality worker Receive $1,600,000 - $5,000 N
If I don’t get an MBA Signal I am a low quality worker Receive $1,000,000
1,600,000 – 5,000 N > 1,000,000
600,000 > 5,000N
120 > N
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“Low” Quality Workers If I get an MBA:
Signal I am a high quality worker Receive $1,600,000 - $20,000 N
If I don’t get an MBA Signal I am a low quality worker Receive $1,000,000
1,600,000 – 20,000 N < 1,000,000
600,000 < 20,000N
30 < N
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Hiding from Signals
The opportunity to signal may prevent some types from hiding their characteristics
Examples: Financial disclosures GPA on résumé Taking classes pass / fail
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Hiding from Signals Suppose students can take a course pass/fail or for a
letter grade.
An A student should signal her abilities by taking the course for a letter grade – separating herself from the population of B’s and C’s.
This leaves B’s and C’s taking the course pass/fail. Now, B students have incentive to take the course for a letter grade to separate from C’s.
Ultimately, only C students take the course pass/fail.
If employers are rational – will know how to read pass/fail grades. C students cannot hide!
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Summary
Enticing high effort is hard work Leakages Global vs. individual incentives Rewarding the right people
Screening Identify unobservable cost differences Exploit them (carefully)