gary jones government finance division statistics department
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The Policy Relevance of the Government Finance Statistics Methodology Workshop on the Implementation and Links between the System of National Accounts, 2008 and the Government Finance Statistics Manual November 20–22, 2013 in Istanbul, Turkey . Gary Jones Government Finance Division - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Policy Relevance of the Government Finance Statistics Methodology
Workshop on the Implementation and Links between the System of National Accounts, 2008 and the Government Finance Statistics Manual
November 20–22, 2013 in Istanbul, Turkey
DISCLAIMER: This presentation represents the views of the authors and does not necessarily represent IMF views or IMF policy. The views expressed herein should be attributed to the authors and not to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.
Gary JonesGovernment Finance Division
Statistics Department
Government Finance Division, IMF Statistics Department 2
Government Finance Statistics Manual 1986 vs 2001/13
Classification StructureGFSM 1986• Based on analytic framework
– Inflow / outflow of cash– Repayable / nonrepayable– Requited / unrequited– Current / capital– Financial assets / liabilities– Public policy / liquidity
management– Outstanding debt
GFSM 2001• Based on analytic framework
– Transactions that change net worth
• Revenue• Expense
– Transactions in assets and liabilities
– Other economic flows– Balance sheet
IMF Statistics Department 3
OPENINGBALANCE
SHEET
NET WORTH
Nonfinancial Assets
Financial Assets
Liabilities
F L O W SCLOSINGBALANCE
SHEET
NET WORTH
Nonfinancial Assets
Financial Assets
Liabilities
TRANSACTIONS
Revenue
Expense
= NET OPERATING BALANCE
minus
Nonfinancial Assets
= NET LENDING /
BORROWING
minus
Liabilities
FinancialAssets• cash
• other financial assets
minus
OTHER ECONOMIC FLOWS
Holding Gains and Losses
Other Changes inVolume of Assets
Nonfinancial Assets
Financial Assets
Liabilities
Nonfinancial Assets
Financial Assets
Liabilities
CHANGE IN NET WORTH (HG)
CHANGE IN NET WORTH (OVC)
STOCKS STOCKS
4
Core Balances of the GFS System
• Multiple balancing items for transactions:– Net operating balance
• Balance of transactions affecting net worth• Closely related to System of National Accounts government saving
– Net lending/borrowing• Net operating balance minus transactions in nonfinancial assets
– Net cash inflow from operating activities• Balance of cash transactions affecting net worth
– Cash surplus/deficit• Net cash inflow from operating activities minus net cash outflow
from investments in nonfinancial assets
5
Other Analytic Measures
• Some other analytic measures for fiscal policy (see Box 4.1 in GFSM 2001)– Overall fiscal balance
• Net lending/borrowing minus acquisition of financial assets for policy purposes
– Overall primary balance• Overall fiscal balance plus net interest expense
– Net worth• Total stock of assets minus liabilities
– Net financial worth• Total stock of financial assets minus liabilities
6
What Lies Beneath:The Statistical Definition of Public Sector Debt
An Overview of the Coverage of Public Sector Debt for 61 Countries
Robert Dippelsman, Claudia Dziobek, and Carlos A. Gutiérrez Mangas (July 2012)
Staff Discussion Note (SDN)
7
Institutional Coverage
Beneath the surface of existing public sector debt statistics, lie inconsistencies and gaps:
• Many countries report only budgetary central government.• Some report central government (adding social security
funds and other extrabudgetary agencies).• General government is more comprehensive (add state and local
governments).• Fiscal risks may also come from PUBLIC CORPORATIONS -
financial or nonfinancial.• So, PUBLIC SECTOR would give the widest picture
(general government + corporations).
8
Instrument Coverage
• Narrowest coverage is debt securities and loans only. • Currency and deposits (C&D) and Special Drawing
Rights (SDRs) are also debt.• Other accounts payable (OAP) can be important, not
available from cash accounting systems, not the role of debt management office.
• Insurance, pensions, and standardized guarantee schemes (IPSGS) are not widely measured but can be a major source of hidden burden for governments– especially government employee pension obligations.– also mortgages, student loans, deposit guarantees
9
Classification of Instrument and Sectoral Coverage
* Insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes
Sectors/Subsectors
Debt Instruments
Cur &
de
p.
Othe
r Acc
Pa
yabl
e
10
A Unified Approach?
• Many developing countries only report D1 (responsibility of debt management office).
• Maastricht uses D2 (important omissions).– Eurostat requires wider measures, but not in Maastricht definition.– Maastricht is at face value.
• D3 requires accrual system (adds other accounts payable).– But crucial to monitor.– Other accounts payable is not the same as arrears.
• Only a few statistically advanced countries report values of D4.– Many report Insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee
schemes as zero, but may mean “no data” not “no liabilities.”
11
Does it Matter?
• Is Canadian government gross debt 40 percent of GDP?
• YES! (GL1/D1)
• Is Canadian government gross debt 110 percent of GDP?
• YES! (GL3/D4)
12
The Range of Gross Debt in Canada
1 Currently not included in GFSY. Source: Government Finance Statistics Yearbook (GFSY) 2011. International Financial Statistics (IFS) June 2011.
39.8 39.9 72.2
40.2 40.2 72.6
44.7 45.0 96.5
53.5 53.8 109.7
2011
13
Magnitude Difference between General and Central Government Gross Debt
Table 2. Size of Debt-related Risks Posed by the States, Provinces, and Local Governments to the Central Government
Difference between GL3 D1 and GL2 D1 for selected countries (percent of GDP)
Source: IMF Government Finance Statistics Yearbook 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: IMF Government Finance Statistics Yearbook 2012
14
Net debt and gross debt (% GDP)Consolidated General Government (GL3), 2011
Source: GFS Yearbook. These data may not be fully comparable across countries.
Debt (%GDP)
-50-30-101030507090
110130150
Australia
Austria
BelgiumCyp
rus
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Spain
SwedenTurke
y
United Kingdom
Gross Debt (%GDP) Net Debt (%GDP)