gary langer langer research associates [email protected]

Data Update:Yemen Baseline,

Afghanistan TrendsPart I of II

Center for Strategic and International StudiesApril 4, 2011

Gary LangerLanger Research Associates

[email protected]

Yemen project summaryBroadcasting Board of Governors surveyField work: D3 Systems/Yemen Polling

CenterDesign/Analysis: D3/Langer Research

AssociatesNational, area-probability sample1,112 face-to-face interviews Dec. 9-29,

201059 native Arabic-speaking interviewers, 10

field supervisorsAvg. 52-minute interview; 99 substantive

questions, 21 demographics, 28 QC-management

MOE +/-3 points at 95% confidence level

Presentation summaryYemenis’ evaluations of national institutions

and local conditionsPreferences for governanceRelevant personal characteristics, interests

and informationIndices of disaffection and engagementAimed at understanding of key elements of

public sentiment in Yemen – essential for effective engagement/communication

A few basics73% have monthly HH income <60K rials (<$280)59% no more than intermediate school education;

includes 37% w/ no formal education 29% illiterate62% of men are unemployed (38%) or self-employed

(24%)35% have no power line electricity, inc. half w/

generator access, half with no power whatsoeverPop. is 71% rural84% reside in North YemenAttitudinally…

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

39% 38%35%

30%

Excellent/good

Performance RatingsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

39% 38%35%

30%35%

32%

16%

48%

26%29%

48%

22%

Excellent/good Fair/Poor Don't Know


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

39% 38%35%

30%35%

32%

16%

48%

10%13%

37%

7%

41%44%

59%

35%

Excellent/good Fair/PoorDon't know (men) Don't know (women)


Men More Negative (DKs percentaged out)

Men Women Pos-Neg Pos-Neg Central gov’t 50-50 0 57-43 +14District gov’t 35-65 -30 43-57 -14Police 47-53 -6 64-36 +28Army 68-32 +48 70-30 +40

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

80%

12%8%

FavorableUnfavorableNo opinion

Saleh FavorabilitySource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

North Yemen South Yemen0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

85%

41%

10%

28%

6%

31%

FavorableUnfavorableNo opinion

Saleh Favorability by RegionSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Better Same Worse No opinion

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

48%

20% 19%14%

Life a year from now...Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

39% 40%

20%

Yemen is headed…

Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Negative groupsMen:

52% “wrong direction” vs. 28% among women; “right direction” 34% vs. 44%.

“Life worse” 23% among men, 14% among women.Elders:

“Life better” 38% among 50+ vs. 53% among <25. (Similar by sex.)

“Right direction” 43% among younger men vs. 30% among men 50+.

South Yemen: “Wrong track” 69% vs. 35% in the North; “life better”

38% vs. 50%.

Better No effect Worse No opinion0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

14%

40%

24% 22%

Chart TitleEffect of Complaining About a Gov’t Official


Economic _x000d_oppor

tunities

Infrastructure Medical care Clean water Availability_x000d_ of food

Security0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

12%

33%36%

48%

74%

81%82%

64% 64%

52%

26%

18%

Good Bad

Ratings of Local ConditionsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Strong leader Islamic state Democracy0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

16%

25%

54%

Chart TitlePreferred Form of GovernmentSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

61%58%

53%

65%

47%

62% 61%

50%

MenWomen

Men <25

Men >25North South

UrbanRural

Preference for Democracy by GroupsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Strictly Not strictly0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

39%

44%

Gov’t Follow Islamic PrinciplesSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Very

Somewhat

83%

6%

Young men Older men Young women Older women0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

30%41%

47%36%

58%45% 31%

36%

Very Somewhat86%

Follow Islamic Principles - GroupsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

88%

78%72%

Pray 5x a day Attend mosque regularly "Strong believer"0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

55%

39%

16%

79%

55%

25%

88%

1%

23%

Young menOlder menWomen

ReligiositySource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Influenced by friends Influenced by_x000d_domestic media

Influenced by_x000d_international

media

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

77%

43%

33%

69%

34%

25%

Young men Older men

Influences on OpinionsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Religious matters

Local events

Yemen events

World events

U.S. policies

Western culture

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

83%

72%

49%

28%

10%5%

87%

73%

60%

31%

10%4%

Informed about Interested in

Interest/Information LevelsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Not interested in world events

Not interested at all in Yemen events

Not informed at all about U.S. polices

Not interested in Arab policies

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

69%

28%

62%

43%

59%

17%

49%

30%

Young men Older men

Interest/Info., Younger/Older MenSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

United States Saudi Arabia Al Qaeda0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

6%

75%

1%

75%

16%

84%

18%

10%16%

Favorable Unfavorable No opinion

Favorability RatingsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Household m

...

Religious l

ea...

Friends

Community el...

Yemeni new

s

Politica

l lea..

.

Internatio

nal...

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

29% 31%42%

26% 26%19% 19%

56%44% 22%

9% 6%7% 4%

Very Somewhat

75%

Influences on OpinionsSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors

85%

65%

34% 32%25% 23%

Disaffection Index Engagement IndexCombination of (α=.85):

Ratings of the work of: central gov’t, district gov’t, police, army

Favorability ratings of: gov’t in general, parliament, Saleh

Satisfaction with progress toward system of rules

Effect of complaining about a gov’t official

Variables recoded, inc. intensity, and standardized so that higher scores = more disaffection

Had to answer at least 5 of the 9 questions to get a score

Combination of (α=.94): Interest in/informed about:

governorate events, Yemen events, world events, Arab country policies, U.S. policies, Yemen culture, Arab culture, Western culture

Interest in news about: Yemen, Arab, Europe, U.S.

Variables recoded, inc. intensity, and standardized so that higher scores = greater engagement.

Had to answer at least 8 of the 20 questions in order to get a score.

Disaffection Index Engagement Index

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Young men Older men Women

Disaffection and Engagement Indices


Disaffection: Young men/older men n.s.; men/women < .001. Engagement: Young men/older men marginally sig.; men/women < .001.


-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

North Yemen South Yemen

p < .001

n.s.

Disaffection/Engagement - RegionSource: Broadcasting Board of Governors


-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Urban Rural

n.s.

p < .001

Disaffection/Engagement: Urban/Rural



Low disaffection (0-2 Qs neg.) All 57% Men 47% Women 67%

Moderate disaffection (3-5 neg.) All 23% Men 24% Women 22%

High disaffection (6-9 neg.) All 20% Men 29% Women 11%

Low engagement (0-5 Qs pos.) All 55% Men 39% Women 71%

Moderate engagement (6-13 pos.) All 34% Men 42% Women 25%

High engagement (14-20 pos.) All 11% Men 19% Women 4%

Take-awaysSignificant levels of disaffection, skepticism of gov’tBroad, deep economic discontent, development

needsMajority support for democracy, higher among men

–guided by strict Islamic principlesInward-looking society, low info./interest beyond

localBroad, deeply suspicions of the United StatesFamily, friends, associates and religious leaders are

the prime levers of influenceAny approach should be Yemen-centric

Data Update:Yemen Baseline,

Afghanistan TrendsPart I of II

Center for Strategic and International StudiesApril 4, 2011

Gary LangerLanger Research Associates

[email protected]

gary langer langer research associates [email protected]

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