gaming the forecast
DESCRIPTION
FEI IT, Seattle March 4, 2010. Gaming the Forecast. Leveraging Collective Intelligence for Real-Time, Accurate Forecasts. Mat Fogarty, CEO Crowdcast. Speaker Background. London School of Economics, Management Science Unilever, Finance Manager, CIMA UC Berkeley, MBA - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
Gaming the ForecastLeveraging Collective Intelligence for Real-Time, Accurate Forecasts
FEI IT, SeattleMarch 4, 2010
Mat Fogarty, CEOCrowdcast
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
Speaker Background
• London School of Economics, Management Science• Unilever, Finance Manager, CIMA• UC Berkeley, MBA• Electronic Arts, Director of FP&A• Founded Crowdcast in 2007• San Francisco, Venture backed
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
Crowd Forecast = Crowdcast• Forecasts are often subject to
bias, stickiness and gaming • Crowdcast leverages wisdom of
employee and partner crowd• Based on a prediction market• Produces unbiased, real time
forecasts of key metrics• Valuable for new products, key
projects, and external metrics
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
Costs of Poor Forecasts
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
What is a Prediction Market?• Based on stock market or
betting market• Aggregates knowledge of
diverse group• Players weight forecasts• Rewarded for early, accurate
predictions• Anonymous and meritocratic• Accurate players given more
weight over time
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
Actionable Intelligence
Intelligence Insight Action
Crowdcast Platform
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
Actionable Intelligence
Intelligence Insight Action
Crowdcast Platform
When will new product ship?
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
Actionable Intelligence
Intelligence Insight Action
Crowdcast Platform
When will new product ship?
“Supplier problems”
50% chance late
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
Actionable Intelligence
Intelligence Insight Action
Crowdcast Platform
When will new product ship?
“Supplier problems”
50% chance late
Change Supplier
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
Actionable Intelligence
Intelligence Insight Action
Crowdcast Platform
When will new product ship? “New
supplier rocks”
10% chance late
Change Supplier
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
Examples of Forecasts
New Products
Project Management
• When will the next milestone be complete?• How much will the project cost?• Will the project achieve its stated goal?
Industry Intelligence
• Will a regulation pass?• What will our market share be?• Will our competitor launch a competing product?
• When will the product launch?• What will be the product’s quality score?• Sales units in first 90 days?• Sales at $39 vs Sales at $49?
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
Use cases• 400 employees forecasting success of game
projects, 32% more accurate than official
• Panel of scientists and doctors predicting FDA decisions & sales, more accurate 86% of time
• Diverse team forecasting tech trends, demand, competitor actions and regulatory changes
• Employees and customer community forecasting success of new products
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
SCREENSHOTS
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
• Employee scans available forecasts and chooses one where he has special knowledge
•When will the Beta of the Tablet Computer launch?
Player – Select Question
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
• Employee chooses a range of likely outcomes •Weights forecasts with
virtual money• If correct, the bet will
payoff•All input is anonymous
Player – Enter Bet
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
•Why does the employee think this?•What is the underlying
reason and assumptions?
Player – Add Comments
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
• Leaderboard shows how accurate the players are, also which department is more accurate•Competition, bonuses and other
incentives encourage participation and accuracy
Player – Leaderboard
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
•How does the Crowdcast compare to the target?• Early warning of issues
Manager – Forecast Analytics
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
•Understand most likely outcome• Spread indicates range of
outcomes for analysis of risk
•Which teams are more optimistic / pessimistic about the metric
Manager – Forecast Analytics
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
•How has the forecast changed through time
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© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010
Complete solution
Software Services• Secure hosing• Market design• Training, deployment• User engagement strategy• Custom report and analytics